Andy Xu

Ms. McMennamy

Capstone- 1

10/1/17

Refining Climate Models

Aerosols are generally regarded as an extremely potent force in climate change. Yet, the

role of aerosols in climate and climate change is one of the largest uncertainties in understanding

the present and predicting the future state of Earths atmosphere. Insofar as direct radiative

forcing is the more widely studied effect of aerosols, many factors contribute to complications

that still ultimately result in imperfect climate models.

The main issue surrounding aerosols and direct radiative forcing is classifying aerosols

and determining their true effect in models. While the effects of each type of aerosol is mainly

agreed upon, complications arise when models and data are unable to determine the type of

aerosol seen, or inaccurately determine forcing or concentration values. While some events are

singular in aerosol composition (i.e. wildfire smoke), the vast majority are scenarios where there

are several different types of aerosols in differing concentrations and sizes. Particles can combine

physically and chemically, resulting in varying optical capabilities. Even the location of where

aerosols mix varies due to prevailing winds. For example, the Azores region (roughly in the

middle of the Atlantic Ocean), four aerosols were identified over five cases: mineral dust,

pollution, biomass smoke, and volcanic ash (Logan Aerosol properties). Given these issues,

the main reasonable method to identify aerosols is upon their absorptive and optical properties by

observing a combination of singular aerosol concentrations and aerosol mixtures in a continental

setting.
 Asian aerosols are among the most complex yet widely studied due to their seasonal

variability, effects on climate change, and representation of a strong mixture of different aerosol

compositions. Rapid industrialization in Asia as well as deforestation fires and regional deserts

all contribute to aerosol loading in the atmosphere over the region. In Dr. Logans award

winning paper Classification and Investigation of Asian Aerosol absorptive Properties, he

explores the aerosols present over the four Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites of

Taihu, Xianghe, SACOL, and Mukdahan in a

period from 2001 to 2010 (locations as seen in the

image provided). Taihu exhibited pollution

domination, Xianghe exhibited a mixed particle

type, SACOL exhibited a desert-urban scenario,

and Mukdahan exhibited primarily biomass based

aerosols. To identify and determine aerosol

composition, the study uses volume size

distribution, aerosol optical depth (AOD)/absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD), Angstrom

exponent, and the single scattering co-albedo data gathered from AERONET.

The first key is determining particle size, which can be found through the angstrom

exponent calculation; the log-slope relationship between AOD and wavelength strongly

correlates to the wavelength dependence resulting from particle size. When the value is below

.75, the aerosols are classified as coarse mode; greater than .75 is fine mode (Logan, et. al

Classification and investigation). While aerosols of the same type may actually vary between

fine and coarse mode, the data is still serves as an identifying indicator as aerosols within the

region are generally already observed. However, figuring out the particle size does not provide
insight on the chemical composition, as some aerosols (i.e. pollution and BBA) can result in

similar size distributions (Logan, et. al Classification and investigation). Therefore, the next

step is utilizing the single scattering co-albedo, which signifies the loss of photons to absorption;

this trait is essential in identifying particles as differing compositions will absorb more or less

photons. It is used to calculate the absorption aerosol optical depth, which in turn is transposed

with the standard AOD in the Angstrom exponent equation. This provides a_abs, which reduces

ambiguities in composition and reveals a correlation between a_abs and aerosol composition

(Logan, et. al Classification and investigation). Previously determined a_abs (440-870) values

for aerosol compositions are used for the purpose of Dr. Logans study. Black carbon

(submicron) particles have values close to unity, urban pollution/biomass particles have values

ranging from 1 to 2 or greater with dependance on BC, OC, and sulfate, and mineral dust

particles have values possibly higher than 1.5. (Russel, et. al). The last obstacle in aerosol

classification is the mixture of differing aerosols with similar wavelength dependence. Using

domination events (events where there is primarily only one aerosol type), a graph of SSA

against wavelength reduces uncertainties when comparing the amount of visible absorption to

that of near infrared (IR). Ultimately, the aerosols at Mukdahan were found to be carbonaceous

aerosols (primarily BC), Xianghe and Taihu had OC dominant carbonaceous aerosols, and

SACOL primarily had mineral dust with some quantity of iron oxide (Logan, et. al

Classification and investigation); all of which were concluded using the graph below and

observations of wavelength dependencies.

 Once the aerosols are properly identified, models might assume that is the final product.

However, the most potent aerosol causes major inaccuracies in regional models. In fact, the

vertical superposition of black carbon causes differences between top of atmosphere (TOA)

forcing of combined aerosols and the sum of forcings from individual aerosol types to be on

average 14%, but as high as 100% (Vuolo). Essentially, quantifying the effect of vertical

overlapping of atmospheric factors in relation to radiative fluxes is significantly more complex

and at the same time unaccounted for in many models. This is due to BC TOA forcing depending

on cloud presence and their position relative to the aerosol: above (ABV), inside (IN), and below

(BLW). In the study A new method for evaluating the impact of vertical distribution on aerosol

radiative forcing in general circulation models, Vuolo indicates that BC above clouds results in

30% of all BC optical depth but 55% of the forcing, which supports the strong TOA forcing

above clouds. Within clouds, BC only causes moderate enhancement, and when below clouds,

BC actually causes attenuation, or weakening of TOA forcing. In the data obtained by the study,

the BC clear-sky forcing is approximately 118 w/m^2, and transitioning from BLW to ABV

results in a range of 82 to 126 w/m^2. A main explanation for the fact that the BC ABV

experiment results in stronger absorption of shortwave IR is that atmospheric particles higher in

altitude intercept less of incoming solar radiation before it interacts with the BC. Furthermore,
for cloud-sky forcing efficiency, it varies from 44 to 333 w/m^2, representing a 650% increase in

the efficiency of BC above clouds to absorb shortwave radiation (Vuolo).

As models become increasingly accurate when observing aerosol properties specifically,

they may also be improved based upon the source of the data. In a study of Asian aerosol

radiative forcing derived from regional models and data from 2001 to 2004, it attempts to resolve

the common uncertainties of emission sources, meteorology, and aerosol/chemistry processing

by combining data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS),

AERONET, PNNL, and STEM-2K1 (Chung). MODIS is a remote sensing instrument found on

the EOS satellites of Aqua and Terra, and are crucial in that they provide a top-down view of the

atmosphere that obviously only satellites are able to achieve. The AERONET data proved

incredibly valuable in models as well because absorbing aerosol concentrations, particularly BC

once again, were much higher than actual in models. Using outside data for incorporation

further improved locational and seasonal variations of radiative forcings based upon the same

aerosols, as low-level forcing is larger in the dry season than wet seasons in South Asia, even

though the wet season forcing exceeds dry season forcing in East Asia (Chung).

As studies observing aerosol properties and their effects continue to be released, climate

models are continuously improved. This greater understanding of the atmosphere allows

scientists to prepare for the future and predict global effects caused by increasing temperatures.

As anthropogenic activity is increasing dramatically in this century, more accurate climate

models are crucial to protecting the biosphere.

 Works Cited

Chung, C. E., et al. Anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing in Asia derived from regional

models with atmospheric and aerosol data assimilation. Atmospheric Chemistry and

Physics Discussions, vol. 10, no. 1, 2010, pp. 821862., doi:10.5194/acpd-10-821-2010.

Logan, T., et al. Classification and investigation of Asian aerosol absorptive properties.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 13, no. 4, 2013, pp. 22532265.,

doi:10.5194/acp-13-2253-2013.

Russell, P. B., et al. Absorption Angstrom Exponent in AERONET and related data as an

indicator of aerosol composition. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, vol.

9, no. 5, 2009, pp. 2178521817., doi:10.5194/acpd-9-21785-2009.

Vuolo, M. R., et al. A new method for evaluating the impact of vertical distribution on aerosol

radiative forcing in general circulation models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol.

14, no. 2, 2014, pp. 877897., doi:10.5194/acp-14-877-2014