28 September 2017

HEADLINES

Tampa price for October deliveries settled at $245 cfr, a $30 increase from the September price

Continued short supply allows Yuzhnyy to move up to $215 fob and possibly $220 shortly

Rossosh restarts after losing 5-6 days ammonia production; one line goes down at TOAZ

OPZ looks to restart ammonia production early October but largely to make urea for export

OUTLOOK
Firm

FERTECON PRICE SERVICE

AMMONIA KEY PRICES

28 September 21 September 14 September

Ammonia fob Yuzhnyy ($/t) 210-215 200-210 200-210

Ammonia fob Middle East ($/t) 230-275 230-260 230-260*
Ammonia cfr Tampa/US Gulf ($/t) 215-250 215-220 215-220
* nominal

AMMONIA KEY PRICES CHART

$/tonne
700

600

500

400

300
Caribbean
200 Middle East
Yuzhnyy
100
FERTECON 28 September 2017
0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Fertecons ammonia prices are available to analyse and download immediately after publishing via this link.

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 28 September 2017

AMMONIA PRICE INDICATIONS ALL PRICES IN US$

28 September 21 September 14 September

fob prices
Caribbean 180-215 180-185 180-185
Middle East 230-275 230-260 230-260*
- Netbacks on contract/formula-priced sales 230-245 230-245 230-245
- Spot fob 275 260 260
Yuzhnyy/FSU fob 210-215 200-210 200-210
Baltic/FSU 210-270 210-270 210
Southeast Asia 235-245 235-245 225-245
cfr prices
NW Europe (duty paid/duty free) * 264-332 264-332 264-269
NW Europe (duty unpaid) * 250-315 250-315 250-255
Far East 275-285 265-285 255-280
India 260-277 250-277 250-270*
US Gulf/Tampa 215-250 215-220 215-220
- Tampa 215-245 215 215
- US Gulf (MS, LA, TX) 220-250 220 220
FERTECON PRICE DEFINITION
^ corrected * nominal n.m.: no market
Prices, rounded to the nearest US$, represent the last known spot and contract business and current indications, for 4-40,000 t
cargoes, net of credit.
The full history of Fertecons ammonia prices is available to view and download by clicking here.

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO SUBSCRIBERS

Taking into account new market dynamics, such as shifts in global trade flows, increased shipments out of Trinidad to various
destination markets, reducing imports into the United States and increased spot activity out of both Trinidad and Venezuela,
Fertecon is considering the following changes to the fob Caribbean price index:

Current methodology Suggested changes for consultation

Fob Caribbean (overall range), incl.
Fob Caribbean - Netbacks on contract sales
- Spot business

The index will continue to include ammonia sales out of both

Predominantly functioning as a netback of contract cfr
Trinidad and Venezuela with the key proposed change to
Tampa settlements between Yara and Mosaic and spot
distinguish between prices of contract trade volumes and spot
cargoes out of Trinidad and Venezuela.
business.

If you have any feedback, suggestions, questions or concerns, please, contact Fertecon team on info@fertecon.com and feel free to
reach out directly to Marta Fern (office tel: +44 (0) 20 7551 9798) or Marina Simonova (office tel: +44 (0) 20 7551 9946)

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 28 September 2017

FREIGHT
AMMONIA FREIGHT INDICATIONS $/T

Route Cargo size (t) Latest rate

Caribbean Tampa/USG (1-2 ports) 23,500 30-40
Baltic Antwerp/Belgium 23,500 18-22
Baltic NW Europe (Germany, France) 8-15,000 30-40
Black Sea NW Europe (excl Scandinavia) 12-15,000 60-70
Black Sea Antwerp/Belgium 23,500 50-60
Black Sea Morocco 23,500 30-40
Black Sea India (1 port E. Coast) 40,000 60-70
Middle East India (1 port W. Coast) 23,500 20-22
Middle East India (2-3 ports W. Coast) 15,000 30-40
Middle East India (1 port E. Coast) 15,000 45-50
Middle East India (1 port E. Coast) 23,500 35-40
Middle East Far East (Taiwan) 23,500 55-65
Middle East Far East (South Korea) 23,500 65-75
Indonesia Taiwan 15-20,000 35-40
Indonesia Far East (2-3 ports) 23,500 30-40

EXCHANGE RATES
EXCHANGE RATES LOCAL CURRENCY: US$

28/09/2017 21/09/2017 28/09/2016

Euro 0.85056 0.83501 0.89012
Pound Sterling 0.74577 0.73919 0.77020
Turkish Lira 3.56448 3.48456 2.97592
Rupee India 65.7383 64.3703 66.4529
Real Brazil 3.17773 3.13032 3.23823
China RMB 6.63846 6.57321 6.66853

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 28 September 2017

ANALYSIS
Prices continue to firm with slightly higher levels paid in Turkey to secure tonnes for October amidst continued tight supply out of
Yuzhnyy with production issues of late encountered by Rossosh and TOAZ. OPZ may restart production early October but will focus
on urea.

The Middle East spot price moved up another $15 with Trammo securing October tonnes from PIC at around $275 fob for loading
next month.

Higher prices were also reported achieved in India with GSFC said to be buying 10,000 t from Trammo at $300 cfr. Several buyers
are looking for tonnes and further deals are expected in the coming days.

Tampa moved up another $30 to $245 cfr and CF secured a price of $224 fob for an export cargo out of the US.

SUPPLIERS

EUROPE

GERMANY
Monthly exports of ammonia in July were, at 8,376 t, around a half of the 16,974 t shipped in June. This brought the total exports
for January-July 2017 to 96,131 t, down by 88,446 t or 48% y-o-y compared with 184,577 t exported during the same period of
2016. (Source: GTT/German Statistical Office)

UNITED KINGDOM
According to customs data monthly exports of ammonia in July were, falling by 4,025 t or 13% from the exports of 30,503 t in June.
This took the total exports for January-July 2017 to 186,267 t posting an y-o-y increase of 68,404 t or 58%. The main destinations
for UK ammonia in July were Germany (15,965 t) and Finland (10,499 t). (Source: GTT/HMRC)

The known ammonia loadings out of the United Kingdom are tabulated below:

Vessel Trader 000 t Destination Load date

AUGUST 20
SEPTEMBER 8
Temse Yara 8 Germany (Rostock) 18-19 September (Hull)

EURASIA

BLACK SEA
Product is still extremely tight with outages at both Rossosh and Togliatti and OPZ only restarting to focus on urea. Ameropa has
made a sale into Turkey netting $215 fob Yuzhnyy and $220 is close to conclusion in the same market.

Rossosh restarted ammonia production 26 September after going down 20-21 September but just one line said to be running,
500,000 t/y. Product is still very tight with existing commitments to meet for export and for the Ukraine.

At Togliatti, one line went down yesterday and is expected to be out for a week. This leaves them with four ammonia lines running
and two urea and ammonia pumping for loading has been reduced to 150 t/d. The restart of the sixth line has been put back a
week; it was due to restart early October but is not now expected until 8-9 October.

OPZ hopes to restart one ammonia and one urea line early October after signing a new tolling agreement for gas. The focus at this
point will be on urea as ammonia remains unprofitable.

In terms of loading, Ameropa hopes to complete the Gas Cobia, Grouper and Snapper between 11-20 October for GCT Tunisia,
Bagfas and Toros, Turkey. The Clipper Venus will load for Morocco 20-30 October and the Gas Grouper should return late October
or early November, again for Morocco.

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The Navigator Jorf was delayed because of the issues at Rossosh but is expected to load last days September or early October. The
Sanko Independence is also scheduled to load 5-8 October for Trammo destination Morocco.

The known line-up of ammonia vessels to load in Yuzhnyy is provided below:

Vessel Trader/Buyer 000 t Destination Load date

AUGUST 141.8
SEPTEMBER 173.6
Gas Snapper Ameropa/TOAZ 23.4 Turkey (Gemlik) 4 September
Gas Grouper Ameropa/TOAZ 23.4 Belgium (Antwerp) 10-11 September
Marycam Swan Trammo/ex-TOAZ 15 Turkey (Samsun & Igsas) 12-13 September
Jordan (Aqaba - 15) & Tunisia
Gas Snapper Ameropa/TOAZ 23.4 15-16 September
(Gabes - 8.4)
Gas Cobia Ameropa/TOAZ 23.4 Turkey (incl Samsun) 19-21 September
Clipper Mars Ameropa/TOAZ 40 India 28-29 September
Arrived 20 September,
Navigator Jorf OCP 25 Morocco (Jorf Lasfar) waiting to load 30 Sept
/ 1-2 October
OCTOBER 203.9
Gas Manta Ameropa/TOAZ 23.4 Belgium (Antwerp) 5-6 October
Sanko Independence Trammo/Rossosh 23.5 Morocco (Jorf Lasfar) 5-8 October
Gas Cobia Ameropa/TOAZ 23.4 Turkey/Tunisia 11-20 October
Gas Grouper Ameropa/TOAZ 23.4 Turkey/Tunisia 11-20 October
Gas Snapper Ameropa/TOAZ 23.4 Turkey/Tunisia 11-20 October
Navigator Eclipse OCP 23.4 Morocco (Jorf Lasfar) 1-half October
Clipper Venus Ameropa/TOAZ 40 Morocco (Jorf Lasfar) 20-30 October
Gas Grouper Ameropa/TOAZ 23.4 Morocco (Jorf Lasfar) End Oct/early Nov

BALTIC
Whilst there is talk of even higher prices being sought in the Baltic of up to $300 fob, there is nothing spot available to top the $270
that traded last week. The October contract price has yet to be settled.

Known loadings out of the Baltic ports for September are as follows:

Trader/
Vessel 000 t Destination Load date
Buyer
AUGUST 101
SEPTEMBER 70
Coral Ivory Yara 4 Finland (Uusikaupunki) 1 September (Ventspils)
Temse Yara 8 Norway (Porsgrunn) 3-4 September (Ventspils)
Coral Ivory Yara 4 Sweden (Kping) 4-5 September (Ventspils)
Yara Sela Yara 14 Norway (Porsgrunn) 7-9 September (Sillame)
Coral Ivory Yara 4 Finland (Uusikaupunki) 9-10 September (Ventspils)

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Coral Ivory Yara 4 Sweden (Kping) 12-13 September (Ventspils)

Coral Ivory Yara 4 Finland (Uusikaupunki) 16-17 September (Ventspils)
Yara Sela Yara 14 Norway (Porsgrunn) 16-17 September (Sillame)
Coral Ivory Yara 4 Sweden (Kping) 19-20 September (Ventspils)
End September/early October
Wilhelm Schulte OCI 10 The Netherlands (Rotterdam)
(Ventspils)

AFRICA

EGYPT
There were reports that EBIC may return to the export market in October but this is not the case and remains out of the market.

ALGERIA
One ammonia line remains closed at Sorfert.

The Navigator Eclipse sailed from Arzew 25 September.

The latest known line-up for ammonia loading from the Fertial and Sorfert plants is as follows:

ALGERIA: 2017 AMMONIA EXPORT SHIPMENTS

Vessel Supplier 000 t Destination/Buyer-Trader Load Port Load Date

AUGUST 106.7

SEPTEMBER 104.4

Portugal (Lisbon) & Spain

Queen Isabella Fertial 7 Arzew 3-4 September
(Sagunto)/Fertiberia

Sylvie Sorfert 17 South Africa (Richards Bay)/Trammo Arzew 6-7 September

Yara Nauma Fertial 15 France (Ambes)/Yara Arzew 10-11 September

Queen Isabella Fertial 7 Spain (Aviles)/Fertiberia Arzew 14 September

Spain (Castellon & Sagunto)/

Andesgas Fertial 10 Arzew 15-16 September
Fertiberia

Navigator Eclipse TBC 23.4 TBC Arzew 20-24 September

Andesgas Fertial 10 TBC/Fertiberia Arzew 21 September

Yara Nauma Fertial 15 TBC/Yara Arzew 24 September

MIDDLE EAST

IRAN
According to customs data, monthly exports of Iranian ammonia reached 79,004 t in August, posting a m-o-m decline of 5,149 t or
6% from 84,153 t shipped in July and bringing the y-t-d total to 549,866 (up by 109,930 t or 25% y-o-y in comparison with 439,936 t
in January-August 2016). The main destination markets for the eight-month period were India (489,859 t) and Taiwan (59,016 t).
(Source GTT/Customs Administration - IRICA)

KUWAIT
Trammo has purchased 15,000 -23,000 t ammonia from PIC at around $275 fob for 2-half October loading.

SAUDI ARABIA
Maaden DAP production is increasing steadily and is expected to reach full production by Q1 2018.

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 28 September 2017

On ammonia, the producer is almost committed through to the end of the year under long-term contract and so the opportunity
for spot sales will be very limited.

Sabic is looking for a spot cargo to cover a contractual commitment whilst Safco 4 undergoes maintenance. The 1,089,000 t/y plant
went down earlier this week for the usual turnaround and some energy optimization programme that will last three months.

The known Middle East vessel line-up for September-October is below:

Vessel Supplier/Origin 000 t Destination/Buyer Price $/t Load date

AUGUST 354.3
SEPTEMBER 346
EC India (PPL/Paradeep 19.3
Navigator Nova Muntajat/Qatar 23 & TCL/Haldia - 4) & WC India l-t contract 1-2 September
(Hindalco/Dahej 3)
WC India (ZIL/Goa 2.6 &
Almarona Muntajat/Qatar 15 MCFL/Mangalore 4.5) & EC l-t contract 2-3 September
India (Greenstar/Tuticorin 7.9)
Raintrade/ex-Iran
Standorf 23 Taiwan (Taichung) l-t contract 2-4 September
(BIK)
PCC/ex-Iran WC India (Deepak Fertiliser/JNPT
Senna Princess 10 l-t contract 4 September
(Assaluyeh) Mumbai)
CIFC-Raintrade/ EC India (CIL/Kakinada 12.7
Gas Line 20.7 l-t contract 8-10 September
ex-Iran (BIK) & Vizag 8)
Sabic/Saudi Arabia
Al Barrah 23 WC India (incl GSFC/Sikka) l-t contract 10-11 September
(Al Jubail)
Sabic/Saudi Arabia
Al Jabirah 23 Taiwan (Taichung) l-t contract 10-11 September
(RAK)
Maaden/S. Arabia
BW Nice 40 Far East/Mitsubishi formula 11-15 September
(RAK)
WC India (Deepak Fertiliser/
PCC/ex-Iran
Senna Princess 13.5 JNPT Mumbai 10.5 l-t contract 15-18 September
(Assaluyeh)
& Sanjana/Dahej - 3)
Almarona Muntajat/Qatar 15 India incl Tuticorin l-t contract 17-18 September
Maaden/Saudi
Eupen 26 India l-t contract 16-19 September
Arabia (RAK)
Maaden/S. Arabia
(RAK) 13 & $260 Maaden
Trammo Cornell 25.4 WC India (Iffco/Kandla)/Trammo 20-21 September
Fertil/UAE (Ruwais) - ~$230 - Fertil
12
Raintrade/
Gas Cat 19 EC India: CIL/Kakinada l-t contract 20-22 September
ex-Iran (BIK)
Sabic/Saudi Arabia
Al Barrah 23 TBC l-t contract 22 September
(Al Jubail)
Navigator Nova Muntajat/Qatar 23 India l-t contract 25 September
Maaden/Saudi
Gas Quantum 23.4 Thailand (Rayong), China/Mitsui l-t contract End September
Arabia (RAK)

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OCTOBER 73
Maaden/S. Arabia TBC/Trammo 10k balance from
TBC 10 $260 Maaden October
(RAK) 10 23k spot

Maaden/S. Arabia
TBC 40 Far East n/a October
(RAK)
Maaden/S. Arabia
TBC 23 Far East n/a October
(RAK)
RAK = Ras Al Khair, S.A. = Saudi Arabia

SOUTHEAST ASIA

INDONESIA
Supply is still tight; Kaltim is hoping that the Kaltim 5 plant can restart by the middle of October despite reports in the market of a
possible delay until year end.

KPI has the Hong Jin due in to load in the next couple of days, expected to go to China.

The latest ammonia vessel line-up for September is provided below:

INDONESIA: 2017 AMMONIA EXPORT SHIPMENTS

Vessel 000 t Destination/Supplier or Trader Load Date/Port

AUGUST 32.3

SEPTEMBER 65.2

Bunga Kemboja 16 Thailand (Ube 10, PTTAC 4 & NFC 2)/Petronas 1 September (Bontang)

Trammo Paris 15 EC India (Paradeep)/Trammo 3-4 September (Bontang)

China (Zhanjiang - 6) & Japan (Mizushima - 9)

Gaz Millennium 5 12-13 September (Bontang)
after topping up 10 from Australia/Mitsui

Hong Jin 14.6 China (Caojing)/Trammo 12-13 September (Bontang)

Hong Jin 14.6 China 28 ? September (Bontang)

MALAYSIA
The Kerteh plant is running well.

The Bunga Kemboja loaded around 6,000 t in Bontang 21 September then completed loading in Kerteh and sailed 28 September for
Thailand.

MALAYSIA: 2017 AMMONIA EXPORT SHIPMENTS

Vessel 000 t Destination/Supplier or Trader Load Date/Port

AUGUST 6

SEPTEMBER 18.8

Bunga Kemboja 6 Indonesia (Gresik)/Petronas on b/h of Fertzcomm 12-13 September (Sipitang)

Gaschem Dollart 2.8 South Vietnam/Mitsui 20-21 September (Sipitang)

Thailand (Ube & NFC)/Petronas including 6k loaded

Bunga Kemboja 10 27-28 September (Kerteh)
previously from Bontang Indonesia

OCEANIA

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AUSTRALIA
Yaras vessel, the Viking River loaded 25-26 September and is headed for South Korea.

The last known loadings from the Yara Pilbara plant in Dampier are provided below:

AUSTRALIA: 2017 AMMONIA SHIPMENTS

Vessel 000 t Destination/Supplier or Trader Load Date/Port

AUGUST 75

SEPTEMBER 60

Viking River 25 Thailand (Map Ta Phut)/Yara 7-8 September/Dampier

China (Zhanjiang - 6) & Japan (Mizushima

Gaz Millennium 10 16-17 September/Dampier
9)/Mitsui including 5 loaded from Bontang

Viking River 25 South Korea/Yara 25-26 September/Dampier

OCTOBER 25

Nordic River 25 South Korea (Yosu)/Yara on b/h of Mitsubishi 1-half October/Dampier

NORTH AMERICA

UNITED STATES
It has now been confirmed that Mitsubishi bought around 40,000 t ammonia from CF for October loading out of Donaldsonville.
The cargo will be lifted on the Polar and the price was settled at $224 fob.

The latest known export shipments of US ammonia are tabulated below.

Vessel 000 t Destination/Trader or Buyer Load date/Port

AUGUST 46
SEPTEMBER 63
Trammo Dietlin 23 Chile (Mejillones)/Trammo 1 September (Donaldsonville)
Clipper Venus 40 Morocco (Jorf Lasfar)/OCP 13-16 September (Donaldsonville)
OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 40
Polar 40 TBC/Mitsubishi October (Donaldsonville)

LATIN AMERICA

TRINIDAD
The line-up for ammonia loadings from Point Lisas is tabulated below.

Vessel 000 t Destination Load date

AUGUST 413
SEPTEMBER 300.8
Yara Kara 15 France (Montoir) & Germany (Rostock) 1-3 September
Luigi Lagrange 25.4 United States (Point Comfort & Beaumont) 10-11 September
Celtic Gas 15 United States (Houston) 13-14 September
Clipper Orion 40 South Korea (incl Yosu) 14-16 September
Kaprijke 25 United States (incl Tampa) 16 September

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 28 September 2017

Marola 24.8 United States (incl Tampa) 16-17 September

Yara Freya 15 Brazil (Santos) 17-18 September
Libramont 25.4 Morocco (Jorf Lasfar) 18-19 September
Yara Aesa 25 Brazil 19-20 September
Solaro 24.8 Morocco (Jorf Lasfar)? 22-23 September
Hellas Eagle 40 USA (Point Comfort) 26-27 September
Sombeke 25.4 TBC 29 September

MARKETS

EUROPE

BELGIUM
The latest known ammonia deliveries into Antwerp are as follows:

BELGIUM: KNOWN 2017 AMMONIA IMPORTS

Vessel 000 t Supplier/Origin Discharge

AUGUST 23.4

SEPTEMBER 48.8

Sombeke 25.4 PSC/Trinidad (Point Lisas) 12 September

Gas Grouper 23.4 Ameropa-TOAZ/ex-Black Sea (Yuzhnyy) 25 September

OCTOBER 23.4

Gas Manta 23.4 Ameropa-TOAZ/ex-Black Sea (Yuzhnyy) 1-half October

GERMANY
According to customs data, monthly imports of ammonia into Germany were 57,261 t in July, marginally above the 56,400 t
delivered in June (861 t or 2% m-o-m uplift). This brought the total imports during January-July 2017 to 352,577 t, posting an
increase of 50,778 t or 17% y-o-y from the volume of 301,799 t delivered during the same period of 2016. (Source: GTT/German
Statistical Office)

NORWAY
The ammonia plant at Yaras Porsgrunn site is in the process of restarting.

AFRICA

MOROCCO
OCP has indicated its monthly requirement in Q4 will be around 100-110,000 t.

Production is running at a rate of 600-630,000 t/m DAP/MAP/NP/NPK in September but is due to rise to 710-730,000 t next month.

The latest known ammonia vessel arrivals into Jorf Lasfar are tabulated below.

MOROCCO: KNOWN 2017 AMMONIA IMPORTS

Vessel 000 t Supplier/Origin Discharge

AUGUST 109.5

SEPTEMBER 90.4

Clipper Orion 40 Koch/Trinidad (Point Lisas) 3-5 September

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Navigator Jorf 25 Ex-Black Sea (Yuzhnyy) 7-9 September

Libramont 25.4 PCS/Trinidad (Point Lisas) 29 September

OCTOBER 191.7

Clipper Venus 40 Ex-United States (Donaldsonville) 2 October

Navigator Jorf 25 Ex-Black Sea (Yuzhnyy) Early October

Solaro 24.8 Ex-Trinidad (Point Lisas) 1-half October

Marycam Swan 15 Trammo/ex-Turkey (Gemlik)? 1-half October

Sanko Independence 23.5 Trammo/ex-Black Sea (Yuzhnyy) 1-half October

Navigator Eclipse 23.4 Ex-Black Sea (Yuzhnyy) 1-half October

Clipper Venus 40 Ex-United States (Donaldsonville) End October/early November

NOVEMBER 63.4

Gas Grouper 23.4 Ameropa-TOAZ/ex-Black Sea (Yuzhnyy)

Clipper Venus 40 Ameropa

TUNISIA
The latest known ammonia deliveries into Gabes are below.

TUNISIA: KNOWN 2017 AMMONIA IMPORTS

Vessel 000 t Supplier/Origin Discharge

AUGUST 23.5

SEPTEMBER 23.4

Gas Cobia 23.4 Ameropa-TOAZ/ex-Black Sea (Yuzhnyy) 4 September

OCTOBER 31.8

Gas Snapper 8.4 Ameropa-TOAZ/ex-Black Sea (Yuzhnyy) Early October

Gas Cobia 23.4 Ameropa-TOAZ/ex-Black Sea (Yuzhnyy) End October

MIDDLE EAST

TURKEY
Toros and Bagfas are reported to have paid higher prices this week for Yuzhnyy ammonia; a price of $215 fob netback has already
been secured and $220 is said to be close to agreement. Both will take tonnes from Ameropa in October on the Gas Cobia, Grouper
or Snapper.

Last week Trammo sold a cargo to Bagfas at $220 cfr including 90 days.

Good demand is reported as producers ramp up production for the domestic market.

JORDAN
JPMCs DAP production remains curtailed at 50%, around 30,000 t/m.

SOUTHERN ASIA

INDIA
A price of $300 cfr was reported paid by GSFC which has yet to be confirmed. Inquiry is also reported for Hindalco, CIL and Iffco.

West Coast:

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Hindalco is in the market for 5,000-6,500 t ammonia for end October arrival.

Iffco discharged the Trammo Cornell with 25,400 t ammonia at Kandla 23 September under its long term contract with Trammo.
The price for this cargo has been settled at $260 cfr.

There were also reports that Iffco will be taking PCS tonnes from Trinidad in 1-half November but details have yet to be clarified.

Deepak Fertiliser closed an enquiry on 25 September for three lots of 10,000 t ammonia for arrival 12-15 October, 3-6 November
and 25-28 November.

East Coast:

Iffco will receive the Clipper Mars with 40,000 t in Paradeep mid-October under its long term contract with Ameropa. It is due to
start loading shortly in Yuzhnyy.

CIL will receive 18,500 t ammonia on the Gas Cat during 5-10 October under its long-term contract with CIFC.

CIL will also receive 7,500 t on the Navigator Nova during 5-10 October under its long-term contract with Muntajat.

Thereafter, the Gas Line is expected to arrive with around 12,000 t on 15-20 October under CILs long-term contract with CIFC.

Finally, CIL will receive around 15,000 t on Raintrades vessel, the Standorf around 18-22 October.

TCL received the Almarona into Haldia 24 September with 7,350 t from Muntajat ex-Qatar. She then delivered another 4,000 t to
ZIL into Goa on 27 September and 4,000 t to MCFL into Mangalore 28 September.

The list of known September-October deliveries into Indian ports so far is below:

$/t cfr unless

Buyer/Location Supplier/Origin 000 t Discharge Vessel
stated
AUGUST 195.6
SEPTEMBER 232
West Coast 72
Trammo/ex-S. Arabia (RAK)
Iffco/Kandla 25.4 l-t contract 23 September Trammo Cornell
& UAE
GSFC/Sikka Sabic/S. Arabia (Al Jubail) 13 $277 14 September Al Barrah
Hindalco/Dahej Muntajat/Qatar 3 l-t contract 16 September Navigator Nova
Sanjana/Dahej PCC/Iran (Assaluyeh) 3 n/a 20 September Senna Princess
Deepak Fertiliser/
PCC/Iran (Assaluyeh) 10.5 l-t contract 21 September Senna Princess
JNPT Mumbai
Deepak Fertiliser/
PCC/Iran (Assaluyeh) 10 l-t contract 10-11 September Senna Princess
JNPT Mumbai
ZIL/Goa Muntajat/Qatar 2.6 l-t contract 7-9 September Almarona
MCFL/Mangalore Muntajat/Qatar 4.5 l-t contract 9-10 September Almarona
East Coast 160
Greenstar/
Muntajat/Qatar 7.9 l-t contract 10-11 September Almarona
Tuticorin
CIL/Kakinada Maaden/S. Arabia (RAK) 16.1 l-t contract 1-2 September Eupen
CIL/Kakinada CIFC-Raintrade/Iran 10.5 l-t contract 5 September Gas Cat

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 28 September 2017

CIL/Kakinada CIFC-Raintrade/Iran 12.7 l-t contract 21 September Gas Line

CIL/Vizag Maaden/S. Arabia (RAK) 7 l-t contract 3-4 September Eupen
CIL/Vizag CIFC-Raintrade/Iran 6.5 l-t contract 7 September Gas Cat
CIL/Vizag CIFC-Raintrade/Iran 8 l-t contract 22 September Gas Line
PPL/Paradeep Muntajat/Qatar 19.3 $240 11 September Navigator Nova
Iffco/Paradeep Ameropa /Black Sea 40 $225 6 September Clipper Mars
Iffco/Paradeep Trammo/Indonesia 12.6 $260 14 September Trammo Paris
TCL/Haldia Muntajat/Qatar 4 l-t contract 14 September Navigator Nova
TCL/Haldia 7.35 24 September
ZIL/Goa Muntajat/Qatar 4 27 September Almarona
MCFL/Mangalore 4 28 September
OCTOBER 105
East Coast 105
CIL/TBC CIFC-Raintrade/Iran 18.5 l-t contract 5-10 October Gas Cat
CIL/TBC Muntajat/Qatar 7.5 l-t contract 5-10 October Navigator Nova
CIL/TBC CIFC-Raintrade/Iran 12 l-t contract 15-20 October Gas Line
CIL/TBC CIFC-Raintrade/Iran 15 l-t contract 18-22 October Standorf
PPL/Paradeep CIFC-Raintrade/Iran 12 l-t contract Mid-October Gas Line
Iffco/Paradeep Ameropa/Yuzhnyy 40 l-t contract Mid-October Clipper Mars

EASTERN ASIA

CHINA
After discharging in China, the Leo Sunrise will head to the Middle East to load. Mitsui is also taking the Gas Quantum to Zhanjiang
after discharging in Thailand and the Gas Millenium will discharge 6,000 t at the port after discharging in Japan.

August trade figures show the import of a little over 77,000 t, including 25,300 t from Egypt, 20,900 t Indonesia and 18,000 t Oman.

A breakdown of arrivals shows nearly 41,200 t going into Nanjing, 29,700 t to Shanghai and 6,300 t Zhanjiang.

Over the first 8 months of the year ammonia imports into China total 373,000 t compared with a little under 300,000t in the same
period of 2016. (Source GTT)

SOUTH KOREA
Reports suggest that LFC may need a spot cargo early November because of strong demand for acrylonitrile.

The latest known arrivals of ammonia into South Korean ports are tabulated below.

Buyer/Location Supplier/origin 000 t Discharge Vessel

AUGUST 81

SEPTEMBER 126+

Mitsubishi/ex-S. Arabia
NCC/Yosu 25 30 August 3 September Polar
(RAK - Maaden)

NCC/Yosu Koch/Trinidad 11 11-12 September Clipper Neptun

NCC/Yosu Koch/ex-S. Arabia 20 19-22 September Clipper Sky

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 28 September 2017

(RAK Maaden)

LFC/Ulsan Trammo/ex-Egypt 17 1-2 September Kallo

Mitsubishi/ex-S. Arabia
LFC/Ulsan ? 4 September Polar
(RAK - Maaden)

Koch/ex-S. Arabia
LFC/Ulsan 13 22 September Clipper Sky
(RAK Maaden)

Trammo/ex-Bahrain &
LFC/Ulsan ? 21 September Gas Utopia
Oman

LFC/Ulsan ex-S. Arabia 33 2-half September BW Nantes

Hanwha/Incheon LFC/ex-S. Arabia 7 17 September BW Nantes

OCTOBER 25+

NCC/Yosu Yara on b/h of Mitsubishi 25 Early October Nordic River

Koch/Trinidad
NCC/Yosu ? 15 October Clipper Orion
(Point Lisas)

TAIWAN
CPDC was expected to have a reduced requirement because of maintenance work to Hsiao-Kang but this is not the case because of
high production rates at CPL and ACN plants.

THAILAND
August imports totalled 28,600 t with 16,600 t sourced from Indonesia and 12,000 t Malaysia. (Source GTT)

OCEANIA

AUSTRALIA
The Nordic River in on its way from Zhanjiang, China to Kwinana, eta 1 October.

NORTH AMERICA

UNITED STATES
Yara and Mosaic have settled the contract price for October deliveries into Tampa at $245 cfr, a $30 increase from the September
price of $215 cfr.

Domestic ammonia prices were stable to firm this week while the market awaits the fall application season. At this point, tanks are
full and buyers and sellers are waiting to see how much demand weather conditions this Fall will support before making further
decisions. Sellers expect to achieve higher prices on any further sales opportunities that may emerge after current inventories are
spent. Relatively higher urea prices and the increased Tampa settlement bode well for prospects of higher prices, however, the
weather and demand will be the predominant driver of prices this Fall.

Wheat preplant movement is beginning to wrap up in Kansas and Missouri. Ammonia prices in Oklahoma were reported at $275-
285/ston fob for prompt. Pryor has kept their offer withdrawn and is thought to be assessing where ammonia prices should be
relative to current urea values. Dodge City was last heard at $320/ston for Q4 with Woodward and Enid said to be at $285-295/ston

The latest known US ammonia import arrivals are:

Origin 000 t Discharge port Vessel Arrival date

AUGUST 230.8

SEPTEMBER 177.2

Trinidad 15 Tampa, Fl Yara Aesa 1 September

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 28 September 2017

5.5 Freeport, Tx

Trinidad 15.4 Tampa, Fl Libramont 5 September

Trinidad 5 Houston, Tx Marola 7 September

5 New Orleans 5 September

Venezuela Gaschem Stade
9 Port Lavaca, Tx 7 September

15.4 Tampa, Fl 5 September

Trinidad Libramont
10 Houston, Tx 9 September

4.4 Beaumont, Tx
Trinidad 11.5 Freeport, Tx Luigi Lagrange 17-19 September
16.6 Port Lavaca, Tx

Trinidad 14 Tampa, Fl Kaprijke 21 September

Trinidad 11 Port Lavaca, Tx Kaprijke 24 September

Trinidad 14 Tampa, Fl Marola 22 September

Trinidad 11 Houston, Tx Marola 26 September

Trinidad 11 Freeport, Tx Celtic Gas 22 September

Trinidad 3.4 Houston, Tx Celtic Gas 21 September

LATIN AMERICA

BRAZIL
The Yara Aesa is expected to arrive at Santos 5 October to discharge 15,000 t for Vale and then the Yara Freya will return eta 20
October with another 15,000 t from Trinidad. The Yara Freya arrived at Santos today, 28 September to discharge.

FEEDSTOCK
QUICK GLANCE (CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK)

TTF: 17.70 (up) Brent: $57.90 (up) Henry Hub (day-ahead): $2.97 (down)

WESTERN EUROPE

NETHERLANDS
The Dutch TTF day-ahead price closed at 17.70/MWh on 27 September up from 17.38/MWh on 20 September, according to the
EEX.

This increase in the TTF day-ahead price has mainly come on the back of a decline in stocks at the Norg natural gas storage site.

A price of 17.70/MWh equates to $6.13/mmBtu at the exchange rate of /$ 1:1.18155 on 27 September. In September so far, the
TTF day-ahead average is estimated at $6.03/mmBtu, against the $5.51/mmBtu in August, and compared with $5.07/mmBtu in July
and $4.96/mmBtu in June.

The average six-month ICE futures price for TTF for Oct 2017-Mar 2018 is 18.03/MWh on 27 September, and equating to
$6.24/mmBtu using the /$ exchange rate of 1:1.18155 on 27 September.

UNITED KINGDOM
The NBP day-ahead price closed at 45.70 p/therm on 27 September up from 45.40 p/therm on 20 September. A price of 45.70
p/therm equates to $6.15/mmBtu at the /$ exchange rate of 1:1.34574 from 27 September.

The October 2017 contract on ICE natural gas futures for the NBP closed at 46.32 p/therm on 27 September up from 44.50
p/therm on 20 September. The average 6-month forward strip (Oct 2017-Mar 2018) is 50.04 p/therm, which equates to
$6.73/mmBtu at the /$ exchange rate of 1:1.34574 from 27 September.

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 28 September 2017

OTHER WESTERN EUROPE

The Brent crude oil contract for November 2017 settled at $57.90/bbl on 27 September up from $56.29/bbl on 20 September. The
average price for the 3-month strip (Nov 2017-Jan 2018) is $57.61/bbl compared with $55.97/bbl a week before, while the 12-
month average (Nov 2017-Nov 2018) is $56.89/bbl against $55.44/bbl.

Crude oil prices have been higher in the past couple of weeks on a reported decline in inventories and healthy demand, which are
expected to provide a short-term squeeze.

In its September Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA is forecasting Brent crude oil prices to average $51.07/bbl in 2017
(down slightly from $50.71/bbl in the August report) and $51.58/bbl in 2018 (flat from the prior report). Meanwhile, the annual
average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices in 2017 and 2018 are expected to average roughly $2/bbl less than Brent prices. The
EIA is currently projecting quarterly average Brent spot prices to average roughly $50/bbl until the end of 1-half 2018, before rising
to close to $54/bbl by the end of 2018.

SOUTHERN ASIA

INDIA
The Indian government looks set to increase natural gas prices for the six months starting 1 October 2017 to around $2.80/mmBtu
from the current $2.48/mmBtu, representing a rise of roughly 13%, a survey among analysts and industry participants published by
Bloomberg showed. The estimates ranged between $2.60/mmBtu and $3.15/mmBtu. The government is due to announce the
actual new price this week.

This would be the first rise in domestic natural gas prices since November 2014 when the formula gas pricing was first introduced.
Since then, prices have been successively reduced in five cuts from just over $5.00/mmBtu in November 2014. The gas-pricing-
formula in India is based on US, Canadian, Russian and UK rates.

From 1 October, companies producing gas from some deep-water fields with high pressure and high temperature areas are allowed
a higher tariff of about $5.56/mmBtu, the report further said.

EASTERN ASIA

CHINA
Thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao for the 5,500 kcal grade are flat this week in Rmb-terms at Rmb580-590/t ($88.20-88.25/t)
compared with Rmb580-590/t ($88.80-88.85/t) last week. The average price in September so far is estimated at Rmb583/t
($88.62/t) compared with the August average of also Rmb583/t ($87.51/t) and the year-ago average in September 2016 of
Rmb543/t ($81.82/t).

The y-t-d average price in $-terms stands at $86.50/t against $63.22/t in January-September 2016 and against $72.09/t in the same
period in 2015.

OCEANIA

AUSTRALIA
The Newcastle market for Q4 2017 is $96.45/t down from $96.60/t last week; Q1 2018 is $94.15/t up from $93.60/t; 2018 is
$87.45/t down from $87.85/t; 2019 is $79.75/t down from $80.20/t; and 2020 is $76.35/t.

NORTH AMERICA

UNITED STATES
The Henry Hub day-ahead price is estimated at $2.97/mmBtu on 27 September down from a revised price of 3.13/mmBtu on 20
September.

In September so far, it averaged $2.98/mmBtu against August at $2.90/mmBtu, and July and June both at $2.98/mmBtu.

In its September Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $3.05/mmBtu in
2017 (down a fraction from $3.06/mmBtu in the August report) and $3.29/mmBtu in 2018 (level with the prior report), having
averaged $2.51/mmBtu in 2016, according to Fertecon estimates. The new EIA projection for 2017 is still roughly in line with the
current Fertecon projection. The EIA is currently projecting prices to be a bit lower in Q3 2017 at an average of $2.95/mmBtu
compared with Q2 2017. The average for Q4 2017 is estimated at $3.17/mmBtu.

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 28 September 2017

On NYMEX natural gas futures, the October 2017 contract settled at $2.974/mmBtu on 27 September down from $3.094/mmBtu
on 20 September. The average for the next three months Oct-Dec 2017 is $3.084/mmBtu compared with $3.178/mmBtu a week
earlier, while the average for the next 12 calendar months (Oct 2017-Oct 2018) is $3.069/mmBtu against $3.119/mmBtu.

The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending 15 September 2017 showed a net injection of working gas stocks
into underground storage of 97 bcf. The net injection compares with the year-ago injection of 54 bcf and the five-year-average
injection of 73 bcf. It further compares with the median expectation of market analysts of a net injection of 90 bcf. Natural gas
stocks on 15 September were 3,408 bcf, which is 143 bcf (4.0%) below a year ago and 67 bcf (2.0%) above the five-year average.

Regarding the WTI, the CME November 2017 contract closed at $52.14/bbl on 27 September up from $50.69/bbl on 20 September.
The forward 3-month strip (Nov 2017-Jan 2018) is $52.40/bbl, while the 12-month forward average (Nov 2017-Nov 2018) is
$52.47/bbl.

AGRICULTURE
WEEKLY CBOT CROP PRICES (/BU)

1,400 Rough Rice Wheat Corn Soybean

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200
Apr 15

Nov 15

Apr 16

Nov 16

Apr 17
Jun 15

Aug 15

Oct 15

Jun 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Jun 17

Aug 17
Jan 15

Mar 15

Jan 16

Mar 16

Jan 17

Mar 17
Dec 14

May 15

May 17
Feb 15

Jul 15

Sep 15

Dec 15

May 16
Feb 16

Jul 16

Sep 16

Dec 16

Feb 17

Jul 17

Sep 17
CROP FUTURES

CME CROP FUTURES (/BU)

Q4 Weekly Q1 Q2 September Annual Change

Product
2017 Change 2018 2018 2016 Q4 17/Q4 16 Q4 17/14
Corn 354.0 +4.0 366.6 375.6 329.2 +6% -19%
Wheat 459.0 +11.0 477.0 490.2 421.2 +6% -48%
Soybean 965.4 -4.6 976.2 985.4 945.40 +3% -28%
Rough Rice 1190.0 -90.5 1,217.0 1,234.5 974.00 +24% -9%
Prices are Wednesdays closing rates for the forward contracts indicated. The 2016 price is the forward price reported 1 year ago.
The annual change reflects the % change in the Q4 2017 contract price against the Q4 2016 and the 2014 mean.

QUICK GLANCE

CORN: WHEAT:
The market continues to evaluate the yield reports from early The trade looks for USDAs US all wheat production estimate
harvested fields. If they can continue to come in better than to come in at 1,719 million bushels, which would be a trim of
expected, then the market could move lower. USDA is about 20 million bushels from USDAs August forecast at 1,739
scheduled to release its Grain Stocks report on Friday. million. IEGs outlook is smaller at 1,668 million bushels.

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 28 September 2017

SOYBEAN:
Pressure is coming from improving rainfall in Brazil, better-
than-expected yield reports. Prices also were pressured by the
decline in soybean oil, following the EPA statement that it was
considering lowering the fuel volume requirements.
RICE:
Although futures have posted significant losses recently, the
outlook is for y-o-y increases, as supplies are forecast to
tighten. Harvest progress could be pressuring futures,
especially if yields are coming in better than expected.

EURASIA

RUSSIA
Reports suggest that Russia will likely maintain their winter grain sowing area this planting season. Russian farmers reportedly have
sown winter grains on about 11.2 million hectares or about 64% of the planned 17.5 million hectares. Planting pace is running
ahead of last years pace.

SOUTHERN ASIA

INDIA
Indias agriculture ministry forecast a 2.8% drop in the countrys kharif crop production this year, as a patchy monsoon caused
flooding in some areas and prolonged dryness in others.

In its first estimate for the 2017/18 kharif season, the ministry pegged food grain production at 134.7 million t, down from last
seasons record 138.5 million. Production of oilseeds was forecast to drop by 7.7% to 20.68 million t, with soybean output seen
falling by 11.5%. Cotton production was also expected to fall by 2% to 32.2 million bales despite a 19% increase in sown area, while
pulse production was seen 7.5% lower than in 2016/17 at 8.7 million t. The only kharif crop to buck the trend was sugarcane, where
production was expected to rise by 10% to 338 million t.

Data from the India Meteorological department showed that as of September 24, some 212 out of 630 districts had seen monsoon
rains at least 20% below normal, whereas 100 districts experienced excess rains of at least 20% above normal. The state of Gujarat
was among those areas affected by floods, while parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh suffered from prolonged dry spells.

NORTH AMERICA

UNITED STATES
US corn continues to lag the average and year-ago levels of the amount of the crop that is mature and harvested, according to
USDA's Crop Progress report. Just over half 51% was rated mature as of September 23, behind the average pace of 64% and the
year-ago level of 70%. Similarly, corn harvest is at 11% complete against a 17-percent five-year average and 14% at this point in
2016. Most major US corn production states are anywhere from 4% or more behind the average pace at this point in the year. The
level of corn rated good/excellent held steady at 61% with 1% more shifted from good to excellent.

Ahead of the report, traders expected corn harvest at 14% with soybean harvest at 11%, according to a poll released by Reuters.
Condition ratings for corn were expected at 60% good/excellent, down 1% point from the prior week, with soybeans were expected
steady at 59% good/excellent. Traders also looked for winter wheat to be 26% planted.

Soybean harvest moved to 10% complete, just behind the average pace of 12% but ahead of year-ago when nine% was harvested.
Soybean condition ratings also improved slightly, with 60% good/excellent, up 1% point from the prior week.

Winter wheat seeding is now 24% complete, behind the average pace of 28% and less than expected. Several key states like Kansas,
Colorado and Oklahoma are all still behind their average pace at this point of the season.

LATIN AMERICA

ARGENTINA
Argentina is set to lose more than US$180 million in potential export revenues and around 10% of the expected exportable balance
of its 2017/18 wheat crop due to excess rain and flooding, according to new estimates published in the country. The 2017/18
wheat production forecast has been cut by some 1 million t after 150,000 hectares were not sown because of the extensive
flooding and a further 100,000 ha of the crop were lost following intense rainfalls that hit the region of Buenos Aires recently.

These 250,000 ha that will not be harvested in Buenos Aires are compounded by a further 35,000 ha lost in the region of La Pampa,
where rains flooded certain fields with twice the usual volume of water that is characteristic for this time of the year, according to a

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 28 September 2017

new analysis published by Argentinas Rosario Board of Trade (BCR). The wet conditions have also raised concerns about the
prospects for Argentina's 2017/18 corn and soy crops.

The calculated value of lost potential wheat exports amounts to USD180.32 million, based on a FOB price of USD180 per t of wheat
from the new crop. To put this loss in context, the 1 million t of unrealized production would be 10% of the estimated total wheat
exports for the new 2017/18 season, which are expected to reach around 10 million t.

Argentinas wheat production is now expected to range between 16-16.5 million t, down at least 0.5 million t from the previous
season. This projection is based on an assumed sown acreage of 5.45 million ha and average yields of 3.12 t per ha.

BRAZIL
Brazilian growers are set to harvest 108.50 million t of soybeans in 2018, according to the first forecast for the next season issued
by the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (ABIOVE) this month. This is exactly 5 million t below the organizations 113.50
million t estimate for Brazils soy harvest in 2017.

Larger soy processing will be one of the highlights of 2018: from 41.50 million t predicted for 2017 to 43 million t [in 2018]. This will
be reflected in a larger production of protein meal, amounting to 32.70 million t [in 2018] compared to this years estimate of 31.50
million t, and an increased soy oil production from 8.20 million t [in 2017] to 8.50 million t, explained the organization.

ABIOVE attributed the higher forecast for soy processing primarily to the introduction of B10 in the market in March 2018. This
means that the current biodiesel to fossil diesel mixture will change from 8% (B8) to 10%. In addition to the larger domestic
processing, ABIOVE also expects soybean exports to rise by 1 million t to 65 million t in 2018. Domestic consumption of soy oil will
also increase to 7.70 million t, up from 7.0 million t in 2017.

In terms of revenue, Brazil stands to earn USD29.38 billion in 2018 from foreign sales of soybeans and soy products, which is just a
notch below ABIOVEs forecast of USD29.82 billion for this year. This growth is also linked to the very positive performance of the
industry in 2017, with soy production expected to increase by 18.3% and soy exports by 24.1% rise, as well as a 5% expansion in
processing.

FERTECON FERTILIZER AND CROP INDICES

Crop Index Fertilizer Index

135
Jan 2010 = 100

110

85

Source: Fertecon & CBOT

60
Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16
Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17
Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16
May-14

May-15

May-16

May-17
Jan-15

Mar-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

Using 6 January 2010 as the starting point (Jan 2010=100), the FERTECON indices aim to assess relative fertilizer affordability and
illustrate the comparative movement of fertilizer prices (a basket of urea, DAP and MOP) against crop prices. The denotation is that
the higher the crop index is relative to the fertilizer index, the more affordable fertilizers are to farmers and vice versa.

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 28 September 2017

AMMONIA REPORT is prepared by Marta Fern Phone: +44 20 7551 9798 Email: info@fertecon.com

FERTECON AMMONIA REPORT is published weekly by:

FERTECON, Agribusiness Intelligence, Informa UK Ltd., Christchurch Court, 10-15 Newgate Street, London, EC1A 7AZ, UK.
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