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Grassroots and Rebellion: A Study on the Futureof the Moro Struggle in Mindanao, Philippines
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Civil Wars · December 2012
DOI: 10.1080/13698249.2012.740202
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Civil Wars
ISSN: 1369-8249 (Print) 1743-968X (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/fciv20
Grassroots and Rebellion: A Study on the Future of the Moro Struggle in Mindanao, Philippines
Alpaslan Özerdem & Sukanya Podder
To cite this article:
Alpaslan Özerdem & Sukanya Podder (2012) Grassroots and Rebellion: AStudy on the Future of the Moro Struggle in Mindanao, Philippines, Civil Wars, 14:4, 521-545, DOI:10.1080/13698249.2012.740202
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13698249.2012.740202
Published online: 04 Jan 2013.Submit your article to this journal Article views: 572View related articles Citing articles: 2 View citing articles
Grassroots and Rebellion: A Studyon the Future of the Moro Struggle inMindanao, Philippines
ALPASLAN O¨ ZERDEM AND SUKANYA PODDER
An important aspect in the resolution of civil conflict pertains to the politicaltransition of rebel groups, dissipation of their command structures and reintegration of former combatants. In this paper, we draw on empirical datacollectedinselectcommunitiesofLanao,CotabatoandMaguindanaoprovincesof Mindanao, Philippines during June 2010 to explore future trends in civiliansupport for the main separatist rebel outfit in Mindanao – the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). We test variance in the existence of recruitment poolsamong the two main Muslim ethnic groups – the Maranao and the Maguindanao. Our findings suggest that recruitment into MILF is not simplyaboutreligionorideology,this isasimplificationofitsunderlyingsupport base.Several factors such as geographic location, especially proximity to Armed Forces of the Philippines camps, and conflict-related impacts of displacement,togetherwithdisparityingovernancedeliverylevels,haveresultedindivergencein levels of support for the Bangsamoro struggle between the two main ethnicgroups. These variables will have an impact on the future existence of the MILF as a rebel movement.
INTRODUCTION
Community-combatant relations in civil conflict is today evolving as an importantarea of research; it draws on the trends in rebel group behaviour towards civiliancommunities that is well documented in recent research on insurgent and politicalviolence.
1
Rebel group–community interaction is a principal and agent relationshipthat can be mutually reinforcing, predatory, and protective or even symbiotic.
2
Rebels rely on civilians to provide them sanctuary, provisions, information and otherresources.
3
Yet, for a positive support relationship, rebel groups need to transcendfrom being roving bandits to stationary providers of social services, prominentlygovernance, justice, law enforcement and security.
4
Key trends in current research highlight the nature of rebellion as being theprimary determinant of rebel behaviour. Opportunistic rebellions permit indisciplinein their ranks to maintain membership and retain recruits. Predation is closely tiedwith limited access and heightened competition for resources and recruitmentpools.
5
Insurgent violence offers a strategic tool for controlling local population and
Civil Wars, Vol. 14, No. 4 (December 2012), pp. 521–545
ISSN 1369-8249 print/ISSN 1743-968X onlinehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13698249.2012.740202
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