India Strategy March 2017

8th March 2017 Stewart & Mackertich Research 1

Contents
Indian Market in Retrospect 03
Money Flow 04
FII Data for Equity and Debt 05
Mutual Fund Flows 06
Global Market Performance 07
Global Market Valuation 08
MSCI India Performance Against Other Emerging Markets 09
MSCI Sectoral Performance 10
Twin Pillars of Emerging Markets 11
Indias Key Economic Indicators 12
Key Market Indicators 13
Auto Sales Data (Domestic) 14
Air Traffic Data 15
Foreign Tourist Arrivals 16
Power Generation 17
Road Development Data 19
Outlook 20
Nifty50 Stocks Valuations 21
Global Key Economic Indicators and Developments 26
Trade Balance & Currency 27
LME Base Metals 28
Key Developments during the month 29
Sectoral Update 30
Agriculture 31
Infrastructure 34
Monthly Technical Outlook 37
Model Portfolio of Stewart & Mackertich 39
Team Profile 43
Disclaimer 44

2
Indian Market in Retrospect
Price Movement of Nifty & CNX 500
During the month of February 2017, Indian stock market witnessed a volatile session with an
upward bias, which led to a strong closing of Nifty at 8879.60 points with a gain of 3.72% over
106
the previous month. The rally in the market was fueled by global and domestic factors. Global
105
factors included a strong rally in the US, markets rebound in key commodity prices. Domestic
104
factors included growth oriented Union Budget and better than expected results from some
103
key companies in latest quarter, limiting the impact of demonetization earlier feared.
102

The Q3 FY2017 earnings were less disappointing than earlier believed as investors feared the 101

100
demonetization would severely impact earnings. However, due to fewer negative surprises,
99
Indian markets saw a renewed buying across sectors.
98

Out of the gain of 3.72% points in Nifty during the month of February 2017, the highest 97

10-Feb-17

12-Feb-17

14-Feb-17

16-Feb-17

18-Feb-17

20-Feb-17

22-Feb-17

24-Feb-17

26-Feb-17

28-Feb-17
31-Jan-17

2-Feb-17

4-Feb-17

6-Feb-17

8-Feb-17
gainers were BHEL (18.53%), RIL (18.45%), TCS (10.60%) and Tech Mahindra (10.44%). The
announcement of Ideas merger with Vodafone fueled the Ideas stock along with other
telecom companies. The announcement regarding the end of the Jios free offer from April 1, Nifty CNX 500

2017 led to a significant upgrades in the company, which led to ~18 gains in RIL.

Indian GDP Data for the quarter ending December 2016, came at 7.1% against the consensus BSE Sectoral Performance
Bloomberg estimates of 6.4%. Clearly, this was better than expected as the fallout from
demonetization was expected to have limited the GDP growth to the larger extent. 112
110
BSE Realty sector was the best performer among the sector specific indices as most of the 108
106
measures announced in the Union Budget 2017-18 were related to the housing sector. The 104
infrastructure status announced in the budget for low cost housing aided interest in realty 102
100
stocks. The BSE IT sector outperformed on the back of slew of buybacks announced by the
98
leading IT companies and also compelling valuations. 96
94
Monthly returns for major BSE sectoral indices 92
90

10-Feb-17

12-Feb-17

14-Feb-17

16-Feb-17

18-Feb-17

20-Feb-17

22-Feb-17

24-Feb-17

26-Feb-17

28-Feb-17
31-Jan-17

2-Feb-17

4-Feb-17

6-Feb-17

8-Feb-17
IT: 8.24% Oil & Gas: 5.42%
BSE IT BSE Realty BSE Banks BSE Power
Realty: 9.15% Auto: -1.48%
BSE Oil& Gas BSE Auto BSE Metal
Bank: 5.25% Metal: 1.89%
Power: 1.29%
Source: Bloomberg and SMIFS Research (Data as on Feb 28, 2017)

3
 Smart Money

Money Flow

FIIs were the net buyers of INR10485.18 Crores during the month of February
2017.

DIIs were net buyers of INR935.26 Crores in the month of February 2017 and
during AprilFebruary FY 2017, however they were the net buyers of The FII inflow rebounded on the
The aggregated FII
back of favorable union budget
INR34327.15 Crores. reached to a peak in
announcement
October 2016, as there
In the aggregate FII Flow Year-to-date chart, it is been observed that on the was no hint of Fed Rate
backdrop of no interest hike and strong performance by Indian stock market Hike
attracted FIIs till October, 2016. However, the demonetization announcement and FII outflow triggered significantly,
due to demonetization effect and
hints of Feds rate hike, pushed FII to initiate outflow.
also a favorable Fed rate hike in
December 2016
However, favorable budget by Government of India in the month of February and
other positive factors again attracted FIIs to invest. This is expected to continue
further, until the Fed keeps the rate unchanged.

Source: Bloomberg

FII and DII Net Flow , MoM change (INR in Crores) FII and DII Flow, YoY change (INR in Crores)

12,000.00
10,485.18 15000
10,000.00
10485.18 10491.61
8,000.00 10000
5,980.18
6,000.00
5000
4,000.00
935.26
2,000.00 0
FIIs DIIs
-
FII Equity FII Debt -5000
(46.33)
(2,000.00)

(4,000.00)
(2,611.40) -7987.49
-10000

Jan'17 Feb'17 Feb'2017 Feb'2016

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

4
FII Data for Equity and Debt

FII Equity and FII Debt Flow (February, 2016-February, 2017)

FIIs have been net buyers in the month of February 2017. They bought
equities worth INR10485.18 Crores during the month. 30,000.00

25,000.00
In the last four consecutive months till January 2017, the FIIs were the 20,000.00

net sellers in the equity segment. However, on the back of positive 15,000.00

sentiment in the Indian economy, the inflow have rebounded. 10,000.00

5,000.00

In the debt segment, there are more buyers than sellers. In the month -

Aug'16
Feb'16

Sep'16

Feb'17
Mar'16

May'16

Oct'16

Jan'17
Nov'16

Dec'16
Apr'16

Jun'16

Jul'16
of February 2017, they were the net buyers of worth of INR5980.19 (5,000.00)

(10,000.00)
Crores.
(15,000.00)

Overseas investors have pumped in over INR14,600 crore into the (20,000.00)

(25,000.00)
Indian capital markets this month so far, enthused by clarity on FPI
FII Equity FII Debt
taxation.
Aggregated FII Equity and FII Debt Flow (April, 2016-February, 2017)
The latest inflow followed a net pullout of INR80,310 crore from equity
1200000
and debt together in the past four months (October-January). Prior to
that, FPIs had invested over INR20,000 crore in the capital market in 1000000
September 2016. 800000

600000

400000

200000

0
FII Equity FII Debt

Gross Purchase Gross Sales

Source: Bloomberg and SMIFS Research (Data as on Feb 28, 2017)

5
Mutual Fund Flows
MFDebt (Gross Purchase and Gross Sales)

250,000.00
In the month of February, 2017, under Mutual Fund investment, it has been
observed that there were more buyers than sellers. In both segment, Equity and 200,000.00

Debt, FIIs and DIIs invested more, signifying the expectation over long-term 150,000.00
market potential are increasing through the month. However, considering the YTD
100,000.00
data, FIIs and DIIs are more inclined to invest in Equity rather than Debt.
50,000.00

The Life Insurance Corporation Of India (LIC) has for the first time announced their 0.00

Feb'17
Feb'16

Sep'16
Aug'16
Mar'16

May'16

Oct'16

Jan'17
Nov'16

Dec'16
Jul'16
Apr'16

Jun'16
quarterly financial statement. They have highlighted some of the key facts which
are stated below - Gross Purchase Gross Sales

LICs total aggregated corpus stood at INR23 trillion at the end of January 2017, which
is the highest managed amount as compared to any other entity. MFEquity (Gross Purchase and Gross Sales)

Taking 43 leading mutual fund houses together, they manage INR18 trillion at the end
50,000.00
of January 2017, as stated by the company. 45,000.00
40,000.00
35,000.00

The monthly investments through SIP route in equity mutual funds rose by about 30,000.00

35 per cent in value terms so far in this financial year. The monthly SIP value has 25,000.00
20,000.00
doubled in the last two years and stood at INR3,663 crores for January. Hence, it
15,000.00
signifies that the investments through mutual funds are gaining traction. 10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00

Aug'16
Feb'16

Sep'16

Feb'17
Mar'16

May'16

Oct'16

Jan'17
Nov'16

Dec'16
Jul'16
Apr'16

Jun'16
The Mutual Fund managers purchased stocks worth of more than INR2000 crores,
during the month of February, making seventh consecutive months of inflow. The Gross Purchase Gross Sales
positive inflow came through the active participation of retails investors.
Source: Bloomberg and SMIFS Research (Data as on Feb 28, 2017)
6
Global Market Performance

Particulars 1M% 3M% 6M% 1Yr% 3Yr%

DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 4.90 8.96 13.24 26.16 27.67
NASDAQ 4.40 10.11 12.44 28.61 36.07
S&P 500 INDEX 3.99 7.77 9.16 22.64 27.44
FTSE 100 INDEX 2.23 6.98 6.95 19.03 6.51
CAC 40 INDEX 1.96 5.76 9.07 11.22 9.81
DAX INDEX 2.23 10.83 11.34 24.20 21.96
Mexico IPC INDEX 0.74 4.49 -0.40 8.31 22.09
BRAZIL BOVESPA INDEX 0.95 8.29 15.50 60.27 40.03
RUSSIAN RTS INDEX -5.46 6.95 15.92 43.16 -13.08
NIKKEI 225 0.41 4.43 13.21 19.29 28.82
HANG SENG INDEX 1.63 4.17 3.32 24.22 3.96
TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX 3.20 6.46 6.78 15.92 12.86
SHCOMP SHANGHAI INDEX 2.61 -0.28 5.06 20.60 57.65
KOSPI INDEX 1.16 5.45 2.80 9.13 5.64
KLCI INDEX 1.33 4.61 0.94 2.36 7.73
JCI INDEX 1.75 4.62 0.01 12.91 16.59
PCOMP INDEX -0.24 6.35 -7.39 8.11 12.25
SET INDEX -1.13 3.27 0.72 17.05 17.67
SENSEX 3.93 7.84 1.02 24.96 36.09
NIFTY 3.72 7.97 1.06 27.09 41.46

Source: Bloomberg and SMIFS Research (Data as on Feb 28, 2017)

7
Global Markets Valuation

TTM EPS PE Ratio FY17E FY17E PE FY18E EPS FY18E Current BV PB Ratio FY17E BVPS FY17E FY18EBVPS FY18E
EPS PE PB PB
Indian Markets
Sensex 1348.19 21.32 1434.44 20.04 1722.21 16.69 10140.49 2.83 10541.94 2.73 11696.78 2.46
NIFTY 407.35 21.80 437.36 20.30 528.79 16.79 3138.71 2.83 3262.81 2.72 3633.96 2.44
US Markets
DOW JONES 1080.81 19.28 1199.70 17.37 1325.22 15.72 5833.27 3.57 6062.65 3.44 6447.59 3.23
NASDAQ 137.16 42.74 262.03 22.37 306.46 19.13 1502.53 3.90 1607.28 3.65 1772.68 3.31
S & P 500 108.44 21.85 129.54 18.29 145.01 16.34 766.48 3.09 825.28 2.87 877.04 2.70
MEXICO 1964.32 24.10 2721.68 17.40 3130.51 15.13 19053.43 2.49 20586.04 2.30 22507.27 2.10
BRAZIL 1778.17 37.50 5167.08 12.96 6020.00 11.12 39634.11 1.68 42369.91 1.57 44982.84 1.47
European Markets
FTSE 183.12 39.62 491.11 14.77 529.45 13.70 3888.68 1.87 3984.93 1.82 4142.31 1.75
CAC 230.55 20.99 339.06 14.27 376.37 12.86 3368.68 1.44 3518.17 1.38 3700.48 1.31
DAX 680.58 17.32 864.33 13.64 940.89 12.53 6562.41 1.80 7135.61 1.65 7637.52 1.54
Russian RTS 116.77 9.44 178.01 6.19 200.80 5.49 1322.67 0.83 1532.12 0.72 1690.03 0.65
Asian Markets
Nikkei 850.81 22.47 1046.37 18.27 1142.13 16.74 11120.70 1.72 11318.06 1.69 12094.93 1.58
Hang Seng 1800.07 13.19 1994.40 11.90 2181.62 10.88 19225.25 1.23 20457.02 1.16 21811.54 1.09
Singapore 233.34 13.27 215.35 14.38 231.35 13.38 2610.33 1.19 2686.50 1.15 2806.59 1.10
Shanghai 174.13 18.62 236.60 13.70 268.87 12.06 1782.78 1.82 2225.13 1.46 2442.33 1.33
Kospi 112.54 18.59 212.38 9.85 226.61 9.23 2236.71 0.94 2193.25 0.95 2376.23 0.88
Philippine SE 368.68 19.56 416.50 17.32 464.44 15.53 3084.35 2.34 3405.89 2.12 3742.83 1.93

Data as on 28th February 2017

8
MSCI India Performance Against Other Emerging Markets

MSCI India is quoting a PE ratio of 22.08, at par with MSCI World Index which is quoting a PE of 21.86. It trades at a significant premium to MSCI Emerging Market
Index which is trading at a PE of 15.74. (Exhibit:1)

Accelerating growth in emerging market led by Asia has led to higher relative returns in February by MSCI India(4.01%), MSCI EM(2.98%) over MSCI World Index
(2.58%). (Exhibit:2)

Grasim Industries has been added in MSCI Emerging Market index effective 1st March 2017 and weightage of Tech Mahindra has been increased in MSCI India
Index.

India has seen a sharp V shape recovery. The GDP of 7% for the third quarter has already beaten the estimates of 6.4%. IMF in its latest assessment said that Indias
economic growth will rebound in the next fiscal, a month after it had trimmed the growth estimate for the current financial year to 6.6% from 7.6%. It added that
GST can boost Indias economic growth to over 8%. The global growth forecast is estimated at 3.4%.

There seems plethora of opportunities in emerging markets once the reforms takes place. The strong and strengthening dollar with Fed rate hike outlook remains a
challenge to the emerging countries, however rupee has been resilient against dollar which justifies the premium of MSCI India over MSCI EM.

Exhibit 1: India Premium to MSCI EM & MSCI World Exhibit 2: Relative Returns

25 5%
23
21 4%
19
17 3%
15 MSCI IN MSCI EM
13 2%
MSCI EM MSCI IN
11
MSCI World 1% MSCI World
9
7 0%
5
Feb-14

Feb-15

Feb-16

Feb-17
Aug-14
Oct-14

Aug-15
Oct-15

Aug-16
Oct-16
Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16
Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16
Dec-14

Dec-16
Dec-15

9
MSCI Sectoral Performance

Indias energy sector has outperformed its global peers convincingly over the last year. In the past month where USA and Global peers registered negative returns,
Indias energy sector showcased gains of 11.41%. The next best performer was the IT sector followed by Telecom. The significant mergers of Vodafone-Idea, Airtel
-Telenor led the gains in Indian Telecom sector.

The underperformers were the Pharma, Industrial and Utility sector which gained 3.30%, 2.38% and 1.29% respectively against returns of 5.67%,2.49%,3.13%
from Global peers.

Exhibit:1

INDIA USA GLOBAL

1M% 3M% 1Yr% 1M% 3M% 1Yr% 1M% 3M% 1Yr%
Consumer Staple 2.99 8.72 17.39 4.57 8.94 8.52 4.12 8.77 6.52

Energy 11.41 17.76 32.47 (2.45) (4.21) 22.18 (2.40) (2.03) 21.04

Finance 3.93 8.91 37.26 5.24 9.40 43.61 2.41 8.64 31.89

Health Care 3.30 (3.88) (5.68) 6.48 9.66 14.40 5.67 9.55 9.24

Industrial 2.38 9.50 32.82 3.73 5.56 25.96 2.49 6.10 21.47

IT 8.98 5.58 0.83 5.36 11.52 31.99 4.93 11.18 30.38

Material 0.19 7.22 68.37 0.64 5.26 25.64 (0.76) 7.46 33.62

Telecom 1.54 4.44 1.29 0.13 4.87 7.38 0.26 6.33 1.70

Utility 1.29 8.65 48.13 3.69 9.43 10.80 3.13 8.06 6.02

Data as on 28th February 2017

10
 Twin Pillars of Emerging Markets
PMI
Indicating further improvement in manufacturing sentiment, the Nikkei India India China
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 50.7 in February 2017 from
Feb 17 50.7 51.6
50.4 in January 17. The index had signaled manufacturing contraction in December
16, the first full month after the November 8 demonetization announcement, with a Jan 17 50.4 51.3
reading of 49.6.
Dec 16 49.6 51.4

Nov 16 52.3 51.7

During the month of February 17, total volume of incoming new work increased for
Oct 16 54.4 51.2
the second time in a row, whereas new export orders expanded for the first time
since November 2016. Rates of growth for both production and order books picked Sep 16 52.1 50.4
up marginally since January. On jobs front, the PMI survey showed a decline in Aug 16 52.6 50.4
manufacturing employment though the rate of job losses was marginal overall.
Jul16 51.8 49.9

Jun 16 51.7 50.0

On the other hand, China's official Manufacturing PMI continued to expand in
May 16 50.7 50.1
February. The manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6 in February, up from 51.3 in
January. Chinas manufacturing firms continued to benefit from higher sales prices Apr 16 50.5 50.1
and a recovery in demand fueled by a construction boom.
Mar 16 52.4 50.2

A reading above 50 on the index denotes expansion while that below the mark
Relative Performance (%)
indicates contraction.
9%
6%
3%
Chinas domestic market (Shanghai composite) increased by 3.23% in the last one
0%
month, Chinas HSCEI also grew by 5.55% in February 2017. In comparison with China, -3%
Indias Nifty increased by 3.72% , partly led by global factors and partly led by
improved market sentiment post Union Budget 2017-18.

NIFTY HSCEI SHANGHAI

11
 Indias Key Economic Indicators

IIP Trend (YoY %) CPI & WPI Inflation Trend

12.00 12.00
10.00 10.00
8.00 8.00
6.00 6.00
4.00
4.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
-2.00
-2.00 -4.00
-4.00 -6.00
-6.00

WPI Inflation CPI Inflation

Export Trend (YoY %) Import Trend (YoY %)

35.00
25.00
15.00
5.00
-5.00
-15.00
-25.00
-35.00

12
 Key Market Indicators

Agro Cmdty Price %Ch1D %Ch5D %Ch1M %Ch3M %Ch1Yr Precious Metals Price %Ch1D %Ch5D %Ch1M %Ch3M %Ch1Yr
Coffee 141.95 0.60 6.52 6.61 7.16 14.06 Gold($/Oz) 1253.48 0.05 1.43 3.53 6.83 1.18
Cotton 76.58 0.60 1.22 1.30 6.27 32.58 Silver($/Oz) 18.30 0.16 1.77 4.21 10.70 22.77
Sugar 19.30 0.78 6.94 5.67 0.16 32.74
Wheat 439.75 0.23 2.22 1.44 5.84 13.22 Shipping Ind Index %Ch1D %Ch5D %Ch1M %Ch3M %Ch1Yr
Soybean 1025.25 0.32 1.16 0.87 2.26 16.01 Baltic Dry 878.00 0.34 12.85 9.75 27.08 166.87
Baltic Dirty 847.00 1.17 1.17 5.99 4.94 16.03
Forex Rate %Ch1D %Ch5D %Ch1M %Ch3M %Ch1Yr
INR 66.71 0.00 0.33 1.74 2.52 2.57 Energy Price %Ch1D %Ch5D %Ch1M %Ch3M %Ch1Yr
USD Index 100.96 0.17 0.40 1.46 0.53 2.80 NYMEX Crude 53.92 0.22 0.24 2.12 9.08 59.79
YUAN 6.87 0.03 0.22 0.22 0.30 4.61 Natural Gas 2.68 0.63 0.56 15.45 17.15 11.27
GBP 1.24 0.22 0.23 1.10 0.53 10.64
EUR 1.06 0.06 0.51 1.72 0.01 2.55
YEN 112.23 0.04 1.17 0.69 1.69 0.62 Bond Yld 10Y Yield %Ch1D %Ch5D %Ch1M %Ch3M %Ch1Yr
US 2.36 0.15 2.78 4.95 2.12 34.00
UK 1.17 1.57 5.50 20.60 15.36 16.51
LME Price %Ch1D %Ch5D %Ch1M %Ch3M %Ch1Yr
Brazil 4.82 1.30 1.93 4.54 12.01 26.30
Copper 5924.00 0.15 2.22 0.69 1.01 25.65
Japan 0.06 3.70 41.05 33.33 154.55 186.15
Aluminium 1899.50 0.73 0.56 4.64 8.10 20.45
Aus 2.72 0.41 2.79 2.05 0.93 14.18
Zinc 2800.75 0.86 2.97 2.16 0.20 59.63
India 6.87 0.07 0.61 7.37 8.65 11.68
Lead 2252.25 0.01 2.14 2.64 5.61 28.81

Data as on 28th February 2017

13
Auto Sales Data (Domestic)
Exhibit 1: Comparison of Commercial Vehicle sales (Jan16-Jan17)
After dipping sales in November and December 2016 due to demonetization, the commercial vehicle
sales have rebounded in the month of January 2017, but still it lags the aggregate sales data of the month
90,000
of October 2016. Also, the rural centric budget approach helped the automobile manufacturer to sell more
cars than earlier two months. In the Exhibit 1, both the passenger cars and commercial vehicle sales 80,000

showed recoils in the sales number. During the month of January, total commercial vehicle sold were 70,000
61,239 units, down by 14% Year-on-Year, however, Month-on-Month, it increased by 15%.
60,000

Considering the passenger vehicles sales for the month came at 265,320 units. On Year-ob-Year and Month 50,000
-on-Month basis, it increased by 14% and 16%, respectively. Major automobile manufacturing companies
40,000
launched some new models, which hit the market in the beginning of 2017 and many of them are lined up
this. 30,000

20,000
In February 2017 auto sales for the companies were not impressive. Maruti Suzuki sold 130280 cars during
the month of February, 2017, which were higher by 11% on YoY basis; however, it was down by 10% on 10,000

MoM basis. Ashok Leyland registered a growth of ~5% during the same period, on YoY basis. But 0

Aug'16
Feb'16

Mar'16

May'16

Oct'16
Jan'16

Jan'17
Nov'16
Sept'16

Dec'16
Jul'16
Apr'16

Jun'16
considering the MoM sales figure it was down by more than 5%. Tata Motors delineated marginal growth
in its total numbers of cars and commercial vehicle sold during the month. While considering two-wheeler
segment, Eicher Motors posted a strong YoY growth of ~19%, however, the MoM sales were down by 2%.
Source: Bloomberg
Despite decline in sales for auto companies, we consider the numbers are not disappointing as the month
of February had 28 days
Exhibit 2: Comparison of Passenger Vehicle sales (Jan16-Jan17)

Vehicle sales for the month of February 2017

300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
Feb'16

Aug'16
Mar'16

May'16
Jan'16

Jan'17
Oct'16
Sept'16

Dec'16
Jul'16

Nov'16
Apr'16

Jun'16
Source: Bloomberg
14
Air Traffic Data: India's domestic air traffic zoomed up 25% in January 2017

Market share position as on January, 2017

Indias domestic airlines carried 95.79 lakh passengers in January 2017,
against 76.55 lakhs passengers during the corresponding period of previous
Air Asia, 3%
year thereby registering a growth of 25% YoY. Others,
6.70%
Domestic air passenger volume growth YoY was as follows: Indigo: +40%, Air India, 14%

SpiceJet: +22%, Go Air:+27%, Air India: +11%, Jet Airway:+5.1%.

The overall passenger load factor (PLF) stood at 88.20% in Jan17. It remained
the same as the month prior, primarily due to the end-of-tourist season. Jet Airways, 15.50%

After reporting its highest ever load factor in Dec16 (93.7%), low-cost carrier
Indigo, 39.80%
SpiceJets Jan17 PLF declined marginally to 93.6%. In terms of PLF, Indigo, Go
Spice Jet, 12.80%
Air, Jet and Air India reported a load factor of 90%, 90.8%, 86%, 81.4%,
respectively.
Go Air,
Indigo continues to dominate the market with 38.90% share, marginally down 8.20%
from its previous months market share of 40.40%. Source: DGCA

SpiceJets market share, at 12.8%, was the same as the previous month. Jet
Airways reported a market share of 18%, consistently below 20% for 10th
consecutive month. Market share for Air India marginally improved to 13.9%,
Airline wise passenger growth from Jan16 to Jan17 (YoY, in %)
whereas GoAir's market share stood at 8.3%, it seems to have stabilized in 45

the 8-9% range. 40

35
India continues to be the fastest-growing country in the world in terms of air
30
passengers. The most remarkable aspect about the domestic aviation sector
25
is the widening gap between passenger growth and capacity growth.
20
Passenger growth has been higher than the capacity growth for seven
15
consecutive months now. This bodes favorable supply demand dynamics for
10
the industry.
5

Air India Jet Airways Indigo Spice Jet Go Air

15
Foreign Tourist Arrivals
In January 2017, foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) in India grew 16.5% YoY to 9.83 lakhs. During January-December CY 2016, FTAs in India grew 11% YoY to 88.90
lakhs.

Foreign exchange earnings (FEEs) during the month of January 2017 were INR16,097 crore as compared to INR13,669 crore in January 2016 and INR12,100 crore
in January 2015. The growth rate in FEEs in rupee terms during January 2017 over January 2016 was 17.8%.

Tourist Arrival Data (Jan 2016 - Jan 2017) Tourist Arrival Data (YoY)

12 20% 90 20
78.53
18% 80
69.7 71.14
10 67.94 15
16% 70 65.8
14% 60 55.75
8
12% 10
50
6 10%
40
8% 5
4 30
6%
20 0
4%
2
10
2%
0 0% 0 -5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Jan

Nov
Oct
Apr

Aug

Jan'17
Dec
Jun

Jul
Feb

Sep
Mar

May

FTA (lakhs) YoY growth (%) Tourist Arrivals (In Lakhs) YoY change (%)

Source: Open Government Data

Source: Open Government Data

16
Power Generation

Power Generation (GWH)

Category Jan-17 Jan-16 YoY(%) December-17 MoM(%) April 2016-Jan 2017 April 2015-Jan 2016 YoY(%)
Thermal 85856.36 82835.06 4.00% 85955.90 0.00% 824002.57 778009.17 6.00%
Nuclear 3039.19 3056.56 -1.00% 2860.05 6.00% 31293.60 30827.03 2.00%
Hydro 6330.29 6159.08 3.00% 6257.72 1.00% 107609.09 108304.36 -1.00%
Bhutan Imported 105.34 78.16 35.00% 177.93 -41.00% 5516.30 5159.15 7.00%
TOTAL 95331.18 92128.86 3.00%. 95251.60 0.00% 968421.56 922299.71 5.00%

Exhibit I Exhibit II

YoY Growth (Conventional Generation (in BU)

Source) FY17 937.3*
FY16 1107.8
TOTAL
FY15 1048.7
Bhutan Imp.
FY14 967.2
Hydro Jan'16
FY13 912.1
Nuclear Jan'17
FY12 876.9
Therma l FY11 811.1

0 50000 100000 150000 FY10 771.6

*Data as of 31st December 2016

17
Power Generation

Power Generation (GWH) Renewable Source

Category April 2016-Jan April 2015-Jan Power generation from conventional sources grew marginally
Jan-17 Jan-16 YoY(%) 2017 2016 YoY(%) to 95.33 BU in January 2017 from 95.25 in December 2016 and
Wind 1779.89 1498.01 19.00% 38851.46 28430.65 37.00% increased by 3 per cent YoY. On the other side generation from
Solar 1157.90 662.04 75.00% 9378.35 5181.10 81.00% renewable sources grew by 19 per cent in January 2017 YoY and
Biomass 333.48 355.56 -6.00% 3072.17 2685.71 14.00% Year to date it has increased by 26 per cent on YoY basis. Total
Bagasse 1781.57 1912.04 -7.00% 5852.12 7610.61 -23.00% Power generation which comprised of conventional and non-
Small Hydro 339.19 528.56 -36.00% 6898.45 7035.77 -9.00% conventional power sources stood at 937 BU for the period of
Others 50.51 19.60 158.00% 285.77 197.98 44.00% April-December 2016 which increased by approximately 6.5
Total 5442.54 4975.81 9% 64338.32 51141.82 26% percent from the corresponding period last fiscal year. As of
31st January 2017, the total installed Capacity is reported at
314642.32 MW. The 26 per cent increase in renewable energy
shows that India is efficiently working towards generating
electricity from renewable sources and producing clean energy.
Exhibit III With the various announcement in the Union Budget 2017-18
like Promoting clean energy, Solar capacity addition, higher
spending on rural electrification and lower import duty in
Renewable Energy liquefied natural gas, etc. will likely to boost the power sector.

Total
Others Renewable power projects offering clean power at a cheaper
Small Hydro rates likely to grow the consumption per capita. UDAY scheme
Jan'16 will help to improve the financial health of the discoms by
Bagasse
reducing the huge debt on them.
Biomass Jan'17

Solar
Wind

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

18
Road Development Data

Projects awarded/completed (in kms)

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17*

Total Length of roads awarded 9754 1916 3169 7980 10,000 8183

Total Length of roads constructed 5013 5732 4260 4410 6029 5471

Exhibit I
For April 2016- January 2017, total length of highways constructed in India
is 5471 kms against 4749 kms in the corresponding period last year. On the
2016-17
award front total length is 8183 kms against 7640 kms. Government is
2015-16 expecting to complete 8000 kms this fiscal which is still 2000 kms short of
target and on the award front the target is 15000 kms. However the pace
2014-15 Total Lenghts of roads was remain subdued during the monsoon period and construction
constructed activities was largely affected due to demonetization from November
2013-14 onwards. The government is targeting to complete around 15000 kms
Total Lenghts of roads
awarded construction of highways in 17-18 which can be achieved given the funds
2012-13
through budgetary allocation of INR 64900 crore and extra budgetary
2011-12 sources such as bonds.

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

19
Outlook
After a stellar performance in February 2017 led by domestic and global factors, Indian market is poised to
take directions based on key events during the month. The results of the five state elections will be
announced on March 11th which may set the reforms agenda of the government, impacting directions of
the market. US FOMC will decide on the US Fed rates on March 15th 2017, and a 25bps hike is already
being built into the market, after US Fed Chief Janet Yellens comment on earlier occasions that
employment levels and other indicators are conducive for a rate hike in US. Besides these two key events,
news from US on Trumps policies will also hog the limelight.
On the macro economic front, economic data release during the mid of March will give direction of the
pace of pick up in Industrial activities and whether the impact of demonetization has receded. IIP data for
the month of January 2017 will be announced on March 10th. Prior period IIP was registered at -
0.40percent. CPI data for the month of February is slated to be announced on March 13 th 2017. Prior
Period CPI was at a comforting level of 3.17 percent. This data is also significantly relevant as the RBI has
already set a hawkish tone on the immediate interest rate front.
We expect the Indian market to remain volatile during the mid of the month of March and thereafter
consolidate for further gains. According to Bloomberg consensus, Nifty earnings (EPS) for FY18 is expected
at around 527, which is a growth of around 11.80% over the earnings of FY17(E) of 471.40. We expect
Nifty to trade around 17.50-16.50 times FY18EPS (E) which makes a range of 8959-8696 for the month of
March 2017. However, any breach above or below the defined levels may be temporary and the range
may be maintained during the month.

20
Nifty50 Stocks
Valuations

21
 Sectoral Valuations of Nifty50 Stocks

Valuations

Automobile
P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%)

Company FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

BAJAJ AUTO LTD 19.97 18.01 5.50 4.81 16.32 14.30 29.25 28.76
BOSCH LTD (P) 43.01 35.88 7.32 6.33 33.58 25.30 17.50 18.89
EICHER MOTORS LTD 38.51 30.43 14.21 10.46 24.89 20.06 45.00 41.89
HERO MOTOCORP LTD (P) 18.84 17.04 6.85 5.83 12.64 11.35 38.72 36.49
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD 19.06 15.07 2.55 2.32 11.19 9.54 15.19 15.33
MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD 25.72 22.26 5.47 4.60 17.61 15.26 23.57 22.76
TATA MOTORS LTD 18.52 10.96 1.83 1.57 5.50 4.17 -9.90 -8.10
TATA MOTORS LTD-A-DVR 10.84 5.27 1.04 0.89 5.10 3.70 10.13 18.23
Cement
P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%)

Company FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

ACC LTD 32.82 23.60 2.98 2.82 15.01 11.89 9.79 12.78
AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD 29.02 21.66 2.62 2.25 14.39 10.29 8.42 9.99
GRASIM INDUSTRIES LTD 15.28 13.18 1.59 1.41 7.65 6.33 10.33 11.12
ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD 38.79 33.26 4.42 3.95 20.14 16.69 12.01 13.11

Metals
P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%)

Company FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD 12.96 9.57 0.97 0.89 7.58 6.95 4.80 6.60
TATA STEEL LTD 26.15 10.87 1.65 1.47 8.54 7.00 6.87 15.09

22
 Sectoral Valuations of Nifty50 Stocks

Valuations

Oil & Gas

P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%)

Company FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LTD 11.41 11.00 2.72 2.31 8.22 7.39 25.80 22.79
COAL INDIA LTD 17.63 14.57 6.49 6.53 10.79 8.71 35.19 46.09
GAIL INDIA LTD 16.84 13.92 1.72 1.58 11.06 9.48 12.14 12.91
OIL & NATURAL GAS CORP LTD 11.89 9.62 1.20 1.12 5.49 4.61 11.18 12.67
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD 13.19 13.10 1.43 1.31 11.44 9.49 11.88 11.58

Power
P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%)

Company FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

NTPC LTD 13.54 12.05 1.41 1.31 10.60 9.00 10.58 11.10
POWER GRID CORP OF INDIA LTD 13.00 11.05 2.11 1.84 8.90 7.47 16.55 16.97
TATA POWER CO LTD 15.72 12.77 1.45 1.34 7.17 6.61 7.55 8.20

BFSI
P/E (x) P/BV (x) NIM (%) ROE(%)

Company FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

AXIS BANK LTD 30.54 16.89 2.24 2.03 3.47 3.44 7.61 12.44
BANK OF BARODA 19.13 10.09 0.98 0.91 2.13 2.23 5.06 9.09
HDFC BANK LIMITED 23.89 19.99 4.15 3.58 4.47 4.42 18.56 19.14
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE 28.94 26.14 5.76 5.16 3.38 3.35 20.93 20.88
ICICI BANK LTD 16.29 14.40 1.72 1.61 3.14 3.17 10.94 11.04
INDUSIND BANK LTD 26.63 21.33 3.88 3.36 4.06 4.04 15.49 16.78
KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD 39.43 31.87 5.54 4.87 4.28 4.39 13.04 13.92
STATE BANK OF INDIA 18.77 13.19 1.31 1.23 2.66 2.68 7.25 9.38
23
YES BANK LTD 18.92 15.40 3.44 2.87 3.39 3.46 20.41 20.45
 Sectoral Valuations of Nifty50 Stocks

Valuations

Engineering & Capital Goods

P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%)

Company FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

ADANI PORTS AND SPECIAL ECON 17.65 17.69 3.80 3.20 14.91 13.17 23.75 21.10
BHARAT HEAVY ELECTRICALS 41.88 26.22 1.19 1.14 25.95 16.60 2.51 4.72
LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD 25.66 21.39 2.81 2.56 17.84 15.05 11.57 12.32

Telecom
P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%)

Company FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

BHARTI AIRTEL LTD 31.20 31.43 2.10 2.00 7.23 7.05 6.56 6.14
BHARTI INFRATEL LTD 18.64 17.38 3.05 2.97 8.59 7.89 15.43 17.70
IDEA CELLULAR LTD NA NA 1.75 1.88 8.46 8.43 -1.84 -6.70

IT
P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%)

Company FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD 14.48 13.21 3.67 3.19 10.31 9.20 27.30 25.99
INFOSYS LTD 16.11 14.89 3.47 3.12 10.80 9.84 22.40 22.01
TATA CONSULTANCY SVCS LTD 18.51 17.20 5.74 4.93 13.70 12.46 33.12 30.52
TECH MAHINDRA LTD 14.81 12.78 2.81 2.46 10.17 8.67 19.63 19.85
WIPRO LTD 14.18 13.15 2.37 2.13 9.21 8.56 17.39 16.96
Media
P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%)

Company FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18

ZEE ENTERTAINMENT ENTERPRISE 40.68 31.21 7.20 5.91 25.93 21.94 23.31 21.68
24
 Sectoral Valuations

Projections

Pharma
P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%)

Company FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY17 FY18

AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD 16.58 14.27 4.27 3.35 11.59 9.98 28.46 25.51
CIPLA LTD 32.27 24.08 3.56 3.15 18.48 14.57 11.70 88.00
DR. REDDY'S LABORATORIES 32.86 21.24 3.69 3.24 17.86 12.96 10.93 15.64
LUPIN LTD 23.39 20.41 4.97 4.13 15.25 13.55 23.15 22.04
SUN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUS 22.83 20.85 4.32 3.66 15.00 14.15 20.27 18.67

FMCG
P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE(%)

Company FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY17 FY18

ASIAN PAINTS LTD 50.27 43.33 14.97 12.93 31.78 27.70 31.99 31.95
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD 43.42 38.00 44.61 41.83 29.61 26.15 112.13 128.39
ITC LTD 29.85 26.26 8.22 7.47 19.34 17.00 29.69 30.97

25
 Global Key Economic Indicators and Developments

U.S. economy slowed in fourth quarter despite robust consumer spending:

The U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in the fourth quarter, as previously reported. GDP rose at a 1.9% annual rate in Q4 of 2016 as downward revisions to business
and government investment offset robust consumer spending. The estimate matched what was published last month. Output increased at a 3.5% rate in Q3 2016. The
economy grew 1.6% for all of 2016, its worst performance since 2011, after expanding 2.6% in 2015.

U.S. existing home sales hit 10-year high in January:

The U.S. home resales surged to a 10-year high in January 2017 as buyers shrugged off higher prices and mortgage rates, a sign of growing confidence in the economy.
Existing home sales jumped 3.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.69 million units in January. That was the highest level since February 2007. December's sales pace
was revised up to 5.51 million units from the previously reported 5.49 million units. Sales were up 3.8% from January 2016. Demand for housing is being underpinned by a
strengthening labor market, which is improving employment opportunities for young adults and, in turn, boosting household formation.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest in Almost 44 Years:

The U.S. Jobless claims fell by 19,000 to 223,000 in the week ended February 25, 2017, the fewest since March 1973. The weekly decline, which was the largest this year,
shows employers are keeping dismissals at a minimum as demand remains steady and the labor market stays tight. The four-week moving average decreased to 234,250 -
the lowest since April 1973.

Euro Zone Q4 2016 GDP Growth Revised Lower:

Euro Zone GDP increased 0.4% in Q4 of 2016. This was lower than the advance flash estimate of 0.5% published earlier. Year-on-year growth slowed to 1.7% from 1.8% in Q3.

Euro zone factory activity touches 6-year high on weaker euro: PMI
Upturn in Euro Zone factory activity accelerated in February 2017 to the fastest rate in nearly six years. The IHS Markit's final manufacturing PMI for the Euro Zone rose to
55.4 in February, the highest since April 2011, from January's 55.2. It was revised down slightly from a flash estimate of 55.5 but remained far above the 50 mark denoting
growth in activity.

China cuts GDP target to 6.5%:

China set its GDP growth target at around 6.5% for 2017, as the world's second largest economy braced for further slowdown of its growth. China last year achieved 6.7%
GDP growth, the lowest in over 26 years slowing further down from 6.9% in 2015.

26
 Trade Balance & Currency

India's exports grew for the fifth straight month in January 2017, on account of
0
an increase in shipments of petroleum products, engineering goods and iron
ore. Exports grew by 4.3% YoY in January to $22.12 billion against $23.88 billion
-5 in December. India's total exports for the first ten months (April-January) of
FY2016-17 stood at $220.92 billion against $218.53 billion in the corresponding
-10 period of last year, registering a growth of 1.1% in USD. During January 2017,
shipments of engineering goods increased by 11.89% YoY to $5.45 billion,
-15 petroleum products exports grew by 28.96% YoY to $2.69 billion, Non-
petroleum exports increased by 1.6% YoY to $19.42 billion and exports of iron
-20 ore jumped over 10 times to $184.43 million from a year earlier. On the other
hand, Indias imports grew by 10.7% in January 2017 from a year earlier to
-25 $31.96 billion against $34.25 billion in the previous month. For the first ten
months of FY2016-17, Imports totaled at $307.31 billion compared with
$326.28 billion in the same period of previous year, resulting a degrowth of
5.8%. With global oil prices climbing back to nearly $55 a barrel, India's oil
imports during January were valued at $8.14 billion, which was a massive 61.1%
jump over oil imports valued at $5.05 billion in the corresponding month of
2016. One of the major component of Indias imports basket, gold imports
Forex Reserves vs USD-INR
slipped by 29.94% YoY to $2.04 billion in January from $2.91 billion in the same
70 400 Forex Reserve ($ bn) month last year as demand declined following cash crunch post
65 350
demonetization. As a result, Indias trade deficit stood at $9.84 billion in
January compared with $10.37 billion in December 2016. Trade Deficit was
USD-INR

60 300 $7.66 billion in January 2016. For April-January FY2016-17, Indias trade deficit
55 250 stood at $86.39 billion against $107.74 billion during the same period of last
year.
50 200

45 150
USD depreciated by 1.73% against INR from 67.8650 to 66.6900 during February
2017. On the other hand, India's Foreign Exchange Reserves have gone up
marginally by $63.7 million to stand at $362.793 billion as of week ending
February 24, 2017. However, during the month of February, Forex increased by
Forex Reserve INR $1.23 billion to $362.793 billion.

27
 LME Base Metals

Aluminium Copper

2500 6000000 9000 700000

8000 600000
2000 5000000 7000
6000 500000
4000000
1500 5000 400000
3000000 4000 300000
1000 3000 200000
2000000 2000
500 1000 100000
1000000 0 0

12/1/2012

10/1/2013

11/1/2015
2/1/2012
7/1/2012

5/1/2013

3/1/2014
8/1/2014
1/1/2015
6/1/2015

4/1/2016
9/1/2016
2/1/2017
0 0
12/1/2012

10/1/2013

11/1/2015
2/1/2012
7/1/2012

5/1/2013

3/1/2014
8/1/2014
1/1/2015
6/1/2015

4/1/2016
9/1/2016
2/1/2017
Inventory (USD) Price(USD) Inventories (USD) Price (USD)

Zinc Lead
3500 1400000 3000 400000
3000 1200000 2500 350000
2500 1000000 300000
2000 250000
2000 800000
1500 600000 1500 200000
1000 150000
1000 400000
100000
500 200000 500 50000
0 0 0 0
12/1/2012

11/1/2015
10/1/2013
2/1/2012
7/1/2012

5/1/2013

3/1/2014
8/1/2014
1/1/2015
6/1/2015

4/1/2016
9/1/2016
2/1/2017

12/1/2012

10/1/2013

11/1/2015
2/1/2012
7/1/2012

5/1/2013

3/1/2014
8/1/2014
1/1/2015
6/1/2015

4/1/2016
9/1/2016
2/1/2017
Inventory(USD) Price (USD) Inventory (USD) Price (USD)

28
 Key developments in the Telecom Sector
Vodafone-Idea Merger
Mukesh Ambanis Reliance Jio took a toll on other telecom players in India. With the freebies being extended by Jio and market share being eaten up , other players were bound
to come up with some plan or the other. Among the prominent players, Idea was the one most beaten up untill Vodafone came to its rescue. The proposed Vodafone-Idea merger
will likely be an all-share merger of Vodafone India (excluding Vodafone's 42 percent stake in Indus Towers) and Idea. The merger will be effected through the issue of new shares
in Idea to Vodafone and would result in Vodafone Plc deconsolidating Vodafone India.

The deal will help Vodafone to improve its position in the mass market while Idea would benefit from Vodafones metro city coverage. The combined entity is expected to have a
revenue market share of 43 per cent against 33 per cent of Bharti Airtel and 13 per cent of Reliance Jio. However as per telecom M&A norms, the combined entity revenue and
subscriber market shares should be below 50 per cent and spectrum holdings below specified caps. To align with that the entity would get one year. So shredding some spectrum
and subscribers might be a challenge for them.

The deal would help Vodafone India reduce its losses and also get listed without undergoing the IPO process. For idea, it is undoubtedly a win win situation. Idea has a debt of
approximately INR40,000 Crore and reported losses in the December 16 quarter. The merger will create synergies and will enable the 3rd largest telecom to stay and compete in
the market along with Vodafone, which otherwise seemed quite unlikely.

Airtel-Telenor Merger
Due to Indian Telecom M&A guidelines, a Airtel-Vodafone or Airtel-Idea merger was not possible. Reliance Jios schemes had already shook the telecom sector and then came the
news of Vodafone-Idea merger. Airtel had to resort to some mode of consolidation and announced to acquire Telenor India. Telenor India will give Bharti Airtel an additional 43.4
MHz spectrum in the 1800 MHz band. Bhartil Airtels subscriber base of 265 million will get a boost of round about 52 million subscribers of Telenor India compared to Vodafones
subscriber base of 200 million and Ideas 190 million. Telenor has running operations in seven circles Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Gujarat, UP (East and West) and
Assam. These circles represent a high population concentration and therefore offer a high potential for growth. The proposed acquisition will include transfer of all assets and
customers of Telenor, further augmenting Airtels overall customer base and network.

A possible RCom-Aircel-MTS-Tata Teleservices merger

After the two big deals in the telecom sector, it is believed that consolidation is the only way going forward. It is believed that Reliance Communications and the Tata Group have
initiated talks to explore a possible deal where Tata Teleservices may join the merged RCom-Aircel and MTS. However there are hurdles such as Tata Teleservices debt of
INR30,000 Crore , Tata Sons and NTT Docomos dispute which they are trying to resolve. The Delhi high court will next hear the Tata NTT DoCoMo case on 8 March. If this deal
goes through, they might be the third largest player in telecom after Vodafone-Idea and Airtel-Telenor with around 260 million subscribers and revenue share of 18%. However, as
per BSE notification RCom has clarified they evaluate various opportunities and as on Feb 21,2017 no talks have been initiated by them.

29
 Sectoral Update
Agriculture & Infrastructure

30
 Sectoral Update

Agriculture
Agriculture is stealing the limelight for quite some time now. Buoyed by normal monsoons in 2016 after two consecutive
droughts, Indias food grain harvest is going to gain some momentum and is likely to break past records. Food grain
production is estimated to be 272 million tonnes in FY17, which is 8 per cent higher than 251.6 million tonnes in the previous YoY change in sales(%) in
year and 265 million tonnes in 2013-14. With this, increased allocation of agricultural credit by 11 per cent to INR10 Lakh
Crore in Budget 2017-18 will help agricultural sector to gain traction. Khariff season
Since agriculture plays a vital role in Indian economy so with the growth of agricultural sector, allied sectors are also likely to 10
show stellar performance. The easier farm credit would encourage the farmers for balanced usage of fertilisers. The move
will stabilize the demand for fertilisers. Last year due to low ground water level Rabi acreage was down because of which 0
retail inventories piled up . As a consequence sales of all grades of fertilizers barring MOP came down in kharif season but Urea Diammonium Muriate of Complex
-10 Phosphate Potash grades
due to better monsoon the demand for agri-inputs increased in the Rabi season. Additionally, there were 6 per cent upward
revision of budgeted subsidy of P&K (phosphatic & potassic) fertilizers in budget which is also positive for the P&K
manufacturers. -20

Rural, agriculture and allied sectors are allocated a total of INR1,87,223 Crore in 2017-18 Union Budget which is 24 per cent YoY change in sales(%)
higher than last year. This will augment farmers income and will have enough money to buy seeds and fertilizers. This will Source: Ministry of chemicals & Fertilizers
lead to a larger farm production. Further, Budgetary provision for the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment
Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) is at INR48,000 crore, up from the INR47,499 crore revised estimate for FY17. Fasal Bima
Yojana which gives Insurance coverage for crops has also been increased from 30 percent in 2016-17 to 40 per cent in 2017-
18 and further 50 per cent in 2018-19 for which budget provisions of INR9000 Crore has been made. Adding to that, 60 days
YoY change in sales(%) in Rabi
interest waiver for farmers will give a push to this agricultural sector to reach the estimated food grain production of 272 season
million tonnes or even more.
40
Government in order to ease the inconvenience caused due to demonetization tried their level best to bring back the lost
impetus in the farm sector. It dedicated a micro irrigation fund to be set up at NABARD with an initial corpus of INR5000
20
Crore. This will help to achieve the goal of Per Drop More Crop. The government will also issue Soil health Cards and will
set up mini labs in Krishi Vigenkendras. INR368 crore has been provided for National Project on Soil Health and Fertility.
0
Besides, 2000 model retail outlets of Fertilisers companies will be provided with soil and seed testing facilities during the next
Urea Diammonium Muriate of Potash Complex grades
three years. Coverage of National Agricultural Market (e-NAM) will also be expanded from the current 250 to 585 markets.
Phosphate
This will help in better realization of the farm produce. -20

In June 2016, the Central Government decided to provide interest subvention of 5 per cent per annum to all farmers for YoY change in sales(%)
short term crop loan up to one year for loan up to INR3 lakh borrowed by them during the year 2016-17. Farmers thus have
to effectively pay only 4 per cent as interest. In case farmers do not repay the short term crop loan in time they would be
eligible for interest subvention of 2 per cent as against 5 per cent available above.
31
 Sectoral Update

Agriculture
Interest subvention scheme is for public and private sector banks, in addition to cooperative banks,
350
regional rural banks and NABARD for providing short term crop loan to farmers. This along with the current
300
provisions for the rural sector in the budget will augur well for agri-input players like Rallis India, Dhanuka
Agritech, Pi Industries etc. 250
200
This fiscal year, owing to the above policy initiatives taken by government and a good south-west monsoon
150
the food grain production is estimated to reach 272 million tonnes. As per the Ministry of Agriculture &
100
Farmers Welfare, Wheat production is likely to rise by 4.7% to 96.6 million tonnes in 2016-17 as compared
50
to 92.3 million tonnes in 2015-16. Govt. will procure 33 million tonnes of wheat from farmers at support
price. This is higher than 23 million tonne procured during 2016. The increase in acreage was seen in states 0
Wheat Rice Pulses Coarse Oil seeds
of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Wheat acreage stood at 309.60 lakh hectares, 7.1
Cereals
percent increase over corresponding year-ago period. Last year the acreage was 297 lakh hectares. Acreage
beats last years acreage by 100 million hectares. The area sown under kharif and rabi crops during 2016-17 2016-17 2015-16
was 3.5 per cent and 5.9 per cent higher respectively compared to 2015-16.The stock of food-grains (Rice Source: Ministry of Agriculture & farmers Welfare
and Wheat) was 43.5 million tonnes as on December 01, 2016 compared to 50.5 million tonnes as on
December 01, 2015 vis--vis the buffer stock norm of 30.77 million tonnes as on October 01, 2015.

Pulses production is likely to rise by 35% to 22.1 million tonnes from 16.4 million tonnes in 2015-16, as a result pulses like arhar and moong are selling lower than govt
announced support price. Rice production estimated at 106.7 million tonnes in 2016-17 from 104.4 million tonnes in 2015-16 (Increasing by 2 million tonnes). Oil seeds
production is estimated to rise by 25% year over year to 33.6 million tonnes from 25.2 million tonnes. Sugar cane production is to decline to 309 million tonnes as compared to
348 million tonnes in the previous year. Cotton production to increase from 30 million bales last year to 32.5 million bales in 2016-17 but lower than 35.9 million bales in 2013-
14. The current years food grain production is also 14.97 million tonnes higher than previous 5 year average.

The record harvest will help to keep the food inflation under check. The agricultural growth rate will be better than estimated 4.1 % by Central Statistical Organization. In the
last years due to drought it stood at 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. NITI Aayog expects it to be a handsome 7%. Note ban didnt affect the food grain economy. Sowing of Rabi
crop has surpassed previous five years average. Agricultural sector registered a healthy 6.0% YoY growth in the quarter ended December 2016 on account of a good monsoon.

In addition to that, after the assembly election, govt may revive the Seeds Bill that seeks to regulate seeds and plant material to ensure quality, increase private participation in
production and distribution, liberalize imports while incorporating measures to protect rights of farmers. The Bill revived by the govt after 10 years in November, 2014 was put
on hold in 2015.

Thus we can now come to the conclusion that agriculture and the allied companies can expect better prospects due to several reasons like increase in acreage this year, better
production after better than expected monsoon along with various policy initiatives taken by government. The easier farm credit also encouraged farmers for balanced usage
for fertilisers and thus stabilized demand for fertilizers. Seeds, fertiliser and agrochemical companies have reported a turnaround in demand due to this. Moves like setting a
target of doubling farmers income in the next five years has also bought optimism in this sector.
32
 Sectoral Update

Agriculture

33
 Sectoral Update

Infrastructure

Infrastructure sector is crucial for enhancing Indias overall development. The current government has taken lot of initiatives that would ensure the stable and structured
infrastructure in the country. The Union Government has allocated INR396135 crore in the Union Budget 2017-18, which is a clear sign that the sector has a long run towards
economic growth. The enhanced allocation in capex for roads, railways and other infrastructure such as irrigation, power is a great boost to the sector. Granting the
infrastructure status to the affordable housing segment will help the construction sector in further grabbing order inflows. Roads and smart cities are the two key areas which
have lot of potential.

Transport
The budget announcement this year focused on improving the transport connectivity in India. Government has allocated INR 64900 crore for the road transport and
encourage tourism and better connectivity with ports and remote villages for which government will develop 2000 kms of roads in Coastal regions. For April 2017- January
2017, total length of Highways constructed in India is 5471 kms against 4749 kms in the corresponding period last year. On the award front total lenght is 8183 kms against
7640 kms. Government is expecting to complete 8000 kms this fiscal. The total length of roads built from 2014-15 till the current year is about 1,40,000 kms. . The budget has
proposed to redevelop 25 new railway station in FY18 and 3500 kms of railway lines will be commissioned in 2017-18 A new metro rail policy will announced later this year
with a focus on innovative models of implementation and financing. The government is also focusing on the airport development with an aim to developing airport from tier-II
cities which will be developed through the public-private partnership.

Power
With the various announcement in the Union Budget 2017-18 like Promoting clean energy, Solar capacity addition, higher spending on rural electrification and lower import
duty in liquefied natural gas, etc. will likely to boost the power sector. The 26 per cent increase in renewable energy shows that India is efficiently working towards generating
electricity from renewable sources and producing clean energy. As of 31st January 2017, the total installed Capacity is reported at 314642.32 MW. Recently, the government
has announced that it will double the solar park capacity to 40,000 MW in three years which is widening the green energy corridor. Full electrification will be given to the
villages by May 2018. Renewable power projects offering clean power at a cheaper rates likely to grow the consumption per capita. UDAY scheme will help to improve the
financial health of the discoms by reducing the huge debt on them.

Real Estate
The first six months of the 2017 for real estate will be subdued due to demonetization resulting in muted demand. Post demonetization we believe most of the unorganized
small players in real estate market may be forced to either get organized or shut their businesses as most of the small builders deal in cash. we also believe that the organized
players are likely to benefit from the space vacated by the small players. Customers are waiting for the interest rate on loan and the prices of the property to come down as
they are unlikely to invest in the property for the near term.

34
 Sectoral Update

Infrastructure

In the long run, demonetization and other real estate laws will increase the reliability and bring transparency in the system. Granting the infrastructure status to the
affordable housing segment in Union Budget 2017-18 will likely to help the construction sector in further grabbing order inflows. The sector is waiting for the Real Estate
Regulation & Development Act to be implemented soon which will enforce transparency and accountability requirement for developers in to the system. Apart from RERA,
GST and the Benami Property Act will also have a major impact on how developers run their business.

Cement
For the quarter ended December 2016, total cement production in India reported was 69.04 million tonnes which increased by 2.5 per cent YoY. However the total cement
sales reduced significantly in the quarter due to severe liquidity crunch as construction activities was severly impacted because the segment deals in cash and this will
continue impacting the next quarter also. Demonetization and the hike in the fuel prices will delay the demand recovery in the beginning of 2017. With demand being
impacted by the note ban, the industry had seen a drop in capacity utilization to 60 per cent from 75 per cent. However, the demand is recovering post note ban and prices of
the cement are increasing which helps in realization. Prices of the Pet coke has now become normal at USD 78-USD 80 per tonne which will help the company improving cost
efficiency. On the positive side, Union Budgets focus on roads, affordable housing and other infrastructure projects will likely to boost the cement sector

Cement Production in India (in Million tonnes)

Months 2016-17 MoM(%) 2015-16 YoY(%)
April 24.69 -8% 23.66 4%
May 24.89 1% 24.29 2%
June 26.06 5% 23.62 10%
July 23.33 -10% 23.01 1%
August 22.28 -5% 21.62 3%
September 22.63 2% 21.44 6%
October 24.26 7% 22.84 6%
November 20.52 -15% 20.41 1%
December 22.00 7% 24.11 -9%

35
 Sectoral Update

Infrastructure

36
Technical Outlook

37
 Monthly Technical Outlook

Matador has to be smarter when the bull is stronger!!

After double bottom formation around 7900 levels, Nifty has rallied more than 1000 points in
last couple of months, and 318 points in the month of February 2017. Uninterrupted bull run
from 7900 to 8990 has again reestablished the hidden potential of the Indian equities. This
rally is backed by banking and metal stocks, especially private sector banking stocks. But, since
February 22, 2017, most remarkable contribution has come from Reliance, which has gained
around 20% and that has helped Nifty to hold 8800 levels. Reliance has broken out a prolonged
consolidation since 2009. Demonetization drive by the Government of India in Nov16 led to
disassociation of Nifty from its global peers. Nifty has recovered its entire downfall from the
Sep16 peak of 8968 to Dec16 low of 7894, and currently trading below its established double
top resistance placed around 8980. Mar2015 high of 9119 is to be challenged yet.

Post budget, Indian equities have held onto gains. Budget day February 1, 2017, Nifty low
around 8530 is now the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from Dec16 low of
7894 to recent high 8992. While the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is at 8730 which is going to
act as the demarcation between midterm bulls and bears.

Current chart pattern suggests, Nifty slid off the up-trending channel that it has been
maintaining since Dec16 while the RSI on daily chart has turned down from its overbought
zone. RSI is not moving in line with Nifty uptrend which is pointing towards bearish divergence
on daily chart. Further, RSI on weekly chart has almost reached its downward trend line
resistance while the Nifty is retesting its double top resistance around 8980. Summing up these
two evidences, we prefer being extremely cautious on rise towards Nifty double top resistance
of 8980. However, successful closing above Nifty double top resistance may take the Nifty
towards its Mar2015 high of 9119.

All eyes will be on the upcoming state elections results and the FOMC decision scheduled to be
released on March 15 on the Fed rate hike. Nifty remains a Buy-on-dips as long as 8700 levels
are intact. Financial, especially private banking stocks and metal stocks have been doing well
and may continue to do so. Investors may buy these stocks on dips around their respective
support levels.

Nifty trading range for the month is expected to be 9000-8700. Midway crucial support is
placed around 8800. Below 8800 it may comedown to 8700 levels. Mar2015 Nifty high of 9119
is the major upside resistance.

38
Model Portfolio

39
 Model Portfolio of Stewart & Mackertich

Market CMP(INR) Price Change (%) As on 31st March 2016 PE(x) EV/
Market Face P/BV D/E ROE
Company Sector Cap(INR- as on 1 3 PATM 1-yr 2-yr EBITDA
Size Value 1-year Net Sales EBITDA PAT EBITDA Current (x) (x) (%)
Cr) 28.02.2017 month month (%) (Est) (Est) (x)
M(%)
Excel Cropcare Agro-Chem 1906.56 Small 5.00 1732.50 1.65 -2.70 92.82 881.14 94.63 60.05 10.56 6.7 40.31 35.75 12.79 27.75 13.17 0.05 16.38
Rallis India Agro-Chem 4560.30 Small 1.00 234.40 12.39 26.15 59.81 1,611.55 230.17 146.73 14.14 9.01 31.90 24.59 21.58 5.07 13.75 0.10 17.13
Insecticides India Agro-Chem 1169.90 Small 10.00 568.00 4.05 18.62 82.59 988.15 91.15 39.29 8.84 3.81 29.78 x x 2.86 9.17 0.50 11.32
Shardacrop Agro-Chem 4178.11 Small 10.00 451.85 -0.30 21.14 106.87 1218.58 266.91 175.04 21.87 14.34 23.88 20.82 17.96 5.15 6.77 0.00 23.89
M&M Automobile 81030.82 Large 5.00 1312.15 7.78 5.49 8.23 69785.97 9647.39 2375.19 11.67 2.87 24.05 18.95 14.99 2.70 10.87 1.55 8.77
Maruti Suzuki Automobile 179177.27 Large 5.00 5922.50 3.98 18.27 59.31 57061.50 9118.80 4630.90 15.56 7.90 38.13 25.76 22.29 6.46 11.74 0.01 17.79
Igarashi Auto-Ancillaries 2415.01 Small 10.00 769.95 4.34 -0.07 64.16 444.98 104.81 63.64 23.55 14.30 37.95 x x 8.20 13.06 0.15 23.34
Exide Auto-Ancillaries 18088.00 Large 1.00 211.85 12.38 16.61 64.63 9479.44 1104.31 716.42 10.57 6.86 25.33 22.88 20.17 4.18 9.78 0.03 17.72
Goodyear Auto-Ancillaries 1631.03 Small 10.00 711.80 -4.10 -1.64 49.74 1747.13 196.99 123.10 11.26 7.03 15.24 x x 3.28 3.33 0.00 22.91
Ucal Fuel Auto-Ancillaries 405.23 Micro 10.00 182.55 -4.11 2.69 93.46 723.65 76.64 15.47 10.59 2.14 26.20 x x 6.07 6.14 4.39 23.38
Minda Ind Auto-Ancillaries 3528.85 Small 10.00 439.50 4.05 18.62 82.59 2,506.15 237.83 110.96 9.41 4.39 31.79 21.91 18.02 7.54 10.42 0.26 19.74
Bajaj Finserv BFSI 62936.49 Large 5.00 3914.15 20.89 24.54 113.76 9446.40 6738.38 2774.54 71.33 29.37 33.77 26.93 21.88 4.63 9.03 2.65 22.49
Care Rating BFSI 4168.17 Small 10.00 1396.10 -2.55 -1.02 40.04 279.37 173.88 119.60 62.24 42.81 34.41 27.46 23.53 10.19 14.94 0.00 31.49
Gruh Finance BFSI 13504.52 Mid 2.00 373.40 15.55 29.82 58.90 1275.40 1172.14 243.58 91.90 19.10 55.38 x x 16.15 16.11 12.26 31.49
HDFC Bank BFSI 355709.87 Large 2.00 1390.10 6.18 6.47 36.09 63161.57 11260.11 12817.33 67.08 20.29 27.32 23.61 19.90 4.73 15.25 0.97 18.65
LT Finance Holdings BFSI 20471.72 Large 10.00 116.45 14.25 29.59 114.88 7288.79 5277.72 853.69 72.41 11.71 30.77 23.35 17.12 2.84 11.63 6.23 12.76
Cholamandalam BFSI 15067.15 Large 10.00 973.70 7.10 4.13 50.81 4198.51 2946.93 574.65 69.94 13.64 25.41 20.62 17.10 4.10 11.25 6.14 18.12
ICICI Bank BFSI 162597.21 Large 2.00 276.35 1.93 3.12 39.62 59293.71 -15492.32 10926.89 16.53 18.43 15.93 15.43 14.60 1.73 13.45 2.41 12.42
RBL Bank BFSI 17702.76 Mid 10.00 476.70 4.45 11.06 x 2744.31 51.87 292.48 67.87 10.66 49.86 x x 5.20 20.02 3.53 11.21
IDFC Bank BFSI 21215.13 Large 10.00 53.25 -3.76 -15.06 21.90 3,648.83 336.75 466.85 85.34 12.79 26.69 21.46 20.68 1.55 86.88 3.52 6.85
Indian Bank BFSI 13923.65 Mid 10.00 288.50 12.95 15.14 226.80 16,244.27 1,246.76 714.52 67.5 4.4 18.54 x x 0.84 2.81 0.26 5.40
PNB BFSI 30461.86 Large 2.00 141.40 7.50 -7.02 90.83 50,803.87 6,123.40 -3,663.27 43.48 -7.21 x x x 0.67 7.50 2.10 -9.20
SBI BFSI 216600.25 Large 1.00 269.20 6.30 -1.93 73.82 221,854.84 5,090.41 12,743.28 49.68 5.74 46.99 34.37 15.90 0.97 7.29 1.44 7.48
Bajaj Finance BFSI 59631.35 Large 2.00 1108.20 13.11 15.36 72.68 6,956.59 4,868.52 1278.63 66.65 17.51 44.75 x x 7.82 14.62 5.05 21.09
Ramco Cement Building Materials 16034.47 Mid 1.00 665.65 8.06 15.26 76.51 3595.73 1145.33 558.56 31.07 15.15 28.74 23.16 20.67 5.22 10.10 0.72 19.60
Cera Building Materials 3186.44 Small 5.00 2445.50 24.40 26.94 53.42 933.69 141.28 83.46 14.46 8.54 38.18 x x 7.57 15.86 0.16 19.83
Honda Power Capital Goods 1405.53 Small 10.00 1385.60 -6.40 -5.61 23.07 661.35 88.04 48.83 13.09 7.26 28.78 x x 3.83 11.78 0.00 14.12
Fiem Industries Capital Goods 1254.79 Small 10.00 938.35 -20.51 -16.08 35.73 979.05 127.30 57.33 12.88 5.80 19.89 x x 4.18 9.63 0.54 24.25
Apar Industries Capital Goods 2825.66 Small 10.00 736.65 12.73 27.28 63.69 5046.83 295.49 163.55 5.82 3.22 17.36 15.76 13.53 3.29 5.17 0.45 20.58
GMM Pfaudler Capital Goods 761.21 Micro 2.00 523.15 -7.63 9.34 122.68 289.11 34.96 20.12 11.97 6.89 37.85 31.54 27.42 4.56 8.15 0.00 12.68
Ador Welding Capital Goods 404.08 Micro 10.00 288.90 -3.70 -0.03 22.67 406.27 40.91 22.39 10.02 5.48 18.05 16.24 13.36 1.86 8.00 0.00 10.68
Kirloskar Brothers Capital Goods 2009.05 Small 2.00 246.15 6.98 44.64 79.56 2540.31 65.31 -32.16 2.52 -1.24 x 96.09 24.17 2.08 12.97 0.38 -3.25
V-Guard Capital Goods 6957.93 Mid 1.00 226.80 26.13 14.80 145.54 1,849.78 178.01 111.68 9.56 6.00 61.81 x x 14.70 14.25 0.02 26.52
Dalmia Bharat Cement 16759.38 Large 2.00 1905.95 9.49 23.63 172.96 6367.26 1578.61 265.34 24.52 4.12 80.64 56.58 31.29 4.21 9.02 2.24 7.51
PI Industries Chemicals 11529.76 Mid 1.00 849.40 6.48 10.31 52.37 2076.02 434.64 315.33 20.73 15.04 36.36 27.51 24.42 9.81 16.70 0.13 30.54
Pidilite Industries Chemicals 35600.18 Large 1.00 682.15 5.22 7.18 15.40 5,341.38 1,173.90 756.38 21.86 14.09 47.11 40.31 35.75 12.79 24.73 0.03 29.96
Voltas Consumer Durables 12375.09 Mid 1.00 373.50 -2.12 2.85 45.36 5831.83 436.93 392.13 7.46 6.69 32.10 28.82 25.34 5.17 16.63 0.11 17.44

40
 Model Portfolio of Stewart & Mackertich

Market CMP(INR) Price Change (%) As on 31st March 2016 PE(x) EV/
Market Face P/BV D/E ROE
Company Sector Cap(INR- as on 1 3 EBITDA PATM 1-yr 2-yr EBITDA
Size Value 1-year Net Sales EBITDA PAT Current (x) (x) (%)
Cr) 28.02.2017 month month M(%) (%) (Est) (Est) (x)
Whirlpool of India Consumer Durables 12911.75 Mid 10.00 1036.75 5.03 7.21 59.90 3,338.35 381.02 247.9 9.88 6.43 52.02 x x 11.10 18.5 0.00 24.10
Balmer Lawrie Diversified 2387.21 Small 10.00 211.60 -7.73 3.21 60.27 3,179.22 257.11 178.88 7.96 5.54 13.35 11.91 11.01 2.04 4.16 0.14 16.18
Tube Investments Diversified 11706.43 Mid 2.00 622.80 5.66 2.89 59.14 7491.21 927.63 1007.11 11.61 12.60 11.26 x x 3.52 4.13 0.43 35.64
Bharat Electronics Electricals 33967.90 Large 10.00 1515.60 -0.53 16.47 36.29 7,382.74 1,540.97 1,393.69 20.41 18.46 26.31 23.58 22.17 3.98 10.46 0.00 15.86
ITC FMCG 321274.29 Large 1.00 262.20 8.64 17.06 37.98 39066.85 15056.35 10061.22 38.19 25.52 32.17 30.26 26.63 9.41 15.46 0.00 30.68
Amrutanjan Healthcare 874.16 Micro 2.00 574.45 -7.68 10.61 40.79 185.47 30.66 20.58 15.66 10.51 40.98 x x 7.76 15.47 0.02 20.20
Dishman Healthcare 3724.17 Small 2.00 230.60 -14.29 -10.18 35.25 1561.85 410.33 171.00 25.71 10.71 21.77 18.37 14.66 2.57 8.22 0.65 12.77
Lupin Healthcare 66426.25 Large 2.00 1474.10 -5.51 1.35 -18.54 13701.56 3753.45 2279.45 26.42 16.04 29.16 23.41 20.41 6.04 18.53 0.65 23.05
Mahindra Holdiays Hospitality 3844.21 Small 10.00 434.20 10.15 4.90 25.43 1480.77 285.44 119.12 17.86 7.45 38.49 27.45 24.06 5.69 18.93 3.57 17.08
Eveready Household Products 1802.28 Small 5.00 249.95 6.19 9.79 17.16 1,322.54 120.93 50.60 8.68 3.63 35.62 25.06 17.87 2.73 14.53 0.30 7.88
Accelya Kale IT 2176.25 Small 10.00 1492.25 10.22 13.68 87.58 339.71 132.82 83.02 38.95 24.35 26.21 21.48 19.15 19.24 11.80 0.00 72.76
Tech Mahindra IT 48555.09 Large 5.00 499.40 3.33 13.47 20.49 26494.23 4318.41 3156.73 16.30 11.91 14.24 14.79 12.76 2.76 8.86 0.08 24.53
Allsec IT 640.70 Micro 10.00 412.35 -4.86 43.96 282.62 233.38 33.89 30.94 14.52 13.26 20.71 9.45 7.26 7.01 3.74 0.09 40.47
Infosys IT 235712.47 Large 5.00 1012.40 4.70 6.34 -7.28 62441.00 17079.00 13494.00 27.35 21.61 16.35 16.33 15.08 3.58 12.14 0.00 25.21
Blue Dart Logistics 10214.76 Mid 10.00 4286.30 -5.80 -12.83 -26.52 2563.74 381.74 192.97 14.89 7.52 53.00 55.29 45.98 24.67 35.20 0.95 53.50
Gulf Oil Lubricants Lubricants 3622.48 Small 2.00 727.25 4.09 1.94 39.62 1008.67 159.16 100.32 13.61 8.58 36.07 28.85 24.41 14.56 13.97 0.79 46.36
TV Today Media 1553.38 Small 5.00 259.95 1.29 -13.15 -7.28 542.14 146.33 94.31 26.80 17.27 16.47 16.55 13.00 2.92 9.45 0.00 19.21
HPCL Oil & Gas 52135.05 Large 10.00 537.75 7.05 18.04 127.39 186760.43 10639.52 4846.91 4.99 2.27 10.59 8.88 8.96 3.01 4.82 2.10 31.94
Petronet LNG Oil & Gas 29943.75 Large 10.00 406.60 5.22 7.67 53.69 26,247.53 1,645.53 928.53 6.04 3.41 32.25 20.79 16.85 4.66 10.55 0.40 15.29
Westcoast paper Paper 1208.69 Micro 2.00 182.25 14.04 23.43 168.65 503.32 61.16 29.88 12.15 5.94 136.57 x x 2.02 4.56 1.24 1.48
Finolex Ind Plastic Products 6686.88 Mid 10.00 537.70 11.58 21.43 68.91 2,430.33 375.11 233.59 15.29 9.52 27.98 19.31 20.65 6.73 11.4 0.22 26.77
Nilkamal Plastic Products 2927.95 Small 10.00 1931.20 12.60 30.78 60.77 1996.00 240.06 115.23 11.98 5.75 25.84 22.52 19.24 4.68 7.04 0.17 20.02
Supreme Ind Plastic Products 12612.50 Mid 2.00 1008.65 13.35 13.82 42.27 2,958.57 461.14 204.51 15.50 6.87 x 31.86 26.43 9.59 21.00 0.31 16.19
Torrentpower Power 9898.30 Mid 10.00 205.30 8.65 22.78 -3.53 11257.54 2990.42 867.21 25.59 7.42 11.44 25.22 15.03 1.31 5.78 1.14 12.31
Power Grid Power 101048.15 Large 10.00 192.15 0.30 6.10 43.58 21,289.10 18,604.64 6,014.56 87.13 28.17 16.80 13.06 11.11 2.35 8.65 2.69 14.78
Mahindra Lifespace Realty 1422.92 Small 10.00 344.50 -4.40 -6.59 -23.07 826.16 166.37 97.11 20.14 11.75 15.28 11.59 9.68 0.91 15.41 1.16 6.41
Raymond Textile 3977.17 Small 10.00 628.70 -2.09 -0.32 24.08 5594.69 463.64 89.78 8.25 1.60 43.20 48.12 27.07 2.44 8.18 1.26 5.66
Himatsingka Seide Textile 3516.40 Small 5.00 351.80 9.87 38.17 113.94 1,808.76 292.00 166.60 15.48 8.83 21.11 18.87 14.41 3.58 8.76 0.96 18.63
Siysil Textile 1593.58 Small 10.00 1686.25 19.23 35.65 67.53 1619.14 186.88 84.89 11.52 5.23 18.77 21.14 15.14 3.14 6.49 0.80 16.72
Welspun India Textile 8962.15 Mid 1.00 89.15 24.70 43.72 0.87 5,387.66 1,557.53 715.34 26.05 11.96 12.74 12.11 11.47 4.51 7.59 1.34 41.84

Nifty 8879.60 3.93 7.84 24.96 21.60 20.30 16.79

41
 Model Portfolio of Stewart & Mackertich

Note:
1.Large Cap=Market Size>15k Crore
2. Mid Cap=15k>Market Size>6k Crore
3. Small Cap=6k>Market Size>1k Crore
4. Micro Cap=1k>Market Size>200 Crore

42
 Research & Development Strategies
Mr Ajay Jaiswal Mr Ashiwini Kumar Tripathi Mr. Vishal Prabhakar
President: Strategies and Head Research Director VP Investor Relations & BDM
ajaiswal@smifs.com aswin.tripathi@smifs.com vishal.prabhakar@smifs.com
+91 33 30515408 / 40115408 +91 33 30515415 / 40115415 +91 33 30515400 / 40115400
Mobile: +91 9836966900 Mobile: +91 9831155058 Mobile: +91 9831554477

Fundamental Research
Mr. Saurabh Ginodia Mr. Dipanjan Basuthakur Mr. Harshit Mantri Ms. Sutapa Biswas Mr. Aditya Jaiswal
Senior Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
saurabh.ginodia@smifs.com dipanjan.basuthakur@smifs.com BFSI/IT/Media Economy Aviation and Logistics
+91 33 30515407 +91 33 30515486 harshit.mantri@smifs.com sutapa.biswas@smifs.com aditya.jaiswal@smifs.com
+91 33 30515433 / 30515468 +91 9836020612 +91 33 30515433 / 30515468

Mr. Jeet Ranjan Ghosh Ms. Mononita Mitra Mr. Abhishek Roy Mr. Kapil Joshi
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
Auto Ancillary/Engineering/Oil and Gas Agro Chemicals/Diversified FMCG/ Capital Goods/Textiles Building Products/Infrastructure
jeet.ghosh@smifs.com m.mitra@smifs.com abhishek.roy@smifs.com kapil.joshi@smifs.com
+91 33 30515433 / 30515468 +91 33 30515468 +91 33 30515468 +91 33 30515468

Technical Research
Mr. Jaydeb Dey
Technical Analyst Equities
jaydeb.dey@smifs.com
+91 33 30515433

Stock Recommendation Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months

Strong Buy >20%
Buy between 10% and 20%
Hold between 0% and 10%
Sell 0 to <-10%
Neutral No Rating
Investor Relations and Data Support
Mr. Sandipan Chatterjee Ms. Debjani Sen Ms. Sulagna Mukherjee Mr. Manish Kumar Sharma
Officer Business Development Officer Investor Relations Executive Customer Care Research Data Support
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+91 33 30515461 +91 33 30515401 +91 33 30515436 +91 33 30515436

Bloomberg Ticker for Stewart & Mackertich Research: SMIF<Enter>

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