Carroll County, 2047

Jay Herson, Ph.D.

Futurist
October, 2017

1
 Role of Futurism
Strategic Foresight
Analysis of trends
What direction are we going
Planning for a desirable future
Changing course when necessary
It is NOT prediction
It is NOT regional planning

2
Foresight Process

3
Back to Future1955 to 1985

4
BTF II1985 to 2015

5
Blade Runner1982-2019
Singularity

6
Blade Runner 2049

7
8
 1950s Sci Fi--2050
Father
Mother
Marriage
Two Bio Children

9
Restrooms

10
David Sarnoff, RCA, 1946

11
Moores Law

12
Does Everything Change?
1987 Toyota Camry

13
 Similarly
1987 Morning commute on Metro
Sports -- 1987 World Series
Minnesota vs St. Louis

14
 Outline
Trends
Drivers
Opportunities
Wild Cards
Scenarios for 2047
Center Street, Sat. Oct 26, 2047

15
 Trends
Social / Demographic
Health
Technology / Science
Environment / Public Safety
Education and Learning
Economics / Business
Politics / Government

16
 Mega Trends
Irrelevance of Federal government
Changes in nature of employment
Climate change
Urbanization
Demographic changes
Surveillance / Big Data
Automation

17
 Federal Government
All government is local
Federal governmentall three branches have
failed to perform as the founding fathers
planned.
State boundaries outdated
Some states / counties threaten secession
How local must we get for people to accept
compromise?

18
 Local Government
There will always be federal block grants
Social services, reproductive and general health
care, local transportation will be up to the states.
Corporate - local partnerships in roads, bridges
and transportation, privatization
Light rail service between Hunt Valley
Westminster: Hunt Valley and Gettysburg must
take the lead
Tracks needed for autonomous vehicles

19
 Local Government
Lots of pressure on state and local
government
Citizen legislators
Autonomous vehicles and roads
Interstate collaboration

20
 Blockchain
Personal Ledger
Secure and trusted transactions
Bitcoins
Contracts
Food tracking, drug tracking
Health and education records
Community collegeblockchain
management
21
 Gig Economy
Instead of full time employment with
benefits people will work on gigs, short
term contract employment

22
 Learning / Co-Working Center
Facility where students and adults come
together to learn or work.
School building, converted factory, retail
space
Can be commercially owned

23
 Education and Learning
Education
K-12
Post-secondary
Learning
A lifetime task
Riding a bicycle
New occupational skills

24
 EducationK-12
Progressive school systems
Teaching by computer lessons
Teaching by non-teachers
Coaches in learning centers
Group rather than individual achievement
Critical thinking, collaboration, compromise
End of rote memorizationCapital of Kansas?
Student recordsblockchain
Community collegeEd coach training
25
Capital of Kansas?

26
Capital of Kansas

27
 Learning Centers

Existing schools
Unused factory / retail space
Home schoolingseveral children in a
neighborhood
Libraries / co-working centers
Community collegespace and learning
center management

28
 Learning Centers
K-12
Adults learning new skills, especially under
the gig economy
Occupation training, pay for results
Guest coaches from science, law, etc.
All learning records in blockchain
At co-working center, library
Will include day care
29
 Private Schools
Will take hold in less progressive school
systems
Going corporate and national like Marriott,
Hilton, McDonalds
Will include some charter schools and
learning centers
Real estate opportunities here.

30
Post-secondary

31
 Post-secondary (contd)
Post-millennials are concerned about cost of 4 yr
college, student debt
What is the value?
Gig economy not consistent with 4 yr college
Growth in community colleges
A la carte educationtake courses for a
particular skill in demand e.g. IT, robotics
Training in learning centers and on the job

32
 Post-secondary
Females interested in broader education and the
social opportunities in 4 yr colleges
Asian students prefer 4 yr college and grad
school but mostly in STEM
50% of post-secondary education in traditional
college by 2047

33
Employment

34
 Employment
Gig economy, 60%-70% of employment
People employed on contract
Hollywood model
Matched up by Internet on a global basis
Work from home or co-working center
Library or former factory space as co-
working center

35
 Gig Employment
Retirement party for gig workers
Temp placement firms to the rescue?
Community collegegig employment
management

36
 Help Wanted -- Male
Men disappearing from the workforce, not being
educated for the professions / STEM as before.
Autonomous vehicles will reduce a major
employment option for men.

37
 Creative Employment
Etsy handmade items via Internet
Lushhandmade soap via Internet and
retail
Co-working centers for handicraft workers
Community collegecreative arts and
creative business management

38
 Co-working Centers
Closely related to learning center
People who would prefer to work among others
rather than at home
Resourceshardware, software, day care
Yoga, pilates, food court
Unused factory space and outdated arenas are
being converted to co-working centers
Privately owned

39
 Co-Working Centers
Co-working centers could create an
atmosphere for Random House to pool
freelance editors here
Opportunity for Carroll real estate
Community collegelearning center, co-
working center management

40
Uline, Washington DC

41
 Employment (contd)
Universal basic income (UBI)
People will gain training in different types
of jobs
Automated training for new skills at
learning centers like libraries, co-working
centers, community college
People can live in Carroll Co. regardless of
where the employer is located

42
 Automation

50% of jobs in 2017 will not exist in 2047

Autonomous vehicles at your door
USPS automated with kiosks in Walmart,
Safeway, Hilton Hotel
Delivery of mail and packages by all
carriers through autonomous vehicles.
Delivery to a community drone port or
directly to each residence.
43
 Automation (contd)
Fast foodautomated ordering and
delivery but many food items through 3D
printing.
Distribution centers will be manufacturing
centers through 3D printing
Random House print on demand
Shopping centers3D printing of clothing

44
 Automation / Affordable Housing
3D printing of houses can make housing more
affordable
Universal basic income factor in affordable
housing
Affordable housing through co-housing

45
 3D Printing Opportunities
Community collegetraining in 3D printing
management and marketing
Libraries as service centers rather than 3D
demonstrations
4D printingmanufactured object changes
size and shape over timecardiac stents

46
 Automation (contd)
Supermarketorder online, delivery by
autonomous vehicle.
In-person for inspection of fruit, meat but
point and click and expect automated
delivery a few hours later.

47
 Automation in Agriculture
Inside a tractor will look like the cockpit of
a Boeing jet.
Automated chemistry for every sq inch of
soil, info from satellites, databases, etc.
Dean of UMD Ag School will be an IT
person who never worked in a field

48
 Agriculture Concerns
GMO
Corporate farming
Reduced employment due to automation
Agriterrorism

49
 Opportunity in Agriculture
UMD might want to do Ag robotics IT research in
College Park
Field station in Carroll Co. perhaps as a joint
venture with Caterpillar, John Deere
Startup companies
Community collegeget involved with training
for Ag robotics, anti-agriterrorism
Pittsburgh: steel artificial intelligence

50
 AgricultureSynthetic Biology
Engineered transgenic seeds to produce
desirable characteristics in crops, reducing
need for pesticides
Crops can produce biofuels, chemicals,
lubricants, etc.
Similar opportunities with Univ of Maryland
and industry

51
 Opportunities
Autonomous busses can be scheduled for
Baltimore symphony, art museums, Hippodrome
Demand will be known by Big Data
Lots of IT people will be needed in Carroll
County in coming years. This can bring more
middle class educated people to the county.
Community collegeautomation management
training

52
 Opportunities
State-of-the-art IT / robotics / artificial
intelligence people are being moved from a
companys remote location to the corporate
office. ExMacDonalds, Caterpillar, Marriott
Could Carroll Co. attract back office
programmers from Under Armour, T Roe Price,
Marriott etc to work in converted space in
abandoned factories or new space?

53
 Artificial Intelligence
As AI systems become capable of learning
themselves they could replace many
knowledge workers.
Robotic systems will be able to repair and
modify themselves
After 2030 the definition of unemployment
will have to change.

54
 Singularity
Robotic awareness of self
Line between humans and robots becomes
thinner
Cars are our feet
Calculators are our minds
GPS is our sense of place
Google is our memory
Problem in late 21st Century

55
 Entertainment
Rich vs. poor gap increases
Less demand for public entertainment spaces
Mobile deviceseasier to attract advertisers.
Short runlive performances at a local public
spaceopera, National Theatre,
Outdoor movies in summertime
Arenaneed sponsorship of a Carroll company
that either employs or sells to a large number of
Carroll residents, also zoning changes

56
 Entertainment (contd)
Fewer movies made with actors
Computer animated movies
Animated characters in the news
Animated singers
Computer-generated songs
Global competition
Virtual reality
Stream entertainment from the human era

57
 Internet of Things
Virtually everything is connected to the
Internet and can communicate with one
another
Items in home can be addressed from
different locations and through Alexa
Community collegedigital home
appliance management

58
 Surveillance
Everywhere
By drones
Security
Aim advertising
Mobile devices
Gas pump
Airplane
Hotel room TV

59
 Surveillance (contd)
Walk thru screening at airports
No more toll boothstransponders on cars
record entries, automated Bitcoin payment
Community CollegeSurveillance management

60
Health Care

61
Primary Care

62
 Dentistry
Dentistry becoming scalable
Dental grads dont want or cant buy a
practice
Dental therapist occupation
Companies buying up individual practices
Real estate opportunitiesmedicine and
dentistry

63
 Health Care
Insurance will be all up to Maryland
Statewide single payer health care for those who
want it (MarylandCare for All)
Supplements via private insurance
Health records on blockchain mean people can
take their records from provider-to-provider.

64
 Health Technology
Robotics
Wearable technologies
Surveillance in the home through the Internet of
Things
Nanoparticles in drugs
Precision medicine
Neurosciencefor medical use and for
marketing

65
 Health Technology (contd)
Drug-resistant pathogens
CRISPRgene editing, congenital diseases
Designer childrenparents can go to other
countries for gene editing of fetus
Community collegewearable technology
management

66
 Health Behavior
Drug addictionmore potent drugs
Lots of money to be made
Obesitynot much change
Health education programs at co-learning
center, pay for results

67
 Retirees
Aging population
Gig economy does not yield retirement incomes
Universal basic income will replace Social
Security and may increase for seniors
State programs for assisted living, nursing
homes
Village Movementneighbors helping neighbors
age in place

68
 Health Providers
More women as physicians and in
leadership
More Asian-American and Indian-
American in all health provider categories
Health aidesmore American due to gig
economy and immigration uncertainty

69
 Health Care--Opportunities
Community Collegetraining
Real estatefacilities and housing
Demographicyounger families to Carroll
Employmentmany health care jobs defy
automation

70
 Traditional Employment--2047
Automation support, management, sales
Agriculture
Health care
Learning / co-working centers
Real estate
Tourismmuseums, parks

71
 Employment, 2047
Constructionroads, redesign of factory space,
housing
Gas stations - electric fueling stations
Police, FireIT oriented
Reduced employment levels due to automation

72
 Environment / Public Safety
Climate change, global warming
Rising sea levelsBaltimore and Annapolis
Residents and businesses close to water will
have to move.
Opportunity for Carroll County
Agricultureperhaps can grow crops not
possible before but what crops will be lost or
reduced in value?
Manufacturingmore expensive

73
 Public Safety
Drone surveillance and blockchain transactions
should reduce certain kinds of crime.
Real time video coverage of break-in sent to
homeowner and police
Faster identification and arrests
RFID tracking for children, pets
Easy to track people in autonomous vehicles
Fewer accidents with autonomous vehicles
Criminal use of drones and robots
74
 Public Safety (contd)
Fewer volunteer fire fighters at risk due to robots
Drug tradeBitcoin payments can probably be
tracked with warrant but cash will still be used
for some transactions like these.
Gunssurveillance can give warning e.g. a
person carrying a weapon near a school
entrance

75
 State and Local Taxes
Changes in employment can reduce the
tax base
New technologies will be expensive and
have short half lives
How do we tax employers of gig
workers? Located in another state or
country
Tax automation in all forms

76
 Social/Demographic
Who are the people making decisions for
Carroll County?
Local government
State government
Voters

77
 Politically Correct
1957Miss, Mrs

2017--- Ms.

78
 Politically Correct--2017
He had one child from his first marriage
..One child from a relationship
.....No children from his current marriage

79
 Same Person Described 2047
He had one child from his first relationship
---one child from his second relationship
---no children from his current relationship
Distinction between marriage and
relationships not important and nobodys
business
Partner to replace husband/wife/spouse

80
 Co-parenting
Two individuals decide to raise a child
from birth
No romantic relationship
Dont live together
Same sex, transgender
Child, usually adoption

81
 What if.....
Co-parents..
Marry other people, have children
Have other co-parenting relationships
One parent moves to another city

82
 Who are
The grandparents
The siblings
The aunts, uncles, cousins
Effect on development, schooling

83
 Virtual Families
Families define as bond between close
friends not necessarily related.
Act as a 20th century family

84
Marriage of More Than Two People

85
Post Millennials (born around 2000)
Urban, 47-57 years old in 2047
Raised in a world less centered in America
Digital natives
Raised with helicopter parents
Single parent, step-parent household
Two or three adult relationships
College debt
Post secondary education varies
Risk averse
86
 Post-Millenials (contd)
Periods of unemployment / underemployment
due to gig economy
Use tech to communicate not for news
Distrustful of democracy
Exposed to fake news
Not concerned with privacy, surveillance
Non-linear, less predictable life story
DNA originless Europe, more Latin America
and Asia
87
 Post Millennial Leaders- 2047
Interest in public servicesuniversal basic
income, health care
Preoccupied with their own and family insecurity
Less concerned about people owning homes
Post secondary educationpossibly narrow
Government by trial and error, intuition
Reliance on expert panels, other governments

88
 Post-Millennial Leaders
Women, foreign born, non-Maryland born,
hyphenated Americans in visible government
positions
Support for technology

89
 Leadership Requirements
Lead state and local residents into changes in
employment
Deal with climate change
Think globally
Take advantage of the opportunities that 2047
will bring
Adapt, especially for zoning changes
Preservation of agriculture, agricultural research

90
High Impact Wild Cards

91
 Wild Cards Examples
Agriterrorism I
Surge in co-parenting--I
Severe weather II IV
Global pandemic virusIII
North Korea bombs USIII
Russian interference in election III-IV
Systemic financial collapseIV

92
 Scenarios--2047
Stormy weather
Cloudy, occasional light rain
Periods of sunshine
Sunny and clear

93
 1. Stormy Weather, 2047
Community college does not update curriculum
Learning centers not progressive
Affordable housing not achieved
Rezoning attempts fail
Gig economy more unemployment than
expected
UBI not sufficient
Agricultural robotics research done elsewhere
Manufacturing follows IT talent
94
 2. Occasional Light Rain, 2047
Some rezoning
Some high tech manufacturing
Still not ag robotics research
Co-working centers host some gig workers and
adult learning, but some fail
Limited affordable housing, not conveniently
located
Community college adds only a surveillance
repair course
UBI some help, but not enough
95
 3. Periods of Sunshine, 2047
Rezoning beginning to take hold yielding
affordable housing, more co-working centers,
Community college expands curriculum
UBI requirements better understood
Univ of Maryland agrees to do some ag robotics
research in county
More active gig workers than expected
Rezoning also permits more co-working and
adult learning centers

96
 4. Sunny and Clear, 2047
Community college becomes 4 yr
Rezoning is welcome, affordable housing, health
clinics
Ag robotics research attracts private industry
Distribution centers become high tech mfg
Younger population, enthusiastic and successful
gig workers
UBI helping people of all ages

97
 Lets Vote
Stormy weather
Cloudy, occasional light rain
Periods of sunshine
Sunny and clear

98
 Sat. Oct. 26, 2047
Walking along Center Street
Carroll County Times has an article about what
some crazy futurist predicted 30 years ago.
Surveillance everywhere
Many people know you are walking there
Drones buzzing overhead
All your clothing made in USA by robotics, 3D
printing

99
 Sat. Oct. 26, 2047
Autonomous cars on the road
Some hybrid cars still exist on farmland
Most commercial buildings of today still
standing but repurposed

100
 Sat. Oct. 26, 2047
Rural county with municipalities of higher density
Todays unincorporated areas will be
incorporated by 2047 and some new fledgling
municipalities.
Commute to work in Baltimore, Frederick,
Rockville effortless thanks to autonomous
vehicles but more employment in Carroll County
Eveningautonomous bus to Baltimore for a
concert

101
 Sat. Oct 26, 2047
Brazilian-American governor is issuing bonds to
pay for renovation of Baltimore Inner Harbor
First Asian-American president attends a World
Series game in Baltimore
Many people training for and seeking their next
gig
Another autonomous bus is leaving for
Broadway......

102
On BroadwayTaylor Swift

103
 Most important,
Residents of Carroll County are grateful
for the path paved for them by the people
of 2017.

104
Questions and Discussion

105