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"OR" or Unions
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time. Another word that means mutually
exclusive is disjoint.
If two events are disjoint, then the probability of them both occurring at the same time is 0.
If two events are mutually exclusive, then the probability of either occurring is the sum of the probabilities of
each occurring.
Example 1:
I like to use what's called a joint probability distribution. (Since disjoint means nothing in common, joint is
what they have in common -- so the values that go on the inside portion of the table are the intersections or
"and"s of each pair of events). "Marginal" is another word for totals -- it's called marginal because they
appear in the margins.
B B' Marginal
The values in red are given in the problem. The grand total is always 1.00. The rest of the values are obtained
by addition and subtraction.
people.richland.edu/…/ch05-rul.html 1/4
11/6/2010 Stats: Probability Rules
General Addition Rule
Always valid.
Example 2:
Marginal . . 1.00
"AND" or Intersections
Independent Events
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not change the probability of the other occurring.
An example would be rolling a 2 on a die and flipping a head on a coin. Rolling the 2 does not affect the
probability of flipping the head.
If events are independent, then the probability of them both occurring is the product of the probabilities of
each occurring.
Example 3:
The 0.14 is because the probability of A and B is the probability of A times the probability of B or 0.20 *
0.70 = 0.14.
Dependent Events
If the occurrence of one event does affect the probability of the other occurring, then the events are
dependent.
Conditional Probability
The probability of event B occurring that event A has already occurred is read "the probability of B given A"
and is written: P(B|A)
Always works.
Example 4:
A good way to think of P(B|A) is that 40% of A is B. 40% of the 20% which was in event A is 8%, thus the
intersection is 0.08.
B B' Marginal
Independence Revisited
The following four statements are equivalent
The last two are because if two events are independent, the occurrence of one doesn't change the probability
of the occurrence of the other. This means that the probability of B occurring, whether A has happened or
not, is simply the probability of B occurring.
Table of Contents
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