International Negotiation

Baldeo, Edgie Lyn D. November 25, 2017

AB Foreign Service-FS401 Sir Jumel G. Estraero

A. Iran Nuclear Deal: A deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries

B. Chapters

I. Abstract
There are selected countries in the world have a nuclear capability of creating a nuclear
energy. Iran has aimed to acquire the know-how to harness nuclear power. It has been
scientifically successful. However, it was sanctioned by the foremost world powers for
doing so. The purpose of this paper is to analyze how the Iranian nuclear dossier came
about and how it became a global issue, how it was resolved and who will benefit from
its resolution.
The deal has implications for the domestic and foreign policies of the U.S Developments
in the Middle East, domestic. American politics as well as US-Iran bilateral equations
carry a cart load of unpredictable events that would cause difficulties on the road to
implementation of the nuclear deal.
Introduction
A deal between Iran and six world powers the P5+1countries the United States, United
Kingdom, Russia, France, China, and Germany. The deal was under Barack Obama
who is the former President of the United States of America.
The European Union announced the nuclear agreement. The nuclear deal with Iran with
the P5+1 has signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on July 14, 2015
in Vienna, Austria. This is about the nuclear activities within Iran wherein the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is monitoring it and in exchange for
sanctions relief. The deal was also joined by the Middle East because of the criticism
from U.S allies in region those countries from the Middle East are Israel, Saudi Arabia,
and other Arab States in the Persian Gulf to oppose the agreement. And now the US
President Donald Trump, who is a Republican candidate, he called the Iran nuclear deal
the worst deal ever. When Trump is one of a candidate for Presidency he announced
that he will not decertify about the nuclear deal with Iran. He said that there will be new
sanctions on Iran, the International sanctions was been lifted.
The Iran Nuclear Deal is an historic deal. It blocks every possible pathway Iran could
use to build a nuclear bomb while ensuring through a comprehensive, intrusive, and
unprecedented verification and transparency regime that Irans nuclear program
remains exclusively peaceful moving forward.
Laurence Norman & Jay Solomon, Iran, World Powers Reach Nuclear Deal, The Wall Street Journal (14 July
2015).
The nuclear program of Iran has included a several research sites, two uranium mines,
a research reactor, a uranium processing facilities that include three unknown uranium
enrichment plants.
In Iran, conservatives continue to criticize the deal, but most have accepted it as the law
of the land. In the United States, even critics of the JCPOA have asked the new
administration to avoid tearing it up. Two years after the deal was first signed, with the
Trump administrations Iran policy under review and President Hassan Rouhani starting
his second and final term in office, this policy analysis takes stock of the JCPOAs
implementation process.

II. A. Statement of the Problem:

The purpose of this research is to determine those sanctions regarding the Iran nuclear
deal.
1. What are the sanctions on Iran?

2. What lifting Iran sanctions means for world markets?

3. Does Iran still face sanctions?

B. Methodology:
A process used to collect information and data for the purpose of making business
decisions. It is a way to systematically and logically solve a problem.
I used Institutionalism as a technique in which it distinguishes between institutional
theories and theories of institution. In institutionalism it is better to characterized as a
method not as a body of substantive work motivated by the so called chaos problem.
The concept of an institution can be formal and informal organizations. The institutions
have often been an understood as formal organizations governed by written laws or
rules. For the examples of formal institutions these are parliament, the US Presidency,
and political parties. The informal organizations might lack written rules. Examples of
informal Institutions are community groups and policy networks.
By using the Political Institutionalism as a technique it will help the researcher by
focusing on the political process and it outcomes. This is an approach that emphasizes
the role of institutions.
 I. Review of the Related Literature
Foreign Studies
Regional implications of a nuclear agreement with Iran

Iran has an opaque and convoluted political system, riven by factions and presided over
by a Supreme Leader who has often made decisions by not making decisions or by
splitting the Solomonic baby. Indeed, it seems most likely that following any nuclear
deal there will be a debate in Tehran over Iranian foreign policy (as there always is) with
moderates and reformists arguing for Iran to use the deal as the start of a larger
process of re-opening to the world and even rapprochement with the United States,
while various hardliners and conservatives argue that a deal makes such moves
unnecessary and that instead Iran can and must redouble its efforts to export
Khomeinis revolution and drive the U.S. and its allies out of the Middle East altogether.

Based on his various statements over the years, it seems most likely that Khameneis
perspective on a nuclear deal is purely transactional. If he ultimately agrees to one, it
seems likely that it will be solely to get the sanctions removed. Nothing more and
nothing less. It seems unlikely he will countenance a wider rapprochement with the
United Stateswhatever Foreign Minister Zarif and possibly President Rouhani may
want.

Iran has always seemed to fashion discrete policies toward different states of the
region. In each case, it has a certain set of interests in a country and engages in a
policy debate over how to act toward that countryin which Irans complicated domestic
politics interact with various strategic perspectives to produce a policy toward that
country. Right now, Iran probably has a Syria policy based on its interests and its
politics as they relate to Syria. It appears to have an Iraq policy based on its interests
and its politics as they relate to Iraq and with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, etc.
Neither those interests nor those politics appear likely to change much, if at all, as a
result of the nuclear deal. Instead, Iranian actions toward all of those places seem
precisely calibrated to what Iran is trying to achieve there, and that is unlikely to be
affected by the nuclear deal one way or the other.

The Middle East after the Iran Nuclear Deal

The nuclear deal inked by Iran and major powers has implications not just for
proliferation, but Middle Eastern security as well. Five experts weigh in on what the deal
means for regional powers and conflicts.

Negotiations between Iran and major powers were narrow in scope, focused on limiting
Irans nuclear program in exchange for relief from nuclear-related
sanctions. Nevertheless, the deal they yielded has broader implications for a region

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strewn with local conflicts that have been exacerbated by the interventions of regional
powers. Five experts weigh in on how Middle Eastern states and non-state actors are
calibrating their policies, and what the new regional landscape might portend for
conflicts from the Levant to Yemen.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) does not announce Irans arrival as a
regional hegemon, something few among Tehrans decision-making elite believe Iran
has either the ideological or military capacity to achieve. Iranian leaders also know that
there is little appetite for such an aggressive posture among a population weary of war
with neighbors and hostile relations with world powers. Yet the agreements Iranian
proponents argue that despite limitations placed on the countrys nuclear program, the
deal enhances Irans security and consolidates its regional clout.

Foreign Minister Mohamad Javad Zarif, for example, argues before Iranian audiences
that in foreign capitals worldwide in recent years, "Iranophobia" had taken root. He
blames the broad-based international sanctions that had been imposed on Iran on a
widely held belief that Iran is an aggressive or irrational actor that poses a danger to
regional and international security.

But since Iran negotiated on rather than gave up its nuclear program, it demonstrated to
major powers that it would not be bullied with military threats and economic sanctions,
Zarif and like-minded advocates of the deal argue. The two-year-long nuclear
negotiations undermined Iranophobia in many foreign capitals as major powers learned
they canand, indeed, mustresolve their differences with Iran via diplomatic
channels rather than by coercion.

China and the Iran Nuclear Deal

The deal offers some significant and sobering lessons on multilateralism with Chinese
characteristics.

China was critical to the accomplishment of this landmark initiative, which has
implications for nonproliferation and international security. Additionally, as the worlds
second largest economy and the largest export destination for Iranian oil, China serves
as a critical lifeline to the Iranian economy and, thus, the stability of the Iranian regime.
Beijings objection or non-participation would effectively undermine international efforts
to sanction or isolate Tehran. This has been aptly demonstrated by Chinese behavior in
relation to other Western-led efforts targeting rogue regimes. Resolution 2231 is a
notable precedent in diplomatic efforts to combat nuclear proliferation and other issues
of global governance. Indeed, the Iran nuclear deal offers significant and sobering
lessons in what may be called multilateralism with Chinese characteristics.

Local Studies
Iran's Economic Outreach to Southeast Asia

President Hassan Rouhanis three-nation trip to Southeast Asia in October, which

began in Vietnam and was followed by stops in Malaysia and Thailand, culminated in
his address to the second Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) Summit in Bangkok. The
primary purpose of the Rouhani visit to the region was to stimulate trade and investment
part of a broader pattern of heightened diplomatic activity marking the end of Irans
international isolation and aimed at fueling the countrys economic recovery.

Contact between Iran and Southeast Asia is not new. Iranian traders have been present
in the region for centuries. In recent years, the region has become home to a diverse
Iranian diaspora community, of whom more than 100,000 live and work in Malaysia
alone. But Irans current outreach to Southeast Asia is focused on the future, and
primarily on doing business. This is not surprising, given that the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a major economic force in Asia and a key driver of
global growth.

By 2030, the gross domestic product (G.D.P.) of the so-called ASEAN tigers
Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand is expected to exceed US$1
trillion. Vietnam is also on a rapid growth trajectory, as are the frontier markets of
Cambodia and Laos. With the launching of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in
November 2015, the ten-member bloc is on track to become a fully integrated market.
These bright prospects form the backdrop for Irans efforts to reestablish and expand
economic ties with the ASEAN countries, which had languished as a result of
international sanctions.

This essay provides a brief overview of Irans relations with Southeast Asian nations
during the sanctions period, looks at the initial results of President Rouhanis recent visit
to the region, and considers the prospects for the further expansion of these ties.

II. Presentation, Interpretation & Analysis or PAID (Pres, Analysis, &

Interpretation of the Data)

After one year of Iran nuclear deal it has been a success when the speakers agreed. In
the diplomatic agreement the Iran cut its uranium stockpile by 98 percent, the
dismantled for almost 13,000 centrifuges and ripped out the core of its plutonium
reactor. Iran was also agreed to intrusive inspections and to monitor of its nuclear

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facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency, to ensure that the nuclear program
will remain peaceful.

The achievement of the agreement between Iran and six world powers to end the
Islamic republics nuclear weapons it was a new era for the Middle East within its policy
in which it potentially far-reaching implications.

"Today, after many months of tough, principled diplomacy, we have achieved the
framework for that deal. And it is a good deal; a deal that meets our core objectives.
This framework would cut off every pathway that Iran could take to develop a nuclear
weapon," Obama said in a statement delivered to reporters in Washington.

According to the joint statement in Switzerland, the P5+1 countries and Iran agreed on a
framework for a deal. According to this framework, Iran would redesign, convert, and
reduce its nuclear facilities and accept the Additional Protocol (with provisional
application) in order to lift all nuclear-related economic sanctions, freeing up tens of
billions of dollars in oil revenue and frozen assets. In addition to the joint statement, the
United States and Iran issued fact sheets of their own.

In addition to the final statement, both the United States and Iran have made public
more detailed descriptions of their agreement. Officials of both sides acknowledge that
they have different narratives on this draft. The U.S. government has published a fact
sheet summarizing the main points of the deal. Shortly after it was published, top Iranian
officials, including the Iranian supreme leader and the Iranian minister of defense have
disputed the document on key points which remain unresolved.

V. Summary, Conclusion & Recommendation

Summary

Two years ago in Vienna, the United States and five other countries (China, France,
Germany, Russia, and the UK) along with a representative of the European Union,
collectively known as the E3/EU+3, signed a nuclear agreement with Iran. The deal was
immediately hailed as historic by both its supporters and its detractors. Yet very few of
its supporters - or its detractors - know what the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) signed in Vienna actually says.

The Plan of Action very effectively shuts off all of Iran's paths to a nuclear weapon for
fifteen years and provides other safeguards against Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons
indefinitely. Even in a worst-case scenario - where Iran kicks out all international
inspectors and races for a bomb - for at least ten to fifteen years, the breakout time for
one nuclear weapon would be roughly one year. Most significantly, the Plan of Action
decisively shuts down the plutonium pathway for fifteen years and in all likelihood much
longer.
The ministers of foreign affairs of France, Germany, the European Union, Iran, the
United Kingdom and the United States as well as Chinese and Russian diplomats
announcing the framework for a Comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear
program.

The promise of the deal includes not only rolling back Irans nuclear capabilities for the
foreseeable future but also paving the way toward a more constructive diplomatic
relationship between Washington and Tehran. Its survival, however, depends on
complex and turbulent domestic politics in both countries.

Since he started his bid for office, President Donald Trump has been a forceful detractor
of the agreement, repeatedly vowing to dismantle it. Today, his administration is
conducting a review of its Iran policy, of which the nuclear deal is a critical component.
He has already indicated that he wants to increase pressure on Iran, and his
administration has upped the ante with the Islamic Republic, including by suggesting
that America is looking to support elements pursuing a transition of power in that
country.

But the nuclear deal affords the United States a number of opportunities, if the
administration sustains it. The United States should clearly reaffirm its commitment to
the deal; help reintegrate Iran into the international economy; keep official channels of
communication open with Tehran; and engage, rather than isolate, the Islamic Republic.

Conclusion

Some people in Iran are worried about threat of the U.S. and Israeli attack on their
nuclear facilities. The options of isolating Iran from the world will be direr then to reduce
the Iranian quest of nuclear weapons. It will be a threat to global security. There should
be a comprehensive strategy to meet the Iran security dilemma and its future energy
needs. The West should also consider living with nuclear Iran. However, if the nuclear
risk in the Middle East is to be removed, serious talks should take place over Israel case
to rollback its nuclear program for the sake of global security. That can be made
possible only if Palestinian issue is resolved amicably.

Additionally, the West must also understand the history and culture of Iranian nation and
accordingly plan their negotiating strategy to deal with them. Containment, sanctions or
military action would not be a perfect or a foolproof policy against Iran's nuclear
program. A weaker state has to see threats posed to its security by a much stronger
state and the only viable response against such a threat is the nuclear deterrence. It is
worth mentioning that Iran's security needs and regional objectives against the U.S. are
compelling her to look for alternative security arrangements. If its national interests are
well protected through assured guarantees, Iran might change its position and come
forward with a positive response.

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 Recommendation

1. Protect Pro-Democracy Iranians

In signing the JCPOA, the P5+1 opted to trust a regime that boasts of deceiving the
West, rather than the Iranian people, who are generally acknowledged to be pro-
western and anti-regime.

2. Challenge Iranian Meddling

The JCPOA did nothing to deter the violence, terror and displacement that Iran exports
to its neighbors. In the two years since signing the JCPOA, the P5+1 have turned a
blind eye to the expansion of Iranian influence in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.
Western credibility with its regional allies has suffered as a result; the prospects with a
host of regional actors have increased; and the Iranian regime has been emboldened.
An agreement that ignores Irans extraterritorial incursions, chemical weapons and
terrorism isnt an agreement; its capitulation.

3. Get Tough on Ballistic Missiles

An essential element of any nuclear program is the ability to deliver a warhead via
ballistic missiles. While the JCPOA was able to pause projects related to the nuclear
fuel cycle for 10 (now eight) years, ballistic missile testing was left unchecked.

President Trump has addressed the ongoing development of Iran's missile program,
saying, We cannot let a murderous regime continue these destabilizing activities while
building dangerous missiles, and we cannot abide by an agreement if it provides for the
eventual construction of a nuclear program.

4. Stop Funding the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

The JCPOA released billions of dollars in frozen assets to Iran and opened the door to
deals worth billions more. The IRGC and its Quds Force, Irans weapons of choice in
spreading terror, control a financial empire comprising easily 40 percent of Irans total
economy. An estimated 80 percent of the profits of newly signed deals will directly
benefit the ruling regime, not the Iranian people, with the Quds Force as perhaps the
biggest winner.

5. Get Serious About Regime Change

Iran will remain a threat to the U.S. and its allies as long as the clerical regime remains
in power. If the United States is serious about changing Iranian behavior, it has to
consider changing the regime. Secretary of State Tillerson and Secretary of Defense
Mattis have publicly spoken about U.S. policy moving in this direction.
Key U.S. regional partners are also increasingly outspoken on this issue. Saudi Arabia,
the Syrian opposition, Egypt, Yemen and the Palestinian Authority all sent official
delegations to a gathering of around 100,000supporters of the Iranian opposition in
Paris. In his remarks to the gathering, former Saudi Intelligence Chief and Ambassador
to the United States Prince Turki bin Faisal bin Abdulaziz al Saud said, The behavior of
the regime in Tehran does not make it a democratic system, but a murderous
dictatorship.

He called on all sectors of Iranian society to free them from the rule of Velayat-e
Faqih (theocratic despotism). President Trumps reference to the murderous regime in
Tehran that cannot endure forever, was spot-on.

If President Trump is looking for genuine change, the circumstances are ripe and the
time is now.

Ambassador Adam Ereli was the U.S. Ambassador to Bahrain and deputy State
Department spokesperson during the Bush administration.

VI. References

The World Bank, Irans Economic Outlook, (April 2017),

http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/publication/economic-outlook-april-2017.

Trump adds to tough talk on Iran even as he sticks with deal for now, CNN, April 20,
2017, http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/19/politics/tillerson-iran-nuclear-deal-review/.

Under Trump, U.S. policy is moving from accommodation to confrontation,Markaz

blog, May 11, 2017, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/05/11/under-trump-u-
s-policy-on-iran-is-moving-from-accommodation-to-confrontation/.

Iran, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction, Studies in Conflict and

Terrorism 31, no. 3 (2008): 169-181; The Lebanese Hizballah and Israeli
Counterterrorism, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 34, no. 12 (2011): 917-941; and
Daniel Byman and Bilal Saab, Hezbollah Hesitates? Foreign Affairs, January 21, 2015,
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/israel/2015-01-21/hezbollah-hesitates.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35335078
https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/IranDealDefinitiveGuide.pdf
https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/nuclear-deal-fallout-the-global-threat-of-iran/

Bradner, Eric (2 April 2015). "What's in the Iran nuclear deal? 7 key points". CNN.
Retrieved 2 April 2015.

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Julian Borger and Paul Lewis, "Iran nuclear deal: negotiators announce 'framework'
agreement", The Guardian, Thursday 2 April 2015 (page visited on 2 April 2015

"Tweet by Iran supreme leader rejecting the US fact sheet". 9 April 2015.

"Tweet by Iran supreme leader rejecting Inspections as described in US published Fact

Sheet". 9 April 2015.

"Iran Defense Minister Rejects Report on Inspection of Military Centers Based on

Lausanne Understanding". 8 April 2015.

The Times of Israel, 22 July 2015, Irans deputy FM: We told world powers well keep
arming our allies, http://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-deputy-fm-we-told-world-powers-
well-keep-arming-our-allies/

"Iran nuclear deal: Key details". U.S. Department of State.