Larry Williams

Forecast 2017 December 2016

L arr y Williams 12th Annual Market Analysis and Fore c ast Pre dictions
 Forecast 2017

Forecast Road Maps

US Stock Market 3
Presidential Clout Trading Strategy 16
Major Markets of the World 17
US Treasury Bonds 23
Currencies 28
Metals 35
Meats 39
Softs 42
Grains 47
Energies 57
Select Stocks 61

Final Comments 67
What Else We Do 68
Disclaimer 70

IMPORTANT: The risk of loss in trading futures, options, cash currencies and
other leveraged transaction products can be substantial. Therefore only risk capital
should be used. Futures, options, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction
products are not suitable investments for everyone. The valuation of futures, op-
tions, cash currencies and other leveraged transaction products may fluctuate and
as a result clients may lose more than the amount originally invested and may also
have to pay more later. Consider your financial condition before deciding to invest
or trade.

Copyright 2016 Larry Williams CTI Publishing. All Rights Reserved.

US Stock Market

Ive been waiting 10 years to write

this report.
 Its true. I have been waiting 10 years to sit down and make my 2017 forecast
because of the amazing 7 year pattern. My first chart shows the average of all
years ending in seven. It paints a very pretty and reliable picture; 1907, 1917, 1927,
1937, 1947, 1957, 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997 and 2007.

Years Ending in 7s

Chart 1 DJIA 7 Year Pattern

The picture is clear, concise and for the last 110 years, reliable. Stock prices for some mystic
reason sell off in the late summer of these years. Based on this study I am expecting a
Trump Tumble in stocks this coming year.

In some years ending in 7, the decline has started as early as July (1947) while other years
in September, around the fall equinox. There has been no consistent pattern of exactly
when the knockout punch gets thrown or how powerful the punch will be.

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The 1987 crash greatly influences the pattern. So our next clip shows all years, except the
1987 outlier in blue, vs all years in red. Dropping out 1987 suggests the selloff begins during
the middle of July 2017.

Chart 2 DJIA 1987 Crash Influence

We may add some insight by looking at the powerful 2 year cycle pattern I have mentioned
so often in these reports.

For new readers this is simply the pattern

of a traditional de-trended cycle of 24
months. Nothing fancy here; yet it is
effective. The next chart shows the pattern.
You can judge for yourself its influence
over the last 16 years.

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 Chart 3 DJIA Two Year Cycle 2000 - 2016

For a more up close and personal look I am next showing a view of the pattern for 2017.

Chart 4 DJIA Two Year Cycle Pattern 2014 - 2017

The suggestion here is for a rally in late 2016 into a peak in May 2017, with the down move
to accelerate the first week of July - not too far off from the 7 year pattern forecast. (This
part of the report was written in August 2016 so there is no DJIA data to the end of the
year which will allow you to see how well the 2 year pattern played out in real time).

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 How Trump Trips Up Wall Street
Our New President And What It Means For Investors

The biggest news of 2016 was the election of our new president, Donald Trump. This
election is destined to have a huge impact on economic activity. The question is; will it be
good, bad or ugly?

We may be able to glean the answer by a study of whats happened in the past presidential
elections. The following charts, from my friend Dimitri Speck (based on my work) show
what has typically happened during an election year such as the one we are just wrapping
up. Source: http://www.seasonalcharts.com

Chart 5 DJIA Election Years

The usual pattern in election years has been to see lows in late May then a rally into August
(both occurred this year). Despite the Trump/Clinton campaign, the market has pretty
much followed the typical or traditional pattern seen in years the United States has elected
a President.

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That was then, and this is now. So what happens in years following the election? The answer
to that is shown in our next chart.

Chart 6 DJIA Post Election Years

Typically we see a selloff from early January into a February low then a nice rally begins
into July. What follows is a significant decline lasting into mid-November before we see a
traditional year-end rally. Based on averages from the past, that is what we should expect in
2017.

As you may have noticed Chart 6 is based on data from 1897 to 2009. You will be seeing
this chart and others similar to it as you look at the forecasts for 2017. In my view these are
not the best charts to look at - the best one is the one I am about to show you.

I say that because election years have varied greatly in the last 120 years. Some presidents
took office during the middle of the year, some later in the year. Plus, I have a resolute belief
that once the Federal Reserve took charge of the economy (about 1950) there was a massive
cycle shift.

For that reason I went back and looked at all election years from 1965 forward and here is
what that shows - an exclusive for my readers.

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 Chart 7 Years After Election

I believe that 50 year time span represents modern economics and modern politics. This is
the road map we should study. What it shows is there have been decent rallies, in the year
following an election, beginning in April. But they dont last long; by the middle of June
prices peak out and decline all the way to the Thanksgiving holiday.

I believe this will be a much more reliable presidential pattern to follow than the ones you
will see bandied about on the Internet and in other reports. This one is based on what I
think is the most significant years that should have an effect on stock prices.

I will be looking at actual price

action versus the election
year pattern. When prices
are stronger than the pattern
I will want to be aggressive
on the long side. When the
current price is weaker than
this pattern, I will want to be
aggressive on the short side.
This general road map also
suggests what we are looking
for, a mid-2017 year selloff.

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Fundamentals Still Matter

We have seen that cycles can predict things a long time in advance, but clearly they dont
do a great job of forecasting the magnitude of the move. It is my belief that the magnitude
of price moves come from the fundamental conditions at the time we arrive at a cyclical
turning point, be that up or down.

To shoot down big-game in the stock market you have to use both barrels; cycles and
fundamentals. Cycles give us the timing while fundamentals give us the potential for the
move.

There are several excellent long-term fundamental indicators that will help you judge the
integrity, strength or weakness, of the market averages. Those would include the yield curve,
P/E ratios, nonfarm payroll reports, unemployment report, and several leading indicators of
when recessions should occur. Lets take a look at a few of those.

The yield curve is the difference between interest rates on a short-term basis and longer-
term basis. It is one of the better predictive tools in the marketplace. It has done a good job
of calling in advance most stock market declines and/or recessions. When the yield curve
is flat or inverted it suggests stock prices will decline. The last time we saw this was 2007.
As they say the rest is history one of the largest declines on record. There is a reason
for this; what causes an inverted or declining curve? When smart money is frightened of
the future they demand a higher rate of return on short-term notes than on longer-term
ones. When this condition occurs, it suggests informed money is alarmed about the current
economy.

The chart below shows the current status of the yield curve.

Chart 8 Yield Curve

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What we see is a positive yield curve with an upward slant. That has in the past been
associated with bull markets. Until the yield curve begins to descend, it would be highly
unusual to see a bear market begin. You can follow this yourself on
http://www.stockcharts.com website.

The Fed Is Our Friend

As I wrote last year, if I had one and only one long-term fundamental indicator to rely on to
tell us the probabilities of entering a recession, it would most likely be the Anxious Index.

In the past whenever this index has risen above 40, we have been close to, or at, the start of
a recession. The past is prologue, while its fun to visit the past we dont want to live there.
We want to live in the future, and what we are seeing in this gauge suggests we are not
starting a recession - which is bullish for stock prices.

This index is published four times a year by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. You
can learn more about it on their web site. It is a survey of professional forecasters. So in
theory, it suggests what informed people are thinking about the future. These people are
probably smarter than you or I as their track record proves. Thats why the Federal Reserve
Bank surveys them, not us.

Chart 9 Anxious Index

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For 2016 the forecasters were predicting growth of 2.8%. We actually came in at a growth
rate of 2.5%. I pointed out in last years forecast that this growth rate of 2.8%, as forecast,
was indicating we would not have a robust economic growth. That, in part, is why the Fed
has not raised interest rates to any substantial degree and why most economic readings are
for more of a holding pattern than a straight up or down move. For this coming year, they
are predicting at an anemic growth rate of 2.2%. Unemployment, as they see it, hangs in the
4.9% zone.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis also has a recession model, shown below.

Chart 10 Federal Reserve Recession Model

A quick glance at Chart 10 shows that this Federal Reserve Bank is not expecting a
recession in the near future. Recessions occur when the index gets above 10%. We continue
holding around the 2% area. As it stands right now there is no recession in sight. I monitor
seven different recession indicators; none of them are flashing warnings at this time.

However if they do, as a reader of my 2017 forecast we will release a special bulletin,
alterting you to any changes which I think would trigger a bear market for stocks.

I think the real cause of

recessions and business
slowdowns is a lack of spending.
This can occur because
consumers are fearful or
because they have no money.
Unemployment is the best way to
see how this impacts stocks. In
a moment in the bond forecast,
we will take a look at this critical
tool.

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 2017 FORECAST
Here it is hot off the press... Our forecast for stock prices for 2017

Knowing the future is very, very difficult while seeing the past has total clarity.

With that thought in mind, here is the forecast for 2016 - in red - and how the Dow Jones
actually traded. All in all, this Natural cycle of stock prices blazed an easy to follow path.

2016 Forecast Updated

Chart 11 DJIA 2016 Natural Cycle Forecast

As good as the forecast was, it is water under the bridge. Can we do as well in 2017?

No one knows. But on balance we have been fortunate with these forecasts, and I suspect
our good fortunes will continue.

Next is the 2017 forecast.

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 Chart 12 DJIA 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

My interpretation of the road map is that we

begin a selloff shortly after the New Year starts.
This leads into a very good buy point around
the first of March. A rally should carry into the
4th of July Holiday. From there on, caution is
the word of the day. Expect a bounce in early
September. Stock prices have usually rallied at
this time following an election year.

Well have a much better idea about how bad this decline will be once we start getting
economic data during the first and middle part of 2017. If we see unemployment numbers
turning up in conjunction with rate increases, technical deterioration in the advance
decline line and other such indicators, I would look for a real shellacking to take place in
stock prices. This fits in nicely with the two-year cycle as well as the pattern of years ending
in 7.

Keep in mind that the red line is my natural cycle (which seems to work in all freely traded
markets) and is just a projection. The exact magnitude and what takes place when we get to
these projections is more determined by the news and data of the day. What we have here is
a great advance warning of when to be on high alert for stock prices in 2017.

I will be looking for my buy point in October. The suggestion is around the 23rd or 24th of
the month based on the above forecast as well as other work I do. Stock prices have almost
always rallied at this time of the year following an election.

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A Very Long Term View

For those that want an even longer term road map, below is the trail I am seeing that prices
will wander around out to 2020. This is a
very roughshod forecast and the first long
term one I have ever made. So I am treating
it as a general guideline.

Keep in mind cycles are better at the when

than the magnitude. The next great-grand
buying point comes about the start of 2019.

As we get closer we will know more as the

truth of markets unfold.

Chart 13 Long Range Projection

Before we turn our attention to the other major markets of the world, I have a strategy I
would like to share with you.

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 Presidential Clout Trading Strategy
We introduced this trading strategy in our 2015 annual forecast for the S&P E-minis. Its
based at least partially on the Presidential Cycle. Ive written about the cycle before. Im
certain you have read about in other places. Its one thing to have a conceptual idea. Its
another to make it into a specific trading strategy, which was what I tried to do back in
2015.

Through December 18, 2016 there were 27 trades, making $8,588 with 88% accuracy.

Buy Signal Rules

1. For this rule we must be in an uptrend. That means todays 200 day moving average
is greater than it was three days ago. If that condition is true, we will buy tomorrow if
tomorrow is Trading Day of the Year 21, 64, 100, 213, 220, 233, 236 or 255 and we are not
in the month of May.

2. For this rule we require today to be an outside day. Thats a day with a higher high and
lower low than the prior days high and low. The outside day must close less than the prior
days low and the prior days low must have closed less than the low of the day before that.
Take this trade on all days but Monday. The entry is to buy tomorrow on the open.

3. This is an October trade. If it is October and tomorrow is the 3rd trading day left in
October, we will buy on the opening tomorrow.

4. This is a November trade. We will buy on the opening tomorrow if it is a Tuesday and the
trading day of the month is less than six.

5. Here is another trend filtered rule. If the 200 day moving average is greater than three
days ago, today was not an outside bar with an up close, tomorrow is not Friday or Tuesday,
and the trading day of the month is not trading day four or seven... we then buy on the
opening tomorrow if it is the 2nd, 10th, 12th, 19th, 22nd or 23rd trading day left in the
month.

Sell Signal Rule

It is not August. The calendar day of the month is not 16. Today is the ninth trading day left
in the month and tomorrow is not a Monday, Tuesday or Thursday. If all those conditions
exist, sell short tomorrow on the open.

The exit rule is to exit on the first profitable opening or a $3,000 stop if long or $1,600
stop if short. US Federal Holidays do not count as trading days. Use the electronic trading
session opening.
Page 16
Stock Indexes
DAX-Germany

Chart 14 Germany 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

It looks like stocks in Germany will pretty much follow the pattern of stocks in America.
There should be a buy point in early March, a significant selloff starting in June, perhaps a
double top the middle of July, and then a decline that should last until early October.

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Australia

Chart 15 Australia 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Im still not wildly pleased with my 2016 forecast of the Australian stock market, but we
do have more data this year which helps make these forecasts. The suggestion is, just as in
Germany, a buy point in March. There is another one in the middle of June but then we go
into what looks like a choppy trading range affair. The most significant selling point should
be the first of May.

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Japan

Chart 16 Japan 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Stocks in Japan should rally into the middle of July. Then I would expect a significant
decline. I have marked off, with the light blue vertical lines, the suggested buying points.
The best buying opportunity of the year should be early March and then again late
September.

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Russia

Chart 17 Russia 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

It looks like stocks in Russia will also get tagged in May and continue declining until
October. I expect a bear trend here for the entire year once we get past the February to May
rally.

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China

Chart 18 China 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

In China we have a similar problem to Australia Id like to have more data to make these
projections. Nonetheless, we see an evolving uptrend until July and then prices come right
back down again. This pattern is greatly influenced by the decline one year ago in China. So
I would not pay a great deal of attention to the magnitude that you see here. Pay attention
more to the turning points.

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Interest Rates and
The Bond Market
Interest Rates And The Bond Market
Gross Federal Debt appears to have been driven higher by mandatory payments. We have
now reached the point where Debt is greater than our GDP! This ratio has surpassed 100%
in each of the past five years.

Chart 19 Gross Fed Debt

The Negative Spin Off Of Debt

The presumption of policy makers is that more deficit spending and debt is needed to
address economic underperformance. There are negative consequences to these good
intentions; this economic thinking unwittingly causes an even faster rate of economic
deterioration. Let me prove that point.

As the government piles on debt to support household income, consumers believe that
saving for retirement or contingency is not important because the government promises to

Page 24
fund our income and medical problems. That causes a drop in savings, or as Shakespeare
said, Necessity is the mother of invention and necessity must be obeyed. Since savings
from income must equal real investment, the latter drops. With real investment weaker,
productivity, profitability and economic growth follow suit.

Debt reduces savings, a reduction in savings cuts back investments

a cut back in investments is a cut back in jobs and growth.

A quick turn of our attention to Japan proves the point. In Japan household gross saving
rate fell from THE WORLDS highest at 26.6% in 1989 to 6.6% in 2015. Productivity
growth averaged 3.2% from the start of the data in the early 1980s through 1991, and
dropped to 0.5% in the latest 10-year period.

Japan reached the 90% government debt-to-GDP ratio in 1999 and has exceeded that level
every year since then. The rest is history; Japan has floundered and we seem to be repeating
that history in the USA.

The economic malaise of Japan helped produce the following chart.

Chart 20 Japan Annual Births

With fewer births, labor force entries declined. Of course, so does employment, which
means slower economic growth.

With that in mind lets take a look at the same data for the USA.

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We see the same truths to be self-evident; birth rates in the United States have dropped
precipitously, most likely driven at least in part by the decline in economic growth. A
point to consider is that immigrants to America have a much higher birth rate than non-
immigrants. At some point, should the trend of immigration continue, these two lines are
going to cross.

Chart 21 US Birth Rate

Debt is good the Fed says. But, too much of anything is not good thats where we are as we
enter 2017. In the latest tally of federal debt we saw an increase by $2.2 trillion while GDP
gained only 450 billion. Debt is at an all-time high relative to GDP. Any hike in interest
rates by the Federal Reserve will only serve to lower GDP which is already staggering from
a Mike Tyson like punch from massive debt. Unless the Federal Reserve is destined to
destroy productivity, and I dont think they are, interest rates will remain stable in 2017.

Do you now see how this all comes together to produce a lackluster economy? This trend is
- for the foreseeable future - irreversible.

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What Does This Mean For Investors?

With slowing nominal economic growth, I can see only one course of action for the
Fed; rates will stay low and probably go lower. The bond bull market is not over.

Chart 22 Treasury Bonds 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

We can cut through all the economic gibberish with our study of cycles. They may be
wrong, but they will be clearly wrong while economics is always unclear, right or wrong!

The suggestion is that bond

prices selloff at the first of the
year, rally into March with a
pull back into a low in early
May... then starts the 2017
bull market in bonds.

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Currencies
 2017 Currencies
Lets march through the major currencies of the world in alphabetical order, starting with
the Australian Dollar and ending up with United States Dollar. Typically in the past, most
currencies have performed just the opposite of the US dollar. This year it looks like some
will be in sync and some will be out of sync. Notably the United States Dollar should be
declining most of the year, as youll see in a moment.

Australian Dollar

Chart 23 Australian Dollar 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

The Australian Dollar looks like a trading

range affair with a downward bias until
late April 2017. At that time I would
expect a spirited rally to take place in the
currency of Kangaroos.

Page 29
British Pound

Chart 24 British Pound 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

For sure England has

survived BREXIT and the
cyclical expectation is March
will kick off a rally, a rally at
that time which should last
all the way until the middle
of September. Well definitely
want to be playing the long
side of this market at that
time.

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Canadian Dollar

Chart 25 Canadian Dollar 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

The Canadian Dollar typically moves

in unison with the price of Crude Oil.
Not certain that will happen this year,
but you should compare this pattern
with the forecast for crude oil.

The expectation for the Looney is that

it sells off at the first of the year then
expect a buy signal the first week of
March, giving away to the best rally of
the year lasting until May. After that
we decline into a sideways market.

The best use of these road maps is

a show of when to expect cyclical
turning points as Ive marked off for you.

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European Currency

Chart 26 Euro Currency 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Across the pond in Europe I would expect

a bullish market starting in late February or
early March, lasting all the way to December.

The idea here would be to buy pullbacks and

oversold conditions in this market as they
develop. The expectation is for a bull market
in the European currency.

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Japanese Yen

Chart 27 Japanese Yen 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

The economy of Japan appears to still be floundering. The forecast for the Yen is suggesting
the same; a further
deterioration in the
yen until August
2017. After that
we should expect a
very good rally in
this market almost
through the end of
the year. The bottom
line is weakness in
the first of the year,
strength in the latter
part of the year.

Page 33
Dollar Index

Chart 28 Dollar Index 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Last but not least comes to US dollar index.

Typically this market rallies at the beginning

of every year. That has been the seasonal
pattern.

Our natural cycle forecast suggests this rally

can last until the first week of March after
that Its a new ball game. I would expect
lower prices the rest of the year.

At some point there will be an attack on the

US dollar relative to other currencies. Coupled with the fact that a high US dollar will drive
down US exports, caution is needed after the peak suggested in March.

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Precious Metals
 Metals
Its surprising how strong the
seasonal influence is for metal
markets. You would almost think
they are harvested like wheat and
soybeans.

This seasonal pattern, I believe,

is caused not only by buying and
selling jewelry for Christmas (with
buying in August) but also for
industrial usage.

Gold

Chart 29 Gold 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

My forecast for gold says we should rally into the end of February, then have a gentle
downward drift until the middle of April. A seasonal trend kicks in then, giving us a strong
rally until the end of November.

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Silver

Chart 30 Silver 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

It looks like Silver will be more volatile than gold and perhaps have more of a trading range.
Significant selling points should be at the end of February, the first of June, and the middle
of October. Ive marked the buy points off for you.

Copper

Chart 31 Copper 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

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Copper appears to be more in step with stock prices than gold or silver. It looks like the
best rally opportunity of the year should be from the middle February until the middle of
April. Then its down, setting up a buy point the first week of July. That buy should last until
August, when we then turn back to the downside.

Platinum
Platinum bulls should be happy until the middle of May or early June. Then I would expect
prices to move sideways if not to the downside. More importantly, I suggest you pay
attention to the turning points to help you navigate the ebb and fall of platinum.

In late May I would expect there will be a great deal of bullishness, just dont get carried
away with it.

Chart 32 Platinum 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

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Meats
 Meats
Oh how I miss trading pork bellies! They were one of the most seasonal of all markets. Now
were just left with hogs and cattle.

Lean Hogs

Chart 33 Lean Hogs 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

The projection for the

hog market is a trading
range affair until the
middle of April. Then we
go down until the end of
August. Typically hogs
rally in August. So we have
confirmation from not
only the seasonal pattern,
but also my natural cycle
forecasts a rally to start in
early August that carries
through to the end of the
year.

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Cattle

Chart 34 Cattle 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Cattlemen cried all year long in 2016 about sharply lower prices, and the ones I talk with
are worried to death about 2017. I tell them not to worry. The Make America Great Again
crowd are steak eaters. Expect a strong bull market from March into July as well as a
premium price structure once December goes off the board. If this premium continues we
could get a commercial bull market in cattle. So pay attention to this market.

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Softs
Cocoa

Chart 35 Cocoa 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

The suggestion here is that chocolate bars should get cheaper in 2017. Expect a seasonal
high in February, then lower prices until June at which point a bull market could carry the
rest of the year.

Sugar

Chart 36 Sugar 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Page 43
My projections for sugar call for this market to continue to the downside until early
October of 2017. Then we should see a violent rally to the upside lasting the rest of the year.

Coffee

Chart 37 Coffee 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Coffee appears to give us another year of large trading range activity. We will want to buy
the big dips and sell the big rallies.

Hopefully my natural cycle forecast has

spotted the turns, long in advance, as
marked off above.

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Cotton

Chart 38 Cotton 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

I havent traded cotton for years. But I will be looking at it in 2017 because it appears a
good rally should start
in early March. That
rally should last all
the way to July. This
is a thin market . So
treat it carefully. When
it goes, it can really
skyrocket. After the
end of June I would
expect a choppy back
and forth market,
leading to a decline
into the end of the
year.

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Lumber

Chart 39 Lumber 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

No one seems to pay attention to Lumber these days. Yet it is tradable and has strong
seasonal and cyclical
swings. Above all, prices
of this market have been a
good leading indication
of the bond market.
The message for 2017 is
to look for a bullish
bias with a June sell off
and even stronger slide
starting in late August or
early September.

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Grains
 Gains In The Grains For 2017?
As long-term followers of my work know we have learned to place a great deal of
importance on the decennial or 10 year cyclical pattern for not only stock prices
but also grain markets. There is some indication the same cycle is alive, well and
working, in treasury bonds too.

The following chart shows the average of all years ending in six versus soybean meal for
2016. It wasnt a bad forecast!

Chart 40 Soybean Meal Years Ending in 6

Next lets take a look at the same 6 cyclical forecast for soybeans.

Page 48
 Chart 41 SoybeansYears Ending in 6

And finally lets take a look at the same pattern for wheat.

Chart 42 Wheat Years Ending in 6

Okay, weve established that there appears to be a relationship between the decennial cycle
pattern and grain prices. The next question of course is whats in store for 2017? Thats why
you pay for my annual forecast report - to get the facts.

Page 49
Here they are. The next five charts show the decennial pattern for corn, soybeans, soybean
meal, soybean oil, and wheat for this coming year. These are certainly guidelines traders
will want to pay attention to.

Corn

Chart 43 Corn Years Ending in 7

Soybeans

Chart 44 Soybeans Years Ending in 7

Page 50
Soybean Meal

Chart 45 Soybean Meal Years Ending in 7

Soybean Oil

Chart 46 Soybean Oil Years Ending in 7

Page 51
Wheat

Chart 47 Wheat Years Ending in 7

With that behind us lets take a look at my more specific natural cycle forecast for the
grains. While the seven-year patterns look at a specific set of years, the natural cycle
forecast is based on finding years that fit similar patterns to the year we have just gone
through. Then it uses the years following that to come up with the forecast. Heres what that
study shows is in store for 2017.

Chart 48 Wheat 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

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The suggestion here is that we should have a decent rally starting in late February.
That leads up to a May top. The expected decline could last until September but then
a substantial up move should begin. Note this also fits in quite well with the 10 year
decennial pattern. Traders will want to pay a lot of attention to the Commitment of Traders
Report starting in August to see if the Commercials are accumulating long positions. If
they are, that should represent one of the best trades of the year for wheat.

Corn

Chart 49 Corn 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

The pattern is not dissimilar from what we are expecting for Wheat. We should see choppy
action with an upside bias until June, then a significant selloff that sets up a very powerful
buying opportunity in September.

The decennial pattern suggests the low point comes in the middle of August. So, just like
wheat, we will want to focus attention on the Commitment of Traders Report. Also notice
both forecasts suggest a selloff starting in May and June.

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Soybeans

Chart 50 Soybeans 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

In the case of soybeans,

we should be looking
for a buying opportunity
the first part of March
for a strong rally that
goes into June. Then that
gives way to a significant
decline. The decline
should end with a nice
rally starting the latter
part of September.

The 10 year decennial

pattern suggests a rally
might start a little earlier.

The point is, we want to

be looking for a large commercial long position and trend changes in soybeans at this time.

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Soybean Meal

Chart 51 Soybean Meal 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Theres a conflict between the natural cycle forecast for soybean meal and the decennial
pattern. They both agree we should see a selloff in the May/June time. They agree on a
rally starting in October. But as you can see from studying the charts, they disagree on the
potential magnitude for these moves.

This is where it is important to keep in mind that all a cycle can forecast is when turning
point should occur - they do not do an excellent job of telling us how big or small that
move will be. Thats why when we get to these turning points we want to look at exogenous
data (such as the Commitment of Traders Report, valuation, accumulation and one could
add seasonal influences) to help us understand what should happen when we get to these
turning points.

My inclination is to trust the natural cycle. My experience shows the most important thing
is to watch price relative to these two patterns to see which one, this year, it is following. In
other words, let the market tell us which one to pay attention to.

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Soybean Oil

Chart 52 Soybean Oil 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Again I will be looking for a rally in

March into mid-May. That should be the
best buying opportunity for soybean oil
this coming year.

I expect a dip from mid-May to mid-

June, setting up another buy point with
a market top around the first week of
August.

The decline that sets up should last until the first week of October.

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Energies 2017
Love may make the world go around but without the energy markets, the world will
stop spinning. Nothing has become more critical to society than hydrocarbons, and it
appears a Trump administration will be taking an expansive view towards exploration and
production.

There are more people employed in the production of solar and wind energy than coal
and oil. That is a staggering thought. Clearly more energy is produced per person in the
hydrocarbon business than alternative energy.

Perhaps thats why our natural cycle forecast is for a brief dip in the first part of 2017 then a
strong rally into August.

Crude Oil

Chart 53 Crude Oil 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Expect Crude Oil to put in a bottom in late February that kicks off a rally into early June.
Then our forecast suggests a dip into the first of July and rally into the first of August that
may well be the high for the year. Interesting how close this follows our stock market
forecast for 2017.

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Heating Oil

Chart 54 Heating Oil 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Of course heating oil moves pretty

much like crude oil. But this year the
suggestion is heating oil may top first,
somewhere in the middle of June. From
that point on prices should move to the
downside.

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Natural Gas

Chart 55 Natural Gas 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Natural gas has been in pretty much

a perpetual bear market. If that is to
change it would take place in early
September 2017. It looks like a trading
range until then.

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Select Stocks
General Electric GE

Chart 56 General Electric 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Apple AAPL

Chart 57 Apple 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

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Altria MO

Chart 58 Altria 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

IBM

Chart 59 IBM 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

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Home Depot HD

Chart 60 Home Depot 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Cocoa-Cola KO

Chart 61 Coca-Cola 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

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General Mills GIS

Chart 62 General Mills 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Microsoft MSFT

Chart 63 Microsoft 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

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Exxon XOM

Chart 64 Exxon 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

Walmart WMT

Chart 65 Walmart 2017 Natural Cycle Forecast

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 Final Comments

I hope youve enjoyed this years presentation of my forecasts. We have developed a very
loyal following over the years. Heres a great big THANK YOU to my longtime readers, and
WELCOME to the family for those of you who are new to my forecasts. Most people think
its virtually impossible to forecast the future with any degree of accuracy my longtime
readers know weve had some absolutely spot on calls with these forecasts.

A recent example was while most investors and traders were blown out by the BREXIT
mini crash this year our road map called for a low on 6/30... we were ready for one of the
best buy points of the year!

They are not always going to be 100% accurate. Dont expect that. We have hit the bulls eye
often enough that we know we get a much better glimpse of the future than anyone else in
this business.

Please keep in mind your purchase of this forecast includes any major stock market buy
and sell signals I will get this coming year based on my recession indicators. At this time I
do not see any sell signals in the offering, but one never knows.

Sometimes in the past Ive done a midyear report for which we charge as it is lengthy and
takes a great deal of my time. Sometimes we just do a mini bulletin for which there is no
charge. There are absolutely no promises on what I will do this coming year. We will stay in
touch with you, of course.

A special thanks to Louise Stapleton who edits, formats and publishes this work. Without
her my work would never see the light of day. Also thanks to Chad Noble for the ability to
take my ideas and turn them into the reality of forecasts.

Best Wishes For 2017,

Larry Williams
LnL Publishing, LLC
St Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands

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 What Else We Do
I hope you have enjoyed our 2017 forecast report. If youre not aware of the other market
services we offer let me introduce them to you.

Larry TV
This is my weekly video market commentary where I point out immediate trading
opportunities, discuss why these markets are set up, as well as give potential entry points
with stops and targets. This is more than just a buy/sell recommendation service. I also
teach what makes markets move as well as timing techniques. If you are an active trader
this is the most valuable service we offer. https://www.ireallytrade.com/larrytv/

Mechanical Trading Strategies

We offer two mechanical trading strategies at TradeStation for those who would like to
trade the S&P E-minis or bonds. These can be set up to trade automatically, or of course
you can monitor the strategy and choose to take/not take each signal.

Heres the equity curve of the E-mini trading system. This strategy has been available in
TradeStation for 3 years now.

Since January1, 2016 we have had 30 trades, 76.6% were profitable with a net profit of
$16,087. Pretty good results; which explains why trade this with our own money right along
with you.
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We also offer a bond mechanical trading strategy heres the equity curve.

Since January 1, 2016 the strategy has had 30 trades with a net profit of $14,030, and just
like with the E-mini system we trade this with our own money. I think I am the only
mechanical strategy guy who trades his own systems with his own money.

If youd like more information about either of these strategies and are a TradeStation user
go to their app store for more information:

https://tradestation.tradingappstore.com/products/LarryWilliamsSPE-MiniStrategy
https://tradestation.tradingappstore.com/products/LarryWilliamsBondStrategy

These strategies are also available at Robbins brokerage firm where they will trade the
strategies on your behalf. Contact us for more information.

Online Courses

Finally, for those of you who want to learn how to be an independent trader, we have our
online courses. You can get started with my introductory course, Cracking the Money
Code: https://www.ireallytrade.com/crackingthecode.htm

Of course, you can find all we offer by simply going to https://www.ireallytrade.com

Page 69
 Disclaimer

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKE-

LY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN
THIS DOCUMENT, SUPPORT AND TEXTS. OUR COURSE(S), PRODUCTS AND
SERVICES SHOULD BE USED AS LEARNING AIDS. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST
REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS ARE YOUR OWN. OUR TRACK RECORD
IS FROM TRADES GIVEN TO SUBSCRIBERS IN ADVANCE AND ARE NOT HIND-
SIGHT. THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE
IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIM-
ITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS
DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS
ARE SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT
OF HINDSIGHT. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITIES CAN BE SUB-
STANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH
TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS

HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD,
SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE
THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-
OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET
FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN
GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH
THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY
ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO
THOSE SHOWN.

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