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Welcome to Decision Analysis I. This course guide has been developed to summarize
the course logistics. Please read this handout carefully.
Introduction
Everyone makes decisions, but few people think about how they do it. Psychological
research shows that in many simple decision situations people make decisions that upon
close examination they regard as wrong. Decision analysis is the normative field of
decision-making. Throughout the course, we will develop rules of thought that will
transform complex decisions into simpler decision situations where the course of action is
clear. We will create powerful distinctions that will improve your personal decision-
making and enable you to help others with their own decisions.
Decision analysis is the best way I know how to make decisions. Thats not to say that
thinking about decisions is important, but if you do wish to think about your choices,
decision analysis is the best way I know how to achieve clarity of action. In MS&E 252, I
will profess how to carry on a conversation for achieving clarity of actional thought by
combining precisely defined concepts. Throughout the quarter, I will ask you to
demonstrate your proficiency at conducting a professional conversation about decision-
making building on the concepts present in lectures or in course materials. I guarantee
that MS&E 252 will help you create powerful distinctions to improve your personal
decision-making and to help others with their decisions.
On Axess, enroll in the lecture only. We will not be having different sections this years,
so if you attempt to enroll in a section on Axess, you will get an error.
Lectures
Professor Howard, one of the founders of Decision Analysis and a teacher and
practitioner for over 35 years, will lead the lectures. The lectures have been developed to
demonstrate lessons that have been learned through the practice and teaching of decision
analysis. Professor Howards style features a mix of Socratic dialogue, demonstration,
lecture, and directed inquiry. The lecture demonstrations capture the essence of applying
decision analysis to 'real' problems. Try to appreciate the philosophy and depth behind
what is being taught in the lectures and demonstrations, even if they appear deceptively
simple. Listen carefully to the questions posed and the responses provided by Dr.
Howard. The course is interactive: contribute your enthusiasm and energy and you will
be rewarded many times over. Before asking or answering a question in the lectures,
please say your name. We would like to know you throughout the quarter just like you
know us. The lectures will not always cover computational details, which will be
addressed in problem sessions by the teaching assistants.
Problem Sessions
Day: TBD
Time: TBD
Location: TBD
Attendance to both the class lectures and the problem sessions will be crucial to your
success in the course.
During problem sessions, we will answer any questions you may have about class
lectures and homework assignments, work through quantitative problems that illustrate
concepts covered in the lectures, and help you apply and challenge what you are being
taught.
Office Hours
We will be holding several office hours (including online for SCPD) to answer questions
related to lectures, problem sessions, or homework assignments.
See The Teaching Team section of this Course Guide for the time and location of
office hours.
https://myvideosu.stanford.edu
All lectures and problem sessions will be recorded by SCPD and made available online.
Please note that the teaching team is not involved with the management of this system;
any technical question or comments about the online videos should be sent to SCPD.
Class Website
https://canvas.stanford.edu
The website will be the primary method for the teaching team to distribute course
material and messages.
SCPD students will need to get a SUNET ID from their SCPD coordinator to access
online course materials.
While we will rely on Canvas for most of the logistics, we will be using Piazza forum for
questions. Please register yourself with our Piazza website by searching MS&E252 on
Piazza.
We will be using presentation slides for most of the problem sessions. As often as
possible, problem session slides will be posted on the class website prior to the problem
session.
Required Texts
Ronald A. Howard and Ali E. Abbas, Foundations of Decision Analysis. 1st Edition.
Prentice Hall, 2015. This book will also be used in MS&E 352.
Optional Text
Projection Notes, Ronald A. Howard. These notes will also be used in MS&E 352.
Professor Howard may refer to material from the Projection Notes during lecture as
supplementary to his slides.
Availability of Texts
All texts listed above should be available at the Stanford Bookstore. SCPD students
should order directly from the bookstore.
Several copies of all texts listed above are available on reserve at the Engineering
Library.
The teaching assistants on this years teaching team are all PhD students/candidates in
MS&Es Decision Analysis and Risk Analysis program.
Homework Assignments
There will be weekly homework assignments provided on Canvas each Friday and due
the following Thursday 11:59pm. You are allowed to work in groups if you choose,
however you must submit your own work and credit each person with whom you
collaborated as part of your submission.
1) Reading assignments.
2) Definitions.
3) Probabilistic questions.
4) Quantitative problems.
5) Food for thought.
You are to submit your answers to the probabilistic questions on the homework
submission site:
https://mse252.stanford.edu/
Unless otherwise mentioned, you will not need to turn in your solutions for any of the
other parts of the assignment. Solutions to the full HW assignment will be distributed
one week after the assignment is handed out.
In this course, we require every student to be in a 4-person study group. Please start to
form study groups as early as the first day of class. We will randomly group students
without a study group before the drop deadline of the course.
Towards the end of the quarter, we will provide a case study so you can apply many of
the concepts you learnt throughout the class in a complex decision setting. The 4 study
group members will work on the case study together.
There will be two exams during the quarter: a midterm and a final. The exams will be
closed book and closed notes. The midterm format will be the same as the probabilistic
format of the homework assignments. The final will contain both probabilistic and
analytical sections.
Professor Howard believes that the commitment to provide course grades interferes
with his ability to provide learning experiences and exercises, so he delegates the
course grading to the teaching team.
Homework 25%
Case Study 15%
Midterm 20% Tuesday, November 8th, in class
Final 40% Wednesday, December 14th, 12:15 p.m. - 3:15 p.m.
Participation will be taken into account for students make pertinent comments in class,
problem session, and/or on the Piazza Forum.
SCPD Students
SCPD students who are local are welcome to attend the lectures and problem sessions in
person. If you are not local, we encourage you to use the Coursework Discussion to find
other remote students with whom to collaborate on homework assignments. We also
encourage you to be especially active on the Piazza Forum with your questions about
concepts and assignments. This tool affords you access to TA help throughout the week.
Honor Code
All students and members of the teaching team are expected to follow Stanford
University's Honor Code. If you are not familiar with the Honor Code, please refer to
The Stanford University Bulletin.
Students may discuss and work on homework problems in groups but must assign
probabilities to all possible answers on their own.
Additionally, we expect students not to copy, refer to, or look at homework or exam
material from previous years, unless it is provided by the teaching team. We consider it
an honor code violation to do so.