Running head: ACT SCORES FORECAST: FINAL PROJECT

CINNCINATI CLEANING SOLUTIONS: FINAL PROJECT

Sullivan University

ECO510: Managerial Economics

Instructor: Jeff Johnson

TEAM:

Alejandro Suarez
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Introduction

Kentuckiana's contract cleaning company. We are headquartered in Louisville,

Kentucky with branch operations throughout Kentucky and Southern Indiana including

New Albany, Shelbyville, Shepherdsville and Lexington. FMS brings over 800+

dedicated workers and 75 years of contract cleaning management to your service. If you

seek a professional and committed partner to assist in managing your facility you have

found them. We support our local business partners and the ongoing business

development of our communities through our membership in the local chambers of

commerce.

Effective Training Program

o required orientations

o FMS University

o on-site training

o continuing education

Pre-hire Assessment
o applicant profile

o drug testing

o local/national backgrounds

o orientation

Leadership Presence
o high ratio of leaders to front-line team members

o positive, regular employee and customer engagement

o simple, effective accountability program

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o regular rewards and incentives for a job well done

Employee-Focused Organization
o innovative self-improvement opportunities

o generous benefit program

o strong company value system

Locally Owned/Family Business

o active, present ownership

o over 60% of leadership hired from within

o open organization that values all voices

o strong contributor to our communities

Mission:

FMS will create a working environment that inspires all team members to fulfill our commitments, to act
kindly, and to contribute to the success of our customers, our peers, ourselves, and our communities.

Customer Commitment:

FMS operates from the belief that good, properly trained, and appreciated people lead to happy
customers and long-term success.

Employee Philosophy:

To provide the leadership, resources and atmosphere needed for individuals to succeed, and for our
company to thrive. This includes providing: one-on-one training; continuous development; a safe work
environment; equal opportunity; a climate open to new ideas; and opportunity for growth.

SERVICES OFFERED
We are proud to offer professionally trained employees and managers to provide the following services to
you and your company. We service over 10 million square feet of space every day.

> Contract Cleaning

If you want trained workers, a simple, effective quality program, local management and a company that
works hard every day to enhance our team members' experience we are the organization for you.
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Banks
Class A
Education
Government
Health and Fitness
Heavy Manufacturing
Light Industrial
Medical
Multi-Tenant
Libraries
Multi-Chain
Retail

>Construction Cleaning

FMS specializes in construction cleaning. Since 2004, FMS Construction Cleaning has successfully
cleaned over 250 facilities, ranging from 5000 sq. ft. to 1.2 million square feet on budget and by deadline.
We have prepared stadiums, high-rises, hotels, hospitals, restaurants, retail stores, and numerous other
types of facilities for inspections and turn over.

Currently, we employ 30+ construction cleaners with years of experience. We utilize our proprietary
operations protocols and procedures and have dedicated management to execute at your facility. Our
team members have OSHA 10 certification and leadership has OSHA 30 certification.

If youre looking for a serious, professional, qualified company, weve got the team for you.

> Floor Maintenance

We specialize in restoring and maintaining resilient flooring. We use high quality Johnson and P&G floor
finishes to protect and beautify your flooring surface. We can provide the following floor services:

New Construction
One Time Services
Periodic Buffing
Propane Burnishing
Scheduled Maintenance
Scrub and Recoat
Strip and Wax
Wood Floor Restoration

> Carpet and Upholstery Cleaning

We employ full-time, trained and certified carpet technicians. We operate two truck mounted steam
extraction units, numerous portable extractors and bonnet scrubbers. Our method of service is tailored to
your specific facility need.
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> Power Washing

We employ trained technicians utilizing truck mounted and portable power washers. Loading dock
cleaning, sidewalk and entry cleaning, drive aprons, decks and exterior commercial buildings are our
specialty.

> Emergency Water Restoration and Drying

FMS will assist you in restoring your facility after flooding. We employ technicians to extract water,
remove debris, dry out (including demo) and perform mold remediation. Additionally, our trained staff will
set up dehumidifiers, air movers and air scrubbers and chemically treat your affected areas.

> Window Cleaning

FMS performs professional window cleaning of commercial buildings. We self-perform most of our
window cleaning, utilizing a group of experienced FMS team members. Over the years, weve saved our
customers tens of thousands of dollars and provided crystal clear windows time after time.

> Temporary Labor

FMS can provide uniformed, fully trained and supervised laborers for cleaning, mowing and grounds
keeping, light industrial and general labor. We can bring folks to your work site and pick them up.

> Consumable Supply and Management

We can provide you with toilet tissue, paper towels, trash liners, hand soap, carts, mats, trash cans and
just about any other item that your facility may need. We set up your account on a routine ordering and
delivery schedule to meet your and we maintain your inventory for you.

Identify the question you are trying to answer or problem you are trying to

understand.
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Give the organizational context and your motivation for this particular project.

Why did you choose it, and why should it matter to this organization? Interview at least

one manager at the organization for their perspective on this issue and how it

contributes to the organizations ability to perform its mission. If you are using a

public data set, the same requirements apply. How does this issue affect an

organization? 10% of the total project grade.

Problem: In this paper we will examine students performance in ACT scores in relation to key

factor identified by our team. In addition, this study intends to advance the

Statistical methodology of local regression analysis through a case study analyzing predictor

variables of American College Test (ACT) score for public high schools in Jefferson County,

Kentucky.

Question: How deeply related is the correlation of factors to actual scores, and if so

proven how we can help future advancement in the education segments.

Why did you choose it, and why should it matter to this organization:

The significance of placement test is outsized by how much a student can obtain out of college, in

term of assistance, and placement. This significance is undermined by key factors determined in

this research. For Jefferson Co. Public Schools understating this key elements and relevance can

greatly improve performance in other schools with less or more variation in average scores.

According to Clive R. Belfield (2012):

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Placement Tests Colleges typically use placement tests as a binary indicator:

does a student require developmental education, or is the student ready for

college-level courses in a particular subject? If a student achieves a certain score

on the placement test, that student is considered college-ready.(p.2)

Unfavorably, the validity of placement tests depends on how the results are interpreted and the

actual pass rate or cutoff score that colleges apply, how that rate is interpreted, and what a

college believes is needed for college-level courses. Also, developmental education is often not

binary; there are different levels and numbers of courses in developmental education sequences.

Therefore, it is the use of placement tests we are investigating rather than the tests themselves.

Interview at least one manager at the organization for their perspective:

Background research on how other organizations and/or researchers have modeled

this issue. Why this issue is important. Expect to do academic/library research in the

business literature and trade journals from the industry or field in question. Explain

very carefully what has been done and how successful it was at other organizations.

20%

Why this issue is important:

Even though we could argue that some local school districts have fairly poor income

level but reach good scores in ACT. Or, whether or not the influence of parents becomes the
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drive students need to achieve better scores, we are looking to find precisely the relation. Income

becomes a hard variable and in this matter many authors had decided to throw in their two cents.

According to Oreopoulos, P. (2003): Perhaps the most intuitive explanation by which

neighborhoods affect outcomes is through peer group or role model effects. In other words thus

continuing the explanation of this social phenomena is the flock effect. Some students adapt to

the circumstances, adopt problems from each other for the negative or the positive. Its not a

spectacle that richer neighborhoods produce higher ACT scores, this social interaction

interchanges paths from their neighborhoods, to the test results.

Background

In a study made by Xiaomin Qiu and Shuo-sheng Wu in 2011 for the state of Missouri

some interesting results was achieved. Global and Local Regression Analysis of Factors of

American College Test (ACT) Score for Public High Schools in the State of Missouri was the

title of the research and it indeed proved a deep relation of key factors. In this article, parent

education level, also there was a correspondence between ACT scores and income level very

obvious. We should expect similar correlations in this document given the information and

analyzing results in our article. At the end, this study helped the state of Missouri better allocate

educational resources to localities in need of reinforcement, and discontinue heavy support to

areas where no further improvement was needed.

Based on your research and course reading, identify the appropriate quantitative technique

to use for analysis for this project. Explain why this is the correct method to use. This may
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be from regression analysis, forecasting, probabilistic modeling, or linear programming.

Other techniques may be used only with instructors approval. 10%

Application of Statistical analysis for ACT scores projection: Practical use

Collection of suitable quantitative data and models

We found regression analysis and Crystal Ball predictor as the appropriate technique for

our analysis. We have analyzed the data and found that the Act scores from both schools to be

the independent variable.

We picked X, Y, Z as the dependent variables. So we ran a regression analysis to find

the co-relation between these variables. The reason we felt multiple regression might be a good

quantitative technique as there seemed to be a relationship between these variables and we felt

we could use these variables to predict the forecast for the year 2017. Later on to come up with
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the Act Forecast for the year 2017 we ran a multiple regression using X. We found these three

variables having a relationship and we felt that X could be used to predict the Act scores.

Appropriate quantitative technique to use for analysis for this project:

We decided to use regression to predict the right forecasting technique for predicting the

X. As we felt the X was a dependent variable for forecasting the Act scores and Y. Hence we ran

SPSS linear regression for each of the models. Based on the right forecasting method Based on

the forecast of X occupied we could do a regression forecast to determine the act scores, using

which we decided to arrive at the comparison of act scores per school intended in the study.

True to our expectations we could use the above forecasting techniques to arrive at an

optimal forecast for, Act scores utilizing X, Y, Z variables for the Year 2017.

Identification of data

When we established the data for the year 2016 for parameters available, X, Y, Z, we had

to make sense of this data to arrive at a dependable forecast for the Act scores, a suitable

comparison and forecast for the year 2017.

To forecast the Act scores for 2017 we had to run a regression using these parameters.

We had to select relevant data and analyze it to arrive at relevant results. We decided to use this

data for multiple regression analysis.

To arrive at the forecast for the X for the year 2017, we decide to use the data to run it

through Crystal Ball Predictor to arrive at the forecast for the next 12 months of the year. We are

enclosing sample snapshot of the sorted and cleaned data in the Appendix.
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Analysis of the data and discussion of results

We initially ran multiple regression on the all variables for each of the Act scores as the

independent variable and the other parameters as dependent variables. We found a relationship

between X, Y, Z and Act scores as the p value was less than 0.05. We found the regression

model to be significant with R square value of 0.00000.

(INSERT REGRESSION MODEL ______MALE VS EASTER HIGH)

REWORK FORMULA

The relationship is

Act scores= CONSTANT + 0.0000 * X + 0.000 * Y - 0.000* Z

To forecast Act scores we had to forecast Z. Having found a relationship between Act

scores and X, Y, we decided to find the relationship between X Y and Z.

We ran multiple regression between act scores as independent variable X Y Z. We found

the model to be significant with R square of 0.0000. We found that the act scores was dependent

on only total X with p less than 0.05.

The regression equation is

Z=CONSTANT + 0.000 *X
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After having arrived at the relationships we had to find out the Y linkage. We ran a third

regression on Y, X available and X. We found a relationship. The model was significant with R

square of 0.000

Y = CONSTANT + 0.000 *X + 0.000 * Z

Lastly we had to forecast the X occupied using Crystal Ball predictor. We ran crystal Ball

Predictor for X to arrive at the optimal forecasting method and Forecast.

Ethical implications

Results obtained vs. Research

Conclusion

REFERENCES
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Oreopoulos, P. (2003). The Long-Run Consequences of Living in a Poor Neighborhood.

Quarterly Journal Of Economics, 118(4), 1533.

Qiu, X. (2011). Global and Local Regression Analysis of Factors of American College

Test (ACT) Score for Public High Schools in the State of Missouri. Annals Of The Association

Of American Geographers, 101(1), 63-83.