SERIA HISTORICA ULTIMOS 10 AOS

1. SERIE HISTORICA

TPD Autos Buses Camiones

AO 0bservado
%A %B %C
2002 850 63 5 32
2003 1053 63 4 33
2004 1217 56 3 41
2005 1247 57 4 39
2006 1224 62 5 33
2007 1584 68 2 30
2008 1561 55 5 39
2009 4283 60 5 35
2010 1978 48 7 45
2011 1556 47 9 44

ANALISIS ESTADISTICOS

TPD
0bservado
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
f(x) = 178.5515151515x - 356608.315151499
2000
R = 0.3062274259
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

DEFINIR MODELO DE CRECIMIENTO

 Regresin que mas se ajusta y = 2E-30e0.0372x
y = 2E-30e0.0372 R = 0.407
R = 0.407

ESTIMAR TRANSITO FUTURO

AO (Nj)
2019 808
2020 839
2021 871
2022 904
2023 938
2024 973
2025 1010
2026 1048
2027 1088
2028 1129
2029 1172
2030 1217
2031 1263
2032 1311
2033 1360

CORRECCION DEL TRANSITO PROYECTADO

AO (Yi) (Ymodeloi) (Yi-Ymodeloi)

2002 850 429 177241
2003 1053 446 368449
2004 1217 463 568516
2005 1247 480 588289
2006 1224 498 527076
2007 1584 517 1138489
2008 1561 537 1048576
2009 4283 557 13883076
2010 1978 578 1960000
2011 1556 600 913936
21173648

Clculo del error estandar

AO ((Xj-XX) ((Xi-XX)
Proyectado Observado
2019 2002 156.25 20.25
2020 2003 182.25 12.25
2021 2004 210.25 6.25
2022 2005 240.25 2.25
2023 2006 272.25 0.25
2024 2007 306.25 0.25
2025 2008 342.25 2.25
2026 2009 380.25 6.25
2027 2010 420.25 12.25
2028 2011 462.25 20.25
2029 506.25
2030 552.25
2031 600.25
2032 650.25
2033 702.25
82.5

Valores de correccion (Cj) para los Nj

R (%)
Zr

AO (Nj) pronostico Cj
2019 808 2278.0 2920
2020 839 2526.5 3239
2021 871 2705.6 3469
2022 904 2884.7 3698
2023 938 3063.8 3928
2024 973 3242.9 4157
2025 1010 3422.0 4387
2026 1048 3601.2 4617
2027 1088 3780.3 4846
2028 1129 3959.4 5076
2029 1172 4138.5 5306
2030 1217 4317.6 5535
2031 1263 4496.7 5765
2032 1311 4675.8 5994
2033 1360 4854.9 6224

CalculO N de Diseo

Nmero de vehculos periodo de diseo

 Nmero de vehculos comerciales

NC
NA Atraido 1%
NG Generado 3%

Fds Factor de distribucin de sentido

1 Trnsito un sentido
0.5 Trnsito en dos sentidos

Fca Factor de utilizacin del carril

Fcamin Fe 8.2

AO C2P C2G C3-C4

FACTOR DAO 1.14 3.44 3.74
2006 15.90 77.03 3.63
2007 11.00 59.62 5.23
2008 0.00 0.00 0.00
2009 0.00 0.00 0.00
2010 12.68 44.23 10.79
2011 16.63 38.08 8.15
 2. DISTRIBUCIN PORCENTUAL DE CAMIONES
FC
equivale
C2P C2G C3-C4 C5 C6 nte
1.14 3.44 6.73 4.4 4.72

15.9 77.03 3.63 1.62 1.83 3.22

11 59.62 5.23 6.37 17.78 3.48
0 0 0 0 0 0.04
0 0 0 0 0 0.04
12.68 44.23 10.79 8.78 23.52 3.63
16.63 38.08 8.15 6.91 30.24 3.59

TPD
servado
4500
4000
TPD 3500
0bservado
3000
Linear (TPD
0bservado) 2500
1499 f(x) = 3583
2000 R = 0.306
1500
1000
500
0
2008 2010 2012
2000 2002 20
30e0.0372x

n 10
1626.870

pronostico XX 2006.500
 n 15
2278.0
2526.5
2705.6
2884.7
3063.8
3242.9
3422.0
3601.2
3780.3
3959.4
4138.5
4317.6
4496.7
4675.8
4854.9

90
1.282 8000

7000
N'j
3728.36 6000
4077.94
4339.57 5000
4602.19
4000
TPDS

4865.81
5130.43 3000
5397.05
5664.68 2000
5934.30
6204.92 1000
6477.54
0
6752.17 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
7027.79 AO
7305.41
7584.03 TDPS Power (TDPS)
85092.18

31058646 A B C
 10594196 66% 26% 8%
0.658897039 0.26039267 0.0807103
0.3411029606

10594196
105941.9626
317825.8877

Fe
0.80000
1
0.70000
0.60000
0.50000 f(x) = 0.0587236587x - 117.5357779554
Axis Title

R = 0.1159924195
0.40000
0.30000
0.20000
0.10000
0.00000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Axis Title

8.2 ton
C5 C6 C% B% Fe camin Fe
4.4 4.72 1
1.62 1.83 33 5 3.125 0.47836
6.37 17.78 30 2 3.491 0.47231
0.00 0.00 39 5 0.000 0.02212
0.00 0.00 35 5 0.000 0.02212
8.78 23.52 45 7 3.566 0.74103
6.91 30.24 44 9 3.536 0.72819
226
y = 0.0587x - 117.5
R = 0.116

N ejes 8. 15273101.84
 TPD
0bservado
4500
4000
3500
TPD
3000 0bservado
2500 Logarithmic (TPD
f(x) = 358319.37246404 ln(x) - 2723057.58201268 0bservado)
2000 R = 0.3063236157
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
AO

PS Power (TDPS) Nj N'j

 Fe
Li near (Fe)

2010 2011 2012

AO Fe
130 kN 2019 0.98
Cam 2020 1.03
2021 1.09
2022 1.15
2023 1.21
2024 1.27
2025 1.33
2026 1.39
2027 1.44
2028 1.50
= 0.0587x - 117.54 2029 1.56
R = 0.116 2030 1.62
2031 1.68
2032 1.74
2033 1.80
1.39
 PROYECCION LINEAL

y = 13x - 256 y = 5.433x - y = 1.2376x - 2424.7

TPDS SUMA

Proyectado A B C
2019 585 229 74 888
2020 598 235 75 908
2021 611 240 76 928
2022 624 246 78 947
2023 637 251 79 967
2024 650 256 80 987
2025 663 262 81 1006
2026 676 267 83 1026
2027 689 273 84 1046
2028 702 278 85 1065
2029 715 284 86 1085
2030 728 289 88 1105
2031 741 294 89 1124
2032 754 300 90 1144
2033 767 305 91 1164
PROM

TPD
0bservado
4500
4000
TPD 3500
0bservado
Logarithmic (TPD 3000
0bservado) 2500
2000 f(x) = 9.57084308493817E-88 exp( 0.103501507 x )
R = 0.5050754484
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
YECCION LINEAL

PORCENTAJE

A B C
66% 26% 8%
65.9% 25.8% 8.3%
65.9% 25.9% 8.2%
65.9% 25.9% 8.2%
65.9% 26.0% 8.2%
65.9% 26.0% 8.1%
65.9% 26.0% 8.1%
65.9% 26.1% 8.1%
65.9% 26.1% 8.0%
65.9% 26.1% 8.0%
65.9% 26.1% 8.0%
65.9% 26.2% 7.9%
65.9% 26.2% 7.9%
65.9% 26.2% 7.9%
65.9% 26.2% 7.8%
66% 26% 8%

D
vado

TPD
0bservado
Exponential (TPD
0bservado)
( 0.103501507 x )

008 2010 2012