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Chapter-02
PROJECT APPRAISAL
Outline Syllabus
Market Appraisal - information required for market and demand analysis -
demand forecasting Technical appraisal - material and inputs - machinery and
equipment - structures and civil works - work schedules, Financial appraisal
-cost of project and means of financing - profitability - assessing tax burden
- financial projections. Economic appraisal - measuring cost and benefits,
appraisal criteria -social costs benefit analysis.
Steps: The steps involved in determining the project rating index are as follows:
1. Identify factors relevant for project rating
2. Assign weights to these factors (the weights are supposed to reflect their relative importance)
3. Rate the project proposal on various factors, using a suitable rating scale.(Typically a 5-point
scale or a 7-point scale is used for this purpose)
4. For each factor multiply the factor rating with the factor weight to get tin- factor score
5. Add all the factor scores to get the overall project rating index
Chapter 2: Project Appraisal 19
Following table illustrates the determination of the project rating index. Once the project rating
index is determined, it is compared with a pre-determined hurdle value to judge whether the
project is prima facie worthwhile or not
determination of the project rating index
Factor Factor Rating Factor
VG G A P VP
Weight Score
5 4 3 2 1
Input availability 0 25 0.75
Technical know-how 0.10 0.40
Reasonableness of cost 0.05 0.20
Adequacy of market 0.15 0.75
Complementary relationship with other products 0.05 0.20
Stability 0.10 0.40
Dependence on firm's strength 0.20 1.00
Consistency with governmental priorities 0.10 0.30
Rating Index 4.00
Generation of ideas
New ideas or creativity is the ability to combine, or synthesize available information and
experiences to see new patterns and possibilities. Ideas can be generated by:
Any individual with expertise skill in a specific area who feels that he can contribute to
the creation of a new product.
Associates, who encourage him, show a willingness to join him and endorse his ideas.
Monitoring the basic infrastructure, economy, technology, competition sector, supplier
sector etc.
An analysis of the performance of existing industries.
A study of the input/output of various industries.
A review of the imports and exports.
Screening of ideas
By using the processes described in the preceding section, a company can develop a long list of
project ideas. We need some preliminary screening to shortlist ideas that hold promise that are
remotely possible. For this, we need to follow the following steps:
Chapter 2: Project Appraisal 21
Compatibility with the promoter
Consistency with the Government priorities
Availability of inputs
Adequacy of the market
Reasonableness of cost
Acceptability of risk level
A study of plan outlays and Government guidelines
After the preliminary screening, we have to focus on the profit potential, latent in these ideas.
Michael Porter has given a theoretical base, which is widely accepted and used, by consulting
agencies while evaluating projects.
3. Financial analysis: Financial analysis tries to ascertain whether the planned project will be
financially feasible in the sense of being able to meet the saddle of servicing debt and whether the
planned project will convince the return expectations of those who provide the capital. Cost,
22 Project Management
profitability, financing, break-even point, cash flow, level of risk and financial position are the
feature that have to be looked into while conditioning financial appraisal.
4. Economic analysis: Economic analysis is also referred to as social cost benefit analysis and is
concerned with evaluating a project from the larger social point of view. In such a judgement the
focus is on the social costs and benefits of a project which may usually be different from its
economic costs and benefits.
5. Ecological analysis: In recent years, environmental concerns have assumed a great deal of
importance and rightly so. Ecological analysis should be done particularly for major projects
which have significant ecological inference like plants and irrigation schemes, and environmental
polluting industries like bulk drugs, chemicals and leather processing.
Assess different facts of feasibility study in project analysis.
BBA (Professional) 2009, 2011,2012,2014
6. Government Policy: A government policy which shelters a firm from the onslaught of
competition enables it to earn superior returns. Government policies that create entry barriers,
partial or absolute, include the following:
Restrictive licensing
Import restrictions
High tariff walls
Environmental controls
Special tax reliefs
Government Policy can help a firm to create of positive Net Present Value.
Discuss the sources of positive Net Present Value (NPV).
BBA (Professional) 2008, 2010
Step 1: Situation analysis and specification of objectives: In order to get a "feel" of the
relationship between the product and its market, the project analyst may informally talk to
customers, competitors, middleman and others in industry.
Step 2. Collection of Secondary information: In order to answer the questions listed while
delineating the objectives of the market study, information may be obtained from secondary
source and primary source.
Step 3. Conduct of market survey: For getting primary and secondary information market
survey is need to be done.
Step 4. Characterization of the market:
(i) Effective demand in the past and present;
(ii) Breakdown of demand;
(ii) Price;
(iii) Methods of distribution and sales promotion;
(v) Consumers;
(vi) Supply and competition;
(vii) Government policy.
Step 5. Demand forecasting: After gathering information about various aspects of the market
and demand from primary and secondary sources, an attempt may be made to estimate future
demand.
Step 6. Uncertainties in demand forecasting:
(i) Data about past and present market;
Chapter 2: Project Appraisal 25
(ii) Methods of forecasting;
(iii) Environmental change.
Step 07. Market planning:
(i) Current marketing situation;
(ii) Opportunity and issue analysis
(iii) Objective
(vi) Marketing strategy;
(vii) Action programmed.
What are the steps involved in market and demand analysis?
Discuss the steps involved in market and demand analysis. BBA (Profe.) 2007
"Market and Demand Analysis involve consideration and implementation of certain
specific and sequential steps". Justify the statement using a diagram and also
mention the objectives of Market and Demand Analysis.
BBA (Professional) 2009
1. PUBLISHED SOURCES
Some of the published sources providing secondary information are:
26 Project Management
Government Publications: A number of government, semi-government and private
organizations collect data related to business, trade, prices, consumption, production, industries,
income, health, population etc. These publications are very powerful source of secondary
information, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (B.B.S.), National Sample Survey (N.S.S.),
Directorate of Economics and Statistics and Labour Bureau, Ministry of labour are a few
government publications.
International Publications: Various governments in the world and international agencies
regularly publish reports on data collected by them on various aspects. For example. U.N.Os
Statistical Year Book, Demography Year book etc can be named in this category.
Semi-official Publications: Local bodies like District Boards, Municipal Corporations
publish periodical.; providing information about vital factors like health, births, deaths etc.
Reports of Committees and Commissions: At times governments service commission
and commissions with a specific reference to study a phenomenon. The reports of these
committees and commissions provide important secondary information. For example,
Education commission report on education reforms, Report of National Agricultural
Commission, Taxation and Pay commission reports etc.
Private Publications: The following private publications may also be enlisted as the
source of secondary information :
Journals and Newspapers: Eastern Economists, Monthly Statistics of Trade, Financial
Express, Economic Times are some of the Journals and Newspapers which regularly collect and
publish data on various aspects of business, economics, commerce and trade.
Research Publications: A number of research organizations, university departments and
institutes like Bangladesh Statistical Burrow (BSB), N.C.T.B., etc also contribute significantly
to the availability of secondary information.
Publications of Business and Financial Institutions: A number of business and
financial institution like chamber of commerce and Trade Association, Institute of Charted
Accountants, Sugar Mill Association, Stock Exchanges Trades Unions and co-operative
societies, etc. also contribute significantly for the availability of secondary data in the related
areas.
Articles: Market Reviews and reports also provide data for analysis.
2. UNPUBLISHED SOURCES
In some cases data are collected but these are not put in published from. For example research
scholars in the institutes and universities, trade associations and labour bureaus do collect data
but they never put it in published from. Still, the data from these sources may be used when
needed.
What are the general sources of Secondary information?
How would you evaluate secondary information? BBA (Professional) 2010
Chapter 2: Project Appraisal 27
2.09 STEPS IN A SAMPLE SURVEY
Sample survey now a days, is the most efficient technique of providing relevant information for
drawing inference about a population. From economic point of view, it is the only viable means to
study the population. It is therefore essential to describe the main steps involved in executing a
sample survey. The following are some of the step:
1. Define the target population: In defining the target population the important terms should be
carefully and unambiguously defined.
2. Selecting the sampling scheme and sample size: There are several sampling schemes: simple
random sampling, cluster sampling, sequential sampling etc. from these a sampling scheme is to
be selected.
3. Develop the questionnaire: The questionnaire is the principal instrument for eliciting
information from the sample respondents.
4. Recruit and train the field investigators: Recruiting and training of field investigators must
be planned well since it can be time consuming.
5. Obtain information as per the questionnaire from the sample of respondents: Respondents
may be interviewed personally, telephonically or by mail for obtaining information personal
interview ensure a high rate of response.
6. Scrutinize the information gathered: Information gathered should be thoroughly scrutinized
to estimate date which is internally inconsistent and which is of dubious validity.
7. Analyze and interpret the information: Information gather in the survey needs to be
analyzed and interpreted with care and imagination.
Discuss the key steps in a sample survey. BBA (Professional) 2009,2010,2011,2013
4. Methods of distribution and sales promotion: The method of distribution may very with the
nature of the product. Capital goods, industrial raw materials or intermediates and consumers
products tend to have different distribution channels.
5. Consumers: Consumers may be characterized along two dimensions as follows: (i)
Demographic and Sociological; (ii) Attitudinal
6. Supply and competition: It is necessary to know the existing sources of supply and whether
they are foreign or domestic.
7. Government policy: The role of the government in influencing the demand and market for a
product may be significant.
How would you characterize the market? BBA (Professional) 2014
(2) Proportionate or percentage Method: The second method of measuring price elasticity of
demand is called proportionate or percentage method. According to this method, percentage
change in demand is divided by percentage change in price. Its formula is as under:
32 Project Management
(3) Point Elasticity of Demand or Point Elasticity Method: Point elasticity refers to price
elasticity of demand at any point on the demand curve. In other words, this method is used to
know the elasticity of demand of different points on a linear demand curve.
According to Left witch, "Elasticity computed at a single
point on the curve for an infinitely small change in price, is
point elasticity."
Price elasticity on a linear demand curve depends on the
slope of the curve and the point at which the measurement is
PRICE (Tk.)
made. Thus, price elasticity of demand is different at
different points on a given demand curve. Accordingly, price
elasticity at every point of a given demand curve is measured
separately. Under this method the price elasticity of demand
is calculated by the following formula.
According to Watson, "Arc elasticity is the elasticity at the mid-point of an arc of a demand
curve."
In the words of Ferguson, "Arc elasticity is a measure of the average elasticity between two
points on the demand curve."
One complication is inherent in this concept. In the elasticity formula:
(5) Revenue Method: Fifth method of calculating price elasticity of demand is called revenue
method. Sale proceeds that a firm obtains by selling its products is called its revenue. Price
elasticity of demand is measured with the help of average and marginal revenue as per the
following formula-
Selection
Implementation
Review
34 Project Management
1. Planning: The planning phase involves investment strategy and the generation and preliminary
screening of project proposals. The investment strategy provides the framework that shapes,
guides and circumscribes the identification of individual project opportunities.
2. Analysis: If the preliminary screening suggests that the project is worth investing, a detailed
analysis of the marketing, technical, financial, economic, and ecological aspects is conducted.
3. Selection: The selection process addresses the questionis the project worth investing? A
wide range of appraisal criteria has been suggested to judge the worth of a project. There are two
broad categories. They are Non-Discounting criteria and Discounting criteria. Some selection
rules for both methods are listed below: -
Non-discounting criteria Accept Reject
Pay Back Period (PBP) PBP < target period PBP >target period
Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) ARR > target rate ARR < target rate
Discounting criteria Accept Reject
Net Present Value (NPV) NPV > 0 NPV < 0
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) IRR > cost of capital IRR < cost of capital
Benefit- Cost Ratio (BCR) BCR >1 BCR < 1
4. Implementation: The implementation phase for an industrial project, which involves the
setting up of manufacturing facilities, consists of several stages:
Project and engineering designs
Negotiations and contracting
Construction
Training
Plant commissioning
5. Review: Once the project is commissioned, a review phase has to be set in motion.
Performance review should be done periodically to compare the actual performance with the
projected performance. In this stage, feedback is useful in several ways:
It focuses on realistic assumptions
It provides experience, which will be valuable in future decision making
It suggests corrective action
It helps to uncover judgmental biases
It advocates the need for caution among project sponsors.
Levels of decision making: In addition to various phases of capital budgeting, it is important to
look at different levels of decision-making. These are operating, administrative and strategic
decision making levels
Decision Applications (for example) Decided by
Routine maintenance and
Operating decisions Lower-level mgmt.
minor office equipment
Yearly maintenance and
Administrative decisions Middle-level mgmt
Balancing equipment
Strategic decisions Expansions, diversifications Top-level mgmt/Board
Chapter 2: Project Appraisal 35
Describe the phases of capital budgeting?
BBA (Professional) 2011
Formula:
NPV =
Where,
CFt = Cash flow in + periods or NCB
k = The cost of capital
CF0 = Cash flow in O period or Initial Investment
Advantages:
1. It recognizes the time value of money.
2. It considers the total benefits arising out of the proposal.
3. It is the best method for the selection of mutually exclusive projects.
4. It helps to achieve the maximization of shareholders wealth.
Limitations
1. It is difficult to understand and calculate.
2. It needs the discount factors for calculation of present values.
3. It is not suitable for the projects having different effective lives.
Accept/Reject criteria:
If the present value of cash inflows is more than the present value of cash outflows, it would be
accepted. If not, it would be rejected.
Define NPV. What are the limitations of NPV? BBA (Professional) 2011
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
In the modern world, because of the rapid development of industry, pollution has reached
alarming proportions. There are various factors like government regulations and pressure from
consumers, local people and investors, which force the firm to act in a more environment-friendly
38 Project Management
manner. Therefore, location of the project, type of technology to be used, and method of effluent
disposal are decided only after taking these factors into consideration.
Define technical analysis. BBA (Professional) 2012
1. The value of a firm can be expressed as the sum of the present value of projects in place as well
as the net present value of prospective projects:
Value of a firm = +
2. When a firm terminates an existing project which has a negative NPV based on its expected
future cash flows, the value of the firm increases by that amount. Likewise, when a firm
undertakes a new project that has a negative NPV, the value of the firm decreases by that amount.
3. When a firm divests itself of an existing project, the price at which the project is divested
affects the value of the firm. If the price is greater/lesser than the present value of the anticipated
cash flows of the project the value of the firm will increase/ decrease with the divestiture.
4. When a firm takes on a new project with a positive NPV, its effect on the value of the firm
depends on whether its NPV is in line with expectation.
5. When a firm makes an acquisition and pays a price in excess of the present value of the
expected cash flows from the acquisition it is like taking on a negative.
Explain the properties of NPV. BBA (Professional) 2007, 2012
DISSIMILARITIES
1. UNIDO method also emphasis calculation of financial profitability of market prices along
with SCBA but this is not so done in case of Little-Mirrlees method.
2. Little-Mirrlees method measures cost and benefit in terms of international currency that is in
border price or world price in $. UNIDO approach measure costs and benefits in terms of
domestic currency.
3. In case of Little-Mirrlees approach measures cost and benefit in terms of uncommitted social
income. On the other hand in UNIDO method it measures the same in terms of domestic
consumption.
4. UNIDO approach focuses efficiency, saving and redistribution of income stage by stage while
Little-Mirrlees approach considers the same in totality.
Briefly explain the similarities and dissimilarities UNIDO between LM approach .
BBA (Professional) 2007,2009, 2011, 2013, 2014
2.35 EXTERNALITIES
DEFINITION
Externalities are the costs and benefits that accrue to groups not targeted as beneficiaries of the
project. They are not deliberated created by the project sponsor but are an incidental outcome of
legitimate economic activity. They are beyond the control of the persons who are affected by it.
CHARACTERISTICS
Externalities may affect the country's objective either positively or negatively. The characteristics
of externalities can be summarized as under:
They are not created by the project sponsor deliberately, but they are the incidental outcomes of
the project.
Their effect may be either beneficial or harmful to the society.
Irrespective of whether beneficial or harmful, the externalities are beyond the control of those
who are benefited/affected by them.
They are sometimes difficult to identify and almost always difficult to measure.
EXAMPLES
Let us consider some examples.
1. A multi-purpose river valley project may result in preventing flooding of areas This benefit is
incidental to the project.
2. The approach roads made by a company may improve the transport system of an area
3. Training of employees may enhance their skills.
4. A school set up by a company max periodic education for the children of the locals.
5. A river valley project results in the submergence of farmlands.
6. A new airport in the vicinity causes noise pollution.
7. A river valley project may cause formation of mosquito breeding grounds
46 Project Management
EFFECTS IN EVELUTION OF A PROJECT
We may use the following as measures of benefits or costs:
1 The value of flood prevention may be gauged in terms of the money saved by the government
that was earlier spent on flood relief every year.
2. The improvement of the transport system may result in saving of travelling time which can be
valued according to the hourly wages of the beneficiaries.
3. The benefit of training may be measured in terms of the increased wages that the trained
employee may get in alternative employment because of his improved skills.
4. The measure of the educational benefit to children may be measured in terms of their increased
earning capability.
5. The submergence of farmland may be measured in terms of the yield lost per annum
6. The fall in rental value of buildings in the vicinity of the airport because of the noise caused by
the airport may be used as a measure for the cost of noise pollution.
7. The value of the increase in the inflow of anti-malarial drugs into the area may be a measure of
the cost of the mosquito breeding grounds caused by the river valley project.
As we observe, the external effects are intangible in nature and hence it is very difficult to value
their costs/benefits. They are valued by using indirect means wherever possible. In situations
where the effects of externalities cannot be measured in monetary terms, at least some form of
qualitative evaluation should be done and incorporated in the project analysis.
Explain how externalities can effect a project? BBA (Professional) 2012
Where Ct is the cash flow at the end of year t, and rt, is the discount rate for year t. In even more
general terms NPV is expressed as follows:
Chapter 2: Project Appraisal 49
Where Ct, is the cash flow at the end of year t, is the one period discount rate applicable to period
j, and n is the life of the project.
The discount rate may change over time for the following reasons:
(a) The level of interest rates may change over timethe term structure of interest rates sheds
light on expected rates in future,
(b) The risk characteristics of the project may change over time, resulting in changes in the cost
of capital,
(c) The financing mix of the project may vary over time, causing changes in the cost of capital.
Example: To illustrate, assume that you are evaluating a 5-year project involving software
development. We believe that the technological uncertainty associated with this industry leads to
higher discount rates in future.
Discuss the general formula of NPV (with an example) when discount rate vary over
time. BBA (Professional) 2013
2.40 PROBLEMS
BBA (PROFESSIONAL) 2010
Problem 1. Prepare a PRI by using 5-point scale and considering eight relevant factors with
appropriate weights. Limit the final score at 4.0 or at 10% lower or 10% higher than this figure.
Use imaginary figures where necessary.
Solution Calculation for least squares regression line and trend value
Period Sales xy x2 Trend Value
x y yc = 10600 + 390.91x
1 10,000 10,000 1 10990.91
2 12,000 24,000 4 11381.82
3 11,000 33,000 9 11772.73
4 13,000 52,000 16 12163.64
5 12,000 60,000 25 12554.55
6 15,000 90,000 36 12945.46
7 14,000 98,000 49 13336.37
8 12,500 100,000 64 13727.28
9 13,500 121,500 81 14118.19
10 14,500 145,000 100 14509.10
X = 55 Y =1,27,500 XY = 7,33,500 X2 = 385
Thus the least squares regression line is
Where,
Yc = a + bX
xy
x y
n
b=
x 2
X 2
n
Chapter 2: Project Appraisal 51
55 127500
733500
10
=
385
55
2
10
a=
y b x
n n
127500 55
= 390.91
10 10
yc = 10600 + 390.91x
Solution Calculation for least squares regression line and trend value
Period Sales xy x2 trend value
x y yc = 10600 + 390.91x
1 2000 2000 1 1811
2 2200 4400 4 2066
3 2100 6300 9 2320
4 2300 9200 16 2574
5 2500 12500 25 2828
6 3200 19200 36 3083
7 3600 25200 49 3337
8 4000 32000 64 3591
9 3900 35100 81 3845
10 4000 40000 100 4100
11 4200 46200 121 4354
12 4300 51600 144 4608
13 4900 63700 169 4862
14 5300 74200 196 5117
X = 105 Y =48,500 XY = 4,21,600 X2 = 1015
Thus the least squares regression line is
52 Project Management
Where,
Yc = a + bX
xy
x y
n
b=
x 2
X 2
n
105 48,500
4,21,600
14
=
1015
105
2
14
a=
y b x
n n
48500 105
= 254.28
14 14
= 1557
yc = 1557 + 254.28x
xy
x y
n
b=
x 2
X 2
n
45 350
1965
10
=
285
45
2
10
a=
y b x
n n
350 45
= 4.73
10 10
yc = 13.72 + 4.73x
If year X=2013, x=X-2001=2013-2001=12 then,
yc = 13.72 + 4.73x
= 13.72 + 4.73
= 70.48
337600 =285
Thus the least squares regression line is Yc = a + bX
Where,
xy
x y
n
b=
x 2
X 2
n
45 66900
337600
10
=
285
45
2
10
a=
y b x
n n
66900 45
= 443.03
10 10
yc = + x
So, The least squares regression line for the data given is, yc = 13.72 + 4.73x
Fx+1=Fx+ ex
0 5,100 4,697 403 F1=4,697+0.2(403) = 552.0
1 5,200 5,140 60 F2=5,140+0.2(60) = 5152
2 6,200 5,583 617 F3 =5,583+0.2(617) = 5,706.4
3 5,300 6,026 -726 F4 =6,026+0.2(-726) = 5,880.8
4 5,400 6,469 -1,069 F5 =6,469+0.2(-1,069) = 6,255.2
5 7,000 6,912 88 F6 =6,912+0.2(88) = 6,929.6
6 7,300 7,355 -55 F7 =7,355+0.2(-55) = 7,245
7 8,200 7,798 402 F8 =7,798+0.2(402) = 7,878.4
8 8,500 8,241 259 F9=8,241+0.2(259) = 8,292.8
9 8,700 8,684 16 F10 =8,684+0.2(6) = 8,685.2
1 5,000 6 7,000
2 5,500 7 7,500
3 6,000 8 8,000
4 5,500 9 8,400
5 6,500 10 9,000
Find the least squares regression line for the data given.
Solution Calculation for least squares regression line and trend value
Period Sales xy x2 trend value
x y yc = 5673.33 + 212.12x
1 5000 5000 1 5885.45
2 5500 1100 4 6097.57
3 6000 18000 9 6309.69
4 5500 22000 16 6521.81
5 6500 32500 25 6733.93
6 7000 42000 36 6946.05
7 7500 52500 49 6946.05
8 8000 64000 64 7370.29
9 8400 75600 81 7582.41
10 9000 81000 100 7794.53
56 Project Management
X = 55 Y =68400 XY = 393700 X2 = 385
Thus the least squares regression line is
Where,
Yc = a + bX
xy
x y
n
b=
x 2
X 2
n
55 68400
393700 -
10
=
385
55
2
10
a=
y b x
n n
68400 55
= 212.12
10 10
= 5673.33
yc = 5673.33 + 212.12x
Provision 10,50,000
10, 00,000+10, 00,000 5%)
Cash 16,50,000
10,00,000+6,50,000+10,00,000 20%
Receivable 40,00,000+2,00,000 42,00,000
Inventories 65,00,000+5,00,000 70,00,000
Working Notes:
Items Calculation Amount
Tk
Increase in secured loan 10,00,000-5,00,000 5,00,000
Increase in current liability 3,00,000
60,00,00 5%
60 Project Management
Increase in provision 50,000
10,00,000 5%
Increase in working capital 5,00,000+2,00,000 7,00,000
Net surplus 68,50,000-62,00,000 6,50,000
Reserves & Surplus (Opening +Retained earnings) =40,00,000+5,00,000 45,00,000
Secured loan (Opening+Additiona1-repayment)=40,00,000+10,00,000- 5,00,000 45,00,000
Current liability 60, 00,000+60, 00,000 5% 63,00,000
Provision 10,50,000
10, 00,000+10, 00,000 5%)
Cash 16,50,000
10,00,000+6,50,000+10,00,000 20%
Receivable 40,00,000+2,00,000 42,00,000
Inventories 65,00,000+5,00,000 70,00,000
Unicom Ltd.
Projected Balance Sheet
Liability Amount Assets Amount
Tk. Tk.
Share capital (Opening) 50,00,000 Fixed asset 1,10,00,000
Reserves 45,00,000 Investment 5,00,000
Secured loan 45.00,000 Current asset:
Unsecured loan(Opening) 30,00,000 Cash 16,50,000
Current liability 63,00.000 Receivable 42,00,000
Provision 10,50,000 Inventories 70,00,000
2,43.50,000 2,43.50,000
Working Notes:
Items Calculation Amount
Tk
Increase in secured loan 10,00,000-5,00,000 5,00,000
Increase in current liability 3,00,000
60,00,00 5%
62 Project Management
Increase in provision 50,000
10,00,000 5%
Increase in working capital 5,00,000+2,00,000 7,00,000
Net surplus 68,50,000-62,00,000 6,50,000
Reserves & Surplus (Opening +Retained earnings) =40,00,000+5,00,000 45,00,000
Secured loan (Opening+Additiona1-repayment)=40,00,000+10,00,000- 5,00,000 45,00,000
Current liability 60, 00,000+60, 00,000 5% 63,00,000
Provision 10,50,000
10, 00,000+10, 00,000 5%)
Cash 16,50,000
10,00,000+6,50,000+10,00,000 20%
Receivable 40,00,000+2,00,000 42,00,000
Inventories 65,00,000+5,00,000 70,00,000
=
= .10+0.0992
=.1992=19.92%
IRR of project Q =
=
= .05+0.0472
=.0972=9.72%
(ii) Project P should be accepted because its IRR is much higher then project Q.
(ii) Table showing NPV profile for projects at different discount rates
Projects Five Star Seven Star
PV of NCB PV of NCB
Discount rates 25% 15% 5% 25% 15% 5%
NPV -241920 97020 694720 -37120 258290 651510
Construction of NPV profile at different discount rates
Five Star Seven Star
IRR = IRR =
= =
= .15+0.0286 = .15+0.0874
=.1786=17.86% =.2374=23.74%
IRR =
=0
= 0.05+0.0635
=0.1135=11.35%
(iii) Table showing NPV profile for projects LDP at different discount rates
PV of NCB
Discount rates 20% 13% 5%
NPV -241920 97020 694720
IRR = IRR =
= =
= .20+0.0305 = .20+0.0368
=.2305=23.05% =.2368=23.68%
= 14.12 years
+0.0586
586
5.86%
Solution:
Chapter 2: Project Appraisal 71
(A) Each installment should be paid in to Bangladesh House Building Finance Corporation,
PV
Instalment
1 1
r r r
mn
m m 1 m
10,00,000
1 1
1230
.12 .12 .12
1
12 12 12
10,00,000
1 1
0.01 0.011.01 360
10,00,000
Tk.10286.13 Ans.
97.218331
(A) Each installment should be paid in to Trust Bank,
PV
Instalment
1 1
r r r
mn
m m 1 m
5,00,000
1 1
1215
.12 .12 .12
1
12 12 12
5,00,000
1 1
0.01 0.011.01 180
5,00,000
Tk.6000.84 Ans.
83.321664
BBA (PROFESSIONAL) 2014 (MODIFIED)
Problem 19 International Cyber Net Ltd. is determining the cash-flows for a project involving
replacement of an old machine by a new machine. The old machine bought a few years ago has a
book value of Tk. 400,000 and it can be sold to realize a post-tax salvage value Tk.500,000. It has
a remaining life of five years after which its net salvage value is expected to be Tk. 160/000. It is
being depreciated annually at a rate of 15 percent under the written down value method. The net
working capital required for the old machine is Tk. 400,000. The new machine costs
Tk.1,600,000. It is expected to fetch a net salvage value of Tk.800,000 after 5 years
when it will no longer be required the depreciation rate applicable to it is 15 percent under the
72 Project Management
written down value method. The net working capital required for the new machine is
Tk.500,000. The new machine is expected to bring a saving of Tk.25,143 annually in
manufacturing costs (other than depreciation). The tax rate applicable to the firm is 30 percent
Solution:
Cash Flows for a Replacement Project
Years (Tk. In000)