CHAPT E R

Statistics and Public

and Nonprofit
Administration
1
The Advantages of a Statistical Approach

S
tatistics have many advantages for the study and practice of public and
nonprofit administration and other disciplines. We can summarize these ad-
vantages simply by noting that statistics offer insight into issues and prob-
lems in a field that would otherwise go unnoticed and unheeded. Although each
book on the subject appraises statistics somewhat differently, we can briefly relate
the major advantages of this approach.
First, statistics have great power to describe systematically a body of informa-
tion or data. No other approach matches the precision and quantification that
statistics bring to this task. Statistics can elucidate very precisely the main ten-
dencies, as well as the spread of the data about them, in a subset or sample of
a population or the population as a whole. Consider the local food pantry, for
example. The manager would like to know, What is the average number of hours
donated by volunteers to the organization in a typical week? On average, how
much do the hours donated vary week by week? Or consider the regional office
of the department of motor vehicles. The director needs to know, How many cli-
ents on average seek service in a typical day? By how much does this number vary
day to day? This information is essential for decision makers. Answering such
questions is the descriptive function of statistics.
Second, statistics are very useful for subjecting our intuitive ideas about how
a process or phenomenon operates to empirical test. Empirical means observable
or based on data. This confrontation of informed conjecture and speculation with
actual data and observation is called hypothesis testing. A hypothesis is an informed
guess or conjecture about an issue or problem of interestfor example, that the
increasing involvement of the nonprofit sector in the delivery of publicly financed
services will lead to greater government calls for accountability, or that developing
skills in statistics in a masters of public administration (MPA) program or a con-
centration in nonprofit management will enhance a students prospects in the job
market upon graduation. Statistics are helpful not only for determining the extent to
which the data available support or refute our hypotheses but also for generating the
kind of hypotheses that can be tested. Hypotheses should be clear, observable, and
falsifiable. This perspective expresses the hypothesis-testing function of statistics.

3
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 4 Chapter 1 Statistics and Public and Nonprofit Administration

Third, statistics are the foremost method for drawing an accurate inference
from a subset or sample of data to its parent, the full population. Rarely does
the public or nonprofit administrator have the luxury of working with the com-
plete population; instead, the data available are almost always a sample of obser-
vations. For example, the analyst may have a sample of all agency employees, or
clients, or audits, or recordswhatever the units of analysis might beand may
want to generalize to the entire population. Public and nonprofit administrators
need to know what the sample suggests about the population. For example, the
nonprofit administrator may want to estimate the likely number of financial do-
nors in the county based on a random sample of residents. Statistics provide an
excellent methodology for drawing this linkage. They allow the analyst to evalu-
ate the risk of error when making an inference from sample to population. They
also allow us to derive a confidence band or interval about an estimate that ex-
presses the inherent uncertainty in generalizing from a sample of data to the full
population. Because we do not have the data from the entire population, we can
still make an error in inferring from the sample. Yet statistics are valuable, for
they enable the analyst to estimate the probability or extent of this error. This
function is the essence of statistical inference.
To these classic uses of statistics we can add two others. First, in public and
nonprofit administration, managers face situations and challenges of daunting
complexity, such as homelessness, poverty, illiteracy, crime, drug and alcohol
dependency, and child and spousal abuse. We entrust to public and nonprofit
managers some of the most difficult problems in society. A major advantage of
statistics is that they can help the manager keep track of an almost innumer-
able collection of measured characteristics or attributes, called variables, at
the same time. Statistics allow the manager to manipulate the variables and evaluate
the strength of their influence on desired outcomes, such as agency performance
and citizen satisfaction in the public sector, or success in obtaining grant funding
and retaining volunteers in the nonprofit sector. The ability to examine a large
number of variables simultaneouslyand to sort out and make sense of the com-
plicated relationships among themis a great advantage of statistical methods
for dealing with highly complex situations.
Second, an appreciation of statistics can help the public and the nonprofit
manager become a much more discerning consumer of quantitative information.
Like it or not, managers in all sectors are bombarded with facts or assertions
based on statistical analysis. There is no escape from them. They appear regularly
in myriad sources, including reports, evaluations, memoranda, briefings, hear-
ings, press releases, newspaper accounts, electronic communications, books, aca-
demic journals, and many other outlets. Public and nonprofit managers need the
skills to evaluate the conflicting claims and representations often made and to
avoid being misled. Statistics offer major benefits in this area. Perhaps this reason
is the best one of all for the study and application of statistics in public and non-
profit administration.
As reflected in the MPA curriculum, statistics are certainly not all there is
to know about public or nonprofit organizations and management. One must

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 Statistics and Options for Managers 5

acquire or hone additional skills as well as develop a general understanding of

broader political, legal, economic, and social forces. But statistics, too, have a
rightful place in the program of study for the MPA, as well as in academic con-
centrations and degree programs in nonprofit organizations and management.

Statistics and Options for Managers

For these reasons, statistics and quantitative analysis have become a major ele-
ment of public and nonprofit management. Agencies that only a few years ago
made decisions based on seat-of-the-pants guesses and convenient assumptions
now routinely use computer printouts, contingency tables, regression analyses,
decision trees, and other statistical techniques to help understand complex situa-
tions and make decisions. Human resources managers receive personnel projections
to schedule recruitment efforts. Transportation planners rely on complex computer
simulations to design urban transportation systems. Budget officers and accoun-
tants scour economic projections and analyses. Program evaluators are charged with
making quantitative assessments of a programs effectiveness. Nonprofit managers
weigh the benefits against the costs of hiring a fund-raising firm. They compare
volunteer recruitment and turnover rates by age and education level. They distrib-
ute surveys to donors and potential donors to learn about them and inspire further
giving. Quantitative analyses have become so prevalent that no midlevel manager
in the public or nonprofit sector canor shouldhope to avoid them.
The increasing sophistication of quantitative techniques affords public and
nonprofit managers few options. At one extreme, a manager untutored in these
methods can act as if they did not exist and refuse to read reports containing
statistics. Unfortunately, this option is exercised all too often and at considerable
cost: The public or nonprofit manager loses valuable information presented in
quantitative form. This option is not acceptable.
At the other extreme, public and nonprofit managers may choose to accept,
uncritically, the findings of the data analyst rather than to reveal to others an ig-
norance of statistics. This option leads to an error as serious as the first. Although
quantitative analysts will almost certainly possess a stronger background in statis-
tics than does the manager (thats their job), the analysts lack the experience and
management skillsand the responsibilityto make the decisions. Those deci-
sions rest with public and nonprofit managers, based on the best statistical (and
other) advice available. This book is intended for students who consider public or
nonprofit management and analysis their present or future occupation.
The third option open to the managerand the one favored by the
authorsis to receive training in quantitative techniques. The training advocated
and offered in this book, however, is not a standard course in statistics, which often
remains a required (and dreaded) element of most MPA programs and increas-
ingly of nonprofit degree programs. Instead, we seek to develop appreciation for
and intuitive understanding of basic elements of statistics and quantitative analysis
for managers in the public and nonprofit sectors.

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 6 Chapter 1 Statistics and Public and Nonprofit Administration

Reading this book and working the problems at the end of the chapters will
not transform public and nonprofit managers from quantitative novices into
master statisticians. Such a transformation is neither desired nor necessary. By
and large, public and nonprofit managers do not set up research designs and
select and calculate appropriate statistical measures. Far more often, they receive
information of this kind and are expected to make reasoned and responsible deci-
sions based on it. For this task, a course in mathematical statistics is not required.
However, it is essential that managers become intelligent and critical consumers
of quantitative information. Toward that end, this book stresses the application,
interpretation, and evaluation of basic statistics.
This book is intended primarily for students who have no or only a very
limited knowledge of, or background in, mathematics, statistics, or other quan-
titative methods. Material is presented in an applied, nonrigorous, easily read-
able format centered on practical problems of public and nonprofit management.
The text is designed to engage readers in the discussion of these problems and
to encourage students to seek and understand numerical or statistical answers
to them. Often we present a step-by-step approach to the various techniques to
build confidence and mastery. Statistical theory is discussed only rarely, and the
computational formulas that pepper most statistics books are reserved for those
instances in which they enlighten rather than mystify.
We have elaborated on some of the advantages of our approach, and we
hope that they will become evident as you read and use the book and work the
examples and problems presented (highly recommended!). However, we would
be remiss were we to overlook the books shortcomings. The most obvious is that
this is not a comprehensive text in formal statistics. As noted before, the book
is not rigorous, and we have ignored and probably violated many elements of
standard statistical theory. Whereas this approach may arouse the disapproval of
some professional colleagues, we believe that it has its placeas an introduction
to statistics for managers in the public and nonprofit sectors. Too often, students
are alienated by more formal courses that emphasize precision over application,
and a first course in statistics becomes an eminently disliked and forgettable last
one. We have endeavored to develop a text that will engage and hold the interest
of public and nonprofit sector managers and at the same time present fundamen-
tal applied statisticsand, perhaps, whet the appetite for further training in this
area. For those who seek a more mathematical and theoretical approach to mana-
gerial statistics, several good books are available (see the Annotated Bibliography
at the end of the text).

The Role of Calculation

Whenever possible in this book, we have provided step-by-step instructions for
performing statistical procedures and evaluating the results. We strongly recom-
mend that you do these calculations and follow along. Statistics is not a spectator
sport: You learn by doing.

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 Academic Standards for Masters Degree Programs 7

But, you may be wondering, with laptop and desktop computer programs
featuring an entire repertoire of statistics seemingly available at the push of a
button or the click of a computer mouse, why worry about calculating statistics?
Why go to the trouble?
Our answer is that, precisely because statistics have become so immediately
accessible, it is all the more important to see how they are derived and computed.
We know of no better way to understand the various statistics, their advantages
and limitations, their assumptions and anomalies, than to experiment with a few
observations or data points, make the appropriate calculations, and observe what
values of the statistic are generated in return. Whatever the strengths or peculiari-
ties of the statistic, they will soon become apparent to you.
Given the profusion of user-friendly statistical package programs loaded
onto laptop and desktop computers, however, many students and managers in
the public and nonprofit sectors are becoming exposed to them through a dif-
ferent mechanism: Instead of learning about the statistics beforehand, they may
plunge into using them because they are readily accessible on their microcomput-
ers, but they may not readily understand them. We do not want to discourage
healthy curiosity or interest in statistics; nurturing it is difficult enough. But, in
effect, these students and managers practice a tempting statistical version of the
popular television quiz show Jeopardy; for those who arent aware, in this quiz
show contestants are given the answer but must state the question (instead of the
reversefun, huh?). For instance, you can easily obtain the regression (answer)
on the computer, but what is it, how should you interpret it, and why, are ques-
tions that require prior study for appropriate application and use. In this book we
address the important questions before explaining the answers.
With statistical package programs increasingly loaded onto computers,
students untrained in quantitative techniques can easily generate the statistical
answers on their computer monitor at the click of a computer mousebut
then can only guess at the question, use, or purpose behind those answers. In
our judgment, these students have not learned statistics for public and nonprofit
managers; they have acquired a potentially useful computer skill. There is a big
difference. In this book, we emphasize building knowledge of the former.

Academic Standards for Masters Degree

Programs in Public Affairs and Curricular
Guidelines for Nonprofit Academic Programs
If we have still not persuaded you of the advantagesor at least the needfor
learning and using applied statistics in public administration, nonprofit admin-
istration, and allied fields, we can offer you one more reason: the accreditation
standards in the field. The National Association of Schools of Public Affairs
and Administration (NASPAA) has formulated standards for accreditation of

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 8 Chapter 1 Statistics and Public and Nonprofit Administration

masters degree programs in public affairs, policy, and administration. Many

public administration programs also offer concentrations or certificates in non-
profit administration and include pertinent courses in the curriculum. In fact,
across all disciplines public administration schools and departments most often
provide courses and concentrations in nonprofit management education.
NASPAA adopted revised Standards for Accreditation for Masters Degree
Programs in 2009.* Under NASPAA Standard 5, Matching Operations with
the Mission: Student Learning, section 5.1,Universal Required Competencies,
states that an MPA program, As the basis for its curriculum will adopt a set
of required competencies related to its mission and public service values in five
domains. The domains encompass the ability to:
Lead and manage in public governance;
Participate in and contribute to the policy process;
Analyze, synthesize, think critically, solve problems, and make decisions;
Articulate and apply a public service perspective;
Communicate and interact productively with a diverse and changing
workforce and citizenry.
The chapters and material presented in this book are intended especially to
raise the ability of students in public administration to analyze, synthesize, think
critically, solve problems, and make decisions. Increasing and honing this ability,
in turn, will contribute to the other four required NAPAA competencies of leading
and managing in governance, participating and contributing in the policy process,
articulating and applying a public service perspective, and communicating and in-
teracting with the workforce and citizenry. This book will help to create and refine
the ability of students in public and nonprofit administration to synthesize infor-
mation, understand and perform crucial data analysis and interpret the results, and
support problem solving and decision making that underlie sound and effective
practice in the other domains specified by NASPAA in its accreditation standards.
Although it does not yet have authority or responsibility to accredit aca-
demic programs in nonprofit studies, the Nonprofit Academic Centers Council
(NACC) published revised Curricular Guidelines for Graduate Study in Non-
profit Leadership, the Nonprofit Sector and Philanthropy in 2007.** Section 16.0
treats Assessment, Evaluation and Decision-Making Methods and includes
three guidelines for nonprofit academic programs to meet in this area:
Methods and modes to evaluate performance and effectiveness at both
organizational and programmatic levels;
Decision-making models and methods and how to apply them in non-
profit organizational settings; and
The use and application of both quantitative and qualitative data for pur-
poses of strengthening nonprofit organizations, the nonprofit sector, and
society at large.

* http://www.naspaa.org/accreditation/standard2009/docs/NS2009FinalVote10.16.2009.pdf.
** http://www.naccouncil.org/pdf/GradCG07.pdf

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 Academic Standards for Masters Degree Programs 9

Just as is the case with the NASPAA Standards for Accreditation in public
affairs and administration with regard to the standard to analyze, synthesize,
think critically, solve problems, and make decisions, this book provides thor-
ough, accessible coverage for students in nonprofit administration of NACC
Curricular Guidelines in the area of Assessment, Evaluation and Decision-
Making Methods.
This book can form the basis for courses (and/or coverage) that satisfy the
NASPAA Accreditation Standards and the NACC Curricular Guidelines relat-
ing to quantitative techniques of analysis and requisite skills in program evalu-
ation, information synthesis, decision making, and problem solving. The book
elaborates statistical methods as a tool for assisting public and nonprofit manag-
ers in making decisions. By focusing on the assumptions underlying the various
techniques, the careful interpretation of results, and the limitations as well as the
strengths of the information conveyed, the text stresses the ethical and effective
utilization of statistics and quantitative analysis.
With respect to the competencies identified by NASPAA and NACC, Part I
of the book addresses Foundations of Quantitative Analysis. The chapters in
this section set out the rationale for a statistical approach in public and nonprofit
administration and provide essential background in measurement and research
design. The chapters are strong in the methodology of research and treat a wide
range of issues, including problem diagnosis, the logic of inquiry, causal infer-
ence, and threats to the validity of a quantitative study.
Part II, Descriptive Statistics, introduces basic statistical analysis. The chap-
ters here are also useful for acquainting students with the presentation and inter-
pretation of statistical charts, graphs, and tables to inform themselves as well as
other decision makers.
Part III, Probability, explores the many uses of this tool in public and non-
profit management. The chapters in this section assist students in defining and
diagnosing decision situations and selecting and evaluating a course of action.
The chapters in Part IV, Inferential Statistics, not only develop sophisti-
cated analytic skills but also help in the definition of problems, formulation of
alternatives, choice of decision, and evaluation of results. They help the manager
to understand the promiseand the limitationsof a sample of data for reach-
ing conclusions about the entire population.
Part V, Analysis of Nominal and Ordinal Data, introduces another set of
quantitative skills useful for the public and nonprofit administrator. This type of
analysis is employed frequently in written memoranda and technical reports and
in the evaluation of survey data. These data distinguish public administration
and nonprofit administration (and other social science fields) from the natural,
physical, and biological sciences, in which measurement is typically much more
precise.
Part VI presents Regression Analysis. Regression is one of the most flexible
and often utilized statistical techniques in the social sciences. The chapters in this
section greatly enhance the decision-making, analytic, and evaluative capabilities
of public and nonprofit managers. The first five chapters in this section discuss
the methods of regression analysis and the varied applications of regression-based

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 10 Chapter 1 Statistics and Public and Nonprofit Administration

techniques in public and nonprofit management. The last chapter in this section
explains how to read and interpret regression output generated by statistical soft-
ware packages, which is often complicated and difficult to understand. The chapter,
thus, provides a needed skill that is too often overlooked.
The final part of the book discusses Special Topics in Quantitative Man-
agement: performance measurement and decision theory. A full treatment of
linear programming can be found on the companion Website for the book. These
materials expose students to techniques for measuring organizational perfor-
mance, different models of logical analysis, bases for decisions, and evaluation
of alternatives. In sum, this book provides essential coverage pertaining to the
NASPAA Standards for Accreditation in public affairs in administration and the
NACC Curricular Guidelines for Nonprofit Administration.

A Road Map for This Book

This book is designed so that each of its parts is self-contained yet builds on the
other parts.
Part I lays the foundations for the use of statistics and quantitative analysis
in public and nonprofit administration. Chapter 1 explains why statistics have
become important to this enterprise and Chapter 2 elaborates measuring criti-
cal concepts in these fields. The chapter shows that measurement of key concepts
such as organizational effectiveness, job satisfaction, volunteer competence for
a task, and public trust in an agency can be difficult but is necessary. Chapter 2
also provides twin evaluative criteria for assessing measurement: reliability and
validity.
Chapter 3 explains how to model or depict a problem or issue of importance
(for example, service delivery by a public or nonprofit agency) and to follow up
with a systematic study based on data. The chapter examines different research
plans, called research designs, that direct how and when data are to be collected,
analyzed, and interpreted to answer questions about topics of interest, such as
how to improve service delivery, recruit volunteers more effectively, integrate the
work of paid and nonpaid (volunteer) human resources, or redesign public orga-
nizations. The topics considered in the chapter provide an essential foundation
for understanding the uses, advantages, and limitations of the statistics presented
in the other chapters of the book.
Part II covers basic descriptive statistics. This part of the book is devoted
to the analysis of one variable at a time, or univariate statistics. Chapter 4, Fre-
quency Distributions, begins this discussion with a treatment of how to cat-
egorize and display a large volume of data, or a (frequency) distribution, in a
graphical format, such as a table, chart, or graph, and how to work with percent-
ages. The chapter following, Measures of Central Tendency, is concerned with
finding and interpreting the average in a distribution of data: You may be famil-
iar with the main measures of central tendency, the mean, median, and mode.
The chapter shows how to calculate these statistics both for data that have been

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 A Road Map for This Book 11

arranged in a table or chart and for data that have not, which we affectionately
term raw data. Once you have calculated or read the average for a group or
distribution of data, the next question to ask is how closely the data cluster or
spread about this averagethat is, whether the observed values or observations
are relatively concentrated or dispersed about the measure of central tendency.
Chapter 6, Measures of Dispersion, introduces the two major statistics for mea-
suring dispersion in a sample of data: the variance and its close relative, the stan-
dard deviation. It also discusses the range and other statistics.
The next part of the book addresses probability. Probability can be confusing
for students to understand; do not become discouraged! To learn the basic rules
and applications of probability, please see Chapter 7, which presents an introduc-
tion to the topic. In that chapter, you will learn the basic law of probability as
well as what is meant by a priori probabilities, posterior probabilities, joint prob-
abilities, and conditional probabilities. With this background, the remaining chap-
ters on probability will be much easier to follow.
Chapter 8 presents the most common probability distribution, the normal
curve. The familiar bell-shaped curve has numerous uses and applications in pub-
lic and nonprofit administration. When data follow a normal distribution, it is
practical and easy (OK, maybe not easy, but surely within your reach) to deter-
mine the percentage of job applicants who fall above or below a criterion score
on a test of job-related skills. Or you can find the score that distinguishes the
top 5% of applicants for further consideration (for example, those applicants for
whom a follow-up interview is warranted).
Have you ever wanted to know the probability that an agency could hire
3 minorities for 10 positions when 50% of the job applicants were minorities?
For problems similar to this one, Chapter 9 introduces the binomial probability
distribution. The chapter also shows how the normal distribution can be applied
to simplify complex binomial problems, provided certain conditions are met. The
chapter following discusses other useful probability distributions for public and
nonprofit managers. The hypergeometric probability distribution is used when
the manager wants to make a generalization from a sample to a finite population.
The Poisson and the exponential probability distributions are used whenever
the manager needs to include time or distance in a probability statementfor
example, 1.2 computer failures per day or 15 potholes per 100 meters.
Part IV explores statistical inference and focuses on the issue of how the man-
ager can generalize (infer) results from a small sample of data to the much larger
population from which the sample was drawn. This technique is useful in its own
right and also to support advanced statistical procedures presented later in the
book, such as regression analysis. Because the public or nonprofit manager must
work almost always with a sample rather than the full population of databut
seeks reliable information about the entire populationknowledge of statistical
inference is essential. To learn how to estimate the value of the mean or average
for a population from a sample of data, consult Chapter 11. This chapter also
discusses procedures for constructing confidence bands or intervals around the
mean estimate.

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 12 Chapter 1 Statistics and Public and Nonprofit Administration

Chapter 12 applies the techniques of statistical inference to testing hypoth-

eses. Although it is not possible to avoid the risk of error in inferring from a
sample of data to the population (we cannot be sure of results if we do not have
population information), public or nonprofit managers may be willing to take
an acceptable risk in drawing an inference. The chapter shows how, by using
the techniques of classical hypothesis testing on a small sample of data, the manager
can make a decision regarding the full populationfor example, that the average
number of times the population of agency clients seeks assistance is four times
or more per year, or that the average is lessat the risk of error of, say, 5%. You
will thus learn a technique that in the long run will allow you to make the correct
decision 95% of the time but be in error the remaining 5% (remember, because
we do not know the answers in the population, we cannot be right all the time).
Chapter 13 shows how to estimate population proportions, rather than mean or
average values, from a samplefor example, the proportion (or percentage) of
motorists in a county who drive faster than 65 miles per hour on a stretch of
highway. For those situations in which the manager needs to compare the per-
formance or characteristics of two groups (for example, experimental and control
groups, groups before and after the implementation of a program or interven-
tion or treatment, and so forth), Chapter 14 explains how to test for differences
between groups using the statistical technique called analysis of variance.
Beginning with Part V, the remainder of the book deals with relationships
between two or more variables. The study of relationships between two variables is
called bivariate analysis. Bivariate statistical techniques can help to answer myriad
research and practical questions: Is agency budget related to performance? Do
police patrols reduce crime? Does greater inclusiveness in government hiring lead
to a more responsive bureaucracy? Does government contracting with nonprofit
organizations produce more efficient delivery of services? Do employees in non-
profit organizations display greater job motivation than those in other sectors of the
economy? Do smaller nonprofit organizations adapt more quickly to their environ-
ments than larger ones? Is there a relationship between delegating decision-making
authority to lower levels of the organization and innovativeness of employees?
Part V explains how to construct tables and analyze data at the nominal and
ordinal levels of measurementthat is, information measured in terms of catego-
ries (for example, gender) or rating scales (for example, attitude toward balancing
the federal budget, or clients evaluations of the training provided by a volunteer
center). Chapter 15 shows how to use percentages to analyze and interpret tables
called contingency tables or cross-tabulations that pair data from two nominal or
ordinal variables. Chapter 16 builds on this foundation to provide more sophis-
ticated techniques for analyzing tables, including statistical inference (chi-square)
and measures of association (gamma, lambda, and so forth). Chapter 17 dis-
cusses statistical control table analysis, a procedure for examining the relationship
between two variables while taking into account or controlling for or holding
constant a third variable. The analysis of three or more variables simultaneously
presented in this chapter introduces multivariate analysis, a topic covered more
extensively in later chapters of the text.

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 A Road Map for This Book 13

Part VI is concerned with relationships between variables assessed on equal

interval scales, or interval data, such as variables measured in years, dollars,
or miles. Chapter 18 begins the discussion with an Introduction to Regression
Analysis, a highly flexible and often used statistical technique that is helpful in a
variety of managerial situations in the public and nonprofit sectors. The chapter
shows how a line or linear relationship depicted in a graph or set of coordinate
axes can summarize the relationship between two interval variablesfor instance,
the relationship between the number of intake workers at a government facility
and the number of clients who receive service in a given day. Chapter 19 explains
the assumptions and limitations of regression analysis. Estimating and predicting
trends in the future based on past data is the subject of Chapter 20 on time series
analysis. Consult this chapter to forecast such trends as future population, the
number of people likely to volunteer to government agencies, service usage, sew-
age output, the number of organizations that will participate in the community
walk-a-thon to raise cancer awareness, and other over-time information impor-
tant to public and nonprofit managers.
Chapter 21, Multiple Regression, extends this technique to the multivari-
ate context: It shows how to use regression to analyze and understand relation-
ships among three or more variables. For example, how well can the average age
of housing and the percentage of renter-occupied buildings in a neighborhood
explain or predict the incidence of fires across a city? To what extent do the num-
ber of volunteers working in nonprofit agencies and the number of community
events sponsored by these organizations affect the amount of money collected in
their annual fund-raising campaigns?
Chapter 22, on interrupted time series analysis, explains how to estimate the
impact of a program or policy over time. The manager can use this technique to
evaluate whether a program, such as a senior citizens center or a municipal vol-
unteer office, has had a short-term, long-term, or short-term temporary impact
(or perhaps no impact) on the health and welfare of city residents.
Chapter 23 focuses on the interpretation of regression outputthat is, out-
put generated by statistical software packages. The earlier chapters in this sec-
tion (Chapters 1822) present a variety of regression examples in equation form
to illustrate how relationships between variables can be summarized using linear
equations. Statistical software packages generally do not present regression results
in equation form, however, which can make the leap from textbook to computer
applications and printout confusing. Although it is perfectly acceptable to write
up regression results in either equation or summary table form (the format used
by most statistical software packages), managers need to have a clear understand-
ing of the similarities and differences between these formats to interpret and use
the information provided effectively. Regression analysis is almost always per-
formed with computers. As a result, public and nonprofit managers need expo-
sure to how regression is carried out and presented in statistical software packages
before conducting such analyses on their own.
Part VII presents two special topics in quantitative management that are
sometimes useful to public and nonprofit managers. From years of teaching, as

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
 14 Chapter 1 Statistics and Public and Nonprofit Administration

well as feedback from instructors who have been kind enough to adopt this book
(thank you!) and their students (thank you, too!), we know that not all students
will be exposed to this part of the book. But some students areand we include
treatment of these topics as an aid and courtesy to them. Many of you will need
to use these techniques later in your career in public or nonprofit management.
Statistical methods are often used as tools for measuring and improv-
ing organizational performance in both government and nonprofit settings.
Chapter 24 on performance measurement techniques provides an overview of
some of the key issues that managers in both sectors need to know when designing
performance measurement systems and reporting performance results to external
audiences. If you are interested in how to make decisions given various amounts
of information, Chapter 25 on decision theory can be very helpful. The chapter
presents useful ways to evaluate alternatives and select among them.
Previous editions of the book included a chapter on linear programming.
This technique is useful for decision situations that involve maximizing or mini-
mizing some output under certain constraints. That chapter has been moved to
the companion Website for the book.
Following the chapters in the book, you will find other materials useful for
the study of applied statistics for public and nonprofit administration. For those
motivated to learn more about statistics (dont laughby the time you have read
a chapter or two, this student could be you!), we have included an Annotated
Bibliography with a brief description of each entry. The bibliography contains a
wide assortment of texts valuable for assistance and reference. For ease of use of
the book, you will also find, at the back, a Glossary of key terms that have been
boldfaced at their first appearance in the text except in the first chapter, where
they are highlighted in italics to draw attention to later use. And, of course, to
make the book self-contained, you will find all of the statistical tables (normal,
t-test, etc.) essential for applied statistics for public and nonprofit administra-
tion both for relevant courses and for present and future careers. Finally, you will
quickly make friends with the section containing answers to the odd-numbered
computational questions from the problem sets at the end of each chapter.
Whenever possible, we have attempted to include problems faced by public
and nonprofit administrators in the real world. Many of our midcareer as well as
more senior students suggested problems and examples for the book. Although
all the data and problems are hypothetical, they represent the types of situations
that often confront practicing public and nonprofit administrators. We hope that
you find them useful and interesting.
Now you have a road map for the book. Good luck on the journey!

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.