EI-FACT SHEET 2013 - 02
SECURITY OF ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY
The ongoing debate on security of electric power supply in
Belgium has mostly been related to the discussion about the
operation of the Belgian nuclear units. The discussion came
onto the political agenda in the summer of 1999, culminating
in the Federal Act of 31 January 2003, which embedded the
Belgian nuclear phase out. However, the option was left open
to deviate from this calendar if security of supply is at risk.
The topic gained more attention in 2008-2010 when the phase
out was first delayed, and even more so after the Fukushima
nuclear accident in 2011, when yet a different calender was
decided upon in June 2012. Finally, the temporary closure of
Doel 3 and Tihange 2, due to observed indications pointing
to possible flaws in the reactor vessels, even intensified the
debate on whether the electic power supply is still secured.
What are we talking about?
According to Eurelectric, Security of electricity supply is the
ability of the electrical power system to provide electricity to
end-users with a specified level of continuity and quality in a
sustainable manner. The concept of security of electric power
supply is subdivided depending on the time frame:
Short-term: Operational security (also referred to as
operational reliability) the ability of the system to
withstand sudden disturbances such as electric shor t
circuits or unanticipated loss of system elements;
Long-term: Adequacy the ability of the system to supply
the aggregate electrical demand of customers at all times,
taking into account scheduled and reasonably expected
unscheduled outages. Long-term adequacy is furthermore
subdivided as shown in figure 1.
Figure 1: Definitions of adequacy (source: Eurelectric)
Lessons learned:
Belgium structurally depends on imports to meet peak demand;
The loss of flexible generation capacity in the near future will amplify the challenge of integrating the growing share of
renewables in the system;
Market signals such as price spikes, although negatively perceived by the end consumers, have an important impact on
investments to meet short and long-term system reliability.
KU Leuven Energy Institute
1
The focus of this factsheet is on system adequacy in Belgium. The
supply side, generation and network adequacy combined, must
meet the inherent fluctuations in demand, taking into account the
non- storability of electricity and limited dispatchable nature of
wind and solar power generation.
Latest publications on the topic
Rapport over de middelen voor elektriciteits productie 2012-
2017 - FOD Economie
The Federal Energy Observatory made an estimate on the evolution
of both demand and generation capacity in the period 2012-2017 in
Belgium, taking into account different options for the nuclear phase
out. Different scenarios concerning the evolution of demand
and flexible generation are used in both a deterministic and a
probabilistic model.
Conclusions:
Ever y scenario without impor t capacity requires large
investments in new flexible generation capacity;
No scenario with impor t capacity, without new flexible
generation capacity by the year 2017 and the closure
of nuclear generation capacity meets the criterion for
security of the electric power supply;
The Belgian generation portfolio faces challenges concerning
flexibility caused by a combination of non-flexible base load
and the rising share of renewables.
Studie (F)120801-CDC-1167 : Studie van de bevoorradingszekerheid
van aardgas en elektriciteit bij de laagste temperaturen sinds de
vrijmaking van de markten (februari 2012)
The CREG study used data collected during the cold spell of Feb-
ruary 2012 to look whether Belgium would be able to guaran-
tee supply of electricity if the temperatures were more extreme
(-11C) when having normal economic activity.
Conclusions:
Under extreme temperatures and normal economic activity
security would not have been guaranteed from 7 until 10
February.
Under extreme temperatures Belgium depends on generation
from pumped-hydro1;
1
Which is not really generation but storage and also needed for grid
services.
EI Fact sheet Security of Electric Power Supply
EI-FACT SHEET 2013 - 02
ENTSO-E, Winter Outlook 2012/2013
ENTSO-E publishes annually the Summer Review and Winter
Outlook Report which assesses the adequacy of the power
system for the next winter period and provides an overview of
the main events occurred during the previous summer.
Conclusions:
Under the defined normal and severe conditions, the European
power system as a whole has adequate generation capacity to
meet demand. Due to the unavailability of approximately 2000
MW nuclear capacity, Belgium will remain structurally dependent
on imports during the entire winter period;
The effect of the nuclear phase out in Germany has an impact
on power system adequacy during the 2012/2013 winter period,
not only at the national, but also at European level. Germany may
require imports during certain weeks of the winter, to maintain
adequacy.
The reflections made above, lead to a structured, threefold analysis of
security of electric power supply including Belgian generation capacity,
peak demand levels and import. The last aspect considers both
available interconnections and generation capacity in neighboring
countries.
Belgian generation capacity
Figure 3 provides a clear view on the available generation
capacity and its expected evolution for the upcoming years.
Next to the quantity of the generation capacity it is necessary
to get acquainted with certain properties of different generation
technologies.
Elia holds 3 different reserves to maintain bal-
ance:
Primary control: frequency stabilization in a time
frame of seconds (+/- 100 MW);
Secondary control: frequency restoration is a time
frame of minutes (+/- 140 MW), fast- response reserves
procured from spinning conventional generators;
Tertiary control: assist secondary reserves inside
time frame of 15 minutes (settlement period), (+/- 400
MW generation side excluding inter-TSO agreements
and interruptible load contracts).
Generation technologies:
The available generation capacity can be divided into base load,
flexible generation and renewable energy as follows:
Base load: coal and nuclear power;2
2
Baseload due to the usual merit order; these plants can participate in
load following if needed. In case of low gas prices (cfr USA), gas-fired
plants may become part of base load.
KU Leuven Energy Institute
2
Flexible generation: gas-fired power plants and hydro with
dam, having load following capabilities or used to respond to
fluctuations in demand or renewable power generation;
Renewable energy: hydro run of river, wind and solar power.
They are characterized by their non-dispatchable nature.
Capacity Evolution:
As shown in figure 3, the first step of the nuclear phase out in
2015 (according to the decision of June 2012) represents a loss
of 866 MW of generation capacity (Doel 1 & 2). Then there is the
announced significant loss of flexible generation capacity of 2200
MW) by the year 2017.The main reason for the closure of several
flexible generation power plants (CCGTs, and coal due to the EU
Large Combustion Plants Directive) is said to be of an economic
nature. The loss of flexible generation capacity in the near future
will amplify the challenge of integrating the growing share of
renewables in the system.
Not all installed generation capacity is available for generation;
the available generation capacity decreases with the reserves
(ancillary services) held by the TSO and the(un)planned outages.
Outages
The available generation capacity is influenced by the planned
and unplanned outages. The planned outages are scheduled
maintenances. For the winter 12-13, the maximum capacity loss
due to planned outages is 430 MW (scource: Elia) and is used as
measure for the analysed period. The loss of generation capacity
due to unplanned capacity is unpredictable. Due to the extended
outage of Doel 3 and Tihange 2, the capacity of unplanned outages
has exceeded 2000 MW in the winter 12-13.
Peak demand levels
The Belgian generation capacity should be operated in order to
satisfy electricity demand levels in real time. A historical data analysis
of the winter 11-12 has incidated that the top 25 demand levels
all occurred in February 2012, being significantly colder than usual.
The highest demand levels occurred during the typical evening peak
between 6 and 8 PM.
Knowing that the highest demand levels occurred during the
typical evening peak between 6 and 8 PM in winter time, the
available generation capacity must be reduced by the total
installed solar power capacity which is then idle. Also, in accordance
with the scenarios of the Federal Energy Observatory and the CREG,
mentioned above, the installed wind power capacity is subtracted
from the available generation capacity, assuming windless moments.
Historical peak demand levels3 have not drastically changed in
the last 6 years (Figure 2). Additionally, there is an unclear linkage
3
These demand levels include active power absorbed by all installations
connected to the transmission network or to the distribution network,
including losses.
EI Fact sheet Security of Electric Power Supply
EI-FACT SHEET 2013 - 02
Figure 2: Historical peak demand levels, ref: ENTSO-E
between the total yearly power consumption and peak demand
levels. Following trends in the total energy usage may also influence
future peak levels:
Energy efficiency may reduce the total electricity consumption;
Economic growth or the economic slowdown are directly
correlated with electricity demand levels;
Further electrification of society like electric mobility or heating
(heat pumps) may also influence future electricity consumption.
Figure 3: Evolution total (firm and non-firm) generation capacity 2012-2017
KU Leuven Energy Institute
3
Interconnection capacity
Belgium is physically connected with the Nederlands and France.
The physical interconnection capacity is limited to 6000 MW
(Belgium-the Nederlands) and 5000 MW (Belgium-France). This
physical capacity is restricted because of safety precautions (N-1
restrictions4). The available commercial capacity (=Net Transfer
Capacity; NTC) offered to the market does not equal the physical
capacity. The physical capacity contains a significant margin for
possible outages (Transmission Reliability Margin of 250 MW) and
loop flows (=difference between the scheduled and actual power
flow). Next to these reducing factors, the commercial capacity
can be reduced due to the capacity of the national grid (internal
congestion).
As a result, the commercial interconnection capacity between the
Nederlands and Belgium is limited to 1701 MW in both directions
(including recent upgrade of 300 MW). The import capacity from
France is limited to 2300 MW, while export capacity is as high as
3400 MW. Difference between import and export capacity is due
to the limited capacity of the national grid in France.
Belgian simultaneous import capacity is limited to 3000 MW
during summer and 3500 MW during winter.To allow the parties to
optimize their import and export strategies, a number of allocation
mechanisms are provided covering different time scales: yearly,
monthly, daily and intra-day.
4
This criterion on system robustness expresses the ability of the power
system to lose a single network element without causing an overload
failure elsewhere.
EI Fact sheet Security of Electric Power Supply
EI-FACT SHEET 2013 - 02
Generation capacity in neighboring coun- puts upward pressure on the electricity price levels
tries in day-ahead, as well as intraday or balancing markets.
When looking to the European Union, ENTSO-E estimates
that the EU as a whole has a surplus generation capacity of 95
GW under normal winter conditions (28 GW under severe
winter conditions). ENTSO-E uses, in its overall European
approach, a minimum level of availability for wind. Belgium has
a relatively large import capacity during winter, but are our
neighboring countries capable of exporting electricity? The
Nederlands have a large amount of surplus generation capacity
during winter, even when facing severe winter conditions.
When facing shortages in Belgium imports from the Nederlands
should be possible.
The situation in France is different.Under normal winter conditions,
France has a comfortable surplus margin. But due to the high
sensitivity of its load to low temperatures (2300 MW/C),
caused by the high share of electric heating, France faces
shortages during severe conditions and must rely on imports.
Combined impact on security
Figure 3 combines all elements that are in play concerning security
of electric energy supply for the period 2012-2013. As previously
referred to, the available generation capacity must be reduced
by the total installed power capacity based on renewable energy.
Combined with the temporary loss of Doel 3 and Tihange 2
(2014 MW) Belgium lacks generation capacity to meet the
highest demand level of 2012, 14191 MW.
Meeting these high demand levels Belgium depends on imports
from neighboring countries. In the near future the dependency
tends to grow, even with the full generation capacity of Doel 3
and Tihange 2 back online.
Impact on the electricity market
Having enough generation capacity in Belgium or in neighboring
countries (taking into account interconnection capacity) is a
conditio sine qua non to securily operate the electrical energy
system. However, market forces in the electricity sector will
also contribute to balance generation and demand levels in
real-time.
Limited available generation capacity, endangering secure
operation of the electricity system, will be refected in the
electricityprice on different markets. This scarcity
KU Leuven Energy Institute
4
Market signals such as price spikes, although negatively
perceived by the end consumers, have an important positive
impact on the short and long-term system
reliability. There is one important condition: European market
prices should be reflected in the end consumer prices. This is
already the case for large consumers but is also needed for the
small consumers. Better metering and more responsive pricing
are key to guarantee sufficient import in the short run and
capacity in the long term.
Peak power plants are not economically viable during most
of the time. With rising electricity prices, more generation
capacity is activated in the short-term. Whereas peaking
price levels increase the supply of electrical energy, demand
levels may be lowered. Typically large industrial consumers have
the opportunity to adjust or delay electricity demand. Also
smart grid developments are expected to contribute to the
responsiveness of consumers to fluctuating electricity prices.
Electricity price spikes also allow generation companies to
recover their investment costs. This ensures that, in the long-
term, new investments in generation capacity are
attracted. Put differently, a cap on the electricity price, limiting
those price spikes, would suppress economic signals and
prevent utilities from investing in additional generation
capacity. Capacity markets are often suggested to remunerate
available power generation capacity and stimulate new build,
but caution is needed not to start yet another subsidy
scheme to balance intermittent generation with zero marginal
cost that was exogenously put into the market by strong
support schemes. More reflection is needed for good
operating reserve markets. A factsheet with special focus on
the links between capacity remuneration of some kind and
reserve markets is forthcoming.
KU LEUVEN ENERGY INSTITUTE
Celestijnenlaan 300 box 2421
B3001 Heverlee
www.kuleuven.be/ei
EI Fact sheet Security of Electric Power Supply