Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Mortality
UN Inter-agency Group for
Child Mortality Estimation
United
Nations
This report was prepared at UNICEF Headquarters by Danzhen You, Phillip Bastian, Jingxian Wu and Tessa Wardlaw on behalf
of the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Population Division
Guiomar Bay, Tim Miller, Dirk Jaspers Faijer
Special thanks to the Technical Advisory Group of the Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation for providing
technical guidance on methods for child mortality estimation
Further thanks go to Jin Rou New and Fengqing Chao from the National University of Singapore for their assistance in pre-
paring the UN IGME estimates. Thanks also go to David Anthony, Ivana Bjelic, Liliana Carvajal, Yadigar Coskun, Archana
Dwivedi, Attila Hancioglu, Priscilla Idele, Claes Johansson, Rolf Luyendijk, Colleen Murray, Holly Newby, Tyler Porth, Tur-
gay Unalan, Daniel Vadnais and Upasana Young from UNICEF as well as Joy Lawn from the London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine for their support. And special thanks to Khin Wityee Oo from UNICEF for proofreading. Special thanks to
UNAIDS for sharing estimates on AIDS mortality.
Communications Development Incorporated provided overall design direction, editing and layout.
Copyright 2013
by the United Nations Childrens Fund
The Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) constitutes representatives of the United Nations Chil-
drens Fund, the World Health Organization, the World Bank and the United Nations Population Division. The child mortality
estimates presented in this report have been reviewed by UN IGME members. As new information becomes available, estimates
will be updated by the UN IGME. Differences between the estimates presented in this report and those in forthcoming publica-
tions by UN IGME members may arise because of differences in reporting periods or in the availability of data during the pro-
duction process of each publication and other evidence.
The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion
whatsoever on the part of UNICEF, the World Health Organization, the World Bank or the United Nations Population Division
concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its fron-
tiers or boundaries. Dotted lines on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.
Overall, substantial progress has been made Sub-Saharan Africa, however, has seen a
towards achieving MDG4. The number of faster decline in its under-five mortality rate
under-five deaths worldwide has declined over time, with the average annual rate of
from 12.6 (12.4, 12.9)1 million in 1990 to 6.6 reduction increasing from 0.8percent in
(6.3, 7.0) million in 2012. While that trans- 19901995 to 4.1percent in 20052012.
lates into around 17,000 fewer children dying
every day in 2012 than in 1990, it still implies About half of under-five deaths occur in only
the deaths of nearly 18,000 children under five countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic
age five every day in 2012. Republic of the Congo, Pakistan and China.
India (22percent) and Nigeria (13percent)
Since 1990 the global under-five mortality together account for more than a third of all
rate has dropped 47percentfrom 90 (89, under-five deaths.
92) deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 48
(46, 51) in 2012. All regions, except for Sub- The proportion of under-five deaths that
Saharan Africa and Oceania, have reduced occur within the first month of life (the neo-
their under-five mortality rate by 50percent natal period) has increased 19percent
or more.2 since 1990, from 37percent to 44percent,
because declines in the neonatal mortality
The average annual rate of reduction in rate are slower than those in the mortality
under-five mortality has accelerated rate for older children.
from 1.2percent a year over 19901995 to
3.9percent over 20052012but remains Around two-thirds of neonatal deaths occur
insufficient to reach MDG4, particularly in in just 10 countries, with India accounting for
Oceania, Sub-Saharan Africa, Caucasus and more than a quarter and Nigeria for a tenth.
Central Asia, and Southern Asia.
Sub-Saharan Africa, with the highest risk of
The highest rates of child mortality are still death in the first month of life, is among the
in Sub-Saharan Africa, with an under-five regions showing the least progress in reduc-
mortality rate of 98 deaths per 1,000 live ing the neonatal mortality rate.
birthsmore than 15 times the average for
developed regions. The leading causes of death among children
under age five include pneumonia (17per-
Under-five deaths are increasingly concen- cent of all under-five deaths), preterm birth
trated in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern complications (15percent), intrapartum-
Asia, while the share in the rest of the world related complications (complications during
dropped from 32percent in 1990 to 18per- birth; 10percent), diarrhoea (9percent) and
cent in 2012. malaria (7percent). Globally, about 45per-
cent of under-five deaths are attributable to
undernutrition.
1
Introduction
Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) calls have very high under-five mortality ratespar-
for reducing the under-five mortality rate by two- ticularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, home to
thirds between 1990 and 2015. The world has all 16 countries with an under-five mortality rate
made substantial progress, reducing the under-five above 100 deaths per 1,000 live births. Reduc-
mortality rate 47percent, from 90 (89, 92) deaths ing these inequities across countries and saving
per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 48 (46, 51) in 2012. more childrens lives by ending preventable child
However, this progress has not been enough, and deaths are important priorities.
the target risks being missed at the global level. To
achieve MDG4 on time, the global annual rate of In 2012 the governments of Ethiopia, India and
reduction in under-five mortality rate would need the United States, in close collaboration with
to rise to 15.6percent for 20122015, much faster UNICEF, convened the Child Survival Call to
than the 3.9percent achieved over 20052012. At Action Forum to mobilize political leadership to
the country level, historical trends show that prog- end preventable child deaths. Partners emerged
ress for most countries has been too slow and that from the Call to Action with a revitalized com-
only 13 of the 61 countries with high under-five mitment to child survival under the banner of A
mortality rates (at least 40 deaths per 1,000 live Promise Renewed. More than 170 governments
births in 2012) are currently on track to achieve have signed a pledge to redouble their efforts to
MDG4with an average annual rate of reduction end preventable child deaths so that more coun-
of 4.4percent or more. tries achieve MDG4 and sustain momentum
beyond 2015.
Still, in 2012, 6.6 (6.3, 7.0) million children died
before reaching their fifth birthday, mostly from As global impetus and investment for accelerat-
preventable causes and treatable diseases, even ing child survival grow, monitoring progress at
though the knowledge and technologies for the global and country levels has become even
life-saving interventions are available. In addi- more critical. The United Nations Inter-agency
tion, inequities in child mortality between high- Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN
income and low-income countries remain large. IGME) updates child mortality estimates annu-
In 2012 the under-five mortality rate in low- ally, and this report presents the UN IGMEs lat-
income countries was 82 deaths per 1,000 live est estimates of under-five, infant and neonatal
birthsmore than 13 times the average rate in mortality and assesses progress towards MDG4 at
high-income countries (6). Many countries still the country, regional and global levels.
2
Estimating Child Mortality
The UN Inter-agency Group for Child The UN IGME seeks to compile all available
Mortality Estimation national-level data on child mortality, including
The UN IGME was formed in 2004 to share data data from vital registration systems, population
on child mortality, harmonize estimates within censuses, household surveys and sample regis-
the UN system, improve methods for child mor- tration systems. To estimate the under-five mor-
tality estimation, report on progress towards the tality trend series for each country, a statistical
Millennium Development Goals and enhance model is fitted to data points that meet quality
country capacity to produce timely and prop- standards established by the UN IGME and then
erly assessed estimates of child mortality. The used to predict a trend line that is extrapolated
UN IGME includes UNICEF, the World Health to a common reference year, set at 2012 for the
Organization (WHO), the World Bank and estimates in this report. Infant mortality rates are
the United Nations Population Division of the generated by either applying a statistical model
Department of Economic and Social Affairs as or transforming under-five mortality rates based
full members. on model life tables. Neonatal mortality rates are
produced using a statistical model that uses under-
The UN IGMEs Technical Advisory Group, com- five mortality rates as an input. These methods
prising leading academic scholars and indepen- provide a transparent and objective way of fitting
dent experts in demography and biostatistics, a smoothed trend to a set of observations and of
provides guidance on estimation methods, tech- extrapolating the trend from 1960 to the present.
nical issues and strategies for data analysis and
data quality assessment. Changes in the estimation process
The UN IGME continually seeks to improve its
Data sources and methodology methods and may introduce changes from one
Generating accurate estimates of child mortal- year to the next. This year, a new estimation
ity is a considerable challenge because of the method is used for estimating and extrapolat-
limited availability of high-quality data for many ing the under-five mortality rate, referred to as
countries. Vital registration systems are the pre- the Bayesian B-splines bias-adjusted model or
ferred source of data on child mortality because the B3 model. Compared with the Loess estima-
they collect information as events occur and tion approach that the UN IGME used in previ-
they cover the entire population. If registra- ous years, the B3 model better accounts for data
tion coverage is complete and the systems func- errors, including biases and sampling and non
tion efficiently, the resulting child mortality sampling errors in the data; it can better capture
estimates will be accurate and timely. However, short-term fluctuations in the under-five mortal-
many countries lack fully functioning vital regis- ity rate and its annual rate of reduction. Thus, it
tration systems that accurately record all births is better able to account for evidence of accelera-
and deaths. Therefore, household surveys, such tion in the decline of under-five mortality from
as the UNICEF-supported Multiple Indicator new surveys. Validation exercises show that the
Cluster Surveys and the US Agency for Interna- B3 model also performs better in projections. A
tional Developmentsupported Demographic more complete technical description of the B3
and Health Surveys, have become the primary model is available elsewhere.3
sources of data on child mortality in countries
without functioning vital registration systems. In 2012 the UN IGME produced estimates of the
These surveys ask women about the survival of under-five mortality rate for males and females
their children, and they provide the basis of child separately for the first time. In many countries
mortality estimates for most of these countries. fewer sources have provided data by sex than
4
Why does the UN IGME generate estimates on child mortality based on national data from censuses,
surveys or vital registration systems but not directly use these national data as its official estimates?
Many developing countries lack a single time and produce up-to-date and properly
source of high-quality data covering the last assessed estimates of child mortality.
several decades.
Applying a consistent methodology also
Available data collected by countries are allows for comparisons between countries,
often inconsistent across sources. It is despite the varied number and types of data
important to analyse, reconcile and evalu- sources. One objective of the UN IGME is
ate all data sources simultaneously for each to provide valid and comparable child mor-
country. Each new survey or data point tality estimates for policymakers. To do so,
must be examined in the context of all other the UN IGME applies a common methodol-
sources, including previous data. ogy across countries and uses original empir-
ical data from each country but does not
Data suffer from sampling or nonsampling report figures produced by individual coun-
errors (such as misreporting of age and sur- tries using other methods, which would not
vivor selection bias; underreporting of child be comparable to other country estimates.
deaths is also common). The UN IGME
assesses the quality of underlying data To increase the transparency of the estima-
sources and adjusts data when necessary. tion process, the UN IGME has developed
In the absence of error-free data, there will a global database. All data, estimates and
always be uncertainty around data and esti- details on the UN IGME methods are
mates. To allow for added comparability, the available on the CME Info website at
UN IGME generates such estimates with www.childmortality.org.
uncertainty bounds.
Broad strategy of the UN IGME
The latest data produced by countries often
are not current estimates but refer to an The UN IGME follows a broad strategy to gener-
earlier reference period. This is particularly ate annual estimates of child mortality:
the case for estimates from the most recent
national survey (such as a Multiple Indi- Compile all available nationally representative
cator Cluster Survey or Demographic and data relevant to the estimation of child mor-
Health Survey), which typically refers to a tality, including data from vital registration
period before the survey year that is several systems, population censuses, household
years before the target year of UN IGME surveys and sample registration systems.
estimates. Thus, the UN IGME also extrap-
olates estimates to a common reference Assess data quality, recalculate data and
year. make adjustments if needed by applying
standard methods.
A consistent and comparable trend line from
1990 is needed for monitoring progress Fit a statistical model to the data observa-
towards MDG4 for each country. tions to generate a trend curve.
The UN IGME aims to minimize the errors Extrapolate the model to a target year, in this
for each estimate, harmonize trends over case 2012.
5
Examples of country data
Under-five mortality estimation is challenging in the absence acountry with abundant data but wide variations in the rates
of complete vital registration systems, as is the case in many and trends between data sources (Nigeria) and a country
developing countries. Existing data sources often suffer with abundant data and small variations between data points
from various data quality issues, including underreporting of (Senegal). The Senegal example also shows the trend line of
deaths, misreporting of ages, selection bias and other sam- the under-five mortality rate that results from the B3 curve-
pling and nonsampling errors. Below are examples of the fitting (black line) with the corresponding 90percent un-
real underlying mortality data used to derive the estimates certainty range (red band). Detailed graphs showing all the
of the under-five mortality rate from countries with sparse underlying data and the UN IGME trend estimates are avail-
data (Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea and Djibouti), able for all countries at www.childmortality.org.
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
6
have provided data for both sexes combined. For members, including UNICEF, the WHO and other
this reason the UN IGME uses the available data UN agencies, are actively involved in strengthen-
by sex to estimate a time trend in the sex ratio ing national capacity in data collection, estimation
(male : female) of child mortality, rather than techniques and interpretation of results.
estimate child mortality trends by sex directly
from reported sex-specific mortality rates. This Population-based survey data are critical for
year, new Bayesian methods have been developed developing reliable estimates for countries lack-
by the UN IGME for estimating sex ratios of child ing functioning vital registration systems. The
mortality, with a focus on identifying countries UNICEF-supported Multiple Indicator Cluster
with outlying levels or trends.4 Surveys programme has been working since 1995
to build country-level capacity for survey imple-
In addition to the changes in the methods, a mentation, data analysis and dissemination. The
substantial amount of newly available data have surveys are government owned and implemented,
been incorporated: data from about 50 surveys with UNICEF providing support through work-
and censuses conducted since 2009 for almost 50 shops, technical consultations and peer-to-peer
countries, data from more than 30 surveys and mentoring. More than 200 surveys have been
censuses conducted before 2009 for more than conducted in some 100 countries. In addition to
10 countries and new data from vital registration population-based surveys, the WHO, the World
systems for about 90 countries. Bank and the UN Statistics Division work with
countries to strengthen vital registration systems.
The increased data availability has substantially UNICEF supports this work by promoting and
changed the estimates for some countries from monitoring progress in birth registration. The
previous editions partly because the fitted trend United Nations Population Fund provides tech-
line is based on the entire time series of data nical assistance for population censuses, another
available for each country. In addition, changes important source of under-five mortality data.
from the Loess model to the B3 model may cause
changes in the estimates, though results are more The UN IGME strengthens capacity by work-
or less similar for most of the countries. The esti- ing with countries to improve understanding of
mates presented in this report may differ from under-five mortality data and estimation. CME
and are not necessarily comparable with previous Info, a comprehensive data portal on child mor-
sets of the UN IGME estimates or the most recent tality funded and maintained by UNICEF, is a
underlying country data. powerful platform for sharing underlying data
and collaborating with national partners on
Country consultation child mortality estimates. Since 2008 a series of
A joint WHOUNICEF country consultation was regional workshops has been held, training more
undertaken in July 2013 to give each countrys than 250 participants from 94 countries in the
Ministry of Health and National Statistics Office use of CME Info as well as the demographic tech-
the opportunity to review all data inputs and the niques and modelling methods underlying the
draft estimates for its country. The objective was estimates. In the last few years UNICEF and the
to identify relevant data not included in the UN UN IGME have sent experts to some 15 countries
IGMEs databaseChild Mortality Estimation to conduct training on child mortality estima-
Information (CME Info)and allow countries tion. As part of the data review process, UNICEFs
to review and provide feedback on estimates; it network of field offices provides opportunities to
was not, however, a country clearance process. assess the plausibility of estimates by engaging in
In 2013, 99 of 195 countries showed interest and a dialogue about the estimates and the underly-
received the preliminary estimates; 47 of them ing data. WHO and UNICEF also engage coun-
provided comments or data; and estimates were tries in a country consultation process through
revised for 28 countries using new data. which governments provide feedback on the esti-
mates and their underlying data.
Capacity strengthening at the country
level Guiding this capacity strengthening work is a
Modelled estimates of child mortality can only fundamental principle: child mortality estima-
be as good as the underlying data. UN IGME tion is not simply an academic exercise but a
7
fundamental part of effective policies and pro- child survival programmes and stimulate action
gramming. UNICEF works with countries to through advocacy. This work involves partnering
ensure that child mortality estimates are used with other agencies, organizations, and initiatives
effectively at the country level, in conjunction such as the Countdown to 2015.
with other data on child health, to improve
8
Levels and Trends in
ChildMortality, 19902012
Under-five mortality Regional trends are also encouraging. All regions
The latest estimates of under-five mortality have reduced the under-five mortality rate by
from the UN IGME show that under-five mor- more than half since 1990 except for Sub-Saha-
tality declined 47percent, from 90 (89, 92) ran Africa and Oceania (figure 1). Eastern Asia,
deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 48 (46, with a reduction of 74percent, and Northern
51) in 2012 (table 1). As a result, the total num- Africa, 69percent, have already reduced the
ber of under-five deaths in the world has fallen under-five mortality rate by two-thirds since
from 12.6million in 1990 to 6.6million in 2012 1990the required reduction to achieve MDG4.
(table2)thanks to more effective and afford- Latin America and the Caribbean, with a reduc-
able treatments, innovative ways of delivering tion of 65percent, and Western Asia, 62percent,
critical interventions to the poor and excluded, are also on track to meet the MDG4 target.
and sustained political commitment.
Many countries have made and are still mak-
The past two decades have witnessed an accel- ing tremendous progress in lowering under-five
eration of progress in lowering mortality among mortality. Of the 61 high-mortality countries
children under age five, with the global annual with at least 40 deaths per 1,000 live births in
rate of reduction increasing to 3.9percent over 2012, 25 have reduced their under-five mortality
20052012 from 1.2percent in 19901995, rate by at least half between 1990 and 2012. Of
2.3percent in 19952000 and 3.7percent in them, Bangladesh (72percent), Malawi (71per-
20002005. cent), Nepal (71percent), Liberia (70percent),
Table
1Levels and trends in the under-five mortality rate, by Millennium Development Goal region,
19902012 (deaths per 1,000 live births, unless otherwise indicated)
Annual rate of
reduction (percent)
MDG Decline
target (percent) 1990 1990 2000
Region 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 19902012 2012 2000 2012
Developed regions 15 11 10 8 7 6 5 57 3.8 3.9 3.8
Developing regions 99 93 83 69 57 53 33 47 2.9 1.8 3.8
Northern Africa 73 57 43 31 24 22 24 69 5.4 5.3 5.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 177 170 155 130 106 98 59 45 2.7 1.4 3.8
Latin America and the Caribbean 54 43 32 25 23 19 18 65 4.7 5.1 4.4
Caucasus and Central Asia 73 73 62 49 39 36 24 50 3.2 1.6 4.5
Eastern Asia 53 46 37 24 16 14 18 74 6.1 3.7 8.0
Excluding China 27 33 31 20 17 15 9 45 2.7 1.2 5.9
Southern Asia 126 109 92 76 63 58 42 54 3.5 3.1 3.9
Excluding India 125 109 93 78 66 61 42 51 3.3 3.0 3.5
South-eastern Asia 71 58 48 38 33 30 24 57 3.9 3.9 3.8
Western Asia 65 54 42 34 26 25 22 62 4.4 4.4 4.5
Oceania 74 70 67 64 58 55 25 26 1.4 1.0 1.7
World 90 85 75 63 52 48 30 47 2.9 1.7 3.8
9
Table
2Levels and trends in the number of deaths of children under agefive, by Millennium Development Goal region,
19902012 (thousands, unless otherwise indicated)
FigureUnder-five mortality declined in all FigureNearly half the worlds under-five deaths were
1 regions between 1990 and 2012 2 concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2012
Under-five mortality rate, by Millenium Development Goal region, 1990 and Share of global under-five deaths by Millennium Development
2012 (deaths per 1,000 live births) Goal region, 19902012 (percent)
200
Oceania
177
Northern Africa
Developed regions
Western Asia
100
150
126
Eastern Asia
80
98
99
100
90
South-eastern Asia
70
74
73
73
71
65
58
55
54
53
60
53
48
50
36
30
50 Southern Asia
22
25
19
14
15
40
6
0
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Eastern Asia
Developed regions
Western Asia
South-eastern Asia
Caucasus and Central Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Asia
World
Oceania
Developing regions
30
20
Sub-Saharan Africa
10
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
10
Map Children in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia face a higher risk of dying before
1 theirfifthbirthday
Less than 20
2039
4079
80119
120 or more
Note: This map is stylized and not to scale. It does not reflect a position by UN IGME agencies on the legal status of any country or territory or the delimitation of any frontiers.
Tanzania (68percent), Timor-Leste (67per- a reduction of only 45percent since 1990 in this
cent), and Ethiopia (67percent) have already region, progress has been slower than any other
reduced the under-five mortality rate by two- region except Oceania. As the rest of the world
thirds. In absolute terms 15 countries made reduces child mortality, under-five deaths are
reductions surpassing 100 deaths per 1,000 live becoming ever-more concentrated in Sub-Saha-
births since 1990. ran Africa3.2million deaths (nearly half the
global under-five deaths) occurred in this region
However, improving child survival remains unfin- in 2012 (figure 2). It is the only region in which
ished, and wide disparities exist among regions the numbers of live births and child population
and countries (map 1). Globally, the under-five are expected to rise substantially over the next
mortality rate has dropped 47percent since two decades.
1990far from the required two-thirds reduc-
tion. The rate of decline in under-five mortality By 2050 close to 40percent of all live births will
has accelerated but remains insufficient to reach take place in Sub-Saharan Africa and 37percent
MDG4, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, Oce- of the worlds children under age five will live in
ania, Caucasus and Central Asia, and Southern the region. Therefore, the number of under-five
Asia. If current trends continue, only four MDG deaths may stagnate or even increase without
regions (Eastern Asia, Northern Africa, Latin more progress in the region. Despite Sub-Saha-
America and the Caribbean, and Western Asia) ran Africas relatively high rates of under-five
are expected to achieve MDG4 by 2015. mortality, there are signs of progress in the
region. The rate of decline in under-five mortal-
Sub-Saharan Africa continues to confront sig- ity has accelerated over timefrom 0.8percent
nificant challenges, as the region with the high- a year over 19901995 to 4.1percent a year over
est mortality rates in the world98 deaths per 20002012. Higher annual rates of reduction,
1,000 live births in 2012. All 16 countries with an particularly in eastern and southern Africa, show
under-five mortality rate above 100 deaths per that rapid decline in low-income countries is
1,000 live births are in Sub-Sahara Africa. With possible.
11
Southern Asia also continues to have both a high In summary, much has already been achieved
rate of under-five mortality (58 deaths per 1,000 in child survival but much remains to be done.
live births) and a large number of total deaths, There is still time, however, to make a difference.
at 2.1million. India has the highest number of Accelerating the reduction in under-five mortal-
under-five deaths in the world, with 1.4million ity is possible by expanding effective preventive
under-five deaths in 2012. and curative interventions that target the main
causes of post-neonatal deaths (pneumonia, diar-
Globally, an estimated 6.6million children died rhoea, malaria and undernutrition) and the most
(12 deaths every minute) in 2012, mostly from vulnerable newborn babies and children. A revi-
preventable diseases. Pneumonia, diarrhoea and talized commitment to child survival towards
malaria together killed roughly 2.2million chil- the ultimate aim of ending preventable child
dren under age five in 2012, accounting for a deaths is essential. A Promise Renewedthe call
third of all under-five deaths. to action spearheaded by UNICEF and the US
Agency for International Development to end
Evidence shows that violence and political fragil- all preventable child deaths by 2035is such a
ity (weakened capacity to sustain core state func- commitment and more than 170 countries have
tions) contribute to higher rates of under-five signed on to it. Countries, the United Nations
mortality. Of the 20 countries with the worlds and its agencies, civil society and private sector
highest under-five mortality rates, 13 are either organizations must commit to redouble their
affected markedly by conflict or violence, or efforts to reduce child mortality and include this
are in fragile situations.5 Of these 20, 9 are also commitment in the post-2015 agenda.
among the list of top 20 countries with the lowest
annual rate of reduction since 1990 (excluding Neonatal mortality
countries with population less than half a mil- The first 28 days of lifethe neonatal period
lion), indicating that there is little progress in the represent the most vulnerable time for a childs
countries where progress is most needed. survival. In 2012 roughly 44percent of under-
five deaths occur during this period. Reducing
Moreover, emerging evidence has shown alarm- neonatal mortality is increasingly important
ing disparities in under-five mortality at the sub- not only because the proportions of under-five
national level in many countries. Children are deaths that occur during the neonatal period is
at greater risk of dying before age five if they increasing as under-five mortality declines, but
are born in rural areas, poor households, or to a also because the health interventions needed
mother denied basic education. to address the major causes of neonatal deaths
12
generally differ from those needed to address Figure Decline in the neonatal mortality rate
other under-five deaths. 3 is slower than the decline in under-
five mortality rate in all regions
The good news is that neonatal mortality is on
the decline globally. The worlds neonatal mor- Decline in under-five mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate, by
tality rate fell from 33 deaths per 1,000 live births Millennium Development Goal region, 19902012 (percent)
74
natal deaths declined from 4.6million in 1990 to
69
65
65
2.9million in 2012 (table 3).
62
58
60
57
57
56
54
54
While under-five mortality reduction has been
51
50
47
47
45
45
significant, progress in reducing neonatal mor-
40
39
tality has been slower. For the world as a whole, 40
37
37
the neonatal mortality rate declined 37percent
28
26
less than the 47percent decline in the under-five
20
mortality rate (figure 3). There is a consistent
17
pattern of faster decline in the under-five mor-
tality rate compared with the neonatal mortality
0
rate across all MDG regions.
Eastern Asia
Northern Africa
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Western Asia
South-eastern Asia
Southern Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Oceania
Developed regions
Developing regions
World
Because declines in the neonatal mortality rate
are slower than those in the mortality rate for
older children, the share of neonatal deaths
among under-five deaths has increased from
about 37percent in 1990 to 44percent in 2012.
Table
3Neonatal mortality rate, number of neonatal deaths and neonatal deaths as a share of
underfivedeaths, by Millennium Development Goal region, 1990 and 2012
14
15
Statistical table
16
Statistical table (continued)
17
Statistical table (continued)
Democratic Republic
of the Congo 171 155 192 171 155 192 146 110 193 57 0.7 0.4 1.9
Denmark 9 9 9 6 5 6 4 3 4 3 4.0 3.6 4.5
Djibouti 119 100 140 108 89 128 81 49 128 40 1.8 0.4 4.0
Dominica 17 16 19 16 14 17 13 10 16 6 1.4 0.3 2.5
Dominican Republic 60 56 64 40 37 44 27 20 38 20 3.6 2.1 5.1
Ecuador 56 50 62 34 30 40 23 16 35 19 4.0 2.1 5.7
Egypt 86 82 90 45 42 48 21 20 22 29 6.4 6.1 6.7
El Salvador 59 54 65 32 28 36 16 11 23 20 6.0 4.3 7.6
Equatorial Guinea 182 153 215 143 120 171 100 58 180 61 2.7 0.1 5.3
Eritrea 150 137 163 89 81 98 52 39 71 50 4.8 3.4 6.2
Estonia 20 20 21 11 11 12 4 3 4 7 7.9 7.2 8.5
Ethiopia 204 190 220 146 135 158 68 52 86 68 5.0 3.9 6.3
Fiji 31 26 36 24 23 26 22 19 26 10 1.4 0.4 2.4
Finland 7 7 7 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3.8 3.4 4.2
France 9 9 9 5 5 6 4 4 4 3 3.6 3.4 3.9
Gabon 92 81 106 86 75 100 62 48 79 31 1.8 0.5 3.1
Gambia 170 149 195 116 101 135 73 52 100 57 3.8 2.4 5.3
Georgia 35 29 42 34 28 41 20 15 26 12 2.5 1.0 4.1
Germany 9 8 9 5 5 6 4 4 4 3 3.3 3.1 3.6
Ghana 128 121 135 103 96 110 72 56 92 43 2.6 1.5 3.8
Greece 13 12 13 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 4.4 3.9 4.8
Grenada 22 20 24 16 15 17 14 11 17 7 2.2 1.2 3.3
Guatemala 80 75 86 51 45 56 32 23 44 27 4.2 2.7 5.7
Guinea 241 225 257 171 159 183 101 81 122 80 3.9 3.1 5.0
Guinea-Bissau 206 180 235 174 153 200 129 96 171 69 2.1 0.9 3.5
Guyana 60 54 67 46 41 52 35 25 51 20 2.4 0.7 4.1
Haiti 144 136 154 105 98 113 76 66 89 48 2.9 2.2 3.6
Holy See
Honduras 59 55 63 38 35 41 23 19 27 20 4.3 3.5 5.1
Hungary 19 19 20 11 11 12 6 6 7 6 5.1 4.6 5.5
Iceland 6 6 7 4 4 5 2 2 3 2 4.7 3.4 6.0
India 126 122 130 92 88 95 56 51 62 42 3.6 3.2 4.1
Indonesia 84 80 88 52 50 55 31 27 36 28 4.5 3.9 5.2
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 56 52 61 35 32 38 18 15 21 19 5.3 4.5 6.2
Iraq 53 49 58 45 41 49 34 29 41 18 2.0 1.1 2.8
Ireland 9 9 10 7 7 8 4 4 5 3 3.8 3.3 4.4
Israel 12 11 12 7 7 7 4 4 5 4 4.6 4.2 5.0
Italy 10 10 10 6 5 6 4 4 4 3 4.3 3.9 4.6
Jamaica 30 25 36 23 20 28 17 12 25 10 2.6 0.8 4.3
18
Statistical table (continued)
Democratic Republic
of the Congo 267 240 302 391 291 531 179 163 154 137 112 100 178 271 47 44 75 118
Denmark 1 1 1 0 0 0 10 8 4 3 7 3 0 0 5 3 0 0
Djibouti 3 3 4 2 1 3 126 112 86 75 93 66 3 2 40 31 1 1
Dominica 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 16 14 12 14 12 0 0 12 9 0 0
Dominican Republic 13 12 13 6 4 8 64 55 30 24 46 23 10 5 27 15 6 3
Ecuador 17 15 19 8 5 12 61 50 26 20 44 20 13 6 20 10 6 3
Egypt 155 147 163 40 38 42 86 85 22 20 63 18 114 35 33 12 59 23
El Salvador 10 9 11 2 2 3 64 54 18 14 46 14 8 2 17 6 3 1
Equatorial Guinea 3 3 4 3 1 5 190 174 106 94 123 72 2 2 47 34 1 1
Eritrea 21 19 23 11 8 16 161 139 57 47 92 37 13 8 35 18 5 4
Estonia 0 0 1 0 0 0 23 18 4 3 17 3 0 0 11 2 0 0
Ethiopia 444 409 483 205 153 259 217 190 74 62 121 47 267 140 54 29 120 88
Fiji 1 1 1 0 0 0 34 27 25 20 26 19 1 0 13 10 0 0
Finland 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 6 3 3 6 2 0 0 4 2 0 0
France 6 6 6 3 3 3 10 8 5 4 7 3 5 3 4 2 2 2
Gabon 3 3 4 3 2 4 99 86 67 57 60 42 2 2 33 25 1 1
Gambia 7 6 8 5 4 7 177 162 78 68 80 49 3 4 46 28 2 2
Georgia 3 3 4 1 1 2 39 30 22 17 30 18 3 1 23 15 2 1
Germany 7 7 7 3 3 3 10 7 5 4 7 3 6 2 4 2 3 2
Ghana 70 66 75 56 43 72 135 121 77 66 80 49 44 38 40 28 22 22
Greece 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 11 5 4 11 4 1 0 9 3 1 0
Grenada 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 20 15 12 18 11 0 0 10 7 0 0
Guatemala 27 25 28 15 11 21 85 75 35 29 60 27 20 12 29 15 10 7
Guinea 64 59 69 41 33 51 248 233 106 96 142 65 38 27 54 34 14 14
Guinea-Bissau 9 7 10 8 6 10 220 191 139 119 122 81 5 5 58 46 2 3
Guyana 1 1 1 1 0 1 67 53 40 31 46 29 1 0 28 19 1 0
Haiti 36 34 39 20 17 24 152 135 82 69 100 57 25 15 37 25 9 7
Holy See
Honduras 11 10 12 5 4 6 64 54 26 20 46 19 8 4 23 12 4 2
Hungary 3 3 3 1 1 1 21 17 7 6 17 5 3 1 13 4 2 0
Iceland 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 6 3 2 5 2 0 0 3 1 0 0
India 3,325 3,208 3,439 1,414 1,280 1,573 121 130 54 59 88 44 2,333 1,097 51 31 1,354 779
Indonesia 385 367 404 152 131 175 90 77 35 27 62 26 279 125 30 15 134 72
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 107 98 116 26 22 31 57 56 19 17 44 15 82 23 26 11 49 16
Iraq 35 32 38 35 29 42 57 49 38 31 42 28 28 29 26 19 17 19
Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 8 4 4 8 3 0 0 5 2 0 0
Israel 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 11 5 4 10 3 1 1 6 2 1 0
Italy 5 5 6 2 2 2 11 9 4 4 8 3 5 2 6 2 4 1
Jamaica 2 1 2 1 1 1 34 26 19 15 25 14 1 1 17 11 1 1
19
Statistical table (continued)
20
Statistical table (continued)
21
Statistical table (continued)
22
Statistical table (continued)
23
Statistical table (continued)
Estimates of under-five, infant and neonatal mortality by Millennium Development Goal regiona
Developed regions 15 15 15 10 10 10 6 6 7 5 3.8 3.6 4.1
Developing regions 99 98 101 83 82 84 53 51 56 33 2.9 2.6 3.1
Northern Africa 73 71 75 43 41 44 22 20 25 24 5.4 4.8 5.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 177 174 182 155 152 159 98 92 107 59 2.7 2.3 3.0
Latin America & Caribbean 54 52 56 32 31 33 19 18 20 18 4.7 4.4 5.0
Caucasus & Central Asia 73 69 78 62 58 67 36 28 50 24 3.2 1.7 4.3
Eastern Asia 53 49 59 37 35 39 14 12 16 18 6.1 5.3 6.8
Excluding China 27 24 32 31 25 38 15 13 18 9 2.7 2.4 3.0
Southern Asia 126 123 128 92 90 95 58 54 62 42 3.5 3.2 3.9
Excluding India 125 123 128 93 91 96 61 56 67 42 3.3 2.8 3.7
South-eastern Asia 71 69 73 48 46 49 30 28 34 24 3.9 3.3 4.3
Western Asia 65 63 68 42 40 44 25 22 29 22 4.4 3.6 5.1
Oceania 74 68 81 67 59 76 55 39 78 25 1.4 0.3 2.9
World 90 89 92 75 74 77 48 46 51 30 2.9 2.6 3.0
24
Statistical table (continued)
Estimates of under-five, infant and neonatal mortality by Millennium Development Goal regiona
(continued)
Developed regions 226 224 229 90 86 95 16 13 7 6 12 5 189 76 8 4 117 50
Developing regions 12,394 12,192 12,641 6,463 6,234 6,868 102 97 55 51 69 38 8,662 4,725 36 23 4,507 2,802
Northern Africa 268 260 278 88 80 99 75 70 24 20 56 19 205 76 30 13 109 51
Sub-Saharan Africa 3,772 3,689 3,872 3,245 3,048 3,578 186 168 103 92 107 64 2,285 2,146 45 32 968 1,090
Latin America & Caribbean 627 606 648 206 198 219 58 49 21 17 43 16 496 174 22 10 255 106
Caucasus & Central Asia 146 138 155 64 50 90 81 65 41 32 60 31 120 56 25 15 50 27
Eastern Asia 1,675 1,535 1,855 272 238 315 55 51 15 13 42 12 1,336 235 24 8 771 164
Excluding China 28 24 32 14 11 17 29 25 17 13 21 12 21 11 11 7 11 7
Southern Asia 4,784 4,664 4,904 2,108 1,959 2,277 123 128 57 58 89 45 3,400 1,648 50 31 1,925 1,127
Excluding India 1,459 1,427 1,496 694 635 766 128 123 64 58 92 49 1,067 551 49 31 571 348
South-eastern Asia 843 819 871 346 314 389 77 65 34 27 52 25 609 280 27 15 315 168
Western Asia 265 255 277 120 104 142 69 61 27 23 49 20 200 98 27 13 109 63
Oceania 14 13 16 15 10 21 79 69 59 50 55 42 11 11 26 22 5 6
World 12,621 12,418 12,868 6,553 6,323 6,958 92 87 50 46 63 35 8,851 4,801 33 21 4,625 2,852
25
Statistical table (continued)
Estimates of under-five, infant and neonatal mortality by World Health Organization regiona
Under-five mortality rate (U5MR)
(deaths per 1,000 live births)
Annual rate of reduction (ARR)
Millennium (percent)
1990 2000 2012 Development 19902012
Goal
Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper targetfor Lower Upper
Region U5MR bound bound U5MR bound bound U5MR bound bound 2015 ARR bound bound
Africa 173 170 177 154 150 157 95 90 105 58 2.7 2.3 3.0
Americas 42 41 44 26 25 27 15 15 16 14 4.6 4.3 4.8
Eastern Mediterranean 103 101 106 82 80 85 57 53 63 34 2.7 2.3 3.1
Europe 32 31 33 22 21 23 12 11 14 11 4.4 3.6 5.0
South-East Asia 118 115 121 84 81 86 50 46 54 39 3.9 3.5 4.3
Western Pacific 52 49 57 35 34 37 16 15 18 17 5.3 4.7 5.9
World 90 89 92 75 74 77 48 46 51 30 2.9 2.6 3.0
26
Statistical table (continued)
World 12,621 12,418 12,868 6,553 6,323 6,958 92 87 50 46 63 35 8,851 4,801 33 21 4,625 2,852
Estimates of under-five, infant and neonatal mortality by World Health Organization regiona (continued)
27
Statistical table (continued)
Estimates of under-five, infant and neonatal mortality by United Nations Population Division regiona
Definitions
Under-five mortality rate: Probability of dying between birth and exactly five years of age, expressed per 1,000 live births.
Infant mortality rate: Probability of dying between birth and exactly one year of age, expressed per 1,000 live births.
Neonatal mortality rate: Probability of dying in the first month of life, expressed per 1,000 live births.
Note: Upper and lower bounds refer to the 90percent uncertainty intervals for the estimates. Estimates are generated by the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation to ensure comparability;
they are not necessarily the official statistics of UN Member States, which may use alternative rigorous methods.
a The sum of the number of deaths by region may differ from the world total because of rounding.
28
Statistical table (continued)
Estimates of under-five, infant and neonatal mortality by World Bank regiona (continued)
Estimates of under-five, infant and neonatal mortality by United Nations Population Division regiona
(continued)
29
Regional
Classifications
The regional classifications that are referred to in the report and for which aggregate data are provided in
the statistical table are Millennium Development Goal regions (see below). Aggregates presented for member
organizations of the Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation may differ. Regions with the same names
in different agencies may include different countries.
30
Cover photo:
UNICEF/BRDA2012-00032/PAWEL KRZYSIEK
April 2012, A child waiting for his meal at the UNICEF-supported Positive Deviance site in the
commune of Matongo, Kayanza province, north of Burundi. Positive Deviance is a community-
led package of nutrition, health and hygiene interventions to improve childrens well-being.
The UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) was
formed in 2004 to share data on child mortality, harmonize estimates
within the UN system, improve methods for child mortality estimation,
report on progress towards the Millennium Development Goals and
enhance country capacity to produce timely and properly assessed
estimates of child mortality. The UN IGME includes the United Nations
Childrens Fund, the World Health Organization, the World Bank and the
United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and
Social Affairs as full members.