1

Market Pulse
September 2017
 Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of nearly 300 California REALTORS.
The survey was sent via email to a random sample of 10,000
REALTORS throughout California. The sample represented
the geographical distribution of C.A.R. membership across
the state.
Respondents are asked about their last closed transaction
and business activity in their market area for the previous
month.
 3

Market Conditions
 Floor Calls Up, Bounces Back
Index (>50 is positive)

80
70
60 58
50
Index

44
40 49

30
20
10
0

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Listing Appointments/Client Presentations Up
Index (>50 is positive)
80

70

60

50 49
Index

40 46 47

30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Open House Traffic Flat

90
Index (>50 is positive)

80

70

60 54 54
52
50
Index

40

30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 All Cash Purchases Below 50, But Up YTY
Index (>50 is positive)
70

60

50

40 47 45
Index

43
30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Biggest Concern is Lack of Inventory
Lack of Inventory 35%

Decline in housing affordability 25%

Inflated home prices 14%

Slow down in economic growth 6%

Housing bubble 5%

Rising interest rates 3%

Policy & regulations 3%

Lending & financing 0.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Concerns About Inventory Increases YTY
Inventory Affordability
60%

50%

40% 35% 35%

30% 25%

20% 24% 25%

22%

10%

0%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Affordability and Prices are the Biggest
Concerns for REALTORS
Prices (Affordability, Prices, Bubble) Inventory

60%

50% 47% 45% 44%

40%

30% 35% 35%

20% 25%

10%

0%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Expectations Above 50, But Decreasing
Index (>50 is positive)
90
80
70
60 56
54 52
50
Index

40
30
20
10
0

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 12

Last Transaction
 More Properties Selling Above Asking
Price from a Year Ago
Net % of Properties Selling Below/Above Asking Price

10%
1%
0%
-9%
-10% -6%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 More Transactions Selling at Asking
Below At Over

100%
90% 31%
31%
80% 29%
70%
60% 43%
29%
50%
32%
40%
30%
37%
20% 40%
28%
10%
0%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Percentage Paid Below Asking Price Drops

0%

-5%

-10%

-12% -12%
-15%
-15%

-20%

-25%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Premium Paid Increases to New Peak
Average

14% 13%
12%
12%

10%
8%
8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Multiple Offers Flat from a Year Ago
80%

70% 63%
63%
60%
60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Number of Offers Up Slightly from Last Year
4.0 Average

3.5

3.0
2.6 2.7 2.7
2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 4+ Offers Increases from Last Year
Sep-16 Sep-17

40% 37%
35%
35%

30% 27%

25% 22%
18% 18%
20%

15%
7% 8% 7%
10% 6% 7%
5%
5%

0%
1 2 3 4 5 6+
Number of Offers
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of 3+ Up From Last Year
80%

70%

60%

50%
41%
40%

30% 35% 38%

20%

10%

0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Market Competitiveness Increases in High End
Sep-16 Sep-17
75%
Percentage of Properties Receiving 3+

80%
69%
70%
60% 50%
50%
45% 44%
40% 41% 41%
35% 33%
Offers

40% 31% 30% 32% 32%

30% 23%
20%
10% 0%
0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Listing Price Reductions Increases Annually
35%

30%
26%
25%
25% 23%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of Buyers Who Were Renters Down YTY

60%

50%

39%
40% 37% 38%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 More Sellers Are Becoming Renters From a Year Ago
25%

20%
17%
15%
15% 14%

10%

5%

0%

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Share of First-time Buyers Increases
45% % First-time Buyers Long Run Average (32%)
40%
36%
35% 31% 33%

30%

25% 27%
20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Majority Purchases are Primary Residences
Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Share of Investment Properties Down From
Last Year
Investment Vacation home
30%

25%

20%
3%

15% 5%

3%
10%
17%
13%
5%
10%

0%

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of International Buyers Decreases YTY

% International Buyers Long Run Average (6.2%)

12%

10%

8%
6.5%
6%
5.4%
4% 4.8%

2%

0%

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 What are REALTORS Saying?

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share with us--such
as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or other topics?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 What are REALTORS Saying?
Houses are taking longer to sell, there are more price
reductions happening.

Market is definitely softening this fourth quarter.

The economy seems strong so buyers and sellers seem

optimistic.

Appraisals are coming in at value, despite the rising market.

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share with us--such as
information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or other topics?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey