Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Cambodia: Liberal Democracy
Emasculated

Carlyle A. Thayer
October 7,2017

Q1- What is the motivation behind the Cambodian government's lawsuit to dissolve
the opposition CNRP [Cambodian National Rescue Party]?
ANSWER: Hun Sen is motivated to use lawfare to emasculate the opposition to
demonstrate to his domestic audience that his regime holds real power and the
opposition doesn't. The second motivation is to clear the deck for the national
elections to be held next year. By weakening the CNRP Hun Sen hopes that no
credible opposition force can coalesce in time to make an electoral impact next year.
Q2- What wider repercussions do you think are likely as a result?
ANSWER: Western aid donors and Japan will have to re-evaluate their aid programs
that are aimed at improving governance, free and fair elections and the rule of law. lf
they protest too much they risk having their programs shut down. ASEAN'S attempt
at community-building among its ten members based on adherence to the law and
human rights has now become damaged goods given negative trends not only in
Cambodia but in Myanmar (Rohingyas), the Philippines (anti-drug campaign and
extra-judicial kilings), Thailand (delayed elections) and Malaysia (financial scandal)
and lndonesia (rise of religious intolerance and extremism).

Q3 - How would you describe the current state of Cambodia's political system?
ANSWER: ln short, the Constitutional provision that Cambodia's political system is a
liberal multi-party democracy has been shredded. Cambodia to all intents and
purposes is a one-party regime headed by an autocratic ruler aligned with China.
Cambodia is rapidly becoming an illiberal regime dashing the hopes of the
international community and the United Nations that it would develop into a stable
multiparty democracy.
Q4- What is your assessment of the international community's response (particularly
the US) to the ongoing crackdown?
ANSWER: The international community's response has been muted and
disappointing. The US Embassy has been publicly critical but the United States and
other state critics of the Hun Sen regime risk punitive action against their programs
as well as public vilification. There is little likelihood that member states in ASEAN
will take notice of these developments.
 2

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Cambodia: Liberal Democracy

Emasculated," Thoyer Consultancy Bockground Brief , October 7, ZOI7.
All background briefs are posted on Sribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Brieft
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Cambodia: Opposition in
Disarray Unlikely to Recover
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 8,2017

We request your assessment of the following: Has Hun Sen succeeded in destroying
the opposition? What hope, if any, do his critics have of seeing him out of power?
And was the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) always just a pipe dream?
ANSWER: Since L993, all opposition parties in Cambodia have been based on a
leading personality. They are not cadre-based parties with an organisational
structure able to persist after the loss of their leader. The CNRP is shattered and
unlikely to recover for the July 2018 national elections. The CNRP is in disarray. All
other opposition "parties" that emerge and are permitted to register will be small
and of no significant account,
The CNRP lacks an effective leader inside Cambodia who can appeal to the urban
masses and rural peasants. Ever since Sam Rainsy defected from FUNCINPEC the
opposition has been based on the personality of its leader. Each successive leader -
Norodom Rannadidth, Sam Rainsy and Kim Sokha - has less charisma and appeal..
Hun Sen is the dominant political figure and all his actions are designed to drive
home the point to Cambodians there is no one qualified to replace him. There is no
level political playingfield in Cambodia. The 2018 national electionswill be more of a
referendum to endorse Hun Sen than a free and fair contestation of opposing
political parties and policy platforms.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, "Cambodia: Opposition in Disarray Unlikely to

Recover," Thoyer Consultancy Background Brief , October 8, 2OL7. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Cambodia's Legerdemain CNRP
Seats to be Redistributed

Carlyle A. Thayer
October 12,2017

We are writing a report about the legal twists and turns the ruling party in Cambodia
has taken that could see the parliament filled with small parties replacing the
opposition Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP).
Ql. The opposition CNRP won 44 %of the vote in the last national election; nowtheir
seats will go to five smaller parties that collectively wrangled just 6 % of the vote. What
does this say about mandate? To an outsider it might "look" like more parties, but
does it actually undermine democracy/the will of the people?
ANSWER: Hun Sen has abandoned all pretense of maintaining a liberal multi-party
democracy as required by the Constitution, He is blatantly moving to eviscerate the
CNRP and playing divide and rule among the other rump political parties. His actions
are unprecedented. ln a liberal democracy it is the will of the people that rules and
determines the composition of the National Assembly. Hun Sen is ruling by fiat.
to benefit most - Funcinpec (Front uni notionol pour un Combodge
Q2. The party set
independant, neutre, pocifique et coopdroff or United Front for an lndependent,
Neutral, Peaceful, and Cooperative Cambodia)was not led by Norodom Ranariddh in
201'3, but Nhek Bun Chhay was in the leadership. He formed his own party and took
Funcinpec's only seat at the recent commune elections. Does this further call into
question Funcinpec's mandate?
ANSWER: FUNCINPEC is like a meteor in the sky, it burnt out long ago and has now
fallen to earth. FUNCINPEC was eclipsed by the Sam Rainsy Party. Hun Sen is just
playing political Bames using FUNCINPEC's legacy for his own manipulative ends.

Q3. Two of the new parties have had some legal trouble, which would potentially
mean they couldn't be leaders of those parties or their party could be suspended.
Additionally, another party led by an American-Khmer claimed to have 300 US
advisors. The CNRP's Kem Sokha is in jail in part because he claimed something similar.
Does this show a double standard, or is the CPP using laws when it suits them
politically?
ANSWER: Hun Sen is creating a thin veneer of the Constitution's mandate that
Cambodia's political system is a "liberal multi-party democracy" that is supported by
the King and Cambodia's citizens. The Constitution states that this system cannot be
changed. The ground is set for the CPP to score a massive victory in July 2018 with a
 2

number of minor opposition parties contesting the elections. Hun Sen may even
reward one of these parties to give the pretense that Cambodia has a coalition
government.

Q4. At least one party (KAPP -Khmer Anti-Poverty Party) said they would refuse to take
these hand-out seats, saying it wouldn't represent the people's will. They might have
a political reason for doing this, but is it rare to see a party put the interests of the
people behind their own interests (holding seats for a couple of months)?
ANSWER: ln the past, the opposition has vented its anger by boycotting the National
Assembly. I cannot recall any precedent for KAPP's decision. ln the past FUNCINPEC
certainly put the interests of the people behind its desire for a political role in the
National Assembly and government"
Q5. Any other thoughts on this bizarre turn of events?
ANSWER: Although there have been some protests by U.S. officials and European
politicians this will not dissuade Hun Sen from his present course. lt appears that all
the attention focused on Duterte's anti-drug campaign in the Philippines, North
Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and the Rohingyas in Myanmar, has
overshadowed Cambodia's descent into dictatorship. The United States has
abandoned leadership on democracy promotion. Donald Trump appears so
preoccupied with his own war on the media and elected politicians that he cannot be
counted on to raise a protest ortake punitive action against Cambodia. Hun Sen after
all has cited Trump in partialjustification for his crackdown on the media.

suggested citation: carlyle A. Thayer, "cambodia's Legerdemain cNRp seats to be

Redistributed," Thayer consultancy Background Brief , october !2, 20L7. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.