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Hazard Mitigation Plan in Case of a volcanic eruption of Cayambe

Alejandro Sengs, Catalina Gordillo, Andrea Gordillo


Yachay Tech Urcuqu - 2017

1. Introduction

Cayambe Volcano is a massive composite stratovolcano complex located in the


Cayambe - Coca Ecological Reserve at 40 miles northeast of Quito, the capital of Ecuador.
This complex covers an area of 24 km East - West, and 18 km to the North - South direction.
The mountain is composed of successive lava domes, including some that spewed lava flows
that reached the lower slopes. In addition, it is the third highest volcano in Ecuador (5790 m),
and it is the unique point on the Equator that is covered with snow. This volcano has an ice
cap with an area of 22 km2 approximately, and a thickness between 30 and 50 m at the top.
And it is one of the most dangerous glaciers in Ecuador to climb due to very active glaciers,
crevasses and avalanches.

Figure 1. Map of Cayambe zone from google maps that shows the Cayambe coca Ecological Reserve
and Cayambe Volcano.

A western basal volcano, Old Cayambe, comprised mainly of lava flows. It is presently
extinct and shows evidence of intense glacial erosion.
2. Definitions

2.1. Hazard
Hazards are threatening events, capable of producing damage to the physical and
social space where they take place not only at the moment of their occurrence, but on a long-
term basis due to their associated consequences. When these consequences have a major
impact on society and/or infrastructure, they become natural disasters (Alcntara, 2001).

2.2. Disaster
A disaster is a sudden, calamitous event that seriously disrupts the functioning of a
community or society and causes human, material, and economic or environmental losses that
exceed the communitys or societys ability to cope using its own resources. Though often
caused by nature, disasters can have human origins (IFRC, 2017). A disaster occurs when a
hazard impacts on vulnerable living beings.

2.3. Mitigation Plan


Mitigation is a plan to reduce the probability and/or impact of an adverse risk event to be
within acceptable limits, adopting less complex processes, conducting more tests, or choosing
a more stable supplier. Mitigation may require prototype development to reduce the risk of
scaling up from a bench - scale model of a process or product. Where it is not possible to
reduce probability, a mitigation response might address the risk impact by targeting linkages
that determine severity (ANSI/PMI, 2008).

2.4. Risk
According to the definition of the Society Risk Analysis, risk is the potential for the
realization of unwanted consequences of a decision or an action. In other words, a risk is the
probability of harm if someone or something that is vulnerable is exposed to a hazard. Risk is
defined by four parameters: a probability, level of severity, time period, and location.

2.5. Vulnerability
Vulnerability can be defined as the diminished capacity of an individual or group to
anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural or man-made hazard.
Vulnerability may also vary in its forms: poverty, for example, may mean that housing is
unable to withstand an earthquake or a hurricane, or lack of preparedness may result in a
slower response to a disaster, leading to greater loss of life or prolonged suffering ( IFRC,
2017).

2.6. Preparedness
Preparedness refers to measures taken to prepare for and reduce the effects of disasters. That
is, to predict and, where possible, prevent disasters, mitigate their impact on vulnerable
populations, and respond to and effectively cope with their consequences (IFRC, 2017).
2.7. Resilience
Resilience is that ineffable quality that allows some people to be knocked down by life and
come back stronger than ever. Rather than letting failure overcome them and drain their
resolve, they find a way to rise from the ashes (Knaus, 2016).

3. Historical Background
Even if it doesnt look that way, Cayambe Volcano is much more active than previously
believed. Its activity during the past 4000 years has been mainly characterized by lava dome
extrusions, dome collapses, and pyroclastic flows. The numerous ash and lapilli layers in the
peat bog document at least 21 eruptive events during the past 4000 years, grouped into three
main eruptive periods of activity of 300, 800, and 900 years duration. The last period,
corresponding to four recent pyroclastic flow units observed on the north-northeast flank,
probably has not ended, as implied by the 1785-1756 eruption. The recent pyroclastic flows
descended into uninhabited areas, and tephra fell mainly on the upper slopes of Nevado
Cayambe. Given the summit topography, products of future eruptions will probably have a
similar distribution and will not generate significant hazards for the inhabited areas west of
the volcano. Nevertheless, a large eruption near the summit would melt ice and snow,
resulting in mudflows, some of which would certainly move toward the town of Cayambe
and adjacent inhabited areas, creating a serious hazard for more than 30000 people
(Samaniego, 1997).

3.1. Volcanic Activity


The most recent register of activity includes 18 to 20 eruptions in the last 4000 years.
1785-86, 1700, 1590, 1570, 1440, 1290, 1270, 1040, 880, 260 AD, 200 AD, 170 AD, 10 AD,
180 BC, 230 BC, 260 BC, 460 BC, 510 BC, 560 BC, 1300 BC, 1650 BC, 1800 BC.
The last moderate Cayambe Volcanos eruption known as a violent event was reported in
1785 and 1786. It was a sub glacial eruption that has produced the moderate ash chambers
in Cayambe and the same termination with a lava flow or a lahar in 1786.
Finally, in the last years Ecuador's Institute of Geophysics (IGEPN) has reported increased
seismicity at the Cayambe volcano. The heightened activity may indicate the volcano will
become increasingly active over the coming weeks or months. The seismicity at the Cayambe
volcano started to increase on June 5, 2016. A seismic swarm of over 2 300 earthquakes was
recorded by the end of the month, according to Volcano Discovery. The volcano-tectonic
quakes were concentrated in the northeastern part of the volcano and were probably induced
by a deep magma intrusion that put pressure and caused rock fracturing.

4. Current Events

4.1. Annual Report


The Cayambe Volcano continues with a seismic activity since December 2016. This
activity is characterized volcano tectonic earthquakes (fracture) and fluid
movements located between 2 and 8 km under the summit.
Climbers have reported that the levels of sulfur smells have reduced.
On March there was an increase of seismic activity. IGPN has registered earthquakes
of magnitude 2.9.

4.2. Possible Scenarios


Until now, it is possible to see that Cayambe Volcano not only represents volcanic hazards,
but also seismic. Then one of the possible scenarios is that there is a risk of a seismic swarm
of distal volcano tectonic events. Those can seriously affect surrounding areas, specially, in
those places near to the system of faults Chingual.

Chingual

Fig 2. Registered events near to Cayambe Volcano since June 2016, the blue circle represents the
system of fault Chingual. Picture taken from I-G EPN.

In addition, it is also possible that a little phreatic eruption happens. It could form a small
eruptive column with a fall of ballistic blocks near to the crater, and a fall of ash.
And the other event could be a little magmatic eruption; in this case, the eruptive column
could be bigger, and the fall of ash and lapilli could reach populated areas such as Cayambe,
Ayora, Olmedo and Pesillo. It could also create small lahars and a new lava dome.
According to Instituto Geofsico, these events could happen in a medium term.

5. Potential Hazards

5.1. Pyroclastic Flow


Pyroclastic flows are fluidized masses of rock fragments and gases that move rapidly in
response to gravity. They can form when an eruption column collapses, or as the result of
gravitational collapse or explosion on a lava dome or lava flow (Francis, 1993 and Scott,
1989). The pyroclastic flow can be very hot, and this can incinerate, burn, and asphyxiate
people.

5.2. Volcanic Ash


Volcanic Ash is defined as very small solid particles that are blown into the air from a
volcano during an eruption. Volcanic ash could have sizes from powder-size to sand-size
particles. The term is used for the material while it is in the air, after it falls to the ground, and
sometimes after it has been lithified into rock. Volcanic Ash has a big impact on human
health. People who are exposed to ash can suffer serious respiratory diseases such as throat
irritation, coughing, bronchitis, among others.

5.3. Lava Flows


Lava flows are streams of molten rock that pour or ooze from an erupting vent. Lava is
erupted during either nonexplosive activity or explosive lava fountains. The speed at
which lava moves across the ground depends on several factors, including type of lava
erupted and its viscosity; steepness of the ground over which it travels; whether the lava
flows as a broad sheet, through a confined channel, or down a lava tube; and rate of lava
production at the vent ( USGS, 2016).
Everything in the path of an advancing lava flow will be knocked over, surrounded, buried, or
ignited by the extremely hot temperature of lava. Lava flows are the least hazardous of all
processes in volcanic eruptions.

5.4. Ballistic Blocks


Ballistic projectiles are rocks that are erupted by the volcano into the air. These blocks and
bombs travel like cannonballs and usually land within 2km of the vent (but can travel as far
as 5km, or even further, if the eruption is very explosive). Blocks have been ejected from
hydro magmatic craters at velocities ranging from less than 100 m/s to nearly 250 m/s (Self
and others, 1980; Lorenz, 1970).

5.5. Volcanic gases


Gases such as Sulphur dioxide (SO2) and hydrogen sulphide (H2S) are present in toxic
amounts close to the vent of an erupting volcano and may be present close to hot springs
around any live volcano. Further away from the vent they can become dissolved in
atmospheric clouds to produce acid rain and mist which affect human and animal eyes and
respiratory systems and corrode metal building materials. One of the most common volcanic
gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), is not poisonous but nevertheless, it is extremely dangerous. It
is heavier than air and tends to accumulate in hollows in the ground, displacing the breathable
air. Since it is invisible and has no taste or smell, people and animals are unable to notice that
it is there and may suffocate (West Indies University, 2011).

5.6. Debris Avalanches


Debris avalanches are moving masses of rock and soil that occur when the flank of a
mountain or volcano collapses and slides downslope. As the moving debris rushes down a
volcano and into river valleys, it incorporates water, trees, bridges, buildings, and anything
else in the way. Debris avalanches may travel several kilometers before coming to rest, or
they may transform into more water-rich lahars, which travel many tens of kilometers
downstream (West Indies University, 2011).

5.7. Lahars
Lahars are one of the greatest volcanic hazards. They can bury complete villages. Lahars are
flows of water and tephra that have the consistency of wet concrete. They have a wide range
of velocities that depends on the channel width, channel slope, volume of the flow, and grain
size composition. When a lahar travels down valley, the high point of the lahar is usually
marked by the mudline it leaves on trees, valley walls, and buildings. Then lahars are
extremely dangerous especially to those living in valley areas near a volcano.

5.8. Earthquakes
An earthquake is the shaking of the surface of the Earth, resulting from the sudden release of
energy in the Earth's lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes can range in size
from those that are so weak that they cannot be felt to those violent enough to toss people
around and destroy whole cities (Wikipedia, 2017).

6. Analysis of the Population

6.1. Demography
According to the last population census in 2010, the Cayambe Canton has a total of 85,795
people of which 43,822 and 41,967 are women and men respectively. The growth rate in
2010 was 2, 29, and it does not follow a pattern.

Fig 3. Total of population and growth rate since 1950 until 2010. Graph taken from INEC
6.2. Distribution of population
Cayambe canton is divided in 8 parishes (3 urbans: Cayambe, Ayora and Juan Montalvo; 5
rural: Asczubi, Cangahua, Otn, Santa Rosa de Cusbamba and Olmedo).

Fig 4. Politic map of Cayambe that shows its principal divisions. Map taken from ESPE.

6.3. Socioeconomic
According to the Universidad Tcnica del Norte at the national level, poverty is a social
problem that according to the statistics it is said that unsatisfied basic needs are 60.6%;
approximately have grown by 8.46% in relation to the year 1990, while in the Canton of
Cayambe in relation to the statistics for the year 2010 shows that it has decreased
considerably, and at the cantonal level poverty has also decreased by 12%.
The principal activity that has permitted the growth of Cayambe is the floriculture. They have
won international claim with the big exportation of roses. In addition, the other principal
activities of Cayambe are agriculture and farming in rural areas, the trade and provision of
services in urban zones and the tourism (Cayambe Volcano).

6.4. Education
According to some organizations responsible for enhancing the education in Ecuador,
Cayambe presents 8 principal problems in the educational field.
Lack of 10 years of basic education in the schools of the Network.
Exclusion of children and adolescents from the regular educational system: especially
the first and eighth of basic.
Severe educational delay.
Difficulties in accompanying the educational process of children and adolescents,
because of the long work days of their parents.
Poor quality of education.
Local governments focus on infrastructure.
Education is considered a family problem.
Authorities do not consider education in their work plans.
This information is very worrying because it is an indicator that a big number of people could
ignore the risks of having an active volcano over their heads.

7. Analysis of the zone in case of a volcanic eruption

7.1. Affected Zones

Fig 5. Map of risks in case of a


volcanic eruption. Map taken from
SGR.

Cayambe Volcanic Hazards

Pyroclastic Flows Greatest danger


Pyroclastic Flows Medium danger
Pyroclastic Flows - Less Danger
Lahars Greatest danger
Lahars - Less danger

The principal affected zone by pyroclastic flows and Lahars is the all Olmedo parish. Olmedo
is a very organized parish that has 4 schools, 6 health centers and different recreational
zones such as parks, stadiums, among others. In case of a volcanic eruption, there is a big
risk of losing resources and infrastructure from a notable area around 351,24 Km2.

Also, it is important to mention that there is a big area that would be affected by ash falls,
since Cayambe Volcano until the North of Quito.

Fig 6. Map of volcanic risks based on ash falls. Map taken from IGEPN.
Volcanic Ash

10 kg / m2 or 1cm of thickness
100 kg / m2 or 10 cm of thickness

Cayambe Volcano can seem a dormant volcano, but actually, it is active. Until 2016, The
Geophysics Institute has kept the alert of a volcanic hazard, but at the beginning of 2017 the
hazard decreased. Despite of that, authorities are designing a contingency plan because if a
volcanic eruption occurs, all the center of Cayambe would be at risk. As the map shows, the
principal risks would be pyroclastic flows, lahars, and ash falls. In addition, some studies
made by Instituto Geofsico identify three rivers that could be a biggest hazard because those
ones would be channels for lahars. The rivers are Guachal, Granobles, Blanco and Pisque,
all the surrounding areas such as La Remonta, 23 de Julio, La Florida 1 and Santa Laura de
Guachal have the greatest danger. It is a big problem because in these neighborhoods live
approximately 6 000 people. There, there are parks, bridges and houses that are located in
the river bank.

7.2. Principal losses


A volcanic Eruption represents large economic losses for all people in the canton because
there would be a big loss of infrastructure.
It could also mean a loss of culture and traditions because Cayambe is a place that has
tried to keep their roots. It is possible to see near to the volcano old churches, houses
that still having old designs constructed with adobe and straw, bridges made by the
man hand, and other things that represents the past, where any machine was used to
build amazing things.
Other losses are their farms and terrains replete of different vegetables and fruits. It is
very significant because farming and agriculture are the most important economic
activities for people who live in rural zones. All animals and plants would be
incinerating by lava, and residues would damage the soils.
Important animals and wild plants from the zone would be damaged by a volcanic
eruption. It is not only a loss for Cayambe, but also for all Ecuador because in the
Cayambe Coca Ecological Reserve there are many endemic species.
Finally, the worst scenery is to loss human lives. A volcanic eruption would kill
instantly people, and other ones who survive and live near to the damaged zone would
suffer serious consequences such as respiratory diseases, eye problems, and skin
irritation.

7.2. Transportation routes


As Cayambe is a little town, it does not count with many routes, but the two principal are
Buses to Oyacachi and Buses to Cangahua and hacienda Guachal. Both routes start from the
center of Cayambe.

Fig 7. Map of principal transportation routes in Cayambe. Pictures taken from google maps.
On the other hand the majority of the transports come from Quito and Ibarra. Now, talking
about which are the routes that would be the most affected, it is important to mention Buses
to Oyacachi that is a route inside the city, and La Esperanza and 24 de Junio Olmedo that
leave from Ibarra. Those transportation routes would be in serious problems because the
routes are in the area of greatest danger (fig 5.).

7. Prevention systems
Cayambe does not have a strong contingency plan, but since December 2016 authorities
started to worry about a possible volcanic eruption, so at the moment the SGR (Secretara de
Gestin de Riesgos), MSc. Eloy Basantes Director of Zonal 9 together with the Ministry of
Public Health, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Transport and Public Works, the
National Telecommunications Corporation (CNT), the Armed Forces, National Police,
Firefighters Cayambe, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Aquaculture and Fisheries
(MAGAP), Local Authorities have designed a contingency plan that contains all the
following points:
Access and distribution of quality water
Health services, sanitation and hygiene
Infrastructure
Provision of comprehensive care to the population
Integral security of the population
Productivity and livelihoods
Education, culture, heritage and environment
Strategic sectors

7.1. Interinstitutional resource coordination


At the moment, Cayambe has the following public organisms responsible for the good living
of people. Those centers would be the principal support for the Canton, in case of an
emergency.
1 Hospital
11 Health sub center
3 Health clinics
1 Fire station
5 Local policing units
It is important to emphasize that the Police in Cayambe has 111 police officers, 18 police car
and 21 motorcycles.

7.2. Assistance management


Cayambe is a little city that has not been prepared for an emergency. So, the principal
assistance management that they could use is from the most important organizations of social
assistance and emergency of Ecuador.
Then when the emergency happens, the maximum authority in Cayambe is in charge of
communicating with:
Table 1. Table of the disaster relief institutions of Ecuador and its respective telephone
number.

7.3. Recent implementations


The installation of electronic sirens of the Early Warning System (SAT) was started for
populations located near to Cayambe volcano. The equipment consists of eight speakers that
will be heard up to four kilometers. Also, it has a direct connection with ECU 911 and SGR.

7.4. Action in case of an emergency


So far, people should follow the general action plan of evacuation created by SGR for all
Ecuadorians wherever they are.

SUSPENTION
OF WORK
TYPE OF MEETING
EMERGENCY EVACUATION POINT
ALARM
RESUME OF
ACTION

SUSPENSION OF
WORK
ENERGY AND
GAS SUPPLY

COMMUNICATION
WITH THE
ORGANISMS OF
HELP
7.5. Description of evacuation routes
The route of evacuation is signposted according to the NTE INEN ISO 3864 1 with the
following signaling:

8. Current information

8.1. Priority
The priority is to reach directly to the areas that have been identified with some degree of
vulnerability in case of an eventual eruption of the volcano.
Unfortunately, people in Cayambe are not well informed, and they do not know yet what the
secure zones are or which the contingency plan is.

8.2. Survey
The Cayambe volcano is monitored to date with three seismographs to detect internal
overpressures and fluid movement; A GPS and inclinometers with the purpose of detecting
the deformation (swelling or deflation) in the flanks, which is related to the entrance or
expulsion of magma.

Fig 8. Map of the seismographs, inclinometer and GPS location. Taken from IGEPN
8.3. Situation of the Volcano

Volcano state: Active


Level of internal activity: Moderate
Level of superficial activity: Low
Seismicity: From Friday 30 June to Thursday 7 July the volcano had a
Average of 6 volcano-tectonic earthquakes per day (decreased), 9 earthquakes of long period
(decreased) and 2 hybrid events (decreased). This is lower than last week,
This represents five weeks in a row with relatively low activity.
Observations: There are no observations showing any change in the volcano's state.
Gases: The gas sensor (DOAS) that looks for a plume of volcanic gas on the volcano
recorded the same low gas levels as in recent weeks.

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Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge,


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