Agri Insight

A Comprehensive Fundamental Analysis Report on Agri Commodities

SPICES 17 August 2010

Stocks Update Basis
Spices In Demat In Process Spices Benchmark Market Spot rate Futures Basis
Pepper 4267 0 Pepper Cochin 18600.00 19694 -1094.00
Jeera Unjha 13150.00 14409 -1259.00
Jeera 5833 256 Turmeric Nizamabad 15200.00 14390 810.00
Chilli 3696 0 Cardamom Vandanmedu 1480 0 1480.00

PEPPER
Review
The NCDEX pepper futures traded on a positive note during yesterday’s trading session on account of short
covering in August contract and extended buying in far month contracts at exchange platform as prices fell
during last week. Local demand at lower levels coupled with unavailability of MG-1 grade pepper at spot
market also supported the upside.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change OI % Change
Aug-10 19024 19410 18925 19322 1.89 3262 87.15 3866 -21.93
Sep-10 19175 19646 19175 19572 2.08 12749 197.60 10567 7.96
Oct-10 19500 19855 19400 19799 2.07 542 216.96 1728 5.62
Outlook
The pepper futures are expected to trade positive initially on today’s trading session on account of follow
through buying at exchange platform. However, prices may take correction during the day due to profit book-
ing at higher levels.
Indian pepper is being offered at $4375 per ton while Vietnam is offering at around $3780 per tone for
500 g/l and $4200 for ASTA grade , Indonesia at $3800 per ton, Brazil at $4150 per ton and Sri Lanka is
offering $ 3670 per ton for 500 g/l
Indian pepper exporters are not getting enough orders because of higher price compared to other coun-
tries
Prices quoted at spot market of Kochi were Rs.19,300 up by Rs.100 per quintal for MG-1 and Rs. 18,800
per quintal for Ungarbled pepper on Monday
At spot market local demand is good but MG-1 grade is not available for sell
As per Spices Board data, international price of Pepper in New York market was $4.52 per kg during the
week ended 6th August 2010, which was higher than $3.09 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 4267 tones as on 14th August 2010

TURMERIC
Review
Turmeric futures opened down during yesterday’s trading session but resumed the upside on account of cov-
ering of short positions at exchange platform as prices fell drastically during last few sessions. Turmeric Au-
gust contract hit 4% upper circuit while spot market was down due to lack of buying interest.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change OI % Change
Aug-10 13688 14106 13524 14106 4.01 4210 14.87 6615 -1.56
Sep-10 13166 13650 13002 13602 3.30 7050 127.79 4850 16.17
Outlook
Turmeric futures are expected to trade positive initially during today’s trading session due to extended buy-
ing at exchange platform. However, profit booking on yesterday’s gain and decreased spot demand amid in-
creased arrivals might support the down side during the day.
As per Andhra Pradesh Ministry of Agriculture, Acreage under turmeric sowing has increased to 0.61
lakh hectares from 0.44 lakh hectares in the same period last year
Prices quoted at spot markets of Nizamabad and Erode were Rs.14,400 down by Rs.400 per quintal and
Rs. 14,800 down by Rs.700 per quintal respectively
Arrivals reported at spot markets of Nizamabad and Erode were 500 bags and 5000 bags (each bag=70
kg) respectively
As per Spices Board data, international price of turmeric in New York market was $5.07 per kg during the
week ended 6th August 2010, which was higher than $2.09 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses is 4158 tones as on 14th August 2010

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JEERA
Review
Jeera futures traded on a positive note during Monday’s trading session due to follow through buying at ex-
change platform. Fundamentals of good domestic demand amid stable arrivals supported rise in prices. Ex-
port demand from EU countries and Bangladesh has added to the upside.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change OI % Change
Aug-10 14174 14268 14091 14123 -0.02 2325 5.30 3426 -12.89
Sep-10 14477 14665 14477 14562 0.40 7914 54.45 15888 0.42
Oct-10 14910 14924 14780 14818 -0.60 1224 6.53 8580 7.56
Outlook
The jeera futures are expected to trade firm on account of extended buying at exchange platform. Local de-
mand at lower level at spot market may also support the prices.
According to market sources, Syria prices are hovering around $3200-3300 per tonne while Indian pric-
es are quoting at $3050-3100 per tonne
Prices quoted at spot market of Unjha were Rs. 13,500 per quintal for uncleaned and Rs. 14,130-14,150
per quintal for NCDEX quality on yesterday
As per trade sources, the total stock position of jeera is at 11 lakh bags against 13-14 lakh bags reported
during last week
As per Spices Board data, international price of Jeera in New York market was $3.35 per kg during the
week ended 6th August 2010, which was higher than $2.69 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 5833 tonnes as on 14th August 2010
CHILLI
Review
The Chilli futures traded almost flat during yesterday’s trading session and ended the day slightly positive on
account fresh buying at lower levels. Spot market was also steady due to subdued demand amid increased
arrivals.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change OI % Change
Aug-10 4212 4212 4157 4179 0.00 800 -4.76 3210 -9.32
Sep-10 4290 4290 4255 4279 0.07 1475 18.95 7535 1.96
Outlook
The chilli futures are expected to trade lower today due to lack of buying interest. Fresh buying at lower le-
vels can be seen. However, subdued demand amid stable arrivals at spot market might support the down side.
As per Andhra Pradesh Ministry of Agriculture, Acreage under turmeric sowing has increased to 0.47
lakh hectares from 0.17 lakh hectares in the same period last year
Daily average arrivals at Guntur market were around 30,000-35,000 bags ( each bag=40 kg) and prices
were hovering in the range of Rs.3,900- 4,200 per quintal on Monday
Investors are in wait and watch situation as next crop estimates are likely to come in August end which
will clear picture of coming future trend
Trade sources report the stock position close to 1.15 crore bags (40Kg) across Andhra Pradesh with 40
lakh bags in Guntur alone
As per Spices Board data, international price of Chilli in New York market was $2.43 per kg during the
week ended 6th August 2010, which was higher than $2.32 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 3696 tonnes as per the latest update of 14th Au-
gust 2010

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 Agri Insight
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CEREALS & PULSES

Stocks Update Basis
Cerelas & Pulses In Demat In Process Cereals & pulses Benchmark Market Spot rate Futures Basis
Chana 46776 450570
Chana Delhi 2250 2244 6
Guarseed 22078 169
Guar Gum 19595 268 Guarseed Jodhpur 2216.55 2250 -33.45
Maize 0 0 Maize Nizamabad 1058.9 1061.5 -2.6
CHANA
Review
The chana futures prices went up marginally on Monday on firm demand in the spot market. Emergence of
festive demand for chana has been supporting the uptrend. However, higher stock and anticipation of bumper
pulses production is likely to limit the gains.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change OI % Change
Aug-10 2246 2260 2242 2249 0.31 21720 4.67 43530 -19.10
Sep-10 2298 2317 2295 2307 0.61 76320 46.01 162980 3.07
Oct-10 2373 2389 2369 2382 0.63 15200 76.13 75610 4.72
Outlook
The chana futures are expected to trade on a positive note during the day on follow through buying
Commencement of festive season especially Ramadan is likely to support the prices to trade higher
Spot markets are witnessing a steady demand from dal millers
Recent fall in price is a best buying opportunity, hence, we can expect strong buying interest
According to Union Ministry of Agriculture, Kharif pulses acreage as on 5th August is higher by 15% at
88.38 lakh hectares against 76.54 lakh hectares in the same period last year
The spot price of Chana at Delhi Lawrence Road Mandi is Rs2260 per quintal
NCDEX warehouse stock of Chana as on 14th August 2010 is 46,776 tons
SOY COMPLEX
Stocks Update Basis
Soy Complex Benchmark Market Spot rate Futures Basis
Soy complex In Demat In Process Soybean Indore 2075 2137.5 -62.5
Soybean 1072 602 Soy Oil Indore 497.75 504.4 -6.65
RM Seed Jaipur 551.8 556.45 -4.65
RM Seed 114439 3940 CPO Kandla 412.7 410.1 2.6
SOYBEAN
Review
The soybean futures prices on Indian bourses tumbled sharply on Monday on selling pressure. Weakness in
international oil and oilseeds market also had a bearish impact on Indian market. Prices fell sharply during
mid of the day after release of bearish edible oil import data. Edible oil import in July month increased drasti-
cally year-on-year resulting into fall in the prices. Investors sold futures anticipating market is at overbought
zone.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change OI % Change
Aug-10 2142.00 2150.00 2107.00 2112.00 -1.77 9190 -72.06 51510 -12.47
Sep-10 2167.00 2167.00 2114.00 2121.50 -2.10 99050 38.38 150460 -4.12
Oct-10 2147.00 2147.00 2106.00 2112.50 -1.52 36310 19.28 63140 6.76
Outlook
The soybean futures are expected to trade on a negative note on Tuesday on follow through selling and taking
cues from weak global market
Rise in edible oil import in July month is likely to add bearishness to the market
Investors and traders are likely to sell futures anticipating a good correction in the market
However, firm demand from crushers in the spot market is likely to limit the fall
Indian market is expected to move in line with weak overseas market
The CBOT soybean futures tumbled sharply on favourable weather forecast and moving in line with fal-
ling wheat price

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 Agri Insight
A Comprehensive Fundamental Analysis Report on Agri Commodities

The soybean acreage is down 4.22% Y/Y at 89.72 lakh hectares as on 5th August 2010 against 93.68 lakh
hectares
The soybean production in 2010-11 is expected to lower compared to last year due to lower acreage
In 2009-10, India’s soybean production was 85 lakh tons against 89 lakh tons in 2008-09
SOY OIL
Review
The refined soy oil futures fell sharply on Monday due to selling pressure and taking cues from weak overseas
market. Prices fell sharply during mid of the day after release of bearish edible oil import data. Edible oil im-
port in July month increased drastically year-on-year resulting into fall in the prices.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change OI % Change
Aug-10 520.00 520.00 509.50 509.85 -1.46 10160 -63.35 35780 -19.47
Sep-10 520.00 520.00 511.40 511.80 -1.42 109840 -0.75 147150 -4.04
Sep-10 509.70 515.30 509.30 511.55 0.89 43490 86.33 83850 11.37
Outlook
The refined soy oil futures are expected to trade on a negative note during the day on follow through selling
backed by weak demand. Weakness in international edible oil market is likely to have a bearish impact on
Indian market. Edible oil import in July month increased considerably, which is likely to weigh on the market.
According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, edible oil import in July surged 40% Y/Y. The fall in
Malaysian palm oil market due to poor export data is expected to pressurize the prices.

RM SEED
Review
The mustard seed futures tumbled sharply on Monday due to strong selling pressure. Weakness in soy com-
plex market had a bearish impact on the mustard seed market. Higher edible oil import in July month was
another bearish factor for the market.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change OI % Change
Aug-10 566.20 567.90 558.40 559.10 -1.47 37330 68.91 51260 -20.64
Sep-10 574.00 574.60 566.00 566.70 -1.43 87150 81.75 180920 -2.44
Oct-10 578.85 579.10 571.40 572.05 -1.30 16000 184.70 41360 6.85
Outlook
The mustard seed futures are projected to trade on a negative note on extended selling and taking cues from
weak soy market. Lack of buying interest in the spot market is likely to weigh on the market. Higher edible oil
import in July month is another bearish factor for the market. Indian market is likely to move in line with
weak overseas market also. The fall in crude oil price has been pressurizing entire oil and oilseeds market
across the globe.

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