Ejercicios Desarrollados de Elaborac Proyectos Log

AO DE LA DIVERSIFICACION PRODUCTIVA Y DEL FORTALECIMIENTO EN
LA EDUCACION
UNIVERSIDAD PRIVADA ANTENOR ORREGO

FACULTAD DE INGENIERIA
ESCUELA PROFESIONAL DE INGENIERIA CIVIL
CURSO: ELABORACION Y EVALUACION DE PROYECTOS
TEMA: EJERCICIOS DESARROLLADOS (1-3)
GRUPO/SECCION: V / A
DOCENTE: ING. RODRIGUEZ JUSTINIANO, HOLGER
INTEGRANTES:
AGUILAR CERQUIN, CAROLINA
ARTEAGA JUAREZ, LUIGUI
MOGOLLON ZEGARRA. JEFREE
PESANTES ZAVALA, MIKE
RODRIGUEZ VALENCIA, RENATO
SIMON CASTILLO, JUAN
VARGAS CHANZAPA, ROGER
NRC TURNO SEMESTRE

585-586 LUNES Y MIERCOLES (8:50- 2015-20
10:35) AM (11:35-1:20) PM
TRUJILLO PER
2015
Elaboracin y Evaluacin de Proyectos
INDICE
1. EJERCICIO #1 - MODELO DE CONSUMO EN FUNCION DEL TIEMPO 3
2. EJERCICIO #2 - MODELO DE CONSUMON EN FUNCION DE LA POBLACION 12
3. EJERCICIOS #3 MODELO DE CONSUMO EN FUNCION DEL INGRESO

PROMEDIO 21
4. GRAFICAS Y CUADRO DE DECISIONES 30
2
MODELO DE CONSUMO EN FUNCION DEL TIEMPO

PROYECCIN DEL CONSUMO:
.
= = . %
.
Entonces el consumo en los siguientes 10 aos ser:
Aos CONSUMO Aos CONSUMO

1 4.8 11 13.03
2 5.6 12 14.27
3 6.5 13 15.63
4 7.3 14 17.11
5 8.1 15 18.74
6 8.5 16 20.52
7 9.1 17 22.47
8 9.8 18 24.60
9 10.4 19 26.94
10 11.9 20 29.50
MODELO DE REGRESIN LINEAL: = + () = +

X Y X^2 Y^2 XY
1 13.03 1 169.807 13.031
2 14.27 4 203.618 28.539
3 15.63 9 244.162 46.877
4 17.11 16 292.778 68.443
5 18.74 25 351.075 93.685
6 20.52 36 420.979 123.107
7 22.47 49 504.803 157.275
8 24.60 64 605.317 196.826
9 26.94 81 725.846 242.474
10 29.50 100 870.373 295.021
55 202.81 385 4388.757 1265.276
3
10(1265.276) (55)(202.81)
= = = 1.816
2 ( )2 10(385) (55)2
202.81 55
= = (1.816) = 10.291
10 10
La ecuacin queda: = 10.291 + 1.816 () = 10.291 + 1.816
Coeficiente de Correlacin:
10(1265.276) (55)(202.81)
= =
[ 2 ( )2 ][ 2 ( )2 ] [10(385) 552 ][10(4388.76) 202.812 ]
= 0.99351
Coeficiente de Determinacin:
2 = (0.9935)2 = 0.987 = 98.71%

PRUEBA F (ANLISIS DE VARIANZA)
(0.95;9;9) = 3.179
2 0.9871
( 1) (2 1)
= = = 610.633
(1 2 ) (1 0.9871)
( ) (10 2)
Como el valor de nuestro estadstico de prueba est en la regin de rechazo, entonces se puede
asumir que las varianzas son diferentes entre las variable.
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA DE PARMETROS:
2
= ( )
2 =

= 2 = ( )
1
= ( ) ( )1 = ( )
2
4
Reemplazamos en las formulas:

202.81
= 4388.757 (10.291 1.816) ( ) = 3.5655
1265.276
2 3.5655
=
= 0.4457
10 2
385 55
( )
10 55 1 0.4666 0.0666
( )1 =( ) = 55 10 2 = ( )
55 385 10(385) 55 0.066 0.1212
0.4666 0.0666 (0.4457) 0.031 0.004
( ) = ( ) =( )
0.066 0.1212 0.004 0.0008
() = 0.0310000451 () = 0.0176
() = 0.0008051962 () = 0.0283
PRUEBA T PARA LOS PARMETROS POBLACIONALES
Hiptesis:
: = 0
1: 0
Valor del estadstico:
10.291
= = = 22.568
() 0.456
Valor t en la Tabla:
(0.975;8)= 2.306
Grfico de Contraste
5
Desicio0n y conclusin: Como el valor de nuestro estadstico de prueba cae en la regin de rechazo
de Ho entonces se acepta H1; por lo que el intercepto es diferente de cero para un nivel de
confianza del 95%.
MODELO DE REGRESIN SEMI LOGARITMICA: = = +

X ln(Y) X^2 (ln Y)^2 (X)(ln Y)
1 1.569 1.000 2.461 1.569
2 1.723 4.000 2.968 3.446
3 1.872 9.000 3.504 5.615
4 1.988 16.000 3.952 7.951
5 2.092 25.000 4.376 10.459
6 2.140 36.000 4.580 12.840
7 2.208 49.000 4.876 15.458
8 2.282 64.000 5.209 18.259
9 2.342 81.000 5.484 21.076
10 2.477 100.000 6.133 24.765
55 20.692 385.000 43.543 121.439
ln ln 10(121.439) (55)(20.692)
= = = 0.0925
2 ( )2 10(385) (55)2
ln 20.692 55
ln = = (0.0925) = 1.5603
10 10
La ecuacin queda: ln = 1.5603 + 0.0925 = 4.7602 0.0925
ln ln
= = 0.98583
[ 2 ( )2 ][ (ln )2 ( ln )2 ]
2 = (0.98583)2 = 0.97186 = 97.186%

2 0.97186
( 1) (2 1)
= 2 = = 276.3416
(1 ) (1 0.97186)
( ) (10 2)
6
= ln 2 ( )
2
=

= 2
= ( )

= ( )

1

( )1 = ( )
2

55
= 43.543 (1.56 0.09) ( ) = 0.020447
121.439
2 0.020447
=
= 0.002555
10 2
385 55
( )
( 1 10 55 1 55 10 0.46666 0.0666
) =( ) = =( )
55 385 10(385) (55)2 0.0666 0.01212
0.46666 0.0666 (0.002555) 0.00119274 0.00017039
( ) = ( ) =( )
0.0666 0.01212 0.00017039 0.00003098
7
() = 0.00119274 () = 0.034536
() = 0.00003098 () = 0.005566
Hiptesis:
: = 0
1: 0
1.56
= = = 45.1788
() 0.0345
(0.975;8)= 2.306
Grfico de Contraste
confianza del 95%.
8
MODELO DE REGRESIN DOBLE LOGARITMICA: = +

ln(X) Y (ln X)^2 Y^2 (ln X)( Y)
0.000 4.800 0.000 23.040 0.000
0.693 5.600 0.480 31.360 3.882
1.099 6.500 1.207 42.250 7.141
1.386 7.300 1.922 53.290 10.120
1.609 8.100 2.590 65.610 13.036
1.792 8.500 3.210 72.250 15.230
1.946 9.100 3.787 82.810 17.708
2.079 9.800 4.324 96.040 20.379
2.197 10.400 4.828 108.160 22.851
2.303 11.900 5.302 141.610 27.401
15.104 82.000 27.650 716.420 137.747
(ln ) ln 10(137.747) (15.104)(82)

= = = 2.87246
(ln )2 ( ln )2 10(27.65) (15.104)2
ln 82 15.0104
= = (2.87246) = 3.8613
10 10
La ecuacin queda: = 3.8613 + 2.87246 ln
(ln ) ln
= = 0.95207
[ (ln )2 ( ln )2 ][ ()2 ( )2 ]
2 = (0.95207)2 = 0.9064 = 90.64%

Prueba F (anlisis de Varianza)
2 0.9064
( 1) (2 1)
= = = 77.502
(1 2 ) (1 0.9064)
( ) (10 2)
9
Anlisis de Varianza de Parmetros:
2
= ln 2 ( ) =

= 2 = ( )
1
= ( ) ( )1 = ( )
2
55
= 43.543 (1.56 0.09) ( ) = 0.020447
121.439
2 0.020447
=
= 0.002555
10 2
385 55
( )
( 1 10 55 1 55 10 0.46666 0.0666
) =( ) = =( )
55 385 10(385) (55)2 0.0666 0.01212
0.46666 0.0666 (0.002555) 0.00119274 0.00017039
( ) = ( ) =( )
0.0666 0.01212 0.00017039 0.00003098
() = 0.00119274 () = 0.034536
() = 0.00003098 () = 0.005566
10
Hiptesis:
: = 0
1: 0
1.56
= = = 45.1788
() 0.0345
(0.975;8)= 2.306
Grfico de Contraste
Decisin y conclusin: Como el valor de nuestro estadstico de prueba cae en la regin de rechazo
confianza del 95%.
11
MODELO DE CONSUMO EN FUNCION DE LA POBLACION

.
= = . %
.
Aos TOTAL Aos TOTAL

1 3.1 11 8.99
2 3.45 12 9.90
3 3.84 13 10.91
4 4.28 14 12.02
5 4.75 15 13.24
6 5.28 16 14.58
7 5.88 17 16.07
8 6.55 18 17.70
9 5.39 19 19.50
10 8.16 20 21.48
MODELO DE REGRESIN LINEAL: = +

X Y X^2 Y^2 XY
8.99 13.03 80.81 169.81 117.14
9.90 14.27 98.06 203.62 141.31
10.91 15.63 119.01 244.16 170.46
12.02 17.11 144.43 292.78 205.63
13.24 18.74 175.27 351.07 248.06
14.58 20.52 212.70 420.98 299.24
16.07 22.47 258.13 504.80 360.98
17.70 24.60 313.26 605.32 435.46
19.50 26.94 380.16 725.85 525.30
21.48 29.50 461.36 870.37 633.68
144.385 202.806 2243.192 4388.757 3137.254
10(3137.254) (144.385)(202.81)
= = = 1.3189
2 ( )2 10(2243.192) (144.385)2
202.806 144.385
= = (1.3189) = 1.2376
10 10
12
La ecuacin queda: = 1.2376 + 1.3189

= = 0.9999725
[ 2 ( )2 ][ 2 ( )2 ]
2 = (0.9999725)2 = 0.999945 = 99.99%

(0.95;9;9) = 3.179
2 0.999945
( 1) (2 1)
= = = 145437.89
(1 2 ) (1 0.999945)
( ) (10 2)
2
= 2 ( ) =

= 2 = ( )
1
= ( ) ( )1 = ( )
2
144.385
= 4388.757 (1.2376 1.3189) ( ) = 0.01516
3137.254
2 0.01516
=
= 0.00189567
10 2
13
2243.192 144.385
1 ( )
( )1 10 144.385 144.385 10
=( ) =
144.385 2243.192 10(2243.192) (144.385)2
1.4153 0.09109
=( )
0.09109 0.006309
1.4153 0.09109 (0.001895) 0.0026829 0.00017
( ) = ( ) =( )
0.09109 0.006309 0.00017 0.00001196
() = 0.00268296 () = 0.05179729
() = 0.00001196 () = 0.00630934
Hiptesis:
: = 0
1: 0
1.2376
= = = 23.89
() 0.05179
(0.975;8)= 2.306
Grfico de Contraste
confianza del 95%.
14
MODELO DE REGRESIN SEMILOGARTIMICA: = = +

8.99 2.567 80.806 6.591 23.078
9.90 2.658 98.064 7.066 26.323
10.91 2.749 119.008 7.557 29.988
12.02 2.840 144.425 8.064 34.127
13.24 2.930 175.270 8.588 38.797
14.58 3.021 212.703 9.128 44.064
16.07 3.112 258.131 9.685 50.000
17.70 3.203 313.261 10.258 56.688
19.50 3.294 380.164 10.848 64.219
21.48 3.384 461.357 11.455 72.696
144.38 29.759 2243.192 89.240 439.980
ln ln 10(439.98) (144.38)(29.759)
= = = 0.06502
2 ( )2 10(2243.192) (144.38)2
ln 29.759 144.38
ln = = (0.06502) = 2.037
10 10
ln ln
= = 0.99264
[ 2 ( )2 ][ (ln )2 ( ln )2 ]
2 = (0.90264)2 = 0.985344 = 98.53%

2 0.9853
( 1) (2 1)
= = = 537.85
(1 2 ) (1 0.9853)
( ) (10 2)
15
2
= ln 2 ( ) =

= 2 = ( )
1
= ( ) ( )1 = ( )
2
144.38
= 89.240 (2.037 0.0650) ( ) = 0.009967
439.98
2 0.009967
=
= 0.00124588
10 2
2243.192 144.38
( )
( 1 10 144.38 1 144.38 10 1.4153 0.09109
) =( ) = =( )
144.38 2243.192 10(2243.192) (144.38)2 0.09109 0.006309
1.4153 0.09109 (0.00124588) 0.0017633 0.0001135
( ) = ( ) =( )
0.09109 0.006309 0.0001135 0.000078607
() = 0.0017633 () = 0.04199
() = 0.000078607 () = 0.0028
16
Hiptesis:
: = 0
1: 0
2.03707
= = = 48.511
() 0.0028
(0.975;8)= 2.306
Grfico de Contraste
confianza del 95%.
17
MODELO DE REGRESIN BOBLE LOGARITMICA: = +

ln(X) Y (ln X)^2 Y^2 (ln X)( Y)
2.196 13.031 4.823 169.807 28.616
2.293 14.269 5.257 203.618 32.717
2.390 15.626 5.710 244.162 37.339
2.486 17.111 6.182 292.778 42.544
2.583 18.737 6.673 351.075 48.401
2.680 20.518 7.182 420.979 54.987
2.777 22.468 7.710 504.803 62.387
2.874 24.603 8.257 605.317 70.698
2.970 26.942 8.823 725.846 80.024
3.067 29.502 9.407 870.373 90.485
26.316 202.806 70.024 4388.757 548.199
(ln ) ln 10(548.199) (26.316)(202.806)

= = = 18.766
(ln )2 ( ln )2 10(70.024) (26.316)2
ln 202.806 26.316
= = (18.766) = 29.1035
10 10
(ln ) ln
= = 0.9935
[ (ln )2 ( ln )2 ][ ()2 ( )2 ]
2 = (0.9935)2 = 0.98707 = 98.71%

2 0.98707
( 1) (2 1)
= = = 610.632
(1 2 ) (1 0.98707)
( ) (10 2)
18
2
= 2 ( ) =

= 2 = ( )
1
= ( ) ( )1 = ( )
2
26.316
= 4388.757 (29.103 18.766) ( ) = 3.5655
548.199
2 3.5655
=
= 0.445689
10 2
70.024 26.316
( )
( 1 10 26.316 1 26316 10 9.0611 3.405
) =( ) = =( )
26.316 70.024 10(70.024) (26.316)2 3.405 1.294
9.0611 3.405 (0.445689) 4.0384 1.5177
( ) = ( ) =( )
3.405 1.294 1.5177 0.5767
() = 4.0384 () = 2.009
() = 0.5767 () = 0.759
19
Hiptesis:
: = 0
1: 0
29.1035
= = = 14.482
() 2.009
(0.975;8)= 2.306
Grfico de Contraste
confianza del 95%.
20
MODELO DE CONSUMO EN FUNCION DEL INGRESO PROMEDIO

.
= = . %
.
MODELO DE REGRESIN LINEAL: = +
Aos Ingreso Aos Ingreso

1 12.5 11 58.54
2 18.03 12 67.36
3 20.5 13 77.50
4 23.33 14 89.18
5 26.2 15 102.62
6 30.2 16 118.08
7 34.4 17 135.88
8 39.17 18 156.35
9 44.67 19 179.91
10 50.87 20 207.02
X Y X^2 Y^2 XY
58.54 13.03 3426.37 169.81 762.77
67.36 14.27 4536.74 203.62 961.13
77.50 15.63 6006.96 244.16 1211.06
89.18 17.11 7953.62 292.78 1525.99
102.62 18.74 10531.14 351.07 1922.81
118.08 20.52 13943.94 420.98 2422.83
135.88 22.47 18462.73 504.80 3052.87
156.35 24.60 24445.91 605.32 3846.76
179.91 26.94 32368.05 725.85 4847.08
207.02 29.50 42857.51 870.37 6107.54
1192.445 202.806 164532.966 4388.757 26660.844
10(26660.84) (1192.445)(202.81)
= = = 0.1109
2 ( )2 10(164532.966) (1192.445)2
202.806 1192.445
= = (0.1109) = 7.0577
10 10
La ecuacin queda: = 7.0577 + 0.1109
21

= = 0.99816
[ 2 ( )2 ][ 2 ( )2 ]
2 = (0.99816)2 = 0.9963 = 99.63%

(0.95;9;9) = 3.179
2 0.9963
( 1) (2 1)
= = = 2170.86
(1 2 ) (1 0.9963)
( ) (10 2)
2
= 2 ( ) =

= 2 = ( )
1
= ( ) ( )1 = ( )
2
1192.445
= 4388.757 (7.05772 0.1109) ( ) = 1.01233
26660.76
2 1.01233
=
= 0.1265
10 2
22
( )1 = ( 10 1192.445 1 164532.97 1192.445

) =( )
1192.445 164532.96 1192.445 10
0.093196 0.000675
( ) = ( )
0.000675 0.00000566
() = 0.09319602 () = 0.30528
() = 0.0000056643 () = 0.00238
Hiptesis:
: = 0
1: 0
7.058
= = = 23.118
() 0.305
(0.975;8)= 2.306
Grfico de Contraste
confianza del 95%.
23
MODELO DE REGRESIN EXPONENCIAL: = = +

58.54 2.567 3426.367 6.591 150.279
67.36 2.658 4536.743 7.066 179.039
77.50 2.749 6006.957 7.557 213.053
89.18 2.840 7953.620 8.064 253.254
102.62 2.930 10531.135 8.588 300.732
118.08 3.021 13943.941 9.128 356.768
135.88 3.112 18462.729 9.685 422.863
156.35 3.203 24445.911 10.258 500.776
179.91 3.294 32368.053 10.848 592.568
207.02 3.384 42857.509 11.455 700.653
1192 29.759 164532.966 89.240 3669.984
ln ln
= = 0.0054
2 ( )2
ln
ln = = 2.3279

ln ln
= = 0.9848
[ 2 ( )2 ][ (ln )2 ( ln )2 ]
2 = (0.9848)2 = 0.9699 = 96.99%

2
( 1)
= = 257.87
(1 2 )
( )
24
= ln 2 ( )
2
=

= 2
= ( )

= ( )

1

( )1 = ( )
2
= 0.020465
2
= 0.00255782

( )1 = ( 0.736 0.00533
)
0.00533 0.0000447
0.00188 0.00017039
( ) = ( )
0.00017039 0.00000011449
() = 0.00188 () = 0.0434
25
() = 0.00000011449 () = 0.000338
Hiptesis:
: = 0
1: 0

= = 53.636
()
(0.975;8)= 2.306
Grfico de Contraste
confianza del 95%.
26
MODELO DE REGRESIN LOGARITMICA: = +

ln(X) Y (ln X)^2 Y^2 (ln X)( Y)
4.070 13.031 16.562 169.807 53.031
4.210 14.269 17.724 203.618 60.074
4.350 15.626 18.925 244.162 67.977
4.491 17.111 20.166 292.778 76.839
4.631 18.737 21.447 351.075 86.772
4.771 20.518 22.766 420.979 97.899
4.912 22.468 24.125 504.803 110.356
5.052 24.603 25.524 605.317 124.298
5.192 26.942 26.962 725.846 139.893
5.333 29.502 28.439 870.373 157.329
47.012 202.806 222.640 4388.757 974.469
(ln ) ln
= = 12.9405
(ln )2 ( ln )2
ln
= = 40.5558

(ln ) ln
= = 9935
[ (ln )2 ( ln )2 ][ ()2 ( )2 ]
2 = (0.95207)2 = 0.9871 = 98.71%

2
( 1)
= = 610.632
(1 2 )
( )
27
2
= ln 2 ( ) =

= 2 = ( )
1
= ( ) ( )1 = ( )
2
= 3.5655
2
= 0.44569

( )1 = ( 13.699 2.8927)
2.8927 0.6153
6.1056 1.2892
( ) = ( )
1.2892 0.2742
() = 6.1056 () = 2.47095
() = 0.2742 () = 0.52367
Hiptesis:
: = 0
1: 0
28

= = 16.413
()
(0.975;8)= 2.306
Grfico de Contraste
confianza del 95%.
29
MODELO LINEAL
20.000
18.000
16.000
14.000
12.000 Consumo lineal
10.000 Produccion lineal

DD. Lineal
8.000
TP. Lineal
6.000
4.000
2.000
0.000
11 13 15 17 19 21
Ao Consumo Produccin lineal DD. Lineal TP. Lineal

lineal
11 12.193 2.787 10.312 15
12 12.919 3.066 10.949 15
13 13.645 3.345 11.585 15
14 14.372 3.625 12.222 15
15 15.098 3.904 12.859 15
16 15.824 4.184 13.496 15
17 16.550 4.463 14.132 15
18 17.276 4.742 14.769 15
19 18.002 5.022 15.406 15
20 18.728 5.301 16.043 15
30
MODELO POTENCIAL
16.000
14.000
12.000 Consumo potencial
10.000
Produccion potencial
8.000
6.000 DD. Potencial
4.000
TP. Potencial
2.000
0.000
11 13 15 17 19 21
Ao Consumo Produccin potencial DD. Potencial TP. Potencial

potencial
11 11.108 2.102 9.307 11.500
12 11.483 2.268 9.640 11.500
13 11.839 2.431 9.958 11.500
14 12.179 2.593 10.262 11.500
15 12.503 2.753 10.553 11.500
16 12.815 2.912 10.834 11.500
17 13.115 3.070 11.106 11.500
18 13.404 3.226 11.368 11.500
19 13.683 3.381 11.623 11.500
20 13.954 3.536 11.870 11.500
31
MODELO EXPONENCIAL
35.000
30.000
25.000
Consumo exponencial
20.000
Produccion exponencial
15.000 DD. Exponencial

TP. Exponencial
10.000
5.000
0.000
11 13 15 17 19 21
Ao Consumo Produccin DD. Exponencial TP.

exponencial exponencial Exponencial
11 13.172 3.513 11.240 26
12 14.449 4.438 12.447 26
13 15.850 5.606 13.801 26
14 17.386 7.082 15.325 26
15 19.072 8.947 17.047 26
16 20.920 11.302 18.997 26
17 22.949 14.277 21.214 26
18 25.173 18.036 23.746 26
19 27.614 22.784 26.648 26
20 30.290 28.781 29.989 26
32
MODELO LOGARITMICO
14.000
12.000
10.000
8.000 Consumo logaritmico

Produccion logaritmica
6.000 DD. Logaritmico

TP. Logaritmico
4.000
2.000
0.000
11 13 15 17 19 21
Ao Consumo Produccin DD. Logartmico TP.

logartmico logartmica Logartmico
11 10.749 2.127 9.025 10.2
12 10.999 2.213 9.242 10.2
13 11.229 2.292 9.442 10.2
14 11.442 2.365 9.627 10.2
15 11.640 2.433 9.799 10.2
16 11.825 2.497 9.960 10.2
17 12.000 2.557 10.111 10.2
18 12.164 2.614 10.254 10.2
19 12.319 2.667 10.389 10.2
20 12.466 2.718 10.517 10.2
33
CUADRO DE DECISION
n k x y x^2 y^2 xy b a r r^2 F

lineal consumo 10 2 55 82 385 716.42 510.9 0.726 4.207 0.994 0.988 657.75
lineal produccin 10 2 55 12.5 385 23.19 91.8 0.279 -0.287 0.923 0.851 45.80
n k ln x ln y (ln x)^2 (ln y)^2 ln xy b ln a r r^2 F
Potencial
Consumo 10 2 15.104 20.692 27.650 43.543 33.099 0.381 1.493 0.984 0.968 242.94
Potencial
Produccin 10 2 15.104 -0.287 27.650 5.038 3.771 0.870 -1.342 0.853 0.727 21.32
n k x ln y x^2 (ln y)^2 x ln y b Ln a r r^2 F
Exponencial
Consumo 10 2 55 20.692 385 43.543 121.439 0.093 1.560 0.986 0.972 276.34
Exponencial
Produccin 10 2 55 -0.287 385 5.038 17.698 0.234 -1.314 0.946 0.896 68.74
n k x ln y x^2 (ln y)^2 x ln y b a r r^2 F
logartmica
consumo 10 2 15.104 82 27.650 716.42 137.747 2.872 3.861 0.952 0.906 77.50
logartmica
produccin 10 2 15.104 12.5 27.650 23.19 23.659 0.988 -0.243 0.790 0.624 13.29
34

Ejercicios Desarrollados de Elaborac Proyectos Log

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AO DE LA DIVERSIFICACION PRODUCTIVA Y DEL FORTALECIMIENTO EN

UNIVERSIDAD PRIVADA ANTENOR ORREGO

CURSO: ELABORACION Y EVALUACION DE PROYECTOS

TEMA: EJERCICIOS DESARROLLADOS (1-3)

DOCENTE: ING. RODRIGUEZ JUSTINIANO, HOLGER

NRC TURNO SEMESTRE

1. EJERCICIO #1 - MODELO DE CONSUMO EN FUNCION DEL TIEMPO 3

2. EJERCICIO #2 - MODELO DE CONSUMON EN FUNCION DE LA POBLACION 12

3. EJERCICIOS #3 MODELO DE CONSUMO EN FUNCION DEL INGRESO

4. GRAFICAS Y CUADRO DE DECISIONES 30

MODELO DE CONSUMO EN FUNCION DEL TIEMPO

Entonces el consumo en los siguientes 10 aos ser:

Aos CONSUMO Aos CONSUMO

MODELO DE REGRESIN LINEAL: = + () = +

2 = (0.9935)2 = 0.987 = 98.71%

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA DE PARMETROS:

Reemplazamos en las formulas:

PRUEBA T PARA LOS PARMETROS POBLACIONALES

MODELO DE REGRESIN SEMI LOGARITMICA: = = +

2 = (0.98583)2 = 0.97186 = 97.186%

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA DE PARMETROS:

Reemplazamos en las formulas:

PRUEBA T PARA LOS PARMETROS POBLACIONALES

MODELO DE REGRESIN DOBLE LOGARITMICA: = +

(ln ) ln 10(137.747) (15.104)(82)

2 = (0.95207)2 = 0.9064 = 90.64%

Anlisis de Varianza de Parmetros:

PRUEBA T PARA LOS PARMETROS POBLACIONALES

MODELO DE CONSUMO EN FUNCION DE LA POBLACION

Entonces el consumo en los siguientes 10 aos ser:

Aos TOTAL Aos TOTAL

MODELO DE REGRESIN LINEAL: = +

La ecuacin queda: = 1.2376 + 1.3189

2 = (0.9999725)2 = 0.999945 = 99.99%

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA DE PARMETROS:

PRUEBA T PARA LOS PARMETROS POBLACIONALES

MODELO DE REGRESIN SEMILOGARTIMICA: = = +

2 = (0.90264)2 = 0.985344 = 98.53%

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA DE PARMETROS:

PRUEBA T PARA LOS PARMETROS POBLACIONALES

MODELO DE REGRESIN BOBLE LOGARITMICA: = +

(ln ) ln 10(548.199) (26.316)(202.806)

2 = (0.9935)2 = 0.98707 = 98.71%

Anlisis de Varianza de Parmetros:

PRUEBA T PARA LOS PARMETROS POBLACIONALES

MODELO DE CONSUMO EN FUNCION DEL INGRESO PROMEDIO

Entonces el consumo en los siguientes 10 aos ser:

MODELO DE REGRESIN LINEAL: = +

Aos Ingreso Aos Ingreso

2 = (0.99816)2 = 0.9963 = 99.63%

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA DE PARMETROS:

( )1 = ( 10 1192.445 1 164532.97 1192.445

PRUEBA T PARA LOS PARMETROS POBLACIONALES

MODELO DE REGRESIN EXPONENCIAL: = = +

2 = (0.9848)2 = 0.9699 = 96.99%

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA DE PARMETROS:

Reemplazamos en las formulas:

PRUEBA T PARA LOS PARMETROS POBLACIONALES

MODELO DE REGRESIN LOGARITMICA: = +

2 = (0.95207)2 = 0.9871 = 98.71%

Anlisis de Varianza de Parmetros:

PRUEBA T PARA LOS PARMETROS POBLACIONALES

Valor del estadstico:

12.000 Consumo lineal