Growing similarities

Jaime S. Bautista, former ambassador to Russia and professor of international law at the Philippine
Christian University and Ateneo de Manila Law School, believes the Russian and Filipino leaders have
a lot in common.

What Rodrigo Dutertes win in the Philippine elections means for Russia

Putin, Bautista writes, is the tough leader who is able to hold immense Russia together and overcome
the nations enormous challenges. In our recent elections, Filipinos elected Duterte to the highest
position in the country, seeing in him a macho, decisive, and a man of action who could impose law
and order throughout our archipelago, and build an inclusive economy.

He adds: Based on my diplomatic experience I can appreciate that Russia, as a Pacific power with its
own pivot to Asia, can influence events to preserve the peace and prosperity of our Pacific region.

Diplomatic ties

Coincidentally, this year marks the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between
Russia and the Philippines. It was initiated by former President Ferdinand Marcos, who sensed that
the United States would lose the Vietnam War and the Philippines therefore needed to establish ties
with the victorious side led by Moscow.

India, a staunch Soviet ally, facilitated the first formal diplomatic contact, in New Delhi in 1975, which
led to further meetings in Moscow, leading to the creation of formal ties between the Philippines and
the USSR in 1976.

Way forward

Russia and the Philippines have been circling around an economic and security deal for years. The
latest falling out between the Philippines and its former colonial power could just be the cue for
Moscow to step in.

Filipinos elected Duterte to the highest position in the country, seeing in him a macho, decisive, and a
man of action who could impose law and order throughout our archipelago

Filipinos appreciate that Russia is building its relations with Southeast Asia on an ideology-free basis.
More specifically, Moscow is not taking sides in the South China Sea disputes. In the spat over the
Spratley Islands, Russia has not backed China at the expense of the Philippines or vice-versa.

This is because of two reasons. One, Moscow and Beijing are not formal allies so the Chinese cannot
expect much in the way of support from Russia in their territorial fights. Secondly, Russia has no
self-interest in the South China Sea, other than trade and arms exports, so it wont meddle in the
affairs of those involved in these disputes.

Another key aspect of Russias foray into the ASEAN region is that it is not antagonistic in nature.
Russia is applying pressure in the Pacific in order to offset Western pressure in Ukraine and Eastern
Europe. But in the ASEAN region, Russia is more interested in commerce and influence rather than
geopolitical maneuvers. So Moscow will not side with China against the others in South East Asia.

Philippine Ambassador to Russia Carlos D. Sorreta, who was the Director of the Philippine Foreign
Service Institute, agrees. Both Russia and China want a stable Central and East Asia, he wrote in a
discussion paper titled Security Developments in the Asia Pacific: Philippine and Russian Perspectives.
They want their 4209 km border secure. China has replaced Germany as Russias largest trading
partner. Russia is selling arms once again to China. Chinas moneyed investors have been looking at
Russia.
 Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (L) chats with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte (R)
at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Vientiane. Source: AFP / East News

We believe that all this would not necessarily translate to Russian support for Chinas efforts to claim
the South China Sea. China clearly wants to be the dominant power in the region, something that
could jeopardize Russias efforts to engage the region and develop its Far East area.

The Russian International Affairs Council believes that Russia should implement flexible geo-political
maneuvering in its relations with China. This would necessitate a careful balancing at that requires
Russia to maintain good relations with China while deepening ties with countries in the region that
may have issues with China.

I believe this is a good strategy and one that that the Philippines could support. It is a strategy that
would require Russia not to take sides on who owns what, but would allow it to support actions that
are based on the principles of international law and that reduce tensions.

Growing the economic side

In 2015, total mutual trade turnover amounted to just $0.58 billion, a significant drop from $1.4
billion in the year earlier period. Unfortunately, commercial exchange between the two countries
lacks diversification, as the supply of oil and petroleum products accounts for 88 percent of Russias
export to the Philippines.

Igor Khovaev, the Russian ambassador to the Philippines, sees a lot of opportunities in the fields of
transportation, energy, trade, investments and mining. Plus, Russian tourists spend two to three
weeks in the Philippines with their families. He is also eyeing talks on possible bilateral labor relations,
to invite more Filipinos to work in Russia.

Clinching factor

During his election campaign, Duterte had promised to relook the 2014 Visiting Forces Agreement
between the Philippines and the U.S. Filipinos have come to perceive the treaty as discriminatory and
imposed by a dominant and former colonial power. Having American bases and military personal
scurrying around the country with impunity is not insults Filipino pride but the agreement places
curbs on the countrys ability to act independently in the international and military domains.

Pacific pushback: How the Russia-China semi-alliance could stabilise Asia

Meanwhile, as the Philippines and the U.S. lurch towards a divorce, new suitor Russia is putting on the
charm offensive. According to ambassador Khovaev, Moscow and Manila are ideal allies. We have no
disputes, no political contradictions or differences, he says. Whats needed now is develop
cooperation in practical terms, to elaborate and implement specific concrete projects in different
fields. Its time for the Russians to discover the Philippines and vice versa. Its time for the Filipinos to
discover the Russians.