Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 596607

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Physics and Chemistry of the Earth

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Rainfallrunoff modelling approach for ungauged catchments: A case study

of Nzhelele River sub-quaternary catchment
R. Makungo a,, J.O. Odiyo a, J.G. Ndiritu b, B. Mwaka c
a
University of Venda, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, P/Bag X5050, Thohoyandou 0950, South Africa
b
University of the Witwatersrand, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, P/Bag X3, Wits 2050, South Africa
c
Department of Water Affairs and Forestry, Water Resource Planning Systems Directorate, P/Bag X313, Pretoria 0001, South Africa

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: This paper presents a rainfallrunoff (RR) modelling method aimed at generating natural streamow
Received 1 February 2010 from the modied nearest neighbour regionalization approach applied to two ungauged sub-quaternary
Received in revised form 12 July 2010 catchments (SQCs) nested within an ungauged quaternary catchment. It differs from the commonly used
Accepted 7 August 2010
nearest neighbour regionalization approach involving a gauged quaternary catchment and an ungauged
Available online 12 August 2010
quaternary catchment. This approach ensures improvement in homogeneity of the estimated hydrolog-
ical parameters. Lack of gauged streamows hampers water resources planning and management, and
Keywords:
water resources systems operation including allocations for environmental ows. The method has been
Rainfallrunoff modelling
Ungauged catchment
applied in the Tshiluvhadi and the Nzhelele Rivers SQCs in quaternary catchment A80A of the Nzhelele
Water balance River Catchment in the Limpopo River Basin. The modelling approach involved computing inow hydro-
Regionalization graph from a water balance model for Mutshedzi Dam. The hydrograph was then used in the calibration
and verication of the RR model for the Tshiluvhadi River SQC using the Mike 11 NAM and Australian
Water Balance Model (AWBM) in order to determine the model with better performance. The perfor-
mance of each of the two models assessed by using the Root Mean Square Error, Nash Sutcliffe coefcient
of efciency, the correlation coefcient, % Bias and the overall water balance error was good and compa-
rable. The two models, however, tended to underestimate the high ows. The models were used to sim-
ulate runoff hydrographs for the ungauged Nzhelele River SQC using model parameters obtained from the
Tshiluvhadi SQC RR modelling. The streamow hydrographs for the Nzhelele River SQC simulated from
both the models are comparable and show behaviour similar to that reported in earlier studies. They also
correlate well with the areal rainfall for the Nzhelele River SQC. The modelling results show that the
approach is reasonably good and therefore can be used in predicting runoff in ungauged catchments.
The simulated runoff hydrographs can be used in water resources planning and management, and water
resources systems operation.
2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction dictions or for model calibration, the catchment would be classied

Streamow is one of the most important hydrological variables
required for water resources planning and management, and water
resources systems operation including allocations for environmen-
tal ows. However, many river catchments are ungauged for
streamow data. According to Sivapalan et al. (2003), an unga-
uged catchment is one with inadequate records (in terms of both
data quantity and quality) of hydrological observations to enable
computation of hydrological variables of interest (both water
quantity and/or quality) at the appropriate spatial and temporal
scales, and to the accuracy acceptable for practical applications.
For example, if the variable of interest has not been measured at
the required resolution or for the length of period required for pre-
Corresponding author. Tel.: +27 15 962 8568; fax: +27 15 962 8597.
E-mail address: rachel.makungo@univen.ac.za (R. Makungo).
as ungauged with respect to this variable. Ungauged catchments
are common in rural and remote areas, for example Nzhelele River
Catchment in the Limpopo Province of South Africa (SA) which is
the study area of this research.
Rainfallrunoff models have been used to predict streamow in
ungauged catchments in many studies. Typically, rainfallrunoff
modelling requires streamow data for calibration and verica-
tion. Since such data is not available in ungauged catchments,
other approaches may need to be resorted to in order to obtain rep-
resentative streamows.
De Hamer et al. (2007) and Liebe et al. (2008) have used water
balance from a reservoir to generate streamow. De Hamer et al.
(2007) used the water balance of a reservoir for calibrating a rain-
fallrunoff model for two small ungauged catchments in Zimba-
bwe. The inow was estimated by relating the increase in water
level after a rain event and the dimensions of the reservoirs. Liebe

1474-7065/$ - see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.pce.2010.08.001
 R. Makungo et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 596607
et al. (2008) related a remotely sensed time series of reservoir sur-
face areas with the known relationship between reservoir volume
and surface area to obtain changes in reservoir storage. These were
used to calibrate and verify ows from a water balance model in
the Upper East Region of Ghana. The limitations of this approach
are data requirements, especially the repeated coverage with satel-
lite images, can be challenging and expensive if these data cannot
be obtained through a cost-free arrangement. The application of
the method requires trained personnel who are familiar with re-
mote sensing, GIS, and hydrology. The accuracy of storage volume
estimates determined with remote sensing is higher, where reser-
voirs have gentle side slopes, but may be less accurate, where
topography is steep.
The current study differs from that of Liebe et al. (2008) because
it uses the observed data sets including dam water levels (used to
compute the dam storage), rainfall, evaporation, uncontrolled spills
and abstractions in the water balance model to estimate the inow
hydrograph into the reservoir. The computation of the inows with
daily data for a relatively longer period (5 years) is likely to pro-
duce an inow time series which is more natural, realistic and rep-
resentative. To the knowledge of the authors, this type of study has
not been done previously in the study area.
Mike 11 NAM (DHI, 2004) and AWBM (Boughton, 2004) daily
models were used for RR modelling for ungauged sub-quaternary
catchments in the study in preference to the more complex south
African daily models (e.g. ACRU (Schulze, 1995) and VTI (Hughes
and Sami, 1994) that require lots of data, experience, time and ef-
fort. In particular, the study presents the rst application of the
daily AWBM for RR modelling in SA.
Regionalization techniques are used to transfer model parame-
ters from catchments with known parameters to ungauged catch-
ments of similar hydrological characteristics. Regionalization
techniques that are commonly used include the model averaging
framework (McIntyre et al., 2005; Reichl et al., 2006); the use of
parameter sets from the closest upstream and downstream catch-
ments; the parameter regression approach (Hughes, 1989; Servat
and Dezetter, 1993; Seibert, 1999; Peel et al., 2000; Merz and
Bloschl, 2004; Vogel, 2005), the use of parameter values from the
nearest gauged catchment (nearest neighbour approach) (Merz
and Bloschl, 2004; Chiew and Siriwardena, 2005; He and Brdossy,
2007) and parameter regionalization (Kapangaziwiri and Hughes,
2008). Zhang and Chiew (2009) described three regionalization
methods that have been widely used to choose the donor gauged
catchment whose optimized parameter values are used to model
runoff for the target ungauged catchment. These are regression,
spatial proximity (nearest neighbour approach), and physical sim-
ilarity methods. Parajka et al. (2005) gives a review of the applica-
tions of these regionalization methods in a number of studies
including their successes and failures.
The nearest neighbour approach has been found to produce the
best results as compared to most of the above methods in studies
such as Merz and Bloschl (2004) and Chiew and Siriwardena
(2005). Zhang and Chiew (2009) noted that recent studies suggest
that regression method performs worse than the spatial proximity
and physical similarity methods (Bardossy, 2007; McIntyre et al.,
2005; Oudin et al., 2008; Parajka et al., 2007), though there is an
unresolved debate on whether spatial/geographical proximity nec-
essarily implies homogeneous hydrological response in some areas
(for example see Vandewiele and Elias, 1995; Shu and Burn, 2003;
Parajka et al., 2005).
Regionalization techniques have been applied for the pur-
poses of deriving ow duration curves for generation of syn-
thetic time series of daily discharges, regional ood estimation
and rainfallrunoff modelling in ungaguged catchments in SA.
Smakhtin et al. (1997) developed a regionalization method that
allows derivation of 1-day annual and seasonal ow duration
597
curves using regional observed streamow data and used the
curves to generate a complete synthetic time series of daily dis-
charges in ungauged locations. The method is applicable in any
drainage regions of SA. The initial tests of the proposed tech-
nique gave satisfactory daily ow simulations at an ungauged
site (Smakhtin et al., 1997).
van Bladeren (1993), Mkhandi and Kachroo (1997), and Meigh
et al. (1997) developed regression models for regional ood esti-
mation and ood frequency analysis in SA. The aim of developing
regional ood estimation methods was to produce practical solu-
tions which provide ood estimation tools at ungauged sites. The
results of the studies indicated that a grouping of catchments
based on geographical location rather than catchment area is pref-
erable (Kjeldsen et al., 2001). The latter study attempted to relate
the mean annual ood (MAF) to site characteristics of ungauged
catchments in KwaZulu-Natal, SA. This was done to aid in the esti-
mation of the MAF using the index-ood method at ungauged sites
that lack the index-ood parameter. The study revealed problems
with the estimation of the mean annual ood in the coastal areas
of the study region (Kjeldsen et al., 2001).
The parameterization of the quaternary catchments in SA
(Midgley et al., 1994) in the WR90 study which was upgraded to
WR2005, as reported in Kapangaziwiri and Hughes (2008) were
both achieved by mapping parameters from gauged to ungauged
basins on the basis of similar basin physical properties and hydro-
logical response. These data are only available as monthly ow
time series on quaternary catchment scale and cannot be readily
used for daily water resource assessments particularly at a scale
smaller than the quaternary scale. Though, simple linear scaling
function is available to downscale the monthly ow time series
to a sub-quaternary scale, Hughes (2004) explained that it is not
adequate since the relationship between ow volumes from a
sub-catchment and the total ow volume for the whole catchment
depends upon a wide range of factors. Such factors include rainfall,
evaporation, soil, geology and land cover characteristics and the
way in which they inuence runoff generation processes.
Kapangaziwiri and Hughes (2008) presented the development
of an alternative parameter regionalization approach based on
the physical attributes of a basin. The study investigated a total
of 71 basins from Southern Africa on physically based parameters
which were compared against those of the current regionalized
parameters for the same inputs, most of which were taken from
Midgley et al. (1994). Of the 30 SA basins investigated only two
failed to produce results that were as good as the current regional-
ized parameter sets or better (Kapangaziwiri and Hughes, 2008).
The approach demonstrated the potential of using measurable
physical basin attributes to directly quantify the soil moisture
accounting, runoff, recharge and inltration parameters of the Pit-
man model (Kapangaziwiri and Hughes, 2008).
Wolf et al. (2009) presented Hydrological Response Units
regionalization method that is dependent on the differentiation
of landscape classes to allow transfer of model parameters to
catchments with comparable relief characteristics. Comparative
modelling was done to determine model parameter selections that
are especially signicant and sensitive with regard to different
landscape classes and relief characteristics in German test sites
(Wolf et al., 2009). The approach yielded reliable results in the Ger-
man test sites. In the next step of this research the acquired and
post-calibrated Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) model
parameter selections from the three German test sites were to
be transferred to catchments in SA with corresponding landscape
characteristics (Wolf et al., 2009).
The above literature review shows that a number of regionaliza-
tion methods have been applied in SA and elsewhere with varied
results/successes. The review further shows that the nearest neigh-
bour regionalization approach mostly produce better results than
598 R. Makungo et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 596607
other methods, though its limitations in some areas have been
recognized.
The modied nearest neighbour regionalization approach in
which a reservoir water balance is used to generate natural inow
time series for calibration and verication of RR models for an
ungauged SQC to allow the transfer of RR modelling parameters
from a SQC ungauged for natural streamows to model ows in
a neighbouring ungauged SQC has been proposed in this study.
The time (day) and spatial (sub-quaternary catchment) scales at
which the current approach is proposed to work is of better reso-
lution than the other methods that have been used in SA at
monthly and quaternary catchment or catchment scales. Thus,
the data generated from this approach can be readily used for daily
water resources assessments at a sub-quaternary catchment scale
and hence can easily be used for near-real time modelling.
2. The study area
The study area falls under quaternary catchment A80A of the
Nzhelele River Catchment (Fig. 1) which is located in the northern
region of the Limpopo Province of SA. It is on the leeward side of
the Soutpansberg Mountains with an average rainfall of 350
400 mm/annum. The rainfall is seasonal and occurs during sum-
mer months from OctoberMarch. The location of the study area
is between 22530 15.800 S and 22540 500 S latitudes and
30110 10.200 E and 30110 23.500 E longitudes (Fig. 2).
3. Proposed regionalization approach
The proposed modied nearest neighbour regionalization ap-
proach has been necessitated by lack of natural streamow data
in the study area. The only stream gauging station (A8H011) in
the A80A quaternary catchment, which was in operation from
1991 to 2000, is located immediately after the Mutshedzi Dam
for the purpose of monitoring the downstream ow releases from
the dam on the Mutshedzi River. The streamow data from this
gauging station have been impacted on by the Mutshedzi Dam.
Thus, with respect to natural streamow data required for model
calibration and validation, the A80A quaternary catchment is
ungauged.
It was therefore necessary to obtain a time series of natural in-
ows into the Mutshedzi Dam using the reservoir water balance.
Fig. 1. Location of quaternary catchment A80A.
This inow time series was used to calibrate the Mike 11 NAM
and AWBM rainfallrunoff models for the ungauged Tshiluvhadi
SQC to determine the model parameters. The AWBM was used
for comparing the simulated runoff results with those obtained
from Mike 11 NAM. The derived model parameters were then
transferred for use in simulating the streamow hydrograph for
the ungauged Nzhelele River SQC which is the SQC of interest. This
approach differs from the commonly used nearest neighbour
regionalization approach involving a gauged quaternary catchment
and an ungauged quaternary catchment. The proposed modied
nearest neighbour regionalization approach in this study is there-
fore a slight modication of the nearest neighbour regionalization
approach.
3.1. Data requirements and sources
The required data sets include rainfall, evaporation, uncon-
trolled spills, downstream ow releases, dam water levels, stor-
age-area relationship for Mutshedzi Dam, domestic abstractions,
area under irrigation, crop factors, types of crops grown and the
irrigation schedule. Evaporation, uncontrolled spills, downstream
ow releases, dam water levels and storage-area relationships for
Mutshedzi Dam were obtained from the Department of Water Af-
fairs (DWA) while rainfall data was obtained from the South Afri-
can Weather Services (SAWS). Irrigation data and the crop factors
were obtained from the farmers and Allen et al. (1998) respec-
tively. The domestic abstractions were obtained from the Mut-
shedzi Water Treatment Plant. The station numbers for the
rainfall, evaporation, downstream ow releases and uncontrolled
spills are 0766327, A8E004, A8H011, and A8R004 respectively.
These data sets were used in the computation of the inows into
the Mutshedzi Dam. The locations of rainfall, evaporation and
streamow stations are shown in Fig. 2.
The crop factors, the area under irrigation, crops grown, irriga-
tion schedule and the evaporation data from station number
A8E004 were used to compute the irrigation water demand. This
was done to determine the highest amount of water required for
irrigation, and was also useful in establishing the signicance of
irrigation water use and its inuence on the computed inows to
justify the exclusion of daily irrigation time series demand from
the water balance. This was necessary because it was not possible
to obtain the daily irrigation time series data.
Rainfall data for station numbers 0766327, 0766324, 0766269,
and 0766563 and evaporation data for station number A8E004
were used as inputs into the Mike 11 NAM rainfallrunoff model.
The evaporation data from A8E004 station together with the
weighted areal rainfall computed in Mike 11 NAM rainfallrunoff
model were also used for rainfallrunoff modelling using the
AWBM.
3.2. Data analysis methods
3.2.1. Determining inow time series into Mutshedzi Dam
The inow into the dam has been computed using the water
balance equation below
Idam Q d Q irr Q s E  Ds  R Q r 1
where, Idam is the inow into the dam, Qd are the domestic abstrac-
tions, Qirr are the irrigation abstractions, Qs are the uncontrolled
spills, E are the evaporation, R is the rainfall, Qr are the downstream
ow releases, and Ds is the change in storage. All the above param-
eters are in m3/day. Eq. (1) was used to compute the inow into the
dam taking into account the estimated irrigation water demand. To
compute the inow into the dam excluding the estimated irrigation
water demand, the following equation was used:
 R. Makungo et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 596607
Fig. 2. Locations of rainfall, evaporation and streamow.
Idam Q d Q s E  Ds  R Q r
This was done to establish the signicance of irrigation water
use on the computed inows and to justify the exclusion of daily
irrigation time series demand from the water balance. Initial
checking of all the data sets and minimum patching of evaporation
data series using arithmetic mean were done. Minimum patching
of daily domestic abstractions was also done using the arithmetic
mean method, where possible (i.e. in cases, where there were miss-
ing data for a long period of time, e.g. 1 year, patching was not
done and that period was therefore not included in the analysis).
The irrigation water demands for the two irrigation schemes (Cor-
don and Phadzima) located upstream of Mutshedzi Dam were
computed using:
Q irr ET o  A
3
where Qirr is the daily irrigation demand in m /day, A is the area irri-
gated daily in m2/day and ETo is the reference crop evapotranspira-
tion in m/day. Further details on computation of ETo are found in
Makungo (2009).
The dam downstream ow releases were only available for the
period 1991/02/132000/02/15 while the domestic abstractions
were available from 1994/04/22 to 2007/10/31 with some years
having completely no data. This has limited the computation of
the water balance to the period 1994/04/221999/03/06. Though
the computation would have been expected to continue up to
2000/02/15, this was not possible because there were no domestic
abstractions data between this date and 1999/03/06.
It is important to note that the computed inow into the dam
includes the inows from both the Tshiluvhadi and Phangani Riv-
ers. Phangani River is an intermittent ungauged stream that only
ows during periods of high rainfall. It thus only contributes ows
into the Mutshedzi Dam during high ow periods.
3.2.2. Rainfallrunoff modelling for Tshiluvhadi and Nzhelele River
sub-quaternary catchments
3.2.2.1. Delineation of the sub-quaternary catchments. The sub-qua-
ternary catchments drained by the upper part of Nzhelele and
Tshiluvhadi Rivers in quaternary catchment A80A were delineated
599
2 from the 1:50000 topographical map and a topographical map ob-
tained from the GRDM software (Dennis and Wentzel, 2006) and
their respective areas determined.
Since the purpose of the water balance was to obtain natural
ows upstream of the dam, the sub-quaternary catchment had to
be delineated in such a way that its outlet is at the inlet of
Tshiluvhadi River into the dam. This is because both Tshiluvhadi
and Phangani Rivers that contribute inows into the dam are in
different sub-quaternary catchments and it was not possible to
establish one inow outlet into the dam for both and could thus
only be treated separately. A combined inlet would also have been
impacted by the dam making it difcult to generate natural
inows.
3
3.2.2.2. Mike 11 NAM and AWBM models structure, setup, calibration,
and verication. The Mike 11 NAM model structure (Fig. 3) is an
imitation of the land phase of the hydrological cycle (DHI, 2004).
The model simulates the rainfallrunoff process by continuously
accounting for the water content in four different and mutually
interrelated storages that represent different physical elements of
the catchment, which are snow storage, surface storage, lower or
root zone storage and groundwater storage (Madsen et al., 2002).
The main inputs of the model are evaporation and rainfall data. Ta-
ble 1 provides the description of the Mike 11 NAM model
parameters.
The AWBM is a conceptual model developed from the concept
of saturation overland ow generation of runoff (Wheater et al.,
1993). At each time step, rainfall is added to each of the surface
stores and evapotranspiration is subtracted (Boughton, 2004). If
there is any excess from any store, it becomes runoff and is divided
between surface runoff and baseow (Boughton, 2004). The struc-
ture of the AWBM is shown in Fig. 4 while the description of the
model parameters is given in Table 2.
The sub-quaternary catchment area, weighted areal rainfall,
evaporation and streamow data were required for the models set
up for the Tshiluvhadi sub-quaternary catchment. These data were
input into the models and were used in the calibration and verica-
tion. The weighted areal rainfall was automatically computed by
600 R. Makungo et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 596607

Fig. 3. Mike 11 NAM model structure (DHI, 2004).

Table 1
Description of the Mike 11 NAM model parameters (source: DHI, 2004).

Parameter Description Parameter Description

QOF The part of PN that contributes to overland ow hSAT Saturation zone
QIF Interow contribution Umax Upper limit of the amount of water in the surface storage
OF Overland ow P Precipitation
IF Interow Ep Potential evapotranspiration
CK1 Inow hydrograph PN Excess water that gives rise to overland ow
CK2 Outow hydrograph PS Excess melt water contribution
Sy Specic yield Ea Actual evapotranspiration
Lmax Upper limit of the amount of water in root zone storage. DL Portion of the water available for inltration
G Groundwater recharge CAFLUX Capillary ux
CKBF Time constant for routing baseow GWL Groundwater table below the ground surface
BF Baseow GWLBF0 The maximum groundwater table depth
L Depth of the lower zone storage GWPUMP Net groundwater abstraction
hwp Wilting point CQOF Overland ow runoff coefcient
hFC Field capacity CKIF Time constant for interow from the surface storage
TG Threshold value for recharge CK1,2 Time constant for overland ow and interow routing
TOF Threshold value for overland ow TIF Threshold value for interow

the Mike 11 NAM rainfallrunoff model from point rainfall from
station numbers 0766269 and 0766327 using Thiessen polygon
method. The Shufed Complex Evolution optimizer in-built within
Mike 11 was used in auto calibration using the root mean square
error (RMSE) as an objective function. Rosenbrock single start opti-
mization technique (Rosenbrock, 1960) was selected for the most
efcient AWBM model calibration also using RMSE as an objective
function. The daily data sets for a period of 3 years (1994/04/22
1997/04/22) and a period of 2 years (1997/04/231999/03/06)
were used for model calibration and verication respectively. Three
years is the minimum calibration period recommended by DHI
(2004).
The Nash Sutcliffe coefcient of efciency (E) (Nash and Sutcliffe,
1970), correlation coefcient (R) (van Liew et al., 2007; Moriasi
 R. Makungo et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 596607 601

4. Results and discussion

4.1. Computed inow into Mutshedzi Dam

The inow into Mutshedzi Dam computed from the water bal-
ance Eq. (2) using the downstream ow releases, domestic water
abstractions, rainfall, evaporation, uncontrolled spills and dam
water storage has been presented in Fig. 5. The computed inow
time series was considered reasonable. The discontinuity observed
in the inow time series between 1996/02/01 and 1996/03/31 was
because the domestic abstractions data for Mutshedzi Water Treat-
ment Plant were not available for that period. It was therefore not
possible to compute inow time series using water balance equa-
tion during that period.
The inows into the dam computed above from the water bal-
ance equation in which the irrigation water demand was excluded
Fig. 4. Structure of the AWBM model (Source: Boughton, 2006). was compared with the inows into the dam computed with the
irrigation water demand included (Fig. 6). The results show that
incorporating the irrigation water demand in the computation
Table 2
Description of the AWBM model parameters (Boughton, 2006). has negligible effect compared to the scenario that excludes the
irrigation water demand in its computation. Its exclusion increases
Parameter Description
the inows by a maximum of 0.004 m3/day in some of the days.
P Precipitation This shows that the actual irrigation water demand has negligible
E Evaporation
effects on the inows into the dam and justies the exclusion of
A1 Partial area of smallest store
A2 Partial area of middle store this component in the computation of the inow time series for
A3 Partial area of largest store Mutshedzi Dam from the water balance equation. This was neces-
BFI Baseow index sitated by lack of daily time series of irrigation water demand.
C1 Surface storage capacity of smallest store
C2 Surface storage capacity of middle store
C3 Surface storage capacity of largest store
KBase Baseow recession constant 4.2. Rainfallrunoff modelling for Tshiluvhadi and Nzhelele sub-
KSurf Surface runoff recession constant quaternary catchments

The delineated sub-quaternary catchments of the Nzhelele and

Tshiluvhadi Rivers whose areas have been used in rainfallrunoff
et al., 2007), RMSE, the overall water balance error (OWBE) and %
modelling are represented by A and B, respectively (Fig. 7). Their
Bias (PBIAS) (Yapo et al., 1996; Gupta et al., 1999) were used to as-
estimated areas are 98.25 and 85 km2 respectively. Since it was
sess the calibration and verication performances of the models.
not possible to separate the inow into Mutshedzi Dam into two
Verication was performed to assess whether the calibrated param-
separate components for Phangani and Tshiluvhadi sub-quater-
eter values could be used to successfully estimate streamow for an
nary catchments, the Phangani sub-quaternary catchment has
independent test period that was not used to calibrate the model.
not been included in the rainfallrunoff modelling and therefore
Weighted areal rainfall computed from observed point daily
it was not necessary to delineate the SQC. This was based on the
rainfall for station numbers 0766327, 0766324, and 0766563; ob-
fact that Phangani River is intermittent and its smaller area
served daily evaporation and model parameters obtained from
(7 km2) which is only 8% of the total inow area of Tshiluvhadi
Tshiluvhadi sub-quaternary catchment calibration were used for
and Phangani sub-quaternary catchments (92 km2), does not con-
Mike 11 NAM and AWBM rainfallrunoff modelling for the Nzhe-
tribute signicant ows compared to the bulk of the inow area.
lele River sub-quaternary catchment. The data for the period
Several trials during the calibration of Mike 11 NAM for
1991/07/012000/07/31 was used in the latter simulations. The
Tshiluvhadi SQC revealed that the most sensitive parameters pro-
transfer of model parameters was done on the basis of similar
vided in Table 1 are Lmax, Umax, CQOF, and CKIF. These ndings
physical and hydrological characteristics (Table 3).
are similar to those in Keskin et al. (2007). The parameters Lmax,
Umax, CQOF, and CKIF dene the base ow in the basin (Keskin
Table 3
et al., 2007). It was also found that the parameters TOF and TIF (Ta-
Comparison of hydrologic conditions in Tshiluvhadi and Nzhelele SQCs. ble 1) do not have much inuence on the total runoff volume. This
nding was also conrmed by Keskin et al. (2007) while calibrating
Hydrologic Tshiluvhadi SQC Nzhelele SQC
condition
a rainfallrunoff model for Yuvacik Dam Basin in Turkey. All the
parameters obtained from the Mike 11 NAM calibration for
Soil type Medium sandy clay loam to Medium sandy clay loam to
sandy clay loam sandy clay loam
Tshiluvhadi SQC are given in Table 4. Similarly, the parameters ob-
Geology Basalt and sandstone of the Basalt and sandstone of the tained from the AWBM model calibration for Tshiluvhadi SQC are
Soutpansberg Group with Soutpansberg Group with given in Table 5. The parameters from both the models fall within
diabase dykes intrusions diabase dykes intrusions the acceptable lower and upper limits of the individual model
Land use Settlement and subsistence Settlement and subsistence
parameters.
farming farming
Mean annual 350400 350400 The Mike 11 NAM and AWBM rainfallrunoff simulated and ob-
rainfall (mm) served results have been presented in Figs. 8 and 9, and compared
Mean annual 13001400 13001400 using the measures of performance in Table 6. All the results have
evaporation been presented only for part of the calibration and verication
(mm)
Topography (m) 8001280 8001280
periods to avoid overcrowding. The E value for the calibration
run is slightly lower than for the verication run for both models.
602 R. Makungo et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 596607

Computed Inflow (x106 m3/day)

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
1994/04/22
1994/06/22
1994/08/22
1994/10/22
1994/12/22
1995/02/22
1995/04/22
1995/06/22
1995/08/22
1995/10/22
1995/12/22
1996/02/22
1996/04/22
1996/06/22
1996/08/22
1996/10/22
1996/12/22
1997/02/22
1997/04/22
1997/06/22
1997/08/22
1997/10/22
1997/12/22
1998/02/22
1998/04/22
1998/06/22
1998/08/22
1998/10/22
1998/12/22
1999/02/22
Date (yyyy/mm/dd)

Fig. 5. Computed inow into the Mutshedzi Dam.

3.00
InflowWithNoIrr

2.50 InflowWithIrr
Inflow (x 10 m /day)

2.00
3
6

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
1998/01/01
1998/01/21
1998/02/10
1998/03/02
1998/03/22
1998/04/11
1998/05/01
1998/05/21
1998/06/10
1998/06/30
1998/07/20
1998/08/09
1998/08/29
1998/09/18
1998/10/08
1998/10/28
1998/11/17
1998/12/07
1998/12/27
1999/01/16
1999/02/05
1999/02/25

Time (yyyy/mm/dd)

Fig. 6. Comparison of inows into Mutshedzi Dam with and without irrigation water supply.

The improvement of the satisfactory E values during verication and they suggest a reasonable modelling of runoff according to
indicates that reasonably good model parameters were obtained Chiew and McMahon (1993). The E values for the AWBM rain-
during the calibration. fallrunoff model are comparable though slightly higher than
Shamsudin and Hashim (2002) indicated that missing data, on those of MIKE 11 NAM rainfallrunoff model (Table 6).
site data acquisition and the nature of rainfall pattern affected cal- The computed R values for both the calibration and verication
ibration of the Mike 11 NAM rainfallrunoff modelling for the Lay- runs with both models (Table 6) are acceptable according to Van
ang River, resulting in an E value of 0.75. The study area is Liew et al. (2007). Since the R values are all >0.8 and are approach-
characterized by uneven rainfall distribution and missing data that ing 1, the relationship between the simulated and measured values
could have affected the E value. The E values obtained in the cur- tends towards a perfect positive linear relationship according to
rent study fall within the range 0.660.82 obtained by Vai- Moriasi et al. (2007). The computed RMSE for both the calibration
tieku niene (2005) during the calibration of the Mike 11 NAM and the verication runs for both models (Table 6) are reasonable
rainfallrunoff model for 66 catchments in the Lithuanian River Ba- as they fall within the ranges obtained in other studies. RMSE val-
sin. In the latter study, the lower E values were due to inadequately ues in the ranges 0.0670.92 and 0.051.03 have been obtained in
distributed precipitation data and errors in the observed discharge. studies by Madsen et al. (2002) and Madsen (2003) respectively.
Xu and Argent (2005) used the Rosenbrock Single Start optimi- The RMSE values obtained from both the calibration and verica-
zation method while calibrating AWBM model for 37 catchments tion of the Mike 11 NAM rainfallrunoff model are lower than
in the Port Phillip Bay Catchment, Australia. The E values varying those obtained from the AWBM rainfallrunoff model. Thus Mike
from 0.16 to 0.85, with a median across 37 gauged catchments of 11 NAM model did slightly better than AWBM with regard to RMSE
0.60 were obtained in the latter study. Thus, E values obtained in since a perfect value according to Shamsudin and Hashim (2002) is
this study are acceptable as they are within the ranges obtained zero.
in other studies and fall within the reasonable and good modelling The OWBE for both the models (Table 6) fall within the accept-
range described by Chiew and McMahon (1993). The E values for able ranges of 510% (Madsen et al., 2002). The OWBE obtained
the calibration and verication runs for both the models are >0.6 from the AWBM and Mike 11 NAM rainfallrunoff models suggest
 R. Makungo et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 596607 603

Fig. 7. Delineated sub-quaternary catchments for the Nzhelele and Mutshedzi Rivers.

Table 4 The Mike 11 NAM model calibration and verication runs

Parameter values resulting from auto calibration of MIKE 11 NAM and default values. underestimated most of the peak ows (Figs. 8 and 9). The peak
Parameter Lower limit Upper limit Modelled value ow which occurred on 1998/10/18 was well predicted though it
Umax (mm) 5 35 10.5 was of relatively small magnitude (Fig. 9). Most of the low ows
Lmax (mm) 50 350 267 for the calibration run were well predicted (Fig. 8). The estimation
CQOF () 0 1 0.82 of the low ows on verication run approached the observed val-
CKIF (h) 500 1000 856.3 ues if not slightly underestimated them. The model underesti-
CK 1,2 (h) 3 72 29.1
mated most of the peak ows for the calibration run (Fig. 8). The
TG 0 1 0.129
CKBF (h) 50 5000 3066 AWBM overestimated most of the small to medium peak ows
TOF 0 1 0.478 and underestimated the major peak ows in both calibration and
TIF 0 1 0.569 verication runs (Figs. 8 and 9). For example, the peak ows which
occurred on 1995/03/28, 1995/08/12, 1997/09/15, 1997/12/09,
1998/10/20, 1998/11/10, etc. were overestimated while the peak
ows which occurred on 1995/02/20, 1995/04/29, 1998/01/30,
Table 5 and 1998/12/15 were underestimated. Both models were able to
Parameter values resulting from the calibration of AWBM rainfallrunoff model and estimate the low ow events correctly for both the calibration
default values.
and the verication runs, except in a few cases, where they under-
Parameter Lower limit Upper limit Modelled value estimated the low ows (Figs. 8 and 9).
A1 0 1 0.74 The inclusion of the contribution from Phangani River in the in-
A2 0 1 0.26 ow from the water balance equation can partly explain the under-
BFI 0 1 0.67 estimation of the peak ows by the models. This therefore is an
C1 0 50 0.00
area that requires improvement. However, the Mike 11 NAM has
C2 0 200 126.92
C3 0 500 119.10 generally been known to underestimate peak ows as observed
KBase 0 1 0.96 in the results of studies such as Madsen et al. (2002), Madsen
KSurf 0 1 0.84 (2003), and Craciun (2003). The latter study noted that the hydro-
logical phenomena during high ow periods are too complex for
rainfallrunoff models to predict accurately.
that the models underestimated the simulated runoff since the re- Good and reasonable objective measures (i.e. RMSE, E, R, PBIAS,
sults indicate that the observed ows are greater than the simu- and OWBE) were obtained during calibration and verication of
lated ows. However, the OWBE obtained from the AWBM are both the Mike 11 NAM and AWBM rainfallrunoff models (Table 6).
lower than those obtained from Mike 11 NAM due to the fact that This indicates that reasonably good model parameters were ob-
AWBM overestimated some of the peak ows while Mike 11 NAM tained during model calibration. Thus, the parameter sets obtained
underestimated some of the peak ows. Madsen et al. (2002) indi- in calibration can be transferred to another sub-quaternary catch-
cated that the inherent uncertainties in measuring the catchment ment with similar hydrological conditions (see Table 3) for use in
average rainfall and the corresponding runoff make it difcult to rainfallrunoff modelling. The results in Table 6 and Figs. 8 and 9
obtain perfect water balance. The computed PBIAS for the Mike show that the AWBM and Mike 11 NAM rainfallrunoff models
11 NAM were 10.45% and 10.09% respectively while PBIAS for have generally comparable performance in the Tshiluvhadi SQC
AWBM calibration and verication runs were 3.94% and 5.36% though the AWBM performed relatively better than the Mike 11
respectively (Table 6). The PBIAS values obtained in the calibration NAM. It was therefore decided to simulate the runoff hydrograph
and verication of Mike 11 NAM and AWBM are acceptable and for the ungauged Nzhelele River SQC, which is within the same
indicate underestimation of simulated runoff according to Yapo quaternary catchment, using both models. The results were then
et al. (1996). compared.
604 R. Makungo et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 596607

9
8 AWBM
7 Mike 11 NAM
6 Observed

Runoff (m /s)
3 5
4
3
2
1
0
1994/12/22
1995/01/01
1995/01/11
1995/01/21
1995/01/31
1995/02/10
1995/02/20
1995/03/02
1995/03/12
1995/03/22
1995/04/01
1995/04/11
1995/04/21
1995/05/01
1995/05/11
1995/05/21
1995/05/31
1995/06/10
1995/06/20
1995/06/30
1995/07/10
1995/07/20
1995/07/30
1995/08/09
1995/08/19
1995/08/29
1995/09/08
1995/09/18
1995/09/28
1995/10/08
1995/10/18
1995/10/28
1995/11/07
1995/11/17
1995/11/27
1995/12/07
1995/12/17
Date (yyyy/mm/dd)

Fig. 8. Comparisons of the Mike 11 NAM, AWBM and observed runoff hydrographs for the calibration run of Mutshedzi SQC.

AWBM
14
Mike 11 NAM
12 Observed

10
Discharge (m /s)
3

0
1997/08/23
1997/09/02
1997/09/12
1997/09/22
1997/10/02
1997/10/12
1997/10/22
1997/11/01
1997/11/11
1997/11/21
1997/12/01
1997/12/11
1997/12/21
1997/12/31
1998/01/10
1998/01/20
1998/01/30
1998/02/09
1998/02/19
1998/03/01
1998/03/11
1998/03/21
1998/03/31
1998/04/10
1998/04/20
1998/04/30
1998/05/10
1998/05/20
1998/05/30
1998/06/09
1998/06/19
1998/06/29
1998/07/09
1998/07/19
1998/07/29
1998/08/08
1998/08/18
1998/08/28
1998/09/07
1998/09/17
1998/09/27
1998/10/07
1998/10/17
1998/10/27
1998/11/06
1998/11/16
1998/11/26
1998/12/06
1998/12/16
1998/12/26

Date (yyyy/mm/dd)

Fig. 9. Comparisons of the Mike 11 NAM, AWBM and observed runoff hydrographs for the verication run of Mutshedzi SQC.

Table 6
Summary of Mike 11 NAM and AWBM models performance for Tshiluvhadi SQC.

Performance measure Mike 11 NAM AWBM Acceptable ranges

Calibration Verication Calibration Verication
Nash Sutcliffe coefcient of efciency 0.67 0.74 0.72 0.77 P0.6- Satisfactorya P 0.8- Gooda
RMSE 0.96 0.92 1.01 1.14 0 = Perfectb
Overall water balance error (%) 9.89 9.13 3.34 4.37 510%- Acceptablec
Correlation coefcient 0.82 0.86 0.85 0.88 >0.5- Acceptabled
PBIAS (%) 10.45 10.09 3.94 5.36 25%- Acceptablee
a
Chiew and McMahon (1993).
b
Shamsudin and Hashim (2002).
c
Madsen et al. (2002).
d
Van Liew et al. (2007).
e
Yapo et al. (1996).

The simulated runoff for Nzhelele River has been obtained using
the model parameters in Tables 4 and 5 which were adopted based
on the modied nearest neighbour regionalization technique. The
simulated ows are comparable though the AWBM simulated
ows are generally higher than the Mike 11 NAM simulated ows
(Fig. 10).
Figs. 11 and 12 show the correlation of the simulated runoff and
the areal rainfall hydrographs for the Nzhelele River SQC. The
graphs show that the major peak rainfall events are well correlated
with the major peak runoff events. This shows that the runoffs sim-
ulated by the AWBM and Mike 11 NAM models for Nzhelele River
at Siloam Village are reasonable.
 Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm)

100
110
120
130
140
150
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160

10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
3

0
Simulated runoff (m /s)
1991/07/01 1991/07/01

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40

1991/08/20 1991/08/20
1991/10/09 1991/10/09 1995/10/01
1991/11/28 1991/11/28 1995/12/01
1992/01/17 1992/01/17 1996/02/01
1992/03/07 1992/03/07
1992/04/26 1992/04/26 1996/04/01
1992/06/15 1992/06/15 1996/06/01
1992/08/04 1992/08/04 1996/08/01
1992/09/23 1992/09/23

Rainfall
1992/11/12 1992/11/12 1996/10/01
1993/01/01 1993/01/01 1996/12/01
1993/02/20 1993/02/20 1997/02/01
1993/04/11 1993/04/11

Rainfall
1993/05/31 1993/05/31 1997/04/01
1993/07/20 1993/07/20 1997/06/01

AWBM simulated runoff

1993/09/08 1993/09/08 1997/08/01
1993/10/28 1993/10/28
the Nzhelele River Catchment is dominated by dry rainfall years
Nethengwe (2007) and Odiyo et al. (2007) have indicated that

1993/12/17 1993/12/17 1997/10/01

1994/02/05 1994/02/05 1997/12/01
1994/03/27 1994/03/27 1998/02/01
1994/05/16 1994/05/16
1998/04/01
1994/07/05 1994/07/05

Date (yyyy/mm/dd)
Date (yyyy/mm/dd)
1994/08/24 1994/08/24 1998/06/01

Mike 11 NAM simulated runoff

1994/10/13 1994/10/13
Date (yyyy/mm/dd)

1998/08/01
1994/12/02 1994/12/02 1998/10/01
1995/01/21 1995/01/21
1995/03/12 1995/03/12 1998/12/01
1995/05/01 1995/05/01 1999/02/01
1995/06/20 1995/06/20 1999/04/01
1995/08/09 1995/08/09
1995/09/28 1995/09/28 1999/06/01
AWBM
R. Makungo et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 596607

1995/11/17 1995/11/17 1999/08/01

1996/01/06 1996/01/06 1999/10/01
1996/02/25 1996/02/25
Mike 11 NAM

1999/12/01
Fig. 10. Simulated runoff for the Nzhelele SQC using Mike 11 NAM and AWBM models.

1996/04/15 1996/04/15
1996/06/04 1996/06/04 2000/02/01
1996/07/24 1996/07/24 2000/04/01

Fig. 11. Correlation of the simulated runoff (AWBM) and the areal rainfall for the Nzhelele River SQC.
1996/09/12 1996/09/12
2000/06/01

Fig. 12. Correlation of the simulated runoff (Mike 11 NAM) and the areal rainfall for the Nzhelele River SQC.
0
5

0
5
10
15
20
25
30

10
15
20
25
30
Runoff (m3 /s) Runoff (m3/s)
605

(drought) which result in low ows. This is because Nzhelele River

is located on the leeward side of the Soutpansberg Mountains and
606 R. Makungo et al. / Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 596607
receives low rainfall resulting in low runoff. However, there are
sporadic ood events with return periods >1:15 years which occur
in the Nzhelele River (Nethengwe, 2007). These contribute to the
occasional ood peaks. These conrm the dominance of low ows
and occasionals sporadic oods. The 1995/96 hydrological year
ood event predicted in this study (Fig. 10) was also predicted by
Nethengwe (2007) on performing ood analysis for the Nzhelele
River downstream of the Nzhelele Dam, though of different magni-
tude. Nethengwe (2007) could not perform the ood analysis for
the hydrological year 1999/2000 because of lack of streamow
data for that year. However, a number of studies such as Smithers
et al. (2001) and Odiyo and Maluleke (2005) have indicated that a
major ood event occurred in February 2000 in the Limpopo Prov-
ince and the north eastern parts of SA. The coincidence of the major
ood peaks with those obtained in other studies shows that the
AWBM and Mike 11 NAM models were able to simulate the runoff
hydrograph for Nzhelele River at Siloam Village well.
5. Conclusions
Rainfallrunoff modelling approach has been developed to gen-
erate natural streamow for ungauged Nzhelele sub-quaternary
catchment. This involved computing inow hydrograph from a
water balance model for Mutshedzi Dam which was then used in
the calibration and verication of the RR model for the Tshiluvhadi
River SQC using the Mike 11 NAM and AWBM. The model param-
eters were then transferred using the nearest neighbour regionali-
zation technique and used for RR modelling of the ungauged
Nzhelele sub-quaternary catchment with Mike 11 NAM and
AWBM.
Due to lack of irrigation abstractions data, analysis was carried
out to establish the signicance of irrigation water use on the com-
puted inows. The inow time series computed for the Mutshedzi
Dam with and without irrigation water demand were compared.
This was necessary to justify the exclusion of daily irrigation water
demand time series from the water balance. Despite applying a
method that overestimated the irrigation water demand, the inclu-
sion of the computed irrigation water demand in the water balance
equation was found to have negligible effects on the computed in-
ows. The inow time series computed without the irrigation
water demand was therefore adopted for the calibration and veri-
cation of the rainfallrunoff models for Tshiluvhadi River SQC
using the Mike 11 NAM and AWBM.
Satisfactory calibration and verication was achieved with both
the models. The performance of Mike 11 NAM and the AWBM rain-
fallrunoff models were assessed using measures of goodness of t
between the simulated and observed runoff including RMSE, E, R,
OWBE and PBIAS. The Mike 11 NAM and AWBM rainfallrunoff
models performances were good and comparable though the
AWBM performance was relatively better than that of the Mike
11 NAM. This therefore justied the use of both models in the sim-
ulation of the streamow hydrograph for Nzhelele River SQC. The
satisfactory performance and ease of application of AWBM will
encourage its use in daily catchment RR modelling in ungauged
catchments in South Africa.
The streamow hydrograph for the Nzhelele River SQC simu-
lated from both the models is comparable and show behaviour
similar to that reported in earlier studies. It also correlates well
with the areal rainfall for the Nzhelele River SQC from upstream
to Siloam Village. The simulated streamow has been extended
and used in the derivation of a generic operating strategy for
run-of-river abstractions in a study by Makungo (2009).
The modied nearest neighbour regionalization approach
developed in this study has been shown to produce reasonably
good results at daily and sub-quaternary catchment scales, which
is of better resolution than the other methods such as Kapangazi-
wiri and Hughes (2008), the WR90 (Midgley et al., 1994) and its
update WR2005 that have been used in SA at monthly and quater-
nary catchment scales. Thus, the approach has the potential to be
used for daily water resources assessments at sub-quaternary
catchment scale and hence can be applied in near-real time
modelling.
Data on irrigation abstractions is the main limitation of the
developed approach in South Africa since there is lack of monitor-
ing in most parts of the country. The approach is applicable with
ease in rural areas, where there is minimal irrigation water use that
can be quantied accurately. Errors in estimating the irrigation
abstractions and errors in measurement of the hydrological vari-
ables in the water balance may result in inaccurate estimations
of the inows.
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to acknowledge the Department of Water Af-
fairs, particularly Mrs. Celiwe Ntuli, for supporting this study in or-
der to promote capacity building. Mr. Jason Hallowes from Danish
Hydraulic Institute South Africa is also highly acknowledged for
providing the educational training version of Mike 11 modelling
package.
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