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BAGHDAD After more than 25 years of autonomy from the government in

Baghdad, Iraqs Kurdish region reached a watershed on Monday when it


voted on independence. The final results are still being tabulated, but
according to the Kurdish authorities, more than 90 percent of people voted
for secession in the nonbinding referendum.

Kurds are celebrating the result, which they see as an overdue reckoning and
potentially a step toward their longstanding dreams of statehood, but few
other parties are pleased. The question now is what will come next. Domestic
and foreign opposition to the referendum threaten to escalate tensions, and
pressure is mounting on the federal government in Baghdad to find a way to
defuse the situation and prevent the breakup of Iraq.

Massoud Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, has


insisted that the referendum was not about setting the borders for a future
Kurdish state or taking an immediate step toward independence. Instead, he
said, it was a confirmation of the will of Iraqi Kurdish people to form their
own state in the future.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq is already taking a tough line. He has
insisted that the referendum was unconstitutional and made clear that his
government would take measures to prevent the breakup of the country. Its
an important objective. A united Iraq is crucial right now, as the war against
the Islamic State continues. Kurdish secession moves will destabilize Iraq
even further.

Moreover, Mr. Abadi has good reason to be concerned about how the
referendum was held. Voting took place not only in the autonomous Kurdish
region, but also in what are termed the disputed areas areas that are
officially in federal Iraq but have come under the control of the Kurdish
Regional Government and its pesh merga troops. The vote also took place in
Kirkuk, a city whose status is still undecided according to the Iraqi
Constitution. Baghdad rightly looks at this as an attempt by the Kurds to
establish facts on the ground for a land grab for a future Kurdish state.

The Iraqi federal government was hardly alone in opposing the referendum.
The United States may be an ally of the Kurdish government, but Washington
believed the independence vote shouldnt have been held before the Islamic
State is defeated. On Monday, the State Department saidthe United States
was deeply disappointed with the Kurdish government. The United Nations
likewise voiced concerns about the potentially destabilizing effects of the
referendum.

But the most vociferous critics have been Turkey and Iran, both of which have
Kurdish secessionist movements that they fear could be encouraged by the
vote. Turkey has said it may close its border with the Kurdish region, while
Iran prevented flights into and out of the Kurdish region from using its
airspace. Both countries have threatened military action if the Kurdish region
secedes from Iraq, and to make the threat clear, both countries held military
exercises near the border.

Outside intervention isnt the only potential trigger for escalation. Iraqs
Parliament has demanded that Mr. Abadi mobilize troops to secure Kirkuk
and the disputed areas in response to the referendum. While he made clear
that federal forces will not be used against the Kurdish region, he has asked
the military to be prepared to protect Kurdish citizens. Several factions of
the largely Shiite paramilitary groups known as the Popular Mobilization
Forces are seeking to push back Kurdish control. They are now positioned
close to the disputed areas and have vowed to prevent secession and to bring
Kirkuk back under federal control which could easily lead to fighting with
the pesh merga.

Mr. Abadi now has a tough job. He must keep Iraq whole and reassure Turkey
and Iran enough that they do not intervene. At the same time, he should not
punish the millions of Kurdish Iraqis who want to express their aspiration for
self-determination. This is why moving forward, Mr. Abadi and the
government in Baghdad must figure out how to differentiate between the
actions of Kurdish politicians and the generations-long collective emotional
wishes of the Kurdish people.

If Baghdad works with its neighbors it can rebalance the relationship between
the federal government and the Kurdish government and maintain peaceful
control of the situation while leaving citizens in the Kurdish region
unaffected. Control of oil exports through Turkey by the Kurdish government,
long viewed as illegal by Baghdad, can be returned to the Iraqi government,
as Turkey has hinted at. This would essentially freeze the finances of the
regional government and force it to go back to Baghdad for funding.

On Tuesday, the Iraqi cabinet ordered the Kurdish government to return


control of Iraqi borders with Iran and Turkey, and airports by 6 p.m. Friday;
if the Kurds refuse, the federal government says it will shut down Kurdish
airspace. Turkey and Iran both appear eager to enforce that demand and
Iraqi troops are already taking part in maneuvers on the Turkish side of the
border.

These measures will pressure the Kurdish leadership to agree to some of


Baghdads terms, including the withdrawal of Kurdish forces to within official
regional borders and returning to Baghdad oil fields seized starting in 2003.

Such measures would satisfy pressure on the Iraqi federal government from
its Arab and non-Kurdish communities to check Kurdish expansionism and
also help pacify Turkish and Iranian worries about instability. But they will
not answer the longer-term questions about Iraqi Kurdish aspirations for
independence or the fate of Kirkuk.
These questions will need to be answered through tough negotiations
between Baghdad and the Kurdish government and the solutions carried out
in a way that has a legal basis in Iraqs Constitution. Before then, the
partnership between Baghdad and Erbil, backed by the international
coalition, which has led to the near complete defeat of the Islamic State in
Iraq, should continue to be the focus for both sides.

Other countries, in particular the United States, can also play a positive role.
By supporting Baghdads efforts to prevent conflict and by encouraging the
Kurdish government to be more flexible in its dealing with the federal
government, the United States and others can bring the two sides together.
This would avoid giving too great a role for Turkey and Iran, who are more
concerned about their own interests than Iraqs future. This may be the only
way to reach a peaceful resolution to a tense situation in a region that is not
short on violence.

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