Proceedings of the 19th IAHR-APD Congress 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam

ISBN xxx-xxxx-xx-x

PREDICTION OF SALT INTRUSION DUE TO SEA LEVEL RISE: THE RED RIVER DELTA CASE

DUC HOANG NGUYEN(1), ( 2), THAC KHAC TRAN(1) & KEISUKE NAKAYAMA(2)
(1) Water Resources University, Hanoi, Vietnam. E-mail: ducnh@wru.edu.vn
(2) Kitami Institute of Technology, Hokkaido, Japan

ABSTRACT
In this study, implications of sea level rise for the increasing of salinity were examined for four estuaries in the Red River
Delta (RRD) in North Vietnam using a theoretical salt intrusion model, based on salinity data measured in the dry seasons
of 2006 and 2008. The model involves two calibration coefficients that can be determined on the basis of an extensive
salinity intrusion survey. It also contains some semi-empirical formulas that allow the prediction of the salt intrusion for a
wide range of estuaries. By establishing an empirical relation between the two calibrated parameters and predictive
outputs encapsulated in the model as a function of directly measurable parameters such as geometry, freshwater
discharge, and the tide, we can turn the model into a predictive tool. Predictions of salt intrusion were made for three
different increasing sea levels: mean sea level (MSL) +30 cm, MSL+75 cm, and MSL+100 cm. It was found from the
predicted results that the salt intrusion extends 3152% in the RRDs estuaries when the sea level is increased 100 cm.
Most of the estuaries are highly vulnerable to the sea level rise.

Keywords: Salt intrusion; Theoretical salt intrusion model; Predictive tool; Sea level rise; Red River Delta (RRD)

1. INTRODUCTION delta is that the lack of available datasets, especially

during the dry season. Generally, the numerical model
The rising of sea level is one of the most significant
requires a large number of measured data before the
subjects to the human being in the 21st century. It
calibration and prediction can take place. The input data
inundates the coastal zone and intensifies the salinity
for boundary and initial conditions, such as topography,
intrusion in rivers and estuaries. According to the
freshwater discharge, hydraulic conductivity, tidal
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the
velocity, and dispersion coefficient are extremely difficult
global average sea level has been risen 0.12 to 0.22 m in
to measure in reality that constrains the accurate modeling
the past hundred years. The IPCC also estimates that the
of the future changes in salinity distribution.
sea level will rise ranging from 26 to 59 cm by the year
2100, relative to 1990. Since analytical solutions are often most useful in
providing fundamental insight into physical phenomena,
Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries that will
it is also the goal of this study to apply an analytical
be seriously affected by the sea level rise. It is estimated
method for predicting the salt intrusion in estuaries. In the
10.74% of urban areas and 28.67% of wetlands will be lost,
previous work, we have presented an analytical salt
10.79% of the population will be displaced, and 10.21% of
intrusion model, which was developed for the complex
GDP will be reduced in the case of one-meter sea level rise
geometric estuaries. However, there is no definitive
(Dasgupta et al., 2007). The Red River Delta (RRD) in the
answer to the question of whether this model can be
northern part of Vietnam is a populous and low-laying
applied to predict the future salinity distribution,
area that is supposed to have severe damages in case of
especially for the case of sea level rise, or there is a need to
the sea level rise. The delta occupies approximately 23% of
extend the model so that it can have the predictive power.
the Vietnamese population; most of its rice-paddy fields
are lying at two meters below the mean sea level. In this study, the developed salt intrusion model is
applied into four estuary branches in the south part of the
In fact, global warming has more pressed on the rising of
RRD, i.e., Tra Ly, Red River, Ninh Co, and Day (Figure. 1).
sea level in this delta that was 3.1 mm/year during the last
Existing topography, salinity, and tidal data during a
century. According to the report of the Ministry of Natural
fortnight period in the dry season of 2006 were used to
Resources and Environment (MONRE, 2009a),
calibrate the model parameters. By establishing an
acceleration in sea level rise had caused the salt intrusion
empirical relation between calibrated parameters and
to be increased by 7 to 15% when the observed data for the
predictive outputs encapsulated in the model as a function
period from 1993 to 2007 are compared with those for the
of directly measurable parameters such as geometry,
period from 1965 to 1985. Therefore, sea level rise will
freshwater flow, and tidal excursion, we can turn the
increase the salinity level that enhances problems to the
model into a predictive tool. This is particularly useful for
ecosystems in the RRD.
the cases in which observation data are not available.
To date, numerous studies have conducted numerical Furthermore, the empirical relation can be reused to
models to make predictions of changes in salinity estimate the physical quantities such as the freshwater
distribution for the RRDs estuaries. One of the most discharge and dispersion coefficients when the
difficulties in conducting the model simulations for this topographic and tidal parameters are subjected to change.

1
Verification of the model performance is tested against the
2008 salinity dataset. A good agreement is found between
the model predictions and the measured data. This
successful validation ensures the extension of the model to
make predictions of changes in salinity distribution under
various boundary conditions. Here implications of sea
level rise for increasing of salinity are examined for three
different sea levels: mean sea level (MSL) +30 cm, MSL+75
cm, and MSL+100 cm.

2. SELECTION OF SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS

In 2009, experts of the Institute of Meteorology,
Hydrology, and Environment (IMHE) have deployed the
National Target Program in Response to Climate
Change." The Climate Change, Sea Level Rise Scenarios
for Vietnam was developed as a final target to provide
implement guidelines for ministries, sectors, and
provinces to develop action plans on response to climate
change. The scenarios have been officially published by Figure 1. The study area.
the MONRE in June 2009 (MONRE, 2009b). Scenarios for
sea level rise were divided into three groups according to estuaries like those in the RRD, a trumpet shape is found
IPCC emissions scenarios: high emission group, medium near the estuary mouth. In these estuaries, two or multiple
emission group, and low emission group. segments will be needed to describe the longitudinal
shape of the channel. A sketch of a geometrically-complex
In the low emission scenario, sea levels in 2020, 2050, 2070, estuary with a trumpet shape is presented in Figure 2, in
and 2100 are projected to be about 11, 28, 42, and 65 cm, which three different cross-sectional profiles are indicated
respectively. In the medium-emission scenario, sea level at high water level (HWL), mean water level (MWL), and
rise in 20 low water level (LWL).
20, 2050, 2070, and 2100 are projected to be about 12, 30, For geometrically-complex estuaries, it is difficult to
46, and 75 cm, respectively. In the high-emission scenario, describe the geometric profiles with a single exponential
sea levels in 2020, 2050, 2070, and 2100 are projected to be function (Eq. [1]). They may be split into two segments as
about 12, 33, 57, and 100 cm, respectively. The projection follows
on sea level rise for Vietnam in the next decade is much
higher than the projection of the IPCC. N1 = N0 exp(x/ln0) if 0 < x x1
In this study, the authors have selected three accelerative N2 = N1exp((xx1)/ln1) if x > x1 [2]
sea levels for the RRD based upon the sea level rise
scenarios defined by the MONRE. According to the Fre
sh- Q
medium emission scenarios, the sea level will rise 30 cm wa f
ter
by 2050. It will rise 75 cm and 100 cm by 2100, according inf
low
to the medium-emission scenario and the high-emission
scenario, respectively.

3. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
3.1 The shape of alluvial estuaries
One may regard an alluvial estuary as an ideal channel, in
which the depth is constant while the width and cross-
sectional area vary exponentially in the longitudinal
direction (Pillsbury, 1939; Langbein, 1963). By analyzing
field data, Wright et al. (1973), Prandle (1986), and Dyer
(1986) showed that the bathymetry of common estuary
can be approximated by an exponential function, and
later, Savenije (1993, 2005) expressed the profile as
N = N0 exp(x/ln) [1]
HWL
Where N is the geometric value at a distance from the MWL (TA
)

estuary mouth, N0 is the geometric value at the mouth, ln is LWL

the convergence length, and x is the coordinate taken to

the upstream direction from the mouth. These variables
(i.e., N, N0, and ln) can be replaced with the parameters of
Sea-

A, A0, and la for the cross-sectional area, B, B0, and lb for

wate
Qs flow

the width, and h, h0, and ld for the depth.

r in

There are some exceptions in the case of complex estuary,

in which its shape may be described with multi
exponential functions. In many geometrically-complex Figure 2. Sketch of a funnel-shaped estuary with complex geometry.

2
3.2 Salt balance equation
The longitudinal salinity distribution can be computed if
the topography, tide, and river discharge data are
available. Savenije (2005) presented a one-dimensional
unsteady salt-balance equation
S S ( x, t ) S ( x , t )
rs A
Q f Qt AD ( x , t )
t x x x
where rs is the storage width ratio between the total
surface width and the actual flow width, S(x, t) is the
salinity, Qf is the freshwater discharge, Qt is the tidal
discharge, D(x, t) is the longitudinal dispersion coefficient,
Rs is the source term, and t is time. Because the positive x-
direction points toward the upstream direction, for the
convenience, Qf has a negative value.
Assuming no sinks and sources in the system and an
equilibrium state between advective and dispersive terms
at the tidally averaged (TA) condition (i.e., S/t = 0 and
Qt = 0), Eq. [3] becomes
S TA S TA
Qf ADTA
x x x
In this formulation, the freshwater discharge is assumed
to be constant over space and time, and the cross-sectional
area at a certain point along the channel is kept constant
throughout one tidal cycle. Thus, Equation [4] can be
integrated with respect to x to give
ADTA S TA
S TA S f
Qf x Savenije (1993, 2005) also obtained an empirical equation
where Sf is the river-water salinity at the upstream end.
Aside from the TA condition, the present assumption can
be valid for two other extreme cases at high-water slack
(HWS) and low-water slack (LWS) (Eaton, 2007). For both
cases, Eq. [5] has been applied to predict the longitudinal
salinity distributions in several alluvial estuaries. The
salinity curves at HWS and LWS can be obtained by
shifting the TA salinity curve over half the tidal excursion
toward the sea and upstream end (Savenije, 2005; Nguyen
and Savenije, 2006). Since the tidal excursion is assumed to
be independent of x, the salinity profiles at HWS, LWS,
and TA have the same shape.
3.3 Salt intrusion model
Based on previous work by Van den Burgh (1972), the
longitudinal dispersion coefficient in an estuary can be
calculated. The relationship among the dispersion
coefficient, freshwater discharge, and cross-sectional area
is given by
Qf
dD
K [6]
dx A and E0 (= 0T/) at the estuary mouth, the dispersion
where K is Van den Burghs coefficient, which determines
the relative strength of tide-driven and density-driven salt
transports. A simple equation is proposed here, assuming
a constant value of K throughout the estuary. Substituting
Eq. [1] into the right hand side of Eq. [6] after replacing N,
N0, and ln with A, A0, and la, respectively, and integrated
along the estuary to have
D la KQ f x advection-diffusion model for estimating salinity
1 exp 1 [7]
D0
A0 D0 la
where D0 is the dispersion coefficient at the estuary
mouth. When substituting Eq. [7] into Eq. [5] and
integrating it with respect to x, we can obtain the salinity
equations for HWS, LWS, and TA. The unified cross-
sectional averaged salt-balance equation is
1
S ( x , t ) Rs [3] Si S f la KQ f x K
1 exp 1 [8]
i
S0 S f A0 D0i
la
where the subscript i indicates the three different tidal
conditions (i.e., HWS, LWS, and TA). This one-
dimensional steady advection-diffusion model has been
applied to describe the salinity variations along numerous
well-mixed estuaries (Savenije, 2005) and partially-mixed
estuaries (Nguyen and Savenije, 2006).
Previous researchers were confronted with various
difficulties when they developed the salt intrusion model.
Input values such as freshwater discharge and dispersion
coefficient were not known at all points. To overcome the
chronic problems, Savenije (2005) proposed a solution by
introducing a new variable as
[4]
Di
i 0
[9]
0 Qf
where is the mixing coefficient. Combining Eqs. [8] and
[9], the salinity curves at HWS, LWS, and TA can be fitted
to salinity data. Applying this method to many estuaries
in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mozambique, Gambia,
[5] England, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the United States,
for D0. This relationship was generalized and improved by
Nguyen and Savenije (2006) for partially- and well-mixed
estuaries. The dispersion coefficient D0, particularly for
the HWS situation, is expressed as follows
E
D0HWS 1400 0 0 hN R0.5 [10]
lb
where E0 is the tidal excursion at the mouth, defined as the
difference between the intrusion lengths at HWS and
LWS, 0 is the tidal velocity amplitude, is the average
depth over the salt intrusion length, and NR is the
Estuarine Richardson number. Fischer (1972) introduced
the Estuarine Richardson number as
ghQ f T
NR [11]
02Pt
where is the relative density of fresh water with respect
to sea water, is the density of fresh water, T is the tidal
period, and Pt is the flood volume of saltwater entering
the estuary over a tidal cycle (Pt = A0E). When the flood
volume can be well approximated by the product of A0
coefficient becomes
32
h Q f E0
D0HWS 1400 gT [12]
lb A0
3.4 Predictive model
Equation [8] constitutes the steady one-dimensional
distribution in a convergence estuary having multiple
segments. In the case of a geometrically-complex estuary,
3
 4 4
10 10
we can divide the estuary into several segments with (a) Tra Ly (b) Red River
piecewise constant rates of expansion or contraction. The 10
3
10
3

longitudinal salinity variation can be simulated by

2
applying the model to multiple segments so that effects of 10
2
10
model parameters and other physical forces can be 1 1
10 10
conveniently analyzed and evaluated. In that case, Eq. [8]
can be rewritten as follow 10
0
10
0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
4
Distance from river mouth (km) 10
4 Distance from river mouth (km)
1 10
(c) Ninh Co (d) Day
Si S f l KQ
aj f
x xj K 3
10
3

1 exp 1 10

S ij S f A j Dij

laj


10
2
10
2

1 1
for j=0 and j1 [13] 10 10

0
Where j is the segment number, ascending from the 10
0
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
mouth of the estuary. For the case of the RRDs estuaries, Distance from river mouth (km) Distance from river mouth (km)

because of the longitudinal variation in the cross-sectional Area at spring tide (m2) Area at mean tide (m2) Area at neap tide (m2)

area, herein, the authors use Eq. [13] to estimate the
longitudinal salinity distribution. Each of the estuaries is
divided into two segments. To solve Eq. [13], the values of
K, 0, and 1 need to be determined in advance. For an
estuary, these parameters can be obtained through
calibration between longitudinal salinity curves computed
by the salt intrusion model with observed salinity data. It
should be noted that when freshwater discharge is
constant along the length of the estuary, the value of 1
can be calculated on the basis of 0. Thus, recalling the left
hand sides of Eq. [7], taking ratio of 0 to 1, and
substituting 1=D1/Qf one obtains
1 la1K x Computed geometric parameters in the two exponential
1 exp 1 1 [14]
0 A0 0 la1
Here, the mixing coefficient at the estuary mouth ( 0) can
be obtained by substituting Eq. [9] into Eq. [12] to yield
32
h gTE0
0 1400 [15]
lb s Q f A0
In a contrary case in which either the salinity distribution
or the mixing coefficient is known, we can estimate the
freshwater discharge by dividing the computed dispersion
coefficient at the estuary mouth to the calibrated mixing
coefficient to yield
2
32
1400 h E
gT 0
lb A0
Q f [16]
0 convergence length clearly begins to emerge in these
To turn Eq. [13] into predictive tool for the salinity
distribution in the case of future sea level rise, we require
empirical equations that relate the three calibration
parameters (K, 0, and 1) to geometric (A, B, h, la, lb, ld),
hydrologic (Qf), and hydraulic (E0) parameters. By
employing the empirical relations for 0 and 1 (Eqs. [14]
and [15]), together with the salt intrusion model, salinity
distribution in a given estuary can be predicted for some
different cases of sea level rise.
4. RESULTS
4.1 Topography of the RRD
Figure 3 and Table 1 present geometric characteristics
along the Tra Ly, Red River, Ninh Co and Day estuary
W idth at spring tide (m) W idth at mean tide (m ) W idth at neap tide (m)
Depth at spring tide (m) Depth at mean tide (m) Depth at neap tide (m)
Figure 3. Geometric characteristics of the four estuary branches in
the RRD at HWS during spring, mean, and neap tides.
branches. The shapes of cross-sectional area, channel
width, and depth are depicted at HWS (figure only), LWS
and TA (table only) during spring, mean and neap tides.
The cross-sectional area and width are plotted directly
from bathymetric data, and the water depth represents the
ratio of these two geometric values. The convergence
lengths (la0, la1, lb0, lb1, ld0, and ld1) were obtained by
calibrating Eq. [2] against the measured data.
functions fit the observed data well. The cross-sectional
area, width, and depth profiles differ in profile among
HWS, LWS, and TA during spring tide, but they appear
identical during neap tide. It is significant to note that the
neap HWS and LWS levels are nearly equal to the
elevation of the estuarine floodplain, indicating that the
channel width expands considerably as the tidal level
exceeds the floodplain and reaches the spring HWS level.
The estuary branch appears to contain an inflection point
approximately 9 km from the estuary mouth. The channel
displays strong convergence in the downstream segment
but is weak upstream. The cross-sectional area and width
expand significantly from the inflection point to the
mouth, particularly at HWS, while depth gradually
decreases. In contrast, the area and width decrease slightly
from the inflection point to the upstream, whereas the
depth is nearly constant over the estuary length at a
specific tidal level. The influence of tidal variation on
profiles; an increase in tidal level correlates with greater
channel convergence.
4.2 Calibration of the model
The datasets used to calibrate the salt intrusion model are
salinity, tidal velocity, and topography. A series of field
measurements of salinity was conducted at the four
estuary branches of the RRD during the dry season in
2006. The measurement was carried out from January 3 to
19, 2006, including a fortnight tidal variation. For each
estuary branch, salinity was measured at two stations: 8
km and 23 km from the mouth (see Figure 1). At each
location, water was sampled simultaneously at three
different elevations: a height of 0.5 m from the bottom,
mid-depth, and a depth of 0.5 m from the water surface.
The sampling interval was one hour during the flood tide
and two hours during the ebb tide. In addition to these

4
 Table 1. Geometric characteristics of estuary branches in the RRD.

A0 B0 la0 lb0 A1 B1 la1 lb1

Estuary branch Tidal conditions
(m2) (m) (km) (km) (m2) (m) (km) (km)
Spring HWS 2800 730 16 13 1408 313 68 50
Spring LWS 1080 320 24 23 683 198 76 80
Mean HWS 2300 630 19 14 1289 287 70 52
Tra Ly
Mean LWS 1200 340 22 20 728 196 72 76
Neap HWS 1740 470 21 17 1031 246 70 68
Neap LWS 1500 410 21 17 888 215 70 69
Spring HWS 6200 1950 12 8 2929 633 135 90
Spring LWS 2500 530 18 20 1516 338 140 140
Mean HWS 5400 1750 13 8 2702 568 138 100
Red River
Mean LWS 2800 680 17 15 1649 373 140 140
Neap HWS 4000 1350 15 10 2195 549 138 110
Neap LWS 3500 900 16 13 1994 450 138 130
Spring HWS 4300 1220 16 14 2302 597 45 48
Spring LWS 1600 400 19 20 945 243 52 62
Ninh Co Mean HWS 3500 1150 16 14 1873 563 47 48
Mean LWS 1650 450 18 18 947 258 50 58
Neap HWS 2400 880 17 14 1333 431 50 51
Neap LWS 1850 610 17 16 1027 327 50 53
Spring HWS 3900 740 11 12 2475 488 95 75
Spring LWS 2000 450 14 14 1399 315 105 115
Day Mean HWS 3450 700 12 13 2274 476 95 75
Mean LWS 2200 460 14 14 1539 322 105 115
Neap HWS 2750 500 14 14 1924 350 105 110
Neap LWS 2480 470 14 14 1735 329 105 110

field data, the IMHE provided official dataset for salinity value in the Ninh Co branch. The small amount
at the mouth of all estuaries. The tidal information was of freshwater from the upstream yields a higher 0 value
collected from the Ba Lat station, which is located at the 8 in the Ninh Co branch when compared with it in other
km from the mouth of the Red River estuary. During the branches and consequently, the saltwater intrudes further
measurement period, the tidal velocity amplitude was upstream.
about 0.8 m/s in spring tide and 0.3 m/s in neap tide.
Detailed information on the estuarine topography was
acquired by the Department of Dike Management and
Flood and Storm Protection, the Ministry of Agriculture
Salinity (psu)

and Rural Development during the dry seasons in 1999-

2000 and 2007.
As the estuaries are well mixed during the period of the
measurement (Nguyen and Shintani, 2012), averaged
salinity over the water depth was used to calibrate the
Salinity (psu)

model. In the calibration process, first 0 and 1 were

obtained by Eqs. [14] and [15], and then the K value was
determined based on the fitting of the salt intrusion curves
against measured data. Secondly, we fixed the determined
K value to redefine the mixing coefficients. Figure 4 shows
the calibration results for the salinity profiles in the Tra
Salinity (psu)

Ly, Red River, Ninh Co, and Day branches in the spring,
mean, and neap tidal periods. The computed variations of
salinity fairly agree with the corresponding in-situ data.
The value of K is relatively small in all branches: We
attribute the smaller K value to the tidal mixing of
Salinity (psu)

freshwater and seawater. In the estuary branches of the

RRD, the mixing coefficient is relatively higher in the
downstream segment but lower in the upstream segment.
This result seems reasonable because the cross-section
becomes larger when approaching the river mouth; thus,
the influence of the river discharge on the mixing
coefficient is limited. The 0 value in the spring tide is Figure 4. Computed salinity intrusion fitted to the measured data
different from that in the neap tide in the Tra Ly, Red for the four estuary branches during the spring, mean, and neap
River, and Day branches, but they have about the same tides in 2006.

5
4.3 Empirical regression for the mixing coefficients
Concerning boundary variations for the calibration
parameters 0 and 1, a regression analysis has been
adopted for the measured data. Figure 5 presents a
comparison between the computed mixing coefficients
from Eqs. [14] and [15] and the calibrated values obtained
from the calibration of the salt intrusion model. In order to
obtain the predictive values of the mixing coefficients, the
freshwater discharge should be determined in advance. In
the RRD, the freshwater discharge is measured only at the
Son Tay and Hanoi stations for the Red River and at the
Thuong Cat station for the Duong River during the dry
season. Because no systematic data are available from
other stations in the downstream areas, we used the
estimated ratios, which were determined in the authors
previous work (Nguyen et al., 2012). On the basic of the
total amount of freshwater discharge measured at the Son
Tay station during the field survey periods, the computed
discharge rate in each estuary branch is 8.1% for the Tra
Ly, 17.2% for the Red River, 5.1% for the Ninh Co, and
11.1% for the Day.
It is found from Figure 5 that the calibrated values of 0
and 1 fit well with the computed values. Thus, hereafter,
the authors use Eqs. [14] and [15] derived from the
geometric and tidal parameters as the empirical relations
to evaluate effect of changes in the hydrology or the
geometry of the estuary involved on the mixing
coefficients.
4.4 Validation of the model
On December 15, 2008, the IMHE performed field
measurements of salinity by using the moving boat
method. Measurements started 0.5 km from the mouth of
the Tra Ly, Red River, Ninh Co, and Day branches; the
salinity was measured along branches at 4 km intervals at
both HWS and LWS.
Using the calibrated values for the geometry and the
discharge data acquired at the Son Tay station, we can
determine the mixing coefficients from Eqs. [14] and [15].
Employing these determined model parameters together
with the calibrated parameter K into the salt intrusion
model (Eq. [13]), one can predict the salinity distribution
for each of the estuary branches. Results computed by the
salt intrusion model against measurements at a spring tide
(December 15, 2008) are presented in Figure 6. The
application empirical relations for mixing coefficients
produced qualitatively good results that fit well the
observed salinity profiles at HWS and LWS. This
underlines the power of the model for predicting the
salinity intrusion in alluvial estuaries having complex
geometric shapes.
4.5 Predictions of salt intrusion for sea level rise
When predicting saltwater intrusion for the future cases of
sea level rise, one has to determine the potential changes
in freshwater discharges and topography profiles. In this
study, we assumed that the current channel shapes of all
branches would not change as sea level increases. In
addition, the fractions of freshwater discharge distributed
over the branches of the RRD remain unchanged and
values of the hydraulic parameters (i.e., tidal range H and
tidal excursion E0) coincide with the obtained values
during the spring tide in the dry season of 2008.
20
18 Tra Ly
Red River
16 Ninh Co
Day
0 and 1
14
Computed
12
10
Computed
8
6
4
2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Calibrated
Calibrated 0 and 1
Figure 5. Comparison between the computed and calibrated
mixing coefficients.
Table 2 shows the geometric characteristics for four
branches in the RRD, together with the predicted values of
0 and 1 for three different sea levels. Figure 7 presents
the calculated longitudinal salinity profiles for the Tra Ly,
Red River, Ninh Co, and Day branches. In all branches,
the extent of salinity intrusion becomes large with rising
sea level. In the Tra Ly branch, the location of 1 psu
increases 7%, 26%, or 40% over the present distance when
the sea level rise is +30 cm, +75 cm, or +100 cm. The
corresponding values are 25%, 37%, and 52% for the Red
River, 8%, 23%, and 33% for the Ninh Co, and 12%, 34%,
and 39% for the Day. The location of 4 psu also changes
noticeably when the sea level increases 100 cm. The
increased rate of the extent of salinity intrusion is 41% for
the Tra Ly, 46% for the Red River, 31% for the Ninh Co,
and 42% for the Day, respectively. The Vietnamese
government has established a standard for water
extraction in estuaries, in which the salinity of 1 psu is the
upper threshold value for drinking water and that of 4 psu
is the marginal value for irrigation water. The author also
notices that the mixed water keeps the high saline density
between the estuary mouth and the distance of 15 km, but
decreases it rapidly from the site and slowly toward the
upstream in the Tra Ly, Red River, and Day branches. In
contrast, the salinity profile decreases gradually from the
river mouth to the upper stream in the Ninh Co branch.
The other profiles of salinity intrusion look alike at the
same sea level conditions.
Figure 6. Validation results of the model to the measurements at
HWS and LWS during a spring tide in December 15, 2008. The
blue-gray shapes show the predicted results at HWS for a range
of 10%.
6
Table 2. Geometric characteristics and mixing coefficients for three different sea levels.

Estuary Tidal level x1 A0 B0 h0 lb0 A1 B1 h1 lb1 Qf 0 1

Branch (cm) (km) (m2) (m) (m) (km) (m2) (m) (m) (km) (m3/s) (m-1) (m-1)
MSL+30 13 3100 750 4.6 20 1600 327 5.0 75 110 11.8 10.8
Tra Ly MSL+75 14 3900 830 4.9 22 1800 460 5.5 106 110 13.1 12.0
MSL+100 14 4400 890 5.2 22 2000 475 5.8 106 110 13.9 13.0
MSL+30 13 6400 2120 4.6 13 3500 620 5.6 140 275 5.6 4.9
Red
MSL+75 14 7200 2200 5.0 16 4000 680 6.2 155 275 6.4 5.8
River
MSL+100 14 7600 2250 5.3 18 4300 690 6.6 160 275 6.8 6.3
MSL+30 10 4700 1380 4.3 17 2400 640 4.4 50 65 14.9 14.0
Ninh Co MSL+75 10 5400 1400 4.8 20 2600 670 5.2 50 65 18.7 18.0
MSL+100 11 5800 1420 5.1 20 2700 680 5.5 50 65 20.6 19.9
MSL+30 6 4200 950 4.7 16 2800 510 5.8 88 240 7.2 6.8
Day
MSL+75 8 4600 980 4.9 16 3000 515 6.1 90 240 9.7 9.2
MSL+100 9 4800 990 5.2 16 3100 520 6.2 90 240 10.6 10.0

To further investigate the spatial variations of salinity, the
author made practical maps of the increasing salt
intrusion caused by sea level rise for the RRD. The salt
concentrations of 4 psu and 1 psu are indicated by the
contour lines for different tidal levels (see, Figure 8). In
general, the result testifies the strong tidal effect to the
spatial variation of salinity. When the river discharge is
rather small in the dry season, the tidal effect mainly gives
the high dense water mixing. The analysis of saltwater
intrusion reveals that most part of the RRD is highly
vulnerable to the sea level rise, although the increase of 30
cm shows insignificant change from the present status.
The impact, however, becomes more severe when the sea
elevation is combined with the higher tide.
represent. This strategy allows us to utilize the model at
levels of complexity that sufficiently represent all
processes at which the prediction of interest may depend.
The method was extended to establish empirical relations
for mixing coefficients as a function of directly measurable
parameters such as geometry, freshwater flow, and tide.
These empirical relations can be reused to determine the
freshwater discharge in the RRD if observations are not
available during a certain time.
The proposed method was applied to the RRDs branches

5. CONCLUSIONS
This study presents a predictive solution for salt intrusion
in relation with the construction of a flexible model. The
proposed method was developed based on the premise
that a calibrated model can be used for making
predictions of future system behavior if the information
content of the calibration data is sufficiently enough to
constrain the model parameters. Hence, the
parameterizations estimated through calibration for
different geometric and hydrologic conditions can ensure
the model to reproduce the reality that it is designed to

Figure 7. Predicted longitudinal salinity profiles of the four Figure 8. Maps of the salinity distribution into the estuaries in the
estuary branches in the RRD. RRD for cases of sea level rise.

7
to predict variations in salinity distribution under the
effect of sea level rise. Each estuary branch was divided
into two segments, considering geometry profiles in
different tidal phases. Existing geometry and salinity data
were used to calibrate the model parameters with which
the empirical relations were analyzed for all estuary
branches at different tidal phases. Based on these
empirical relations, model parameters were determined
for a wide range of channel shape and boundary condition
caused by the rising of sea level. The calculations for
saltwater intrusion were carried out for three different sea
levels: i.e., (1) the present MSL+30 cm; (2) +75 cm; and (3)
+100 cm. The results revealed that most parts of the
estuary branches in the RRD suffer the salinity damage
that become more severe in higher sea level conditions.
The study indicates that the predictive salt intrusion
model was satisfactory to estimate the salinity distribution
in a complex estuarine system such as the RRD.
Pillsbury, G. (1939). Tidal Hydraulics. US Corps of
Engineers, Vicksburg, USA.
Savenije, H.H.G. (1993). Predictive model for salt intrusion
in estuaries, J. Hydrology, 148, 203218.
Savenije, H.H.G. (2005). Salinity and Tides in Alluvial
Estuaries, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 197pp.
Van den Burgh, P. (1972). Ontwikkeling van een methode
voor het voorspellen van zoutverdelingen in estuaria,
kanalen en zeeen. Rijkwaterstaat Rapport.
Wright, L.D., Coleman, J.M., and Thom, B.G. (1973).
Process of channel development in a high tide range
environment: Cambridge Gulf-Ord river delta, Western
Australia. J. Geology, 81, 15-41.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We would like to acknowledge the financial support by
the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. This study
was carried out as part of the research cooperation
between the Water Resources University in Hanoi,
Vietnam and the Kitami Institute of Technology in
Hokkaido, Japan.

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