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Kuwait Financial Centre Markaz

RESEARCH

February 2016
GCC WACC H2 2015
Markaz Research is available
on A Toolkit for Corporate Financiers
Bloomberg - Type MRKZ <Go>
Thomson Research, Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) assumes importance in corporate
Reuters Knowledge finance decision making. In the GCC, unlisted companies outnumber listed
Nooz companies by miles and hence most of the deals involve unlisted companies
Zawya Investor in one way or other. Corporate finance professionals face twin problem while
ISI Emerging markets valuing an unlisted company. They have to estimate future cash flows and
Capital IQ
also estimate the appropriate discount rate at which these cash flows can
FactSet Research Connect
TheMarkets.com be discounted to the present. Such a discount rate is nothing but the cost of
capital adjusted for the weights of capital in the capital structure. In this
M.R. Raghu CFA, FRM research, we propose to compute country wise WACC using three different
Head of Research methodologies with appropriate assumptions.
+965 2224 8280
RMandagolathur@markaz.com
GCC WACC, Q4 2015
WACC WACC (Country
WACC (Ratings)
N. C. Karthik Ramesh (Implied ERP) Risk Premium)
Assistant Vice President Bahrain 7.16% 9.63% 8.98%
+965 224 8000 Ext : 4611 Abu Dhabi 7.08% 7.17% 6.92%
KRamesh@markaz.com
Dubai 6.51% 8.43% 7.33%
Kuwait 6.27% 7.17% 6.92%
Rajesh Dheenathayalan
Senior Analyst KSA 6.10% 7.58% 6.98%
+965 2224 8000 Ext: 4608 Oman 5.99% 8.48% 8.03%
RDheenathayalan@markaz.com
Qatar 6.27% 7.23% 6.93%
Source: Damodaran, Markaz Research; Note: 10yr U.S T-Yield of 2.21%
Irfan A. Naheem Other Assumptions: D/E ratio of 0.5, Beta of 1
Analyst
+965 2224 8000 Ext: 4607 The broad methodology of our computation can be illustrated as:
Inaheem@markaz.com

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Source: Markaz Research;


Note: D stands for Debt and E stands for Equity.
MARKAZ RESEARCH
February 2016
WACC Methodology
Cost of capital represents the opportunity cost of all financial capital, primarily debt
and equity, invested in an enterprise. Opportunity cost is what you give up as a
consequence of your decision to use a scarce resource, such as financial capital, in a
particular way1. Opportunity cost also referred to as hurdle cost or discount rate is
of primary importance in valuation and helps the management in identifying projects
which add value to the enterprise.
In order to compute the
cost of capital, we start by Given the importance of this metric in creating value for shareholders, it is essential
finding the cost of each to understand how it is computed. Though in reality its surprising to note that not
capital component that the much effort is divereted towards the calculation of cost of capital; while a significant
firm utilizes. amount of time is focussed on forecasting uncertain future cash flows. Improper
capital cost assumptions could lead to type-I error (accepting projects that dont add
shareholder value) or type-II error (rejecting projects that add shareholder value).
In order to compute the cost of capital, we start by finding the cost of each capital
component that the firm utilizes. Cost of capital primarily consists of equity and debt
costs, weighed according to the proportions of debt and equity capital in the capital
structure. The cost of debt can be inferred easily as it entails specific cost in the form
of interest payments made in cash. The entire debt mix including money market debt
in the form of commercial papers/notes, bank debt in the form of loans/overdraft,
financial leases and bonds raised is aggregated. The interest payments made as a
proportion of interest bearing debt instruments provides us with the debt cost.
Unlike debt holders, equity holders do not demand an explicit return on their capital.
However, equity holders incur an implicit opportunity cost for investing in a specific
company, because they could invest in an alternative company with similar risk
profile2. Equity cost involves various factors such as risk free asset, beta, market risk
premium, country risk premium among others. Beta a measure of priced risk, is
arrived by regressing the past price returns on an index. As private firms do not trade,
estimation of beta becomes problematic for private firms.

Beta a measure of priced In order to estimate the value of beta for a private firm, we create a list of comparable
risk, is arrived by public firms from the same line of industry. Firms with similar line of business and
regressing the past price asset size would typically be considered as a good comparable. To ensure we have
returns on an index. zeroed down on appropriate comparable enterprise, a simple regression test between
the revenues could be done. Firms which are affected by similar economic and
industry factors, in general, would exhibit higher correlation.

Once the publicly listed comparables list is drawn, we may average their beta values
and leverage ratios to arrive at levered beta for the particular sector or industry. This
levered beta is then unlevered to arrive at the beta for the industry/sector. The
unlevered beta could then be levered based on the debt to equity (D/E) ratio for the
private firm. One may either use the management target set for debt to equity ratio
or the industry average to relever the unlevered beta. Considering this as beta for the
private firm, we proceed with the calculation of cost of equity using the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM)3.

1
Prof. Aswath Damodaran
2
ibid
3
We have illustrated the cost of equity calculation using CAPM methodology as its is popular and widely used. Other available methods
include Aribtrage Pricing Theory and Fama French three factor model

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MARKAZ RESEARCH
February 2016
Part I. Cost of Equity

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) states that the equity investors in addition to risk
free rate demand a premium for bearing the extra risk of enterprise operations. The
additional risk is referred to as Equity risk Premium (ERP). ERP for a company is
dependent on the beta which measures how risky the company is relative to the
entire market.

Not all GCC countries have CAPM can be expressed mathematically as,
instruments which can be
considered risk free. Cost of Equity, Ke = Risk free-rate, Rf + Beta * (ERP)

The easy way out to calculate ERP is to find the difference between historic long-term
return of equity index and the risk-free investment, such as government bonds.
Though it appears simple, the methodology has its drawbacks especially for emerging
and frontier countries like the GCC region

1. Not all GCC countries have instruments which can be considered risk free. This is
either because sovereign bonds were not issued (Ex. Kuwait) or because
governments may have default risk (Ex. Dubai).

In our case, we find the nominal yield of 10-yr US treasury and add inflation
differential for the country compared to U.S. Thus, Risk-free rate, Rf for Oman
equals the sum of 10-yr US bond yield (2.21%) and the inflation differential
between Oman and U.S (2.04%).

Risk-free rate, Rf for Oman = 4.25%

Alternatively, we take the local bond yield and deduct the sovereign risk premium
Local bond yield minus the (default spread based on ratings) to derive the risk-free rate. For instance, risk-
sovereign risk premium free rate of Bahrain can be calculated as difference between 6.86% (local bond
(default spread based on yield) and 2.20% (sovereign risk premium).
ratings) can beused to
derive the risk-free rate. Risk-free rate, Rf for Bahrain = 4.66%

2. Equity markets are volatile and risk premiums calculated with short historical data
experience significant estimation errors.

3. Almost all GCC exchanges are still undergoing a lot of transformation in terms of
regulations, trading platforms, instrument availability, and corporate disclosures.
This coupled with nascent secondary market for bonds will make the risk
premiums calculated with historical numbers inaccurate.

While the traditional way of calculating ERP has many obstacles due to lack of data
and volatile nature of equity markets in the region, Markaz computes Equity Risk
Premium data using alternate methods such as:

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MARKAZ RESEARCH
February 2016
a) Sovereign Rating
Taking the US market equity risk premium, of 6.12%4, the ERP of GCC countries are
arrived at by adding the default spread based on their credit rating:

ERP for GCC Countries based on Credit Rating


US Eq. Risk Default Total Equity
Rating
Country Premium Spread Risk Premium
Rating agencies are
Bahrain 6.12% Baa3 2.20% 8.3%
generally considered to be
Kuwait 6.12% Aa2 0.50% 6.6%
slow in updating their
Oman 6.12% A1 0.70% 6.8%
ratings.
Qatar 6.12% Aa2 0.50% 6.6%
Saudi Arabia 6.12% Aa3 0.60% 6.7%
UAE 6.12% Aa2 0.50% 6.6%
Abu Dhabi 6.12% Aa2 0.50% 6.6%
Source: Moodys, Aswath Damodaran, Markaz Research

b) CDS Spreads
Rating agencies are generally considered to be slow in updating their ratings. So,
instead of arriving at default spread based on rating, we can use CDS spreads as a
proxy. In this method, the CDS spread of a countrys bond (adjusted for spread of
risk free country) is considered as default spread instead of looking at the yield
differentials of similarly rated bonds.

The adjusted CDS for Bahrain (3.5%) is the difference between the 10Yr CDS for
Bahrain (3.8) and US (0.3). Since 10 Yr CDS spread for Kuwait is not available, an
average of Qatar and Abu Dhabi spread was taken as proxy for Kuwait due to similar
ratings.

ERP for GCC Countries on CDS Spread


US Eq. Risk Adjusted Total Equity
Country Premium 10Yr CDS CDS Risk Premium
Bahrain 6.12% 3.8% 3.5% 9.6%
Kuwait 6.12% 1.3% 1.0% 7.1%
The adjusted CDS for Oman 6.12% 1.9% 1.6% 7.7%
Bahrain (3.5%) is the Qatar 6.12% 1.3% 1.0% 7.2%
difference between the KSA 6.12% 2.1% 1.8% 7.9%
10Yr CDS for Bahrain (3.8) Abu Dhabi 6.12% 1.3% 1.0% 7.1%
and US (0.3). Dubai 6.12% 2.9% 2.6% 8.8%
Source: Aswath Damodaran, Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research

c) Implied ERP
Implied equity risk premium is an alternative approach to estimating risk premiums.
Assuming that stocks are correctly priced in, if we can estimate the expected cash
flows from buying stocks, then we can estimate the expected rate of return on stocks
by computing an internal rate of return (IRR). Subtracting out the risk free rate from
IRR should yield an implied equity risk premium.

The inputs required for calculation of Implied ERP were not readily available for GCC
countries. Absence of sovereign bonds for some countries made the estimation of risk
free rate and perpetual growth rate difficult. Also, the lack of consensus earnings

4
Aswath Damodaran- 6th January 2016

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MARKAZ RESEARCH
February 2016
growth estimate makes it hard to determine the markets view on growth for the next
5 years.

Implied Risk Premium for GCC Countries


Country Index Level* Implied Equity Risk Premium
KSA 6,911.8 4.95%
Kuwait 5,615.1 5.30%
The inputs required for Qatar 10,429.4 5.28%
calculation of Implied ERP Abu Dhabi 4,307.3 6.92%
were not readily available
Dubai 3,151.0 4.95%
for GCC countries.
Oman 5,406.2 2.72%
Bahrain 1,215.9 4.65%
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Zawya, Markaz Research * As of 31-Dec-2015

Part II. Cost of Debt


The cost of debt can be inferred easily as it entails specific cost in the form of interest
payments made in cash. To compute the cost of debt, entire debt mix including money
market debt in the form of commercial papers/notes, bank debt in the form of
loans/overdraft, financial leases and bonds raised is aggregated. The interest
payments made as a proportion of interest bearing debt instruments provides us with
the debt cost.

For instance, consider ABC Ltd. which has SAR 500mn in the form of long-term bonds
and SAR 100mn in the form of bank loans. Annual interest payments include SAR
36mn and the tax rate for the firm is 5%.

Total Debt = Short-term Debt (money market/commercial papers/notes payable)


+ Long-term debt (bonds)
+ bank debt (loans/overdraft/working capital finance)
+ financial lease obligations

Thus, on a total debt of SAR 600mn ABC Ltd. pays an annual charge of SAR 36mn.
From this we can infer that the interest charged for ABC Ltd. 6%. As interest payments
The interest payments
are tax deductible, we may find the after tax cost of debt as:
made as a proportion of
interest bearing debt Cost of Debt, after-tax = (Interest charge incurred/Total Debt) * (1- Tax rate)
instruments provides us = (36/600) * (1-0.05)
with the debt cost. = 5.7%

Part III. Cost of Capital

Having found out the cost of debt and cost of equity, we could compute the cost of
capital as weighted average cost of capital as

WACC = (Proportion of Debt * Cost of debt, after-tax) + (Proportion of Equity * Cost


of Equity)

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MARKAZ RESEARCH
February 2016
Country-wise Commentary

Saudi Arabia
Risk-free for Saudi Arabia is estimated by subtracting country premium for Saudi
Arabia from 10-yr Saudi sovereign yield. There are multiple ways to compute the risk-
free rate for a country.

Rf for KSA = 10-yr Sovereign Yield (2.85%) - KSA Country Risk Premium (0.60%)
Risk-free for Saudi Arabia is = 3.25%
estimated by subtracting
country premium for Saudi Saudi Arabia sovereign bond rating stands at Aa3 (Moodys) and AA- (S&P ratings).
Arabia from 10-yr Saudi Considering the US market equity risk premium, of 5.86%5, the ERP for Saudi Arabia
sovereign yield. is arrived at by adding the default spread based on their credit rating.

The implied ERP method provides the lowest equity risk premium for KSA markets.
The low ERP can be attributed to discounted levels at which the index is trading on
anticipation of lower earnings growth.

On the contrary, ERP estimated using the credit rating and CDS spread methodology
provides relatively higher ERP of 6.7% and 7.9% respectively. This can be attributed
to the inability of these methodologies to capture the prevailing negative investor
sentiments towards equity instruments.

Kuwait
In the case of Kuwait, long-term government bond with maturity of 10 years lacks
liquidity and is not actively traded. Thus, the yields obtained on local sovereign bonds
might be stale and using them may not be effective. Few argue to the usage of central
banks discount rates (Repo rates) as a proxy for risk free rate. However, this may
not be the right strategy since these are inter-bank rates that are used to lend money
to banks over the short term (while WACC is generally computed for long term
projects) and is fixed by the central bank. Further, they are not backed by an
underlying instrument which the investors have access to unlike government
treasuries which are traded in the public domains. To overcome this problem, we
have taken proxies from countries with rating similar to Kuwait. In this case we have
taken the average of 10 Yr CDS spreads for Abu Dhabi and Qatar as proxy for Kuwait.
In the case of Kuwait, long-
Kuwaits ERP based on credit rating and CDS spread is 6.6% and 7.1% respectively.
term government bond with
maturity of 10 years lacks
Qatar & UAE
liquidity and is not actively
traded. ERP values of Qatar and UAE is also the same as that of Kuwait since their sovereign
ratings are very similar.
However, the marginal difference in 10 Yr CDS for Qatar and Abu Dhabi has resulted
in the difference in ERP for Qatar (7.2%) and Abu Dhabi (7.1%). Dubai with the
history of default has higher CDS spread of 2.9% and hence the high ERP of 8.8%
relative to Abu Dhabi and Qatar.

5
Aswath Damodaran-1st Apr 2015

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MARKAZ RESEARCH
February 2016
The Implied ERP for Abu Dhabi is 6.92% compared to Dubai with implied ERP of
4.95% and Qatar with 5.28%. The higher ERP of Qatar relative to Dubai can be
attributed to higher anticipated earnings growth rate for Qatar.

Sovereign Ratings of GCC Countries, 2015


Country Moodys Rating S&P Ratings

The higher ERP of Qatar KSA Aa3 AA-


relative to Dubai can be Kuwait Aa2 AA
attributed to higher Qatar Aa2 AA
anticipated earnings growth
UAE Aa2 AA
rate for Qatar.
Oman A1 A
Bahrain Baa3 BBB
Source: Moodys S&P

Oman

Oman whose rating is lower than that of KSA, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE has its ERP at
6.8% based on the credit rating methodology. Based on the CDS methodology,
Omans ERP is lower than KSAs ERP, however, the implied ERP is lowest at 2.72%
for Oman. This low implied ERP can pegged to lower long term growth rate (0.96%)
anticipated.

Bahrain
ERP value of Bahrain, which has a rating of Baa3 (Moodys) and BBB (S&P) is at a
premium value of 8.30% compared to its GCC peers. The excess CDS spread over
U.S for Bahrain stands at 3.50% (highest among GCC countries). The implied ERP of
4.65% is better than Oman and Qatar.

Final Note
While the risk free rate and ERP vary due to differences in ratings, the interest rates
which determine the cost of debt have more or less been similar across the GCC
countries. Moreover, as their currencies are pegged to U.S dollar, the monetary
ERP of Bahrain, is at a policies of GCC countries follow the U.S Fed rates, which currently is at historical lows.
premium value of 8.30% For our WACC calculation, we have assumed an after-tax cost of debt at 5%.
compared to its GCC peers.
Cost of equity is subjective as different people use different methods to compute beta.
Some use monthly data for past 5 years while others prefer weekly data for past 3
years. As beta is derived based on historical price data, few adjust it under the
assumption that the beta value would revert towards the mean value of 1 over the
long period6. Difference in equity cost would lead to a range of values for cost of
capital.

Risk-free rate and equity risk premium values are dynamic in nature and change with
time depending on the market perception of risk. In good times, ERP is compressed
due to lack of risk events, which lowers the equity cost and subsequently capital
costs. This would make most projects attractive as with a lower discount/hurdle rate,
it would be value accretive. While in bad times, risk events erupt and the same gets

6
Blume Adjustment

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MARKAZ RESEARCH
February 2016
priced in leading to expansion of ERP. Higher costs of capital could affect the ability
to intiate projects, as they wouldnt add value when expected cashflows are
Risk-free rate and equity discounted at higher discount rate. Stalled investments are usually a fall out of this.
risk premium values change
with time depending on the Given the challenging and dynamic nature of capital costs, it would be a good practice
market perception of risk. to have a range of values for capital costs, depending on different scenarios.
Sensitivity and scenario analysis are particularly helpful in such circumstances to
understand the implications of various capital cost assumptions and its potential
impact on the project.

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MARKAZ RESEARCH
February 2016
Appendix

Illustrative Example: Cost of Capital for a Private Firm


To illustrate this concept, we shall try to arrive at the cost of capital for a private
cement company (ABC Ltd.) operating out of Saudi Arabia. Assume ABC Ltd has yearly
revenues of SAR 1.75billion and that the management has set a D/E target of 30%.

Comparable companies would then include the following list of companies:


Company Revenues D/E Beta (levered)
Saudi Cement Co SAR 2.0bn 0.26 0.46
Southern Province Cement Co SAR 1.8bn 0.17 0.36
Arabian Cement Co SAR 1.7bn 0.16 0.74
Yanbu Cement SAR 1.6bn 0.12 0.50
Average 0.18 0.51
Source: Reuters

From the levered beta, for ABC Ltd. comparable we arrive at the unlevered beta,

Unlevered Beta = Levered Beta / (1+ (1-tax rate) (Average D/E))


= 0.51/ (1+ (1-0.05) (0.18))
= 0.44
Risk premiums calculated
This is levered according to the Debt-to-Equity ratio of ABC Ltd.
with short historical data
experience significant
Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta * (1+ (1- tax rate)* (ABC Debt-to-Equity))
estimation errors.
= 0.44 * (1+ (1-0.05) * (0.3))

= 0.57

Considering this as the value of beta for the private firm, ABC Ltd. Its cost of equity
is computed as below:

Cost of Equity for ABC Ltd. = Rf + * (KSA Equity Risk Premium)


= 2.25% + (0.57 * 6.7%)
= 6.07%

Cost of Debt was computed earlier as 5.7%. With the values of cost of equity and
cost of debt, we may arrive at the WACC

Cost of Capital, WACC = 0.3 * (5.7%) + 0.7 * (6.07%)

WACC, Cost of Capital for ABC Ltd. = 5.96%

Thus, the cost of capital for cement company ABC Ltd. with a capital structure of 30%
debt and 70% equity in Saudi Arabia works out to be 5.96%.

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MARKAZ RESEARCH
February 2016

Disclaimer
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instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction.

The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but no representation or
warranty, expressed or implied, is made that such information and data is accurate or complete, and therefore should not be relied
upon as such. Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this
report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Markaz and are subject to change without notice. Markaz has no obligation to
update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any
opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject
company is withdrawn.

This report may not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person
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value may rise or fall. Investors should be able and willing to accept a total or partial loss of their investment. Accordingly, investors
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Kuwait Financial Centre S.A.K (Markaz) does and seeks to do business, including investment banking deals, with companies covered
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Residential RE GCC, UAE, KSA, Qatar Women Investors
National Bank of Abu Dhabi
GCC *Paid reports ranging from
US$100-$500
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A subsidiary

Subscription Options
Selective Access USD 1,000 / Yr.

Download up to 5 paid reports in a year


Select and download 5 reports from our database of paid research reports. Subscription is
valid for a year.

New reports are constantly being added to our database, providing an option to download
latest reports within the subscription period.

Wide Access USD 2,000 / Yr.

Download up to 10 paid reports in a year


Select and download 10 reports from our database of paid research reports. Subscription is
valid for a year.

New reports are constantly being added to our database, providing an option to download
latest reports within the subscription period.

Best
Unrestricted Access Value USD 3,000 / Yr.

Access and download all our paid reports for a year


Select and download any report from our database of paid research reports. Subscription is
valid for a year.

New reports are constantly being added to our database, providing an option to download
latest reports within the subscription period.

Note:
The above pricing is to obtain a single user license to use the PDF report file for one user only. If you
wish to subscribe for more than one user, please send us an enquiry at info@e-marmore.com
Select reports priced US$1,000 and more are excluded from the Subscription Packages.
For reports that are available for download on On Request, the subscriber will be required to send the
request.
www.e-marmore.com
A subsidiary

Research On Demand
We conduct customized researches based on specific
requirements of our clients

Research on Demand
Research Methodology
Research Key
Rationale Beneficiaries

Meeting specific Challenges Prepare report Understand clients


Outcomes Government
requirements and presentation requirements bodies
Cost Information on
clients
specific Policy makers
Overcoming
research Times Analyze Report Clients requirements
challenges requirements Develop Corporate and
data presentation
scope of SMEs
to client
work
Scope Greater
Cost
Research confidence Asset
effectiveness
Process Management
companies
Data Customized
Focus on quality Gather Marmore Clients Identify solutions
research conducts the briefing required Investment
data research to Marmore deliverables Banks
Access to large Resources
database Comprehensive
Stock brokers
research
Management Develop estimated scope
End-to-end Plan research Consultants &
effort for research activities
solutions Audit firms
work

Marmore MENA Intelligence


A Markaz Subsidiary

About Marmore
Marmore MENA Intelligence Ltd. (Marmore) caters to the growing research and information needs of
organizations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We offer full-fledged research services
covering economies, capital markets, sectors and companies - focused on the MENA region.
We also provide research services to assist our clients in investment decision-making, scanning markets to
identify investment opportunities, conducting ad-hoc researches to understand niche market segments, and
other need-based, bespoke researches.
To know more about us, please visit our website at www.e-marmore.com or write to us on
info@e-Marmore.com or call us at +965-2224 8280.

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