15/09/2017

MUA MNH
CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
KQKD ang ci thin n tng

Khuyn ngh nh gi
Gi mc tiu 18,538
Gi ng ca 13,300 Chng ti khuyn ngh Mua Mnh c phiu TNG vi gi mc tiu
Upside 39.39% 18,538 ng/cp (+39.39% so vi mc gi ng ca ngy
15/09/2017) da trn 2 phng php nh gi l FCFF v PE.
D liu th trng
S lng cp (tr cp) 41.12 Catalyst
Vn ha (t ) 547
Gi cao nht 52 tun 16,100 Ngnh Dt may Vit Nam c nhng chuyn bin tch cc,
Khi lng giao dch bnh qun 10 8T2017, xut khu t 16.86 t USD, +8.2%yoy (8T2016 ch t
428,986
ngy (cp)
5.5%yoy v c nm 2016 ch t 4.6%yoy)

C ng ln (%) Lun im u t
Nguyn Vn Thi 19.33%
Nguyn c Mnh 6.08%
Tp trung n hng cho Decathlon v TCP (2 khch hng ang
Rusdy Pranata 5.50% m rng th trng bn l ton cu), ch ng gim n hng vi
khch hng nh
Din bin gi
1M 3M 1Y
Xut n hng u tin vi Levis trong thng 10 11/2017, mc
TNG 15% 10% 12% d gi tr khng cao nhng nh du bc chuyn mnh sang
VN-Index 5% 6% 23% phng thc FOB ng ngha (bin li nhun 25% so vi mc
17% nh hin ti)
Din bin gi
S d hng tn kho ti 30/06/2017 mc cao nht trong lch s,
KQKD thng 7 v 8 ci thin tt, trin vng LN tng trng n
tng trong Q3/2017.
Ri ro u t
nh hng ca chnh sch BHXH mi, chi ph BHXH +20%yoy
S dng t l n by ti chnh cao nht nhm Dt may nim yt
Chui bn l thi trang TNG hin ang l
Cc ch tiu ti chnh 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E

Thc hin DTT (t ) 1,180 1,377 1,924 1,888 2,553

Lng Thu Hng % tng trng -2.39% 16.67% 39.71% -1.88% 35.25%
huonglt@bsc.com.vn Tng ti sn 961 1,198 1,614 1,846 2,275
Vn ch s hu 212 262 428 521 625
Vn L (t ) 135 163 295 343 411
LN gp (t ) 218 262 349 333 450
LN sau thu 14 53 71 81 111
Bin LN gp 18.48% 19.03% 18.14% 17.65% 17.63%
ROE 6.64% 20.28% 16.66% 15.58% 17.76%
ROA 1.46% 4.44% 4.42% 4.40% 4.88%

BSC Research Trang|1|

15/09/2017
CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
Tng quan v TNG
TNG l doanh nghip may xut khu vi t trng n hng FOB chim khong 60% tng
gi tr n hng, trong giai on t 2010 2016, doanh thu ca TNG tng trng vi
CAGR t 20%, cao hn so vi mc 13.4% ca gi tr xut khu ton ngnh Dt may Vit
Nam. Doanh thu ca TNG tng t 623 t ng (2010) ln mc 1,888 t ng (2016).
Bin LNG ca TNG trung bnh t trn 17.5%, mc cao nht so vi cc doanh nghip dt
may ti Vit Nam. Tuy nhin bin LN t hot ng kinh doanh / DTT ch t 5.03% vn
thp hn trung bnh ngnh hin l 6.60% (nhm so snh gm TCM, GMC, VGG, TVT, PPH).
V Nng lc sn xut may, TNG ang c 6 chi nhnh may, tng cng sut 230 chuyn may,
hot ng 88% cng sut, trong 5 chi nhnh phc v cho xut khu l Vit c, Vit
Thi, i T, Sng Cng, Ph Bnh, sn phm l o Jackets qun Chino; v chi nhnh Thi
trang TNG hin c 8 chuyn may, 22 ca hng thi trang, ph rng cc tnh min Bc v
mt s tnh ti min Nam (Cn Th, Hu Giang, Kin Giang, Tp. HCM).

TNG qua cc nm
2,500 25%
t ng

2,000 20%

1,500 15%

1,000 10%

500 5%

- 0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Doanh s thun TTS Bin LNG Bin LN kinh doanh

Ngun: BSC Research, BCTC TNG

Kt qu kinh doanh 8 thng 2017 tng trng n tng. TNG va cng b KQKD thng
8 vi doanh thu t 354.56 t ng (+57.25%yoy), ly k 8T2017, DTT t 1,635 t ng
(+25.67%yoy), bin LNG ca 8T2017 t 16.94%, c gim nh so vi mc 17.03% ca cng
k 2016. ng ch l LNST thng 8/2017 t 19 t ng (+59%yoy), t sut li nhun t
5.39% (cao hn nhiu so vi mc trung bnh 3.96% ca 3 nm gn nht).
BSC cng lu , thng trong chu k 1 nm ca TNG, Qu 2 v Qu 3 l 2 qu s c KQKD
t bin do c im n hng xut khu dn v gia nm, Qu 4 v Qu 1 s c LN thp
hn 2 qu cn li.
(1) K vng t n hng vi Levis Bc chuyn mnh sang phng thc FOB ng
ngha
Hin nay t l n hng FOB v CMT ang chim khong 60 40% c cu Doanh thu ca
TNG, mc tiu trong tng lai TNG s y t trng FOB chim t 70 80% Doanh thu, gp
phn ci thin bin li nhun cho doanh nghip.

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15/09/2017
CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
Hai khch hng ln nht ca TNG l Decathlon v The Childrens Place (TCP) ang chim
khong 50% gi tr n hng nm 2017, trong n hng Decathlon l 45 triu USD
(+170%yoy) v TCP l 20 triu USD (+240%yoy). Nguyn nhn ca s tng mnh vi 2
khch hng ny l do nm 2017 TNG ch ng gim n hng t nhng i tc nh v
nhn thm n hng t 2 i tc. D kin trong nm 2018, gi tr n hng vi Decathlon
s tng 10%yoy v 35%yoy vi TCP.
Vi cc n hng ca Decathlon, TNG thc hin may o jacket, qun short v o th thao,
t l hng FOB v CMT ang l 50 50. Decathlon l chui bn l th thao ln nht
Th gii ca Php. Nm 2016, doanh thu ca Decathlon t 10 t EUR, tng 12%yoy nh
m thm 164 ca hng mi trn ton cu, trong c 5 nc ln u thm nhp l
Mexico, Ivory Coast, Singapore, Malaysia v Slovenia (nm 2015 Decathlon m mi 140
ca hng). Tnh n ht nm 2016, Decathlon ang hin din ti 28 quc gia vi 1,176
ca hng, trong top 3 nc c ph ln nht l Php (301 ca hng), Trung Quc
(214 ca hng) v Ty Ban Nha (149 ca hng). Nu xt v like for like sales growth th
nm 2016 t 4.4%, thp hn t l tng trng ca nm 2015 (5%) v 2014 (6%). Trong
nm 2017, Decathlon tip tc m rng chui bn l ti Trung Quc (Hi Nam, Sn Ty v
Cn Minh) nh li sng rn luyn sc khe ang nhn rng ti Trung Quc, bn cnh
Decathlon cng ang hng ti th trng Hongkong, Australia v Canada.
Vi cc n hng ca TCP, t l n hng FOB ang l 100%, TNG thc hin may o jacket,
vy v qun. The Childrens Place (TCP) l chui bn l thi trang tr em ln nht ti Bc
M. Cng ty thit k, thu sn xut, bn hng di thng hiu The Childrens Place,
Place v Baby Place. Tnh n ngy 29/07/2017, TCP ang vn hnh 1,026 ca hng
ti Hoa K, Canada v Puerto Rico, bn trc tuyn ti th trng Hoa K, Canada v c hn
161 im phn phi quc t, vn hnh bi 7 i tc nhng quyn ti 19 quc gia v
Tmall (mt trang web bn trc tuyn ca Alibaba Group cho cc th trng gm Trung
Quc i lc, Hongkong, Macau v i Loan). Theo BCTC bn nin 2017 ca TCP (kt thc
29/07/2017), doanh thu thun t hn 810 triu USD (+2.47%yoy), do cc chi ph c
tit gim trong k nn LNTT bn nin t 45.2 triu USD (+24%yoy).
Bt u xut n hng u tin vi Levis trong thng 10 v 11/2017
TNG cho bit n hng u tin vi Levis c gi tr 400,000 USD s xut xng trong
thng 10 v 11/2017, trc Levis c cc bc nh gi nh xng v kim tra mu
hng th vi TNG. Hin doanh nghip cng ang xc tin tip tc k n hng vi
Levis, mc tiu gi tr t 1 triu USD trong nm 2018.
im khc bit gia Levis v 2 i tc ln (Decathlon v TCP) l TNG s trc tip tm kim
nguyn liu phc v sn xut, trong khi hin ti, ngun nguyn liu s do i tc ch nh
ngun mua (Thng Hi, i Loan, Hn Quc) hoc i tc t cung cp TNG sn xut.
Do , bin li nhun gp vi Levis s cao hn so vi cc n hng hin ti, d kin mc
bin c th t ti 25% (bin LNG hin ti vi FOB ca TNG khong 17%).

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15/09/2017
CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
BSC cng lu , mc d n hng vi Levis s m ra bc ngot mi cho doanh nghip
khi thc s hot ng theo phng thc FOB ng ngha, nhng im kh khn nht l
vic tm kim ngun nguyn liu c cht lng p ng tiu chun v gi c hp l c
th cho hng vi gi cnh tranh. Ngoi ra, khu dch v v quan h vi i tc cng phi
y mnh thng xuyn.
Hin ti TNG m vn phng i din ti M (4 nhn vin) pht trin th trng M
v duy tr quan h vi Levis. Vi khu mua hng, doanh nghip cng ang xc tin m
vn phng ti Thng Hi, nhim v chnh l mua nguyn liu phc v sn xut.
i nt v Levis, sn phm ca Levis c bn ti 50,000 im bn l ti 110 nc. Nm
2016 doanh thu ca Levis t 4.6 t USD (+3%yoy nu loi b bin ng t gi), bin LNG
t 51.2% cao hn so vi mc 50.5% ca cng k 2015. LNST 2016 t 291 triu USD
(+40%yoy).
(2) Hng tn kho mc cao nht trong lch s, tn hiu lc quan cho KQKD 2H2017
Nh phn tch trn, trong nm 2017, TNG ch ng ct gim n hng t i tc
nh v chuyn qua 2 i tc ln, n hng vi Decathlon l 45 triu USD (+170%yoy) v
TCP l 20 triu USD (+240%yoy). Theo BCTC 6T2017, doanh thu 1H t 998.84 t ng
(+17%yoy), bin li nhun gp l 17.52%, tng t cng k 2016. Li nhun thun t hot
ng kinh doanh trong 6T2017 t 50.21 t ng, chim 5.03% DTT, ci thin tng i
tt so vi t l 4.79% ca 6T2016. LNST 6T2017 t 41.67 t ng (+4.44%yoy), tng
ng EPS = 1,216 ng.
BSC cho rng tnh hnh hin ti ca TNG tng i kh quan, s d hng tn kho ti thi
im 30/06/2017 l 703.82 t ng, tng so vi s d 566 t ng (31/03/2017) v 488
t ng (30/06/2016); thm vo tnh hnh n hng ang ci thin tt so vi nm
trc, hin doanh nghip k n ht nm 2017, mt s khch hng k sang nm
2018.

Hng tn kho v LN t hot ng kinh doanh (t ng)

800.00 40.00
700.00 35.00
600.00 30.00
500.00 25.00
400.00 20.00
300.00 15.00
200.00 10.00
100.00 5.00
0.00 0.00

Li/l t hot ng kinh doanh (trc phi - ct) Hng tn kho (trc tri - ng)

Ngun: BCTC kim ton bn nin 2017 ca TNG

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15/09/2017
CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
D kin c nm 2017, DT s t khong 2,553 t ng (+35%), LNST t k hoch 111 t
ng (+37%yoy), EPS 2017 = 2,567 ng (gi nh trch 5% qu khen thng phc li).
V cng sut sn xut vn cn d a cho tng trng, hin ti TNG mi vn hnh khong
88% cng sut thit k, hot ng 202 chuyn may trn tng 230 chuyn may v 11,000
cng nhn. D kin nm 2018, TNG s tng thm 10 chuyn may, tng ng tng thm
500 cng nhn.
(3) Chui bn l thi trang TNG mc tiu ha vn trong nm 2017 2018
T thnh cng ca cc i tc vi chui bn l, TNG cng ang hng ti vic xy dng
thng hiu cho chui ca hng TNG. Nm 2016, TNG pht hnh 200,000 c phiu hon
i sp nhp vi TNG Fashion. Li th thng mi pht sinh l 16.59 t ng, nm
2016 doanh nghip ghi nhn vo chi ph l 3.15 t ng. D kin phn cn li s c
ghi nhn trong 2 nm tip theo, nm 2017 TNG s ghi nhn khong 7 t ng vo chi ph,
phn b u trong 12 thng.
Tnh n ht nm 2016, TNG c 12 ca hng bn l, doanh thu c nm l 78 t ng. Nm
2017 c ly k 8 thng t gn 68 t ng vi 22 ca hng. Chng ti cho rng chui
thi trang cha thc s ci thin v doanh thu do cng ty ang trong qu trnh xy dng
thng hiu v h thng qun tr. c trong 8 thng 2017, chui thi trang ang l
khong 3 4 t ng, trong bao gm hn 4 t ghi nhn li th thng mi.
Chng ti cng lu ngnh kinh doanh hng thi trang c nhiu s khc bit so vi may
xut khu thng thng bi vic chn mu thit k, s lng sn phm sn xut s nh
hng n gi tr cng nh cht lng hng tn kho, bn cnh tay ngh ca cng nhn
cng yu cu cao hn so vi may xut khu.
(4) Ngnh Dt may Vit Nam ang c nhng du hiu tch cc hn so vi 2016
Theo thng k ca Tng cc Hi quan, trong 8 thng 2017, xut khu hng dt may Vit
Nam t 16.86 t USD, tng 8.2%yoy. Trong xut khu sang Hoa K t 8.16 t USD
(chim 48.4%) tng trng 7.3%yoy, sang EU t 2.47 t USD (+4.1%yoy) v sang Nht
Bn t 1.97 t USD (+5%yoy).
Chng ti cho rng Ngnh Dt may ang c nhng tn hiu phc hi khi so snh vi nm
2016, tng trng xut khu ca 8 thng 2016 ch t 5.5%yoy v c nm 2016 ch t
4.6%yoy, y l mc tng thp nht ca xut khu dt may tnh t nm 2010 n nay.

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15/09/2017
CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
Xut khu Dt may Vit Nam Tng trng XK Dt may

30 30.00%

25 23.70% 25.30%
25.00%

20 18.90%
20.00%

15 16.80%
15.00%

10
10.00%
9.10%
7.50% 8.20%
5
5.00% 4.60%
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 8T2017 0.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 8T2017
Tng Gi tr XK dt may VN (t USD) XK vo Hoa K (t USD)

Ngun: Tng cc Hi quan, BSC Research

Xt trong nhm Dt may nim yt, ch c GMC l c hot ng may xut khu gn ging
TNG nht bao gm o jackets v qun shorts. Cn li TCM chuyn v lnh vc may o thun
xut khu; VGG, TVT ch yu chim lnh nhm cng s v PPH chuyn v si dt
vi, qun o denim, qun ty, vest.
Bin LNG Bin LN HKD
M DT ROA ROE PE
TTS VCSH % yoy PB
CP 6T2017 6T2017 6T2016 6T2017 6T2016 6T2017 6T2017 T12M

TNG 2,254 556 999 17.00% 17.52% 17.69% 5.03% 4.79% 3.68% 14.92% 6.59 0.98
TCM 3,123 973 1,547 1.98% 16.37% 12.21% 6.96% 3.74% 5.86% 18.92% 8.57 1.62

GMC 844 298 710 1.73% 13.76% 15.91% 5.64% 7.94% 6.54% 18.53% 8.26 1.53
VGG 4,423 1,461 3,758 6.94% 12.29% 11.72% 5.89% 5.94% 8.79% 27.71% 5.82 1.61
TVT 1,770 661 1,305 17.25% 11.56% 12.76% 4.67% 4.98% 5.72% 16.49% 4.93 0.81
PPH 5,056 1,593 1,392 -8.58% 11.72% 14.94% 9.83% 14.14% 4.35% 14.59% 5.50 0.80

Ngun: BSC Research, n v: t ng

Theo , trong 1H2017 TNG cng vi TVT l doanh nghip c tng trng doanh thu cao
nht trong nhm so snh, t 17%yoy. Bin LNG ca TNG t 17.52%, mc cao nht so
vi cc doanh nghip cn li. Tuy nhin hiu qu li nhun ROA, ROE li tng i thp
so vi trung bnh ngnh do t l chi ph li vay v hot ng trn doanh thu cn cao.

Ti chnh Doanh nghip

S dng n by ti chnh cao nht trong nhm Dt may Vit Nam
Giai on t 2011 n 1H2017, tng N chim trung bnh khong 75% tng Ti sn ca
TNG v ang c xu hng iu chnh gim nh trong 3 nm tr li y. Trong , cc

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15/09/2017
CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
khon vay chu li sut, hin chim khong 63% tng Ti sn, mc tng i cao so vi
trung bnh ngnh.
So snh ti thi im 30/06/2017, ch s D/E ca TNG l 3.05x trong khi nhm cc doanh
nghip dt may Vit Nam cn li l TCM, GMC, VGG, TVT, PPH c D/E trung bnh ch l
1.98x (cao nht trong nhm so snh l TCM 2.21 v PPH l 2.17). Do , t l chi ph li
vay/DTT ca TNG trong 6T2017 cng mc tng i cao, khong 3.4%, trung bnh ca
nhm so snh l 1.53%.
Mc d vy, do hng li t hot ng xut khu nn c cu vn vay ca TNG ch yu l
USD, t trng khong 90% vi vay ngn hn v 75% vi vay di hn, li sut vay s li th
hn so vi vay vn VND trong bi cnh chnh sch t gi VND/USD ang c duy tr kh
n nh. BSC c tnh li sut trung bnh vay ngn hn ca TNG khong 4.45% v vay di
hn khong 6.5% (cho c tin VND v USD).

T trng vay n chu li sut ca TNG T trng Cp Li vay / DTT

80.00% 7.00%
6.37%
70.00% 6.31%
6.00%
60.00%
5.00%
50.00%
4.49% 4.54%
40.00% 3.56%
4.00%
3.66%
30.00% 3.40%
3.00% 2.95%
20.00%

10.00% 2.00%

0.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H2017 1.00%

Vay v N di hn / Tng ti sn 0.00%

Vay v N ngn hn / Tng ti sn 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1H2017

Ngun: BSC Research

Cc ch s hot ng mc trung bnh so vi ngnh Th gii
Nhn chung cc ch s hot ng ca TNG cha c ci thin r nt, c bit l nm 2016
khi ton ngnh Dt may Vit Nam gp kh khn do tnh trng b mt n hng v nhng
nc c nhn cng r hn. Nm 2016, vng quay hng tn kho ca TNG l 3.92, cha
thc s tt khi trung bnh ngnh Th gii l 4.10, cc doanh nghip Vit Nam cn li l
VGG t 9.64, TVT 4.93 v ch tt hn TCM 3.51. Vng quay khon phi thu ca TNG l
7.62, tt hn so vi trung bnh ngnh Th gii (6.49). Vng quay khong phi tr nm
2016 mc 10.51, tng ng trung bnh ngnh Th gii, tt hn so vi TCM (11.54)
v TVT (17.03), VGG c vng quay phi tr tt nht trong nhm doanh nghip dt may
Vit Nam, mc 6.61x.

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15/09/2017
CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
D bo KQKD & nh gi c phiu
D bo KQKD
Chng ti d bo nm 2017, DTT ca TNG s t 2,553 t (+35%yoy) do n hng nm
nay c ci thin tch cc so vi nm 2016. LNST 2017 t 111 t ng (+37%yoy) v hon
thnh k hoch nm, tng ng EPS 2017 = 2,567 ng (gi nh trch 5% qu khen
thng phc li).
Do hin ti TNG ang vn hnh khong 88% cng sut, hot ng 202 chuyn may trn
tng 230 chuyn nn trin vng tng trng s vn tip tc khi n hng gia tng. V
nm 2018, khch hng xc nhn vi TNG cc n hng chi tit, gi tr c tnh tng
cng l 95 triu USD. Theo k hoch ca doanh nghip l cha c k hoch u t ln t
nay n nm 2019, BSC gi nh thn trng mi nm tng thm khong 10 chuyn may
cho nm 2018 2019 v tng thm 15 chuyn may cho nm 2020.
V bin LNG, vi k vng t n hng Levis s gip tng bin LNG cho TNG. BSC gi nh
thn trng n hng vi Levis t 1 triu USD nm 2018 (chim 1.07% doanh thu may
XK) v tm thi ch tng ln mc 5 triu USD nm 2020 (chim 4% doanh thu may XK ca
TNG), hin ti TNG ang xc tin thnh lp vn phng ti Thng Hi mua nguyn liu
sn xut. Do , bin li nhun t hot ng may xut khu s tng t 16.91% (2017) ln
17.37% (2020), BSC d bo bin LNG mc rt thn trng.
Chi ph bn hng s chim t trng ln hn trong tng doanh thu so vi giai on trc
do TNG ang m rng chui ca hng thi trang, gi nh trung bnh chim khong 2.38%
DTT cho giai on 2017 2020. Chi ph QLDN s chim trung bnh khong 6.9% DTT, tng
t mc hin ti.
nh gi c phiu TNG
nh gi TNG chng ti s dng 2 phng php l FCFF v PE vi t trng mi phng
php l 50 50.
Phng php FCFF 2 giai on
Giai on 1 t 2017 2020 v giai on 2 l sau nm 2020
Xc nh beta thng qua beta trung bnh ngnh Th gii trong 5 nm l 0.78, s dng
phng php unleverage v leverage xc nh beta cho TNG.
Unlevered Beta = Levered Beta / (1 + ((1 Tax Rate) x (Debt/Equity))) = 0.59
Levered Beta = Unlevered Beta x (1 + ((1 Tax Rate) x (Debt/Equity))) = 1.75 (do D/E ca
TNG tng i cao)
Xc nh Total Equity Risk Premium
1, Market risk premium (tnh theo S&P500; tham kho Damodaran calculation) = 5.69%
2, Country risk premium ca Vit Nam (tnh theo phng php CDS, tham kho
Damodaran calculation Jan 2017) = 2.74%

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15/09/2017
CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
Total Equity Risk Premium = 5.69% + 2.74% = 8.43%
Chi ph vn bnh qun (WACC)
Equity Risk premium 8.43%
Rf 4.72%
beta 1.75
ke 19.49%
kd 5.22%
E/A 26.87%
D/A 73.13%
Tax rate 16%
WACC 8.45%
g 2.00%
Gi hp l cho 1 c phiu TNG = 17,827 ng
Phng php PE
EPS 2017 = 2,668
PE nh gi = 7.5x
Gi hp l cho 1 c phiu TNG = 19,250 ng
Tng hp 2 phng php
Gi hp l cho 1 c phiu TNG l 18,538 ng/cp, +39.39% so vi gi ng ca ngy
15/09/2017.

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CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
Ph lc
Phn tch nhy
Phn tch WACC
g
nhy 7.05% 7.55% 8.05% 8.55% 9.05% 9.55% 10.05%
-0.5% 12,662 9,317 6,364 3,736 1,384 (735) (2,653)
0.0% 15,900 12,124 8,816 5,895 3,297 970 (1,125)
0.5% 19,632 15,328 11,594 8,323 5,434 2,864 563
1.0% 23,981 19,021 14,765 11,071 7,836 4,979 2,438
1.5% 29,112 23,325 18,420 14,210 10,557 7,357 4,531
Gi c phn 2.0% 35,259 28,403 22,678 17,827 13,663 10,050 6,885
2.5% 42,756 34,485 27,704 22,041 17,243 13,124 9,550
3.0% 52,101 41,904 33,723 27,015 21,414 16,667 12,593
3.5% 64,076 51,152 41,064 32,972 26,336 20,796 16,100
4.0% 79,971 63,001 50,216 40,237 32,232 25,667 20,186
4.5% 102,089 78,731 61,943 49,295 39,423 31,503 25,008

Ngun: BSC d bo

Bng cn i k ton
T VN 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TI SN NGN HN 701.12 771.18 1,191.59 1,275.55 1,328.53 1,442.47
Tin v tng ng tin 56.46 11.78 59.96 67.52 57.02 74.70
Cc khon phi thu 263.35 265.93 525.23 503.34 497.47 562.82
Hng tn kho, rng 348.28 445.45 555.60 641.52 704.00 734.14
Ti sn lu ng khc 33.03 48.01 50.80 63.18 70.03 70.82
TI SN DI HN 912.52 1,075.05 1,083.86 1,051.10 1,028.45 1,027.44
Phi thu di hn 0.47 4.28 6.40 - - -
Ti sn c nh 734.56 900.91 878.03 888.66 909.41 919.28
GTCL TSC hu hnh 686.77 884.52 865.01 878.59 900.83 910.77
GTCL Ti sn thu ti chnh 8.35 5.67 3.45 1.61 0.09 -
GTCL ti sn c nh v hnh 39.44 10.72 9.57 8.45 8.49 8.51
Ti sn d dang di hn 157.32 105.45 129.82 95.44 50.74 40.50
Ti sn di hn khc 20.16 64.40 69.61 67.01 68.31 67.66
TNG CNG TI SN 1,613.65 1,846.22 2,275.45 2,326.65 2,356.98 2,469.91

N PHI TR 1,185.57 1,325.11 1,650.07 1,638.08 1,591.01 1,609.43

N ngn hn 912.02 1,011.01 1,261.71 1,299.72 1,302.65 1,371.06
N di hn 273.55 314.10 388.37 338.37 288.37 238.37
VN CH S HU 428.08 521.11 625.37 688.57 765.96 860.49
TNG CNG NGUN VN 1,613.65 1,846.22 2,275.45 2,326.65 2,356.98 2,469.91

Ngun: BSC d bo

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CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
D bo Kt qu kinh doanh
T VN 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Doanh s thun 1,923.94 1,887.75 2,553.12 3,032.53 3,175.29 3,383.80
Gi vn hng bn 1,574.94 1,554.55 2,103.00 2,497.38 2,613.01 2,783.34
Li gp 349.00 333.20 450.12 535.16 562.28 600.45
Thu nhp ti chnh 18.33 15.62 16.98 16.93 16.95 16.94
Chi ph ti chnh 97.90 88.19 101.61 97.30 94.35 92.76
Trong : Chi ph li vay 56.84 67.12 72.49 68.18 65.23 63.64
Chi ph bn hng 36.67 28.94 60.72 72.12 75.51 80.47
Chi ph qun l doanh nghip 146.52 140.13 172.34 209.24 219.09 233.48
Li/l t hot ng kinh doanh 86.25 91.57 132.44 173.42 190.27 210.68
Thu nhp khc 1.79 5.96 1.09 1.29 1.35 1.44
Chi ph khc 0.01 2.73 1.28 1.52 1.59 1.69
Thu nhp khc, rng 1.78 3.23 (0.19) (0.22) (0.23) (0.25)
Li/l rng trc thu 88.03 94.80 132.25 173.20 190.03 210.43
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip hin thi 16.73 13.62 21.16 27.71 30.41 33.67
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip hon li
Chi ph thu thu nhp doanh nghip 16.73 13.62 21.16 27.71 30.41 33.67
Li/l thun sau thu 71.30 81.18 111.09 145.49 159.63 176.76
Li ch ca c ng thiu s
Li nhun ca C ng ca Cng ty m 71.30 81.18 111.09 145.49 159.63 176.76
Li c bn trn c phiu 2,567 3,361 3,688 4,084

Ngun: BSC d bo, gi nh trch 5% qu KTPL

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CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
Cc ch s ti chnh
CC CH TIU TI CHNH 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1. Ch tiu v kh nng thanh ton
+ H s thanh ton ngn hn 0.78 0.78 0.73 0.72 0.77 0.76
+ H s thanh ton nhanh 0.37 0.32 0.24 0.25 0.35 0.27
2. Ch tiu v c cu vn
+ Ti sn Ngn hn/ Tng ti sn 0.46 0.47 0.43 0.45 0.43 0.42
+ Ti sn Di hn/ Tng ti sn 0.54 0.53 0.57 0.55 0.57 0.58
+ H s N/ Tng ti sn 0.74 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.73 0.72
+ H s N/ Vn ch s hu 2.83 3.47 3.54 3.57 2.77 2.54
+ Vay v N ngn hn / Tng ti sn 48.33% 50.65% 48.96% 51.61% 41.32% 45.10%
+ Vay v N di hn / Tng ti sn 14.14% 17.86% 19.20% 15.67% 16.95% 17.01%
3. Ch tiu v nng lc hot ng
+ Vng quay hng tn kho 5.98 4.44 3.72 3.78 4.68 3.92
+ Vng quay cc khon phi thu 10.33 8.27 7.97 9.18 8.78 7.13
+ Vng quay cc khon phi tr 17.44 16.35 15.03 16.59 11.69 10.50
S ngy hng tn kho 60.99 82.26 98.22 96.66 77.99 93.18
S ngy khon phi thu 35.34 44.15 45.80 39.77 41.57 51.17
S ngy khon phi tr 20.93 22.33 24.28 21.99 31.22 34.76
CCC 75.40 104.09 119.74 114.44 88.35 109.59
4. Ch tiu v kh nng sinh li
+ Hs li nhun sau thu/Doanh thu thun (%) 2.14% 1.81% 1.19% 3.86% 3.71% 4.30%
+ Hs li nhun sau thu/Vn ch s hu (%) 11.44% 10.27% 6.64% 20.28% 16.66% 15.58%
+ H s li nhun sau thu/Tng ti sn 2.99% 2.30% 1.46% 4.44% 4.42% 4.40%
+ H s li nhun t HKD/Doanh thu thun 2.30% 1.93% 1.30% 4.56% 4.48% 4.85%
5. M hnh DuPont (5 nhn t)
H s Tng ti sn/Vn ch s hu 3.83 4.47 4.54 4.57 3.77 3.54
H s Doanh thu/Tng ti sn 1.40 1.27 1.23 1.15 1.19 1.02
H s Li trc thu, li sut/Doanh thu 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.09
H s li trc thu/Li trc thu, li sut 0.34 0.23 0.19 0.51 0.61 0.59
H s li rng/Li trc thu 0.91 0.93 0.82 0.83 0.81 0.86

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15/09/2017
CTCP u t v Thng mi TNG
BSC
Khuyn co s dng
Bn bo co ny ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (BSC), ch
cung cp nhng thng tin chung v phn tch v V m, ngnh v doanh nghip. Bo co ny khng c
xy dng cung cp theo yu cu ca bt k t chc hay c nhn ring l no hoc cc quyt nh mua
bn, nm gi chng khon. Nh u t ch nn s dng cc thng tin, phn tch, bnh lun ca Bn bo co
nh l ngun tham kho trc khi a ra nhng quyt nh u t cho ring mnh. Mi thng tin, nhn
nh v d bo v quan im trong bo co ny c da trn nhng ngun d liu ng tin cy. Tuy nhin
Cng ty C phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (BSC) khng m bo rng cc
ngun thng tin ny l hon ton chnh xc v khng chu bt k mt trch nhim no i vi tnh chnh xc
ca nhng thng tin c cp n trong bo co ny, cng nh khng chu trch nhim v nhng thit
hi i vi vic s dng ton b hay mt phn ni dung ca bn bo co ny. Mi quan im cng nh
nhn nh c cp trong bo co ny da trn s cn nhc cn trng, cng minh v hp l nht trong
hin ti. Tuy nhin nhng quan im, nhn nh ny c th thay i m khng cn bo trc. Bn bo co
ny c bn quyn v l ti sn ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit Nam
(BSC). Mi hnh vi sao chp, sa i, in n m khng c s ng ca BSC u tri lut. Bt k ni dung
no ca ti liu ny cng khng c (i) sao chp hay nhn bn bt k hnh thc hay phng thc no
hoc (ii) c cung cp nu khng c s chp thun ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon BIDV.

BSC Tr s chnh
Tng 10 & 11 Thp BIDV
35 Hng Vi, Hon Kim, H Ni
Tel: +84 4 3935 2722
Fax: +84 4 2220 0669

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Tng 9 Ta nh 146 Nguyn Cng Tr
Qun 1, Tp. H Ch Minh
Tel: +84 8 3821 8885
Fax: +84 8 3821 8510

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Bloomberg: BSCV <GO>

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