A Guide To Middle East Politics in 2014

5/8/2014 A guide to Middle East politics in 2014 | World | The Guardian
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A guide to Middle East politics in 2014
From Egypt to Syria, Palestine to Iraq, the hopes of the Arab spring lie in tatters. And with the
latest conflict in Gaza, the Middle East is more violent, volatile and complex than ever
A Yemeni boy painted with the colours of his national flag. Photograph: Muhammed Muheisen/AP
Ian Black
Monday 4 August 2014 18.56 BST
Its complicated and extremely violent in the Middle East these days. Iraq is in a
state of war again after Sunni jihadis conquered swaths of territory. US troops
though now only advisers are back in Shia-ruled Baghdad. In Syria, next door,
the conflict rages on bleeding into Iraq across a desert border drawn up during the
first world war and now effectively erased by the Islamic State (Isis), the
triumphant advocates of a seventh-century Islamic caliphate. Palestine, the
regions oldest conflict, has exploded spectacularly with the latest bout of fighting
between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
In Damascus, Bashar al-Assad has the upper hand. But large areas of the country
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/04/-sp-middle-east-politics-2014-egypt-syria-palestine-iraq-gaza 1/17
remain beyond his control. The US, Britain and their allies shied away from overt
intervention even when Assad crossed Barack Obamas red line and used
chemical weapons against his own people. Sunni Saudi Arabia and its autocratic
Gulf allies want the Syrian president to go, and have armed the rebels fighting him
though they fear blowback from Isis and al-Qaida. The Gulf states loathe Shia
Iran, supporting Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad as well as Assad. The UK and other
western countries fret about radicalised Muslims coming home from the
battlefields of the Levant.
Everywhere the hopes of the Arab spring have been bitterly disappointed. Egypt,
the most populous Arab country, is ruled by Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi, another repressive
soldier-turned-president. Tahrir Square is a fading memory. The Gulf monarchs
maverick pro-Islamist Qatar apart are using their oil wealth to bankroll counter-
revolution at home and abroad.
Abdel Fatah al-Sisi. Photograph: Amr Dalsh/Reuters/REUTERS
In a landscape dominated by generals, autocrats and extremists, with the

mainstream Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood repressed or discredited, political
space is shrinking. Elections have been held in Syria and Egypt but these have
hardly been shining examples of democracy and pluralism. Al-Qaida, hammered in
its Afghan and Pakistani hideouts, seemed a spent force when Osama bin Laden
was gunned down by US special forces three years ago. But now the jihadis are
back from Mosul to Mali. Turkey, Israel and Iran are the only strong states in the
region, laments one veteran leader. The Arabs are hells firewood.
Internationally, strategies are being re-thought and alliances shifting as enemies

enemies become friends, however temporarily. Allies on one issue back different
sides on others. The US and Iran, at loggerheads for 35 years, share some interests
in Iraq but remain at loggerheads over Syria and Israel. The intractable conflict
between the nuclear-armed Jewish state and the still stateless Palestinians is
experiencing another vicious bout of carnage in Gaza. More than 1,800 Palestinian
dead, the majority civilians, is one consequence of years of missed opportunities
and the failure of US efforts to revive a long-moribund peace process. The old idea
of a two-state solution has few believers these days. But military might is no
answer either. The coming months will tell whether a landmark nuclear deal can
be struck between Washington and Tehran. Could that, as some hope, unlock the
door to wider change across the Middle East? Or is that wishful thinking in the face
of a chaotic and bloody reality?
Iraq
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Population: 33 million
The countrys prospects depend on the ability of its dysfunctional post-2003

political system to become more inclusive after its Shia prime minister, Nouri al-
Maliki, provoked an angry backlash from minority Sunnis who have never got used
to losing the status they enjoyed under Saddam Hussein. Isis is cruel and sectarian,
its extremism fuelled by anti-Sunni discrimination. It is provoking a counter-
reaction by Shia militias linked to Iran. But Sunni tribes and Kurds have also been
fighting back. The fall of Mosul and the capture of disputed Kirkuk have given the
already autonomous Kurds, now exporting oil independently, a far stronger
position. The division of Iraq into Kurdish, Sunni and Shia areas is a likely outcome.
But formal partition will likely mean death on an epic scale.
Backs: Assad.
Against: Isis, Saudi Arabia.

Watch: Maliki, Kurds.
Ashura celebrations in Khorramabad, Iran. Photograph: KeystoneUSA-ZUMA/Rex Features
Iran
Iran is more powerful in Iraq than the US these days. General Qassem Suleimani of
the Quds force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards rushed to Baghdad to organise
its defences against Isis. Iranians talk a lot about defending the historic Iraqi Shia
shrines of Karbala and Najaf and loathe the Sunni extremists they blame the
Saudis for backing. Hopes for internal change in the Islamic Republic have risen
under President Hassan Rouhani but domestic politics are complex, with the
supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling the shots on national security
issues, including the contentious nuclear programme. Tehran attaches huge
strategic value to its relationship with its well-armed Lebanese ally Hezbollah,
deployed in support of Assad as well as in the front line against Israel.
Backs: Assad, Maliki, Hamas.
Against: Isis, Israel, Saudi Arabia.
Watch: Nuclear talks.
Syria
Assad, who hails from the countrys Alawite minority, was elected for a third
presidential term in June. He has good reason to see things going his way in the
fourth year of the war. Government forces, backed by Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia
militiamen, have the upper hand, controlling Damascus and a corridor to the coast
and the countrys largest city, Aleppo. But with an estimated 150,000 dead and
millions of Syrian refugees abroad or displaced at home, the economy is in ruins.
Isiss embryonic Islamic caliphate, straddling the border with Iraq, is likely to
continue to be a magnet for Sunni extremists. Fear of Isis has weakened western
support for Assads enemies and boosted his image as a bulwark against extremism.
The last UN envoy warned that Syria was becoming another Somalia.
Backs: Iran, Hezbollah, Maliki.
Against: Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, Israel.
Watch: Reduced western backing for rebels. Signs of Assads rehabilitation.
Palestinian children from the Mar Eias Batina refugee camp in Beirut, Lebanon. Photograph: Rex Features
Lebanon
Population: 5.9 million
A deeply fractured polity at the best of times, Lebanon has suffered in the wake of
the war in Syria and is hosting more than one million refugees. Hezbollahs defence
of Assad has exacerbated tension with the countrys Sunni community, with several
bomb blasts blamed on hardline groups.
Backs: No one too clearly because of the countrys ever-delicate internal political
balance.
Against: Israel.
Watch: Hezbollah.
Jordan
Jordan has taken in 600,000 Syrian refugees following on from waves of

displaced Palestinians and Iraqis in the past. The small, resource-poor but
staunchly pro-western monarchy has weathered the strains of the Arab spring more
successfully than others. Jordan discreetly allowed CIA training and Saudi arms to
cross the border into Syria. Its leaders fear the appeal of Isis to disaffected Sunnis
al-Qaida in Iraq was founded by the Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi but it has
the best intelligence service in the Arab world. Maintains peace treaty with Israel.
Backs: Saudi Arabia, Sisi.
Against: Assad, Isis.
Watch: Security responses to unrest.
A Turkish Kurd jumps over a fire during a celebration of Noruz, the Kurdish New Year, in Istanbul in 2011. Photograph: Mustafa
OzerAFP/Getty Images
Turkey
Turkey does not want a divided Iraq. Wary of attacks by Isis and worries about
Kurdish independence not least because of the effect on its own Kurdish minority.
The government kept quiet about the takeover of the nothern Iraqi city of Kirkuk by
the Peshmerga forces of the Kurdistan Regional Government. Turkey has important
energy interests in northern Iraq and has provided extensive backing for anti-Assad
rebels. Like Qatar it favours the Muslim Brotherhood elements of the Syrian
opposition. Has banned Jabhat al-Nusra, a Syrian jihadi group linked to al-Qaida
reflecting worries about blowback.
Backs: Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas.
Against: Assad, Sisi.
Watch: Reactions to Kurdish assertiveness.
Israel
Population: 7.8m
Operation Protective Edge targeted the rockets and terror tunnels of the Islamic
Resistance Movement, AKA Hamas, and killed more Palestinians than any previous
offensive in the Gaza Strip. Binyamin Netanyahus government backs settlement in
occupied territories and does not support an independent Palestinian state.
Emphasised turmoil of Arab spring to downgrade interest in peace settlement.
Fears a deal over Irans nuclear programme may threaten its own nuclear
hegemony. Opposes further arming of Hezbollah. Has peace treaties with Jordan
and Egypt but is losing support internationally, especially in Europe.
Backs: Sisi, Jordan, Assad, Saudis, Iraqi Kurds.
Against: Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Isis.
Watch: Attempts to further weaken Hamas. New settlement activity.
A Palestinian woman and two girls, at a UN-run school in Gaza, July 2014. Photograph: Mohammed Salem/Reuters
Palestine
Population: 1.8 million (Gaza); 2.7 million (West Bank)
The latest Gaza war has been a terrible reminder of untenable status quo. Prospects
for peace with Israel weakened by the Arab spring and divisions between PLO in
the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza, isolated by Israel and anti-Islamist military in
Cairo, and by chaos in Syria. Rapprochement with the PLO was a rare move
towards unity. Israel blamed Hamas for murder of three teenagers in the West Bank
and launched crackdown. Western-backed Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas
looks weak, with nothing to show for security cooperation with Israel. No peace
process for the first time in 20 years.
Backs: (PLO) all Arab states; (Hamas) Turkey, Qatar.
Against: (PLO) Israel; (Hamas) Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt.
Watch: Hamas-PLO unity moves; PLO quest for international recognition. Boycott
and sanctions campaign.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia (with Qatar, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates) funded Sunni rebels in
Syria and Iraq. Businessmen and clerics promoted Isis and Jabhat al-Nusra, but the
government is now coordinating with the US in backing only vetted non-jihadi
Islamist units. The dismissal of Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan
reflected a sharper counter-terrorist focus, sparked by fears of Afghan-style
blowback from returning fighters. Saudi citizens travelling to Iraq now face fines.
King Abdullah, 92, was horrified by the overthrow of Egypts Hosni Mubarak in
2011, and furious with Barack Obama. Saudis fear a deal over Irans nuclear
programme and being abandoned by a US pivoting to Asia. Accused of quietly
backing Israels war on Hamas.
Backs: Syrian rebels (not Isis), Sisi, Bahrain.
Against: Assad, Maliki, Iran, Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood.
Watch: Strains over royal succession. Counter-terrorist moves.
Bahrain
Western-backed Sunni monarchy, hosting US naval base, repressing island states

restive Shia majority despite professed committment to political reform. At the
heart of the regions sectarian fault line.
Backs: Saudi Arabia.
Against: Iran.
Watch: Unrest.
A jet ski race in Doha, Qatar. Photograph: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images
Qatar
Fabulously wealthy Gulf state uses Al Jazeera TV and support for Islamists to punch
above its weight with an independent foreign policy at odds with Saudi Arabia and
other Gulf neighbours.
Backs: Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas.
Against: Sisi.
Watch: Fence-mending with Gulf neighbours.
Yemen
Poorest country in the Arab world. Running out of water as well as oil. US drone
strikes, launched from Saudi Arabia, target al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula but
often kill innocents. Attempts to reach a ceasefire between Yemeni army and
Houthi rebels (said to be backed by Iran) failed. Tribal sabotage of the electrical grid
left the capital city Sanaa without fuel or electricity earlier this year, prompting
mass protests calling for the overthrow of the government.
Backs: Saudis.
Against: al-Qaida. Iran.
Watch: Fuel and food shortages. Drone strikes.
Egypt
President (formerly Field Marshal) Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi, elected in June, has vowed
to crush the Muslim Brotherhood and banned it as a terrorist organisation. His
military government overthrew democratically elected but unpopular Muslim
Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi, killing and imprisoning thousands. Egypt
emphasises commitment to crushing jihadis in Sinai, the strategically vital
peninsula bordering Israel. Maintains a peace treaty with Israel and keen for
continued US military aid. Receiving massive financial support from Saudis and
Emiratis. Accused of effectively backing Israel against Hamas.
Backs: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, Assad.
Against: Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Isis, Iran, Qatar.
Watch: Sisis grip on the economy. Relations with US.
A rebel soldier at a check point on the outskirts of Benghazi, Libya. Photograph: Rodrigo Abd/AP
Libya
Risks becoming a failed state three years after Nato-backed rebels overthrew
Muammar Gaddafi. Central government in Tripoli is unable to control hundreds of
militias, especially Benghazi-based jihadists of Ansar al-Sharia. Former general
Khalifa Haftar is waging a war of dignity against Islamists. Low turnout in
parliamentary elections; militia violence, as well as power, fuel and water
shortages disrupt daily life. Evacuation of US, UK and other foreign embassies
underline growing international alarm.
Backs: Sisi.
Against: Qatar.
Watch: Political dialogue between rival groups. Slide to civil war
Tunisia
Lone poster child for the success of Arab spring uprisings. Its deposed dictator, Zine
al-Abidine Ben Ali, lives in gilded exile in Saudi Arabia. The Islamist al-Nahda
party, close to the Muslim Brotherhood, stands out for accepting the need for
power-sharing with rivals and playing down interest in Sharia law. The political
system is still fragile, while polarisation and violence in Egypt and Libya make
Tunisias transition all the more difficult.
Backs: Algeria, Morocco, Libya.
Against: Jihadis.
Watch: Elections in October.
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5/8/2014 A guide to Middle East politics in 2014 | World | The Guardian

Abdel Fatah al-Sisi. Photograph: Amr Dalsh/Reuters/REUTERS

In a landscape dominated by generals, autocrats and extremists, with the

Internationally, strategies are being re-thought and alliances shifting as enemies

The countrys prospects depend on the ability of its dysfunctional post-2003

Against: Isis, Saudi Arabia.

Watch: Maliki, Kurds.

Ashura celebrations in Khorramabad, Iran. Photograph: KeystoneUSA-ZUMA/Rex Features

Backs: Assad, Maliki, Hamas.

Against: Isis, Israel, Saudi Arabia.

Watch: Nuclear talks.

Backs: Iran, Hezbollah, Maliki.

Against: Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, Israel.

Watch: Reduced western backing for rebels. Signs of Assads rehabilitation.

bomb blasts blamed on hardline groups.

Jordan has taken in 600,000 Syrian refugees following on from waves of

Backs: Saudi Arabia, Sisi.

Against: Assad, Isis.

Watch: Security responses to unrest.

Backs: Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas.

Against: Assad, Sisi.

Watch: Reactions to Kurdish assertiveness.

Backs: Sisi, Jordan, Assad, Saudis, Iraqi Kurds.

Against: Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Isis.

Watch: Attempts to further weaken Hamas. New settlement activity.

Backs: (PLO) all Arab states; (Hamas) Turkey, Qatar.

Against: (PLO) Israel; (Hamas) Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt.

Backs: Syrian rebels (not Isis), Sisi, Bahrain.

Against: Assad, Maliki, Iran, Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood.

Watch: Strains over royal succession. Counter-terrorist moves.

Western-backed Sunni monarchy, hosting US naval base, repressing island states

Backs: Saudi Arabia.

A jet ski race in Doha, Qatar. Photograph: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

Backs: Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas.

Watch: Fence-mending with Gulf neighbours.

Against: al-Qaida. Iran.

Watch: Fuel and food shortages. Drone strikes.

Backs: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, Assad.

Against: Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Isis, Iran, Qatar.

Watch: Sisis grip on the economy. Relations with US.

Watch: Political dialogue between rival groups. Slide to civil war

Backs: Algeria, Morocco, Libya.

Watch: Elections in October.

More on this story

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