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Identify trend:
1. a time series plot that is trending up, down, or in a deterministic fashion
2. a highly significant ACF, PACF, and IACF at lag 1
3. an ACF with many significant lags decaying slowly from lag 1
4. an ACF with few significant values after first differencing is applied
5. unit root tests that are not significant but become significant when a first difference is
applied
Identify seasonality:
1. a time series plot that has repetitive behavior every S time units
2. significant ACF, PACF, and IACF values at lag S
3. an ACF with significant values at lags that are multiples of S
4. an ACF without a significant value at lag S after a difference of order S has been applied
5. seasonal unit root tests that are not significant but become significant when a difference of
order S is applied
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Step 3: Intervention & Regressors:
Regressors: Based on the domain knowledge
Intervention: Identify abnormalities (dips or spikes) in data
1. Whether the model passes all the tests (white noise test, unit root test, seasonal root test)
2. Whether the model has acceptable error (e.g. RMSE)
3. Whether the parameters are significant
4. Whether the model is too complex
5. Whether the forecast is reasonable