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CFLD

CFLD NUS Business Analytics Innovation Challenge - 2017 “Find out where the people are going and

NUS Business Analytics Innovation Challenge - 2017

“Find out where the people are going and buy the land before they get there”

Analytics Innovation Challenge - 2017 “Find out where the people are going and buy the land
Analytics Innovation Challenge - 2017 “Find out where the people are going and buy the land
Analytics Innovation Challenge - 2017 “Find out where the people are going and buy the land
CFLD – Company Profile • China Fortune Land Development Co., (Singapore) Investment Pte. Ltd. is

CFLD Company Profile

CFLD – Company Profile • China Fortune Land Development Co., (Singapore) Investment Pte. Ltd. is the

China Fortune Land Development Co., (Singapore) Investment Pte. Ltd. is the largest industrial city developer in China

Developing over 54 integrated new industrial cities within the People's Republic of China

Presently establishing its global presence in countries such as Egypt, United States and South-east Asian countries

Team - Outliers

Team Outliers is Ashesh Sasidharan, Raghav Garg, Rahul Dey and Sudharsan Ganesh

15+ years of diverse industry experiences in Engineering, Analytics, Healthcare, Finance and Technology

Hailing from different geographies of India, three out of the four members have stayed and worked in NCR India for over 10 years combined. The Team has good knowledge around NCR region market

*Innovation Challenge Details

Problem Statement Combine innovative data sourcing and creative machine learning to evaluate land prices in

Problem Statement

Problem Statement Combine innovative data sourcing and creative machine learning to evaluate land prices in New

Combine innovative data sourcing and creative machine learning to evaluate land prices in New Delhi

1. To rank the factors that affect the land value in New Delhi (50 kilometres range)

2. Discover the areas with huge growth potential

3. Develop a predictive model for the future change of land value in the regions with great potential

Strategy Focus Opportunity Research Identify Predictive Strategize Factors Modeling • Identify the investment
Strategy Focus
Opportunity
Research
Identify
Predictive
Strategize
Factors
Modeling
• Identify the
investment
opportunities
• Dimensions
impacting real
estate land
value
• Structured and
• Machine
Unstructured
learning &
• Develop a
deployment
framework
data
Text analytics
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 1 2 Business Impact Solution Approach Quantitative
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 1 2 Business Impact Solution Approach Quantitative

Real Estate Land Valuation | Road Map

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 1 2 Business Impact Solution Approach Quantitative Study
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 1 2 Business Impact Solution Approach Quantitative Study

1

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 1 2 Business Impact Solution Approach Quantitative Study

2

Business Impact

Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 1 2 Business Impact Solution Approach Quantitative Study Build
Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 1 2 Business Impact Solution Approach Quantitative Study Build

Solution Approach

Quantitative Study

Build Micro and Macro level models on structured data

5

Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution

3

5 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution
5 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution

6

Market Validation

Validate the predictive solution results

6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to study
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to study
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to study
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to study
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to study

4

Qualitative Study

Use unstructured data to study sentiment and market confidence

Effectiveness of predictive solution

Market Opportunity - India India - 2021 Biggest Turnaround Infrastructure Moved up 42 places since

Market Opportunity - India

Market Opportunity - India India - 2021 Biggest Turnaround Infrastructure Moved up 42 places since 2014
India - 2021
India - 2021

Biggest Turnaround

Infrastructure

Moved up 42 places since 2014 in ease

50Km national highway network. USD 100bn investment in the DMIC.

of doing business and awarded rating’s

upgrade by Moody’s.

doing business and awarded rating’s upgrade by Moody’s. Foreign Direct Investment Record high FDI of USD
doing business and awarded rating’s upgrade by Moody’s. Foreign Direct Investment Record high FDI of USD

Foreign Direct Investment

Record high FDI of USD 8.5bn in August 2017.

Market Size

Real estate market to touch USD 180bn by 2020 and generate 7.6mn jobs in next 5

Economic Reforms

Smart Cities

Implementation of GST and 100% FDI allowed in townships.

90 smart cities at expenditure of USD 30bn.

“Don’t wait to buy real estate, buy real estate and wait”

The Hindu Business Line, 2014

Ernst and Young 2013

Bloomberg, 2017

*T. Harv Eker

Market Study | Delhi - National Capital Region (NCR) 22% Share of NCR in country’s
Market Study | Delhi - National Capital Region (NCR) 22% Share of NCR in country’s

Market Study | Delhi - National Capital Region (NCR)

22% Share of NCR in country’s FDI inflow
22%
Share of NCR in country’s FDI inflow

64M

Population projection of NCR region in 2021

14%

Projected growth of property market in NCR until 2021

38%

Projected workforce

participation in 2021

63% 71% 36K 213 Level of Urbanization in 2011 Projected Urbanization in 2021 Length of
63%
71%
36K
213
Level of
Urbanization in 2011
Projected
Urbanization in 2021
Length of road
network in
Kilometers
Length of metro rail
network in
kilometers
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative Study Build
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative Study Build

Real Estate Land Valuation | Road Map

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative Study Build Micro
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative Study Build Micro
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative Study Build Micro
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative Study Build Micro

Market Study

Solution Approach

Quantitative Study

Build Micro and Macro level models on structured data

5

Study market opportunity within India and Delhi

1

Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution

3

1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution

6

Market Validation

Validate the predictive solution results

6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 2 Business Impact Effectiveness of predictive solution 4
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 2 Business Impact Effectiveness of predictive solution 4
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 2 Business Impact Effectiveness of predictive solution 4
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 2 Business Impact Effectiveness of predictive solution 4
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 2 Business Impact Effectiveness of predictive solution 4

2

Business Impact

Effectiveness of predictive solution

4

Qualitative Study

Use unstructured data to study sentiment and market confidence

Business Impact – Comparative Study A $1 investment will be valued at $44 in Gurgaon
Business Impact – Comparative Study A $1 investment will be valued at $44 in Gurgaon

Business Impact Comparative Study

A $1 investment will be valued at $44 in Gurgaon as compared to $15 in
A $1 investment will be valued at $44 in Gurgaon as compared to $15 in Ghaziabad over 10 years

Ghaziabad IRR estimated 31%

Marginally lower IRR towards Uttar

Pradesh side of NCR can be attributed to UP being a reluctant borrower of concessionary funds allotted for development and landlocked nature of Ghaziabad

Gurgaon IRR estimated 46%

Improved IRR towards Haryana side of NCR can be attributed to continuously improving infrastructure and connectivity to Delhi as well as an expansion of civic amenities

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Internal Rate of
Return (IRR)

Note* :

- IRR estimation incorporated revenue using current commercial rental yields and constant inflationary trends in Gurgaon and Ghaziabad over a 10 year period

- IRR estimation incorporated cost using information from CFLD’s MoU signed with the Haryana Government

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 3 Market Study Quantitative
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 3 Market Study Quantitative

Real Estate Land Valuation | Road Map

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 3 Market Study Quantitative Study
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 3 Market Study Quantitative Study

2

Business Impact

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 3 Market Study Quantitative Study

3

Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 3 Market Study Quantitative Study Build
Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 3 Market Study Quantitative Study Build

Market Study

Quantitative Study

Build Micro and Macro level models on structured data

5

Study market opportunity within India and Delhi

1

data 5 Study market opportunity within India and Delhi 1 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive
data 5 Study market opportunity within India and Delhi 1 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive

6

Market Validation

Validate the predictive solution results

6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to study
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to study
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to study
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to study
6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to study

4

Qualitative Study

Use unstructured data to study sentiment and market confidence

Effectiveness of predictive solution

Solution Architecture Define Focus Area Delhi-NCR 3 States 8 Districts 389 Sectors Dimensions Macroeconomic data

Solution Architecture

Define Focus Area

Delhi-NCR

3 States

8 Districts 389 Sectors

Dimensions

Macroeconomic data

Location & Accessibility People & Market Sentiments Amenities & Facilities

People & Market Sentiments Amenities & Facilities Data Sources Google API Government Resources Real Estate
People & Market Sentiments Amenities & Facilities Data Sources Google API Government Resources Real Estate
People & Market Sentiments Amenities & Facilities Data Sources Google API Government Resources Real Estate
People & Market Sentiments Amenities & Facilities Data Sources Google API Government Resources Real Estate
People & Market Sentiments Amenities & Facilities Data Sources Google API Government Resources Real Estate

Data Sources

Google API

Government Resources Real Estate Websites News Articles

Twitter

Techniques

Machine Learning Econometrics Natural Language Processing

Data Sourcing Education Government (Macro-economic) ( 11,100 schools and universities) Healthcare (6,300 hospitals) News

Data Sourcing

Education

Data Sourcing Education Government (Macro-economic) ( 11,100 schools and universities) Healthcare (6,300 hospitals) News

Government

(Macro-economic)

Data Sourcing Education Government (Macro-economic) ( 11,100 schools and universities) Healthcare (6,300 hospitals) News

(11,100 schools and universities)

Healthcare

(6,300 hospitals)

schools and universities) Healthcare (6,300 hospitals) News (2,126 Articles) Transportation (5,510 Bus and

News (2,126 Articles)

Healthcare (6,300 hospitals) News (2,126 Articles) Transportation (5,510 Bus and Railway stations) Security

Transportation (5,510

Bus and Railway stations)

Articles) Transportation (5,510 Bus and Railway stations) Security (1,148 Police stations) Land Value Economy
Articles) Transportation (5,510 Bus and Railway stations) Security (1,148 Police stations) Land Value Economy

Security (1,148 Police stations)

Bus and Railway stations) Security (1,148 Police stations) Land Value Economy (Macro-economic) Twitter (10,000tweets)
Land Value
Land Value

Economy

(Macro-economic)

Twitter

(10,000tweets)

Land Value Economy (Macro-economic) Twitter (10,000tweets) Lifestyle (8,941 stores) P a r k s (69 amusement
Land Value Economy (Macro-economic) Twitter (10,000tweets) Lifestyle (8,941 stores) P a r k s (69 amusement

Lifestyle

(8,941 stores)

Parks

(10,000tweets) Lifestyle (8,941 stores) P a r k s (69 amusement parks) Demographics (Macro-economic) Worship

(69 amusement parks)

Lifestyle (8,941 stores) P a r k s (69 amusement parks) Demographics (Macro-economic) Worship (10,913 temples,

Demographics

(Macro-economic)

stores) P a r k s (69 amusement parks) Demographics (Macro-economic) Worship (10,913 temples, mosques and

Worship

(10,913 temples, mosques and church)

Predictive Modelling Strategy Model II- Model Micro Model III-Macro Model Model I- Unstructure d Data

Predictive Modelling Strategy

Predictive Modelling Strategy Model II- Model Micro Model III-Macro Model Model I- Unstructure d Data Land
Model II- Model Micro Model III-Macro Model Model I- Unstructure d Data
Model II-
Model
Micro
Model
III-Macro
Model
Model I-
Unstructure
d Data
Land Value Evaluation
Land Value Evaluation

Qualitative Study

Model I Unstructured Data

Natural Language Processing is used to study sentiment & network analysis in real estate news and twitter

Quantitative Study

Model II Micro Model

Geospatial analytics is used to collect amenities, facilities, accessibility data

Model III Macro Model

Research & Exploration is used to gather GDP, House price index, Residex etc.

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach

Real Estate Land Valuation | Road Map

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative

2

Business Impact

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative

Market Study

Solution Approach

Quantitative Study

Build Micro and Macro level models on structured data

Study market opportunity within India and Delhi

1

Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution

3

1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution

6

Market Validation

Validate the predictive solution results

5

solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 5 4 Effectiveness of predictive solution
solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 5 4 Effectiveness of predictive solution
solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 5 4 Effectiveness of predictive solution
solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 5 4 Effectiveness of predictive solution
solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 5 4 Effectiveness of predictive solution

4

solution 3 6 Market Validation Validate the predictive solution results 5 4 Effectiveness of predictive solution

Effectiveness of predictive solution

Model I – Qualitative Study | Social Media Analytics We study Twitter and Online News
Model I – Qualitative Study | Social Media Analytics We study Twitter and Online News

Model I Qualitative Study | Social Media Analytics

We study Twitter and Online News to understand people’s sentiment and market confidence
We study Twitter and Online News to understand people’s sentiment and market confidence
to understand people’s sentiment and market confidence Twitter Word Cloud Data Source Twitter API Duration

Twitter Word Cloud

Data Source

Twitter API

Duration

29th Oct’17- 5th Nov’17

10,000 Tweets about ‘NCR Real Estate’ are extracted

Twitter analytics results validated the increasing speculation of foreign investments “Trump Effect”

Lot of tweets talk about new deals, investments & projects

Caveats : Free API

Limitation for 7 days of historical data

No access to geo-spatial location of tweets

Solution: Enterprise API

Access to more holistic data

Geo-spatial analysis

Model I – Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times Industry | 519 Articles Commercial
Model I – Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times Industry | 519 Articles Commercial

Model I Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times

Industry | 519 Articles Commercial | 505 Articles
Industry | 519 Articles
Commercial | 505 Articles

Residential | 492 Articles

Infrastructure | 411 Articles

Negative Positive
Negative
Positive

Industry News - Network Analysis

SmartCityinitiativefromGovttodevelopcitizenfriendlyandsustainablecitiesacrossindia

SmartCityinitiativefromGovttodevelopcitizenfriendlyandsustainablecitiesacrossindia

RegulatoryNormslikeRERA Real Estatesectortoattractaninvestment andDemonetisationimpactingResl of around7billionin2017

RegulatoryNormslikeRERA Real Estatesectortoattractaninvestment andDemonetisationimpactingResl of around7billionin2017 EstateSectorbadly- Knight Frank

Estatesectortoattractaninvestment andDemonetisationimpactingResl of around7billionin2017 EstateSectorbadly- Knight Frank

Industry News - Sentiment Analysis

Significant Investment momentumseeninIndustrial sectorKnight Frank Industry News - Sentiment Analysis Importanceof

Importanceof DataAnalyticsunderlinedinBoldstrokesbytheimplementationof RERASignificant Investment momentumseeninIndustrial sector Delhi-NCRreal estatemarket continuedtoremainlackluster

Delhi-NCRreal estatemarket continuedtoremainlackluster inQ1&Q2inrecent yeaInvestment momentumseeninIndustrial sector Importanceof DataAnalyticsunderlinedinBoldstrokesbytheimplementationof RERA

Model I – Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times Industry | 519 Articles Commercial
Model I – Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times Industry | 519 Articles Commercial

Model I Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times

Industry | 519 Articles Commercial | 505 Articles
Industry | 519 Articles
Commercial | 505 Articles

Residential | 492 Articles

Infrastructure | 411 Articles

Negative Positive
Negative
Positive

Commercial News - Network Analysis

Global Significant Investors Investment and newindustrial momentumin zoneand Real Estatesectoracross parks shows market NCRregion confidenceNegative Positive Commercial News - Network Analysis Delhi-NCRandadjoiningareaslikelytoseefreshrealityboom Negative Positive Commercial News - Network Analysis Delhi-NCRandadjoiningareaslikelytoseefreshrealityboom

Delhi-NCRandadjoiningareaslikelytoseefreshrealityboom InidanBullsReal estateshareskyrocket 43%onplanstorejigcommercianbiz Estatesectoracross parks shows market NCRregion confidence Commercial News - Sentiment Analysis Boomingrealitymarket
Delhi-NCRandadjoiningareaslikelytoseefreshrealityboom InidanBullsReal estateshareskyrocket 43%onplanstorejigcommercianbiz

Commercial News - Sentiment Analysis

Boomingrealitymarket Smart CityinitiativefromGovt inNCRresgionpromotingmajorexplansionplan. todevelopcitizenfriendlyandsustainablecities across india Developers Connaught place inDelhi-NCRhavebeenaggressivelybuildingnewcommerical sees the launchof first of its type
Developers Connaught place inDelhi-NCRhavebeenaggressivelybuildingnewcommerical sees the launchof first of its type Lifestyle hubinindia andofficestock CityinitiativefromGovt inNCRresgionpromotingmajorexplansionplan. todevelopcitizenfriendlyandsustainablecities across india CityinitiativefromGovt inNCRresgionpromotingmajorexplansionplan. todevelopcitizenfriendlyandsustainablecities across india
sees the launchof first of its type Lifestyle hubinindia andofficestock

Model I – Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times Residential | 492 Articles Industry
Model I – Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times Residential | 492 Articles Industry

Model I Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times

Residential | 492 Articles
Residential | 492 Articles

Industry | 519 Articles

Commercial | 505 Articles

Infrastructure | 411 Articles

Negative Positive
Negative
Positive

Residential News - Network Analysis

GSTtoimpact propertypricesdifferentlyfor underconstruction, ready-to-move-inhousesNegative Positive Residential News - Network Analysis Negative outlook and buyers protesting confirms negative

Negative outlook and buyers protesting confirms negative sentimentunderconstruction, ready-to-move-inhouses PMAYschemelaunchedtohelplower incomeandeconomicalyweaker

PMAYschemelaunchedtohelplower incomeandeconomicalyweaker grouptoownhouseoutlook and buyers protesting confirms negative sentiment Residential News - Sentiment Analysis

Residential News - Sentiment Analysis

RegulatoryNormslikeRERA andDemonetisationimpactingResidential Sectorbadly- Knight Frgrouptoownhouse Residential News - Sentiment Analysis

AffordableHousingschemehashelpedrealizeddreamzoflakhsofpeopletoownhouse YamunaandDwarkaExpresswaywitnessesadrasticincreaseinHousingRatesinNCRRegion Residential News - Sentiment Analysis RegulatoryNormslikeRERA andDemonetisationimpactingResidential Sectorbadly- Knight Fr
YamunaandDwarkaExpresswaywitnessesadrasticincreaseinHousingRatesinNCRRegion

Model I – Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times Industry | 519 Articles Commercial
Model I – Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times Industry | 519 Articles Commercial

Model I Qualitative Study | News : Economic Times

Industry | 519 Articles

Commercial | 505 Articles

Infrastructure | 411 Articles
Infrastructure | 411 Articles

Residential | 492 Articles

Infrastructure | 411 Articles Residential | 492 Articles Negative Positive Infrastructure News - Network Analysis
Infrastructure | 411 Articles Residential | 492 Articles Negative Positive Infrastructure News - Network Analysis

Negative

Positive

| 411 Articles Residential | 492 Articles Negative Positive Infrastructure News - Network Analysis Infrastructure News

Infrastructure News - Network Analysis

Infrastructure News - Sentiment Analysis

SecondInternational Airport forDelhi-NCRregiontobebuildinNoida'sJewararea- Network Analysis Infrastructure News - Sentiment Analysis Smart HaryanaGovt CityinitiativefromGovt cleared2000crfor

Smart HaryanaGovt CityinitiativefromGovt cleared2000crfor todevelopcitizenfriendlyandsustainablecitiesacrossindia Industrial EstatetobebuildinManesar, Kundli corridorAirport forDelhi-NCRregiontobebuildinNoida'sJewararea Real Estate Stakeholders expect a boost with the Airport forDelhi-NCRregiontobebuildinNoida'sJewararea Real Estate Stakeholders expect a boost with the

Real Estate Stakeholders expect a boost with the announcement of Meerut MetroIndustrial EstatetobebuildinManesar, Kundli corridor Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor Project plannedto link

Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor Project plannedto link 24industrial regionexpect a boost with the announcement of Meerut Metro DDA Significant has introduced Investment a Land

DDA Significant has introduced Investment a Land momentumseen Pooling Policy in to Infrastructure accentuate developmentIndustrial Corridor Project plannedto link 24industrial region WorldTradeCentreinNoida tobecomefullyfunctional by2020 Industrial Corridor Project plannedto link 24industrial region WorldTradeCentreinNoida tobecomefullyfunctional by2020

WorldTradeCentreinNoida tobecomefullyfunctional by2020DDA Significant has introduced Investment a Land momentumseen Pooling Policy in to Infrastructure accentuate development

Strategize – Qualitative Study | Growth Potential Focus on diverse markets that have good, long
Strategize – Qualitative Study | Growth Potential Focus on diverse markets that have good, long

Strategize Qualitative Study | Growth Potential

Focus on diverse markets that have good, long term potential – Diversify Risk
Focus on diverse markets that have good, long term potential – Diversify Risk

Industry

Positive sentiments around industry and infrastructure with emphasis on Smart Cities

Infrastructure

Trump Effect positive effect of President Trump mentioned

across Twitter and news

channels along with increased FDI flows into India.

and news channels along with increased FDI flows into India. Residential Low market confidence and negative
and news channels along with increased FDI flows into India. Residential Low market confidence and negative
and news channels along with increased FDI flows into India. Residential Low market confidence and negative
and news channels along with increased FDI flows into India. Residential Low market confidence and negative
and news channels along with increased FDI flows into India. Residential Low market confidence and negative

Residential

Low market confidence and negative market sentiment around residential projects with builders having declared

Commercial

Mixed sentiments around

investments in commercial

projects

Industry Infrastructure Focus - I
Industry
Infrastructure
Focus - I

Commercial

Focus - II

Infrastructure Focus - I Commercial F o c u s - I I Residential Focus -

Residential

Focus - III

Infrastructure Focus - I Commercial F o c u s - I I Residential Focus -

Maximum Investment

Results

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 5 6 Market Validation
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 5 6 Market Validation

Real Estate Land Valuation | Road Map

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 5 6 Market Validation Validate
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 5 6 Market Validation Validate

2

Business Impact

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 5 6 Market Validation Validate
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 5 6 Market Validation Validate

5

Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 5 6 Market Validation Validate the
Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact 5 6 Market Validation Validate the

6

Market Validation

Validate the predictive solution results

Market Study

Solution Approach

Study market opportunity within India and Delhi

1

Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution

3

1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data to

4

Qualitative Study

Use unstructured data to study sentiment and market confidence

Effectiveness of predictive solution

Model II – Quantitative Study | Micro Model Random forest is able to explain 63%
Model II – Quantitative Study | Micro Model Random forest is able to explain 63%

Model II Quantitative Study | Micro Model

Random forest is able to explain 63% variance in predicting land value
Random forest is able to explain 63% variance in predicting land value
21 Dimensions 389 Sectors Machine Learning 118 Features
21 Dimensions
389 Sectors
Machine Learning
118 Features
 

Top 10 Factors

 

Significance

# Tech parks within 20Km

# Tech parks within 20Km

#

Bus stops within 10Km

 
# Bus stops within 10Km  

# Liquor stores within 10Km

# Liquor stores within 10Km

# Post offices within 10km

# Post offices within 10km

Distance to nearest train station

Distance to nearest train station

# Universities within 20km

# Universities within 20km

#

Hospitals within 10km

 
# Hospitals within 10km  
 

# Temples within 3km

 
  # Temples within 3km  
 

# Schools within 5km

 
  # Schools within 5km  
 

# Banks within 5km

 
  # Banks within 5km  
 
  High Medium L o w

High

  High Medium L o w

Medium

  High Medium L o w

Low

Model III – Quantitative Study | Macro Model Panel Data Model is able to explain
Model III – Quantitative Study | Macro Model Panel Data Model is able to explain

Model III Quantitative Study | Macro Model

Panel Data Model is able to explain 87% variance in predicting land value
Panel Data Model is able to explain 87% variance in predicting land value

Data Source

Government Documents and Websites

Duration

1971-2011 ----(forecast)----> 2013-2017

Number of Features

5

Time Fixed Effects
Time Fixed Effects
District Fixed Effects
District Fixed Effects
Panel Data Model
Panel Data Model

Variable

Significance

Per Capita Income

Per Capita Income

GDP

GDP

Work Force Participation

Work Force Participation

Population Density

Population Density

NHB Residex

NHB Residex
Force Participation Population Density NHB Residex High Medium L o w • Per Capita Income is

High

Participation Population Density NHB Residex High Medium L o w • Per Capita Income is the

Medium

Population Density NHB Residex High Medium L o w • Per Capita Income is the most

Low

Per Capita Income is the most significant variable in model

GDP, Work Force Participation and Population Density have equal importance

NHB Residex (track changes in housing prices at neighbourhood, city and national levels) has low significance

Strategize-Growth Potential|Ensemble Model II & Model III Investments decisions are driven by budget and vision
Strategize-Growth Potential|Ensemble Model II & Model III Investments decisions are driven by budget and vision

Strategize-Growth Potential|Ensemble Model II & Model III

Investments decisions are driven by budget and vision for future

Strategy I Small Scale Investments (Housing, Small Commercial Projects)

Viability score of 389 sectors based on ensemble of micro and macro economic model Top
Viability score of 389 sectors based on ensemble of micro and macro economic model
Top 5 sectors w.r.t viability within each district
model Top 5 sectors w.r.t viability within each district District Delhi Sector Sector Madangir 0.902
model Top 5 sectors w.r.t viability within each district District Delhi Sector Sector Madangir 0.902

District

Delhi

Sector

Sector

Madangir

0.902

Sector Sector Madangir 0.902 Hastsal 0.845 Uttam Nagar 0.824
Sector Sector Madangir 0.902 Hastsal 0.845 Uttam Nagar 0.824

Hastsal

0.845

Uttam Nagar

0.824

Uttam Nagar 0.824

Gurgaon

Khanpur

0.875

Mehrauli

0.853

Delhi Gurgaon Expressway

0.661
0.661

Sector 112

0.624

Sector 112 0.624

Sohna Sector 36

0.604

0.604

Sector 111

0.592

0.592

Sector 37C

0.581

36 0.604 Sector 111 0.592 Sector 37C 0.581 SRS Pearl 0.566 Neharpar 0.558 Sector 89

SRS Pearl

0.566

Neharpar

0.558

0.558

Sector 89

0.540

0.540
SRS Pearl 0.566 Neharpar 0.558 Sector 89 0.540
SRS Pearl 0.566 Neharpar 0.558 Sector 89 0.540

Sector 87

0.562

Sector 87 0.562

Sector 86

0.538

Sector 86 0.538

Faridabad

Sector 1

0.503

Greater Noida West

0.402

0.402

Sector 1 0.503 Greater Noida West 0.402
Sector 1 0.503 Greater Noida West 0.402

Noida

Sector 62

0.396

Sector 49

0.396

Sector 37

0.393

Kaushambi

0.344

Shalimar garden

0.333

Bhopura

0.327

Kaushambi 0.344 Shalimar garden 0.333 Bhopura 0.327
Kaushambi 0.344 Shalimar garden 0.333 Bhopura 0.327
Kaushambi 0.344 Shalimar garden 0.333 Bhopura 0.327
Kaushambi 0.344 Shalimar garden 0.333 Bhopura 0.327
Kaushambi 0.344 Shalimar garden 0.333 Bhopura 0.327
Kaushambi 0.344 Shalimar garden 0.333 Bhopura 0.327

Ghaziabad

Sahibabad

0.325

Surya gar

0.325

Strategize-Growth Potential|Ensemble Model II & Model III Investments decisions are driven by budget and vision
Strategize-Growth Potential|Ensemble Model II & Model III Investments decisions are driven by budget and vision

Strategize-Growth Potential|Ensemble Model II & Model III

Investments decisions are driven by budget and vision for future

Strategy II Big Scale Investments (Smart cities, Industrial Townships)

Relative ranks of districts based on government future roadmap & Model II and Model III
Relative ranks of districts based on government future roadmap & Model II and Model III
Gurgaon and Faridabad should be immediate target
6 - Sonipat 5 - Rohtak 4 - Jhajjar 1 - Gurgaon
6 - Sonipat
5 - Rohtak
4 - Jhajjar
1 - Gurgaon
7 - Baghpat 8 - Ghaziabad
7 - Baghpat
8 - Ghaziabad
2 - Faridabad 3 - Noida
2 - Faridabad
3 - Noida

Rank

City Name

Key Highlights

1

Gurgaon

Gurgaon is the Industrial and Financial center of Modern India

2

Faridabad

Industrial heart of Haryana and a massive economic engine

3

Noida

A viable location for Long term investment strategy

4

Ghaziabad

Offers great connectivity with major Infrastructure development

5

Jhajjar

A Manufacturing hub with $606 ml investment in pipeline

6

Rohtak

Proximity to Delhi & status as Education Hub attracts investor

7

Sonipat

A flourishing urban city with first class Infrastructure facilities

8

Baghpat

One of most promising destination for real estate in NCR region

Results are in alignment with views of market experts

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach

Real Estate Land Valuation | Road Map

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative

2

Business Impact

Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative
Real Estate – Land Valuation | Road Map 2 Business Impact Market Study Solution Approach Quantitative

Market Study

Solution Approach

Quantitative Study

Build Micro and Macro level models on structured data

5

Study market opportunity within India and NCR

1

Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution

3

1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data

6

1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data
1 Data Sourcing and Methodology for predictive solution 3 6 4 Qualitative Study Use unstructured data

4

Qualitative Study

Use unstructured data to study sentiment and market confidence

Effectiveness of predictive solution

Market Validation Investment proposal based on qualitative and quantitative study Qualitative Analysis Industrial Sector

Market Validation

Market Validation Investment proposal based on qualitative and quantitative study Qualitative Analysis Industrial Sector

Investment proposal based on qualitative and quantitative study

proposal based on qualitative and quantitative study Qualitative Analysis Industrial Sector has highest market

Qualitative Analysis Industrial Sector has highest market confidence

Macro Model Gurgaon is most investment viable district

Micro Model Top 4 sectors within Gurgaon

viable district Micro Model Top 4 sectors within Gurgaon Invest in Sohna-Gurgaon Industrial sector Land Price
viable district Micro Model Top 4 sectors within Gurgaon Invest in Sohna-Gurgaon Industrial sector Land Price

Invest in Sohna-Gurgaon Industrial sector

Land Price Forecast top 4 sectors-Gurgaon

Industrial sector Land Price Forecast top 4 sectors-Gurgaon Future Roadmap for Sohna-Gurgaon 2031 Connectivity 150 m

Future Roadmap for Sohna-Gurgaon 2031

Connectivity 150 m wide Gurgaon Extension Sohna Master Plan Industrial Model Town Proximity Gold Refinery
Connectivity
150 m wide
Gurgaon Extension
Sohna Master Plan
Industrial Model
Town
Proximity
Gold Refinery
Top 5 largest
refinery in world
Delhi Mumbai
Industrial Corridor
Future Vision • Enterprise Google and Twitter API ▪ Holistic data ▪ Geospatial attributes •

Future Vision

Future Vision • Enterprise Google and Twitter API ▪ Holistic data ▪ Geospatial attributes • Indian

Enterprise Google and Twitter API

Holistic data

Geospatial attributes

•

Indian Real Estate market is influenced by local brokers and agents.

Field & Ground level research is required

agents. ▪ Field & Ground level research is required • Artificial intelligence ▪ Use drones to

Artificial intelligence

Use drones to survey land quality and high rise buildings

Use drones to survey land quality and high rise buildings • • Collaborating with governments will
•
•

Collaborating with governments will become more important

Smart Cities

Social progress

Diversify Risks

Increased opportunity will be gained by greater and more diverse risks

•

Most of documents are available in local languages

Leverage local documents for advanced analytics

Next Steps We were also able to collect data for dimensions such as crime index,

Next Steps

Next Steps We were also able to collect data for dimensions such as crime index, cost
We were also able to collect data for dimensions such as crime index, cost of
We were also able to collect data
for dimensions such as crime
index, cost of living, pollution
index, wages, etc. Although due
to data sparsity the data could
not be incorporated
Gathering Survey data from
people of NCR-Delhi is
currently in progress to capture
holistic view of
real estate industry
We have access to land price
data for sector level (>500
sectors) in neighbourhood of
Delhi, but it falls beyond 50 km
constraints

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd0fL_xDttLbsHoU3rIALjVzPOel6-xA-Deu7EXYxntR26hUQ/viewform

Thank You!!
Thank You!!

Thank You!!

Thank You!!
Appendix

Appendix

Appendix
Internal Rate of Return(IRR) Calculation | Approach • Assumed an investment of USD 3bn in
Internal Rate of Return(IRR) Calculation | Approach • Assumed an investment of USD 3bn in

Internal Rate of Return(IRR) Calculation | Approach

Assumed an investment of USD 3bn in Gurgaon and Ghaziabad for construction of an IT/Commercial Hub over a period of 10 years, starting 2018.

All outbound cashflows were compounded to 2028, the year the Hub is open for rent.

Two of India’s big commercial projects like Hitech City in Hyderabad and DLF Cyber City in Gurgaon were selected for benchmarking parameters.

Hitech City Total area 150 acres, Super built up area 11mn sqft

DLF Cyber City Total area 128 acres, Super built up are 14mn sqft

CFLD IT hub was assumed to be of 13.5 mn sqft over an area of 150 acres.

The rents of commercial properties were studies in Gurgaon and Ghaziabad, and the value of Rs 97/sqft in Gurgaon and Rs 66/sqft in Ghaziabad was selected.

Future cashflows, incremented 15% every three years were calculated, starting from 2028 to 2038.

The IRR was calculated on the basis of the cash inflows and outflows for period 2028-2038.

Assumptions made

The earnings reported are before taxes and interest.

Cost of capital of opening a hub in Gurgaon and Ghaziabad are same.

100% occupancy at all times and no depreciation over 10 years.

Market Research • Major Infrastructure Projects in NCR • Gurgaon: Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor,

Market Research

Major Infrastructure Projects in NCR

Market Research • Major Infrastructure Projects in NCR • Gurgaon: Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor,

Gurgaon: Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor, Kundli-Manesar-Palwal Expressway, Dwarka

Expressway, Rapid Metro Rail Gurgaon, IMT Sohna, Gurgaon-Faridabad MRT

Ghaziabad: Faridabad-Noida-Ghaziabad Corridor, Dilshad Garden-Ghaziabad MRT

Faridabad: Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor, Faridabad-Noida-Ghaziabad Corridor, Gurgaon-

Faridabad MRT

Noida: Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor, Faridabad-Noida-Ghaziabad Corridor, Gurgaon- Faridabad MRT

Sonipat: Kundli-Manesar-Palwal Expressway, Wanda Industrial New City

Jhajjar: Reliance Model Economic Town, Panasonic Refrigeration Plant

Rohtak: Maruti R&D Centre

Market Research | Approach • Calculation of Market Value of Land using the sales comparison

Market Research | Approach

Market Research | Approach • Calculation of Market Value of Land using the sales comparison approach

Calculation of Market Value of Land using the sales comparison approach

The comparison sales approach rests on the principle of substitution

No commodity has a value greater in comparison to similar commodity offering similar utility and similar functions

Market value of land price depends on a matrix of significant factors

Social infrastructure like healthcare, education centres and religious institutions

Connectivity in form of roads, railway and airports

Demographic profile, participation of population in work force

Historical price timeseries and NHB Residex (Assessment Prices) trends

Historical GDP statistics

Assume no variation in certain factors across NCR in valuation of land price

Interest rates

Exchange rates

Purchasing power parity

Taxes

Random Forest # Tech parks within 20km # Bus Stops within 10km # Liquor stores

Random Forest

# Tech parks within 20km

# Bus Stops within 10km

# Liquor stores within 10km

# Post offices within 10km

Distance to nearest Railway station

# Universities within 20km

YoY Price change for 2016

# Hospitals within 20km

# Temples within 3km

# Mosques within 10km

# Grocery shops within 3 km Resident Density

# Schools within 20km

# Banks within 5km Distance to nearest shopping mall

# Gas stations within 20 km # Government offices within 20 km

# Amusement parks within 10 km

# Police stations within 20km

YoY Price change for 2015

YoY Price change for 2014 Location

# Church within 5km

10 km # Police stations within 20km YoY Price change for 2015 YoY Price change for
10 km # Police stations within 20km YoY Price change for 2015 YoY Price change for
Model I – Qualitative Study | News : NDTV Study real estate news from two
Model I – Qualitative Study | News : NDTV Study real estate news from two

Model I Qualitative Study | News : NDTV

Study real estate news from two biggest NEWS channels in India to identify key trends and market sentiment

Data Source| NDTV & Economic Times

Duration | Apr’2016 – Sep’17

Method | Web Crawling

199 News articles were scrapped from NDTV Real Estate News website

articles were scrapped from NDTV Real Estate News website NDTV Network Analysis Housing for All -
articles were scrapped from NDTV Real Estate News website NDTV Network Analysis Housing for All -
articles were scrapped from NDTV Real Estate News website NDTV Network Analysis Housing for All -
articles were scrapped from NDTV Real Estate News website NDTV Network Analysis Housing for All -
articles were scrapped from NDTV Real Estate News website NDTV Network Analysis Housing for All -

NDTV Network Analysis

Housing for All - Improving home ownership through better affordability RBI's As India's companies repo largest rate reality expand, cut impact firm office DLF Indian space Ltd Real investing is attracting Estate 3500 market investment cr INR in 2017 in NCR region

Estate 3500 market investment cr INR in 2017 in NCR region Negative Positive NDTV Sentiment Analysis
Negative Positive
Negative
Positive

NDTV Sentiment Analysis

Significant Private New Tax Equity rule's Investment firms to clean are momentum up zeroing Real Estate in on in the Real Business real Estate estate sector sector across NCR region cr INR in 2017 in NCR region Negative Positive NDTV Sentiment Analysis Complaints increase with rise
to clean are momentum up zeroing Real Estate in on in the Real Business real Estate
to clean are momentum up zeroing Real Estate in on in the Real Business real Estate

Complaints increase with rise in Builder fraud

NCR - Growth Forecast Land Price Predictions from Time Series Forecasts Infrastructure Growth Predictions from

NCR - Growth Forecast

Land Price Predictions from Time Series Forecasts

Forecast Land Price Predictions from Time Series Forecasts Infrastructure Growth Predictions from Research • Ease of
Forecast Land Price Predictions from Time Series Forecasts Infrastructure Growth Predictions from Research • Ease of

Infrastructure Growth Predictions from Research

Ease of doing business

Gurgaon ranked higher than Noida and Delhi in issuing construction permits

Transport Connectivity around NCR

Multi modal aviation hub to be established along Greater Noida Airport as part of Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor(DMIC)

Road Development around NCR

DMIC to be developed around Faridabad- Palwal area

Faridabad pegged to receive $414.8 Mi under JNNURM scheme of Govt. of India

Faridabad and Gurgaon regions towards the south of Delhi-NCR are expected to witness the steep growth in land prices and infrastructure development over the next few years

Model I – Cross Sectional Data | Partial Dependency Plots Plots show strength of relationship
Model I – Cross Sectional Data | Partial Dependency Plots Plots show strength of relationship

Model I Cross Sectional Data | Partial Dependency Plots

Plots show strength of relationship between land price and significant factors

PriceAverage
PriceAverage

Number of Post offices within 10 km

PriceAverage
PriceAverage

Number of Liquor stores within 10 km

10 km PriceAverage Number of Liquor stores within 10 km Number of Bus Stops within 10

Number of Bus Stops within 10 km

Liquor stores within 10 km Number of Bus Stops within 10 km Number of Tech Parks

Number of Tech Parks (Corporate hubs) within 20 km

*Refer Appendix for other plots

Model I – Cross Sectional Data Partial Dependency Plots PriceAverage Number of Schools Within 20Km

Model I Cross Sectional Data

Partial Dependency Plots

PriceAverage
PriceAverage

Number of Schools Within 20Km

PriceAverage
PriceAverage

Number of Hospitals Within 20km

Within 20Km PriceAverage Number of Hospitals Within 20km Distance to nearest Railway station Number of Govt
Within 20Km PriceAverage Number of Hospitals Within 20km Distance to nearest Railway station Number of Govt

Distance to nearest Railway station

20Km PriceAverage Number of Hospitals Within 20km Distance to nearest Railway station Number of Govt Office

Number of Govt Office Within 20km

Model I – Cross Sectional Data Partial Dependency Plots PriceAverage Number of Gas Stations Within

Model I Cross Sectional Data

Partial Dependency Plots

PriceAverage
PriceAverage

Number of Gas Stations Within 20Km

PriceAverage
PriceAverage

Number of Hindu Temple Within 3Km

Within 20Km PriceAverage Number of Hindu Temple Within 3Km Number of Church Within 10km Number of
Within 20Km PriceAverage Number of Hindu Temple Within 3Km Number of Church Within 10km Number of

Number of Church Within 10km

Within 20Km PriceAverage Number of Hindu Temple Within 3Km Number of Church Within 10km Number of

Number of University Within 20Km

Model I – Cross Sectional Data Partial Dependency Plots PriceAverage Number of Mosques Within 10Km

Model I Cross Sectional Data

Partial Dependency Plots

PriceAverage
PriceAverage

Number of Mosques Within 10Km

PriceAverage
PriceAverage

Number of Grocery Shops Within 3Km

Within 10Km PriceAverage Number of Grocery Shops Within 3Km Number of Bank Within 5km Distance to
Within 10Km PriceAverage Number of Grocery Shops Within 3Km Number of Bank Within 5km Distance to

Number of Bank Within 5km

Within 10Km PriceAverage Number of Grocery Shops Within 3Km Number of Bank Within 5km Distance to

Distance to Nearest Shopping Mall