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Researched By;
Group # 04
Najam- us- Sehar 10
Muhammad Anis 15
Sajjad Hussain 24
Shakir Rashid 27
Waseem Iqbal 33
Sadia Zahoor 38
Muhammad Ramzan 43
M.Com 2nd
(2007-2009)
Presented to
Mr.
Azhar Sheikh
Business Research Method 4
Causes of wheat Shortage in Pakistan
TO OUR
PARENTS
& TEACHERS
We certified that our group session 2008-2010 has carried out this report
titled “Causes of Wheat Shortage in Pakistan”.
Under the supervision of Sir Azhar Sheikh Department of Commerce The Islamia
University of BWP.
Name of Group
Group # 4
Roll No.
(10, 15, 24, 27, 33, 38, 43)
M. Com (2nd Morning)
The Islamia University BWP
Supervisor ______________.
All praises for ALLAH, the Almighty, who guides us in the darkness and
help in difficulties and all respect, and for Holy Prophet Hazrat Muhammad
(Peace Be Upon Him) who enables us to recognize our creator, who enlightens
our minds to choose the right path of life.
The words are meaning less to express our heartful to Mr. Azhar Sheikh
for his outstanding suggestions and kind help at each and every step. It was
very difficult we want to say impossible to complete this research report in such
a good manner.
We feel honor to express our sincere gratitude to Mr. Azhar Sheikh for
this supervision, guidance and encouragement throughout this research. We
always found him very much alive, full of zeal, vitality and intellectual curiosity.
With out his ideas, remarks and endless interest out and completed and
thanks to all teachers.
Special ovation to our parents they cherished us from our childhood and
reminded a source of strength during our studies. We want to thanks our
parents for there prays valuable guidance, suggestion and assistance in every
moment of life.
Chapter
Executive Summary
Wheat is a staple food of people of Pakistan and the largest grain crop
of the country. The average yield of wheat in Pakistan is far less than the
potential yield and yield realized by the progressive farmers and research
stations. The purpose of present study is to estimate the average wheat yield
and forecast the future wheat production in Bahawalpur (Pakistan).
We have collected the data from two tehsils (Yazman & Ahmed pur East)
of district Bahawalpur and finding the reasons for wheat shortage in Pakistan.
The data used in the present study were collected from 2 tehsils of Bahawalpur
district i.e. 1st Ahmed pur East & 2nd Yazman of the Punjab province. We have
interviewed 100 farmers from above mentioned tehsils and have taken 2
villages from each tehsil and interviewed 25 farmers from each village.
We have used SPSS software for data analysis and also took help from
excel. We used z-test, arithmetic mean for data analysis. According to our
research most of the farmers were facing so many difficulties such as high
prices of pesticides, fertilizers and shortage of canal water.
There are two main problems, which the farmers are facing now days
such as unavailability of quality seeds and Government does not provide any
information related to ploughing and cultivation. Due to low prices of wheat,
farmers are discouraged and are using less area for wheat production.
According to the FAO survey, Pakistan ranks 9th in wheat production among
121 wheat producing countries.
In most of the cases such as new diseases Government does not provide
any up-to-date information and if they do so it is done of that stage when the
crops are totally destroyed. Rising inputs prices for farmers has also added to
escalating foods prices. The previous Government has also reduced wheat
subsidies that had a negative impact on farmers. Farmers always produce
commodities that have an attractive price with the reduced subsidies; they
switched to others cash crops such as sunflowers etc.
The previous Government blames the wheat shortage on illegal smuggling to
Afghanistan, Central Asia and Russia. However the black market is a weak
excuse by the Pakistani Government. Nevertheless, all is not lost. Pakistan is a
rich land. Currently the Punjab province 17 million tones of wheat annually. So
Government should takes steps to overcome such obstacles and reduce the
wheat shortage in Pakistan.
Chapter
2
Introduction
force. Almost two third of the country’s population is living in rural areas and
directly or indirectly linked with agriculture for the livelihood (Government of
Pakistan, 2008).
In Punjab, agriculture is dominated by the crop sector. The value
added of major crops accounts for 41% of value added in over all agriculture.
Agriculture in Punjab is not entirely subsistent; there are farmers who grow
crops at the commercial level. They sell a part of their product and purchase
the required inputs. They are, therefore, affected by the changes in prices of
agricultural products received and by technological and marketing
developments. Wheat is an important food crop of the world. It was grown in
121 countries on 215 million hectares in 2008 representing 15% of the world’s
cropped area. Over 583 million tons of wheat was harvested in 2008, which
constituted 28% of the world food supplies of which 17% was traded in the
world market (FAO 2008).
Global wheat consumption was up for the fifth year in a row and is
exceeded wheat production. Consequently, wheat stocks tended to deplete,
particularly among the importer (FSA, 2008). Developing world’s share of all
wheat imports amounted to 60% and had been increasing for 25 years and was
expected to continue unabated (FAO 2008).
Out of the 121 wheat growing countries, Pakistan ranks 8th in terms of yield per
unit area (FAO 2008).
The data used in the present study were collected from 2 tehsils of
Bahawalpur district i.e. 1st Ahmed pur East & 2nd Yazman of the Punjab
province. We have interviewed 100 farmers from above mentioned tehsils and
have taken 2 villages from each tehsil and interviewed 25 farmers from each
village.
2.5 Objectives
We will conduct our research in Bahawalpur for the purpose to know the
reasons behind this shortage of wheat. So it will be our applied research
because the shortage of flour prevails only in Pakistan. It will be not applicable
to other country facing the same shortage of flour. Because the variable may
totally differ from Pakistan.
EXPORT / IMPORT
Pakistan's economy has taken a new turn with the country for the first time
entering the wheat export market with the shipment of 35,000 tons to Iraq in 2002.
Depending upon production and inland consumption, export quantity varied from year
to year.
Pakistan falls in top ten wheat-producing countries of the world and ranks
at No. 9 in terms area under wheat cultivation. We are No. 5 in terms of yield
per hectare and stand at No. 8 in terms of production. However, it is very hard
to compare the yield of different countries due to differences in climate, crop
Business Research Method 21
Causes of wheat Shortage in Pakistan
This research has been assigned to us an academic activity with the view
to throw us into the practical world. This report will complement our educational
Business Research Method 22
Causes of wheat Shortage in Pakistan
and learning process from practical side; certainly this report will extend and
enhance our abilities to cope with the actual situations, while we were
preparing the research proposal, developing and designing the questionnaire
filled in analyzing the results and presenting the findings and
recommendations.
The results of this research report can be used to explore the hidden
reasons behind the shortage of wheat in Pakistan.
Chapter
3
Literature review
3.1 History
1974 Oct 19, 1974 - Moslem sect; border troubles with the neighboring
Afghans, some potential wheat shortages and an annual inflation
rate of 25 Per cent.
1997 Apr 19, 1997 - KARACHI, Pakistan - A national wheat shortage has
caused people to line up for hours to buy flour, and yesterday a mob looted a
truck carrying flour to market. The shortage has caused food riots around the
country in recent weeks.
2001 Apr 21, 2001 - Fishing has been decimated, farmland is parched,
and rioters have smashed windows and overturned cars to protest
water shortages in Karachi, ... "The wheat production in Sindh has
2007 Sep 26, 2007 - It is most regrettable that in this wheat shortage
scandal the government is behaving in exactly the same manner: refusing to
take action against the hoarders, whose identity it must surely be in
knowledge of.
2009 Mar 14, 2009 - LAHORE: the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and
Services Corporation (PASSCO) on Tuesday opened tenders for the import of
150000 metric tons of wheat scheduled to be shipped into the country by mid
February to avert any wheat shortage.
3.2 Wheat Shortage IN Pakistan
Wheat shortage in Pakistan has taken place four times Causes of the shortage
have been the same that is smuggling to neighboring countries. But none of
those shortages were as acute as now.
Chapter
Data analysis
4.1 Methodology
Primary data on cost, returns and yield of wheat were collected
using prescribed questionnaire. The questionnaire was pre-tested in the
field and modified accordingly. Simple random technique was used to
select the respondent farmers. Data were collected by personal interview
method.
4.8 Questionnaires
Our research is the qualitative type of research. We have taken the
interviews from the PA of the PASSCO centre Food inspector and honors of
two mills and take the questionnaire from the Land lords and the formers.
Q If more than or less than then what factors you think behind this?
Because the farmer do not want to cultivate the wheat and feel
Hesitation.
Q. What is target of Govt. for this year purchasing the wheat from farmers?
According the sample of Bahawalpur PASSCO centre is 1,400,000
Bags of 100 kg.
Q. If can not achieve the target then what factors behind this?
It involves the wrong Govt. policies due to wrong reports from
Survey teams and the arrogation system of Pakistan.
Section-A
1. My age is in between:
51-abov
e
11% 20-30
20%
41-50
30%
31-40
39%
3
1
-m
or
e 1
-
10a
cr
es
8% 1
2%
2
1
-3
0a
cr
es
2
1
%
1
1
-2
0a
cr
es
5
9%
1-10
acres 11-20 acres 21-30 acres 31- above
• This shows that more of our farmer is poor and their income level is
low.
Equal
15%
More
10%
Less
75%
(A) Rates of out put (B) Rates of input (C)any other reasons
anyother
reasons Ratesof out put
39% 43%
Ratesof input
18%
• Some of the farmers who cultivate more are due out puts but there
are many other reasons like some have invested more and hire
more land for cultivation.
5. If less than, it is due to:
(A) Rates of out put (B) Rates of input (C)any other reasons
anyother
reasons
6%
Ratesof
input
24%
Ratesof out
put
70%
• People hesitate to cultivate more wheat due to the low rate of out
put.
Section-B
Business Research Method 34
Causes of wheat Shortage in Pakistan
SA A
SD
2% 8%
15%
U
10%
D
65%
SA
SD
6%
15
%
A
30%
D
4
1% U
8%
• 41% of the farmer has said that they are according to our
requirement. But many of the others have replied that we are this
agreeing to it.
SD
11%
SA
D
33%
14%
U
4%
A
38%
• Huge number of farmer have replayed that it’s higher then their
paying capacity because they are belonging to lower income class.
SA
SD
6%
15%
A
30%
D
41% U
8%
10. I prefer to sell out my crop to private sectors rather than Govt.
SA A U D SD
SD
D 4%
16%
SA
U
49%
10%
A
21%
SD SA
11% 4% A
17%
U
10%
D
58%
SA A U D SD
• Poor farmer can’t get the required seeds at right time and quality.
SD
SA
8%
16%
A
D 15%
37%
U
24%
SA A
U
0%4%
8%
D
20%
SD
68%
SD SA
15% 16%
D A
28% 25%
U
16%
• Equal likely cases of loans are appeared. Poor said that loans are
only given to rich farmer or the person who has some approach.
SA A
0% 6% U
13%
SD
37%
D
44%
SA
SD
4%
19% A
19%
U
10%
D
48%
• Some land lords have said that they can avail the new technology
SA A
SD 0% 8% U
21% 7%
D
64%
18. I can easily access to the market to sell out the crop.
SA A U D SD
SD
5%
D SA
17% 29%
U
8%
A
41%
• Yes they can easily access to the market to sell out the crop
SA A
2%2% U
13%
SD
37%
D
46%
• Poor farmer can not purchase latest tools for cultivation easily
SA A U D SD
SA
5%
A
18%
SD
39%
U
14%
D
24%
Chapter
Variables
1. EXPORTS
RATE OF OUTPUT
HIGH RATE OF IN
PUT Cultivation of wheat
HOARDING
EXPOR
TS
Chapter
Findings
Chapter
Conclusion
Rate of inputs also causing the shortage of wheat. Farmer has limited
resources to meat the increasing the rate of input.
Wheat is also influenced by the export which is Moderate variable it enhance
the relationship in both the senses.
Wrong reports given by the survey teams to the Government and made
the policies on basis of false reports, due to which they give the permission
to export the wheat, which becomes an other reason of the shortage of
wheat.
Chapter
8
Business Research Method 46
Causes of wheat Shortage in Pakistan
• Hoarding should be control by the Government by taking the actions like Khasra
Gardawari.
• The survey team should provide the actual results, which should be based on real facts
and figures.
• There should be check and balance over the survey teams, the reports given by the
• Government should provide extra facilities in case of natural calamities and disasters.
Chapter
9
Business Research Method 47
Causes of wheat Shortage in Pakistan
Limitations
Chapter
References
www.infoplease.com
Source: ICARDA. 2002. WANA Catalogue of Field and Seed Standards.
Third Edition. No. 25/02. Aleppo, Syria
Source: MINFAL
www.bsp.gov.pk
: http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/business/pakistan-to-import-wheat-from-
india_10046071.html
http://www.thepigsite.com/swinenews/16675/backdrop-for-current-wheat-
shortage
Source: http://www.naitazi.com/2008/01/17/pakistan-faces-wheat-shortage/
Source:http://rememberjenkinsear.blogspot.com/2008/01/wheat-shortage-not-
cause-of-pakistan.html
PASSCO Bahawalpur