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2.1 MARKET ASSESMENT
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Table 2.2: Production of Toluene in worldwide (in million T)
Country Capacity 2002 Capacity 2008 Increasing Growth rate
Western 2.6 2.6 0.0 0.0%
Europe
North 6.0 10.5 4.5 9.9%
America
Middle East 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0%
Total 18.9 24.5 5.6 4.5%
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Producer Location Capacity,Â
106gal
Atofina Petrochemicals Atofina Petrochemicals 50
BP Chemicals Texas City, Tex. 25
Chalmette Refining Chalmette, La. 110
Citgo Corpus Christi, Tex.; Lemont, Ill. 55
Clark Refining and Marketing Lima, Ohio 105
Chevron Phillips Chemical Port Arthur, Tex 45
Chevron Phillips Chemical Sweeny, Tex.; Guayama, P.R. 120
Dow Chemical Plaquemine, La 15
El Paso Energy Corpus Christi, Tex.; Westvllie, N.J. 65
Equistar Chemicals Alvin, Tex.; 70
Channelview, Tex.;
Baytown, Tex.;
Beaumont, Tex
Flint Hills Resources Corpus Christi, Tex. 160
Frontier El Dorado Refining El Dorado, Kan 10
Hovensa St. Croix, V.I 900
Shell Chemical Deer Park, Tex. 35
Sunoco Marcus Hook, Pa.; 145
Philadelphia;
Toledo, Ohio
Tosco Alliance, La. 65
Total 2,660
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2.1.2 PRODUCTION: REGIONAL
Asian aromatics producers of toluene are about 5.6 million tonne at 2002. Over
six years, the production is increasing about 6.5 million tonne per year for 2008
production. This 2.3% increasing of toluene depend on the world market demand and
the increasing number of plant that produce benzene, toluene and xylene (BTX). China
is the primary export and import of toluene. By this year, the total capacities were 6
million tonnes per year. Over six year from 2002 until 2008, total production of
toluene in Asia region is about 5.6 million tonnes in 2002 and increasing to 6.5 million
tonnes in 2008. This production is comes from South Korea 1.9 million tonnes,
Taiwan produce 0.1 million tonnes, India produce about 0.3 million tonnes, Japan 1.6
million tonnes, china is produce 1.0 million tonnes in 2002 and increase their
production to 1.7 in 2008. Another source, 0.7 million tonnes in 2002 and 0.9 million
tonnes comes from ASEAN country, (Forecast of Global Supply).
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2.1.3 PRODUCTION: NATIONAL
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*(-) no production
Asia toluene price is decreasing from last month. However, this is not a huge
drop maybe because huge supply arrived.
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North America price also drop because of following the rest of the aromatics
sector lower during the week.
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2.2.2 FUTURE PRICES
From 2002 to 2008, toluene demand has been increased from 15.0 MT to
19.1MT. It is increased 4.1MT in this 7 years and the growth rate is 4.1%. So,
according to this trend, in 2010 Toluene will further increase.
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Figure 2.3: Asia Toluene Demand
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Figure 2.6: Global Toluene Production 2002
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From 2002 to 2008, Asia is still in demand for Toluene by 1.7MT. It means
that industry of toluene really growth in Asia. Even North America production of
Toluene has been doubled it still need toluene by 0.4 in 2008. Since the beginning the
toluene supply is not enough at North America. Meanwhile, Western Europe has
produced excessive of toluene by 0.2MT from 0.2MT in 2002 to 0.4 MT. Middle East
toluene supply-demand is not changing. Asia and North America is the future market
of toluene in these incoming years.
2.4.1 IMPORTS
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Figure 2.8: Crude oil prices (WTRG Economics)
Based on the process that was chosen, the raw material that need to be use is
crude oil. The figure above gives a brief explanation on world crude oil prices from
1970 to August 2009. From the figure2.8, world crude oil prices are dependent on the
world situation. The price of the latest world crude oil is kept on decreasing from 2008
to August 2009 after the war in Iraq. The decreasing of world crude oil price gives a
positive impact to our Toluene plant because crude oil is the main raw material that
used to form Toluene.
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Crude Type Latest Price (13/08/2010)
Total World 76.77
United States 74.50
OPEC* Average 77.52
Abu Dhabi, Murban 39º 78.25
Algeria, Saharan Blend 44º 79.96
Angola, Cabinda 32º 78.75
Dubai, Fateh 32º 76.39
Ecuador, Oriente 30º 71.30
Iran, Heavy 30º 76.07
Iran, Light 34º 77.30
Iraq, Kirkuk 36º 76.89
Kuwait, Kuwait 31º 74.54
Libya, Es Sider 37º 77.63
Neutral Zone, Khafji 28º 77.73
Nigeria, Bonny Light 37º 80.87
Nigeria, Forcados 31º 80.79
Qatar, Dukhan 40º 77.81
Saudi Arabia, Arabian Heavy 27º 75.23
Saudi Arabia, Arabian 77.73
Saudi Arabia, Arabian Medium 31º 76.08
Venezeula, Bachaquero 17º NA
Venezeula, Bachaquero 24º NA
Venezuela, Tia Juana Light 31º 78.02
Non-OPEC* Average 75.76
Australia, Gippsland 42º 79.99
Brunei, Seria Light 37º
Cameroon, Kole 34º 78.28
Canada, Canadian Par 40º 70.99
Canada, Heavy Hardisty 22º 66.73
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Canada, Lloyd blend 22º
China, Daqing 33º 77.08
Colombia, Cano Limon 30º 79.25
Egypt, Suez Blend 33º 73.82
Gabon, Mandji 30º NA
Indonesia, Minas 34º 79.68
Malaysia, Tapis Blend 44º 80.94
Mexico, Isthmus 33º 77.91
Mexico, Maya 22º 70.28
Norway, Ekofisk 80.28
Oman, Oman Blend 34º 76.69
Russia, Urals 32º 77.36
United Kingdom, Brent Blend 38º 80.64
Based on the prices of crude oil from all the supplier around the world, our
plant have chosen crude oil that originally from Malaysia which is Tapis Blend 44 o
crude oil that is 80.94 dollar per barrel . Malaysia crude oil is one of the best crude oil
in the world. The price is higher than other country crude oil. The reason Tapis Blend
44o so expensive is the fact that it contains very little impurities, the worst of which is
Sulphur. The combustion of fossil fuels such as diesel, petrol and coal produces
sulphur dioxide and releases it into the atmosphere which when reacts with water
produces sulphuric acid, the main component of acid rain. Even though the price is
higher, our plants choose Tapis Blend 44o due to its high quality and we can cut the
time and cost for shipping it.
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2.4.2 EXPORTS
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Europe
North America 6.1 6.8 0.7 1.7
Middle East 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.0
Based on the table above, it shows the world demand on Toluene and the
differences of the world demand on Toluene between 2002 and 2008. We can see that
the highest demand is in South Korea, 17.3% and followed by China, 13.2%. The
lowest demand is in Western Europe that was decreasing from 1.9 to 1.8 which is
-0.3%. Thus, we have decided to choose china as our main customer due to the high
demand in toluene. The growth rate demand of toluene also is keeping on increasing in
China because of the chemical industry that demanding for Toluene is getting bigger.
Moreover, the shipping cost can be cut down because of the distance is shorter
compared to South Korea that have higher demand on Toluene.
The quantity of the desired production of the toluene plant is 95 MTPA. It has
been chosen to be for 330 working days.
Production programmed of the plant is set as follows.
• 75% of plant capacity during the first year,
• 85% of plant capacity during the second year, and
• 100% of plant capacity starting from the third year.
The production programmed is set by not considering Sundays and public holidays.
= RM 2816 / MT – RM 1631.4 / MT
= RM 1184.6 / MT
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= RM 112537/ year
CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
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http://eas.taonline.com.my/research/dco/ipo_5103_050606.PDF[Accessed
21thAugust 2010].
• U.S Energy Information Administration (2010).World Crude Oil Prices.
[Online] Available from World Wide Web:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_wco_k_w.html[Accessed 21st August
2010]
• Williams J.L (2010). Oil Price History and Analysis. [Online]Available from
World Wide: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm[Accessed 20th August 2010]
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