Estimation of CO2 Emission from Marine Traffic in Singapore Straits

Using Automatic Identification Systems Data

See Chuan Leong
Institute of Systems Science, National University of Singapore, Singapore
Carol Anne Hargreaves (PhD)
Institute of Systems Science, National University of Singapore, Singapore
Prateek Singhal
Institute of Systems Science, National University of Singapore, Singapore
Jun Yuan (PhD)
Centre for Maritime Studies, National University of Singapore, Singapore

ABSTRACT: The Singapore Straits area is one of the busiest marine traffic regions in the world. Numerous
ships arrive, depart and travel through this region, and affect the air quality of the port environment. Our goal
is to estimate carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from Marine Traffic in the Singapore Straits, using Automatic
Identification Systems (AIS) data. Key questions such as, how much total CO2 emissions are emitted daily by
ships, which types of ships should be preferred and rewarded because of their low carbon emissions, what is
the likely impact of the long term carbon emission forecasts on Singapore Port will be analyzed. This research
will be of value to Singapore Port Authorities responsible for managing CO2 emissions at the Singapore Ports
as they can better understand how well they are progressing towards the International Maritime Organization
(IMO) green house gases (GHG) 2020 target and secondly, can make smart decisions on which type of ship or
country of ship may enter the Singapore port and thereby controlling CO2 emissions.

1 INTRODUCTION plans to improve the sectors carbon footprint by

1.1 Background
The world is dependent on the shipping industry for
the transportation of goods from one country to an-
other. Shipping contributes 90% of the transporta-
tion of world trades. Although ships are considered
to be the cleanest mode of transport when compared
to rail and air, they still contributes to more than 1
gigatonnes of CO2 emissions worldwide yearly.
(IMO 2009a) In addition, ships also emit various
other pollutants such as CH4, N2O, NOx, SOx and
PM. In a recent report by World Meteorological Or-
ganization, greenhouse gases have surged to its fast-
est rate for 30 years in 2013. (WMO 2014) GHG and
non-GHG have been known to cause climate warm-
ing and climate forcing effects that are detrimental to
a sustainable future.
Sustainable development is therefore a priority of
todays modern and technologically advanced world.
The international shipping industry is firmly on track
to reduce its CO2 emissions by 20% by 2020, with
significant further reductions thereafter. However,
the next United Nations Climate Change Conference
(COP 19) needs to support the International Mari-
time Organization (IMO) as it continues its vital
work to help deliver meaningful CO2 emission re-
ductions by international shipping, including the de-
velopment of Market Based Measures. (UNFCCC
2013) The shipping industry is regulated by the In-
ternational Maritime Organization (IMO), which
stressing the importance of a global approach in fur-
thering improvements to energy efficiency and emis-
sion reduction.
As the global economy slowly returns to growth,
the Port of Singapore has maintained its global lead
in bunker sales and has achieved consistent growth
(at least 5% on average per year since 2009) in an-
nual vessel arrival tonnage, container and cargo
throughput in 2013. Figuratively, in 2013, annual
vessel arrival tonnage reached 2.33 billion gross
tonnes (GT), container throughput hit 32.6 million
twenty foot equivalents (TEU), volume of bunkers
sold was 42.5 million tonnes and total tonnage of
ships under the Singapore flag was 73.6 million GT.
(MPA 2014)
1.2 Literature Review
In the literature review, previous studies have rarely
involved the theoretical support of low-carbon port
development, more particularly the lack of quantita-
tive research methods. For the few typical research
achievements, (Dong 2009) pointed out that more at-
tention to the economic development of low-carbon
ports has to be given. (Chen 2009) proposed that the
fifth generation port is the low-carbon port, which
marked the development of ports in the world has
entered a new phase. In July 2011, governments at
IMO agreed on a comprehensive package of tech-
nical regulations for reducing shippings CO2 emis-
sions which entered into force in January 2013. As
an interim measure, consideration is also being given
by IMO to measure, monitor and report CO2 emis-
sions from individual ships, with detailed proposals
by governments scheduled to be discussed during
2014, including proposals by International Chamber
of Shipping (ICS). (UNFCCC 2013) IMO introduced
technical measures, operational measures, and eco-
nomic measures as instruments for reducing CO2.
Technical measures include improvements in the
Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) involving
the use of modified hull form, modified propeller,
exhaust heat recovery and other methods. Operation-
al measures include the Ship Energy Efficiency
Management Plan (SEEMP) that investigates the ef-
ficiency based on ship types and Energy Efficiency
Operational Indictor (EEOI). Economic measures
may include financial incentives to promote the use
of technical and operational measures. By 2020, new
ships of various types must improve EEDI efficiency
by 10% with the reference emission set in 2013. By
2025, the EEDI reduction must be 20% and by 2030,
the EEDI reduction must be 30%. (MARPOL 2011)
The reduction of CO2 measures by technical
measures is estimated to be 28.2% by 2020 while
operational measures, e.g. 10% speed reduction, is
estimated to be 23.3%. (IMO 2000) Shipping com-
panies therefore have a very strong incentive to re-
duce their fuel consumption and thus reduce their
CO2 emissions. Shipping ports like Singapore may
even be included as a new emission control area by
IMO in the future. (Jean-Florent 2013)
1.3 Purpose of Study
With the projected growth in shipping traffic and the
mandatory emission limits set by IMO, there are
many questions to be answered, namely, what is the
current CO2 emission level of all ships entering and
leaving Singapore? Which type of ship emits more
CO2?
The aim of this paper is to assess the operational
emission impact factors through the quantification of
CO2 emissions breakdown by area, ship quantity,
ship type and country of registration. With this in-
formation, it is expected that Singapore Port Author-
ities can use the baseline of CO2 emissions released
from ships in the Singapore Straits/Port to determine
the various technical, operational and economic
measures so as to meet the required emission limits
set by IMO.
2 METHODOLOGY
2.1 Framework and Data Collection
CO2 emissions depend on the number and type
ships operating in the region. We established a rec-
tangular boundary area that serves as a possible
emission control area along the Singapore Straits
that contains the shipping lanes and also including
the Singapore port limit area jurisdiction. Refer to
Figure 1 for the defined rectangular boundary area
with WGS84 corner coordinates [1.11N, 1.57N;
104.26E, 103.43E]. The ships that operate in this
area will be collected from Automatic Identification
System (AIS) from the period January to June 2014.
CO2 emissions are largely dependent on the number
of ships, type of ships, speed of the ship, within a
specific area. Assuming that the number of ships is a
predominant factor in the overall emissions, the
maximum number of ships in a single day will be
determined and set as the baseline for the emission
calculation and investigation. Visual displays of sta-
tistical data will be used for the analysis of CO2
emissions.
2.2 Overview and Analysis of AIS Data
The AIS is an automatic tracking system used on
ships to identify and locate vessels by electronically
exchanging data with other nearby ships and receiver
base stations at regular intervals. The signal is
transmitted using an onboard transponder operating
in the very high frequency band. (AIS 2014) AIS
contain information such as the unique ship identifi-
er, position, course, speed, and navigation status.
Ship identifier in AIS can be cross referenced with
other ship information from the World Shipping
Register (WSR 2014) or Lloyds database (Lloyd
2014) to provide the ships physical dimension and
tonnage information. The fused information is often
presented in open source web based maps (Vessel
Finder 2014) where ships details and ship move-
ment are shown. For example, in Figure 1, the out-
line map depicts the traffic density of ships in vari-
ous shipping lanes along the Singapore Straits.
(Marine Traffic 2014) What is also shown are the
major ports in Singapore indicated as black dots, the
Singapore port limit polygon boundary and also the
rectangular boundary for analysis of ships and CO2
emissions.
2.3 Processing of AIS and Ship Data
The AIS data, received by various base receiver sta-
tions located in Singapore, fused with other vessel
information, is obtained from the Maritime and Port
Authority of Singapore (MPA). Ships that are locat-
ed within the rectangular bounding box area will be
analyzed. Erroneous vessel locations in the AIS data
may be due to equipment malfunction or invalid op-
erator inputs. For example, locations that are inland
are removed. The inland land boundaries are ob-
tained from an OpenStreetMap. (OpenStreetMap
2014) Vessel movement speeds, derived from delta
locations in consecutive time periods, are analyzed
to determine if they are significantly higher than the
vessels maximum cruising speeds. For such move-
ments where the speed is more than 5 times its max-
imum speed, the location information is removed.
1.57 N, 104.26 E
Singapore Port Limit
Area of Study
(Singapore Straits)
1.11 N, 103.43 E
Figure 1. Outline map of ship traffic density at Singapore
Straits.
2.4 Emission Calculation
A complete methodology, using the European
(MEET) framework, for the estimate of air pollutant
emissions from ships in port environment was estab-
lished by (Trozzi 1999). Trozzi used a database of
15,000 ships with daily engine fuel consumption, C,
in tonnes/day, to construct a linear fit fuel usage
based on the ship type, k and fuel type, j at full pow-
er. There is no indication whether the ships fuel
consumption is dependent on the ship cargo load,
whether the ship is sailing upstream or downstream
to the water current or whether is in sailing in differ-
ent weather conditions. The results are as shown in
Table 1 with fuel type, j, assumed to be marine die-
sel oil. The total emission, Ejklm, in kg/interval t, is as
shown in Equation (1) below (Trozzi 1999) :-
Ejklm|t = Cjk|t Fjlm
where,
j is the fuel type (Bunker fuel oil, Marine diesel oil,
Marine gas oil, Gasoline fuel)
k is the ship type for use in consumption classifica-
tion (Solid bulk, Liquid bulk, General cargo, Con-
tainer, Passenger/Ro-Ro/Cargo, Passenger, High
speed ferries, Inland cargo, Sail ships, Tugs, Fishing,
Other ships)
l is the engine type class for use in emission factors
characterization
m is the operation mode (Cruising, Maneuvering,
Hotelling, Tanker offloading)
Fjlm is the average emission factors of CO2 in
kg/tonne/day
t is the time interval between a AIS report pair
Table 1. Consumption of full power fuel, Cjk, (tonnes/day) ver-
sus Gross Tonnage (GT).
Ship Type Consumption (tonnes/day)
Solid bulk Cjk = 20.186 + .00049 GT
Liquid bulk Cjk = 14.685 + .00079 GT
Gen.Cargo Cjk = 9.8197 + .00143 GT
Container Cjk = 8.0552 + .00235 GT
Passenger/RoRo/Cargo Cjk = 12.834 + .00156 GT
Passenger Cjk = 16.904 + .00198 GT
High speed ferry Cjk = 39.483 + .00972 GT
Inland cargo Cjk = 9.8197 + .00143 GT
Sail ships Cjk = 0.4268 + .00100 GT
Tugs Cjk = 5.6511 + .01048 GT
Fishing Cjk = 1.9387 + .00448 GT
Other Ships Cjk = 9.7126 + .00091 GT
Other theoretical formulations using engine type
and engine power exist (IMO 2009b) but these for-
mulae require the ship and the operational infor-
mation that is currently not available for this study.
In our analysis, there will be modifications and adap-
tations to equation (1). The time interval between
consecutive AIS reports is typically 5 minutes, there-
fore, Cjk is modified as a fraction of the time interval
per day, i.e. 5/(6024)Cjk. Gross tonnage is defined
in accordance to the 1969 International Tonnage
Convention. (IMO 1969) The CO2 emissions factor,
Fjlm, defined in equation (1) is assumed to be inde-
pendent of the fuel type, ship type, and engine type
but dependent on the operational mode. Fjl is taken
to be 3173kg/tonne of fuel used based on a maxi-
mum operating mode during cruising. (Oonk, H.
2003) The emission factor as a function of the oper-
ating mode is as shown in Table 2. The operating
mode is classified based on the ship maximum
speed. (Trika Pitana 2010) The ships maximum
speed is derived based on the AIS information ex-
tracted during the entire duration of 6 months. Using
the AIS information, the maximum speed is set at 3
(1) standard deviations from the mean speed. Speeds
above the maximum speed are identified as outliers
and are removed. The fraction of maximum fuel
used is based on the assumption that the full power
fuel used corresponds to the maximum speed of the
ship. The reduction of fuel used will be based on a
cubic fitted relationship using estimates of a 10,000
TEU ship size operating at 25 knots for maximum
speed. (Notteboom T. 2009) For example, a ship
having a speed of 0.6 of its maximum speed is de-
fined to be operating in the maneuvering mode with
the emission factor calculated as 0.483173=1523kg
per tonne of daily fuel used. No fuel is used when
the speed is at 0 km/hr. The total emissions per day,
Ejklm, can be obtained by summing all the time inter-
vals that have occurred for each ship throughout the
day period within the boundary area.
Table 2 Operating mode and emission factor used.
Operating Speed Classification Fraction of Maximum
Mode Fuel Used
Cruising (0.8-1] of max speed 1.0
Maneuvering (0.2-0.8] of max speed 0.48
Hotelling (0-0.2] of max speed 0.03

3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1 Traffic Density
Figure 2. Average numbers of ships per hour during each
Figure 1, shows the traffic density at the Singapore
month of 2014.
Straits, indicating that there are a lot more ships that
are berthed within the Singapore port limit as com-
pared to those that are sailing along the shipping
lanes. Figure 2, shows the traffic density data col-
lected between 01st January 2014 and 30th June
2014. The hourly number of ships is aggregated to a
day and a month. For example there were about 1660
ships on average per hour in the month of May 2014
while the densest traffic was recorded during Febru-
ary 2014 which has about 1730 ships on average per
hour within the bounding area. The average number
of unique ships in an hour, a day and a month from Figure 3. Average number of ships per hour during each day in
January to Jun is 1708, 2191, 8009 respectively. February 2014.
Considering February 2014 as the period with the
highest traffic, Figure 3 shows that February 12,
2014 was the peak day for marine traffic density. In
contrast, the lowest traffic density was recorded on
February 27, 2014 with 1665 ships. Taking February
12, 2014 as the densest day, the number of ships is
further broken down by each hour as shown in Fig-
ure 4. On the selected date during the time interval
1300H to 1400H, the highest traffic of 1839 ships
was recorded. It is also shown in Figure 1 that the
ship traffic consist of various ship types, so it is nec-
essary to include ship types into the analysis as it
will affect the emission factors. Figure 5 shows that
the majority proportion of ships recorded on Febru- Figure 4. Average number of ships during each hour on Febru-
ary 12, 2014 were Liquid bulk, Tugs, General Cargo, ary 12, 2014.
Container followed by Passenger/Ro-Ro/Cargo and
Solid bulk ship types. About 83% of Liquid bulk
ship types are contributed by tankers. The ship types,
obtained from MPA, are remapped to the Acurex
classification. (EPA 2000) The distribution of ships
registered country of origin is as shown in Figure 6.
Majority of the ships come from Singapore (40.4%),
mixed (23.7%), Indonesia (8.3%) and Panama
(8.1%). Figure 7 shows a box-plot of gross tonnage
(1000) categorized by the different ship types. Con-
tainer and Liquid bulk ship types have large variance
in gross tonnage. Solid bulk ship type has the highest
median gross tonnage across all ship types.

Figure 5. Percentage of ship type distribution on February 12,

2014.
 baseline, the ratio of the number of ships for Con-
Marshall Islands
4.7%
tainer type is obtained from Figure 5. Their relative
GT ratio is obtained from the median line in Figure
7. The relative fuel consumption is taken from the
Liberia GT coefficient in Table 1. The overall relative emis-
4.7%
Malaysia
sion is obtained from Table 3. Relative speed is de-
5.3% rived from the rest of the factors. The low relative
Singapore speed (0.13) for Container ship type indicates that
Panama 40.4% most of them are stationary, possibly involved in
8.1%
loading/unloading activities. GT for Container has a
Indonesia
larger variance and median value as compared to
8.3% Liquid bulk ship type. Multiplied with the relative
fuel consumption and speed, the variance is at 1.74,
Others
23.7%
and this explains the large variance. However, be-
cause the proportion of Container ships is only 0.3
times of Liquid bulk, the overall emission is lower.
Table 3. Estimates for CO2 emission in the Singapore Straits on
Figure 6. Percentage of ship registered country distribution on February 12, 2014 categorized by ship type.
February 12, 2014. Ship Type CO2 emissions %age of CO2 emissions
(tonnes/day) emissions /GT (kg/day)
Liquid bulk 5,814 40.3% 0.36
Container 4,340 30.1% 0.60
Solid bulk 1,155 8.0% 0.27
Tugs 993 6.9% 7.68
General cargo 816 5.7% 0.88
Passenger 387 2.7% 1.05
Passenger/Ro- 582 4.0% 2.19
Ro/Cargo
Others 268 1.9% 0.43
Inland cargo 72 0.5% 3.33
Sail ship 4 0.0% 0.44
Fishing 2 0.0% 1.06
Total 14,432 100.00%

Figure 7. Boxplot of GT categorized by ship type on February Table 4. Comparison of relative factors contributing to overall
12, 2014. emission for Container and Liquid bulk ship types.
Ship Type Rel. Rel. Rel. fuel Rel. Rel.
no. of GT consump- Speed Emission
3.2 CO2 Emissions
ships tion (Derived)
With the highest ship traffic recorded on February Liquid 1 1 1 1 1
12, 2014, the estimated CO2 emission within the bulk
bounding area was therefore determined. Out of the Container 0.3 6.5 2.97 0.13 0.75
1725 average number of ships recorded on that day,
the proportion of liquid bulk and container ships
amount to 46% of the total ships. However, in terms
of CO2 emission, they contributed a higher percent-
age, 70.4%, of the total CO2 emissions. Refer to Ta-
ble 3 for the emissions categorized by ship type. The
CO2 emissions per GT in each ship type category is
also computed. Tugs emit 28.4 times more CO2 as
compared to Solid bulk per GT volume.
Figure 8 shows the box plot distribution of CO2
emissions categorized by ship type. The Container
ship type has higher emissions variance across the
ships as compared to Liquid bulk ship type but the
overall contribution to CO2 emission is lower. This
can be explained by comparing the relative factors
that differentiates the overall emission as shown in Figure 8. Boxplot of CO2 emissions on February 12, 2014 cate-
Table 4. Setting Liquid bulk factors with 1 as the gorized by ship type.
 The CO2 emissions are also analyzed against the
ship registered country of origin. A majority of the
emissions, 28.6%, are contributed by local Singapore
registered ships although the proportion of Singa-
pore ships is much higher at 40.4%. An index of 1.0
for Singapore is created based on the ratio of per-
centage emissions and proportion of ships registered
by the country. Bahamas and Greece registered ships
emit 4.2 and 3.8 times more CO2 per ship respective-
ly as compared to Singapore registered ships. The
proportion of Singapore and Panama ships in each
ship type for the top 6 total emission ship type is as
shown in Table 6. The larger percentage of Singa-
pore ships for liquid bulk, tugs as compared to Pan-
ama explains the larger proportion of total emis- Figure 9. Boxplot of CO2 emissions on February 12, 2014, cat-
sions. Figure 9 shows the box plot distribution of egorized by country type.
CO2 emissions categorized by country of origin.
There is significant difference (p < 0.001) for CO2
emissions across the country types based on a one 3.3 Emissions Reduction
way ANOVA test. The significant emission contrib-
In this section, 3 factors, namely, 1) reduction of
utors, Singapore and Panama, seem to have a smaller Liquid and Container ship types, 2) slow stemming
variance in CO2 emission as compared to the other
of Liquid and Container ship types, 3) use of larger
countries. The exception to this observation is Indo-
GT Liquid and Container ship types, are investigated
nesia and Malaysia country types.
for their contribution to total emissions reduction.
These ship types are targeted because they contribut-
Table 5. Estimates of CO2 emission in Singapore Straits on
ed the most to the CO2 emissions.
February 12, 2014, categorized by country type.
As described in the previous section, the highest
Ship CO2 emis- Proportion %age of Rel
CO2 emissions (70.4%) come from the large propor-
Country sions of ships in emissions Index
tion of Liquid bulk and Container ship types. A 10%
(tonnes/day) %age
reduction in the total number of Liquid bulk ships
Singapore 4,123 40.4% 28.6% 1.0
will reduce total emissions by 4%. Comparatively, a
Others 3,302 23.7% 22.9% 1.4
10% reduction in Container ships will only reduce
Panama 1594 8.1% 11.0% 1.9
the total emissions by 3%.
Liberia 1391 4.7% 9.6% 2.9
By adopting slow steaming and extra slow steam-
Marshall 1172 4.0% 8.1% 2.9
ing operations, it will reduce the amount of emis-
Islands
sions. If Liquid bulk ships reduce their speed by
Hong 592 2.3% 4.1% 2.5
10%, carbon emissions will be reduced by 23.5%.
Kong
(IMO 2000), resulting in the overall emissions being
Malaysia 542 5.3% 3.8% 1.0
reduced by 9.5% using the figures (76.5% 5,814 =
Bahamas 522 1.2% 3.6% 4.2
4,448 tonnes/day) from Table 3. However, if we re-
Indonesia 514 8.3% 3.6% 0.6
simulate all the new Liquid bulk ship type speeds de-
Greece 343 0.9% 2.4% 3.8
rived from the AIS information, there will be more
Malta 337 1.1% 2.3% 3.0
ships crossing into a lower operating mode. (Table
Total 14,432 100% 100% 2) The total emission is reduced by 3.55%. For the
Container ship type, the total emission reduction is
Table 6. Proportion of Singapore and Panama ships within each 2.75% based on simulation of new speed reduction
ship type for the top 6 total emission ship types. of 10%. More intermediate operating modes and
Ship Type sort- Proportion of Sin- Proportion of Pan- ship speeds categories will increase the fuel reduc-
ed by top 6 total gapore ships ama ships tion and emissions.
emission From Table 1, due to the constant in the linear
Liquid bulk 43.0% 30.5% function, if the GT of each ship is increased and the
Container 5.2% 15.9% number of ships is then decreased, the overall fuel
Solid bulk 1.1% 17.2% consumption will reduce and therefore emissions
Tugs 42.9% 6.6% will be decreased. If each Liquid bulk ship GT is in-
General cargo 7.8% 14.6% creased by 10% (using average GT of a Liquid bulk
Passenger 0.5% 1.3% ship of 24,288), the number of ships required is de-
creased by 9.1% to maintain the overall GT of all
Liquid bulk ships. This will result in a 3.9% reduc-
tion in emission for Liquid bulk ships alone or
1.73% in overall emission reduction. Similarly for
the Container ship type, the reduction is 0.73% in
emission for Container ship type or 0.17% of the
overall emission reduction.
In an emission reduction programme, the Singa-
pore and Panama registered ships may be targeted
for emissions reduction first, as they contribute al-
most 39.6% of all emissions.
Assuming the number of Liquid bulk and Con-
tainer ships are expected to grow 2% respectively
yearly, a combination of 10% reduction in speed and
a 10% increase in GT will result in a 9.1% reduction
number of ships for Liquid bulk and Container ship
types and maintain the emissions for a period of
about 2 years.
4 CONCLUSION
The CO2 emission levels for the Singapore Straits
area have been analyzed from January to June 2014
and the highest marine traffic occurred on February
12, 2014. An average of 14432 tonnes of CO2 is
emitted each day using ship gross tonnage and ship
speed information derived from Automatic Identifi-
cation System data. The highest contributor (33%) of
CO2 emissions are the tankers that is classified under
Liquid bulk type. Tugs also emit 28 times more CO2
as compared to Solid bulk ship types per gross ton-
nage volume. Singapore registered ships also con-
tributed 28.6% of CO2 emissions. Several operation-
al factors such as the reduction in the number of
ships, a reduction in operation speed, and an increase
in gross tonnage carrying capacity have been ana-
lyzed to determine the impact on the overall emis-
sion reduction. A 10% reduction in the operational
speed and a 10% increased in gross tonnage of all
Liquid bulk and Container ships can help to maintain
the 2013 level of CO2 emissions for about 2 years
based on a 2% yearly projected growth rate of these
ships. Only together with technical measures Singa-
pore Port will be able to meet the 2020 IMO CO2
emission limits. Simple analysis such as the average
number of ships per day, or per month and, infor-
mation such as the ship type, ship growth, will pro-
vide port authorities key information that they may
use when estimating, projecting and controlling the
carbon emissions along the Singapore straits.
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