ADVANCE RESEARCH

METHODOLOGY

Increase in Consumption of Cigarettes: A study of Karachi

CONDUCTED BY: Syed Faraz Abbas

Rizvi

REG # 2628

FACILITATOR: DR. AYUB MEHAR

 Abstract

The objective of this research is to determine the effects of education level on consumption of cigarettes in
Karachi. It has been observed that consumption of smoking tobacco is rapidly growing in Pakistan therefore I
have decided to find out the major reason that causes increase in consumption of smoking tobacco. The
sample are n = 100, who participate in tobacco consumption, they have different level of education, it has
been found in result that there is dependency between tobacco smoking consumption and education level
because consumption of smoking tobacco increases if education level is low. Therefore it is concluded that
there is dependency between consumption and education level. There was a positive association between
tobacco use and rural area of residence, male gender and low education levels. Low education could be a
proxy for low awareness and consumer information on tobacco products.
INTRODUCTION:
Background

Non communicable diseases accounted for an estimated 33.4 million deaths worldwide in the year 2002; of
these, 72% occurred in the developing countries. Non-communicable diseases and injuries are amongst the
top ten causes of mortality and morbidity in Pakistan; estimates indicate that they account for approximately
25% of the total deaths within the country. The most prevalent mode of tobacco use in Pakistan is smoking.
Smoking is an established risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Smoking is the single
biggest modifiable risk factor for chronic disease. There are 1.1 billion smokers worldwide, 800 million
smokers in developing countries. By 2030 tobacco is expected to be the single biggest cause of death
worldwide, accounting for about 10 million deaths per year. It is pertinent to point out here that due to tighter
regulations and increased taxes in Western countries, tobacco industry has shifted its focus to developing
countries like Pakistan. Aggressive marketing strategies of the tobacco industry have lead to rise in tobacco
use in low income countries.
Factors which predispose the population to the risk of tobacco use need to be found out and preventive
strategies devised accordingly.

Purpose of the study:

I am conducting research to find the impact of education level on the consumption of smoking tobacco
(cigarettes). I also want to see that it is helpful in preventing and reducing the usage of tobacco in Pakistan. I
considered different places of Karachi.

Scope of study:
The scope of study is not very large due to the shortage of time. We are taking different areas of Karachi for
our study. We selected Karachi because it has huge population. And people belong to every part of Pakistan
found in Karachi. And we can find poor and rich all kind of communities in Karachi. We will cover different
areas of Karachi like Gulshan-e-Iqbal, Shahra-e Faisal, Gulistan-e-Johar, and F.B. Area.

Hypothesis
H: Increase in Consumption of Smoking Tobacco depends on level of education.

Literature Review:
Tobacco use is a major public health problem of Pakistan and the burden of Tobacco use is greater among
the poor. Pakistan has a population of 160 million. Of 22-25 million smokers, around 36% of adult males and
9% adult females are tobacco users, giving a male to female ratio of 4:1 (National Health Survey 1994). The
study tells that the prevalence of smoking is increasing among young Pakistanis, the health, economic and
social impacts of this habit must be elucidated to counter the powerful advertising influences of the tobacco
companies persuading the young to become their life-long customers. However, an operational strategies and
continue to work with a solid cause of concern is the narrowing of this gender recognition and commitment
to the health aspirations of difference in younger smokers the future generations in Pakistan.

In Pakistan about 60,000 people die annually from tobacco usage according to the 1999 tobacco-related
diseases. The finding of Pakistan Health Education Survey 2008 prevalence of cigarette smoking increases
with age and is higher in rural than in urban areas.

To address this problem, the Federal Ministry of Health has recently launched a tobacco control program.
The Government of Pakistan has start promulgated the Prohibition of Smoking and Protection of Non
Smokers Health Ordinance 2002. These activities have been backed by print and electronic media
interventions to raise awareness of the Ordinance.

Many Non-Governmental Organizations- NGOs are already actively involved in the tobacco control efforts
of the Ministry of Health including Network of Consumer Protection, Heart File, The Aga Khan University,
Cancer Society, Pakistan Medical Association, Pakistan Chest Society and Cardiac Society. These NGOs
from time to time organize public awareness programmers on tobacco and its hazards.

On the other hand we see that Tobacco advertising in the electronic and print media is very common and so
is the sponsorship of musical concerts and sporting events. Public awareness about tobacco and its hazards is
very poor. There are only few hospitals based smoking cessation clinics operating in the country. Very little
attempt has been made for tobacco prevention at the community level.

The following social cost impact problem will be under taken in our research plan:

 The burden of tobacco use is greater among the poor.

 Taxation system enhancing consumption among the poor as more brands enlisted among the low cost
category.

 Teen-age children and youth aggressively targeted by industry

  Gender gap in tobacco use diminishing at a high pace.

 Tobacco consumption contributing to poverty in view of its high burden on the low income of the
poor

 Use of non-cigarette tobacco products growing in the society

The research will be cover above points and other relevant studies will be conducted to analyze its hazards.

Objectives of research:
1. To determine the effects of education level on consumption of cigarettes.

2. To assess the prevalence of tobacco in various places of Karachi or to find the perception of people
about usage of tobacco products.

3. To find the views of Smokers or tobacco user who intend to quit smoking tobacco/smokers who have
tried to give up smoking.

Research Methodology:
Target population

The population of my research is the smokers.

a) Hypotheses:

H: Increase in Consumption of cigarettes depends on low level of Education.

b) Data Required

The analysis is based on a two-stage sampling and in which we get the data related to the level of
education of our sample and per day consumption of cigarettes.

c) Sources of data
The data source is four different zones of Karachi from where I have collected data and in which the
residents were asked to inform their per day consumption.

d) How to collect data

 The data collected of cigarette consumption has been collected from smokers and non smokers, and from
the total participants smokers’ data is excluded, which includes four towns Gulistan-e-Johar, F.B Area,
Gulshan-e-Iqbal.

For data collection the tool used is of Questionnaire, in which I asked participants randomly about their
age, education level and their per day consumption of cigarettes.

e) Statistical Techniques
The SPSS software has help us in the solution of research calculation. The Regression test has been used
to test the hypothesis because my objective of research was that “To determine the effects of low
education on consumption of cigarettes” at significance level of 95%.

Components of the questionnaire were compiled with the use of previously validated questions, age,
education, consumption…. It was ensured that all questions had face validity; questions were clear, non-
ambiguous and fair.
Specific question regarding tobacco use was, "Whether you were using tobacco products," "Whether you
were using tobacco products daily," "Type of tobacco product," "currently smoking or not," and "Oral
tobacco used or not." "Exposed to other people's smoke," "anyone smoke in your presence." The
questionnaire was translated into Urdu and back translated in to English, ensuring consistency in phrasing of
questions. The survey was carried out in Urdu language.

Data Analysis
Statistical analysis involved summarizing data values two variable under study in relation to cigarettes
consumption. Variable of interest such as per day consumption of cigarettes and educational level were put in
the regression model and later on linear regression method was used to test the relationship between
variables. The level of statistical significance was p < 0.05.

In order to calculate percentage tobacco consumption for each level of education, cross tabulation were used.

Research design
The research will start with literature review, which will serve as secondary data. With the accumulated
understanding a questionnaire will be developed which will be use in our survey as well and it will be work
as research tool.

Data collection method

Data will be collected through face-to-face interviews with the help of structured questionnaire and also from
other research sources and newspaper’s articles, various websites and research will be focus on updated info,
which would be helpful and fulfill the requirement of objective mentioned above. The interviewer will fill
the questionnaire. The respondent will be the matured people including man women. Age group would be 15
plus.

Sampling Method
The sampling strategy involved into two broad categories users of Tobacco- smoking and smokeless tobacco.
Both uses of tobacco are very common in Pakistan, so this include both man & women category users and
non user of Tobacco also involve in filling the questioner regarding their views about anti-Tobacco
activities..
Sample size
The sample size is approximately 100 all will be from different areas of Karachi.

Output
Regression:

Variables Entered/Removedb

Variables Variables
Model Entered Removed Method
1 What is
your level
a
. Enter
of study
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: On average, how
many cigarettes do you smoke every day

The above table tells us about the dependent variable i.e. Consumption of cigarettes and independent
variables i.e. level of education is entered for the analysis as we selected the Enter method.
 Model Summary

Adjusted Std. Error of

Model R R Square R Square the Estimate
1 .404a .163 .155 1.20910
a. Predictors: (Constant), What is your level of study

This table gives us the R-value, which represents the correlation between the observed values and predicted
values of the dependent variable consumption of cigarettes.

R-Square is the coefficient of Determination which gives the adequacy / accuracy of the model. In model-1
it is .1630 it means that the independent variable can predict the dependent variable by 16.30%.

Here the value of Adjusted R-Square is 0.155 that means the independent variable in the model can predict
15.5% of the variance in dependent variable. Adjusted R-Square gives the more accurate information about
the model fitness if one can further adjust the model by his own.

ANOVAb

Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 27.971 1 27.971 19.133 .000a
Residual 143.269 98 1.462
Total 171.240 99
a. Predictors: (Constant), What is your level of study
b. Dependent Variable: On average, how many cigarettes do you smoke every day

F-value in this case is 19.133 and the p-value is given by 0.000 which is less that 0.05 therefore I can say
that R-square is significant.
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The above table gives constant ‘α’ 3.849 under Unstandardized coefficients column and coefficient ‘β’
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Now we test our hypothesis, we see that the p-value for regression coefficient of consumption of cigarettes is
given by 0.000, which is less than 0.05; therefore null hypothesis is rejected so that I can say the regression
coefficient is not zero and there is dependency between two research variables that are consumption of
cigarettes and level of education.

Case Processing Summary

Cases
Valid Missing Total
N Percent N Percent N Percent
Level of study * On
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consumption of
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Conclusion & Recommendations:

There was positive association between tobacco use and low education levels. Low education could be a
proxy to low awareness and consumer information on tobacco products.

• We should inform the adverse health consequences of tobacco use to the illiterates by community based
health education programs and counter advertisement for tobacco use through mass media particularly radio
and television.

• Tobacco control strategies in Pakistan should aggressively target cigarette smoking as well as oral tobacco
use.

• Family members need to show extreme caution by not smoking in closed rooms in front of other family
members especially children.

• We should look for ways and means to use regulations, taxes in order to make it difficult for multinationals
and other retailers from selling tobacco products, especially to the illiterates.

• Restriction of smoking in public places, public transport, work places and restaurants should be ensured

LIMITATIONS

There were certain limitations in this research work. For instance, the sample size was not very large due to

shortage of time. Similarly the respondents belong to only one city of Pakistan and the results might not be

applicable to other cities of Pakistan.

Refrences

• World Health Organization: http://www.emro.who.int/pakistan/programmes_tfi.htm

• Global Adult Tobacco Survey Report 2009:

http://www.emro.who.int/tfi/GATS_2009/Introduction2.htm

• Niazi Karamat Hussain, June 2009, National Assembly Secretariat

• BMC public health, 2008

• Country Profile For Pakistan.(1 December 2003 ,Geneva)