Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Rolling resistance
Aux. power
A car spends
86% Egine losses
Transmission losses
96%
of fuel never
reaches the wheels of its time parked
Idling
Infra efficiency
Only 10% of a road occupied by cars (Peak) Peak only 5% of the time
Source: Resource Revolution , Heck & Rogers (2014) * Based on the USA
3 key drivers of automotive paradigm shift 2/26
Energy efficiency
U$30,000 300
2025?
Cell Mfg
261 Other Materials
[Share of xEV in new car sales] Battery research institutes (SNE, IIT, B3)
14.0%
2.0~12.0% Optimistic
About 10 mil.
- Chinas bus market working as positive
12.0% Midrange units by 2020 - Influenced by micro car, e-bike, commercial
Entire forecast range (Over 10% )* vehicle markets
10.0%
* Share of xEV (HEV, PHEV, AEV, FCEV) in total auto sales (passenger cars, SUVs, light duty vehicles)
Fierce competition for developing self-driving cars 6/26
LIDAR
(Core Equipment)
GPS Lidar
positioning Monitors surroundings
$80~$6,000 $90~$8,000
Odometry sensors
Complement GPS info. Price decline in
$80~$120
full-self driving system
200 [$1,000]
Radar sensors
Central ECU
Monitor surroundings
Information processing & control
(pedestrians, roads)
50~200% of sensor costs
$50~150
50
10 1
Tesla Motors offers a level 5 autonomous system without LIDAR at a price level of 8,000 US dollars
0.0%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Reduced accidents: 94% caused by human mistakes Facility investment: Expensive facility, infra investment
Improved efficiency: Less congestion PROS CONS Unpredictable mechanical fault: System failure, hacking
Prosperous sharing economy: Less demand for cars, Job loss: Truck and taxi drivers
improved efficiency
Source: Revolution in the drivers seat, BCG (2015); forecast is based on McKinsey&Company
Rapid growth in car sharing, reduced car ownership 9/26
Source: Chinese automotive consumer survey, McKinsey 2016 (n=3,571) *Estimated by A.T. Kearney
Impact on Automotive Industry 10/26
ICE EV
Drive Motor
Electric Pump
Intake/
(HVAC)
Exhaust
Engine
Electric Steering System Battery Pack
Transmission
Source: POSRI * According to JAMA(Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association), among 30,000 parts in a gasoline car,
6,900 engine parts, 2,100 powertrain parts and 2,100 electric components can be reduced when electrified
Changes in Supply Chain New Production Paradigm 12/26
Basic components
3D printing base frame
Preassembled,
Carbon fiber
consumer self-assembles
reinforced ABS
and finishes last process
Changes in Business Models 13/26
Transportation
Demand (VMT*) 74% 46% 0% 27%
15 30
24% 15 2%
Car Rental
High-Cap.
Others Taxi
Transport P2P Sharing
25% 30
2%
Source: Revolution of the automotive ecosystem, Roland Berger * VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled)
Changes in Car Design - Electrification 14/26
Al
Aluminum
Wheels Engine Castings, Closures AutoBody
Major
Steel Market
Poly
Polymer/ Ornaments Interior
Composite
Design, Frames
Emblems, Covers, Instrument Panels, Seat Covers, Transparent Plastics,
Housings, Bumpers Thermoplastics, Engineering Plastics Fiber-reinforced Plastics
Source: POSRI
Automotive Materials Race 17/26
Poly BMW i3 EV
Polymer/ 315 kg
Composite CFRP applied on whole passenger cell
(Compared to LEAF)
Aluminum subframe, plastic closures
Source: Compiled from the media * CFRP: Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic
Automotive Materials Race - Steel 18/26
Source: WorldAutoSteel
Automotive Materials Race - Aluminum 19/26
Source: POSCO
Automotive Materials Race Plastic & Composites 20/26
Source: BMW
Automotive Materials Race Plastic & Composites 21/26
Economic Thermal
Pressing BMW
Repair Leipzig
Process
Maintenance 4x 2.5MW wind turbines
(Sectioning) Assembly
100% energy supply
CFRP parts sectioned Press, paintshop minimized
bonding process
Rooftop CFRP 10%
Recycled Energy use : -50%
Insurance, repair cost Thermoplastics 25%
Materials Water use : -70%
Aluminum frame 80%
CFRP Hood Valve Cover Nissan Tail gate Audi A8 Frontend Roof Assembly Nissan Battery Case
(17min. forming time) (BASF) (LyondellBasell)) (Lanxess) (SABIC)
Door trim Panel Front grill Ford Diesel System Seat pan Foam-filled frame
(Bayer) (BASF) (Dow)
Processing cost
Material cost
5.62 17.6
1.46 2.08
1.14 1.44 4.26
Fe Al Poly
Steel Aluminum CFRP
-35% -23%
Weight 328 kg 213 kg 164 kg
Plastic/Composite Intensive Price +$720 +$1,792
Aluminum, 10%
Zinc Castings, 0% Premium brands with over $50,000
Powder Metal, 1%
Al Battery pack cage, base frame and
Aluminum body in white with closures
1,812 kg/unit Other Metals, 0%
Tesla Model S
Plastics/Polymer
Regular Steel, Composites, 8% Battery weight 540kg out of 2,200kg (25%)
35%
Rubber, 5%
Building full supply chain is key
Coatings, 1% Poly Sports cars, luxury cars
Textiles, 1%
Polymer/
Glass, 2%
Fluids and
Composites BMW i-Series
Other, 2% Lubricants, 6%
Source: American Chemistry Council 2015 *LDV(Light Duty Vehicle): Passenger cars, pickups, SUV
Automotive Materials Race Multi-material solutions 25/26