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University of Nebraska - Lincoln

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Industrial and Management Systems Engineering --
Industrial and Management Systems Engineering
Presentations

1-1-2003

Discrete-Event Simulation: Simulation Practices


and Trends
Paul Savory
University of Nebraska at Lincoln, psavory2@gmail.com

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Savory, Paul, "Discrete-Event Simulation: Simulation Practices and Trends" (2003). Industrial and Management Systems Engineering --
Presentations. Paper 2.
http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/imsepresentations/2

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Simulation Practices and Trends

Paul A. Savory, Ph.D.

Industrial and Management


Systems Engineering
University of Nebraska - Lincoln

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What is a Model?

A model is a simplified representation


of a system (or process or theory)
intended to enhance ones ability to
understand, predict, and possibly
control the behavior of the system

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Why Develop a Model?

an aid to experimentation
a tool of prediction
an aid to thought
an aid to communication
an aid to training and instruction

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How the Model is Used

FORMULATION
REAL
SYSTEM MODEL

DEDUCTION

REAL INTERPRETATION MODEL


CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS

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Problem Solving Approaches

Computer OR Expert Artificial


Applications Models Databases Systems Intelligence

CERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY
The spectrum goes from physical models or prototypes which are expensive
and time consuming to build and need exact conditions to model the real system
and proceeds to completely abstract mathematical models

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Factors Affecting the
Development of a Model
SYSTEM

Purpose Level of Boundaries


Detail
Performance
Measures Design
Alternative
CONCEPTUAL
MODEL

Assessment

IMPLEMENTATION

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What is a Computer Simulation?

Process of developing a
mathematical-logical
model of a system and
experimenting with that
model on a computer

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Why Use Simulation?
The real system does not exist and it is too costly, time-
consuming, hazardous, or impossible to build

The real system exists but experimentation


is expensive, hazardous, or seriously disruptive

The real system exists but experimentation


may destroy it

Mathematical modeling of the system has no practical or


numeric solutions

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A Job Shop Example

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Analysis of a Job Shop
Factors affecting our analysis
set-up times; unique production sequence of
each part; machine breakdowns; limited
waiting space

What types of performance measures would


you like to obtain?
work-in-progress; production time;
machine/worker utilization

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A Heuristic Model
One approach to studying this system is to an analytical
technique which seeks to get some unique and/or optimal
solution

Due to this complexity, possibly we can build a heuristic


model
construct a model of the system
observe the behavior of the performance variables over time
based on the observations, hypothesize how the real system
is behaving
These three tasks describe what simulation performs!

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Simulation Disadvantages
Simulation models are expensive and time
consuming to develop

Simulation models give estimates of


performance characteristics and offer few
procedures for optimization

Simulation models produce large quantities of


output. This does not mean the model is
correct!

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The Simulation Process
Step 1: Problem Definition
Develop the preliminary model

Step 2: Project Planning


Decide on personnel, management support,
computer hardware, and budget for the study

Step 3: System Definition


Identify the small subset of characteristics or
features of the system to include

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Organizational Activities and
Simulation
PRODUCTION ACTIVITY
40
1. RESEA RCH
2. PROJ ECT
30 3. M A SS PRODUCTION
4. BA TCH PRODUCTION
5. J OB SHOP
20 6. CONTINUOUS FLOW LINE
7. OTHER
10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Production Type

One third of practitioners perform simulation research

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Organizational Activities and
Simulation
USE OF SIMULATION - PURPOSE
30
1. DESIGN
2. RESEA RCH
3. PLA NNING
4. SCHEDULING
20
5. A SSIGNM ENTSA ND A LLOCA TIONS
6. OTHER

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6

Simulation is highly used for design, research, and planning


Industry uses simulation most for design and planning

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Project Contributors
SIMULATION TEAM MEMBERS
30
1. SY STEM A NA LY ST
2. SIM ULA TION DEV ELOPER
3. CONSULTA NT
4. SHOP FLOOR SUPERV ISOR
20
5. M A NA GER
6. OTHER

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6

Simulation developers and systems analysts usually


lead the analysis team

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The Simulation Process
Step 4: Conceptual Model Formulation
Develop the preliminary model

Step 5: Preliminary Experimental Design


What output do you want?

Step 6: Input Data Preparation


Collect data and fit probability distributions to it

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The Simulation Process
Step 7: Validation
Does the model describe
the real system?

Step 8: Model Translation


Formulate the model in an appropriate language

Step 9: Verification
Does the computer simulation model execute as
intended?

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Hardware Configuration
COMPUTER HARDWARE
50

1. PERSONA L COM PUTERS


40 2. W ORKSTA TIONS
3. M A INFRA M ES
30 4. M INI-COM PUTERS

20

10

0
1 2 3 4

PCs and workstations are widely used simulation platforms


Mainframes are least preferred by industry

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Simulation Software
GENERAL LANGUAGE
30
1. C
2. FORTRA N
3. PA SCA L
20 4. BA SIC
5. LISP
6. OTHER
7. NONE
10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

C and FORTRAN are widely used, PASCAL is not used in industry

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Simulation Software
SIMULATION LANGUAGES
30
1. SLA M
2. SIM A N
3. GPSS
20 4. SIM SCRIPT
5. OTHER
6. NONE

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6

SLAM and SIMAN are equally popular


Industry prefers SIMAN to SLAM, Universities prefer SLAM to SIMAN

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A Banking System

Customers arrive Service time is


according to an between 2 and 5
exponential distribution minutes
with a mean of 2 minutes

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SIMAN Simulation Model
CREATE: EXPON(2):MARK(ArrivalTime)
QUEUE, WaitTellerQ;
SEIZE: Teller;
DELAY: UNIFORM(2,5);
RELEASE: Teller;
TALLY: TimeInSystem, INT(ArrivalTime);
DISPOSE;

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The Simulation Process
Step 10: Pilot Runs
Collect a small quantity
of output

Step 11: Validation


Does the simulation model approximate what
would be expected?

Step 12: Final Experimental Design


Design an experiment to yield the desired output

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The Simulation Process
Step 13: Make Production Runs

Step 14: Output Data Analysis


Compute averages, standard
deviations, and confidence
intervals on performance variables

Step 15: Documentation, Presentation, and


Implementation

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Project Effort Allocation

TIME FOR EACH PHASE


20 1. M ODEL FORM ULA TION
2. M ODEL BUILDING
3. DA TA A CQUISITION
15 4. M ODEL TRA NSLA TION
5. V ERIFICA TION
10 6. V A LIDA TION
7. STRA TEGIC A ND
TA CTICA L PLA NNING
5 8 . EX PERIM ENTA TION
9 . A NA LYSIS OF RESULTS
0 1 0 . IM PLEM ENTA TION A ND
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 DOCUM ENTA TION
Simulation Phase

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Available Computer Assistance

COMPUTER EFFORT FOR EACH PHASE


1. M ODEL FORM ULA TION
100
2. M ODEL BUILDING
80
3. DA TA A CQUISITION
4. M ODEL TRA NSLA TION
60 5. V ERIFICA TION
6. V A LIDA TION
40 7. STRA TEGIC A ND
TA CTICA L PLA NNING
20 8 . EX PERIM ENTA TION
9 . A NA LYSIS OF RESULTS
0 1 0 . IM PLEM ENTA TION A ND
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Simulation Phase DOCUM ENTA TION

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What You Should Remember

Simulation only provides an


estimate of the true
performance characteristic, not
the characteristic itself

Simulation DOES NOT give an


exact answer!

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