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8th International Conference of Modeling and Simulation - MOSIM10 - May 10-12, 2010 - Hammamet - Tunisia

Evaluation and optimization of innovative production systems of goods and services

ANALYSIS OF ORDER-UP-TO-LEVEL INVENTORY SYSTEMS WITH


COMPOUND POISSON DEMAND

M. Z. BABAI Z. JEMAI, Y. DALLERY

BEM-Bordeaux Management School Ecole Centrale Paris


680 cours de la Libration Grande Voie des Vignes
33405 Talence Cedex - France 92290 Chtenay Malabry - France
mohamed-zied.babai@bem.edu jemai@lgi.ecp.fr, dallery@lgi.ecp.fr

ABSTRACT: We analyse a single echelon single item inventory system where the demand and the lead time are
stochastic. Demand is modelled as a compound Poisson process and the stock is controlled according to a continuous
time order-up-to level policy. We propose a new method for determining the optimal order-up-to level for a cost
oriented inventory systems where unfilled demands are backordered. The conditions under which the system behaves
like a Make-To-Order setting are also discussed. By means of a numerical investigation, we show that the proposed
method provides very good results. It is also shown to outperform another approximate solution provided in the
literature. Our work allows insights to be gained on stock control related issues for both fast and slow moving Stock
Keeping Units.

KEYWORDS: stock control, compound Poisson, order-up-to-level, slow moving items.

generated based on a Bernoulli process, resulting in a


1 INTRODUCTION geometric distribution of the inter-demand intervals
(Boylan, 1997; Teunter et al, 2010). When time is
Inventory control policies have been largely discussed in treated as a continuous variable, the Poisson demand
the academic literature since the 1950s. A considerable generation process results in negative exponentially dis-
amount of research has been conducted to propose exact tributed inter-arrival intervals. There is sound theory in
and approximate methods to compute the optimal pa- support of exponential distribution for representing the
rameters of these policies (Porteus, 1985; Silver et al, time interval between successive demands in the context
1998; Strijbosch, 2006). The Normal distribution is often of slow moving items (Feeney and Sherbrook, 1966;
considered to model the demand since it is attractive Archibald and Silver, 1978). There is also empirical evi-
from a theoretical perspective and it is known to provide dence in support of this distribution (Janssen, 1998;
a good empirical fit to observed demand data. It should Eaves, 2002). With Poisson arrivals of demands and an
be noted that the normality assumption make more sense arbitrary distribution of demand sizes, the resulting dis-
in the context of fast moving items with demands occur- tribution of total demand is compound Poisson. It should
ring regularly, which are not highly variable. Obviously, be noted that from a modelling perspective, the com-
if the demand is not as such, for example as in the case pound Poisson process is attractive since it can also
of slow moving items or items with intermittent demand model the demand in the context of fast moving items by
which can be encountered in many contexts in practice, considering very low demand time intervals. Such a
the normality assumption is judged to be as far from ap- process will be considered to represent the demand in
propriate to be considered. this research work.

In practice, slow moving items and items characterized Furthermore, for stock control purposes, continuous time
by intermittent demand may be spare parts (engineering policies have been discussed in the academic literature
spares, service parts kept at the wholesaling/retailing and have been reported to offer tangible benefits to
level, etc.) or any Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) within the stockists dealing with both fast and slow moving items
range of products offered by all companies at any level (Strijbosch et al., 2000; Porteus, 1985; Porras and Dek-
of a given supply chain. Such kind of items is character- ker, 2008). The continuous Order-Up-To-Level policy,
ized by occasional demand arrivals interspersed by time often called as the base stock policy, is a very appealing
intervals during which no demand occurs. As such, de- policy from both a practical and theoretical perspective
mand is built, for modelling purposes, from constituent since it is simple, close to optimal and reflects to a great
elements (demand arrivals and demand sizes) that re- extent real world practices (Larsen and Thorstenson,
quire the consideration of more specific compound de- 2008). However, despite the very many contributions in
mand distributions. Under this context, two demand gen- this area and the abundance of the investigations aiming
eration processes have dominated the literature. If time is at the determination of the optimal parameters of these
treated as a discrete (integer) variable, demand may be policies, there are still many unresolved issues especially
MOSIM10 - May 10-12, 2010 - Hammamet - Tunisia

under some specific demand processes such as the com- Fi : c.d.f of the random variable X i
pound Poisson process. In fact, (i) most investigations
I (t ) : inventory level at time t
focus on service rather than cost-oriented systems; (ii)
there is little consideration of stochastic lead-times when S: order-up-to-level
cost oriented systems are analysed; (iii) there are no h: inventory holding cost per unit per unit of time
simple methods that can be implemented easily by b: inventory backordering cost per unit per unit of time
practitioners and enable the calculation of the optimal ( X ) + = max( X ,0)
order-up-to-levels, specifically in the context of slow
moving items. 3 SYSTEM MODELLING AND ANALYSIS

The inventory system considered in our work can be


In this paper, we develop a simple method than can be modelled as a queuing system. Each demand arrival ge-
used to calculate the optimal order-up-to-level in a single nerates an order to the supply system to replenish the
echelon, single item inventory system under a compound stock. A queue is formed by the outstanding orders in the
Poisson demand process and stochastic lead time. The system where the arrival process is given by the demand
solution of the optimal order-up-to-level is derived for a arrivals (or equivalently the ordering process) and the
cost oriented inventory systems where unfilled demands processing time corresponds to the replenishment lead-
are backordered. Some properties of the optimal order- time. The stock is replenished after L time units from the
up-to-level are provided. The quality of the solution is demand arrival. At any time t, the inventory level I(t) is
numerically assessed in the case of both fast and slow linked to the number of outstanding orders in the system
moving items (i.e. items with high and low demand in- by N(t) = S - I(t). It is easy to note that the number of
tervals, respectively). The benchmark method used in the outstanding orders in the system at any time t is the
context of fast moving items is described in the Appen-
number of customers in an M/G/ queue (Kleinrock,
dix.
1975). In fact, the demand arrival process (or equivalent-
ly the ordering process) is a Poisson process with rate
The remainder of the paper is organised as follows. Sec-
and the service time (the replenishment lead-time) fol-
tion 2 describes the inventory system and presents the
lows a General distribution with mean L. There is no
notations used in the paper. The expected total cost and
capacity constraint in the replenishment system which is
the expression of the optimal order-up-to-level are de-
equivalent to an infinity number of servers in the
rived in Section 3. Section 4 presents the algorithm that
queuing system. For more details about the modelling of
we propose to determine the optimal order-up-to-level.
inventory systems by using the queuing theory, the read-
In Section 5, we present the assumptions and the results
er is referred to (Buzacott and Shanthikumar, 1993; Li-
of the numerical investigation. We end in Section 6 with
beropoulos and Dallery, 2003). Hence, analysing the
conclusions and directions for further research.
inventory level I(t) is equivalent to analysing the number
of customers N(t) in an M/G/ queue.
2 SYSTEM DESCRIPTION AND NOTATION
A well-known and useful result from queuing theory
We consider a single echelon single item inventory sys- (Zipkin, 2000) is that the stationary probabilities for the
tem where the demand and the lead time are stochastic.
M/G/ queue are given by (1).
Demand is modelled as a compound Poisson process, i.e.
the inter-demand arrivals are exponentially distributed
and the demand size follows an arbitrary distribution. ( L ) i e L for all i 0 (1)
pi =
The stock is controlled according to a continuous time i!
order-up-to-level policy. Each replenishment order is
associated with a stochastic lead-time characterised by Thus, in the stationary regime, with probability pi there
an arbitrary probability distribution and unfilled de- are i orders in the system (i.e. N(t) = Xi) and there are
mands are backordered. A penalty cost is incurred if the I(t)= S - Xi items in stock. For example, for i = 0 there is
demand is backordered and a holding cost is incurred if no order in the system, i.e. the system is in state S with a
an item is in stock, both per unit of time. state probability p0 = e L , for i = 1 there is only one
order in the system, i.e. the system is in state S-X with a
For the remainder of the paper, we denote by: state probability p1 = Le L , etc.
L: mean lead-time
: mean demand arrival rate 3.1 Derivation of the Optimal Order-Up-To-Level
X: demand size random variable
X : mean of demand size The expected holding and backordering inventory in the
system are given by:
X : standard deviation of demand size
X i : the sum of i independent and identically distributed

random variables X p0 S + pi ( S X i ) + and p (X i i S ) respectively.


i =1 i =1
MOSIM10 - May 10-12, 2010 - Hammamet - Tunisia

Thus, the expected total inventory cost is given by equa- that by knowing the type of the distribution Fi and the
tion (2). first two moments, the analysis is straightforward.
We have considered in this work the use of both the

[
E [C ( S )] = hSp0 + h( S X i ) + + b( X i S ) + pi ] (2)
Normal and the Gamma distribution. Both are available
in commercial spreadsheet packages such as Excel.
i =1
However, although the Normal distribution is very con-
venient from an analytic standpoint, in practical situa-
Equation (2) can also be written as follows:
tions, the Gamma distribution is preferable to represent
S
demand sizes of slow moving items since it is non-

(3)
E[C ( S )] = hSp0 + h ( S x)Fi ( x)dx + b ( x S )Fi ( x)dx pi negative with high coefficients of variation. Moreover,
i =1 0 S there has been empirical evidence in its support (Kwan,
1994). Consequently, for the purpose of our numerical
Taking the derivative of the expected total cost with re- investigations in Section 5, we will use the Gamma dis-
spect to S gives: tribution.

dE [C ( S ) ] It is important to note that in practice the issue with equ-


= hp 0 + [hFi ( S ) b (1 Fi ( S )) ] pi ation (4) when it is used to determine numerically the
dS i =1 optimal order-up-to-level is that S* is a solution of an

equation that is composed of an infinite summation.
= hp 0 + [( h + b ) Fi ( S ) b ] pi
Thus, if this equation is solved by stopping the summa-
i =1
tion into a certain order, the solution that is obtained is
The objective is to find the optimal order-up-to-level that
an approximation of S*. Hence, in order to give a good
minimises the expected total cost. Note that since Fi(S) is
numerical solution of S*, a simple method should be de-
increasing in S for all i 1, this derivative is clearly in-
veloped to tackle this issue, which is the objective of the
creasing in S. Therefore, E[C(S)] is convex in S. Hence,
analysis in Section 4.
the optimal S can simply be determined by setting the
derivative to zero.
3.2 Make-To-Stock vs. Make-To-Order System
Proposition 1.
The inventory system that we are analyzing in this paper
The optimal order-up-to-level S is the solution of (4). can behave like a Make-To-Stock (MTS) or a Make-To-

( L ) i e L b (4) Order (MTO) system depending on the value of the op-

i! F ( S ) =
i e L
h+b timal order-up-to-level. In fact, if the optimal order-up-
i =1
to-level S* is equal to zero, the system behaves like a
MTO system, otherwise, if S* is strictly positive, the sys-
Proof.
tem behaves like a MTS system.
Let S* denotes the optimal order-up-to-level. The value
of S* is the solution of the equation: dE [C ( S )] = 0 Proposition 2.
dS
The system behaves like a MTO system if and only if
dE [C ( S )]

= 0 hp 0 + [( h + b) Fi ( S ) b]p i = 0 inequality (5) is satisfied


dS i =1 1 b (5)
< log
b h L h+b
Fi ( S ) pi = pi p0
i =1 ( h + b) i =1 ( h + b) Proof.
b
Fi ( S ) pi = p0 The system behaves like an MTO system, if and only if
i =1 h+b
i L
S* is equal to 0. It is easy to show that
(L) e F ( S ) = b e L


i! i h+b
i =1 S* = 0 if and only if Fi ( S * ) pi < 0 .
i =1
Thus, the optimal value S* is the solution of (4) which
ends the proof of Proposition 1. b
Fi ( S * ) pi < 0 h + b e < 0
L

i =1
The distribution that we consider to represent the random
variable of the demand size X will affect the complexity
of the analysis since in order to determine the optimal < 1 log b
order-up-to-level S, one needs the distribution of the L h+b
random variable Xi. Thus, the analysis is less complex if
the demand size distribution is regenerative, i.e. if the This ends the proof of Proposition 2.
sum of i demand size distributions is of the same type (as
e.g. for Normal or Gamma demand size distributions) so
MOSIM10 - May 10-12, 2010 - Hammamet - Tunisia

4 APPROXIMATIONS OF THE ORDER-UP-TO- In fact, for different values of the demand interval and
LEVEL the demand size, we show numerically that S* can be
easily obtained by considering the values of SU (n) and SL
In this section, we propose a method and a simple algo- (n) with relatively low value of n.
rithm that can be used to derive good approximations of
the optimal order-up-to-level S*. Let us first introduce For high values of compared to the lead time L (i.e.
equations (6) and (7). 1/ is relatively low compared to L), it is clear that the
item can be considered as a fast moving item. In order to
n
( L ) i e L b (6) show that our method provides "good" approximations
F (S )
i
i!
=
h +b
e L of S*, we also conduct a numerical comparison of the
i =1
approximations given by our proposed algorithm and the
approximation obtained by using the classical expression
n
( L ) i e L b n
(L)i e L (7)
F ( S )
i
= e L 1 given in the literature for fast moving items. For more
i =1 i! h+b i =0 i! details on this classical expression, the reader is referred
to the Appendix.
Proposition 3.
5 NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION
The optimal S* is such that: SU (n) S* SL (n) where SU
(n) is the solution of (6) and SL (n) is the solution of (7). We start the numerical investigation by determining for
Moreover SU (n) and SL (n) converge to S* when n tends
different values of the demand arrival rate the smallest
towards infinity.
order n for which the bounds converge to the optimal
order-up-to-level within a given error threshold. The
The proof of Proposition 3 is not included in the paper
smallest value n is computed by using (8) and will be
but it may be provided by the first author upon request.
denoted by n*. To do so, the numerical values L = 1, h =1
and b = 10 are considered. Results are reported in Table
Proposition 3 shows that SU (n) and SL (n) provide
1 for three stopping criteria = 10-4, 10-3 and 10-2.
bounds on S* for different values of n and that these
bounds get tighter as n increases. As a result, S* can be 0.1 0.2 0.3 ... 0.8 0,9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
approximated as closely as desired by using those = 10-4 3 3 4 6 6 6 9 11 13 15 17 19 20 23 24
bounds. n* = 10-3 2 3 3 5 5 5 8 10 11 13 15 16 18 20 21
= 10-2 1 2 2 3 4 4 7 8 9 11 12 14 15 17 18

The following algorithm can be used to compute S*. Table 1 : Convergence order of the bounds for different
values of
Step 0: Initialise n = 1
Step 1:
1a: solve (6) to calculate SU (n) As shown in Table 1, for a slow moving item (low val-
1b: solve (7) to calculate SL (n) ues of ), the smallest order of convergence of the algo-
(this can be done using a simple dichotomy algo- rithm n* for a stopping criterion less than 10-4 is relative-
rithm) ly low. Obviously, the order is even smaller if the stop-
Step 3: Calculate (n) = SU (n) - SL (n) ping criterion is less than 10-2. For example, for items
If (n) < given, stop with 1 (i.e. demand intervals high or equal to 1
Otherwise, do n = n+1 and go to step 1 which corresponds to slow moving items), our algorithm
converges after at most 6 iterations if the stopping crite-
Please note that for n = 1, SU (n) reduces to the approxi- ria is less than 10-4 and at most 4 iterations if the stop-
mation of the optimal order-up-to-level proposed by ping criteria is less than 10-2. It is also clear from Table
Syntetos et al (2009) for an inventory system with in- 1, that our algorithm requires more iterations to converge
termittent demand and short lead-times. in the case of fast moving items (i.e. 1).

When the algorithm presented above is used in practice, To analyse the impact of the degree of the demand in-
a simple method that can be used in order to determine termittence on the quality of the calculated solution of
the value of n for which the bounds SU (n) and SL (n) the optimal order-up-to-level, we plot the curves of the
converge to S* is to determine, for the given stopping upper and lower bounds SU (n) and SL (n) by varying the
criterion of the algorithm , the smallest value n for demand interval (i.e. 1/ and n. Results in this section
which (8) is satisfied. are presented by considering the numerical values for the
demand sizes X = 10 and X = 3. The numerical values
i L of the lead-time and the unit costs are L = 1, h = 1, b=10.
1 ( L ) e
n
< (8) Results are presented by considering the cases of slow
i =0 i!
and fast moving items with different values of n. Figure
1 corresponds to the case of slow moving items (i.e. val-
In the next section, we investigate numerically the quali- ues of such that 1/ 1) and low values of n. Figure 2
ty of the different approximations given by our method.
MOSIM10 - May 10-12, 2010 - Hammamet - Tunisia

corresponds to the case of fast moving items (i.e. values trol for both fast and slow moving items, we compare the
of such that 1/ 1) and high values of n. To make performance of this approximation with the optimal so-
Fig. 1 easy to read, since the values of the upper and lution given by our algorithm. In the remainder of the
lower bounds are very close from n = 2, we only present paper, this approximation will be called the "classical
the curves for n = 1, 2 and 5. approximation". The classical approximation is deter-
mined by using a Gamma distributed demand with mean
Figure 1 and figure 2 clearly show that the bounds are and variance that we compute as described the in Ap-
very close and they converge quickly to the optimal pendix based on the same numerical values presented
order-up-to-level once the algorithm reaches the smallest above for the demand size and the demand interval. Fig-
value n*. For example, for the numerical example ure 3 shows the curve of the optimal solution and the
presented above, if 1/ = 1 the upper and lower bounds classical approximation for high values of 1/ (i.e. slow
converge to the optimal solution (S* = 25.2) for n* = 6. If moving item). Figure 4 shows the curve of the optimal
1/ = 1, the upper and lower bounds converge to the solution and the classical approximation for low values
optimal solution (S* = 145.6) for n* = 24 although as of 1/ (i.e. fast moving item).
shown in Figure 2, it is difficult to distinguish
graphically between the upper and lower bounds from 30

the value n = 17.


25
Optimal Solution
100 20 Classical Approximation
SU(1)
90
SL(1) 15

S
80
SU(2)
70 SL(2) 10
Bounds

60 SU(5)
50 SL(5) 5
40
30 0
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
5,5
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
9
9,5
10
10,5
11
20 1/
10
Figure 3 : Optimal solution and classical approximation
0
for high values of 1/
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
5,5
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
9
9,5
10
10,5
11

1/

Figure 1 : Upper & lower bounds of S corresponding to 160


high values of 1/ & low values of n. 140

120 Classical approximation


160 Optimal solution
SU(15)
100
140 SL(15)
80
S

SU(17)
120
SL(17) 60
100 SU(19)
Bounds

40
SL(19)
80
20
60
0
40 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 1,1
1/
20

0
Figure 4 : Optimal solution and classical approximation
0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 1,1
1/
for low values of 1/

Figure 2 : Upper & lower bounds of S corresponding to Figure 3 shows that for high values of 1/ (i.e. slow
low values of 1/ & high values of n. moving item) the quality of the classical approximation
is poor. The relative error between the order-up-to-level
It should also be noted that the upper bound is generally when computed by using the classical approximation and
closer to the optimal order-up-to-level than the lower the optimal solution computed by using our algorithm
bound even for low values of n. Consequently, if a sim- can go up to 60%. As expected, this difference decreases
ple approximation is needed in practice without using when 1/ decreases. In contrast, Fig. 4 shows that for
our algorithm, the upper bound can be considered as a low values of 1/ (i.e. fast moving item), the classical
good solution of the optimal order-up-to-level. approximation gives good performance since it is almost
equal to the optimal solution for all values of 1/. This
Figure 1 shows that the inventory system behaves like a shows that the classical approximation is a good solution
Make-To-Order system for the demand interval only for fast moving items, but for slow moving ones, it
1/10.5. It is easy to check that this is the right value is far to be a good approximation.
obtained when the numerical values are replaced in (5).

To analyse the performance quality of the approximation


provided in the Appendix that is often used in stock con-
MOSIM10 - May 10-12, 2010 - Hammamet - Tunisia

6 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH has been repeatedly questioned in the academic literature
(Willemain et al, 1994, Syntetos et al, 2010) so another
Based on a queuing theory approach, we developed in interesting research would be to assess the validity of the
this paper a simple method for determining the optimal considered distributions.
order-up-to-level in a single echelon inventory system
under a compound process demand and stochastic lead- It is also worthwhile to highlight in this last section of
time. We provided expressions of upper and lower the paper the limits regarding our assumption on the sta-
bounds of the optimal order-up-to-level for a cost tionarity of the demand sizes and demand intervals, es-
oriented system when unfilled demands are backordered. pecially in this context of slow moving items. Thus,
These expressions can be considered as approximations another avenue of further research is to find a way to
of the optimal order-up-to-level and any desired level of take into account in the analysis the non-stationarity of
accuracy can be achieved. the demand pattern which will be of a considerable bene-
fit to both the academic researchers and the practitioners.
By conducting a numerical investigation, we showed that
the proposed bounds represent good approximations of APPENDIX
the optimal order-up-to-level for reasonable values of n.
The algorithm used to compute the optimal solution has An approximation of the optimal order-up-to-level S for
been shown to have relatively quick convergence espe- fast moving SKUs (Silver et al, 1998) is given by:
cially for slow moving items. Furthermore, if a simple
approximation is needed in practice without the need to b (9)
FDL ( S ) =
use the algorithm, we recommended the use of the upper h+b
bound since it is generally closer to the optimal order-
up-to-level than the lower bound. It is important to note where FDL(.) denotes the cumulative probability distribu-
that the approximations of the order-up-to-level that we tion of the demand during the lead-time. The lead-time
proposed can be easily implemented and determined on demand is with mean DL and standard deviation DL,
spreadsheets like Excel which is important issue for
practitioners. where DL = LX and DL = L( X2 + X2 ) .

Although another approximation proposed in the litera- For slow moving SKUs (9) has also been used in the
ture (classical approximation) is often used in stock con- literature to determine the optimal order-up-to-level
trol for both fast and slow moving items, we showed in (Syntetos et al, 2006). This is obviously reasonable only
this paper that this approximation provides very poor if appropriate probability distributions for the lead-time
performance in a context of slow moving items. The demand and appropriate estimates of the mean and
relative error between the classical approximation and variance of the distribution are considered.
the optimal the order-up-to-level can go up to 60%
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