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This paper touches upon issues of demographic transition, labor market development, and
challenges facing China when it approaches the Lewis turning point. This paper tries to
combine Lewisian theory of development of dual economy and its revised version and theory
The paper finds that the Chinese experiences of economic growth and reform, in general, and
labor market development, in particular, during the period, are consistent with major
pathways coined by the dual economy theory (Lewis, 1954, 1972, 1979; Ranis and Fei, 1961)
and expected results by demographic transition theory (Caldwell, 1976), and it has indeed
gained demographic dividend by reallocating laborers, which were surplus labor force in
agriculture and overstaffing in state-owned sector during the pre-reform period (Williamson,
When the demographic transition leads to diminishing growth of working age population (Hu,
2010; UN, 2009), scholars and policy makers become puzzled while observing the Chinese
labor market (Rawski, 2001; Cai, 2004; Zhang, 2008). This paper tries to solve those puzzles
about labor market dilemmas by deepening the study beyond the issues of whether or not
Lewis turning point arrives. And it concludes with some policy suggestions.
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1. Introduction
This section reviews the unique demographic transition of China, which has been gone
through in much shorter time than developed nations and newly industrialized economies,
illustrate its implications to labor market – namely, the changed nature of labor supply, and
unveils the puzzles about the Chinese labor market, which prevent scholars and policy makers
This section first depicts the fast process of demographic transition due to the unprecedented
economic growth, social development, and strict population policy. It then explains the
changes in population age structure, as a result of dramatic decline of fertility. That is,
working age population has grown in diminishing pace and is predicted to shrink after 2015.
Such changes are not only incarnated in population aging but also reflected in slower growth
of labor force, which has been altering the property of dual economy – unlimited supply of
labor.
Given that the economic growth has been fast and will sustain a similar speed, the demand for
labor will be strong, which inevitably causes the fundamental change in relationship between
supply of and demand for labor. As a result, the Chinese economy will grow under a condition
of tight labor market other than a condition of unlimited supply of labor. This paper suggests
an incoming Lewis turning point as convinced by the facts from changes in demographics and
labor market.
This section reviews the process of labor market development during the economic transition.
It argues that the employment policy reform and, more generally, the labor market
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development in China is not like what some observers claimed of lagging behind the progress
of reforms in other areas. In contrast, the mass labor migration from rural to urban areas has
been the largest movement in human history of peace time. In 2009, there were totally 145
million migrant workers originated from rural areas and worked in cities, which account for
Equally impressive is the dramatic transformation of urban employment system. Since the late
1990s, when the urban workers were hit by East Asian financial crisis and macroeconomic
slowdown and experienced massive lay off, the overstaffed former SOE employees have been
relocated to non-publicly owned sectors and even to informal sectors. Although there appears
informality in labor market and some workers left less protected socially, the transition from
planning system to market mechanism in allocating labor resources have been by and large
accomplished.
As the result of foregoing labor market development in rural and urban China, through both
quantity adjustment and price adjustment, rural surplus labor force has been shifted from low
redundant workers have been reassigned to diversified jobs. Such reforms have gained
While the labor market development has dramatically altered the pattern of supply of and
demand for labor by expanding employment and improving quality of labor force, there
emerged a host of intricate phenomena on labor market, which puzzle scholars and policy
makers.
Those puzzles include the coexistence of labor shortage and employment difficulty, in general,
and the coexistence of the easiness for migrant workers’ employment and hardness for
university graduates’ employment, and of the trend of tight labor market and difficulties
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facing vulnerable groups of labor market participants, in particular. Confronted with such a
conflicting labor market manifestation, the government addresses it at loose ends and scholars
This paper reveals regrouping of various labor market participants, of which three groups –
namely, migrant workers, new entrants with university degree, and urban workers with special
difficulties in finding a job, catch the attention of the Chinese government. Given their each
nature, while migrant workers may become major takers of cyclical unemployment and
graduates and urban vulnerable workers are more likely to suffer natural unemployment and
The changed natures of the Chinese labor market require three-dimensional policy adjustment.
First, after the Lewis turning point arrives, labor market becomes of a more neoclassical type;
therefore, further liberalization is required, including free mobility of labor across regions,
sectors and enterprises. Second, labor market institutions should play bigger role in
determining wages, regulating labor relations, etc. Third, social protection needs to be
strengthened and to extend its coverage to all labor groups. All those policy adjustments call
Reference:
Cai, Fang (2004) The Consistency of China's Statistics on Employment: Stylized Facts and
Implications for Public Policies, The Chinese Economy, Vol. 37, No. 5 (September-October),
pp. 74 – 89.
Cai, Fang and Dewen Wang (2005) China’s Demographic Transition: Implications for Growth,
in Garnaut and Song (eds) The China Boom and Its Discontents, Canberra: Asia Pacific Press.
Cai, Fang and Meiyan Wang (2010), Growth and Structural Changes in Employment in
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Transition China, Journal of Comparative Economics, vol. 38, pp. 71-81.
Hu, Ying (2009) Predictions on Working Age Population of Rural and Urban China,
unpublished memo.
Lewis, Arthur (1954), Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor, The
Ranis, Gustav and Fei, John C. H. (1961) A Theory of Economic Development, The American
Rawski, Thomas G. (2001), “What's Happening to China's GDP Statistics?” China Economic
United Nations (2009) The World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision,
http://esa.un.org/unpp/.
Williamson, Jeffrey (1997), “Growth, Distribution and Demography: Some Lessons from
Zhang, Xiaojian (ed) (2008) The Reform and Development of the Chinese Employment,