Background

Briefing:
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123 Cambodia: Hun Sen Struts ASEAN
Stage to What Effect?

Carlyle A. Thayer

November 13, 2017

During the ASEAN summit, Prime Minister Hun Sen is taking the opportunity to meet
leaders from around the world. There seem to be two kind of reactions: photographs
that show him separate from others are used to argue that he is isolated from others
due to an ongoing crackdown in Cambodia, while photographs that show him close
to other leaders (such as Trump and Trudeau) are used to argue that the
international community is welcoming towards him.
We request your analysis of the following issues:
Q1. Do you think this is an accurate observation? In what way can Hun Sen's brief
meetings with world leaders be used by either "side" to show that the international
community is active/passive with regards to recent political developments in
Cambodia?
ANSWER: Quite frankly Cambodia ranks low on the list of important countries
attending APEC and ASEAN-related meetings. This has more to do with Cambodia's
level of economic development and the paucity of any worthwhile initiatives by Hun
Sen to shore up regional peace and security. Hun Sen will be treated in accord with
protocol by ASEAN members as ASEAN did with the military regime in Myanmar.
Rather than dwell on fleeting photographs of Hun Sen chatting with Trump and
Trudeau, the focus should be on who Hun Sen will be meeting for substantial
bilateral sideline discussions. Neither Trump nor Trudeau would raise human rights
in Cambodia. Trump has never mentioned the issue to my knowledge and I wonder if
the State Department has even briefed him. Hun Sen will put his own spin on
photographs. The real issue in the detail: has Hun Sen been able to advance
Cambodia's national interest in any substantive way. From my vantage point Hun
Sen appears reactive rather than proactive, quite a change of persona from his
assertiveness domestically
Q2. And lastly, do you think the international community should and is taking a
strong enough stance to show concern about recent developments?
ANSWER: Hun Sen's evisceration of democracy in Cambodia has been overtaken by
events in North Korea and the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar.
 2

The spotlight will eventually turn on Cambodia in the aftermath of the present round
of ASEAN-related summits in the Philippines. There is movement afoot to reconvene
the Paris Conference on Cambodia as the mechanism to address Cambodia's
deteriorating domestic political situation.
A spokesperson for Australias Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Philip Green
stated: Australia would carefully consider any request by the UN Secretary General
for consultations with members of the Paris Peace Conference." This initiative is a
long shot, however.
As a UN accredited electoral observer for UNTAC-sponsored elections in May 1993, I
unequivocally support a unified and strong stance by likeminded democracies who
put such effort in a comprehensive peace settlement. Cambodian's later adopted a
state Constitution that included five references to a liberal multiparty democracy,
including a clause that states it cannot be done away with.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia: Hun Sen Struts ASEAN Stage to
What Effect?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 13, 2017. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.