Discrete

Distributions

1
Learning Objectives

Distinguish between discrete random

variables and continuous random
variables.
Know how to determine the mean and
variance of a discrete distribution.
Identify the type of statistical
experiments that can be described by
the binomial distribution, and know how
to work such problems.
2
Learning Objectives -- Continued

Decide when to use the Poisson distribution in

analyzing statistical experiments, and know
how to work such problems.
Decide when binomial distribution problems
can be approximated by the Poisson
distribution, and know how to work such
problems.

3
Random Variable -
A variable which contains the outcomes of a chance
experiment
Focusing our attention on the numerical features of the elementary
outcomes, we introduce the idea of a random variable.

A random variable X associates numerical values with each

elementary outcome of an experiment.

A quantity resulting from an experiment that, by

chance, can assume different values.

4
The numerical values are determined by some
characteristic of the elementary outcome, and
typically it will vary from outcome to outcome.
The word random serves to emphasize the fact
that before the experiment is performed, we do
not know the specific outcome and,
consequently, its associated value of X. The
following examples illustrate the concept of a
random variable.

5
Outcome Value of X
HHH 3
HHT 2
HTH 2
HTT 1
THH 2
THT 1
TTH 1
TTT 0

6
For each elementary outcome, there is
only one value for X. However, several
elementary outcomes may yield the
same value. Scanning our list, we now
identify the events (the collections of
elementary outcomes) that correspond
to distinct values of X.

7
Numerical Value of X as Composition of the
an Event Event
X =0 = {TTT}

X=1 = {HTT, THT, TTH}

X=2 = {HHT, HTH, THH}

X=3 = {HHH}

8
The random variable X, the number of heads in three
tosses of a coin, defines a correspondence between
the collections of elementary outcomes and the real
numbers 0, 1, 2, and 3.

Guided by this example, we have two general facts:

The events corresponding to the distinct values of X

are incompatible; that is, any two of these events
cannot occur together.

The union of these events is the entire sample space.

9
Discrete vs Continuous
Distributions
Discrete Random Variable -- the set of all
possible values is at most a finite or a
countably infinite number of possible values
Number of new subscribers to a magazine
Number of bad checks received by a restaurant
Number of absent employees on a given day

Continuous Random Variable -- takes on

values at every point over a given interval
CurrentRatio of a motorcycle distributorship
Elapsed time between arrivals of bank customers

10
Discrete Probability Distributions
A discrete random variable is a variable that
can assume only a countable number of values
Many possible outcomes:
number of complaints per day
number of TVs in a household
number of rings before the phone is answered
Only two possible outcomes:
gender: male or female
defective: yes or no
spreads peanut butter first vs. spreads jelly first

11
Discrete Distribution -- Example

Distribution of Daily
Crises P
r 0.5
Number of
Probability o 0.4
Crises
b
a 0.3
0 0.37 b
1 0.31 0.2
i
2 0.18 l 0.1
3 0.09 i
t
0
4 0.04 0 1 2 3 4 5
y
5 0.01 Number of Crises

12
Requirements for a
Discrete Probability Function

Probabilities are between 0 and 1,

inclusively 0 P( X ) 1 for all X

Total of all probabilities equals 1

P( X ) = 1
over all x

13
Mean of a Discrete Distribution

= E ( X ) = X P(X )
X P(X) X P( X)
-1 .1 -.1
0 .2 .0
1 .4 .4
2 .2 .4
3 .1 .3
1.0
14
Variance and Standard Deviation

of a Discrete Distribution

= ( X ) P( X ) = 1.2
2

2 2
= = 12
. 110
.
X P(X) X (X ) ( X ) 2 2
P( X )

-1 .1 -2 4 .4
0 .2 -1 1 .2
1 .4 0 0 .0
2 .2 1 1 .2
3 .1 2 4 .4
1.2
15
Mean Example

= E ( X ) = X P( X ) = 1.15
X P(X) XP(X) P
r 0.5
0 .37 .00
o 0.4
1 .31 .31 b
a 0.3
2 .18 .36 b
0.2
i
3 .09 .27
l 0.1
4 .04 .16 i
t
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
5 .01 .05 y
Number of Crises
1.15

16
Variance and Standard Deviation

Example
= ( X )
2

2
= = 1.41 = 1.19
2
P ( X ) = 141
.

X P(X) (X- ) (X- ) 2 (X- ) 2 P(X)

0 .37 -1.15 1.32 .49
1 .31 -0.15 0.02 .01
2 .18 0.85 0.72 .13
3 .09 1.85 3.42 .31
4 .04 2.85 8.12 .32
5 .01 3.85 14.82 .15
1.41

17
 Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions

Discrete Continuous
Probability Probability
Distributions Distributions

Binomial Normal

Poisson Uniform

Hypergeometric Exponential
18
Binomial Distribution
Experiment involves n identical trials
Each trial has exactly two possible outcomes:
success and failure
Each trial is independent of the previous trials
p is the probability of a success on any one trial
q = (1-p) is the probability of a failure on any one
trial
p and q are constant throughout the experiment
X is the number of successes in the n trials

19
Binomial Distribution

n! X n X
Probability P ( X ) =
X !( n X )!
p q for X = 0,1,2, n.
function

Mean value = n p
Variance = n p q
2

and
standard
deviation
= = 2
n p q

20
Binomial Distribution:
Development
Experiment: randomly select, with
replacement, two families from the residents
of Tiny Town
Success is Children in Household: p = 0.75
Failure is No Children in Household: q = 1- p
= 0.25
X is the number of families in the sample with
Children in Household
Children in Number of Listing of Sample Space
Family
Household Automobiles
(A,B), (A,C), (A,D), (A,A),
A Yes 3
(B,A), (B,B), (B,C), (B,D),
B Yes 2
(C,A), (C,B), (C,C), (C,D),
C No 1
(D,A), (D,B), (D,C), (D,D)
D Yes 2

21
Binomial Distribution:
Development Continued
Listing of
Families A, B, and D have Sample
Space
P(outcome)
X
children in the household;
family C does not (A,B), 1/16 2
Success is Children in (A,C),
(A,D),
1/16
1/16
1
2
Household: p = 0.75 (A,A) 1/16 2
Failure is No Children in (B,A),
(B,B),
1/16
1/16
2
2
Household: q = 1- p = (B,C), 1/16 1
0.25 (B,D), 1/16 2
(C,A), 1/16 1
X is the number of (C,B), 1/16 1
families in the sample (C,C), 1/16 0
(C,D), 1/16 1
with Children in (D,A), 1/16 2
Household (D,B), 1/16 2
(D,C), 1/16 1
(D,D) 1/16 2

22
Binomial Distribution:
Development Continued
Listing of P(X)
Sample P(outcome) X
X
Space
0 1/16
1 6/16
(A,B), 1/16 2 2 9/16
(A,C), 1/16 1 1
(A,D), 1/16 2
(D,D), 1/16 2
n! x n x
(B,A),
(B,B),
1/16
1/16
2
2
P( X ) =
X !( n X ) !
pq
(B,C), 1/16 1
(B,D), 1/16 2 2! 0 2 0 1
0!( 2 0) ! .75 .25
(C,A), 1/16 1 P( X = 0) = = 0.0625 =
(C,B), 1/16 1 16
(C,C), 1/16 0
(C,D), 1/16 1 2! 1 2 1 6
1!( 2 1)!.75 .25
P ( X = 1) = = 0.375 =
(D,A), 1/16 2 16
(D,B), 1/16 2
(D,C), 1/16 1 2! 9
2 22

2!( 2 2) ! .75 .25

(D,D) 1/16 2 P ( X = 2) = = 0.5625 =
16
23
Binomial Distribution:
Development Continued
Families A, B, and D have Possible
children in the household; Sequences
P(sequence)
X
family C does not
Success is Children in
Household: p = 0.75 (F,F) (.25)(.25)= (.25)2 0
Failure is No Children in (S,F) (.75)(.25) 1
Household: q = 1- p =
0.25 (F,S) (.25)(.75) 1
X is the number of families
in the sample with (S,S) (.75)(.75)= (.75)2 2
Children in Household

24
Binomial Distribution:
Development Continued
Possible
Possible P(sequence)
P(sequence) P(X)
P(X)
Sequences
Sequences X
X X
X

25))== (.25) 2 25))== (.25) 2 =0.0625

2 2
(F,F)
(F,F) (.(.25
25)(.
)(.25 00 00 (.(.25
25)(.
)(.25 =0.0625
(S,F)
(S,F) (.(.75
75)(.
)(.25
25)) 11 11 22(.(.25
25)(.
)(.75
75))=0.375
=0.375

75))== (.75) 2 =0.5625

2
(F,S)
(F,S) (.(.25
25)(.
)(.75
75)) 11 22 (.(.75
75)(.
)(.75 =0.5625

75))== (.75) 2
2
(S,S)
(S,S) (.(.75
75)(.
)(.75 22 nn!! xx nnxx
P X )) ==
P(( X
X !!( nn X
X X ) !!
pq
22!! 00 2200 22!! 11 2211

0!( 22 00) !!.75 .25 11) !!.75 .25

P X == 00)) ==
P(( X == 00..0625
0625 P X=
P(( X =11)) =
= =
= 00..375
375
0! 11!!( 22

22!! 22 2222
P X == 22)) ==
P(( X
22!!( 22 22) !!.75 .25 == 00..5625
5625

25
Binomial Distribution
Example:
The Gallup survey discussed in the
Decision Dilemma found that 65% of all
financial consumers were very satisfied
with their primary financial institution. If
this figure still holds true today, suppose
40 financial consumers are sampled
randomly. What is the probability that
exactly 23 of the 40 are very satisfied
with their primary financial institution?

26
Solution:

The value of p is .65 (very satisfied), the value of q =

1 p =1 - 0.65 = 0.35 (not very satisfied), n=40, and
X=23. the binomial formula yields the final answer.
n! x n x
P( X ) =
X !( n X ) !
pq

40
C23(.65)23(.35)17=(88732378800)(.000049775)
(.000000018)=(.0784)
If 65% of the financial consumers are very satisfied, about 7.84% of
the time the researcher would get exactly 23 out of 40 financial
consumers who are very satisfied with their financial institution.

27
The odds are against getting 23 out of 40 financial consumers by
chance who are very satisfied with their financial institution. How
many very satisfied financial consumers would one expect to get in
40 randomly selected financial consumers? If 65% of the financial
consumers are very satisfied with their primary financial institution,
one would expect to get about 65% of 40 or (.65)(40) = 26 very
satisfied financial consumers. In any individual sample of 40
financial consumers, the numbers who are very satisfied is likely to
differ from 26. On average, the expected number is 26. a researcher
who gets 23 very satisfied financial consumers out of 40 can view
this number in light of the 26 that would be expected.

28
Binomial Distribution
Example:
According to the U.S. Census Bureau,
approximately 6% of all workers in
Jackson, Mississippi, are unemployed. In
conducting a random telephone survey
in Jackson, what is the probability of
getting two or fewer unemployed
workers in a sample of 20?

29
Solution:
n = 20
p =. 06
q =. 94
P( X 2 ) = P ( X = 0 ) + P ( X = 1) + P ( X = 2 )
=. 2901+. 3703+. 2246 =. 8850

P ( X = 0) =
20!
0!(20 0)!
( .06) ( .94)
0 20 0
= (1)(1)(.2901) =.2901

P ( X = 1) =
20!
1!( 20 1)!
( .06) ( .94)
1 20 1
= (20)(.06)(.3086 ) =.3703

P ( X = 2) =
20!
2 !( 20 2)!
( .06) ( .94)
2 20 2
= (190)(.0036 )(.3283) =.2246

30
If 6% of workers in Jackson, Mississippi, are unemployed, the
telephone surveyor would get zero, one, or two unemployed
workers 88.5% of the time in a random sample of 20 workers.
The requirement of getting two or fewer is satisfied by getting
zero, one, or two unemployed workers. Thus this problem is the
union of three probabilities.
Whenever the binomial formula is used to solve for cumulative
success (not an exact number), the probability of each x value
must be solved and the probabilities summed. If an actual
survey produced such a result, it would serve to validate the
census figures.

31
Binomial Table
n = 20 PROBABILITY
X 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

0 0.122 0.012 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

1 0.270 0.058 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2 0.285 0.137 0.028 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
3 0.190 0.205 0.072 0.012 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
4 0.090 0.218 0.130 0.035 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
5 0.032 0.175 0.179 0.075 0.015 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
6 0.009 0.109 0.192 0.124 0.037 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000
7 0.002 0.055 0.164 0.166 0.074 0.015 0.001 0.000 0.000
8 0.000 0.022 0.114 0.180 0.120 0.035 0.004 0.000 0.000
9 0.000 0.007 0.065 0.160 0.160 0.071 0.012 0.000 0.000
10 0.000 0.002 0.031 0.117 0.176 0.117 0.031 0.002 0.000
11 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.071 0.160 0.160 0.065 0.007 0.000
12 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.035 0.120 0.180 0.114 0.022 0.000
13 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.015 0.074 0.166 0.164 0.055 0.002
14 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.037 0.124 0.192 0.109 0.009
15 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.015 0.075 0.179 0.175 0.032
16 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.035 0.130 0.218 0.090
17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.012 0.072 0.205 0.190
18 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.028 0.137 0.285
19 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.058 0.270
20 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.012 0.122

32
Example:

Solve the binomial probability for n=20,

p=40, and x=10 by using Binomial
Probability Distribution.

33
 Using the Binomial Table
Solution:
n = 20 PROBABILITY
X 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

0 0.122 0.012 0.001 0.000

1 0.270 0.058 0.007 0.000
2 0.285 0.137 0.028 0.003
3 0.190 0.205 0.072 0.012
4 0.090 0.218 0.130 0.035
5 0.032 0.175 0.179 0.075
6 0.009 0.109 0.192 0.124
7 0.002 0.055 0.164 0.166
8 0.000 0.022 0.114 0.180
9 0.000 0.007 0.065 0.160
10 0.000 0.002 0.031 0.117 n = 20
11 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.071 p =.40
12 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.035
13
14
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.015
0.005
P ( X = 10) = 20C10 ( .40) ( .60)
10 10
= 01171
.
15 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001
16 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
18 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
19 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
20 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 34
Binomial Distribution using Table:
U.S. Census Bureau Problem

n = 20
n = 20 PROBABILITY
X 0.05 0.06 0.07 p =. 06
0 0.3585 0.2901 0.2342 q =. 94
1 0.3774 0.3703 0.3526
2 0.1887 0.2246 0.2521
P( X 2) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2)
3 0.0596 0.0860 0.1139 =. 2901 +. 3703 +. 2246 =. 8850
4 0.0133 0.0233 0.0364
5 0.0022 0.0048 0.0088 P ( X > 2 ) = 1 P ( X 2 ) = 1. 8850 = .1150
6 0.0003 0.0008 0.0017
7
8
0.0000 0.0001 0.0002
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
= n p = (20 )(. 06 ) = 1. 20

20

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 = n p q = (20 )(. 06 )(. 94 ) = 1.128
2

= = 1.128 = 1. 062
2

35
Excels Binomial Function

n =20
p =0.06

X P(X)
0 =BINOMDIST(A5,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
1 =BINOMDIST(A6,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
2 =BINOMDIST(A7,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
3 =BINOMDIST(A8,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
4 =BINOMDIST(A9,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
5 =BINOMDIST(A10,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
6 =BINOMDIST(A11,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
7 =BINOMDIST(A12,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
8 =BINOMDIST(A13,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
9 =BINOMDIST(A14,B$1,B$2,FALSE)

36
Graphs of Selected Binomial
Distributions
n = 4 PROBABILITY 1.000
P = 0.5

X 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.900

0.800

0 0.656 0.063 0.000 0.700

0.600

1 0.292 0.250 0.004 0.500

P(X)
0.400
0.300
2 0.049 0.375 0.049 0.200
0.100
3 0.004 0.250 0.292 0.000
0 1 2 3 4
4 0.000 0.063 0.656 X

P = 0.1 P = 0.9
1.000 1.000
0.900 0.900
0.800 0.800
0.700 0.700
0.600 0.600
0.500 0.500
P(X)
P(X)

0.400 0.400
0.300 0.300
0.200 0.200
0.100 0.100
0.000 0.000
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4
X X

37
Example:
Purchasing magazine reported the result of a survey in which
buyers were asked a series of questions with regard to Internet
usages. One question asked was how they would use the Internet
if security and other issue could be resolved. 78% said they
would use it for pricing information, 75% said they would use it to
send purchase orders, and 70% said they would use it for
purchase order acknowledgements. Assume that these
percentages hold true for all buyers. A researcher randomly
samples 20 buyers and asks them how they would use the
Internet if security and other issues could be resolved.

38
Questions:
What is the probability that exactly 14 of
these buyers would use the Internet for
pricing information?
What is the probability that all of the
buyers would-use the Internet to send
purchase orders?
What is probability that fewer than 12
would use the Internet for purchase order
acknowledgements?

39
Solution:

a) n = 20 p = .78 x = 14
20
C14 (.78)14(.22)6 = 38,760(.030855)(.00011338)
= .1356

b) n = 20 p = .75 x = 20
20
C20 (.75)20(.25)0 = (1)(.0031712)(1) = .0032

c) n = 20 p = .70 x < 12
Use table A.2:
P(x=0) + P(x=1) + . . . + P(x=11) =

0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.000 +

0.001 + 0.004 + 0.012 +0 .031 + 0.065 = .113

40
Example:

The Wall Street Journal reported some interesting statistics

on the job market. One statistic is that 40% of all workers say
they would change jobs for slightly higher pay. In addition,
88% of companies say that there is a shortage of qualified
job candidates. Suppose 16 workers are randomly selected
and asked if they would change jobs for slightly higher
pay. What is the probability that nine or more say yes?
What is the probability that three, four, five, or six say yes? If
13 companies are contacted, what is the probability that
exactly 10 say there is a shortage of qualified job
candidates? What is the probability that all of the companies
say there is a shortage of qualified job candidates? What is
the expected number of companies that would say there is a
shortage of qualified job candidates?
41
n = 16 p = .40
P(x > 9): from Table A.2:

x Prob
9 .084
10 .039
11 .014
12 .004
13 .001
.142

42
p(3 < x < 6):
x Prob
3 .047
4 .101
5 .162
6 .198
.508

n = 13 p = .88

P(x = 10) = 13C10(.88)10(.12)3 = 286(.278500976)(.001728) = .1376

P(x = 13) = 13C13(.88)13(.12)0 = (1)(.1897906171)(1) = .1898

Expected Value = = n p = 13(.88) = 11.44

43
Question 5.22
Harley Davidson, director of quality control for the Kyoto motor
company is conducting his monthly spot check of automatic
transmissions. In this procedure, 10 transmissions are removed
from the pool of components and are checked for manufacturing
defects. Historically, only 2 percent of the transmissions have such
flows. (Assume that flaws occur independently in different
transmissions.)

(a) What is the probability that Harleys sample contains more than
two transmissions with manufacturing flaws? (Do not use the
tables.)

(b) What is the probability that none of the selected transmissions

has any manufacturing flaws? (Do not use the tables.)

44
Question 5.23

Diane Burns is the mayor of a large city. Lately, she has become
concerned about the possibility that large numbers of people who are
drawing unemployment checks are secretly employed. Her assistants
estimate that 40 percent of unemployment beneficiaries fall into this
category, but Ms. Bruns is not convinced. She asks one of her aides
to conduct a quite investigation of 10 randomly selected
unemployment beneficiaries.

(a) If the mayers assistants are correct, what is the probability that
more than eight of individuals investigated have jobs?

(b) If the mayors assistants are correct, what is the probability that
only three of the investigated have jobs?

45
Poisson Distribution
Describes discrete occurrences over a
continuum or interval
A discrete distribution
Describes rare events
Each occurrence is independent any
other occurrences.
The number of occurrences in each
interval can vary from zero to infinity.
The expected number of occurrences
must hold constant throughout the
experiment.
46
Poisson Distribution:
Applications
Arrivals at queuing systems
airports -- people, airplanes, automobiles,
baggage
banks -- people, automobiles, loan
applications
computer file servers -- read and write
operations
Defects in manufactured goods
number of defects per 1,000 feet of extruded
copper wire
number of blemishes per square foot of
painted surface
number of errors per typed page

47
Poisson Distribution

Probability function

e
X

P( X ) = for X = 0,1, 2, 3,...

X!
where:
= long run average
e = 2. 718282... (the base of natural logarithms)
Mean value Variance Standard deviation

48
Problem:

Bank customers arrive randomly on weekday

afternoons at an average of 3.2 customers every 4
minutes. What is the probability of having more than
seven customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday
afternoon?

A bank has an average random arrival rate of 3.2

customers every 4 minutes. What is the
probability of getting exactly 10 customers during
on 8-inute interval?

49
Solution:

= 3. 2 customers / 4 minutes = 3. 2 customers / 4 minutes

X = 10 customers / 8 minutes X = 6 customers / 8 minutes
Adjusted Adjusted
= 6. 4 customers / 8 minutes = 6. 4 customers / 8 minutes

P(X) = P(X) =
X X
e e
X! X!
10 6.4 6 6.4

P( X = 10 ) = 6.4 e = 0. 0528 P( X = 6) = 6.4 e = 0.1586

10 ! 6!

50
Poisson Distribution: Probability Table

X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0 3.2 6.4 6.5 7.0 8.0
0 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.0498 0.0408 0.0017 0.0015 0.0009 0.0003
1 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.1494 0.1304 0.0106 0.0098 0.0064 0.0027
2 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.2240 0.2087 0.0340 0.0318 0.0223 0.0107
3 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240 0.2226 0.0726 0.0688 0.0521 0.0286
4 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680 0.1781 0.1162 0.1118 0.0912 0.0573
5 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008 0.1140 0.1487 0.1454 0.1277 0.0916
6 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.0504 0.0608 0.1586 0.1575 0.1490 0.1221
7 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216 0.0278 0.1450 0.1462 0.1490 0.1396
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081 0.0111 0.1160 0.1188 0.1304 0.1396
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027 0.0040 0.0825 0.0858 0.1014 0.1241
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008 0.0013 0.0528 0.0558 0.0710 0.0993
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0004 0.0307 0.0330 0.0452 0.0722
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0164 0.0179 0.0263 0.0481
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0081 0.0089 0.0142 0.0296
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0037 0.0041 0.0071 0.0169
15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0016 0.0018 0.0033 0.0090
16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0007 0.0014 0.0045
17 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0003 0.0006 0.0021
18 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0009

51
Poisson Distribution: Using the
Poisson Tables
If a real estate office sells 1.6 houses on an
average weekday and sales of houses on
weekdays are Poisson distributed, what is the
probability of selling exactly four houses in one
day? What is the probability of selling no houses
in one day? What is the probability of selling more
than five houses in one day? What is the
probability of selling 2 or more houses in one
day?

52

X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0
0
1
0.6065
0.3033
0.2231
0.3347
0.2019
0.3230
0.0498
0.1494
= 1. 6
P( X = 4 ) = 0. 0551
2 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.2240
3 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240
4 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680
5 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008
6 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.0504
7 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001

53
Poisson Distribution:
Using the Poisson Tables

X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0
0 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.0498
1 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.1494
2 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.2240
3 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240
4 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680
5 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008
6 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.0504
7 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001

= 1. 6
P( X > 5) = P( X = 6) + P( X = 7) + P( X = 8) + P( X = 9)
=. 0047 +. 0011 +. 0002 +. 0000 =. 0060

54
Poisson Distribution: Using the
Poisson Tables

X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0
0 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.0498
1 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.1494
2 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.2240
3 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240
4 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680
5 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008
6 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.0504
7 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001

= 1. 6
P( X 2) = 1 P( X < 2) = 1 P( X = 0) P( X = 1)
= 1. 2019 . 3230 =. 4751
55
Poisson Distribution: Graphs

= 1. 6
0.35

0.30
0.16
= 6. 5
0.14
0.25 0.12

0.20 0.10
0.08
0.15
0.06
0.10
0.04
0.05 0.02
0.00 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

56
Problem:

According to the United National Environmental Program and World

Health Organization, in Bombay, India, air pollution standards for
particulate matter are exceeded an average of 5.6 days in every three-
week period. Assume that the distribution of number of days exceeding
the standards per three-week period is Poisson distributed.

What is the probability that the standard is not exceeded on any

day during a three-week period?

What is the probability that the standard is exceeded exactly 6

days of a three-week period?

What is the probability that the standard is exceeded exactly 15 or

more days during a three-week period? If this outcome actually
occurred, what might you conclude?

57
 = 5.6 days3 weeks
a) Prob(x=0 = 5.6):

from Table A.3 = .0037

b) Prob(x=6 = 5.6):

from Table A.3 = .1584

c) Prob(x > 15 = 5.6):

x Prob.
15 .0005
16 .0002
17 .0001
x > 15 .0008
Because this probability is so low, if it actually occurred, the researcher
would actually have to question the Lambda value as too low for this
period. 58
Problem:

A high percentage of people who fracture or dislocate

a bone see a doctor for that condition. Suppose the
percentage is 99%. Consider a sample in which 300
people are randomly selected who have fractured or
dislocated a bone.
What is the probability that exactly five of them did not see a
doctor?

What is the probability that fewer than four of them did not
see a doctor?

What is the expected number of people who would not see a

doctor?

59
Solution:
n = 300, p = .01, = n(p) = 300(.01) = 3

a) Prob(x = 5):
Using = 3 and Table A.3 = .1008

b) Prob (x < 4)
= Prob.(x = 0) + Prob.(x = 1) + Prob.(x = 2)
+ Prob.(x = 3)
= .0498 + .1494 + .2240 + .2240 = .6472

c) The expected number = = = 3

60
Problem:
The average number of annual trips per family to
amusement parks in the United State is Poisson
distributed, with a mean of 0.6 trips per year. What is the
probability of randomly selecting an American family and
finding the following:

a) The family did not make a trip to an amusement park

last year?
b) The family took exactly one trip to an amusement park
last year?
c) The family took two or more trips to amusement parks
last year?
d) The family took three or fewer trips to amusement
parks over a three-year period?
e) The family took exactly four trips to amusement parks
during a six-year period?
61
Solution:
= 0.6 trips1 year

a) Prob (x=0 = 0.6):

from Table A.3 = .5488

b) Prob (x=1 = 0.6):

from Table A.3 = .3293

62
c) Prob(x > 2 = 0.6):
from Table A.3
x Prob.
2 .0988
3 .0198
4 .0030
5 .0004
6 .0000

x > 2 .1220

63
Prob(x < 3 3 year period):
The interval length has been increased (3
times)
New Lambda = = 1.8 trips3 years

Prob(x < 3 = 1.8):

from Table A.3 x Prob.
0 .1653
1 .2975
2 .2678
3 .1607
x < 3 .8913

64
Prob(x=4 6 years):
The interval has been increased (6 times)

New Lambda = = 3.6 trips6 years

Prob(x=4 = 3.6):

from Table A.3 = .1912

65
Problem:
Ship collisions in the Houston Ship Channel are rare. Suppose the
numbers of collisions are Poisson distributed, with the mean of 1.2
collisions every four months.

What is probability of having no collisions occur over a four-

month period?

What is probability of having exactly two collisions in a two month

period?

What is probability of having one or fewer collisions in a six month

period? If this outcome occurred, what might you conclude about
ship channel conditions during this period? What might you
conclude about ship channel safety awareness during this period?

What might you conclude about weather conditions during this

period? What might you conclude about lambda?

66
Solution:
= 1.2 collisions4 months
a) Prob(x=0 = 1.2):

from Table A.3 = .3012

b) Prob(x=2 2 months):

The interval has been decreased (by )

New Lambda = = 0.6 collisions2 months

Prob(x=2 = 0.6):

from Table A.3 = .0988

67
Prob (x < 1 collision6 months):
The interval length has been increased (by 1.5)

New Lambda = = 1.8 collisions6 months

Prob(x < 1 = 1.8):

from Table A.3 x Prob.
0 .1653
1 .2975

x< 1 .4628

The result is likely to happen almost half the time (46.26%). Ship channel
and weather conditions are about normal for this period. Safety awareness
is about normal for this period. There is no compelling reason to reject the
lambda value of 0.6 collisions per 4 months based on an outcome of 0 or 1
collision per 6 months.

68
Problem:
A pen company arranges 1.2 defective pens per carton
produced (200 pens). The number of defects per carton
is Poisson distributed.

What is the probability of selecting a carton and finding no

defective pens?

What is the probability of finding eight or more defective pens in a

carton?

Suppose a purchaser of these pens will quit buying from the

company if a carton contains more than three defective pens. What
is the probability that a carton contains more than three defective
pens?

69
 = 1.2 penscarton
a) Prob(x=0 = 1.2):

from Table A.3 = .3012

b) Prob(x > 8 = 1.2):

from Table A.3 = .0000

70
Prob(x > 3 = 1.2):
from Table A.3 x Prob.
4 .0260
5 .0062
6 .0012
7 .0002
8 .0000
x > 3 .0336

71
Question:
A high percentage of people who fracture or dislocate
a bone see a doctor for that condition. Suppose the
percentage is 99%. Consider a sample in which 300
people are randomly selected who have fractured or
dislocated a bone.
What is the probability that exactly five of them did not see a
doctor?

What is the probability that fewer than four of them did not see a
doctor?

What is the expected number of people who would not see a

doctor?

72
n = 300, p = .01, = n(p) = 300(.01) = 3

a) Prob(x = 5):
Using = 3 and Table A.3 = .1008

b) Prob (x < 4) = Prob.(x = 0) + Prob.(x = 1) +

Prob.(x = 2) + Prob.(x = 3)
= .0498 + .1494 + .2240 + .2240 = .6472

c) The expected number = = = 3

73
Excels Poisson Function

=1.6

X P(X)
0 =POISSON(D5,E$1,FALSE)
1 =POISSON(D6,E$1,FALSE)
2 =POISSON(D7,E$1,FALSE)
3 =POISSON(D8,E$1,FALSE)
4 =POISSON(D9,E$1,FALSE)
5 =POISSON(D10,E$1,FALSE)
6 =POISSON(D11,E$1,FALSE)
7 =POISSON(D12,E$1,FALSE)
8 =POISSON(D13,E$1,FALSE)
9 =POISSON(D14,E$1,FALSE)
74
Poisson Approximation
of the Binomial Distribution
Binomial probabilities are difficult to
calculate when n is large.
Under certain conditions binomial
probabilities may be approximated by
Poisson probabilities.
If n > 20 and n p 7, the approximation is acceptable .

Poisson approximation Use = n p.

75
Poisson Approximation
of the Binomial Distribution
Binomial
Binomial
Poisson n = 10, 000
Poisson n = 50
X = 1. 5 p =. 03 Error
X = 3. 0 p =. 0003 Error
0 0.0498 0.0498 0.0000
0 0.2231 0.2181 -0.0051
1 0.1494 0.1493 0.0000
1 0.3347 0.3372 0.0025
2 0.2240 0.2241 0.0000
2 0.2510 0.2555 0.0045
3 0.2240 0.2241 0.0000
3 0.1255 0.1264 0.0009
4 0.1680 0.1681 0.0000
4 0.0471 0.0459 -0.0011
5 0.0141 0.0131 -0.0010 5 0.1008 0.1008 0.0000
6 0.0035 0.0030 -0.0005 6 0.0504 0.0504 0.0000
7 0.0008 0.0006 -0.0002 7 0.0216 0.0216 0.0000
8 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000 8 0.0081 0.0081 0.0000
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 9 0.0027 0.0027 0.0000
10 0.0008 0.0008 0.0000
11 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000
12 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

76
Question 5-31
Concert pianist Donna Prima has become quite upset
at the number of coughs occurring in the audience
just before she begins to play. On her latest tour,
Donna estimates that on average eight coughs occur
just before the start of her performance. Ms. Prima
has sworn to her conductor that if she hears more
than five coughs at tonights performance, she will
refuse to play. What is the Probability that she will
play tonight?

77
Question 5-32

Guy Ford, production supervisor for the Winstead Companys

Charlottesville plant, is worried about an elderly employees
ability to keep up the minimum work pace. In addition to the
normal daily breaks, this employee stops for short rest periods
an average of 4.1 times per hour. The rest period is fairly
consistent 3 minutes each time. Ford has decided that if the
probability of the employee resting for 12 minutes ( not
including normal breaks) or more per hour is greater than 0.5,
he will move the employee to a different job. Should he do so?

78