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STUDIU DE CAZ

Numarul sectiilor sportive din Romania, in functie de numarul de


fotbalisti legitimati

1. Analiza primara a datelor

Tabelul de date
Sectii Fotbalisti
Anul sportive legitimati
2000 2264 86377
2001 2236 92150
2002 2289 90894
2003 2206 89200
2004 3016 111503
2005 294 11441
2006 273 11682
2007 271 13046
2008 2925 126812
2009 2923 127015
2010 2798 109463
2011 3044 119741
2012 3078 120520
2013 2991 122417
2014 2535 117328
2015 2885 132922
1482511

Pentru fiecare tip de date:

Diagrama
Histograma

Media si eroarea standard

2251,75 Mean or average

Standard error (variability of sample average, if random


256,5790245 sample)
2. Analiza de corelatie si regresie

Diagrama de imprastiere

Corelatia

Correlation between
0,985533262 $B$3:$B$18 and $C$3:$C$18

Ecuatia de regresie

Regression analysis to predict $D$3:$D$18 from $C$3:$C$18.


The prediction equation is:
$D$3:$D$18 = 655,2417799
+40,8578642 $C$3:$C$18

0,97127581 R squared
7464,333222 Standard error of estimate
16 Number of observations
473,3940823 F statistic
3,42287E-12 p value

95% 95%
Coeff LowerCI UpperCI StdErr t p Sig
Constant 655,2417799 -9257,83174 10568,3153 4621,939 0,141768 0,889283 No
$C$3:$C$18 40,8578642 36,83024547 44,88548294 1,877864 21,75762 3,42E-12 Yes

The R-squared value, 97.1%, indicates the proportion of the variance of $D$3:$D$18
that is explained by the regression model.
Thus $C$3:$C$18 explains
A very highly significant proportion of the variation in $D$3:$D$18, based on the F test (p<0.001).
The standard error of estimate, 7464.333222, indicates the typical size
of errors made in predicting $D$3:$D$18 using the regression model.
We estimate that:
40,8578642 is the increase in $D$3:$D$18 associated with an increase in $C$3:$C$18 of 1 unit. This is ve
Simulare cu ecuatia de regresie

Sectii simulate
Sectii regresie
1754 72318,419
334 14301,479
507 21369,74
1927 79386,68
436 18468,893
2178 89641,787
1482 61205,315
2169 89274,074
759 31665,704
589 24720,014
1560 64392,161
2612 107373,725
1700 70112,141
2379 97854,044
1469 60674,174
2938 120693,107
1732 71419,565
2370 97486,331
903 37549,112
2158 88824,647
1104 45761,369
2228 91684,637
1292 53442,485
2367 97363,76
2234 91929,779
2693 110683,142
1714 70684,139
2637 108395,15
1097 45475,37
2126 87517,223
2330 95852,051
419 17774,324
1194 49438,499
459 19408,604
1353 55934,762
1654 68232,719
3021 124084,238
3006 123471,383
2039 83962,664
1099 45557,084
2582 106148,015
2268 93318,917
1444 59652,749
1202 49765,355
478 20184,887
721 30113,138
1902 78365,255
3050 125269,091
2208 90867,497
856 35628,833
301 12953,198
631 26436,008
497 20961,17
1860 76649,261
1536 63411,593
2590 106474,871
1766 72808,703
2884 118486,829
3068 126004,517
988 41021,957
2011 82818,668
1951 80367,248
2942 120856,535
1954 80489,819
1853 76363,262
565 23739,446
2055 84616,376
1242 51399,635
1672 68968,145
2609 107251,154
1251 51767,348
2664 109498,289
1216 50337,353
2772 113910,845
1375 56833,616
916 38080,253
802 33422,555
1577 65086,73
1977 81429,53
1909 78651,254
2651 108967,148
2443 100468,892
2163 89028,932
1658 68396,147
1867 76935,26
907 37712,54
1905 78487,826
1677 69172,43
2098 86373,227
1223 50623,352
2753 113134,562
1418 58590,467
1987 81838,1
3047 125146,52
2637 108395,15
1113 46129,082
1528 63084,737
1539 63534,164
1551 64024,448
2769 113788,274
2123 87394,652
Diagrama, histograma, media si eroarea standard pentru simulare

Diagrama

Histograma

Media si eroarea standard


72346,74 Mean or average

3043,098 Standard error (variability of sample average, if random sample)

3. Metoda Monte Carlo


Tabelul de probabilitati si probabilitati cumulate

Sectii Fotbalisti Probabilitatea


Anul sportive legitimati Probabilitatea cumulata
2000 2264 86377 0,058263986 0,058263986
2001 2236 92150 0,062158055 0,120422041
2002 2289 90894 0,061310844 0,181732884
2003 2206 89200 0,060168188 0,241901072
2004 3016 111503 0,075212258 0,31711333
2005 294 11441 0,007717312 0,324830642
2006 273 11682 0,007879874 0,332710516
2007 271 13046 0,008799935 0,341510451
2008 2925 126812 0,085538657 0,427049108
2009 2923 127015 0,085675587 0,512724695
2010 2798 109463 0,073836214 0,586560909
2011 3044 119741 0,080769047 0,667329956
2012 3078 120520 0,081294506 0,748624462
2013 2991 122417 0,082574092 0,831198554
2014 2535 117328 0,079141403 0,910339957
2015 2885 132922 0,089660043 1
1482511

Simulare cu metoda Monte Carlo

Limita Sectii Numere Sectii


Anul inferioara sportive Intervale aleatoare simulate
2000 0 2264 [0;0,058263986) 0,958724182 2885
2001 0,058263986 2236 [0.058263986;0,1240422041) 0,518215287 2798
2002 0,120422041 2289 [0,1240422041;0,181732884) 0,485066228 2923
2003 0,181732884 2206 [0,181732884;0,241901072) 0,159500645 2289
2004 0,241901072 3016 [0,241901072;0,31711333) 0,333715204 271
2005 0,31711333 294 [0,31711333;0,324830642) 0,269571214 3016
2006 0,324830642 273 [0,324830642;0,332710516) 0,239200995 2206
2007 0,332710516 271 [0,332710516;0,341510451) 0,698697832 3078
2008 0,341510451 2925 [0,341510451;0,427049108) 0,490305527 2923
2009 0,427049108 2923 [0,427049108;0,512724695) 0,168153107 2289
2010 0,512724695 2798 [0,512724695;0,586560909) 0,923675112 2885
2011 0,586560909 3044 [0,586560909;0,667329956) 0,476689008 2923
2012 0,667329956 3078 [0,667329956;0,748624462) 0,112390891 2236
2013 0,748624462 2991 [0,748624462;0,831198554) 0,572455999 2798
2014 0,831198554 2535 [0,831198554;0,910339957) 0,797928322 2991
2015 0,910339957 2885 [0,910339957;1) 0,890093426 2535

Diagrama, histograma, media si eroarea standard pentru simulare


2753,901 Mean or average

Standard error (variability of sample average, if random


38,23604 sample)
4. Concluzii

Diagrama de imprastiere si corelatia dintre cele doua tipuri de


simulari

0,06222159 Correlation between $D$126:$D$225 and $P$4:$P$103