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Climate Change Division

Science Related Activities

R.R. Rashmi, AS (9910195285)

R.S. Prasad, JS (8130676464)

J.R. Bhatt, Adviser (9810277008)

Ajay Raghava, Deputy Director (9810266823)

Lokesh Chandra Dube, Programme Officer (9811722675)


Global Scenario
 CO2 in atmosphere: 401 ppm in 2014 from 298 ppm in 1901

 Global mean surface temp. increased by 0.89oC between 1901 and 2012.

 Global mean sea level increased by 0.19 m between 1901 and 2010.

Key Findings 5th Assessment Report (2014)

 Most of the growth from middle income countries like China and India

 Per capita emissions still low in most developing countries; lot more growth in
emissions expected under business as usual

 To limit increase in temperature to 2o C relative to preindustrial level, GHG


emissions at global level to be reduced by 40-70% compared with 2010 by 2050
and near zero by 2100
Projected impacts on India
Increase in extreme rainfall events, mean and extreme precipitation
during monsoon

Changes in more than 1/3rd of forest area by 2100, mostly from one
forest type to another

Reduction in monsoon sorghum yield by 2 to 14% by 2020, with


worsening yields by 2050 and 2080

Reduction in wheat yields in Indo-Gangetic Plains

Estimated countrywide agricultural loss (more than US$7 billion) in


2030; severely affect income of 10% population

Extreme events are expected to be more catastrophic for east


coast.
Global Emissions in 2014

CO2 Emissions/year Emission of CO2 per Capita


Country
(Billion Tons) (Tons/Person)

China 10.59 7.6

United States 5.33 16.5

EU-28 3.42 6.7

India 2.34 1.8

Russia 1.77 12.4

Japan 1.28 10.1

Germany 0.770 9.3

Source: Trends in Global CO2 Emissions 2015 Report. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)
Historical Emissions & Carbon Space

 Historical emissions since 1750s resulted in global temp. rise by 0.85° C

 Cumulative historical emissions in 2009 (1850 as base year):

USA 29%
Other Developed countries 45%
China 10%
Other Emerging Economies 9%
India 3%

 Limiting future climate change require substantial and sustained reductions


in emissions
National Communications
INC (2004): GHG Inventory of 1994 (1.23 billion tonne
CO2e, with LULUCF)
SNC (2012): GHG Inventory of 2000 (1.30 billion tonne
CO2e, with LULUCF), 5.7% increase from 1994.
Highlights of BUR-1
BUR-I (2015): GHG Inventory of 2010 (1.88 billion
tonne CO2e, with LULUCF), 45% increase from 2000.
Forest sector net sink; neutralized 12% emissions
Per capita emission 1.56 mt CO2e
12% reduction in emission intensity between 2005 and
2010. 6
India’s GHG Emissions Sector-Wise

1994

2010
Waste
Agriculture 3%
18%

IPPU
8%
Energy
71%
Climate Change Action Programme
Central Sector Scheme - Approved Cost Rs. 290 cr in 2014

Scheme Objectives:
Build and support capacity at Central & State levels to assess climate change,
formulate adequate response measures and implement relevant activities
Create and strengthen scientific & analytical capacity for assessment of climate
change in the country
Establish appropriate institutional framework for scientific & policy initiatives
Implementation of climate related actions in the context of sustainable
development

Scheme components:
Long Term Ecological Observatories (LTEO)
National Carbonaceous Aerosol Programme (NCAP)
Coordinated Studies on Climate Change for North East region (CSCCNER)
National Institute for Climate Change Studies and Action (NICCSA) 8
Long Term Ecological Observatories (LTEO) Programme

Objective:- Create a network of field sites for undertaking


observations to study effects of climate change
Total outlay:- Rs. 40 crore for five year

Eight sites
Western Himalaya,
Eastern Himalaya,
North-Western Arid Zone,
Central Indian Forests,
Western Ghats,
Andaman & Nicobar Islands,
Jammu & Kashmir, and
Sundarbans
Different agencies to conduct studies on identified themes across
these sites
Outcome/ Output:
Report on various biological indicators in the selected ecosystems.
National Carbonaceous Aerosols Programme

Objectives
 Understand role of carbonaceous aerosols in regional climate change over India using
source measurement, modelling and impact analysis
 Developing national carbonaceous aerosols emission inventory, emission measurement
in four sectors (residential, diesel transport, agriculture field burning & brick production)
 Modelling for source apportionment and regional transport
 Understanding influence on clouds & rainfall
Consortium of 17 institutes implementing at cost of Rs 55.57 crore

Outputs/Outcomes:-

• Emissions inventory, data portal


• Source apportionment
• Emission factors
• Long term simulations for rainfall
• Impact on cloud properties
• Deposition in subcontinent and Himalayas
Coordinated Studies on Climate Change in North Eastern Region

Objectives:-
 Undertake studies on impacts of Climate Change in North Eastern India;
 Create a knowledge base for monitoring CC in NER owing to its special geographical and
ecological context
 Bridge existing gap in knowledge on CC impact, adaptation and mitigation
 Development of mitigation & adaptation options for the region
Scope of Operation:-
 Focus Areas:
 Forests
 Biodiversity
 Water
 Agriculture
 Human Settlements
Outputs/Outcomes:-
Report will include
• impacts of climate change in North Eastern States on forests, biodiversity,
water, agriculture & human settlements, and
• mitigation & adaptation options for the region
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National Institute on Climate Change Studies & Actions

Cabinet approval for NICSSA


Structure and functions of the Institute to be decided by
Committee of Secretaries – Note submitted
Objective- Carry out scientific, socio-economic, technical and
analytical studies and coordinate as a national apex institution
with all institutions on research and other scientific activities
(including preparation of inventories, NATCOM, BUR etc.)
Support capacity building and training
Apex institution to support and inform the Government & public in
the area of climate change
‘PARAMPARA’
released by Prime Minister at COP21 in Paris

First of its kind catalogue with 194 examples of traditional


climate friendly practices of India along with another 52
write-ups, arranged sector wise in 8 sections.
Climate friendly lifestyle brochure
released at COP21 in Paris

• Habitat and Culture


• Food and Agriculture
• Transportation
• Energy and Water
• Building and
Construction
• Waste Management
• Health and Yoga
• Nature Conservation
Climate Change Outreach and Awareness

Science Express Climate Action Special Train


Hand-holding support to Centre for Environment Education,
Ahmedabad for ensuring flawless script of the exhibits of 205 panels
of the 8 coaches, both in English and Hindi.

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Activities planned
Preparation of Third National Communication
Preparation of Second and Third Biennial Update Reports
Preparation of document ‘India: emission trends’
Launch of LTEO programme
Launch of CCAP programme
Increasing Indian participation in IPCC

Issues likely to be raised in the Parliament


Glacier melting
Changing monsoon
Impacts of Climate Change

16
THANK YOU
Scope of IPCC
IPCC prepares

Assessment Methodology Special report Technical papers Supporting


reports reports material
First IPCC Assessment Report (1990) : decisive role in leading to creation of
the UNFCCC
Second Assessment Report (1995): provided important material to adoption
of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997
Third Assessment Report (2001)
Fourth Assessment Report (2007): attention to the integration of climate
change sustainable development, mitigation and adaptation
Fifth Assessment report (2014)
Observed impacts of climate change in
India (indicators of Climate Change)
Between 34% and 39% of India’s forests are expected to change in
character by 2085 as a consequence of climate change (Chaturvedi
et al. 2011).
There is increasing evidence that declining rainfall trend in southern
Western Ghats (Krishnan et al. 2013) is likely to impact the tropical
evergreen forests through loss of tree diversity.
A major increase in the alien invasive plant, Lantana camara, in
forests of southern India beginning around 2003, has been shown to
be related to a combination of a prolonged drought and intense fire
during this period (Ramaswamy and Sukumar 2013).
In Sikkim, many endemic plant species have migrated to higher
elevation in two alpine valleys between the mid-19th century and
the present (Telwala et al. 2013). Although biodiversity has not yet
suffered, further upward migration could cause contraction of the
distributional range of these plants and eventual extinction of some.
Observed Impacts of Climate Change in India
Due to an increase in the minimum temperature of upstream waters
of Ganges river by 1.5 °C over a 30-year period, the Indian Major Carps
suffered breeding decline (Vass et al. 2009).
The El Nino of 1997 increased sea surface temperatures by several
degrees in the Indian Ocean, resulting in massive die off or bleaching
of coral reefs (Arthur 2000). The more southerly species-rich reefs
suffered greater declines than those further north as in the Gulf of
Kutch that were better adapted to saline and higher temperature
waters.
With increased frequency of EL Nino and drought conditions, there will
be increase in the frequency and intensity of wildlife-human conflicts.
Elephants have dispersed from natural habitats to human-production
landscapes during severe droughts. In 1982-83 this happened from
Tamil Nadu to Andhra Pradesh (where elephants had not been present
for several hundred years), and in 1986-87 from Jharkhand in southern
West Bengal. These conflicts are still perpetuating (Sukumar 1996 and
Sukumar 2016).
Coordinated Studies on Climate Change for North
East region (CSCCNE)

Climate change projections using the latest climate change


models, for different sectors
State Action Plan and Adaptation Plan to be based on improved
predictions
Develop Incremental (short term) and Transformational (long
term resilience) Adaptation strategies
Develop CC impact and “Inherent Vulnerability Profiles” at
District and Block levels
Evaluate the Current Developmental programs in light of
improved understanding of climate regimes
Develop a NE Climate Change Research Centre
 Socio-Economic Implications
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National Carbonaceous Aerosols Programme (NCAP)
(Black Carbon Research Initiative)
Specific objectives of the project, to be taken up in the first phase (2014-2019), are listed below:
Estimating emission magnitude and uncertainty of carbonaceous aerosols and co-emitted species from major source-sectors.
Deducing source influence on regional atmospheric abundance of carbonaceous aerosols with seasonal and spatial resolution.
Estimating the regional radiative impact of carbonaceous aerosols on sub-continental scales with seasonal and spatial
resolution and source/sector influence.
Understanding atmospheric processes and emission sectors influencing deposition of carbonaceous aerosols on target
ecosystems like the Himalaya.
Understanding carbonaceous aerosol alteration of clouds and rainfall.

S. No. Name of Institute


1 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay
2 Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur
3 Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi
4 Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Bhopal
5 Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Mohali
6 Bose Institute, Kolkata
7 University of Kashmir, Srinagar
8 Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra
9 Indian Institute of Hyderabad
10 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune
11 CSIR-North East Institute of Science & Technology
12 Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
13 National Physical Laboratory (NPL)
14 CSIR-Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore
15 Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur
Comparison with other Developing countries Emissions, Gg

Brazil South Africa India


China Indonesia

7465862.

5658642.

4057617.

1757352.
1523766.
1214248.
759326. 862809. 845119.
637139. 554333. 531398.
379837. 334191. 461178.

1994 2000 2005


Developed countries emissions (Gg)
80,00,000
7228293.1559
7075609.4145

6499923.3732

60,00,000
5198540.6489 5121651.8856 5178201.0348

4126525.6866 4156404.2456 4183082.7489


40,00,000

2291944.0841
2053320.981 2135398.1611
20,00,000

-
1994 2000 2005

EU15 EU28 USA Russian Federation


Comparison with reported GHG Emissions of other countries

80,00,000

60,00,000
GHG emissions in Gg CO2e

Brazil

40,00,000 South Africa

India

China

Indonesia
20,00,000

-
1994 2000 2005
Year
Per capita GHG emissions
Rank Country GHG emissions (t CO2e per capita), 2000

1 Qatar 67.9
2 UAE 36.1
3 Kuwait 31.6
4 Australia 25.6
5 Bahrain 24.8
6 USA 24.5
7 Canada 22.1
22 Russia 13.2
46 South Africa 9.5
83 Brazil 5.0
99 China 3.9
140 India 1.9
WORLD 5.6
Per capita GHG emissions (tonnes CO2e)

1994 2000 2010


US 21.43 22.54 18.92
Brazil 9.53 11.96 7.10
Russia 14.83 11.24 11.53
China 2.91 4.32 9.35
India 1.31 1.25 1.56
South
Africa 8.91 9.48 10.07