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Brazil continues red hot credit expansion
By Leonardo Cardoso
New York, 08/29/10
Crises do not develop overnight. Crisis is the culmination of greed and stupidity over longer periods. I last
commented on how quickly credit is expanding in Brazil and possible scenarios for continued consumption growth.
This past week, there was further evidence of continued credit expansion in Brazil.
On August 24, the Brazilian central bank reported an increase of 1.2% on total outstanding bank loans to R$1.55
trillion (US$884.0 billion1) from the previous month and 18.4% increase from the same period last year.
Outstanding bank loans now represent 45.9% of Brazilian GDP vs. 42.8% during the same period last year.
While US banks are decreasing their exposure to loans and increasing their exposure to US Treasuries, Brazilian
banks are decreasing their exposure to Brazilian Gov’t debt and increasing their exposure to consumer and
commercial loans. The plunge in the benchmark rate (SELIC) from 45% in 1999 to 8.75% this year has influence
how banks allocate their assets. According to the Brazilian Central bank data, 10yrs Gov’t notes on local currency
currently yield 11.3% vs. 35.4% banks are charging companies and consumers for loans.
As a result, Brazilian banks are realizing that it is better to lend because it is more profitable. The three largest
Brazilian banks (Banco do Brasil, Itau and Bradesco), reported double digits earnings growth during the 2Q10; and
most expect this trend to continue, at least in the short‐term.
As crises do not develop overnight, I expect Brazilian banks to do well in the short‐term. Nevertheless, the risk of
an increase in defaults or delinquencies is also increasing. As the middle class expanded, many borrowers are
receiving credit for the first time ever. Therefore, it is hard to predict how well they will manage their finances. As I
pointed out on my last comment, from 2005 to 2009 household debt to income ratio almost doubled from 18% to
35% and currently, households are spending about 25% of their income to service their debt (amortization of
principal and interest).
In summary, as long as the minimum wage is rising, unemployment is low and credit standard do not deteriorate
too much – as happened in the US – I believe that Brazilian banks will report good profits. As all good things must
end, I will jump ship as soon as the first cracks show up: rising in delinquencies/defaults, persistent lack of increase
in income, stupid household debt to income and debt servicing ratios, etc… Meanwhile, who wants to buy a new
fridge for only 12 x R$133.25, or a new office chair for 6 x R$33.32, what about some 4 new pillows for only 3 x
R$29.97. Oh, by the way, no discounts for cash payments!!!!
1
USD/BRL: 1.75
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