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ASIA PACIFIC

QUARTER BY
NUMBERS
Q2 2017

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
CONTENTS
THE BIG PICTURE
Message from Laura McCullough....03

ASIA AT A GLANCE

Key economic drivers.05

Looking through Asia Pacific FMCG lens...07

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT

Australia.......08

China.11

Hong Kong.......14

India......17

Indonesia.....20

Japan....23

Malaysia...26

Myanmar......29

New Zealand.......32

Philippines.......35

Singapore.....38

South Korea........41

Taiwan.............44

Thailand...........47

Vietnam...............50

IN THE INDUSTRY

Whos driving FMCG?..53

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
THE BIG PICTURE
MESSAGE FROM LAURA MCCULLOUGH
Pockets of Growth seems to be a recurring theme amidst an era of economic
change, modest growth and evolving consumption patterns. Across the board,
growth in FMCG is getting harder to achieve but if you scratch below the
surface, there are many examples of companies, segments and channels
performing strongly.

Laura McCullough Last quarter, we focussed on the huge potential e-commerce has in this region
FMCG Leader, where internet connectivity and consumer adoption continues to expand at rapid
Growth and
Emerging Markets
rates. This quarter, we focus on those companies that are managing to achieve
growth ahead of their peers.

Without a doubt, winners can be found across all sectors and markets - big and
small, global, regional. But where we see continued and sustained growth is
among local players in the region. As world markets hunker down under a guise
of protectionism, the Go Local song has never been stronger. The prestige that
global brands once held in developing markets appears to be losing some gloss
as local brands compete on quality, often with more competitive pricing and
more targeted marketing.

Nielsen conducted an analysis of the Top 100 FMCG players across Asia Pacific
in 2016 representing approximately 85% of FMCG.

In 2016, local players held the lions share of the FMCG market in Asia Pacific
at 53% while global and regional players account for 39% and 9% share
respectively. The real story though comes from who is driving the growth of
FMCG and here local players success is resounding, accounting for 73% of
FMCG growth over the last 3 years.

Whos Finding Growth In Asia Pacific


Global, Regional or Local Player?

53 LOCAL
73
REGIONAL
9
GLOBAL
38 12
16

% SHARE OF FMCG % OF FMCG GROWTH

While the strength of local players does differ by market, their impact on FMCG
growth is incredibly consistent.

Go to our In the Industry section to see how players are performing across
individual markets

Source: Nielsen Retail Analysis Total FMCG* Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs 2014
Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company
THE BIG PICTURE
Only a few years back, multinationals dominated modern trade while locals strength lay in
traditional retail formats. This too is changing with local players driving 90% of FMCG growth
in Modern Trade and 63% in Traditional Trade.

Other traditional stereotypes are also being smashed. Food and Beverage categories have
long been hailed as the stronghold of local players, given their local expertise for consumer
tastes and preferences. But again, local companies are moving in and taking global ground in
household and personal categories as well. It is in beverage categories that global
companies are driving most growth today.

So what are local players doing amidst these challenging times?

In general, local players are offering increasingly better quality products at competitive
pricing. They often have strong on the ground presence and a sustained distribution network
that ensures their products are readily available to all consumers not just those in the top
tier cities but in secondary cities and regions where consumption is accelerating. In many
markets like India, governments are promoting the Made in India theme, which drives
consumers emotional connection and loyalty to local brands but also local brands
are benefiting from a deeper understanding of local regulations and taxation incentives that
these schemes provide.

Connecting consumers to your brand values and brand story is critical to success and longer-
term loyalty. In a number of markets, local brands are capitalising on a revived local pride,
leveraging a brands heritage in the way they share their story with consumers often via
social media. Focus is also a strength of local brands - be it on a specific consumer group
or specific region to ensure they maximise their impact for the resources they have available.

Big or small locals are winning the growth race! Its up to global players to take stock, dig
deep and understand the nuances by market and connect with local consumers.

Check out our latest video on Asias Pockets of Growth for more insights.

For more insights on Whos driving growth?

1. Reach out to your local Nielsen representative


2. Visit Nielsens Blog: 3 Things Big FMCG Marketers need to do to win again
3. Visit Campaign Asias & Nielsens Top 1000 brands with exclusive interviews on how global versus local
players are winning in markets. Links available in In the Industry section.

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


ASIA AT A GLANCE

ECONOMIC PULSE OF CONSUMERS


AROUND ASIA PACIFIC

The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index measures perceptions of local job


prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer
confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of
optimism and pessimism, respectively.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX


Q2 2017 GDP (% GDP (% Q2 2017
Q2 Q2
vs Q4 change Inflation change Inflation vs Q4
2017 2017
2016 pa) pa) 2016
INDIA 128 -7 7.0 2.4 2.8 2.0 KOREA 63 20
THAILAND 107 -3 3.7 0.1 1.4 0.3 JAPAN 87 13
PHILIPPINES 130 -2 6.4 3.1 5.8 4.0 MALAYSIA 94 10
AUSTRALIA 89 -2 1.8 2.3 3.8 2.0 HONGKONG 102 9
2.1 0.6 TAIWAN 79 6
6.2 3.3 VIETNAM 117 5
6.7 1.5 CHINA 112 4
2.9 0.8 SINGAPORE 89 4
5.0 4.7 INDONESIA 121 1
0.0 1.7 NEW ZEALAND 103 0

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

Consumer confidence soars across many Asian markets

GDP and Inflation reflect % change per annum to Q2 2017 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index reflects Q2 2017

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


ASIA AT A GLANCE

CONSUMER SENTIMENTS IN
ASIA PACIFIC

WHAT ARE THE TOP 2 CONCERNS IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS?


Type of concern

50

40

30

20

10

The economy Health

APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN
The economy -5 -1 -4 -6 4 -7 -6 -3 -8 -1 -4 -9 -2 -3 0
Hea l th 2 -4 3 3 2 6 -2 2 1 -2 3 2 1 2 -4

Bars reflect Q2 2017. Table shows comparison to Q4 2016

WHOS SPENDING, SAVING AND INVESTING?

After living expenses, how is spare money spent


80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Putting into savings Holidays / vacations

APAC AU CN HK ID IN JP KO MY NZ PH SG TH TW VN
Putti ng i nto s a vi ngs 3 -2 7 1 -5 2 3 3 4 3 -6 1 6 -2 -13
Hol i da ys / va ca ti ons 8 0 14 -3 -2 2 7 5 10 -2 3 -3 10 -4 3
Bars reflect Q2 2017. Table shows comparison to Q4 2016

In line with consumer optimism, fewer consumers are concerned


about the economy, but increasingly worried about health

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


LOOKING THROUGH ASIA PACIFIC'S
FMCG LENS

FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS MARKET DYNAMICS


Weighted average APAC 14 countries

MAT YA MAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

5.7%

4.6% 4.5%
4.3% 4.1% 3.4%
3.6% 3.8%
3.6%
2.1% 2.1% 2.3%
1.3% 3.0% 1.5%
0.7% 2.1%
2.4% 1.9%
0.5%
2.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3%
1.8% 1.7%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Growth

WHERE ARE THE FMCG GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES?


Average volume growth Q1 2017 & Q2 2017

CHINA (+1.4%)

JAPAN (-1.6%)

THAILAND (-6.3%) KOREA (+2%)

TAIWAN (+1.7%)
HONGKONG (-3.8%)
INDIA (+11.7%) PHILIPPINES (+2.4%)
VIETNAM (+5.2%)
MALAYSIA (-4.1%)
SINGAPORE (-2.9%)
INDONESIA (+0.6%)

AUSTRALIA (+0.2%)

Avg. volume growth decreasing versus last period


Avg. volume growth increasing versus last period

NEW ZEALAND (+2.7%)


COLOUR CODING INDICATES GROWTH OR DECLINING TREND SINCE SAME 6 MONTH PERIOD YEAR AGO
AVERAGE Q117 & Q217 vs Q117 & Q216

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


AUSTRALIA SNAPSHOT
Australias GDP is up slightly at 1.8%, but propped up by inflation at 2.3%. In Q2 2017,
Australias consumer confidence score was 89 , slightly down below the level at 91 where it
had sat for most of 2016 and well below the Asia Pacific average of 114. Australians are
still relatively pessimistic about job prospects with 60% saying conditions are not so
good/bad over the next 12 months - almost double the Asia Pacific average (31%). Just
over half (51%) of Australian consumers say that the state of their personal finances are
good/excellent - up two points versus Q2 2016; while just 42% say it is a good/excellent
time to buy the things they want and need.
Australian consumers top three concerns underpins our pessimistic outlook overall - rising
Justin Sargent
Managing Director,
utility bills, the economy and terrorism rank the highest. More than half of Australian
Pacific consumers intend to allocate any spare cash they have to topping up their savings (44%),
holidays (31%) and paying off their debts (25%). Environmental factors such as record
under-employment, low wage inflation, rising utilities prices as well as the increased
strength of private label and discounters has affected grocery channel growth.

Value growth in the FMCG sector is flat in Q2 and down quite dramatically versus previous
quarters. The annual picture, however, is much more stable with value growth at 2.8% - in
line with 2016.

An increasingly diverse population is creating real opportunities for retailers and


manufacturers. The latest census results highlight those born abroad continues to rise, but
the mix is changing. The number of Australians born in China and India has gone from
2.9% in 2011 to 4.1% in 2016. Asian-born Australians are now projected to contribute $6.6
billion to the Grocery market by 2020. The big challenge for the major retailers will be to
offer this group a one stop shop - something that currently is not being offered in its
entirety. Asian-born consumers are growing in importance and engaging with them requires
a change in mindset that very few Australian manufacturers have embraced to date. For
example, Asians food preferences are very different. They devote almost a third (32%) of
their grocery spend to fresh food (compared to Australian-born consumers who allocate
26% of their spend on fresh); and they also have a strong skew toward seafood, fresh herbs
and healthier food options in general. In a recent survey, 75% of Asian-Australians said
that they would shop in more mainstream retailers if more international products were
stocked. Genuine strategies that put the consumer first will ensure that retailers and
manufacturers alike will win with this group.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

109 111 114


3.1 108 107
2.5 89 91 91 91 89
2.4 2.3
2.1
1.8 1.7 1.8
1.5
1.3 1.3
1.0

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

AP AU
GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YA MAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

4.4% 4.4%
4.1%
3.7% 3.4%
3.4%
2.8% 2.8% 3.5%
2.7% 2.3%
3.5%
2.2% 1.8% 3.3% 1.1%
0.9%
-0.1% 1.0% 1.1%
1.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7%
0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
0.0%
0.1% -0.6%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

Consumer cautiousness impacting growth along with retailers


continued focus by retailers on value proposition

TOTAL AUSTRALIA CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

3%

13.4%

2.6%

97%

Online
Bricks and Mortar

Online sector continues to grow with excitement surrounding


Amazons imminent launch

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL AUSTRALIA SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

2.8%
5% 6% 4.4%
14% 8% 4.7%
2.5%
7% 0.4%
1.5%
6% 26%
3.6%
4% 4.5%
0.7%
19% 5% 7.0%
-4.1%

Total FMCG Frozen Food Health & Beauty exc med equip/acc
Chilled Foods Household exc vacuum cleaner bag Dry Grocery
Pet Supplies Confectionery Beverages
Fresh Produce Other

Despite subdued growth, some categories shine particularly in Health and


Wellness such as Fresh Produce

TOTAL AUSTRALIA MANUFACTURER VALUE GROWTH % ACROSS FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

7% 2.8%

4.6%
22%
40%
1.2%

-1.1%

3.0%
20%
11% 6.0%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

Smaller players continue to grow ahead of market tapping into niche


consumer needs

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


CHINA SNAPSHOT
Chinas GDP has remained stable over the past two years achieving GDP growth between
6.5% and 7% and reaching 6.7% in Q2 2017 due to a high contribution of domestic
consumption and better performance of imports and exports. Economic restructuring,
including setting up the new Xiongan Economic Zone and the One Belt One Road
summit has encouraged cross country economic cooperation that will further drive healthy
economic growth. Inflation remains low and steady due to the Chinese governments effort
in reducing financial leverage with neutral and prudent monetary policies.
Consumer confidence hit a two year high in Q2 2017 at 112 with an increase across all
Vishal Bali three components, but led by confidence in personal finance from consumers in low tier
Managing Director, cities. The higher disposable income growth and lower cost of living e.g. real estate costs
China compared with upper tier cities, boosted the financial confidence of consumers in low tier
cities which will drive future consumption growth. While financial confidence has
improved, increasing environmental problems in China has led to health becoming the
biggest concern of Chinese consumers overtaking income security for the first time since
2009. This represents a great opportunity for FMCG players in health-related industries and
products.
In line with promising economic growth and rising consumer confidence, Chinas FMCG
market registered 11% growth in Q2 2017 (online and offline), its highest growth in the
past 2 years. Premiumization is a major factor driving growth with premium products those
with a price 20% higher than the category average) contributing over 50% of total value
sales within the top 30 FMCG categories in China. E-commerce is still the most powerful
engine for FMCG growth in China driven by heavy promotional activity. JD.COMs 618
promotion led the mid-year online sales boost, with reported turnover of RMB 119.9 billion.
Additionally, specialty and small format channels are also growing quickly due to
consumers rising demand for convenience.
Premiumization continues to be the key opportunity within Chinas FMCG market. The
challenge however is the degree of premiumization across different categories and
geographies. As consumers become increasingly sophisticated, manufacturers must
deliver real benefits and high quality product experiences in order to justify and charge a
premium. The other emerging challenge for manufacturers and retailers in China is the
growing trend to individualization. Chinese consumers, in particular younger generations
are looking for niche and unique products, instead of mass market, big brands. Leveraging
online consumer data to enable precision marketing will be the key for manufacturers
looking to capture the individual needs of the consumer.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

114
6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.7 112
111
109
108 108
107
106 106
105
2.2 2.2 2.3
1.8 1.4 1.5

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

GDP (% change pa)

Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa) AP CN

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS OFFLINE
(weighted average)

MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

0.7% 5.2%
3.1%
3.4% 2.6% 4.0%
3.1% 2.2%
3.3% 3.3%
2.3% 2.8% 2.4% 3.0%
3.4% 2.0% 1.7%
0.2% 3.2%
0.7% 3.4% -0.2%
0.0%
-2.6% -1.1% -1.4%
-1.7% -2.8%
-1.4%
-5.1%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

FMCG growth hit a 2 year high in Q2 2017, with increased purchase


willingness from consumers, based on job security and financial confidence.

TOTAL CHINA CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

Nat CityTgTs
9% H/S'mkt/CVS Total 2.9%
Offline Nat CityTgTs
32%
FMCG 59% 3.2%
Grocery Total

Other 7.0%

9.7%
Specialty Baby Stores
and
Online 31.2%
Online

Online continues its rapid growth, driven by promotion and improvements


in technology. Specialty retail and convenience formats are catering to
consumers demand for product expertise and convenience

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL CHINA SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE - OFFLINE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

1%4% 11% 3.3%


-0.4%
14% 6.5%
6.7%
2.5%
7% 21% -4.2%
-0.7%
6% 0.0%
3% 5.1%
2.2%
18% -1.8%
14%

Total FMCG Impulse Food Beverage Diary


DairyFood
Food Other Food Baby Care

Household Pad/Tissue Personal Care Insect Control Hair Products

Health and premium trends are the driving force behind Food and
Beverage growth.

TOTAL CHINA MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE FMCG OFFLINE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

3.3%
20% 4.5%
30%
6.5%

10% -0.2%

-0.8%
19% 20% 6.7%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

The market continues to become more fragmented, as smaller players


perform strongly by meeting a growing diversity of consumer needs.

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


HONG KONG SNAPSHOT
The Hong Kong economy has seen recovered growth in 2017 with GDP at +3.8%
versus year ago buoyed by rising local spending, stable inflation levels and the return
of the economys growth engine mainland tourists. While mainland tourist numbers
had been in decline in 2016, the year to June 2017 saw mainland arrivals increase by
+2.3% versus year ago facilitating a revival in the retail sector especially in premium
segments like luxury goods and department stores.
Consumer confidence echoed this optimism with a rebound in Q2 2017, continuing
the upward trend from Q3 2016. Positive sentiments towards job prospects were the
Angel Young
Managing Director, key driver to overall confidence as the local economy sustained low levels of
Hong Kong and unemployment in recent quarters along with consumers strong appetite to invest and
Macau spend.
While the FMCG market still saw negative value performance in the year to Q2 2017,
the trend has been improving quarter on quarter. Consumption was still down driven
by categories like Infant Milk Formula and Snacks yet strong premiumization or
trading up to higher price tiers across many Food and Non Food categories buoyed
the numbers. Hong Kong consumers are prepared to spend on premium innovation
especially in Grooming and Skin care categories. In Food and Beverage categories, a
preference towards healthier options e.g. low sugar, highlight Hong Kong consumers
changing mindset to healthier choices, given health has become their number one
concern this quarter.
With improving economic performance and consumer sentiment in 2017, it is
anticipated consumers will have a broader range of choices available in how they
spend. It is critical for businesses to continue to invest in the right mix of innovations
and offerings to address both local consumer and mainland visitors needs. As
consumers become more digitally savvy, online channels will become the best route
to reach and engage them. As shoppers from Mainland China will remain a key
priority group in Hong Kong, it is important to understand and anticipate how their
spending choices will evolve. Their purpose of visiting Hong Kong is moving beyond
shopping into local experiences, across food and entertainment options.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

4.3
3.8
109 111 114
108 107
3.1 3.2 102
95 93
2.8 88 87
2.6
2.0 2.0
1.8
1.2
1.0
0.5

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

GDP (% change pa)


Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa) AP HK

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

1.1%
0.9%
1.3%
1.5% 1.4% 1.9%
0.1% 1.4% 0.2% -0.2% 0.9% 0.8%
0.3%
-0.3% -0.5% 0.0%
-0.5% -2.4%
-1.0%
-0.4% -1.2% -0.7% -0.3%
-1.7% -4.3% -1.5%
-2.6% -2.5%
-3.4%
-3.0%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

FMCG categories esp. Beverages and Personal Care have seen


strong growth via premiumization

TOTAL HONG KONG CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

20%
-9.0%

0.9%
80%

Traditional Trade Modern Trade

Chain retailers are driving innovation and the development of


the premium segment to drive growth opportunities

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL HONG KONG SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH
MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017
-1.2%
8% 5% 3.2%
0% -14.2%
12%
14% 1.2%
5.3%
0.0%
15% 1.2%
10% -5.9%
-1.7%
8% 10% 5.5%
-1.6%
11% 6% -2.7%

Total FMCG Alcoholic Drinks Baby Product

Cigarette Dairy, Bakery & Frozen Household Products

Non-Alcoholic Drinks Non-pre Medicine/Health Product Packaged Food

Personal Care Pet Food Snacks & Conf

Premiumization was the key driver behind Cigarettes, Frozen Food and
Personal care categories performance.

TOTAL HONG KONG MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG


VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH
MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

11% -1.2%

6% -2.1%

-3.7%
13%
55% 4.8%

6.0%
15%
-3.9%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

The top 10 manufacturers continue to feel the impact of tourist declines


especially in categories like Infant Milk Formula. Smaller and mid-sized
brands continue to challenge multi-category multinationals

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


INDIA SNAPSHOT
India has been straddling tectonic shifts since November last year. Demonetization and the
implementation of the GST (Goods & Services Tax) followed in quick succession to
revolutionize trade practices. GST is the biggest tax reform that India has undertaken in
recent years. Though fairly well-prepared, a certain amount of disruption is likely as
businesses adapt to the implications. Nielsen conducted a survey in June 2017 which
found two out every three FMCG retailers were aware of GST, but low awareness was
more prevalent in rural markets. Though one in four retailers were optimistic, over 50% of
retailers were uncertain about the impact of GST on their business.
Prasun Basu
President, GST adoption in India has been relatively smooth compared to other markets. In other
South Asia countries, implementation of such a tax reform led to high inflation and slowdown in
growth. In India, administrators have initiated anti-profiteering rules to keep a close tab on
price increase. So far, inflation has largely been under control but it should be closely
observed over the next few quarters.

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) score for India in Q2 2017 was 128 , 8 points lower
than Q4 2016, where India was highest at 136. This short-term anxiety is likely to be due
to the major events such as demonetization and the rollout of the GST creating a larger
formal economy that will lead to re-defining of jobs and re-skilling as businesses and
business processes restructure themselves. Consumer perceptions on prices due to the
GST tax implementation could also be the cause for consumers exercising caution around
spending. While Indias confidence dropped from the top spot globally, at rank two on the
index, the country continues to reflect high confidence levels that it has held for the past
three years.

Government expenditure is also aiding overall growth. Due to the early presentation of the
union budget this year, non-interest government expenditure expanded by 26% in Q2
2017. After poor rains for two consecutive years in 2014 and 2015, monsoon was normal in
2016 and 2017 is expected to be close to normal. As a result, advanced estimates for crop
yields this year is positive. The positive monsoon season and strong agricultural yields has
lined consumers pockets resulting in strong FMCG performance in Q2 2017.

Overall, the economic outlook for the country seems healthy with controlled inflation,
upward GDP estimates for 2017-18, and healthy agricultural production. FMCG
manufacturers need to be vigilant about the GST era. As the tax bands change, there is a
lot of room to fine-tune price-promo combinations of products to develop a winning edge. In
the short term, companies also need to support products to maintain stock pressure in the
trade as retailers might not have the expertise to harness the change.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

134 133 136


128 128
108 107 109 111 114

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

AP IN
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)/India Central Statistics Office

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

19.9%

12.5% 12.2% 15.3%


11.1%
9.6%
8.9% 7.4% 8.0% 8.2%
7.2% 6.6%
7.0% 8.0%
4.9% 5.5% 6.0%
3.7%
1.6% 4.6%
3.6% 3.1% 4.0% 4.6%
2.3% 2.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

Double-digit FMCG growth on the back of healthy economic


indicators

TOTAL INDIA CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

8%
12.8%

8.8%

92%
Traditional Trade Modern Trade

With high growth in lower town classes, traditional trade


continues to grow faster than modern trade

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL INDIA SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

7% 12.5%
19%
13.6%
23%
11.2%
14%
15.3%

16% 12.0%
22%
9.9%

13.2%

Total FMCG Staple Other Food ImpulseFood


Impluse Food Home Care Personal Care OTC

High growth in staples as branded offerings improve. Revival of


noodles category is driving growth of the Impulse segment.

TOTAL INDIA MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

12.5%
23%
31% 10.3%

18.0%

11% 12.2%

16.8%
15%
20% 10.5%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

Top 6-10 CPG manufacturers growing fastest on account of


strengthening distribution

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


INDONESIA SNAPSHOT
Indonesian economy remains stable with GDP at 5% annual growth for Q2 2017. It continues to
be perceived as a market of opportunity for many companies looking to invest. Private
consumption is underpinning performance and with infrastructure spending rising, improved
accessibility will continue to help drive consumer demand. While inflation has been running at
lower levels, it has increased in the last quarter due to the festive period (higher food demand)
and increases in electricity expenditure related to new government regulations.

Consumer confidence remains high and Indonesia continues to be one of the top 3 most
Agus Nurudin
optimistic countries in the region. However despite consumer optimism, consumers are shifting
Managing Director,
Indonesia their spending priorities as income increases are not keeping up with price increases. In the
last 6 months, it appears FMCG value and consumption has slowed due to a shift in consumer
spending behaviour. Indonesian consumers focus on three main spending areas :
1.Food necessities covering rice, fruit vegetables, meat and poultry; 2.Education considered
necessary spending for future; 3.Leisure and Lifestyle e.g. vacation, fashion, and durables
including smartphones. Different socio-economic groups have different priorities. Middle
income groups seem able to adjust their spending and still increase consumption, while upper
income groups try to rationalize spending by seeking more promotions and switching to more
affordable brands Lower income groups (46% of population) have limited spending leverage
and tend to sacrifice volume consumption including FMCG.

In this environment, small format outlets e.g. mini-markets and traditional trade have an
advantage as consumers reduce planned, often larger shopping trips in favour of smaller top-
up shopping. E-commerce in Indonesia, while still below 2% is seeing significant growth over
the past year mostly driven by promotion buying.

Looking forward, companies need to address the stratification of consumer needs in Indonesia.
While consumers seek value, it is critical to manage promotion strategies carefully to avoid
promotional dependence. Given the size and importance of the lower income group, companies
must consider pricing strategies from the full portfolio to ensure an affordable entry level tier for
this consumer group. Finally, consumers are looking for excitement, so it is critical to drive the
emotional connection with brands through consumer events and product innovation.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0


5.0 4.9 122 121
4.7 120
4.3 119
117
3.7
3.4 3.3 114
3.1 111
108 109
107

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

GDP (% change pa) AP ID


Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

11.2% 11.1% 11.3%


10.7%
3.6% 9.2%
4.7% 4.6%
6.2%
5.0% 6.7%
4.6% 2.7%

7.6% 4.2% 4.0%


1.0% 6.5% 3.4%
5.9% 0.5%
5.1% 0.6%
3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 0.7%
3.3% 2.7%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

FMCG growth has been decelerating due to shifting priorities to


the non-FMCG sector such as education, leisure and lifestyle

TOTAL INDONESIA CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

4.0%
42%

58%
5.4%

General Trade Modern Trade

Modern trade is growing slightly faster than traditional trade


driven by small format channel increasing store numbers

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL INDONESIA SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

3%
18% 4.6%

4.1%
35% 2.1%
8%
7.1%

3.1%

35% 2.9%

Total FMCG Personal Care Home Care Foods Beverage Pharma

Food categories show stronger growth due while all socio-


economic groups focusing spend on necessity categories

TOTAL INDONESIA MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

14% 4.6%

26% 2.9%

1.3%
24% 9.7%

13% 3.5%

4.6%
24%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

Mid-size manufacturers, specially local players are growing much


faster than others due to their ability to manage price increases

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


JAPAN SNAPSHOT
Japans domestic economy continues its moderate recovery with GDP growth positive at
+1% for six quarters in a row as a result of solid consumer spending and corporate
investments in offices and factories. Unemployment remains low and real consumer
spending increased in June for the first time in 16 months.

Consumers are showing increasing optimism with the consumer confidence index at 87
points, an increase of 14 points since Q4 2016 - the highest over the past two years. This
increase was across the 3 key indicators of job prospects, state of personal finances and the
Toshihiro
right time to buy the things they want/need in the next 12 months. Japanese consumers
Fukutoku
Managing Director, continue to prioritise putting spare cash into savings but spending on holidays and out-of-
Japan home entertainment has expanded. The economy, war, and health rate as the top concerns
among Japanese consumers. Tensions in the region with North Korea may be driving the
concern of war which rose 9% since Q4 2016.

FMCG performance continues to be stagnant at -0.7%. Supermarkets performance declined


due to both fewer customers as well as smaller spend per customer in both May and June.
Convenience stores showed continued growth as did drugstore chains driven by the growth
in food categories low-price strategies. While offline retail performance continues to struggle
with the decline of retail stores in rural areas and the closing of large stores in metropolitan
areas, e-commerce in Japan is increasing at a rapid rate (average growth of +10.9% across
all categories), gaining the support of consumers due to its rich assortment offering.

With population declines and low profits, many Japanese companies look for growth beyond
domestic borders and have shifted their markets overseas. Although traditionally, it was
only local giants that focussed on market expansion outside of Japan, medium sized local
players are following this strategy for growth. While the Japanese retail environment is
challenging, opportunities can be found for companies with a genuine understanding of
consumers wants and needs. Consumers today do not purchase on price alone, rather they
evaluate the total product based on criteria that matters most to them. It is critical that
product development encompasses a high-quality offer as well as providing benefits (e.g.
joy, convenience, uniqueness.) consumers seek.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

108 109 111 114


107
87
73 69 71 73
1.7 1.6 1.4
1.0 1.1
0.5 0.0 0.3 0.3
0.3
-0.3 -0.5 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 AP JP


GDP (% change pa)
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa) * Commentary supported by Ayako Ono,
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Senior Analyst, INTAGE, Japan

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

3.6%
3.3%
2.8% 2.9%
1.9% 1.2% 1.8%
1.2%
1.7% 1.6% 1.6%
0.5% 0.6%
1.6% 1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3%
1.1% 0.5% 0.3%
0.2% 0.6% 0.4%
-0.3%
-2.3% -0.7%
-1.0%
-1.8%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

Increases in prices of cooking oil, wheat, and dairy products have


impacted consumer spending

TOTAL JAPAN CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

17%
-0.8%
3%
2.3%

21% 60% -1.2%

1.8%

Super Market DRUG HC/DS CVS

Supermarket performance is stagnant due to price increases,


while drugstores offer lower price food options assisting growth.

Source: INTAGE : a Japan based partner sourcing RMS data to Nielsen Japan HC: Home Centre. DS: Discount store

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL JAPAN SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

0.2%
4% 12%
1.1%
21% 7%
2.0%

-0.4%

1.4%

-3.1%
56%

Total FMCG Personal Care Home Care Foods Beverage Paper Product

Performance of household and personal care goods are


relatively healthy but higher prices in paper goods has impacted
performance.

Source: INTAGE : a Japan based partner sourcing RMS data to Nielsen Japan

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


MALAYSIA SNAPSHOT
The Malaysian consumer confidence showed signs of resilience in the second
quarter of 2017 with an index score of 94 up 7 points compared to Q2 2016.
This upward shift in sentiment is likely a result of the improvement in key
economic indicators and a stabilising currency. There still remains a question
on the disconnect between the economic indicators and consumer sentiment
which, although moving in the same direction now, indicates the average
Malaysian consumer is not feeling the impact of the positive economic growth at
a grass roots level.
Richard Hall
Managing Director,
Malaysia Although the economy remains the number one concern for half of the nations
consumers, uncertainty will most likely intensify as the election period
approaches, which could be anytime in the next year.

Despite the overall more positive consumer sentiment and economic


environment, the effect has yet to be felt in the FMCG sector with value down to
-0.4% for the year to Q2 2017 compared to 5.7% in Q2 2016. Although the
decline has slowed somewhat during the second quarter (-0.2%).

The recent Ramadhan period was flat, although Drugstores and Pharmacies
reported strong growth this quarter, coming from the cosmetics category post-
festive sales. Nevertheless, all other key categories showed a decline, with
beverages having the largest impact.

There is hope the current positive economic environment will encourage


increased consumer spending in the second half of the year. However,
suppliers and manufactures should proactively seek out alternative ways to grow
- rather than just passing on the cost to the consumer. Better focus on pipeline
management and alternative pack sizes or bundles may show better returns.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

109 111 114


108 107
5.6 5.8 89 94
87 84
79
4.3 4.5 4.3
4.1 4.0 4.0
3.4

1.9 1.7
1.3

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

GDP (% change pa)


Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa) AP MY

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YA MAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

8.0%
5.7% 5.4% 5.2%
4.3% 0.9%
3.6% 2.1% 8.1%
1.8% 3.2% 1.9%
2.0% 2.3% -1.9%
2.1% 3.3% 2.5% 2.1% 2.2%
1.5% 0.5%
-0.4% -0.1% -0.2%
-1.4% -6.3%
-2.4% 1.6%
-4.1%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

Q2 recovery was supported by strong performance of Personal


Care and Health & Wellness in Drugstore and Pharmacy channels
with festive messages during Ramadan period

TOTAL PEN MALAYSIA CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

2%
1.6%
26%

-5.5%

72%
-1.8%

Modern Trade Trad Trade Others

Drugstore/Pharmacy is the only channel growing in the last six


months driven not only by mainstream brands but smaller
manufacturers, especially within the Health & Beauty segments.

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL PEN MALAYSIA SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

2% -0.4%
9%
25% -0.2%
-6.2%
19% 3.4%
-2.9%

8% 4.6%
26% 1.7%
10%
11.7%

Total FMCG Dry Categories


Beverage Snacks & Confectionery
Powdered Milk/IMF Personal Care
Household Health & Wellness

Consumers are purchasing fewer sweet Beverages and focusing more


on Health and Personal Care products especially through
drugstores/pharmacies

TOTAL PEN MALAYSIA MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

-0.4%
18%
24%
-3.5%

0.5%

24% 10% -2.2%

0.9%

25% 4.2%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

Specialty brand players specifically within Non-Food categories are


finding growth providing functional (health/beauty) value to consumers

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


MYANMAR SNAPSHOT
Myanmars economy has slowed slightly but both government and private sectors are hoping
for positive movements and outcomes given the significant increase in FDI (foreign direct
investment) compared to same period last year. More than 70% of foreign businesses
registered in Q2 are service companies. However, a lag in exports and the depreciation of
the kyat challenges the economy. Agriculture business is struggling due to limited export
destinations, along with issues in product quality and production volume. Inflation rates have
seen increases in specific essential areas such as transportation (9.8%) due to flooding in
certain areas which created logistics issues that trickled down to general goods and non-food
products .
Thurein Nyein
Managing Director
Myanmar Nonetheless, FMCG still exhibits steady growth at 14.6% for Q2 2017 versus year ago. The
retail market continues to expand distribution outside of Yangon, with multinational companies
working closely with local distributors to increase speed of product distribution.

Myanmars population is increasingly connected. Internet penetration is steadily growing to be


31% (+5% from 2016). Over 22 million people in Myanmar own at least one mobile phone,
85% of which are smartphone owners. Facebook is growing in popularity with 91%
penetration (+10% from 2016). E-commerce is also emerging in Myanmar from informal
purchasing from online sellers on Facebook, to the introduction of app-based food delivery
services. More affordable rates for data plans is behind increasing consumer connectivity.
Banks have recently started offering credit cards, and while usage is still significantly lower
(10x less) than ATM/debit cards, growing adoption can pave the way for faster adoption of e-
commerce in more structured formal channels in the near future. The increasing number of
digital marketing agencies in Myanmar also indicates the importance businesses are placing
on having a strong digital presence to expand their reach and engagement with consumers.

Myanmars invitation to join the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in the next 16 months
provides opportunity for local companies to learn and adopt best practices from the region
and benefit from foreign direct investment to enhance trade. Local companies however face
challenges by AEC entry with increased competition creating a need to elevate product
quality in the manufacturing sector and greater trade financing support required in the banking
sector. The government continues to enhance its investment laws to attract foreign
investors. It is an exciting time for Myanmar as new policy will make it easier for foreign
companies to do business within its borders. Companies should be prepared with strong
local knowledge to get ahead of the game

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

10.8 11.0 111 110

8.0
7.3 6.9 7.0
6.5 107
5.5
105

2014 2015 2016 2017 forecast Q4 2015 Q4 2016

GDP (% change pa) AP MYAN


Inflation, consumer prices (% change pa)
Source World Bank & Myanmar Statistical Information Service
Myanmar Consumer Confidence is updated annual in Q4.

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MYANMAR 6 CITIES (QUARTERLY GROWTH VERSUS YEAR AGO)

Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

15.3% 14.6%
13.4%

14.5% 14.0%
12.5%

0.9% 0.7%
0.6%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth


* limited back data for total FMCG

FMCG demonstrates robust growth in Q2 as prices stabilise


across categories compared to last year and previous quarters

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL MYANMAR (6 CITIES) SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH


Q2-2017 Q2-2017

8% 14.6%
11% 17%
37%
12%
11%
12%

26%

3%
33%

Total FMCG Alcoholic Beverage Non-Alcoholic Beverage Foods Cigarette Non-Food

Beverages lead the growth as most players aggressively push for


distribution expansion

TOTAL MYANMAR (6 CITIES) MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


Q2-2017 Q2-2017

4%
14.6%
16%
13.6%
14.9%
43%
20.3%

23% 11.4%
7.2%

13%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31 -100 100+

Most manufacturers are growing, particularly medium-sized


players, bringing innovation to the market

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


NEW ZEALAND SNAPSHOT
New Zealands latest GDP continues to be positive at 3.0% for year ending March
2017. Tourism continues to be a major driver of GDP growth up 0.4% from Q4 2016.
Consumer confidence in New Zealand remains the highest in nine years at 103 -
seven points higher than the same time last year (Q2 2016). Increasing confidence
among Kiwis has been driven by a more positive outlook on local job prospects and
the state of their personal finances. New Zealands unemployment rate (currently at
4.8%), has moved in the opposite direction to consumer confidence and is the lowest
it has been since March 2009, showing once again how positive Kiwis are feeling
Rob Clark about life.
Managing Director,
New Zealand New Zealanders biggest concerns are a reflection of their current positive outlook.
Health, increasing food prices, rising utility expenses, job security and work/life
balance are the top five concerns among Kiwis. They are less concerned about the
economy, jobs and debt levels which tend to feature more prominently during times
of low consumer confidence. They intend to use their spare cash to top up their
savings, pay off debts, and put toward holidays and buying new clothes.
Overall value growth for the New Zealand FMCG market is +3.7% in Q2 2017. This
is largely due to net migration continuing to drive volume growth, offset by low
inflation level. More specifically within supermarkets, we see two main contributors to
growth; price inflation in chilled categories (including butter, fresh milk and cream,
and cheese) as well as new product development fuelling confectionery growth (in
both value and unit growth).
In New Zealand, there are a number of forces which look to change the competitive
retail landscape. Should Aldi choose to expand beyond Australia and into NZ, this
will place a wedge between the duopoly of the two major grocers - increasing both
price competition and margin pressure for retailers and manufacturers. The rapid rise
in meal kit sales has also taken retailers by surprise. This represents both a threat
and opportunity for them, and needs to be part of their broader e-commerce strategic
plan. The growth in meal kits has been fuelled by an increasing number of
consumers looking for convenient ways for nutritious meals to be delivered at
affordable prices that minimise waste.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

4.4
4.1
3.9 3.7
3.5 114
111
108 109
107
2.2 103 103
101
1.7 99
1.3 96
0.4 0.0
0.4 0.4
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

GDP (% change pa) AP NZ


Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)


NZ GDP for Q2 not released yet

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YA MAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

4.7%
3.5% 3.5% 3.7%
5.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6%
5.5% 2.7%
2.8% 4.6% 8.9% 3.1% 2.8%
0.1% 3.0% 2.9% 1.0%
-2.0% -0.3% -0.4%
-1.5% -1.9% -0.2% -0.1%
-4.2%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

Value growth at 3.7% for Q2 2017 has been driven


predominantly by chilled foods and confectionery performance

TOTAL NEW ZEALAND CHANNEL PERFORMANCE N/A

MODERN TRADE ACCOUNTS


FOR 100% OF THE
NEW ZEALAND MARKET

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL NEW ZEALAND SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017
2.9%
2.4%
3% 11% 3.7%
8%
2% 2.7%
3% 5.2%
8% 9% 5.1%
-18.5%
6% 3.0%
17% 1.8%
2.3%
5.6%
24% 6% 7.1%
3% 3.9%

Total FMCG Alcohol Baby Products


Beverages Chilled Food Frozen Food
General Merchandise Grocery Household Paper Products
Personal Care Pet Supplies Snackfoods Confectionery
Tobacco

Chilled Food growth has been driven by price increases in dairy


categories, while innovation in confectionery is driving Snackfood and
Confectionary growth
TOTAL NEW ZEALAND MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

2.9%
23% 23%
1.1%

0.6%

10% 3.2%
23%
3.1%
21% 5.2%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

Small to medium sized suppliers (which tend to be locally based) are


seeing higher growth, with the ability to launch new products more
targeted to the NZ consumer

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


PHILIPPINES SNAPSHOT
With the Philippines growing at 6.4% in Q2 2017, it remains as one of the best performing
economies in Asia. Household consumption remained at 5.9% while government
consumption expanded by 7.1% from a meagre 0.1% in Q1 2017. The agriculture sector
continued to recover from El Nio, expanding by 6.3% while services remain the main driver
of growth at 6.1%. Inflation increased to above 3% but was still within the Central Bank
expectation of 2-4% Peso is the worst performing currency in Asia breaching P51 to the $.

In the second quarter of 2017, optimism amongst Filipino consumers was the most bullish
Stuart Jamieson globally at 130 despite a slight dip of two points from Q4 2016 While the three confidence
Managing Director, indicators remain high, slight decreases (-2% ) were noted across job optimism, immediate
The Philippines spending intentions and state of personal finances compared to Q4 2016. Job security and
health are the top two major concerns of Filipino consumers. Most notable is the rising
concern of Filipino respondents over terrorism 20% compared to 6% in Q4 2016 which was
not surprising after the Resorts world incident and the start of the Marawi siege.

FMCG looks to continue to grow despite some softening in recent quarters. A number of e-
commerce players are intensifying their efforts in the Philippines. Small store formats such
as conveniences stores and minimarts continue to grow with regional supermarket chains
rolling out their own small store outlets.

A Tax Reform Bill is being passed through legislation which includes lowering the personal
income tax over several years for lower income earners, and implementing an excise tax on
motor vehicles and petroleum products and a Sugar Tax on Sweetened Beverages. The
President also signed an Executive Order banning smoking outside of designated areas.
This will dampen cigarette consumption as fewer sari-sari stores will handle the category
given stores within 100 metres of schools are not allowed to sell and shoppers are not
allowed to light a cigarette within this zone.

As the government looks to implement a number of tax reforms it is critical for retailers and
manufacturers to understand and be prepared for how its effects will impact consumer
behaviour. While consumers will potentially find themselves with additional income, it is
uncertain how much will be spent on FMCG versus durables or savings. Anticipating price
increases that will come with a sugar tax and its impact on consumption is critical for
manufacturers to be armed for the future. Philippines continues to be a market ripe with
opportunity. It has a demographic sweet spot with a median age of 23 and as internet and
smartphone penetration continue to increase, pockets of growth will be there for the taking.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

132 132 132 130


7.1 7.0 7.1 119
6.4 6.4 6.4 108 109 111 114
107

3.1 3.1
2.5
2.1
1.1 1.6

Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

GDP (% change pa)


AP PH
Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

9.3%
8.9%
8.0% 8.3% 8.2%
7.9%
6.8% 6.8%
6.1%
4.9% 4.6% 5.8% 6.6% 5.5% 5.5%
4.1% 3.6% 4.9%
3.2% 1.7%

3.1% 2.7% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 2.7% 3.1%


2.5% 2.3% 2.4%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

Volume is softer with the full effect of election period (Q2 2016)

TOTAL PHILIPPINES CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

6.5%
43%

57%
7.3%

Modern Trade Traditional Trade

Traditional Trade sales lag Modern Trade due to softening of


beverages and cigarettes

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL PHILIPPINES SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE
VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH
MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

0%
27%
5%
17%
11%
5%
3%
6%
10%
1%
1%
0%
3%
11%

Confectionery/snacks and Cooking Aids are leading food growth


Non-food growth led by Fabric Conditioner and Paper categories
TOTAL PHILIPPINES MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE


MAT Q2-2017 GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

8% 6.8%

4.2%
17%
38%
9.2%

7.7%

22% 10.1%

16% 6.6%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

Mixed performance from manufacturer segments.


Growth coming mostly from food companies

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


SINGAPORE SNAPSHOT
Driven by a stronger performing manufacturing and services sector, Singapores
GDP grew by 2.9% in Q2 2017. Domestic wholesale trade has also grown by 18.5%
in the same period . The trade-led recovery is slowly being felt by the domestic
economy, with unemployment rates falling to 3.3% in June from 3.5% in March.

Singapores consumers are showing increasing optimism with the confidence index
at 89 up three points from Q4 2016. Easing apprehension over job prospects is
evident (36% in Q2 2017 vs 32% in Q4 2016) in line with falling unemployment.
JOHAN
VRANCKEN
However, job security and the economy remained as the top major concerns.
Managing Director, Saving is still top of mind with more than six in 10 Singaporeans putting spare cash
Singapore in savings.

The marginal improvements in the economy have not been felt in FMCG, with spend
declining at -2.7% in Q2 2017/. Decline in spend could also reflect consumer
purchases in alternative channels such as e-commerce . While overall FMCG spend
declined, shoppers are shifting towards Modern Trade retailers which offer more
frequent promotions, especially when paired with strong loyalty programmes which
offer increased value. Shoppers are also looking towards house brands/private label
as a way to save money and perceived to offer comparable quality to named
brands.

E-commerce continues to grow steadily despite the majority of grocery shopping still
happening in offline channels. This growth is expected to continue and accelerate,
especially with the impending launch of Amazon Prime in Singapore. Health and
wellness is gaining more prominence among Singaporeans, with consumers putting
in more efforts to plan for healthier meal options. The Ministry of Health recently
introduced the Healthier Ingredients Development Scheme (HIDS), that provides
funding support for food manufacturers to incorporate more whole grains and
healthier cooking oils in their products. Health supplement categories are seeing
robust growth, supported by one in four Singaporeans incorporating them into their
diets.

Economics, taste and convenience are still very important in purchase decisions.
Manufacturers should look for opportunities to combine these attributes, helping time-
crunched consumers eat healthily without sacrificing taste or breaking the bank.
COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
109 111 114
108 107
94 89
88 88 86
2.9 2.7 2.9

1.9 1.9
1.2
0.0 0.6 0.8
-0.4
-0.8 -0.9
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017


AP SG
GDP (% change pa)

Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)


Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

3.3%

1.7% 1.8% 1.7%


0.9% 1.3% 0.3%
2.9%
0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
-0.7% -0.6%
-1.1% -2.1%
-2.7% -1.6% -0.3% -2.9%
-1.1% -1.4% -2.9%
-1.9%
-2.2% -0.8%
-2.8% -2.7%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

Singaporeans continue to tighten their purse strings in a tough


economic environment as evident by declining FMCG performance

TOTAL SINGAPORE CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

8%

-12.3%

-1.2%

92%

General Trade Modern Trade

While Traditional Trade declines rapidly, Modern Trade focuses


on promotions to encourage shoppers to the channel.

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL SINGAPORE SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

-2.2%
2% 12%
-7.4%
17%
-2.0%
9% -3.2%
6% -0.1%
9% -0.7%
15% 3.3%
-4.3%
20% -2.0%
6%
5% -2.2%
11.1%

FMCG Beverages Beer, Wine, Stout


Snacks/Confectionery Grocery Hot Beverages
Supplements Dairy Household Care
Personal Care Health Care

The increased emphasis in healthy living trends continue, with


strong performance in Supplements and Health Care categories

TOTAL SINGAPORE MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

-2.2%
23%
27% -2.4%

-6.0%
10%
-2.2%
19% -1.2%
21%
-1.3%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

Decline in Top 6-10 manufacturers driven by category


performance

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


SOUTH KOREA SNAPSHOT
Although the economic policy of South Koreas new government has not yet come
into effect, GDP has grown by 2.8% to Q2 2017 driven by the increased domestic
consumption, despite the slowdown in exports caused by the political conflict with
China over the THHAD issue (American anti-ballistic missile defence system).

Korean consumers are increasingly confident, with consumer confidence index


growing from below 50 across all quarters in 2016 to 63 points in Q2 2017. This
highlights Koreans growing confidence and hopeful expectations towards
Cindy Shin President Moon and his new administration which took office in May 2017, with
Managing Director, public support levels over 70%.
South Korea
In offline FMCG, bakery and beverage categories are experiencing growth along
with the rapidly expanding convenience channel. Demand for canned and chilled
food is also increasing accompanied by the growth in home meal replacement.
Food categories are seeing growth both offline (5%) and significant and swift
expansion in e-commerce (up to 20%). While offline sales are shrinking for
personal care and household products, these categories are still expected to grow
online as constantly connected consumers shift their purchasing patterns to this
channel.

With such a recovery in consumer confidence, manufacturers are expected to


increase their investment in product innovation to satisfy the rising expectations of
local consumers. Premium offerings that offer genuine value to consumers lives
available in diverse channels - both on and offline.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

109 111 114


3.4 108 107
2.9 3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.1 2.0 63
1.4 44 45 46 43
0.9 0.8 0.7

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

GDP (% change pa) AP KO


Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

4.8%

3.5% 3.6%
2.8% 2.8% 2.7%
4.3%
2.0% 3.0% 1.9% 1.7% 2.0% 4.0% 1.4%
1.6%
0.9% 0.7% 2.8%
0.5% 1.4%
1.1% 1.3%
1.3% 1.2% 0.8%
0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
-0.4%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

FMCG growth evident in value and volume coming from lower tier
value for money offerings as well as high-end premium products.

TOTAL SOUTH KOREA CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

3%
-4.4%

3.8%

97%

Traditional Trade Modern Trade

Modern trade dominates off-line channel due to transformation of


Mom & Pop shops to convenience stores

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL SOUTH KOREA SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

1% 3.5%
16% 6.0%
6% 8.8%
9% 10.8%
4% 6.3%
-3.2%
10%
3.9%
3%
-7.7%
16%
8.1%
1%
-3.8%
7% 0.7%
4% -2.9%
4% -6.2%
6% -6.1%
13% 3.6%

Total FMCG Baby Products Beverage


Canned Food / Meals Chilled Food Coffee & Tea
Dairy Detergent Drinks & Liquor
Home Consumables Noodles Paper Products
Personal Care Seasonings Snack

Home meal replacement category is driving growth of Food


market due to consumers thirst for convenience.
TOTAL SOUTH KOREA MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

3.5%
6%
26% 4.7%
18%
4.9%

0.8%
16%
2.7%
33%
11.8%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

Growth is evident across all tiers with the increased investment in


innovation. Larger companies are growing with focus on
premium products.

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TAIWAN SNAPSHOT
Taiwans economy remained relatively stable with annual GDP growth of 2.1% to Q2
2017, supported by foreign demand for exports that showed double-digit growth since
Q4 2016.
This economic stability was reflected in consumer optimism which saw an uplift of 7
points to 79. All consumer measures improved including job prospects, state of
personal finances and consumers believing it is a good time to buy the things they
want or need.
Desmond Wang The Taiwan FMCG market softened in Q2 2017. However retailers and manufacturers
Managing Director, continued to drive momentum attracting consumers with new and innovative products
Taiwan in both Food and Non-Food categories.
One emerging trend that continues to grow is health. Consumers have an increasing
awareness on health and wellbeing with growing popularity of innovations including
additive-free and 100% natural ingredients offerings. Consumers are seeking more
information about the products they buy with 42% of consumers always reading
packaging or nutritional labels. Some manufacturers have changed their packages to
capture these changing consumer preferences.
Smaller manufacturers are seeing growth ahead of the market - especially small
brands within personal care categories. For instance, in beauty industries (skin-care
and cosmetic categories), leading brands are feeling the pressure of small brand
innovation highlighting Taiwanese consumers openness to trying new offerings.
E-commerce in Taiwan has evolved over the last ten years. While travel and
books/music/stationery are the most popular categories bought online, Beauty and
Personal Care, Household and Paper, and Packaged Grocery Food categories are
starting to attract more online shoppers. While the average share of online FMCG
categories in Taiwan is around 5%, online sales can account for up to 30% in Health
and Beauty related categories.
Overall, even though the population in Taiwan remains flat due to low birth rates, there
are still growing opportunities for retailers and manufacturers to tap into consumer
needs around health consciousness and willingness to try new products, ensuring
they deliver a value-added proposition to win the market.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

109 111 114


108 107
2.8
2.6
76 75 79
2.1 2.1 73 72
1.7 1.8
1.3
1.1
0.7 0.8 0.6
-0.2 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017

GDP (% change pa) AP TW


Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

5.7% 5.6%
5.4%
4.6%
4.0% 4.1% 4.1%
3.8%
4.8% 4.4%
5.0%
2.7% 3.7%
3.9% 2.9% 0.7%
2.7%
1.7%
1.1%
1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0%
1.1% 0.4%

-0.5%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

FMCG momentum slowed in Q2 2017 after an artificial high in 2016 following


packaged Food categories rebound from food safety scandals in 2015

TOTAL TAIWAN CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

19%
4.2%

3.3%
81%

Modern Trade Traditional Trade

Modern Trade growth driven by expansion in the number of Chain


Super stores compared to last year.

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL TAIWAN SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

4.0%
2.4% -0.5%
34% 5.3%
15% 4.4%
13% 6.5%
5% 2.4%
4% -1.2%
8% 1.6%
1% -1.7%
17% 3.1%

Total FMCG Baby Foods Beverage Confectionary & Snack

Household Food Nutrition Supplement Household Paper Household Product

Medicine Application Personal Care

Product innovation in Beverages has been a key growth driver for


total FMCG.
TOTAL TAIWAN MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

4.0%
21%
26% 4.9%

3.0%
9% 1.6%

3.0%
20%
22% 6.6%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

Small manufacturers have performed strongly ahead of others, due to


effective innovation and marketing campaigns

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


THAILAND SNAPSHOT
Thailands economy grew 3.7% in Q2 2017, led by a growth in the agricultural and
tourism-oriented service sectors. Private consumption expanded by 3%, compared to
3.2% growth in Q1 driven by increased expenditure on durable goods and services, an
expansion in personal loans and lower inflation rates due predominantly to cheaper
petrol prices and fresh food.
Thailand continues to be one of the most optimistic countries in the region but despite
the positive economy, consumer confidence declined 3 points (since Q4 2016) to 107
Somwalee points. The economy, job security and debt top the list of concerns for Thais in Q2
Limrachtamorn 2017. During the ongoing period of economic uncertainty, a rise in household debt has
Managing Director, caused households to be more sensitive to the movement of interest rates which is
Thailand impacting spending. The rise in household debt may also explain why majority of Thais
(69%) are putting spare cash into saving while over half intend to cut down on out of
home entertainment and spend less on new clothes to cut back on their expenses.
In FMCG, value growth contracted -5.7% in Q2 2017 primarily because of reduced
sales in Alcohol and Cigarettes (-12%), and Non-Alcoholic beverages (-7%) during the
quarter. Lower temperatures as well as earlier and heavier rainfall contributed to a
decrease in beverage consumption this summer as well as the impact of back door
sales activity being withdrawn through super/hypermarkets. Across retail channels,
convenience is the only channel with positive growth (+3%) in Q2. Recent store
expansion (+4% year-on-year) is driving this growth, but also is leading to lower sales
per store.
High levels of household debt will likely lead to cautious consumer spending and slow
FMCG growth in the year ahead. To penetrate a highly fragmented market under these
circumstances, cost management is the key to sustainable growth. Mass market
strategies are not sustainable in this environment. Instead businesses need to identify
specific areas of potential growth using a more granular approach to target unique
customer segments, regions, or districts and determine the optimal ways to trigger
demand. The governments recent regulation to introduce a new sugar tax on non-
alcoholic beverages in September 2017 will have far reaching implications across many
categories such as soft drink, energy drink, and fruit juice. Manufacturers need to
proactively address the growing health concerns of consumers to ensure the longevity
of their business models.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

114
111 110
3.7 3.7 109
3.1 3.3 108 108
3.1 3.1 107 107
105

101

1.3
0.7 0.1
0.3 0.3
-0.5 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017

GDP (% change pa) AP TH


Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)
Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS
(weighted average)

MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

5.0%
4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 4.0%
2.8%
2.8% 1.5% 3.0%
3.1% 3.1% 2.9%
1.8% 2.3% 2.5% 1.8%
1.3% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0%
0.7%
-2.1% -1.0%
-5.9%
-2.5% -3.8% -6.7%
-4.1%
-4.4%
-5.7%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

FMCG shows negative growth for three consecutive quarters due to


sluggish sales of high-value categories such as Cigarettes, Alcoholic
and Non-Alcoholic Beverages
TOTAL THAILAND CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

-4.8%
47%
53%

-0.4%

Traditional Trade Modern Trade

Modern Trade slows due to less promotion and back door


activities in Super/Hypermarkets; while Traditional Trade faces a
challenge with lower spend in store

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL THAILAND SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

-2.5%
13%
0.7%
32% 5%
1.4%
8%
5.7%
-4.0%

16% 25% -0.1%


-6.2%

Total FMCG Personal Care Household Care


Impulse Beverage Other Foods
Alcoholic & Tobacco

Impulse categories - Snack, Biscuit, Ice Cream, Candy and Chocolate perform
well due to new product launches and promotions, especially in convenience

TOTAL THAILAND MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE - FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

14% -2.5%

-6.9%
35%
19% -4.3%

0.1%

1.2%
18% 13%
2.3%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

The top five manufacturers show a decline due to their reliance on


Alcohol and Cigarette categories

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


VIETNAM SNAPSHOT
Vietnams GDP grew by 5.7% in the first six months of 2017, below the initial target
of 6.7%. This was due to a number of factors such as a slowdown in the industrial
sector, a pork surplus crisis following Chinas import restrictions, lower rice output
and a widening trade deficit.

In spite of this, consumer confidence remains positive at 117 points a record peak
over the last 5 years. However job security is becoming a growing concern for
Huong Quynh Vietnamese consumers.
Nguyen
Managing Director, FMCG performance decelerated slightly in Q2 2017 after reaching record peaks in
Vietnam the previous 2 quarters. This performance can mostly be attributed to the low
season after Lunar New Year period. The Vietnam market has fluctuated over the
last 2 years and future performance needs to be monitored carefully for the
remainder of the year. Manufacturers should actively seek growth opportunities;
identifying white spaces of unmet consumer need and tapping into new markets and
categories to drive new sources of growth and sustainable business into the future.

Rural Vietnam continues to be a high potential opportunity for many manufacturers.


While the urban sector has grown 5.1% this quarter compared to same time year
ago, rural area has seen stronger growth at 6.5%, accounting for almost 58% of
total FMCG sales.

More than 60% of Vietnams population live in the rural areas and there are
excellent opportunities for companies in this sector. Urbanisation, internet access
and smartphones are changing the lives of rural consumers. Increasingly connected
and exposed to a diversified media world, rural consumers are changing their
lifestyles and becoming more like their urban counterparts in towns and big cities.
More surprisingly, rural consumers do not only desire quality but they are willing to
pay more for products that offer it. With many of these rural areas opening up with
greater accessibility than ever before, there is ample opportunity for manufacturers
and retailers to find fertile ground with a new customer base.

COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMY WATCH NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

117

6.8 114
6.6
6.2 112
5.5 5.6 111
5.1 5.0
109
4.4 108 109
107 107 107
3.3
2.2 2.8
1.3

Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017

GDP (% change pa) AP VN

Inflation,consumer prices (% change pa)

Source Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS (VIETNAM 6 CITIES)
(weighted average)

MAT YAMAT TY Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17

7.3%
6.7%
6.3%
6.0% 5.6%
5.4%
4.8% 4.7%
3.8% 4.3% 6.0% 5.5%
5.0% 5.2%
4.6% 4.9%
3.9% 2.9%
3.5%
2.3%
1.3% 1.2%
0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7%
0.6%

Unit Value Growth Volume Growth Nominal Value Growth

Growth slowed down in Q217 due to low season following Tet. Majority
of growth is from overall consumption growth and less price fluctuation

TOTAL VIETNAM (6 CITIES) CHANNEL PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MAT Q2-2017

10%

5.5%

10.2%
90%

TRADITIONAL TRADE MODERN TRADE

Modern Trade continued to grow and store numbers expand


especially with new entrants in smaller formats.

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


TOTAL VIETNAM (6 CITIES) SUPER CATEGORIES PERFORMANCE

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

6.0%
3%
8% 6.0%
6% 6.1%
41% 10.4%
15%
2.1%
7.8%
15% 8.2%
13%
-5.8%

Total FMCG Beverage Cigarette Foods


Milk Bases Home Care Personal Care Baby Care

Beverage continued to dominate FMCG, but experienced slower


growth than Food

TOTAL VIETNAM (6 CITIES) MANUFACTURER PERFORMANCE FMCG

VALUE CONTRIBUTION NOMINAL VALUE GROWTH


MAT Q2-2017 MAT Q2-2017

6% 6.0%
13% 6.6%
36% 6.0%

5.8%
28% 2.1%

11.6%
17%

Total FMCG Top 1-5 Top 6-10 Top 11-30 Top 31-100 100+

Smaller local manufacturers carved a path for growth given depth


of understanding the nuances of local consumers and retailers.

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company


WHOS FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
Without a doubt, winners can be found across all sectors and markets - big and small, global, regional. But
where we see continued and sustained growth across the region is among local players in the region. This
section showcases see how players are performing across individual markets. See the Big Picture on Page 3
for the full story.

AUSTRALIA
Click on icon for
industry expert view on
% SHARE OF FMCG % VALUE GROWTH Global vs Local brands

31%
LOCAL
11%
REGIONAL 4%
3%
58% MNC
-4%

FMCG MNC REGIONAL LOCAL

*SUPER CATEGORY NOT AVAILABLE

CHINA
% SHARE OF FMCG

39%
63% 68% 68% 78% 7%
7% 8% 8%
0% 54%
30% 24% 24% 21%

FMCG FOOD BEVERAGE HOUSEHOLD PERSONAL


LOCAL
REGIONAL
MNC
% VALUE GROWTH
46%

18%
10% 12% 7% 8% 9%
3% 5%

-6% -4% -2% -5% -8% -9%


Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014
* See Appendix for Methodology
Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
WHOS FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
HONG KONG
% SHARE OF FMCG
20% 18% 22% 28% 17%
10% 7% 6% 15%
29%
70% 74% 72% 68%
43%

LOCAL
REGIONAL
MNC
% VALUE GROWTH
11%10%
6% 4% 6% 8% 7%
2% 1% 4% 4%

-4% -4%
-6% -7%

INDIA
% SHARE OF FMCG

31% 42% 33%


50% 0%
76% 0% 5%
2%
69% 58% 62%
48% 0%
24%

LOCAL
REGIONAL
MNC
% VALUE GROWTH
41%
30% 34%
19% 21% 18% 16%
8% 12% 10% 12% 9%
0%

-2% -8%

Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
WHOS FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
INDONESIA
% SHARE OF FMCG

27%
56% 49% 56%
79% 20%
1%
9% 8%
50% 53%
36% 11% 36%
10%
LOCAL
REGIONAL
MNC
% VALUE GROWTH 42%
30% 34% 30%31%
25%27% 26%
16% 18% 16%13% 18% 16%
7%

MALAYSIA
% SHARE OF FMCG

30% 26% 17% 14%


46% 23% 15%
17% 32%
4%
60% 71%
53% 50% 42%

LOCAL
REGIONAL
MNC
% VALUE GROWTH
18% 17%
10% 9% 11%
7% 9% 7% 7% 7% 8% 6%
3% 3% 1%

Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
WHOS FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
NEW ZEALAND
% SHARE OF FMCG
15%
0%
44% 43% 43% 42%
0%
13% 14% 26% 85%
43% 58%
34% 31%

LOCAL
REGIONAL
MNC

% VALUE GROWTH
18% 17%
10% 9% 11%
7% 9% 7% 7% 7% 8% 6%
3% 3% 1%

PHILIPPINES
% SHARE OF FMCG

27% 28% 23%


40% 0% 0%
62% 6%
4%
5% 67% 72% 77%
55%
32%

LOCAL
REGIONAL
MNC
% VALUE GROWTH
31%
24%
19% 17%
14% 13% 15% 12% 11%
11% 7% 10% 6%
0% 0%

Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
WHOS FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
SINGAPORE
% SHARE OF FMCG

28% 23% 22% 20%


37%
23% 18%
23% 32%
21%
49% 55% 62%
42% 45%

LOCAL
REGIONAL
MNC
% VALUE GROWTH

1% 9% 9%

-4%
-18% -12% -11%-2% -3% -10% -5% -13%
-25%
-34% -41%

SOUTH KOREA
% SHARE OF FMCG

51% 41%
72% 79% 72% 6%
8%
14% 14% 41% 53%
14% 17% 14%
4%
LOCAL
REGIONAL
MNC

% VALUE GROWTH
13%
3% 6% 4%
1% 3% 2%

-1% -3%
-5% -7% -7% -3%
-12% -12%
Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
WHOS FINDING GROWTH?
MULTINATIONAL, REGIONAL OR LOCAL PLAYERS
TAIWAN
% SHARE OF FMCG
12%
45% 52% 37%
58% 36%
23%
28% 20%
30% 40% 52%
27% 28% 12%

LOCAL
REGIONAL
MNC
% VALUE GROWTH
14%
6% 8% 7% 4%
3% 6% 2%
5% 2%

-2% 0% -3% -5% -7%

THAILAND
% SHARE OF FMCG
15% 15%
39% 49% 48% 21%
26%
17% 10%
25% 64%
44% 59%
43%
26%

LOCAL
REGIONAL

% VALUE GROWTH MNC

9% 9%
8%
7%
5% 6% 6%
4%
2% 2% 2% 2%
1% 2%

-1%
Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
VIETNAM
% SHARE OF FMCG
23% 8%
42% 45% 5% 26%
69%
11% 2%
72% 66%
47% 21% 53%
10%

% VALUE GROWTH
50%

10% 7% 6% 7% 6% 11% 13% 13% 9%


2%

-1% -1% -2% -7%

Contact your local Nielsen representative for more information

Nielsen Analysis: % Share 52 w/e Q3 2016 | % Value Growth 52 w/e Q3 2016 vs Q3 2014

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
WHOS FINDING GROWTH?
METHODOLOGY
Analysis referenced in The Big Picture and country specific details comes from a
deep dive analysis of Top 100 Manufacturers in each local market, which were
classified into the following segments based on Total FMCG data from Q3 2016.
These manufacturers accounting for approximately 85% of Total FMCG. Alcohol and
Tobacco is excluded from this analysis but is available on request to local client
service.

Local player: 80%+ share of sales in one market (e.g. Indofood, JS Unitrade,
Monde Nissin and Wings)

Regional player: less than 80% share of sales in one market and active in 3 or
more markets (e.g. Kao, Mayora, Unicharm and Universal Robina Corporation)

Global: big multinational corporations (e.g. Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson,


Kimberly-Clark, Mars, Nestl PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser and
Unilever)

Definitions of FMCG vary by market as it does for Quarter by Numbers and can be
seen in the QBN standard Definitions. For the purpose of this analysis we grouped
all categories into 4 groups Food, Beverage, Household and Personal as indicated
by the icons respectively below.

TOTAL FMCG FOOD BEVERAGES

HOUSEHOLD PERSONAL CARE

Copyright 2017 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES
Economy Watch
% GDP per annum growth sourced from Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Inflation, consumer prices % change per annum sourced from Economist Intelligence Unit
(EIU) unless sourced otherwise.

Consumer Confidence Index - Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China
survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate
degrees of optimism/pessimism. Q1 2017 CCI results are unavailable, resulting in
comparisons made to Q4 2016.

Myanmar Consumer Confidence is an annual consumer sentiment dipstick provided in Q4


2016leveraging a face to face methodology across 6 key cities

FMCG Market Dynamics - compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the
Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in the
mentioned APAC markets. The FMCG definition is based on the widest possible basket of
product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and
channels. Japan data from INTAGE a Japan based partner sourcing RMS data to Nielsen
Japan

Nominal value growth: Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by


the total basket of reported product categories
Unit value growth ( price change):
The change in average price per unit may result from:
Price changes of individual products
Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less
promotions, etc.
Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or
convenience outlets, etc.
Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result
of market dynamics.
The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience cost of living in their actual
grocery shopping behaviour.
Volume growth: Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products

Super Category Performance definition of Super Categories are based on local market
definitions

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