AP Statistics

COURSE OUTLINE & PACING GUIDE

TOPIC 1: EXPLORING DATA

(8 days- Goals 1 through 4, however this material is reviewed and applied repeatedly
throughout the course.)
Textbook reference: TPS Chapters 1-3

Goal 1: The learner will explore categorical data.

Objectives:
Construct frequency tables and bar graphs.
Construct two-way tables and segmented bar graphs.
Calculate marginal and joint frequencies from this Data using the information
garnered to interpret meaning of statistical data in contextual situations.
Compare distributions using both bar charts and segmented bar graphs and write an
appropriate analysis of the information.

Goal 2: The leaner will construct and interpret graphical displays of univariate data.
Objectives:
Construct plots from the data, including dotplot, stemplot, histogram, cumulative
frequency plot with and without the TI-84 plus (including the used the Stat Editor
and StatPlot functions).
Find center and spread, clusters, gaps, probable outliers, and shape from graph.
Determine best graph to used based on shape of distribution.

Goal 3: The learner will apply numerical measurements to summarize distributions.

Objectives:
Calculate center (median and mean), spread (range, interquartile range and
standard deviation), and position (quartiles, percentiles, standardized scores) with
the TI-84 plus (including 1-var stat function and boxplot.)
Examine the effect of changing units of measure on summary measures.
Determine best measures to be used based on shape of distribution.
Write analysis of summary statistics using shape, center and spread, and outliers.

Goal 4: The leaner will compare distributions of univariate data pictured graphically.
Objectives:
Write comparative statements about sets of data from both within the set and
between multiple sets using information garnered from Goal 2, (shape, center and
spread, and outliers).
Determine best measures to use for distributions based on shape and spread of
distributions, especially the middle 50% of the data.

Goal 5 (8 days): The learner will explore bivariate data.

Objectives:
Analyze graphical displays of bivariate data, discussing form, direction, strength
and deviations.
 Analyze data numerically for determination of form, direction, strength and
deviations (correlation.)
Calculate the equation of the linear sets of data.
Determine linearity using graphical displays and numerical calculations (residual
plots, residual values, correlation, outliers and influential points.).
Use the TI-84 plus to calculate descriptive numerical calculations for bivariate
data and to create graphs of this data.

TOPIC 2: SAMPLING AND EXPERIMENTATION

(7 days- Goals 6 through 9)
Textbook reference: TPS chapter 4

Goal 6: The learner will examine methods of data collection.

Objectives:
Determine the typed of collection method used to gather data; census, variety of
types of sampling, variety of types experiments and observational studies.

Goal 7: The learner will study concepts needed to plan and conduct survey.
Objectives:
Learn the characteristics of a well-designed and well-conducted survey, including
but not limited to the wording of questions and the appearance interviewer.
Determine the population to be studied, the method to be used to randomly select
a sample, and possible sources of bias.
Identify the type of sampling method to be used for best results in a survey:
simple random sampling, stratified random sampling, and cluster sampling.
Randomly select a sample from a defined population (this is part of the project to
be conducted at the end of the year).
Write a description of the process followed to correctly design a survey,
including but not limited to the process used to acquire a random sample.

Goal 8: The learner will study concepts needed to plan and conduct experiments.
Objectives:
Learn the characteristics of a well-designed and well-conducted experiment,
including treatments, control groups, experimental units, random assignment and
replication.
Conduct a group experiment where all aspects of a well-designed experiment are
discussed and incorporated into the activity and then carried out.
Determine sources of bias and/or confounding that may cause results of the
experiment to be unreliable, including used of placebos and blind and double-
blind methods.
Design experiments using the methods of complete randomization, randomized
block design and matched pairs designs.
Write a description of the complete process used in designing an experiment.
Goal 9: The learner will apply generalize the results and types of conclusions that
can be drawn from observational studies, experiments, and surveys and be
able to explain this generalization in written form.
Objectives:
Explain how undercoverage, nonresponse, and question wording can lead to bias
in a survey.
Determine the scope of inference for a statistical study.

TOPIC 3: ANTICIPATING PATTERNS

(35 days-Goals 10 through 13)
Textbook reference: TPS chapters 5-7

Goal 10: The learner will explore random phenomena using probability.
Objectives:
Interpret probability, including long-run relative frequency interpretation.
Analyze expected outcomes using the Law of Large Numbers.
Perform probability calculations using addition and multiplication rules,
conditional probability and rules for independence.
Calculate probabilities for discrete random variables and their probability
distributions, including binomial and geometric distributions.
Simulate data based on random behavior and probability distributions, including
the use of the TI-84 plus application Prob Sim.
Calculating expected value and standard deviation of a random variable, including
by TI-84, plus functions, and transforming random variables linearly.

Goal 11: The learner will calculate probabilities for independent random variables.
Objectives:
Determine the independence of a random variable distribution.
Calculate mean and standard deviation for sums and differences of independent
random variables.

Goal 12: The learner will apply the probability of the normal distribution.
Objectives:
Learn the properties of the normal distribution.
Use tables and TI-84 plus calculator functions, normcdf and invnorm, to find
probability values for normal distributions.
Use the normal distribution as a measure to describe data.

Goal 13: The learner will apply the probability of sampling distributions.
Objectives:
Apply the concept of sampling distributions to calculate probabilities involving a
sample proportion, the difference between two independent sample proportions, a
sample mean and the difference between two sample means.
Apply the Central Limit Theorem.
 Use simulation techniques and the TI-84 plus calculator to simulate sampling
distributions.
Apply probability calculations to both distributions and Chi-square distributions.

TOPIC 4: STATISTICAL INFERENCE

(28 days- Goals 14 &15)
Textbook reference: TPS chapters 8-11

Goal 14: The learner will use statistical inference to estimate confidence intervals.
Objectives:
Estimate population parameters and margins of error.
Use properties of point estimators, including bias and variability.
Analyze confidence intervals explaining the meaning of the confidence level and
interval.
Calculate large sample confidence intervals for a proportion and the difference
between two proportions, both with and without the TI-84 plus confidence
interval functions.
Calculate confidence intervals for a mean and the difference between two means,
both with and without the TI-84 plus confidence interval functions.
Calculate confidence intervals for the slope of a least-squares regression line, both
with and without the TI-84 plus confidence interval functions.
Analyze the results of a confidence interval and put the analysis in written form.

Goal 15: The learner will use statistical inference with tests of hypothesis.
Objectives:
Apply the logic of significance tests with regard to hypotheses, p-values, and one-
and two- sided tests.
Determine the Type I and Type II errors involved in specific application
problems.
Determine the accuracy of results based on the concept of power.
Calculate the results of significance testing for large sample proportions and the
difference between two proportions, for a mean and the difference between two
means, Chi-square goodness of fit, homogeneity of proportions, and independence
for one- and two-way tables, and the slope of a least-squares regression line, both
with and without the TI-84 plus calculator functions.
Analyze the results of significance tests and put the analysis in written form.

Goal 16 (10 days): The learner will review all materials taught in this course in
preparation for the AP Exam.

Goal 17 (15 days): The learner will present results of statistical project to members of
the AP class and will explore the use of statistics in careers.

The balance of the days will be used for Formal Mid-term and Term Examinations.