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Ian Douglas
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PII: S2212-4209(17)30259-5
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.024
Reference: IJDRR653
To appear in: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Cite this article as: Ian Douglas, Flooding in African cities, scales of causes,
teleconnections, risks, vulnerability and impacts, International Journal of
Disaster Risk Reduction, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.024
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Flooding in African cities, scales of causes, teleconnections, risks, vulnerability
and impacts.
Ian Douglas
ian.douglas@manchester.ac.uk
1
Abstract
Understanding what can be done about flooding involves examining how everyday
urban activities exacerbate flood risks, and how to reduce the inequitable exposure to
flood risks at all scales from the individual household to national governments and
international river basin management. Those who change the landscape in ways that
make flooding worse are not usually those who suffer the consequences of such
changes. Understanding of the inter-relations between both geophysical processes and
human drivers and human victims at multiple scales is required. Teleconnections mean
that the global, the rural and the urban all affect one another. Across Africa, as in other
continents, flooding may arise locally within built-up areas from debris blocking
streams and from overflowing sewers. Nevertheless, many cities are flooded by major
rivers that carry extreme flows of water from surrounding regions and even distant
mountains. The causes and impacts of floods, human vulnerability, possibilities of risk
reduction and political and management responsibilities vary from the household and
community levels up to sub-continental hydrologic systems and the global climate
system. Co-ordinated action must take account of the differing scales of flood problems
ranging from those arising from highly localised thunderstorms to the huge flood flows
on major rivers produced by tropical cyclones. Urban flood management needs local,
regional or national action at appropriate scales, with communities dealing with
problems entirely with their areas, local governments acting on issues that are totally
within their boundaries and national governments or international river basin
organizations dealing with problems across many administrations.
1. Introduction
Flooding may occur many times a month in parts of many African cities, usually through
rainfall that overflows from channels, or even does not reach defined channels. Heavy
rain may also cause groundwater levels to rise to the surface, thus releasing subsurface
water that begins to flood normally dry valley floors. Settlements on sea or lake shores
Several different types of flooding can affect African cities: pluvial flooding from
torrential rain that reaches the ground more quickly than it can infiltrate or flow away
downslope; groundwater flooding where the normally subsurface water table rises to
the ground surface and water emerges into basements and ground-level rooms in
2
buildings; flooding from overflowing drains and channels that have insufficient capacity
to evacuate all the water which flows into them; flooding from major rivers that have
brought huge volumes of water from areas, maybe many tens, or even hundreds, of
kilometres upstream; or shoreline inundation from large lakes or seas during unusual
Although the water is in immediate cause of inundation, the water flows are produced
by geophysical events, usually rain or shoreline waves. However, the actual height and
extent of any given flood is determined by the nature of the ground surface, the
dimensions of the channels or coasts along which flood flows develop and by local
obstructions to water movement. Such ground conditions are the products of many
different human actions that change the land cover, alter the ability of water to infiltrate
and impede the flow of water along channels. Collectively such actions can be termed
3
Thunderstorm flooding and culverts
Table 1 Geophysical factors and human activities affecting flooding at different scales
In Africa, most rural settlements in riverine or coastal wetlands are at risk of flooding.
In built-up urban areas, inadequate drainage puts thousands at risk of flooding from
frequent short duration, but high intensity, thunderstorm rains. For those whose homes
are effected every time it rains, such flash floods are an intolerable risk that reinforces
impoverishment, insecurity and ill-health. Vulnerability in the face of these flood risks is
closely related to the ability to cope. Poor people are usually far more vulnerable to
floods and their impacts than those who have more financial resources. The impacts of
flooding on urban people stem from both local damage to property, housing, transport,
urban service access and urban agriculture, and indirect effects of flooding in rural areas
through disruption of food supplies and the movement of raw materials and goods. Events at
These complex impacts stem from multiple causes operating at varying scales in different
locations. Most urban social and environmental issues, including flooding, are
interconnected. Their drivers and effects cross many time and space scales [1]. Such
interdependent connections are now frequently termed teleconnections [2]. The concept of
4
spatially and temporally large-scale anomalies that influence the variability of the
atmospheric circulation [3] [4] and thus such terrestrial phenomena as wildfires [5].
Increasingly, hydrologists are investigating how rainfall and river flows in Africa, for
example on the Nile [6], Limpopo [7], Niger and Volta [8], are teleconnected to the intensity
with land use and land cover changes, including those driven by mining, forestry, agriculture
and urbanisation. Such changes, perhaps hundreds of miles away from a particular city, can
have many impacts on urban households, enterprises, infrastructure and public facilities. The
examination of urban teleconnections can help to establish the effects of land use and land
cover changes in one part of a river basin on water availability for irrigation or urban use, or
on river channel capacity for flood waters, in another area further downstream.
People now discuss economic and societal teleconnections which are seen as analogous to
physical teleconnections, but are focused on the human-created linkages via people,
structures, institutions and processes [9]. These are readily seen in terms of urban food
supplies through the impact of loss of crops during floods and droughts in distant regions on
the availability and price of individual foodstuffs in town and cities. They are also evident
when major manufacturing facilities are put out of action by floods, fires, or earthquakes. In
many instances global markets are affected, as well as employment not only in the affected
locality but also in the places from which the enterprise drew components and raw materials
character of flood problems at any particular locality, particularly of the way actions by one
part of society in one area can adversely affect and entirely different group in another area.
5
Figure 1. Teleconnections related to flooding between two areas, showing the links between
flood-related risks and other socio-economic risks that influence the impact of floods on
communities; examples of the types of process, structures and substances involved in
teleconnections; and the existing and possible future adaptation issues that will alter flood
risks and affect the teleconnections. The areas could be at any scale, from the effects of
atmospheric circulations on monsoons and tropical cyclones to the impacts of the
development of a new subdivision on an urban stream a few kilometres upstream of an
existing low-lying settlement already prone to flooding. (In part based on a figure in Moser
and Hart, 2015 [9]).
To improve readiness to cope with future flooding, the goal of this paper is to identify
flood hazard reduction and increased resilience to future flooding that improves equity
6
2. Present understanding of the dimensions of flooding in African cities
African cities face major challenges associated with globalisation, social, economic and
political change and environmental risks [11]. Many low-income urban people in Africa are
exposed to health risks resulting from poor housing, water and sanitation; livelihood risks
from insecure employment and work-place hazards; the impacts of natural disasters that
insecurity and unequal treatment [11]. For people in low-lying, crowded housing, frequent
localised nuisance flooding is often part of daily life, causing major disruptions for traffic
in most African cities, affecting both local residents and commuters from other parts of
the city. In poorer settlements, such as the 12 Mile settlement, Lagos, flash flooding can
submerge entire streets causing traffic jams on main roads [12]. In Benin City [13] and
Kampala, annual flooding from extreme convective storm rainfalls with an average
duration of two hours or more increased from five events in 1993 to ten in 2014 [15].
People cope with such local floods at the household and community level through well-
established loss minimisation and property protection strategies. Some urban householders
have raised houses on stilts and obtained flood insurance [15]. In Kampala wetland areas,
flood barriers and over 60 % built resilient structures, used soil to raise ground levels,
or placed valuables above the floor [16]. However, such individual householder actions
7
are seldom co-ordinated. Protection of one dwelling may lead to deeper flooding of a
neighbouring property. In Kampala [16], Dar-es-Salaam [17] and Nairobi [18], such
Community level action is often difficult. In the multi-ethnic, tenant- dominated urban
of ownership are often lacking. Social resilience is weak, communities seldom being able
to mobilise their own resources quickly and effectively. The social capacity to
anticipate, mitigate, adapt to, and recover from flooding is thus far lower than it could
be [19].
cohesion and action. Sometimes external civil society organisations have prompted
flood mitigation work, but such organisations have criticised with requests that
communities be allowed to improve their own lives and environment in their own ways
[20].
dwellings are treated as illegal occupation of land which can best be dealt with by
removing people to other sites. In other cases, for example in Old Fadama, Accra,
political influence plays a major role [21], with both municipal and national efforts to
Municipal flood mitigation, where it exists, is mainly concerned with structural works to
contain and evacuate flood water quickly. Often such works defend prestigious city centre
8
buildings, pushing floodwater downstream more quickly and at greater depths. Below the
flood walls, excess water simply spreads out onto the floodplain, inundating cropland and
settlements to greater extents than previously. Such problem shifting, rather than problem
communities suffer and more affluent groups benefit [23]. For example, in Lagos, flood
prevention and urban development schemes since 1990 have led to much demolition and
eviction in the Makoko and Badia settlements [24]. State governments often adopt slum
clearance as their preferred flood prevention strategy), rather than developing multi-faceted,
The main goal of river basin management is usually to ensure reasonably equitable shares of
water supplies for agriculture; urban activities; hydropower generation; and instream
ecological and fishery benefits. Dealing with flooding that connects rivers, riparian areas,
and floodplains, shifting organisms, debris, sediments, pollutants and dissolved substances, is
often a secondary concern. In Europe getting all riparian states to implement integrated land
and water planning to mitigate flooding is proving difficult. In Africa, the situation is even
In Africa, in 1991, Scudder [25] asked why flooding was being neglected in African
development planning. Each major African international river basin (Fig. 2) has an
organisation embracing all the riparian states that is usually primarily concerned with the
equitable sharing of a basins water resources between those states. Such sharing may be
9
problematic where upstream states receive most of the rainfall and downstream states rely on
the river for most, if not all their urban and agricultural water supplies.
In the worlds arid and semiarid zones, including much of Africa, mountains are often the
source of 50 to 90 per cent of the water supplies sustaining rural and urban life. The
highlands of East Africa feed the Nile, while those of Guinea supply the upper Niger and the
Drakensberg send water to the Orange. Such humid mountain areas have often been
described as the water towers of the continents (Fig.2). Globally, the 50 per cent of the
land occupied by mountains supplies essential or a major part of the water needed by
downstream areas [26]. Changes to the way water is retained in the mountains affect events
downstream. Many of the high mountain glaciers and long-lasting snowpacks are retreating
or have melted. Deforestation and highland agriculture may reduce soil moisture levels.
Thus, both climate and local land use and land cover changes in the water tower areas are
altering river regimes, sediment volumes, and flood magnitudes and frequencies [27],
In seasonally wet areas of tropical Africa, the annual flooding of riparian wetlands supports
both vast biodiversity and many human activities such as fisheries, floodplain recession
agriculture, and tourism. Nearly 20 million people, over half the total population of the
Zambezi basin, live in or around its wetlands [28]. Sustaining such wetland populations and
their agricultural productivity requires integrated water resources management at the river
basin scale.
10
Fig. 2 Africas major river basins and upland water towers.
The Nile is the clear-cut case of equity issues, where Egypt and Sudan have opposed a new
basin management framework that asks them to share more of the water with upstream states
[29]. Sudan has to cooperate with upstream states, notably Ethiopia, to solve siltation, water
quality and seasonal flooding problems [30]. Climate change demands flexible water
allocation, biodiversity, water quality protection, flood control and infrastructure maintenance
[31].
11
Appropriate soil conservation and vegetation management could reduce sediment-laden
stormwater discharges, as demonstrated in the Congo basin around the Lukaya River basin
immediately south of Kinshasa [32]. However, floodbank (leve) construction may produce a
false sense of security, as occurred in Niger [33] where in the 1970-90 dry years people
moved on to floodplain areas they had previously avoided, only to find that much wetter
conditions after 1990 produced serious flooding [34]. Future flood risk modelling should
include land-use change, climatic uncertainty, population density and vulnerability [35].
River basin managers are normally responsible for warning riparian urban areas of oncoming
floods. While several such systems exist in Africa, most African meteorological and
hydrological institutions accept that the work of river basin managers would be improved by
complementary flood forecasting and early warning systems. However, often the expertise
Understanding what can be done about flooding involves examining how everyday
urban activities exacerbate flood risks, and how to reduce the inequitable exposure to
flood risks at all scales from the individual household to national governments and
international river basin management. Those who make flooding worse by changing the
landscape do not usually suffer the consequences of such changes. Comprehending the
inter-relations between both geophysical processes and human drivers and human
3.1. Localised flooding within the city. Pluvial flooding where stormwater runoff
does not enter stream channels or flooding from small streams that have fully urbanized
12
catchments, are caused by combinations of geophysical events and human activities. Paved
and roofed surfaces allow almost all the rain that falls of them to runoff over the surface, a
runoff coefficient of 0.95 (i.e. 95% of the rain flows over the surface to rivers) occurring on
experimental asphalt surfaces. The coefficient increases as rainfall intensity and volume
increase. With an average rainfall intensity of over 50 mm hr-1 for four hours or more, runoff
coefficients on paved surfaces would be likely to exceed 0.95 [37], compared to around 0.25
in a forest.
concrete walls, leaving insufficient room for floodwaters causing stormwater to spill into
surrounding built-up areas [37]. Local human actions greatly increase the flood hazard in
such situations.
3.2. Flooding along major rivers flowing through cities. Rural land uses and
extractive industries, such as mining and quarrying, upstream of urban areas affect the flood
behaviour of the urban reaches of rivers. Movement of material from the countryside and
from other parts of a city, landfilling, waste dumping and construction may greatly decrease
channel capacities along African urban rivers [38]. Bridges, pipelines and culverts may leave
in sufficient space for floodwater. Urban embankments or levees often result in higher
velocity flows that create problems in suburban and peri-urban areas further downstream.
13
3.2.1. Antecedent conditions Flooding is also greatly affected by events that have
affected the ground conditions in the days and weeks preceding a major rain event or
shoreline storm surge. These antecedent conditions cause wide variations in the amount
of a given rainfall that runs off rapidly into rivers or how far a storm surge travels inland.
If groundwater levels are high and soil moisture is at maximum capacity, even moderate
amounts of rain can generate a large flood (Fig. 3). However, the development of a very
dry, crusted soil after a prolonged period without rain, or after a wildfire associated
with severe drought conditions, can also rapidly convert rainfall to runoff (because the
flowing to rivers and thus the potential for flooding (After Britton et al., 1993 [39])
Particularly severe flooding may arise from the teleconnection of two or more extreme
events, such as exceptional rainfall in the headwaters of a major river that creates a
14
flood which reaches the coastal region just as a powerful cyclone adds heavy prolonged
rain to the already overflowing river: a geophysical event in one area having severe
consequences elsewhere. Combinations of high tides and heavy rain often affect coastal
cities, as in Lagos on July 10, 2011 when drainage channels and coastal defences were
overwhelmed and over one hundred people died, thousands were displaced and property
In February 2007 in Mozambique heavy rains upstream caused the Zambezi river to begin to
flood and evacuation of people from floodplain areas was started. Some 130.000 people
displaced and another 122,000 were affected. On 22 February, Cyclone Favio crossed the
coast 440 km south of the Zambezi delta causing widespread rain over already saturated areas
as well as wind damage to coastal settlements. Approximately 134,000 people suffered from
this second natural disaster with key infrastructure and essential services damaged and crops
destroyed [41].
Flooding affects small areas for short periods of time in countless places daily, but major
river basin flooding of the scale that affected people along the Limpopo River in
Mozambique in 2000 and along the Zambezi in 2008 may only occur once in 25 or 30 years.
Damage and disruption of national life from a single event of this magnitude has a far greater
effect on regional and national economies than from the frequent localised, small-scale
events. Psychologically however, the misery of being likely to be flooded every time it rains
is a different dimension of the flood problem. In flood mitigation and adaptation, strategies
the whole range of flood events have to be considered and suitable measures for each scale of
magnitude and frequency have to be developed. The different scales of floods and associated
15
risk in terms of their magnitudes and frequencies of occurrence, and the intensity, depth,
duration and spatial extent of the rain event (Table 2) and the resultant river discharges along
Although readily available free, global mapping data permits large scale flood risk estimation
everywhere, uncertainty in flood protection levels affects the reliability of such assessments
[42]. National flood maps, where available, are used in different ways, from raising
Global remote sensing data has been used successfully at the river basin scale in parts of the
Lake Victoria catchment, to implement hydrologic models that can predict the spatial extents
of floods [43]. However, regional flood risk assessment involves considering the
characteristics of channels, flood protection systems and their operation during events. At
present, in Africa most flood hazard mapping relies on digital elevation models that
16
determine where channels would exist in the topography but do not consider the character of
Local risk assessment in urban areas has to take account of specific locations, buildings and
human responses, especially where water is likely to when channels, culverts or sewers
overflow. Participatory mapping using local knowledge, as carried out in Kibera, Nairobi
(www.mapkibera.org), can identify which people need evacuation during a major flood.
Mapping the space for water in built-up and cultivated parts of floodplains helps to decide
where interventions are needed [19]. Community involvement both informs planners and
hydraulic engineers and raises local peoples awareness of how activities encumber
stormwater runoff pathways and aggravate local flooding. Nevertheless, local mapping has to
be integrated into wider mapping of flood risk areas and drainage routes for the whole urban
area. Such connections are particularly important for assessing changes in risk from
development on slopes further upstream and the consequent storm drain flows and channel
enlargement. Good mapping should also identify areas suitable for storm water detention
basins and other elements of sustainable urban drainage [45]. A well-developed link between
the global, river basin and urban areas scales would permit rapid flood risk, hazard, exposure
and vulnerability assessments to help local policy makers in localities with little data [42].
The diversity and effectiveness of urban governance (which include actions concerning
institutional vulnerability) and the condition of the local environment (physical vulnerability)
greatly affect how urban people are affected by and cope with geophysical events. In most
tropical African cites, large households, who are tenants, have a low level of education, and
17
5. Impacts
The cumulative impacts of flooding weaken households, communities, whole cites and
national economies. Published estimates may be inaccurate, many impacts going unrecorded,
but two examples may help to give a broad idea of possible magnitudes of disruption of
human life and economic losses. In the Sahel of Niger 79 damaging rainfall and flood events
in 47 communities between 1989 and 2004 destroyed 5,580 houses, killed 18, left 27,289
homeless, and caused over US$4 million worth of damage [47]). Individual major events can
be more damaging: the 2015 Malawi floods displaced 230,000 people, over 200 were
development/2015/feb/10/malawi-floods-devastation-far-worse-than-first-thought).
Disruption of economic activities including agriculture and tourism can be extensive [48]. In
parts of Nigeria, floods in 2012 caused food prices to rise and reduced crude oil production
by 500,000 barrels per day [49]. Farmers are severely affected by both floods and droughts,
and their capacity to cope and adapt is limited. Crop failures translate almost directly into
severe food insecurity, for both rural and urban communities [50]. Flooding damages road
surfaces, increasing maintenance costs, thus reducing funds available for building new roads
[51]. This in turn means higher transport costs because journeys on poor roads take longer,
so increasing the costs of food and materials delivered to urban areas, particularly affecting
poor communities.
The effects of pluvial flooding at the household and community level are well-known, but the
disruption has far-reaching impacts on employment, education, health and safety. Local
stream flooding, particularly at inadequate culverts and bridges disrupts traffic and thus has
18
6.Adaptation
surroundings, especially in terms of raising ground around dwellings and building protective
barriers.
several places such as Kibera [19] and Mathare [52] in Nairobi. Community adaptive
organizations; support from local civil society and state institutions; and awareness of flood
threats. Training in flood response methods; enhancing coping capacities; and targeting the
most vulnerable communities and environments aid impact reduction and strengthen
adaptation [53].
As the locus of adaptation planning, funding and decision-making, the readiness of city
governments to enhance resilience and create inclusive cities is a key factor in adapting to
floods. Almost every major tropical African city has some kind of instrument for evaluating
damage and mapping risk and needs, and two-thirds of cities have planning tools [54].
Although they have to follow institutional, regulatory and legal frameworks, municipal
authorities should use local and scientific knowledge that can support decision-making on
flood adaptation [55]. Often, good urban adaptation practices at the community level are
unknown to people in other neighbourhoods and are not integrated with other actions.
19
Overall, for a more holistic and innovative approach to planning adaptation is needed to
Where independent, unintegrated measures are undertaken, maladaptive practices may occur.
Maladaptation refers to adaptation measures that increase vulnerability rather than reducing
it. In informal settlements, this easily occurs when measures to protect dwellings accelerate
the flow of stormwater into other homes and lead to higher water levels elsewhere. Storm
drains in new subdivisions can lead to communities further downslope being flooded more
frequently.
Most municipal authorities generally lack funds to undertake all desired flood mitigation
works. Collecting all local taxes properly requires innovation, such as that of the Kampala
Capital City Authority using mobile phones as part of a more efficient tax-collection system,
Burkina-Faso between the Bobo-Dioulasso Municipal Unit for the Management of Climate
Change and UN Habitats Cities and Climate Change Initiative shows how urban agriculture
and green infrastructure can be used to lessen the risk of flooding [57]. Not all projects may
improve sanitation, but sees flood alleviation as a secondary concern, noting that provision
was made for financing a tree planting program along the riparian zone to prevent
encroachment, help preserve the riparian zone, and sequester carbon. Wastewater
infrastructure was to be sited in areas less prone to flooding and river flow monitoring would
20
help in predicting floods [58]. However, this gradual improvement does not appear to be
The dependence of urban people on food from other areas implies that food security
considerations should be made explicit in the adaptation of the agriculture, forestry and
fisheries sectors to flooding in the face of climate change. This requires raising awareness of
policy-makers, providing incentives and promoting the most resilient food production
systems.
Urban flood adaptation needs local, regional or national action at appropriate scales, with
communities dealing with problems entirely with their areas, local governments acting on
issues that are totally within their boundaries and national governments or international river
basin organizations dealing with problems across many administrations (Fig 4). Each level of
responsibility would undertake and maintain a particular range of flood mitigation work (Fig
5)
21
Figure 4 Responsibilities for flood mitigation works at different scales
22
Government agencies are slowly recognising the importance of community organizations and
networks in preparedness and emergency response. Such collaborative actions should not
should work together to deliver flood mitigation and adaptation through local, regional or
national action at appropriate scales, with communities dealing with problems entirely with
their areas. Local governments will act on issues arising totally within their boundaries,
while national governments or international river basin organizations deal with problems
Because flooding elsewhere affects urban life in terms of food security, transport links and
energy and water supplies, further regional and national integrated for resilience planning is
needed. In large river basins flooding in sensitive agricultural areas can led to food shortages
and price rises that greatly affect the urban poor. After major floods, there is often initially a
regional dramatic rise in the rates of malnutrition which subsequently declines as a result of
short term and long-term food relief measures. Lessons may be learnt from places like Dhaka,
Bangladesh where emergency food supplies are kept to prevent malnutrition during major
7. Conclusions
Good practice examples abound in terms of local action and individual flood alleviation
procedures. Some municipal plans have multifunctional goals but others may be dominantly
single purpose. Too much academic research concentrates on simple procedures such as
digital elevation models for flood risk assessment and questionnaire surveys of flood losses
and flood adaptation actions. Few examine what specific factors cause individual flood event
at particular localities. Not many use participatory field investigations to inform stormwater
23
drainage improvements and to involve people in working together to clear local channels and
Wider scale collaboration is bedeviled by issues of how to get trust and co-operation between
sectors of urban society: how to overcome decades of social division and inequality. Mistrust,
such as the suspicion of local government by national governments and the suspicion of
NGOs by most African governments, makes effective working at different scales within any
city difficult. A key issue will always be that of getting people who are highly concerned
about the immediate livelihood and safety issues around their own homes and businesses to
see the bigger picture and to fit their flood mitigation and adaptation into the wider context.
The notions of teleconnections of geophysical and human systems at scales from the
household to the global are a key part of understanding and managing urban flood crises.
From climate change to household waste management, human actions aggravate the impacts
of geophysical events. The recognition that the victims of those impacts are usually not the
perpetrators of the aggravating actions is important for all sectors of society. However, it is
perhaps important to acknowledge that the global middle class which consumes a
disproportionate part of the worlds resources, probably contributes much more to the causes
and impacts of flooding than the poor, who are more likely to be the victims of flooding.
Acknowledgements
I thank colleagues at the UrbanARK conference in Malawi in February 2016 for their
discussions and suggestions on themes related to this paper; Arabella Fraser and an unknown
referee for their comments on drafts of the paper; colleagues from Action Aid and their urban
networks for discussions on urban responses to flooding in tropical African cities; Asenath
24
issues in Africa; and all those who have helped me with flooding projects in Australia,
Malaysia and the UK since 1966. I am most grateful for funding to support work on flooding
Council for Science (ICSU) grant to the Scientific Committee on Problems of the
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