A Climate Trend Analysis of Addis Ababa (Ethiopias Sprawling

Capital)
1.Introduction
Climate related risks due to increased variations in climate and weather associated with extreme
events have emerged as a key natural hazard of the 21st Century (IPCC, 2013).
Recent research shows that climate change will increase the pace of the global hydrologic cycle with
accompanied rise in temperature, variability and changes in precipitation patterns (Saloua, 2012). Sub-
Saharan countries are among those most threatened by water stress, in view of the likelihood of
extreme variability, seasonality, and decreasing stream-flows that are predicted to occur in the coming
decades (Saloua, 2012). Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa is the dominant climate risk; it destroys the
livelihoods of farming and pastoral communities and shatters their food security, whilst it also has a
significant negative effect on GDP (UN, 2012) . On the other hand, floods impact on infrastructure,
transportation, goods and service flows as well as clean water supplies and health negatively (FDRE,
2011). Addis Ababa is one of these fast-growing sub-mega cities in recent times (AAPCO, 2014). As the
administrative seat and political capital of Ethiopia, the city attracts the highest number of migrants
from other parts of the country (ORAAMP, 2010).
2.About Addis Ababa -
Addis Ababa is home to 25% of the urban population in Ethiopia and is one of the fastest growing cities
in Africa (AAPCO, 2014).It is the growth engine for Ethiopia and a major pillar in the countrys vision to
become a middle-income, carbon-neutral, and resilient economy by 2025. Addis Ababas economy is
growing annually by 14%. The city alone currently contributes approximately 50% towards the national
GDP. Despite the strong economic growth trends, Addis Ababa faces significant development
challenges. For example, unemployment and poverty levels in Addis Ababa remain high, estimated at
23.5% and 22% respectively. The local government is also struggling to deliver basic services to all its
residents, providing clean water to only 44% of the population and sewerage services to less than 30%.
(World Bank, 2015)

Figure 1 About Addis Ababa Source: (World Bank, 2015)

 Addis is expanding in a sprawling
manner, with growth in urban extent
outpacing population growth (See
Figure 2). The result of this growth is an
estimated 46% vacant or underutilized
land. At the same time, the city centre
has extremely high density (up
to 30,000 people per km2),
concentrating around 30% of the
population on 8% of the land, generally
with poor living conditions (ASSAR,
2015).With an increasing built up area,
the city is experiencing a decrease in
the critical functions of its ecosystem
services. Massive and rapid
urbanization increasingly demands
Figure 2 Built Up Area Expansion from 1973-2010 Source:
more water, energy, food, land and
housing, causing rapid land cover change and alterations in biochemical cycles and hydro systems, loss
of biodiversity and soil degradation. More importantly, the downward trend in Addis Ababas
ecosystems significantly weakens the resilience to stress and shocks of the whole urban system and
worsens the likely impacts of climate change related hazards on the city.

2.1 Risks and Impacts

a) Flooding - Flooding Addis Ababa is exposed to both riverine and flash floods due to river overflow
caused by extreme rainfall events and upper catchment
activities, such as land-use management or scarce
watershed planning. Climate change projections show
that flood risk will increase in the future due to more
frequent extreme rainfalls. Vulnerability to flooding is
intimately linked with residential development
encroaching on riverbanks, non-permanent
construction materials (i.e. mud and wood), and poor
drainage systems along roadways (World Bank, 2015).
Apart from human and material losses, flooding can Figure 3 Annual Probability of Flooding and
also trigger outbreaks of diseases such as malaria, Earthquake in Africa Source- (UNFCC, 2015)
dengue fever and water-borne diseases such as cholera
and dysentery.

b) Earthquake - Addis Ababa is only 75-100 km away from the western edge of the Main Ethiopian Rift
Valley. (World Bank, 2015).Numerous earthquakes of
varying magnitude have occurred over the years, some
of which have impacted the city. While the likelihood
of a substantial earthquake in the future is not known,
the impact of an earthquake could be devastating.
c) Drought-
d) Landslides-
e) Water Stress-
 2.1. Carbon Emissions:

Addis Ababas 2012 BASIC+ emissions total is 4.89

MtCo2e or roughly 1.6 tCo2e per capita. Emissions
from transportation, residential buildings and waste make
up the largest share. They contribute about 28%,
47% and 13%respectively of Addis Ababas total emissions.
Stationary energy, waste and in-boundary on-road
transportation have highest GHG mitigation potentials.
Kerosene and biomass fuels are the main sources of
residential GHG emissions. Out of the 1.71 MtCo2e
emissions from stationary energy sources, almost 75% is
from the combustion of kerosene and 12% from wood and
charcoal. (FDRE,Fedreal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2012)
Figure 4 This GHG inventory covers Co2 , Methane CH4 and
nitrous oxide emissions. Source: (FDRE,Fedreal Democratic Republic
3. Climate Change Trends & Analysis of Ethiopia, 2012)
Studies on both present climate variability and future climate
change impacts-vulnerability and adaptation have predominantly been derived from Global Circulation
model (GCM) outputs (Randall et al., 2007). However, the future climate depends upon several factors
including anthropogenic activities. As a result, defining the possible pathways of different climate
components dictated by their interactions under the influence of internal and assumed external factors
(e.g., internal natural and external anthropogenic factors) are important for making future projections.

A climate projection is usually a statement about the likelihood that something will happen
several decades to centuries in the future if certain influential conditions develop. Scenarios
however, are not projections or predictions, but rather represent alternative, possible ways in
which the future may unfold.

3.1 Definitions

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP):

RCPs are time and space dependent trajectories of concentrations of greenhouse gases and
pollutants resulting from human activities, including changes in land use. RCPs provide a quantitative
description of concentrations of the climate change pollutants in the atmosphere over time, as well
as their radiative forcing in 2100 . The word representative signifies that each RCP provides only
one of many possible scenarios that would lead to the specific radiative forcing pathway. Radiative
forcing is a measure of the additional energy taken up by the Earth system due to increases in
climate change pollution. [IPCC AR5]
3.2 Climate Dynamics:

3.2.1 Temperature

Current (based on historical climate conditions and recent trends, generally over the past few
decades)

Ethiopias climate is typically tropical in the southeastern and northeastern lowland regions, but
much cooler in the large central highland regions of the country. Mean annual temperatures are
RCP 8.5 High Emissions RCP 6.0 Moderate Emissions
This future is consistent with:
Three times todays CO2 emissions by 2100 This future is consistent with:
Rapid increase in methane emissions CO2 emissions peak in 2060 at 75 per cent
Increased use of croplands and grassland above todays levels, then decline to 25 per
which is driven by an increase in population cent above today
A world population of 12 billion by 2100 Stable methane emissions
Lower rate of technology development Increasing use of croplands and declining use
Heavy reliance on fossil fuels of grasslands
High energy intensity Heavy reliance on fossil fuels
No implementation of climate policies Intermediate energy intensity
RCP 4.5 Intermediate Emissions RCP 2.0 Low Emissions
This future would require:
This future is consistent with: Declining use of oil
Lower energy intensity Low energy intensity
Strong reforestation programmes A world population of 9 billion by year 2100
Decreasing use of croplands and grasslands Use of croplands increase due to bio-energy
due to yield increases and dietary changes production
Stringent climate policies More intensive animal husbandry
Stable methane emissions Methane emissions reduced by 40 per cent
CO2 emissions increase only slightly before CO2 emissions stay at todays level until 2020,
decline commences around 2040 then decline and become negative in 2100
CO2 concentrations peak around 2050,
followed by a modest decline to around 400
ppm by 2100
around 1520C in these high-altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the lowlands. Mean annual
temperature has increased by 1.3C between 1960 and 2006, an average rate of 0.28C per decade.
The increase in temperature in Ethiopia has been most rapid July through September at a rate of
0.32C per decade. Available data indicates that the average number of "hot" nights (the hottest
10% of nights annually) increased by 137 per year between 1960 and 2003, and "hot" days per year
increased by 73 [UNDP]

Future: 2030 (generally 2020-2049) The mean annual temperature in the country is projected to
increase by 0.44C, 0.92C, and 1.4C by 2030 for the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles for the RCP4.5
model ensemble runs, and by 0.61C, 1.01C, 1.47C for the RCP8.5 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile
model ensembles, respectively. Maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 0.93C to
0.98C, and minimum temperatures by 0.93C and 1.05C for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 median model
 ensemble. Simple linear interpolation of projections indicates that annually, "hot" days will occur on
12-25% of days by the 2030s [UNDP].

IPCC projections for East Africa include warming of 0.2C (low scenario) to more than 0.5C (high
scenario), 520% increase in precipitation from December-February (wet months) and 510%
decrease in precipitation from June-August (dry months) (IPCC, 2014).

Climate projections generated by UNDP (cited in DFID, 2009) for Ethiopia highlight the likelihood
of mean temperature increases of 1C in 2020s and up to 3.9C to 2080s.

Using a multi-model dataset, the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia indicates that the
mean annual temperature is likely to rise significantly when compared with the 196190 level by a
maximum of 1.1oC by 2030, 2.1oC by 2050 and 3.4oC by 2080 (Weldegebriel and Prowse, 2013).

3.2.2 Precipitation

Current (based on historical climate conditions and recent trends, generally over the past few
decades)

Seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia is driven mainly by the migration of the InterTropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ). Most of Ethiopia experiences one main wet season (called Kiremt) from midJune to
midSeptember (up to 350mm per month in the wettest regions), when the ITCZ is at its northern
most position. Parts of northern and central Ethiopia also have a secondary wet season of sporadic,
and considerably lesser, rainfall from February to May (called the Belg). The southern regions of
Ethiopia experience two distinct wet seasons which occur as the ITCZ passes through this more
southern position. The March to May Belg season is the main rainfall season yielding 100200mm
per month, followed by a lesser rainfall season in October to December called Bega (around
100mm per month). The eastern most corner of Ethiopia receives very little rainfall at any time of
year. The strong interannual and interdecadal variability in Ethiopias rainfall makes it difficult to
detect longterm trends. There is not a statistically significant trend in observed mean rainfall in any
season in Ethiopia between 1960 and 2006. Decreases in July-September rainfall observed in the
1980s have shown recovery in the 1990s and 2000s. There are insufficient daily rainfall records
available to identify trends in daily rainfall variability. (UNDP, 2012) [UNDP] Large-scale floods occur
mostly in the lowland areas, while flash floods resulting from intense rainfall events occur mostly in
the Highlands. The capital city of Addis Ababa experiences annual flood events, which destroy
property and pose a significant threat to urban dwellers [CCKP] (IPCC, 2014) (CCKP, n.d.).
Future: 2030 (generally 2020-2049)

Projections of mean annual rainfall averaged over the country from different models in the
ensemble project a wide range of changes in precipitation for Ethiopia, but tend toward increases.
By 2030, the RCP4.5 10th percentile (-23%), median (0.6%), and 90th percentile (28%) ensembles for
mean annual precipitation indicate high uncertainty in the direction and amount of change across
the models. These results are similar to RCP8.5 (22%, 3.3%, and 33%). [CCKP]. The median ensemble
runs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 indicate an average annual rainfall increase of 0.1 to 0.2 mm/day by the
middle of the 2030s [USGS]. However, several studies have stressed the disagreement between
global climate models in representing rainfall amounts over east African highlands, and topographic
influences on models are not well understood.

4. Utility of Climate Model Information:

The use of climate model data from general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models
(RCMs) for both seasonal near-term forecasting and more medium-term decision making and planning
has increased in recent decades across the region. However, based on work in Ethiopia, Conway and
Schipper (2011) found that even where rainfall model convergence is apparent, current trends and
physical interpretations on the ground often counter IPCC multimodel projections. GCM uncertainties
remain a barrier to prioritization of
climate change adaptation by decision
makers, and improvements are needed
in how uncertainties in projections are Figure 5Time series of precipitation change relative to 19862005
averaged over land grid points in East Africa in October to March and
articulated and approaches should be April to September. Source: IPCC (2013).
guided more by management objectives.
There remains a shortage of accurate
regional climate model (RCMs) data and
lack of capacity to interpret inherent
uncertainties within climate model
outputs. Deficiencies include the lack of
good quality and timely dissemination of
data to the local level; the ineffective
packaging, explanation and translation of
climate information; and the lack of
analysis of climate data to produce
forecasts and scenarios, especially at the
local level. (USAID, 2015)

5. Conclusion :

References
AAPCO, A. A. (2014). Addis Ababa Land use Development Plan. Addis Ababa: AAPCO.

ASSAR. (2015). Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Semi-Arid Areas in East Africa.
Addis Ababa: ASSAR PMU.

CCKP. (n.d.). World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

FDRE, F. D. (2011). Climate-Resilient, Green Economy Green economy strategy. Addis Ababa: Federal
Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

FDRE,Fedreal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. (2012). Addis Ababa Greenhouse Gas Emission
Inventory. Addis Ababa: FDRE.

IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.Chapter 22 (Africa); IPCC
WG1AR5, Ch. 13: IPCC Working Group 1, Assessment Report 5,. IPCC.

IPCC, S. T.-K. (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University.

ORAAMP, (. o. (2010). Addis Ababa Master Plan 2001 2010, Executive Summary. Addis Ababa:
Addis Ababa City Administration.

Saloua, R. B. (2012). Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rheraya Watershed
(Morocco), with Potential Adaptation Strategies. Water ISSN 2073-4441.

UN. (2012). World Water Report; Managing Water under Uncertainty and Risk; Volume 1;. Paris:
Published by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.

UNDP. (2012). UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles : Ethiopia. Addis Ababa: UNDP.

UNFCC. (2015). Ethiopia's Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change . Addis Ababa: UNFCC.

USAID. (2015). Climate Change Information Fact Sheet. Ethiopia: USAID.

World Bank. (2015). Enhancing Urban Resilience : Addis Ababa. Addis Ababa: World Bank Group.