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February 2016
GCC WACC H2 2015
Markaz Research is available
on A Toolkit for Corporate Financiers
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Thomson Research, Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) assumes importance in corporate
Reuters Knowledge finance decision making. In the GCC, unlisted companies outnumber listed
Nooz companies by miles and hence most of the deals involve unlisted companies
Zawya Investor in one way or other. Corporate finance professionals face twin problem while
ISI Emerging markets valuing an unlisted company. They have to estimate future cash flows and
Capital IQ
also estimate the appropriate discount rate at which these cash flows can
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TheMarkets.com be discounted to the present. Such a discount rate is nothing but the cost of
capital adjusted for the weights of capital in the capital structure. In this
M.R. Raghu CFA, FRM research, we propose to compute country wise WACC using three different
Head of Research methodologies with appropriate assumptions.
+965 2224 8280
RMandagolathur@markaz.com
GCC WACC, Q4 2015
WACC WACC (Country
WACC (Ratings)
N. C. Karthik Ramesh (Implied ERP) Risk Premium)
Assistant Vice President Bahrain 7.16% 9.63% 8.98%
+965 224 8000 Ext : 4611 Abu Dhabi 7.08% 7.17% 6.92%
KRamesh@markaz.com
Dubai 6.51% 8.43% 7.33%
Kuwait 6.27% 7.17% 6.92%
Rajesh Dheenathayalan
Senior Analyst KSA 6.10% 7.58% 6.98%
+965 2224 8000 Ext: 4608 Oman 5.99% 8.48% 8.03%
RDheenathayalan@markaz.com
Qatar 6.27% 7.23% 6.93%
Source: Damodaran, Markaz Research; Note: 10yr U.S T-Yield of 2.21%
Irfan A. Naheem Other Assumptions: D/E ratio of 0.5, Beta of 1
Analyst
+965 2224 8000 Ext: 4607 The broad methodology of our computation can be illustrated as:
Inaheem@markaz.com
Beta a measure of priced In order to estimate the value of beta for a private firm, we create a list of comparable
risk, is arrived by public firms from the same line of industry. Firms with similar line of business and
regressing the past price asset size would typically be considered as a good comparable. To ensure we have
returns on an index. zeroed down on appropriate comparable enterprise, a simple regression test between
the revenues could be done. Firms which are affected by similar economic and
industry factors, in general, would exhibit higher correlation.
Once the publicly listed comparables list is drawn, we may average their beta values
and leverage ratios to arrive at levered beta for the particular sector or industry. This
levered beta is then unlevered to arrive at the beta for the industry/sector. The
unlevered beta could then be levered based on the debt to equity (D/E) ratio for the
private firm. One may either use the management target set for debt to equity ratio
or the industry average to relever the unlevered beta. Considering this as beta for the
private firm, we proceed with the calculation of cost of equity using the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM)3.
1
Prof. Aswath Damodaran
2
ibid
3
We have illustrated the cost of equity calculation using CAPM methodology as its is popular and widely used. Other available methods
include Aribtrage Pricing Theory and Fama French three factor model
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) states that the equity investors in addition to risk
free rate demand a premium for bearing the extra risk of enterprise operations. The
additional risk is referred to as Equity risk Premium (ERP). ERP for a company is
dependent on the beta which measures how risky the company is relative to the
entire market.
Not all GCC countries have CAPM can be expressed mathematically as,
instruments which can be
considered risk free. Cost of Equity, Ke = Risk free-rate, Rf + Beta * (ERP)
The easy way out to calculate ERP is to find the difference between historic long-term
return of equity index and the risk-free investment, such as government bonds.
Though it appears simple, the methodology has its drawbacks especially for emerging
and frontier countries like the GCC region
1. Not all GCC countries have instruments which can be considered risk free. This is
either because sovereign bonds were not issued (Ex. Kuwait) or because
governments may have default risk (Ex. Dubai).
In our case, we find the nominal yield of 10-yr US treasury and add inflation
differential for the country compared to U.S. Thus, Risk-free rate, Rf for Oman
equals the sum of 10-yr US bond yield (2.21%) and the inflation differential
between Oman and U.S (2.04%).
Alternatively, we take the local bond yield and deduct the sovereign risk premium
Local bond yield minus the (default spread based on ratings) to derive the risk-free rate. For instance, risk-
sovereign risk premium free rate of Bahrain can be calculated as difference between 6.86% (local bond
(default spread based on yield) and 2.20% (sovereign risk premium).
ratings) can beused to
derive the risk-free rate. Risk-free rate, Rf for Bahrain = 4.66%
2. Equity markets are volatile and risk premiums calculated with short historical data
experience significant estimation errors.
3. Almost all GCC exchanges are still undergoing a lot of transformation in terms of
regulations, trading platforms, instrument availability, and corporate disclosures.
This coupled with nascent secondary market for bonds will make the risk
premiums calculated with historical numbers inaccurate.
While the traditional way of calculating ERP has many obstacles due to lack of data
and volatile nature of equity markets in the region, Markaz computes Equity Risk
Premium data using alternate methods such as:
b) CDS Spreads
Rating agencies are generally considered to be slow in updating their ratings. So,
instead of arriving at default spread based on rating, we can use CDS spreads as a
proxy. In this method, the CDS spread of a countrys bond (adjusted for spread of
risk free country) is considered as default spread instead of looking at the yield
differentials of similarly rated bonds.
The adjusted CDS for Bahrain (3.5%) is the difference between the 10Yr CDS for
Bahrain (3.8) and US (0.3). Since 10 Yr CDS spread for Kuwait is not available, an
average of Qatar and Abu Dhabi spread was taken as proxy for Kuwait due to similar
ratings.
c) Implied ERP
Implied equity risk premium is an alternative approach to estimating risk premiums.
Assuming that stocks are correctly priced in, if we can estimate the expected cash
flows from buying stocks, then we can estimate the expected rate of return on stocks
by computing an internal rate of return (IRR). Subtracting out the risk free rate from
IRR should yield an implied equity risk premium.
The inputs required for calculation of Implied ERP were not readily available for GCC
countries. Absence of sovereign bonds for some countries made the estimation of risk
free rate and perpetual growth rate difficult. Also, the lack of consensus earnings
4
Aswath Damodaran- 6th January 2016
For instance, consider ABC Ltd. which has SAR 500mn in the form of long-term bonds
and SAR 100mn in the form of bank loans. Annual interest payments include SAR
36mn and the tax rate for the firm is 5%.
Thus, on a total debt of SAR 600mn ABC Ltd. pays an annual charge of SAR 36mn.
From this we can infer that the interest charged for ABC Ltd. 6%. As interest payments
The interest payments
are tax deductible, we may find the after tax cost of debt as:
made as a proportion of
interest bearing debt Cost of Debt, after-tax = (Interest charge incurred/Total Debt) * (1- Tax rate)
instruments provides us = (36/600) * (1-0.05)
with the debt cost. = 5.7%
Having found out the cost of debt and cost of equity, we could compute the cost of
capital as weighted average cost of capital as
Saudi Arabia
Risk-free for Saudi Arabia is estimated by subtracting country premium for Saudi
Arabia from 10-yr Saudi sovereign yield. There are multiple ways to compute the risk-
free rate for a country.
Rf for KSA = 10-yr Sovereign Yield (2.85%) - KSA Country Risk Premium (0.60%)
Risk-free for Saudi Arabia is = 3.25%
estimated by subtracting
country premium for Saudi Saudi Arabia sovereign bond rating stands at Aa3 (Moodys) and AA- (S&P ratings).
Arabia from 10-yr Saudi Considering the US market equity risk premium, of 5.86%5, the ERP for Saudi Arabia
sovereign yield. is arrived at by adding the default spread based on their credit rating.
The implied ERP method provides the lowest equity risk premium for KSA markets.
The low ERP can be attributed to discounted levels at which the index is trading on
anticipation of lower earnings growth.
On the contrary, ERP estimated using the credit rating and CDS spread methodology
provides relatively higher ERP of 6.7% and 7.9% respectively. This can be attributed
to the inability of these methodologies to capture the prevailing negative investor
sentiments towards equity instruments.
Kuwait
In the case of Kuwait, long-term government bond with maturity of 10 years lacks
liquidity and is not actively traded. Thus, the yields obtained on local sovereign bonds
might be stale and using them may not be effective. Few argue to the usage of central
banks discount rates (Repo rates) as a proxy for risk free rate. However, this may
not be the right strategy since these are inter-bank rates that are used to lend money
to banks over the short term (while WACC is generally computed for long term
projects) and is fixed by the central bank. Further, they are not backed by an
underlying instrument which the investors have access to unlike government
treasuries which are traded in the public domains. To overcome this problem, we
have taken proxies from countries with rating similar to Kuwait. In this case we have
taken the average of 10 Yr CDS spreads for Abu Dhabi and Qatar as proxy for Kuwait.
In the case of Kuwait, long-
Kuwaits ERP based on credit rating and CDS spread is 6.6% and 7.1% respectively.
term government bond with
maturity of 10 years lacks
Qatar & UAE
liquidity and is not actively
traded. ERP values of Qatar and UAE is also the same as that of Kuwait since their sovereign
ratings are very similar.
However, the marginal difference in 10 Yr CDS for Qatar and Abu Dhabi has resulted
in the difference in ERP for Qatar (7.2%) and Abu Dhabi (7.1%). Dubai with the
history of default has higher CDS spread of 2.9% and hence the high ERP of 8.8%
relative to Abu Dhabi and Qatar.
5
Aswath Damodaran-1st Apr 2015
Oman
Oman whose rating is lower than that of KSA, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE has its ERP at
6.8% based on the credit rating methodology. Based on the CDS methodology,
Omans ERP is lower than KSAs ERP, however, the implied ERP is lowest at 2.72%
for Oman. This low implied ERP can pegged to lower long term growth rate (0.96%)
anticipated.
Bahrain
ERP value of Bahrain, which has a rating of Baa3 (Moodys) and BBB (S&P) is at a
premium value of 8.30% compared to its GCC peers. The excess CDS spread over
U.S for Bahrain stands at 3.50% (highest among GCC countries). The implied ERP of
4.65% is better than Oman and Qatar.
Final Note
While the risk free rate and ERP vary due to differences in ratings, the interest rates
which determine the cost of debt have more or less been similar across the GCC
countries. Moreover, as their currencies are pegged to U.S dollar, the monetary
ERP of Bahrain, is at a policies of GCC countries follow the U.S Fed rates, which currently is at historical lows.
premium value of 8.30% For our WACC calculation, we have assumed an after-tax cost of debt at 5%.
compared to its GCC peers.
Cost of equity is subjective as different people use different methods to compute beta.
Some use monthly data for past 5 years while others prefer weekly data for past 3
years. As beta is derived based on historical price data, few adjust it under the
assumption that the beta value would revert towards the mean value of 1 over the
long period6. Difference in equity cost would lead to a range of values for cost of
capital.
Risk-free rate and equity risk premium values are dynamic in nature and change with
time depending on the market perception of risk. In good times, ERP is compressed
due to lack of risk events, which lowers the equity cost and subsequently capital
costs. This would make most projects attractive as with a lower discount/hurdle rate,
it would be value accretive. While in bad times, risk events erupt and the same gets
6
Blume Adjustment
From the levered beta, for ABC Ltd. comparable we arrive at the unlevered beta,
= 0.57
Considering this as the value of beta for the private firm, ABC Ltd. Its cost of equity
is computed as below:
Cost of Debt was computed earlier as 5.7%. With the values of cost of equity and
cost of debt, we may arrive at the WACC
Thus, the cost of capital for cement company ABC Ltd. with a capital structure of 30%
debt and 70% equity in Saudi Arabia works out to be 5.96%.
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