John J.

Murphy
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INTERMARKET ANALYSIS
USING EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS IN ASSET
ALLOCATION & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
 Intermarket Changes
The Deflation Scenario
Bonds and Stocks Decoupled
The Resurgence of Gold
The Role of Oil
Asset Allocation
Economic Forecasting
 WEAK DOLLAR FAVORS
GLOBAL MARKETS & GOLD
September 24th, 2004
 COMMODITIES
September 21st, 2004

IN LONG ARE STRONGEST

TERM UPTREND ASSET CLASS
CANADA & LATIN AMERICA TOP GLOBAL FUNDS
USING GLOBAL ETFS TO PLAY COMMODITIES
September 28th, 2004
EMERGING MARKETS ETF BENEFITING
FROM RISING COMMODITIES & CHIPS
TOP HOLDINGS: SEMICONDUCTORS (16%) & MATERIALS (15%)
October 1st, 2004
TAIWAN ETF HAS STRONG CHIP LINKS
October 4th, 2004
 Sector Rotations
CRB Favors Basic Materials, Cyclicals

Bonds Favor Financials and Housing

Late Cycle = Energy and Staples

Early Cycle = Tech. and Transports

Energy and Consumer Staple Leadership Isnt Good
March 10th, 2004
 Rotation Out of Cyclicals and Small Caps:
Loss of NASDAQ Leadership Bad for Market
February 4th, 2004
WHY NASDAQ LEADERSHIP
IS IMPORTANT October 1st, 2004

NASDAQ 100/
S&P 500 Ratio
ROTATION FROM ENERGY INTO CHIPS?
October 12th, 2004
OIL AND AIRLINES GOOD
FOR MARKET
October 28th, 2004
INDUSTRIALS & TRANSPORTS IN ONE ETF
October 27th, 2004
HIGHER YUAN MAY HURT DOLLAR,
HELP GOLD
October 28th, 2004
ASIAN DOLLAR BUYING KEEPING
US RATES LOW
October 19th, 2004
 OIL SERVICE STOCKS
ARE JUST STARTING UPTREND
September 23rd, 2004
 BAKER HUGHES COMPLETES
BULLISH TRIANGLE
BHI IS BIGGEST HOLDING (10.7%) IN AMEX OIL SERVICE ETF (OIH)
September 28th, 2004
 Intermarket Implications
Post-Boom Decade: Not Good
Paper Hard Assets
Using ETFs For Asset Allocation
Importance of Charts The Big View
TA + Economics + Fundamentals
Thank You!