+ BPD 33802

Risk Management

Dr. Norliana Sarpin

norliana@uthm.edu.my

TOPIC 1
INTRODUCTION TO RISK
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A ship is safe in harbor, but

thats not what ships are for

William G.T. Shedd

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CONTENTS

1. Risk
2. Certainty
3. Probability
4. Risk & Uncertainty
5. Risk management
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RISK
Concept of risk

Risk and uncertainty can be used in different ways

Risk= French word risque 17th century

18th century = the word Risk (in English) was
used in insurance transaction.
Risk= Can defined in many ways and assessed in
terms of facilities and injuries, in term of
probability of reliability, in term of a sample of
population , or in term of the likely effect on a
project.
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RISK

Definition
Risk :- existed when a decision is expressed in
terms of a range of possible outcomes and when
known probabilities can be attained to the
outcomes.

Uncertainty :- exist when there is more than one

possible outcomes of a course of action but the
probability of each outcomes is not known
( frequent term: estimating uncertainty)
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RISK

Flanagan & Norman(1993), risiko berkaitan dengan

kebarangkalian boleh dianggarkan secara kuantitatif.

Ketidakpastian (uncertainty) ditakrifkan sebagai situasi yang tidak

ada data terdahulu yang boleh menyokong dalam membuat
keputusan.
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RISK
Risiko = sesuatu yang tidak pasti dan melibatkan
kos ( sektor pembinaan yang paling tinggi )
Vaughan(1991), risiko adalah keadaan dimana
kemungkinan berlaku peralihan dari hasil yang
dijangka dan diharapkan.
Raftery (1994), risiko dan ketidakpastian sebagai
situasi yang mana hasil sebenar daripada
sesuatu aktiviti berubah daripada nilai yang
dijangkakan.
Chapman ( 1991), risiko adalah pendedahan
kepada kemungkinan ekonomi dan
keuntungan/kerugian kewangan, kerosakan
fizikal atau kelewatan yang diakibatkan oleh
ketidakpastian atas tindakan yang dilakukan.
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Drucker(1995) 3 jenis risiko

1. Risiko berasaskan perniagaan
cth: keusangan teknologi utk perniagaan
berasaskan penggunaan teknologi yang tinggi
2. Risiko yang mampu dihadapi oleh syarikat
Cth: syarikat terlibat dengan pasaran global,
mereka bersedia untuk menghadapi risiko
kegagalan
3. Risiko yang tidak mampu dihadapi oleh syarikat.
Syarikat perlu berubah mengikut perkembangan
terkini untuk mengelak dari risiko
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RISK

Bufaied(1987), risiko dalam pembinaan merupakan

pembolehubah dalam proses pembinaan itu sendiri yang
mana variasi yang berlaku akan mengakibatkan
ketidakpastian dalam hasil pembinaan dari segi kos, kualiti
dan tempoh masa penyiapan projek.

Porter(1981), Heale(1992) & Perry (1985), risiko adalah

pendedahan kepada situasi ekonomi yang menjurus kepada
kerugian atau keuntungan akibat penglibatan dalam proses
pembinaan.

Mason(1973) dan Moavenzed & Rossow (1976), risiko adalah

pendedahan kepada ekonomi yang menjuruskan kepada
kerugian sahaja.
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RISK

Economic Risk Business Risk

Social Risk Types of

Risk
Construction Risk

Political Risk
AND MANY MORE.
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RISK
Kebarangkalian
(probability)
DECISION MAKING
PROCESS

Risiko dan
ketidakpastian
Kepastian (Risk and
(certainty) uncertainty)
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RISK

KEPASTIAN
(Certainty)

Wujud bila seseorang boleh atau dapat

menentukan secara tepat apa yang berlaku
semasa membuat keputusan
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KEBARANGKALIAN
(probability)

Nisbah antara peluang dengan bilangan

kejadian yang berkemungkinan terjadi.
Melibatkan nombor antara kosong dengan
satu, yg mewakili keputusan relative terhadap
kemungkinan sesuatu terjadi
0 = tidak berlaku 1 = pasti berlaku
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Kebarangkalian

Kebarangkalian Kebarangkalian Kebarangkalian

Keutamaan
Objektif Subjektif
The probability that
Exist from visible derived from an
an event will occur symmetry individual's personal
based an analysis in assume that all judgment about
which each measure is whether a specific
possible outcomes of a
based on a recorded outcome is likely to
observation, rather particular occur
than a subjective event/experiment are
estimate. equally likely to happen
(Daripada pandangan
(Berdasarkan analisa / Eg: coin flip or dice yang konsisten tentang
pemerhatian terhadap peristiwa atau
ulangan relatif kejadian keyakinan tersendiri
lalu bagi peristiwa yang tentang peristiwa)
sama) cth: peristiwa yg
berulang-ulang
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RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

Risk and uncertainty are closely related concepts in

economics and the stock market.

The definitions of risk and uncertainty were established by

Frank H. Knight in his 1921 book, "Risk, Uncertainty, and
Profit,.

He defines risk as a measurable probability involving future

events, and he argues that risk will not generate profit.

Risk is calculated using theoretical models, or by calculating

the observed frequency of events to deduce probabilities.
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RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
Meanwhile, uncertainty is not quantifiable because future
events are too unpredictable, and information is insufficient.

The uncertainty of the event is not something that can be

calculated using past models.

Though randomness of events underlies both principles, it is

important to distinguish the differences as they relate to
investments.

For example, an investor has the opportunity to calculate the

risks by deducing past probabilities to protect his or her
investment portfolio.

Uncertainty is not quantifiable and therefore does not offer

the same opportunity to protect an investment. Both
principles work in tandem (seiring) and do apply when in
investing situations, or even prospects of investing on the
stock market.
+ RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
RISK
A measurable probability involving
future events. As being where the
outcomes of a event, or each set of
possible outcomes.
UNCERTAINTY
A decision environment in which the
decision maker does not know what
outcome will occur when an
alternatives is selected.

Can be predicted on the basis of Regarded as the change occurrence

statistical probability. of same event where the probability
distribution is genuinely not know

Risk is implies that there is some No knowledge of an event

knowledge about a risk as a discrete
event or a combination of
circumstances.
Eg; Project risk can be identified
from experience gained by working
on similar project
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CATEGORIES OF RISK

Known risk
Known unknowns
Unknown unknowns
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RISK
KNOWN RISKS KNOWN UNKNOWNS UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS

Minor variations Risk events whose Those events whose

eg: variation in
productivity and
swings in material
cost.
Controllable risk
occurrence is predictable probability of
or foreseeable occurrence and effect
Either their probability of not foreseeable by
their likely effect is known even the most
experienced staff
These are usually
considered as force-
majeure.

Force majeure" describes those uncontrollable events (such as war, labor stoppages, or extreme weather)
that are not the fault of any party and that make it difficult or impossible to carry out normal business.
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Kategori risiko berdasarkan perbezaan sebab-sebab
risiko itu terjadi ( Ralph& Irwin 1997)
Risiko yang boleh Risiko yang boleh diterima adalah risiko yang
diterima dan tidak masih ditanggung jika ia berlaku dan tidak
boleh diterima menyebabkan projek perlu dihentikan
Risiko yang tidak boleh diterima adalah
sesuatu yang berlaku menyentuh laluan
genting serta memberi amaran yang projek
patut dihentikan
Risiko jangka Risiko jangka pendek adalah risiko yang
pendek dan jangka memberi kesan serta merta kepada projek.
panjang Risiko jangka panjang adalah risiko yang
berlaku dan memberi kesan yang berterusan
pada masa hadapan.
Kedua-dua risiko ini memberi kesan kepada
proses membuat keputusan.
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Kategori risiko berdasarkan perbezaan sebab-sebab
risiko itu terjadi ( Ralph& Irwin 1997)
Risiko negatif dan Risiko terjadi kadangkala boleh membantu
positif projek selain sifatnya yang mengancam
projek.(Cth; penjadualan semula aktiviti tidak
kritikal kadangkala membantu dalam
penyiapan aktiviti kritikal projek)

Risiko yang mampu Risiko yang berlaku disebabkan tekanan

diurus dan yang yang berlebihan dari luar merupakan risiko
tidak mampu diurus yang tidak mampu ditanggung oleh organisasi
projek.
Risiko dalaman dan Risiko dalaman sesuatu yang unik bagi
luaran projek dan ia berlaku dalam sempadan projek.
Risiko luaran adalah disebabkan oleh faktor
luaran dan tidak boleh dikawal oleh
organisasi.
+ MANUSIA DAN RISIKO

Mengambil Risiko Bersedia menghadapi risiko dalam setiap tindakan

yang diambil.
Kemungkinan menghadapi situasi yang buruk atau
kerugian sedia dipantau dengan mekanisme yang
ada dalam diri atau organisasi

Neutral terhadap risiko Tidak bersedia menghadapi atau tidak juga

mengelak risiko.
Risiko yang ada tidak diambil perhatian yang
mendalam dan tidak juga dielakkan.
Sikap neutral ini berlandaskan keadaan yang jika
adanya risiko, barulah tindakan akan dibuat.
Mengelak risiko Berlawanan dengan sikap mengambil risiko,
tindakan mengelak risiko dibuat sebelum risiko
sebenar dihadapi. Pemantauan terhadap
kemungkinan berlakunya risiko dibuat sejak dari
awal lagi.
+ PERATURAN UNTUK MENGAMBIL RISIKO

Jangan mengambil risiko yang tinggi untuk mendapatkan

faedah yang sedikit
Selalu merancang ke hadapan

Selalu menganalisis sumber dan kesan akibat risiko

Dapatkan pilihan alternatif sebagai kotegensi

Jangan salahkan orang lain terhadap tindakan yang

diambil untuk sesuatu aktiviti
Jangan mengambil risiko atas sebab-sebab prinsip

Jangan mengambil risiko kerana mengelakkan malu atau

menjaga imej semata-mata
Jangan sesekali untuk mengambil risiko yang tidak mampu
dihadapi
+ PERATURAN UNTUK MENGAMBIL RISIKO

Bersedia untuk mendapatkan nasihat daripada mereka

yang pakar dalam pengurusan risiko
Gunakan pertimbangan, pengalaman dan intuisi dalam
mengadapi risiko
Pertimbangkan risiko yang boleh dikawal dan yang tidak
boleh dikawal.
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RISK MANAGEMENT

DECISION MAKING TOOLS

Risk Management is not about predicting

the future
It is about understanding the project and
making a better decision with regard to
the management of the project for
tomorrow.
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RISK MANAGEMENT

WASTING TIME
WASTING MONEY
CORRECT
DECISION WASTING SKILLED
MAKING WILL
SAVES FROM
HUMAN RESOURCES
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RISK MANAGEMENT

THE DECISION
MAKING THAT
NEED A;

RATIONAL
REPEATABLE
JUSTIFIABLE RISK METHDOLOGY
RISK INTERPRETATION
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WHAT IS RISK MANAGEMENT?
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DEFINITION

Risk Management is a system which aims to

identify and quantify all risks which the
business or project is exposed so that a
conscious decision can be taken on how to
manage the risks
Risk management system must be practical,
realistic and cost effective
Flanagan and Norman, 2003.
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RISK MANAGEMENT

Probability of occurrence

Low High
Impact
Low Expected
Trivial (remeh)
(dijangka)

High Hazard (bahaya) Risk

Management

Classification of risk sources

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RISK MANAGEMENT

WHAT WE CAN DO
?

To identify the risk sources

To quantify their effects (Risk Assessment and Analysis)
To develop response to risk
To provide for residual risk in the project estimates
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RISK MANAGEMENT

THE BENEFIT OF RISK

MANAGEMENT

Project issues are clarified, understood and considered from the start.
Decision are supported by thorough analysis
The definition and structure of the project are continually motivated
Clearer understanding of specific risk associated with a project
Build-up of historical data to assist future risk management procedures.
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Thank you
norliana@uthm.edu.my
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NEXT LECTURE:
RISK
MANAGEMENT IN
CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRY
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HANG ON THERE
FOR A SEC GUYS!
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Individual assignment for Sem. 1
Session 2017/2018

IS ALL RISK UNDESIRABLE?

PLEASE ILLUSTRATE AND
EXPLAIN YOUR ANSWER.
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Individual assignment (10%)
Instruction
1. The answer can be YES or can be NO.
2. If YES explain!
3. If NO explain!
4. Important thing is, you must make an ILLUSTRATION of your
answer. I dont want a boring report.
5. Another important point is, support your answer with
EXPLAINATIONS.
6. No format for the assignment it can be a A3 poster, type,
handwriting, tampal... etc etc
7. Please submit before/on Wednesday 25th October 2017 ( before
4.30pm at my office (Level 7, FPTP).
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EXAMPLE:
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EXAMPLE: