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Executive 2028

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Independent outlook of the global commercial 2022

passenger and freighter aircraft market 2021

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flightglobal.com 2017
 Executive summary

The 2017 Flight Fleet Forecast estimates that some 43,725 new commercial jet and turboprop
aircraft will be delivered into passenger and freighter airline service over the next 20 years.
These are required to serve an expanding market, with forecast annual traffic growth of 4.7%
in the passenger sector and 4% for air cargo between 2017 and 2036.

The total value of these new deliveries, estimated using Flight Forecast 2017-2036 Deliveries
Ascend Consultancys 2017 Base Full-Life Values, is around
$2,940 billion. Base Values are used to estimate future delivery
Single-aisle Twin-aisle
values, since in our view, they are a more pragmatic estimation
of actual business values than the manufacturer list prices often 65% 17%
used in other forecasts. (28,345) (7,700)

Single-aisle jets will account for 65% of deliveries and 48%

of delivery value, with twin-aisle types at 17% and 42%
respectively. The core of the single-aisle market will remain in
the 150-seat size with over 60% of demand by value, although
the larger 180-seat size will take an increasingly bigger share.
The 300-seater twin-aisles will lead their category with 40% of
twin-aisle value.
Just under a half of deliveries will be for replacement purposes,
as some 74% of the current fleet is forecast to be retired during
the 20-year period. This includes around 18,930 passenger
aircraft, with an additional 2,180 being converted for freighter
service, including 1,250 single-aisle types. Some 1,840
freighters will also be retired.
Regional Jet Turboprop Freighter

9% 7% 2%
(3,780) (3,075) (825)

Single-aisle jets will account for 65% of deliveries

and 48% of delivery value

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 Executive summary

The whole Asia-Pacific region has become the leader Forecast 2017-2036 Deliveries by Region
in fleet growth and will receive over 40% of deliveries,
including 19% for China alone. The more mature
markets of North America and Europe will take 18% and North America Russia & CIS Africa Asia-Pacific

18% 4% 3% 24%
16% respectively.
The global commercial aircraft fleet in service is expected (8,132) (1,616) (1,203) (10,471)
to increase by 81% to 51,200 aircraft at the end of
2036, including 42,855 passenger jets, 4,470 passenger
turboprops and 3,875 commercial freighter aircraft.
Airbus and Boeing are expected to remain the two largest
commercial aircraft original equipment manufacturers,
between them delivering an estimated 86% by value of
the worlds commercial jet aircraft through 2036. However,
the other manufacturers including Bombardier, Comac,
Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi and Sukhoi are expected to
capture an increasingly significant volume of jet demand,
between them accounting for almost $250 billion of
delivery value in the forecast period.
The twin-aisle market will remain the last duopoly in
the commercial aircraft sector for another decade but
Comac and UAC are launching a joint programme for
a 280-seater and there is a potential $100 billion of
additional deliveries forecast for twin-aisles from the mid
to late-2020s from the existing or new OEMs in the sector.
In the smaller sizes, the turboprop market is expected
to be worth $64 billion in deliveries, led by the 70-seat
sector, with potential for a larger 90+-seat size from the
Middle East Latin America Europe China
mid-2020s. Regional Jets will be a $120 billion sector, led
by aircraft of over 90-seats, although a third of value will 7% 9% 16% 19%
come from 70-76-seaters serving the North American (2,950) (4,122) (7,068) (8,163)
markets, which are currently scope-clause constrained.

Asia-Pacific region to lead demand

and China to take 19% of aircraft by itself

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 Discover the Flight Fleet Forecast
Executive Summary
Introduction
Key Aviation Industry Drivers
Commercial Airliner Fleet Trends
Forecast Summary
Forecast by Market Group
Forecast by Region
Delivery Forecast by Aircraft Type
Methodology
About the Flight Fleet Forecast
FlightGlobal is delighted to present this all-new 2017 Flight Fleet
Forecast. This annual report, developed by our Flight Ascend
Consultancy team, encapsulates more than 80 years of combined
industry experience and expertise, allied with FlightGlobals
unrivalled commercial aircraft database resource, to deliver a
deep insight into the future outlook for the commercial aviation
industry. This truly independent report sets out the predicted
evolution of the worlds commercial passenger and freighter
aircraft fleet, together with the deliveries into and retirements
from that fleet over the next 20 years. The fleet totals in each of
eight global regions, together with new deliveries, retirements
and freighter conversions for airlines in those regions, are all
projected on an annual basis through 2036. The analysis details
each of those parameters on an individual aircraft programme
level, delivering an unrivalled understanding of the outlook for all
known current and future commercial aircraft production families.
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Why choose this forecast?
Independently compiled and verified
The demand based methodology utilised is the product
of years of expert refinement
Forecast model utilises the Flight Fleets Analyzer database
Detailed forecast stretching 20 years into the future
Only forecast available providing granular projections of
aircraft fleet and deliveries by type and region per year
Enabling you to
Financiers, Investors, Lessors & Insurers
Position aircraft finance, investment and trading strategy
to provide for medium and long- term demand
Understand the on-going influence of new deliveries and
new models on residual value risk
MROs
Understand future shape of fleet for maintenance demand
Confidently prepare for introduction of new aircraft variants
OEMs
Identify prospects for current and future programmes
Help shape future business strategy
Airlines
Plan future fleet based on availability trends
Assess impact on current operating fleet
Airports
Determine future traffic levels
Prepare for introduction of new aircraft types
Regulators
Understand impact of legislation on future fleet
Inform future regulatory action
Training & Simulator Providers
Plan future training programmes
Inform simulator purchase decisions
 Methodology

The Flight Fleet Forecast is a demand-based model which estimates the future fleet,
retirements and deliveries of commercial turboprop and jet aircraft in both the passenger
and cargo sectors, based on detailed analysis of historical trends and developments in the
commercial aviation sector. Drawing upon FlightGlobal and Flight Ascend Consultancys
extensive data and knowledge resource, the forecast projects the evolution of the global
commercial airline fleet and consequent demand for new aircraft through sophisticated
modelling of traffic demand, aircraft retirements, fleet development and the future aircraft
manufacturing scenario.

Traffic forecasts Fleet forecasts

The passenger traffic demand forecasts are derived from
analysis of historical passenger traffic in each of the eight
forecast regions. The relationship between this traffic
demand and historical GDP and yield trends is used to
derive a projection of future traffic demand. The projection
makes assumptions regarding the following aspects:
Long-term regional real GDP forecasts
Airline yield (revenue per passenger kilometre)
The regional passenger and cargo capacity forecasts are
converted into a forecast of fleets required in each region
to fulfil this capacity demand, through a historical analysis
of capacity and fleet data. The fleet analysis is based on the
online Flight Fleets Analyzer database, which provides
access to the full histories of over 80,000 commercial
aircraft by serial number. This enables the tracking of every
major event surrounding the aircraft fleet, including orders,
cancellations, deferrals, deliveries, sales, leases, conversions,
storage and retirements.

Changes over time in the relationship between GDP
and air traffic
Relative maturity in certain markets
Increased liberalisation in bilateral international markets
and domestic systems
This analysis delivers an annual forecast of traffic, measured
in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), for each of the
eight forecast regions. Traffic forecasts are translated into
capacity forecasts, measured in available seat kilometres
(ASKs), through an analysis of long-term passenger load
factor developments. Passenger load factors for 2016
averaged 80.3% at the global level (IATA figure), which is
another record high.
For each region, the historical fleet evolution of turboprops,
regional jets, single-aisle and twin-aisle types is analysed in
terms of actual aircraft numbers and total capacity in a series
of capacity bands based on seat size. Trends in key
productivity factors average frequency, sector length and
aircraft seat size can thus be understood and projected
based on historical performance. These trends are used as
a guide to the future, since it is accepted that history does
not always provide an accurate picture of what may happen.
Therefore, the forecast also takes into account the known
plans of airlines and any perceived change in the regions
airline structure.
With the total capacity and productivity factors forecast,
the fleet required in each region and aircraft category is
projected as a product of these forecasts.

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 About us

About us
With an expert team of 25 analysts based across the globe, Weve been reporting on and collating
Flight Ascend Consultancy provides manufacturers, airlines and
financiers with expert advisory and valuations services to inform
information for the industry for over
multi-million dollar growth, risk advisory and strategy decisions. 100 years, giving you a dependable
source of information and insight.
Part of FlightGlobal, Flight Ascend Consultancy provides unique
value and has been doing so for over 50 years. It has the most
industry experience with the most comprehensive historical
and future aircraft fleet and airline schedule data and an
unprecedented historical aircraft values database, to provide a
unique view on aircraft values and the impact of industry trends.

More than 80
years of combined
industry experience
and expertise

FlightGlobal has been a pioneer of aviation intelligence for over 100 years.
We provide everything you need to know about the aviation industry
from historical aircraft valuations and the world fleet, world schedule and
network to current insight on valuations, industry drivers and future trends.
For more information visit flightglobal.com/about-us

The information contained in our databases and used in this presentation has been assembled from many sources, and whilst
reasonable care has been taken to ensure accuracy, the information is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability
whatsoever shall attach to FlightGlobal, its offices, or employees in respect of any error or omission that may have occurred. Copyright 2017 FlightGlobal