GEOPHYSICALRESEARCHLETTERS,VOL. 18, NO.

3, PAGES416-419,MARCH 1991

TemperatureTrendsin LowerMesosphere
A. C. Aikin , M. L. Chanin
2,J. Nash
a, & D. J. Kendig
4

Abstract. The largestatmospherictempera.ture long-termtrends,10 years(1980-1990)of temperature

cha,ngesdue to the increaseof greenhousegasesare ex-
pected in the 40 to 60 km altitude region, where en-
ha,acedinfrared coolingdecreasesthe temperature. Ten-
yea.r(1980-!990) temperaturetrendsat 55 km and 0.4
rob, derivedusing data from the ground-based!idar at
Haute Provence, 44N 6E, and the SSU channel 47X
on several satellites, are presented. These data show
tcmpera.ture decreasesthat a,re as large a,nd in some
ca,sesexceed predictions based on current models. At
44N, the ground-basedlidar and satellite techniques
give a, negative trend of-0.10 4-0.04% per year and
-0.14_-10.02%
per year,respectively.
Agreementbetween
these two data, ses based on different measurement tech-
niquesgivesconfidencein the detectedtrends a.tthis !at-
ittde. Further analysis of the SSU 47X satellite data
letween 45S and 45N indicates a maximum decline of
0.16% per year near 30N. A minimum trend decrease
, 0.07% per year is detected between 20 and 30S.
Ba,scd on N OAA satellite radiance observations,these
1,rag---termtemperature changesare la,rgertha,nchanges
a,f,a.nyof the ,,ther stratospheric levels below 55 km mon-
itored during this period.
Introduction
Beta,usetile a,mountsof CH4, CO2, a.nd CFCs are in-
crea,sing,
the a,txnosphereis undergoingm,,dificafi,,
its tempera.turestructure. While here will
ing nea.r the strfa,ce,enhancing gasessuch a.sC)2 will
increasethe a.mount of longwavera.dia.ionemitted from
t,he midge atmosphere, resulting in cooling. Secular
changesin ozone concentrationsalso modify le tem-
pera.ture distribution. Severalcomputationshave pre-
dicted that ma.mum cooling will occur in the lower
mesosphere, with 55 kn being near the height where
the largestcha.ngeis anticipated(Brasscurel al., 1988
1990). RecentlyiHnd et al., (1990)performed three-
dimensionalcMculafion where larger changeswere pre-
dicted for the mesospherehnn for the stratosphere.All
of these computations predict an decreaseof 10 K or
more for 55 km when COz is doubled and CFCs increase.
In a,programo monitor the mesosphere
for evidenceof
daa from two sourceshave been analyzed.Tiffs period
coversnearlya full sunspotcycle.
Tile Temperature Data Sets
Two measuresof temperature in tile 55 km altitude
regionare employed.The first is data from the SSU
instrumentchannel47X (Nash and tdge, 1989). Tiffs
instrument has been flown on a series of TIROS meteo-
r!ogicalsatellites.The weighting
functionfor thischan-
nel givesan equivalenttemperatureat a pressure levd
of a,bout 0.4 rob. As a comparison,the ground-based
Rayleighlidar systemat Haute Provenceis employed
(ChaninandHauchecorne,
184). Tile lidar measures
M)solutetemperatureand doesnot require externalcal-
ibra,tions.While the lidar data are taken at the single
locationof44N 6E, the SSU 47X data computedspecif-
ica,llyfor the lidar comparisonare a zonal averagecen-
tered a 44N with 10 latitude resolution. In addition
two years{f data,from the Solar MesosphericExplorer
(SME) at 30Nare availablefor coxnparison.
Figre 1 displaystile observedtexnpera,
tures. T!ereis
a,veryea,silyrecognized seasonalcyclewith a maximum
a.ppea,ring
eachsummerduringthe 10-yearperiod.The
difference between summer maxAmurn and winter min-
imum averages
12 K. Temperaturedata for SME were
provided
by It. Cla,ncy
(privatecommunication,
1990).
These data are derived from the ultraviolet spectrome-
ter(UVS)experiment
onSME(Clancya.ndIt usch,
1989)
a,ndcoverthe time period from January 1985 to August
1986.Thereis generalagreement
betweenthethreetem-
perature
datasetsonthe annualcycle,eventhoughthe
zonal mean used for the satellite data tends to decrease
the aanpli,ude
comparedto what is seenlocallybyli-
dar. Lida,rand SME data agreewell on the absolute
tcxnpera.tures
during1985a,nd1986whiletheSSU47X
tempera.
turesare consistantly10Kless.

La,bora.tory
for Atmospheres,NASA GoddardSpace
Flight Center, Greenbelt,Maryland 20771,USA
2Serviced'Aeronomie, errieresle Buisson,France
SU.K. MeteorologicalOce, Braeknell,U.K.
240
4ST Systexns
Corpora.tion (STX), Lanhaxn
23O
Ma.ryland 20706, USA
Fig. 1. Lidaremperaure
daa(solidline)andSSU
47X
daaat 44N(d,tted-dashed
lineareplotted
asmonthly:
Copyright 1991 by the American Geophysical Union. memos.
SMEtemperature
daazonallyaveraged
a
(dotted
line)isittcluded
forcomparison
komJanuary
Paper number 91GL00233 toAugust
1986.LidarandSMEdataareplotted
for55
0094-8534 / 91 / 9!GL- 002 33503. O0 while he SSU 47X data is plotted at 0.4 rob.

416
 Aikinet al.:Temperature
Trends
in theLower
Mesosphere 417

Uncertaintiesin Sa.tellite Temperature Deterurination However, tills procedure does no compensatea.de-

and Other Systematic lgrrors quaI,ely a.t all latitudes for differences between the
NOAA--Oand NOAA-7/9/11 orbits introdttcedby he
The 10 K tempera,lure differencebetween the !idar and
sola,rsemidiurnaltemperature';ides. The influenceof t,he
thesatellitedata,is toolargeto beexplainedpurelybyra- scmidimtaltides has been quantifiedfrmn comparison
di(mtetric
error. SSU 47X radiancesare synthesized from
the differencesbetween radia,nce observations a,t 40 to
of sinmlta.neous
observations by NOAA-6 and lgOAA--7
and then by NOAA-{i and NOAA-9 obtained over more
na,
dir and those at, 5 to nadir by SSU channel 27. The
tha,n12 monthsfor eachpair. Thus at 4431the inter-
differencesa,remtdtiplied by a factor of 22 before com-
binationwit,h radiancesobservationsby SSU chaintel26 spa,
cecra,ftdifferences(observations
frmn ascendingtud
descending orbitsaveraged together)wereestimatedto
(Nash,
1988).TheSSUprefligh
calibration
testingdoes
not allow calibra,tion of the differences between individ- be lesstha.x,0.3 K in long-termaverages.In equatorial
regimeswhere solar sexxfidiurnaltenperature tides are
ualSSUfieldsof viewto betterthan0.2 radiance
rotits, of larger a,mplitndethe differencein somecircuxnstances
sotha,tconsta,
nt radiometricerrorsaslargeas4 radiance
unitsin SSU47X measurexnents can readily occur. Four
couldIe a,slargeas 2 K, wittxthe a,vera.ge of {bserva-
radiancerefits are equivalentto about 3 K in eqtiva,lent, of observa,tions a,t around 0800 and 100 hours. average
lions at a,round 0400 and 1400 warmer titan the
blackbodytemperature for SSU 47X observa, tions. The
mostprobableexplanationfor the systematicerror in the There was sufficientoverlapof observationsbetween
NOAA-6 a,nd NOAA-7 and NOAA--6 and BIOAA-O to
sa.
tellitebserva,
tion is that,sxnal!errorsin the cm'nlmted
$SU weightingfunctions have introduced a sxnallerror enableadjustmentsto be derivedto compensate, in the
long f.erm, for systematicbiases between observat;ions
intothe algorithmused to computeSSU 47X temper-
atures. A sinfilar error was identified and rectified for frmn the differentspacecraft.This procedurecompen-
SSLI15X (Na,sh,1988). Empiricala,djustments
to the satedfor long-termbiasdue to senfidiurnattemperature
algorithxnin order to rectify the systematicerror will
tides a,nddifferencesin radiometerperfonna.nce.This
meth{M of compensationwas found to be accurate to
increa,se
the a,bsolutemagnitudeof the radiancesby at
nost12%. The magxfitude of the long--termchangesin }etterthan :[.0.3radianceunitsin long-termaverages of
SSU47X radiancesreportedin this study would then be z,maJlyaveragedradia.nces at a given latitude. Adjust-
meats for the differences between NOAA-11 and NOAA-
increasedby at most about 0.5 radiance units. The ef-
fectof the corrections would be sinfilar at all the latitudes observations
were obtainedfrom comparisons
during
considered here. the sh,rt {verlapof operationsin November 1988.
The time seriesusedin this study have not l>eenad-
Uncertainty in Inersatellite Calibrations justed to take a,ccmmt f NOAA--O orbit drift between
late 1986, when NOAA-{i observationsceased,and late
Whilethe lida,r data set was acquiredat nigh*, the 1988, whenN()AA-11 observationscommenced.During
$$U 47X observations were obtained at va.rious local this time the local observation times of NOAA-9 drifted
timesduringthe day and night. At 4431,nadir view l)y ab{mt ! hour and 20 minutes. This drift should have
HOAA-Observa.tions (availablefor muchtf the time introducednegligibleerrorsat 44N but in the equatorial
betweenla.te !979 and late 1986)wereproducedat ap- regionsthe orbital drift has probably introduced an ad-
!mxixnately0800 and 1900 hours local time. NOAA- ditional decreasein observedradiance temperature with
8 and NOAA-10 observed at similar times to NOAA-6 time equivalent to about 0.5 q- 0.3 K This estima,te is
lm.sed ut a considera. tion of the varia. tion in observed ra,-
(butthepa.yload
of NOAA-10didnotincludea.nSSU).
NOAA-7andNOAA-9 nominallyobserved at approxi- diancc witIt local time of observationsby SSU chinreel
ma.tely
0400and 1400local time, but the local observa- 27 a,t,a slightlylower level in Brownscombeet al., 1985.
tiontimesof NOAA-9weresubjectto significant
long- The p!mseof the dominant mode of the senfidiurna! tem-
term drift. NOAA-11 was launched into an orbit with peraturetide doesnt changesignificantlywitIxheight
observationtimes about 1 hour earlier than the nominal theselevels and the amplitude increa.sesrela.tively
orbitsof NOAA-7 and NOAA-9. witIt heigl,t (Walterscheidand Venkateswa,ra.n,
197[}).
Comparison between SSU 47X observationsfrom the The wcightingfunction of SSU channel 27 ha,svar-
ascending orbitsof all thesespacecraft ied frorn spa.cecra.ftto spacecraft,becauseof water va.p,r
anddescending
show
systematic
differences
in observations
at 44N of lea.ksin the pressure-modula.ted
cell (PMC) controlling
between
1.5and2 K, withtheafternoon
observations
al- he weightingfunction.The daa has beencompensated
wayswa.nner, Tills difference is consiste'tt with theoreti- for thesechangesin a manner describedby N ash and
calmodelsofthesola.r diurnaltemperature tidebetween Edge(1989). It is estimatedthat the compensations for
40mdO0km and with basicSSU channel27 observa- weightingtimetlon changeare accurate to about 4-30%
tions
centered slightly lower inthestratosphere (Brown- or to about -_k0.6K betweenthe beginningand end of
scombeet al., 1985).Lidarmea.surexnents
a 55 kxnof the time seriesin this study.
thediurnalandsemidiurnal tideva,rybetween0.5to 3 The temperature tre,td kr SSU 47X was determined
Kdepending
onthemonth (Clille
et al.,1990).Varia- a.t consta,ntpressure, whereas the lidar was at constant
tions
inobservations
fromthedifferentspacecraft
orbits heig!tt. Long-termchangesin temperature at 50 km a.nd
caused
bysolardiurnaltemperature
tideshavebeencan- belowwill changethe geopotentialheight,whichis equiv-
celled
outto a firstapproximation
byalwa,ys
averaging n!cnf,to changingthe temperature. Previous studies
together
approximatelyequalamounts
ofdatafromas- (Na.sha.ndEdge, 1.989)indicatedthat the glbal texn-
cending
a.nddescendingorbits. pera.ttre in the !6 to 50 km height region fell by 0.7
418 Aikin et al.: Temperature
Trendsin the LowerMesosphere

270
K between 1979 and 1989. This leads to a long-term
geopot,
cntiM height decreaseof constantpressureheight
of about 100 m in the vicinity of 50 kin. If this holds
over France, the long-term trend in the SSU 47X mea-
260
surements shouldbe lessnegativethan the lidar measure-
meat trend by about 0.2 K in 10 years, which is within 250
the uncertainty of the results to the fit.
240
Method of Analysis
230
To qta,ntitntivelyanalyze the temperature for annual
a,nd seufia.mmaloscilla,tions to establish a possiblelin-
270
ear trend, the data were fit with a timelion containing
both sinusoidal and lineax terms. A coefficient to fit the
1!-,yea.rsolar cycleoscillationwas not included. Based
on lidar information, texnperaturechangesdue to solar
flux variationsare small at 515km (Chanin,1[}89). The
fitting procedtreemployedthe CURVFIT algorithmde- E250
scribedby Berington (1909). This algoritlunperforms
a, least-squarestlt to an analytical timelion, which can 240
include terms that are nonlinear in the fit parameters.
The functional form of the fit for the temperature, T, is lb
230 ...... ....... ...... ..... ....
1980 1982 1984 . 1986 1988 1990

Fig. 2. Temperature data for 44Nare overplotted

witIt
the fit of equation(1) and the lineartrendbasedonthefit.
4' a4cos4,r(t- a.) (a) SSU47Xnonth!y
meanten,perature
data.(b)Lidat
montl,lymeandataobserved fromttauteProvence(44N,
tiere a2 a.nd 0,4 a.re the amplitudes of the annual a.nd 6lg).'l'befit to thelidardatais based
onall thedatabut
scmimmualterms, respectively;aa and a. are the corrc- monthlymeansare showix
for sakeof clarity.
sp,mdingpha,scs.Althoughsimplecosinefimctionsare
noperfectrepresentations
of the variations,theyarea,d- sis has been carried out for the rest of tlte !idar-derived
equateto describethe generMbehaviorand he rdafive mesospherictemperatures.Between60 and70 km there
effects a,t the different latitudes. The slope a0 of the is a cooling
of about4 K in the 1980--1990
timeperiod
linea,r term is a measure of the rend in the data.. Ta-
(t!auchecorne
et al., 1990).A lidartemperature
trend
Me 1 giveshe resultingcoefficient
vMuesandtheir1 a.nalysisfor the tixneperiod1979- 1985(correspmding
uncertMnties.
to the wasting part of solarcycle21) wascarriedout
ly Chaninet a/.(1987). The results,excluding wint.
er
Results of the Trend Analysis u,nths due to extremevaria.bilityof tempera,
t,ured,tr-
ingt,ha,t`peri,d,indicatea decreasing
trendof lesstha
Temperatures
fromthezonallyaveraged
SSU47Xdata ! K/yr.
at 44Nwereanalyzedtincordingto the procedures out- The SSU47X data wasanalyzedat differentlatitudes
lined a,bove.The resultingfit to the data, includingthe between
4-40 latitude.Figure3 presents
thetrendia
annual a.ndsemia,mmalterms and the trend line, is shown perccitt
c!ta.nge
peryearasa function
of latitude.All
i Figure2a. The temperaturedecrease
for the period la,t,itmlcsdisplaya nega,
tive temperature
trend,ranging
1980 to 1990 is 3.5 4- 0.5 K per alcoa,
de. A sinfilaranal- }etwecn -0.07 and-0.16%per year,depending onlati-
ysiswasca.triedout`for the lidar data. Figure2b shows
the fit,a,ndtrendline (linear term) cMculatedtsingthe
ra.wlidar data. Binned monthly means are plotted for
cla.rit,
y of presentation.The result for the 10.-yea,
r pe-
riod is a,tempera,
lure decreaseof 2.5 4- 1.0 K. Tlere is o. -0.05
g,)dagreement
betweenthe datasets. Similara.naly-

TABLE 1. Fit CoefficientsFroxn the Temperature Data

Coefficient Lidar $SU47X . -0.15

ao -0.25 0.!0 -0.35 :k 0.03

a. 256.0 :k 0.3 246.4 :k 0.1
a 6.14 q- 0.4 5.57 :k 0.13 -0.2() ......
-50 -40 , ......0 I0,
-30 -20-10 ,
20 30 50
Latitude
a3 1985.46 q- 0.01 1985.45 4. 0.01
a4 3.9 q- 0.4 1.78 0.13 Fig.3. PercentagetitsageperyearfortheSSU47Xtemper-
at:uredataas a functionof latitude. Error barsslow
a, 1985.34 4- 0.01 1985.35 4- 0.01 uncertainties.
 Aikinet al.' Texnperature
Trends
in theLowerllesosphcre 419

rude.Aualysis
of46-55km rocketdata.for theequatorial Chanin,M.L.,Variabilityof the atmospheric
structure
regi{,n
showeda sirfila.r
decrease
of 2.4 K for the period witIxsolarflux {invitedpaper),Proceedings
of the
1973-1985(Augell,1987). Sth LiegeC.olloquium:Our ChangingAtmosphere,
pp. 275--285, 1989
Conclusion
Cha.nin,M.L., sad A. Hauchecorne,
Lidar studies{ftem-
The temperaturedecreasepredicted in the 55 km re-
pcra.ture
anddensityusingrayleighscattering,MAP
Handbook,13, 87--99,1984.
gion
dueto thegreenhouse
effectis 1.5to 2 K perdecade
(WMO,OS0)(Rivdeta!., 1990).Datapresented here Cha.nin,M.L., and A. Hauclteconte,
Long-termvaria-
s!lowanevensteeperdecrease confluxtingthat the neso- tion of tile texnperature
of the ariddieatmosphere
sphere is coolingas predicted.The lowermesosplmre is at nid.!atitude:Dynamicalandradiativecauses,.L
idealfor observinglong-term temperature trendsin the Oeophys.Res.,92, 10933-10941,1987.
atiddlea,[mosphere. While the stra.
t.osphereand upper Cla.ncy,
R.T., andD.W. Rusch,Climatology andtrends
mesosphere both exhibit a strong solar cycle behavior of mesospheric
(58-90kin) temperatures
basedupon
req,iringseveralcyclesof co,ttixtuousobservationbefore 1982- 1986SME limb scatteringprofiles,J. Geo-
a.trendcanbe estal!ished, the 50 to 60 k,n regionhas phys.Res.,94, 3377-3393, 1989.
a smallersolar dependencebased on correlation studies Gille, S.T., A. Hauchecorne,
a.ndM.L. Chanin,Sexnidi-
between
solarflux andlidar temperaturedata (Chanin urnal and diurnal tidal effects in the middle atmo-
et a/.,1989).The negativetrendsobservedin both the sphereas seenby Rayleighlidar, Submittedto J.
ground-based lidar and the satelli.
te-borneSSU47X data Geophys.lies., 1990
setsare the nost significant aspect of the results. Ten
Hauchecorne, A., M.L. Chanin,a.ndP. KecklmtClima-
years of data is still somewhat spa.rse in deterxnining tology and trends of the middle atmospherictem-
trendswhen consideringfactors such as differencesin
pers.tare(33-87 kin) asseenby Rayleighlidar above
solarradiationaccompanyingsolar cycleswith different tile sout.hof Frtce, Submit.
ted to J. Geophys.Res.,
,

maximran outputs,however,the data setis the longest 1990

availableto {late in this important altitude. The lower
Nash, J., Extension of explicit radiance observations
mesosphere is an important placeto look for ea.rlyindica.-
by the stratosphericsoundingunit into the lower
tionsof anthropogenic modificationsof the a.mOSlhere
stratosphereand lower mesosphere,Q.J.R. Meteo-
causing a decrease in temperatureand a,changein
roL So.,114, 1153-1171,1988.
corcentra.tion. Expected long-termchanges are.la.rgea.nl
canbedetected by currenttechnology. A long-tcrnx pro- Nash, J., and P. Edge, Temperature changesin the
graminvolvinga combinationof lida.rand the 47X cha,n- stratosphereand lower mesosphere1979-1988, in-
nel of the SSU instrument sttould be maintained. The ferredfromTOVS radianceobservations, Adv Space
results front sucha study shouldprovide the first tall- lies., 9, 333-341, 1990.
ableestimates
of a.tmospheric to anthropogenic Rind, D., R. Suozzo, N.K. BMachandra.n and M.J.
response
changes
in composition. Prather, Climate chaage and the xxfiddleatmo-
sphere:The d(,tbled CO clima.te, J. Atmos. $ci.,
References 47', 475-494, 1990.
Waltersdruid,R.L., and S.V. enkateswaran,Influence
Angell,
J.K.,Rocketsonde
evidence
for a stratospheric of mean zonal motion sad meridional temperature
temperature
decreasein he westerntxemisphere gradientson the solar semidiurnalatmospherictide:
during1973-85,Mort. Weather Rev., 11, 25(19- A spectral study. II, Numerical results, Y. A tmos.
2577,1987. Sci.',36, 1636-1660,1979.
Berington,
P. R.,19(19,
DataReduction
andErrorAnal. Worhl MeteorolgicalOrgaatization,Report of the inter-
sisfor the PhysicalSciences,
McGraw-Hill,New national ozonetrendspanel, Global Ozonelies. and
k\,rk Moult. Proj. Rep. 1 , Vol. I, Geneva, 1{190.
Bra.sseur,
G., An interactive
chemical
dynamical
radia-
tive two-dimensionalmodel of the nfiddle atmo-
sphere,
Y. Geophys.
Res.,95, 5639-5655,
1990.
Arthur C. Aikin, Code 91.6, NASA Goddard Space
Bra.sse,
r, G., andM.H. Hitchxna.n,
Strntospheric
re- Flight Center, Greenbelt,MD 20771
spouse
to tracegasperturbations:Changesin ozone David J. Kendig,ST SystemsCorporation(STX),
andtemperature
distributions,
Science,
240, 634- 4400 Forbes Blvd., Lanham, MD 20706
(137,1088.
Brownscombe,
J.L.,J. Nash,G. Vaughan,
andC.F.
Rogers,
Solartidesin theariddie
atmosphere,
I,
Description
of satellite
observations
andcompari- (ReceivedOctober16, 1990)
son
withtheoretical
calculations
at equinox,
Q.J.R. (RevisedDecember10, 1990)
Meteorol.
Soc.,
111,.677-(189,
1985. (AcceptedJanuary14, 1991)